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Two-Start Pitchers: Week 8

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Bronson Arroyo – After a solid April, Arroyo has hit the skids here in May. He has a 4.61 ERA despite a .247 BABIP. Arroyo has managed that feat by allowing 6 HR in 27.1 IP. This week he goes on the road to Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Braves are tied for second in the National League with 47 HR and while the Phillies are not the power-hitting club they’ve been in the past, Citizens Bank Park is still a homer-friendly venue. Put Arroyo on the bench this week.

Jhoulys Chacin – Fantasy players are not completely on the Chacin bandwagon and it’s hard to understand why. He’s hurled a Quality Start in seven of his nine games this season, including the last five. He’s fourth in the league in GB% and has a strong 7.80 K/9. And if that’s not enough, he checks in with a fine 1.12 WHIP. Chacin has two home starts this week and he has a 1.80 ERA after five games in Coors Field this year. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Jorge de la Rosa – Much like his teammate listed above, de la Rosa is having a strong season yet is not considered a must-start by the fantasy crowd. Previously, walks have been a big problem but this year de la Rosa has a solid 3.18 BB/9. Last year he was victimized by the gopher ball, but in 2011 de la Rosa has kept the ball in the park and has allowed 4 HR in 56.2 IP. With two home starts this week, where he is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA, feel confident in putting him in your lineup.

Jeremy Hellickson – In his last five starts, Hellickson is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.121 WHIP. He’s not striking out batters at last year’s high rate, but his 6.35 K/9 is more than acceptable when it comes along with those other numbers. It should be noted that he is outperforming his peripherals, especially his xFIP which checks in at 4.26, over a full run higher than his 3.18 ERA. Still, I like Hellickson’s chances to continue his strong pitching this week.

Jonathon Niese – A poor start to the season leaves Niese available in two-thirds of CBS Sports leagues. But in his last six starts he his 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Overall, Niese is using his curve ball more in 2011 and the results have been better with both his hook and fastball according to Pitch Type Values. Niese gets a bunch of ground balls (49.4%) and this year he is getting a large number of infield pop-ups (13.2%). It’s not the greatest matchups for Niese this week, with a road start in Chicago and a home game against the Phillies. Still, with his strong pitching lately, he makes a solid streaming option this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Verlander, Weaver, Kershaw, Beckett, Hamels, Nolasco, Jurrjens, Gallardo, Cain, Britton, Romero, Buchholz, Cueto, Ogando, Masterson, Lohse, Dempster, Norris, Colon, Danks, McCarthy, Ross, Vargas, Pavano, Gorzelanny, Litsch, Blanