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A New Split For Adam LaRoche

If you asked fantasy players to name a player who performed well in a split, the vast majority of them would name Adam LaRoche and his play in the second half of the season. True to form, LaRoche has a .323/.366/.570 line in the second half. Before the All-Star break, LaRoche had a .787 OPS.

But it is another split that is really making things interesting for LaRoche. For the first time in his career, LaRoche is punishing LHP. Coming into this season he had a .251 lifetime AVG versus southpaws. Only in 2007, when he hit .299, did LaRoche have a good AVG versus lefties. While he had decent to good ISOs versus southpaws, he batted .250 or less in five of his six previous seasons.

It is a different story in 2010. Overall he has a .327/.369/.602 line in 122 PA versus lefties. Since the All-Star break he is 18-44 (.409) with 4 2B, 3B, 2 HR and 10 RBIs against LHP. That works out to a .682 SLG and a 1.117 OPS.

Most of the damage came in one game against Jonathon Niese, when he had 2 HR and 6 RBIs. But LaRoche has also fared well against Jonathan Sanchez and Cole Hamels in this stretch and had big games against Scott Olsen and Ross Detwiler, too.

Lefties out of the bullpen are still having typical success versus LaRoche, as he is 4-17 against southpaw relievers since the break, without an extra-base hit or RBI. He is 0-3 against both Joe Thatcher and Oliver Perez.

We know in the aggregate that most splits have no predictive value. The most likely answer to LaRoche’s success this year versus southpaws is that it is merely an outlier in his performance and that he will regress towards his lifetime .784 OPS.

However, given LaRoche’s history of consistently performing well in the second half, fantasy players would be remiss not to track his performance versus lefties the rest of the season. If he adds hitting southpaws to his resume, LaRoche should move up from last year’s 219 ADP.


Dayan Viciedo’s Walk Rate

Monday night White Sox 3B Dayan Viciedo went 0-3. He now has 74 PA without a walk, the most by any player this year. Since 1901, the record for most PA without a walk is held by Hall of Fame pitcher Ed Walsh, who went 156 PA without a single base on balls. If we limit it to non-pitchers, the record is 148, set by the immortal Craig Robinson, who was a middle infielder for the Phillies in 1973.

Robinson is one of eight non-pitchers to amass over 100 PA in a season without drawing a walk, the most recent being Alejandro Sanchez, who accumulated 133 PA in 1985. Sanchez was actually the best hitter of this group, with a .707 OPS. The next highest mark was the .500 one posted by Robinson.

If the season ended Monday, Viciedo would rank 34th on the list of most PA without a walk (non-pitcher division). But while the vast majority of these players brought very little to the plate, Viciedo has a .297/.297/.500 line. Among players with a minimum of 50 PA, his .797 OPS ranks as the fourth-best mark.

In fact only five players since 1901 have completed a season with no walks and an OPS of .750 or greater. Here are some numbers on those guys:

Year Name PA OPS BABIP
1977 Dale Murphy 76 .842 .333
1966 Lee May 75 .840 .390
1948 Don Mueller 82 .827 .364
2010 Dayan Viciedo 74 .797 .328
1984 Victor Mata 76 .776 .379

It is certainly nice for a young player to be on a list with Murphy and May. Even Mueller had a 12-year career and a lifetime .296 AVG.

But while this list is interesting, there are at least two immediate problems trying to use it to forecast the future for Viciedo. First, 2010 is not over and there is still plenty of time for Viciedo to draw a walk. Second, since it has proven impossible to go even 200 PA and not draw a walk, our sample sizes are necessarily small.

So, let’s up the minimum PA level to 400 and instead of zero walks, let’s use a BB% of under 5 percent. Last year in the minors, Viciedo had a 4.3 BB% in Double-A and this year in Triple-A it was 3.1 percent. In the past three seasons, 64 players met these requirements and 22 had an OPS of .750 or above.

Year Name PA OPS BABIP Lifetime BABIP
2009 Miguel Tejada 674 .795 .318 .297
2009 Jose Lopez 653 .766 .270 .281
2009 Robinson Cano 674 .871 .324 .322
2009 A.J. Pierzynski 535 .755 .312 .299
2009 Miguel Olivo 416 .781 .306 .302
2009 Vladimir Guerrero 407 .794 .313 .317
2009 Ichiro Suzuki 678 .851 .384 .357
2008 Bengie Molina 569 .767 .285 .275
2008 Alexei Ramirez 509 .792 .294 .296
2008 Cristian Guzman 612 .786 .337 .306
2008 Jose Lopez 687 .764 .306 .281
2008 Clint Barmes 417 .790 .328 .284
2008 Mike Aviles 441 .833 .357 .326
2008 Corey Hart 657 .759 .293 .308
2008 Garret Anderson 593 .758 .314 .311
2008 Ryan Doumit 465 .858 .333 .301
2007 Kenji Johjima 513 .755 .289 .270
2007 Brandon Phillips 702 .816 .304 .287
2007 Mark Grudzielanek 486 .772 .337 .322
2007 Khalil Greene 659 .759 .274 .275
2007 Xavier Nady 470 .805 .318 .313
2007 Freddy Sanchez 653 .784 .328 .321

The vast majority of these are middle infielders, with 12 of our 22 listed above being either 2B or SS. Five more are catchers. Only five played at a non-premium defensive position and none of those were a 3B like Viciedo. Still, let’s look at those five players.

Guerrero – Known as a free swinger, Guerrero has a lifetime 8.6 BB% and 2009 is the only time in his career that his rate slipped under 5 percent.

Ichiro – Similar to Guerrero, Ichiro is consistently above a 5.0 BB%. Last year was the first time since his debut season in this country that Ichiro failed to reach that plateau. Lifetime he has a 6.3 percent mark.

Hart – Lifetime BB% of 6.7 and 2008 was a career low and the only time he fell below our 5.0 threshold. Hart’s OPS was 55 points below his lifetime mark this season.

Anderson – His 2008 BB% was right around his 4.7 percent career average. Six other times in his career, Anderson had at least 400 PA, a BB% less than 5 and an OPS greater than .749. His best year was 2003 when he had a 4.6 BB% and a wOBA of .371 and his best fantasy season was 2000 when he hit .286 with 35 HR and 117 RBIs.

Nady – A lifetime 5.9 BB%, Nady enjoyed one of the two best seasons of his career in a year where he had his lowest walk rate in seven seasons with at least 50 PA. Generally, he walked a little more and was less productive overall than he was in 2007.

The complete lack of walks we are witnessing from Viciedo this year is unusual but not unprecedented. Given the lack of walks, his overall production is quite impressive. Recent history shows Anderson as the best-case scenario for Viciedo. But even Anderson had better walk rates than Viciedo. In his last full season in the minors, Anderson had a 5.2 BB% and in 2,259 PA in the minors, Anderson had a 5.1 BB%. Viciedo has a 3.9 BB% in 795 PA in the minors to go along with his 0.0 mark in the majors.


Waiver Wire: August 9th

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Peter Bourjos – Anaheim Angels (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

It has been a rough go of it for Bourjos in his first go-round in the majors. Currently hitting a dismal .136, Bourjos has a .196 wOBA and just a 14 wRC+. The good news is that the top prospect got called up to play and is likely to hold on to his job long enough for his .158 BABIP to turn around. And when it does, Bourjos is likely an excellent source of SB. He had 32 SB last year in Double-A and notched 27 this year in Triple-A, where he also had a .364 BABIP, before getting the call to the majors.

Jed Lowrie – Boston Red Sox (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The injury to Dustin Pedroia has opened the door for regular playing time for Lowrie, who missed most of the 2010 season due to mononucleosis. While he has some pop, most of Lowrie’s fantasy value comes from a high AVG and he is currently batting .286 in 42 ABs. He played 26 games at SS last year and just passed the 10-game mark at 2B this year, so it is possible he has multi-position eligibility in your league.

Josh Thole – New York Mets (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The knock on Thole coming into the season was that he was not a good defensive backstop. Now he is the personal catcher for knuckleball pitcher R.A. Dickey, the hardest pitcher on the staff to catch. Some wondered if Thole, who chokes up on the bat more than any Mets player since Felix Millan, had enough power to hit in the majors but he already has two doubles and a HR this season. Playing time is a concern for Thole, but with Rod Barajas on the DL, more ABs have developed for the 23-year-old. Thole’s forte is AVG and he is hitting .323 in 62 ABs this season. Thole may only play two or three games per week, but that is an outstanding AVG, especially for those in leagues which start two catchers.


Week 19 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

STL – Chris Carpenter
NYY – A.J. Burnett
ATL – Mike Minor
KAN – Bryan Bullington

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
NYY – Dustin Moseley
KAN – Kyle Davies

After getting roughed up in back-to-back starts, Carpenter has ripped off five consecutive strong outings. In that span he is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA. He has 8 BB and 23 Ks in 38.1 IP and has allowed just 2 HR. Overall, Carpenter has a 2.91 ERA but both his FIP and xFIP are nearly a run higher. This is due in large part to a 79.6 strand rate. This is the third consecutive season that Carpenter has posted a LOB% of 75.0 or greater.

After a horrendous June, where he lost all five games he started, Burnett has gotten back on track. In his last six games, he is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA. Even with his recent string of better pitching, Burnett is still not racking up strikeouts like he has in the past. He has averaged 6.82 K/9 in his last six games, consistent with his 6.86 rate for the entire season. Burnett had his start pushed back due to a sore back, making him a two-start pitcher with two road games this week.

An injury to Kris Medlen and the almost non-existent usage of Kenshin Kawakami, which required a trip to the minors to build up arm strength, opened a spot in the rotation for Minor. The seventh overall pick in the 2009 Draft, Minor moves to the majors after going 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA at Triple-A. He had 12 BB and 37 Ks in 33.1 IP at Gwinnett.

Bullington has made five appearances for the Royals this season, all in relief. But he worked primarily as a starter in Triple-A, where he was 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA for Omaha. The first overall pick in the 2002 Draft, Bullington has not started in the majors since 2008. Lifetime he has made five starts in the majors and is 0-5 with a 7.15 ERA.


Interesting Week 19 Two-Start Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Phil Hughes – After starting the season 10-1, Hughes is just 3-3 in his last seven starts with a 5.58 ERA. He has been hurt with the long ball recently, and has allowed 9 HR in 40.1 IP. But the HR problem is almost exclusively at home. Of the 16 HR he has allowed this season, 15 of them have occurred in Yankee Stadium. Hughes has two road starts this week, including one against the Royals. His road ERA this year is 2.61 so make sure he remains active even despite his recent struggles.

Mike Leake – In his first 11 starts, Leake was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. In his last nine starts, he is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA. Over his last 53 IP, Leake has allowed 10 HR and 19 BB, compared to 28 Ks. In his first 73 IP, he surrendered just 4 HR. Nine of his 14 HR allowed have come at Great American Ball Park and Leake has two home starts this week. Slide Leake to the bench if at all possible.

Vin Mazzaro – In seven of his last eight games, Mazaro has hurled a Quality Start. He has a 4-2 record with a 3.10 ERA in that span. Most of that good pitching has come against sub-.500 teams but Mazzaro does get a game against the Mariners this week. Activate him this week, look for a good first start and then root for the Mr. Hyde half of Scott Baker to show up in Mazzaro’s second outing.

Vicente Padilla – Since returning from a two-month stint on the DL, Padilla is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA. In 60 IP he has 13 BB and 52 Ks. Yet he is owned in only 62 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is starting in just 38 percent. It’s a tough week for Padilla, with two East Coast road starts. His road splits are not pretty, but the majority of that damage came the first two games of the season, when he gave up 11 ER in 8.2 IP. Since he faces Kyle Kendrick and Mike Minor this week, the matchups are not awful so pick him up from the waiver wire and make him active.

Mike Pelfrey – In the beginning of the season, Pelfrey was riding high as the addition of a splitter helped him get off to a fast start, where he was 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a save in his first five outings. But since then he is 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA, or pretty much the same guy who went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 2009. In his last seven games, Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. He has 16 BB and 14 Ks in 30 IP in that span. This is an easy bench. And even if you think he is bound for regression – he does have a .468 BABIP in his last seven games – there are rumors that the Mets might skip one of his starts.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Price, Lester, E. Santana, J. Garcia, Dempster, Matsuzaka, Romero, Bumgarner, Baker, A. Sanchez, Jackson, Strasburg, Kennedy, F. Garcia, Zambrano, LeBlanc, Masterson, Matusz, Kendrick, Enright, Fister, Norris, Narveson, Galarraga, Parra, Arrieta, Moseley, Karstens, Davies, O’Sullivan.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to start. W, 3.29 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2 starts)
Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.53 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.184 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 6.10 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.839 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to sit. 3.00 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Silva – Advised to sit. W, 5.06 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.688 WHIP (2)


Can Juan Uribe Keep it Up?

In 2004, Juan Uribe posted a 108 wRC+ as a 24-year old. He had position eligibility at 2B, 3B and SS and was one of the most exciting middle infielders in fantasy baseball. Flash forward to 2010 and Uribe has a 107 wRC+ and position eligibility at the same three infield slots. But despite this strong play, Uribe is almost an afterthought in fantasy circles.

After the 2004 season, in which he batted .283 and hit 23 HR, Uribe declined in subsequent years. While the power remained strong, he saw his AVG drop to where he hit .235 and .234 in back-to-back seasons. After an injury-plagued 2008 season, which also saw Alexei Ramirez cut into his playing time, Uribe left the White Sox and signed with the Giants as a minor league free agent.

Uribe bounced back in a big way in 2009, posting a .289 AVG while rebounding from 7 HR in 2008 to 16 HR. This year the AVG has fallen off, currently .261, but he has nearly matched last year’s HR output with 15 HR in 380 ABs.

Last Player Picked has Uribe’s season worth $11. Among second baseman in mixed leagues he is tied for the 10th-best dollar value and among shortstops he ranks tied for sixth. All of this comes from a player who Couch Managers had with an ADP of 256.

For fantasy players, the key question is: Can Uribe keep it up, whatever “it” may be? In his breakout season of 2004, Uribe posted a .307 BABIP, certainly not a mark to turn anyone’s head. But from 2005 through 2008, Uribe had marks of .264, .240, .259 and .287 in the category, helping to explain the sub-par AVG. Last year he had his best season, with a BABIP of .325, and this year he checks in with a .274 mark.

If we look at his batted ball profile, we see Uribe has dramatically increased his GB%. In his last year with the White Sox, Uribe had a 34.4 GB%, a career-low, but basically in line with what he had done previously. Last year he had a 39.5 GB% and so far this year it is 43.5 percent. While Uribe is hitting fewer fly balls, he is compensating with a higher HR/FB rate. Last year he set a career-high with a 12.6 percent rate and this year Uribe has a 13.2 mark.

But while Uribe is poised to post career-best HR/FB rates in back-to-back years, it was not significantly better than his career marks. Lifetime he has a 10.1 HR/FB rate and he topped 12 percent in two seasons prior to 2009.

One other statistic of note is how well Uribe has hit in San Francisco. In his time with the Giants, Uribe has a .326 AVG in 344 ABs at home compared to a .233 AVG in 395 ABs on the road. Additionally, he has 18 HR at home compared to 13 in road parks.

Uribe is a free agent following the 2010 season. The Giants already have 2B Freddy Sanchez under contract for 2011 and hold a club option on SS Edgar Renteria. UZR shows Uribe as a good fielder at 2B in his two years with the Giants, but below average at SS.

Regardless of where he signs, Uribe should still be a good power option in the middle infield for 2011. But fantasy owners may be disappointed with his AVG, especially if he leaves San Francisco. While it is normal for BABIP and AVG to fluctuate wildly year to year compared to other fantasy stats, Uribe’s career marks in those categories do not show someone to count on to be a plus performer.

Still, even with just a fair mark in AVG, Uribe should be a valuable fantasy player due to his power, as MI who can hit 20 HR do not grow on trees. In 2009, only 14 players with MI eligibility hit 20 HR. Updated ZiPS projects Uribe to finish with 20 HR in 2010.


Hot July Fantasy Hitters

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of July.

10. Andres Torres .317-7-20-23-5

An injury to Mark DeRosa opened playing time for Torres earlier this year and he has seemingly claimed a permanent spot in the Giants’ outfield. Torres has dwarfed preseason expectations, as he outhomered his ZiPS projection in July alone. His overall numbers this past month are very similar to Aramis Ramirez but a 5-0 edge in SB gives Torres the nod.

9. Mark Teixeira .344-8-26-25-0

Remember when Teixeira looked washed up in April? Since May 1st, he has been the Teixeira of old, being a force in four fantasy categories. This is the second time in three months Teixeira made this list, as he was also mentioned in the May edition.

8. Joey Votto .362-9-17-24-1

Four players hit 9 HR in July and Votto had the fewest RBIs. The other three averaged 22.3 RBIs.

7. Josh Hamilton .418-5-17-17-1

It is not a big surprise to see Hamilton on this list but doing it with below average HR and RBI totals and the third-best AVG in the month is a bit unusual. The top fantasy hitter in June, Hamilton had the power numbers that month that he lacks here in July. But no one is complaining about this line.

6. Miguel Cabrera .398-6-23-17-0

He leads the American League in RBIs and is second in both AVG and HR. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish the year the same way, with a comfortable 13-RBI lead over Alex Rodriguez but finishing second to Josh Hamilton in AVG and second to Jose Bautista in HR.

5. Aubrey Huff .367-8-23-25-2

The Giants went 20-8 in the month of July and with two of their hitters being the top fantasy hitters in the month it is not a big surprise. The .367 AVG that Huff produced was the third highest for him in any month in his career. He batted .402 in July of 2008 and .385 in August of 2004.

4. Jose Bautista .347-11-29-20-1

Bautista is having such an amazing year that it is hard to remember how awful he was in April when he hit just .214 for the month. Actually, Bautista has been hot every other month, with big production in May and July and Mendoza-like production in April and June.

3. Buster Posey .417-7-24-20-0

If there were position adjustments, Posey would be an easy top pick for best hitter. Hopefully you did not trade him in Week #13.

2. Carlos Gonzalez .382-9-22-20-4

The Venezuelan native has been involved in two high-profile deals in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal and then Oakland to Colorado in the Matt Holliday deal. I think it’s safe to say he will be in Colorado for the foreseeable future.

1. Delmon Young .434-6-30-17-1

What kind of odds could you have gotten in Vegas before the season that Young would be the top fantasy hitter in a month? Generally considered a bust since arriving in the majors, the top overall pick in the 2003 Draft is justifying the hype. He led all major leaguers in AVG and was second in RBIs in July.

Honorable Mention – Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, Angel Pagan, Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks.


Waiver Wire: August 2nd

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Barry Enright – Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

He began this year repeating Double-A, which is generally not something you want a 24-year old to be doing. However, Enright dominated in his second go-round in Mobile, as he regained his strikeout rate (8.0 K/9) and did even better limiting walks (1.4 BB/9). But instead of going to Triple-A, Arizona called him up to replace Dontrelle Willis in the rotation. Enright has been solid, with 2 W and a 6.31 K/9 in six starts. His ERA is a nifty 2.78 but both his FIP (3.90) and xFIP (4.68) paint a different picture. The past three seasons in the minors, Enright has a 0.9 HR/9 ratio and this year he has a 0.76 major league rate, so perhaps his talent level is closer to his FIP, which would make him worthwhile. Enright is not a star but he has a chance to give fantasy owners a league average ERA, something not many starters hanging around the waiver wire in August can do.

Logan Morrison – Florida Marlins (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Chris Coghlan going on the DL, the Marlins called up Morrison to become their starting left fielder. With the trade of Jorge Cantu, Morrison has a good chance to stick around even when Coghlan returns, as Coghlan is a former infielder. Morrison has gotten off to a poor start but he is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is unlikely to continue with a .214 AVG. Morrison will not offer much in SB and he does not have typical power for a 1B. But he is a pure hitter and those in leagues that count OBP should definitely pick up Morrison for the remainder of the season.

Brett Wallace – Houston Astros (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

The 13th player selected in the 2008 Draft, Wallace is now with his fourth organization. Normally that is not a very good sign, as teams generally do not trade top prospects. But at least some of the concern surrounding Wallace was his defensive position and now he is primed to take over as the Astros first baseman. Wallace brings power potential and anyone on the wire who can produce HRs is always a welcome sight. He hit 18 HR in Triple-A this season. Wallace is not the overall hitter that Morrison is but if you are in search of power, he is the better choice for 2010.


Week 18 Two-Start Pitchers

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 18. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Trevor Cahill – Yes, his peripherals do not match his ERA, thanks mainly to his league-leading .213 BABIP. But he has a 2.19 ERA in eight games at McAfee Coliseum this week and Cahill has two home starts this period, including one against the Royals. Continue to ride Cahill this week.

Livan Hernandez – No one figured Hernandez would be able to keep it up this late in the season. But thanks to his lowest BABIP (.282) in six years and his lowest HR/FB rate (5.4%) since we have the data in 2002, Hernandez has given the Nationals a chance to win each time he pitches. But the veteran has done much better at home this season, where he has an ERA a full run lower than his road mark. With Hernandez and the Nationals having two West Coast road games this week, bench Hernandez for this period.

Derek Lowe – In his last six starts, Lowe is 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Even more surprising is that Lowe is having trouble with the gopher ball, having allowed 6 HR in 34 IP in this stretch. While Lowe does have two home starts this week, his ERA at Turner Field is 4.15 for the season. Move him to the bench until he works his way out of his current funk.

Brett Myers – A pitcher with a lifetime 3.89 xFIP, Myers has a 3.78 mark in the category in 2010. However, his ERA is 68 points beneath that mark, which helped earn Myers a contract extension from the Astros. The veteran has really enjoyed pitching in Minute Maid Park this year, where he is 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. With two road starts this week, give Myers a spot on the bench.

Jason Vargas – Poor run support has hurt Vargas all year long, but especially in his last nine starts. Only once in that span did the Mariners provide him with more than three runs. But the lefty has given Seattle a chance to win on a regular basis this year. And at Safeco Field he is 5-2 with a 2.23 ERA. Vargas has two home starts, so make sure to activate him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, J. Santana, T. Hudson, Gallardo, Pavano, Latos, Lackey, Lewis, Burnett, Beckett, Lilly, J. Sanchez, Buehrle, Kuroda, Richard, Morrow, Wood, Carmona, Saunders, Wells, Westbrook, Duensing, Porcello, Hellickson, Guthrie, Olsen, Cook, Maholm, Lopez, Bannister, Ohlendorf, Bell, West.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 16 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 2.13 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.868 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.03 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.675 WHIP (2)
Jurrjens – Advised to start. W, 3.21 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)
Pineiro – Advised to sit. 9.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 2.167 WHIP (1)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2 W, 3.46 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.923 WHIP (2)


Week 17 Two-Start Pitchers

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 17. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Jorge de la Rosa – After being lit up in his first two outings since missing two-and-a-half months with a finger injury, de la Rosa had a strong outing his last start, going 6 IP with 8 Ks in a no-decision. With home starts against the Pirates and Cubs, look for de la Rosa to bounce back into the win column this week.

Jon Garland – Regression has hit for Garland, as the early-season ERA which hovered around 2.00 is now up to 3.61, thanks to back-to-back month of ERAs over 5. But Garland still enjoys a big home/road split. He is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at Petco, where has both of his starts this week. Get Garland off the bench and into your lineup.

Jonathon Niese – In his last three starts, Niese has a 3.20 ERA with 18 Ks in 19.2 IP but is 0-2. He has had some gopher ball troubles in that span, allowing 5 HR during that stretch. But he has two home outings, where he has allowed just 4 HR in 55.2 IP. Niese has been pitching very well, and if he can avoid serving up homers, he should be able to come away with a Win this week to support his strong showing in the other categories.

Max Scherzer – Since returning to the majors on May 30th, Scherzer is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA with 74 Ks in 63.2 IP. However, all three of his losses in that span have come on the road, where he has both starts this week. With visits to Tampa Bay and Boston on tap for Scherzer, you may want to remove him from your lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Carlos Silva – On July 6th, Silva picked up the win to up his record to 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA. But in his last two starts (one home, one road) he has allowed 11 ER in 2.1 IP, raising his ERA nearly a full run, no easy feat in the middle of July. Silva has had trouble with the gopher ball this year on the road, where he has allowed 5 HR in 42.2 IP, which has led to a 4.22 ERA away from Wrigley. This week he goes to Colorado and Houston. It does not seem like the week for Silva to get back on track, so keep him on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.
F. Hernandez, J. Johnson, Sabathia, Greinke, Liriano, Danks, Lee, Cain, Strasburg, Hamels, Nolasco, Weaver, Hanson, Garza, Vazquez, Floyd, Zito, Billingsley, Buchholz, J. Garica, Shields, Pineiro, Arroyo, Hammel, Wolf, G. Gonzalez, Blanton, Westbrook, Millwood, Duke, Chen, R. Lopez, Bergesen, Rowland-Smith, Wright.

Because of the All-Star break and no two-start pitchers, there is no update on how my picks went two weeks ago.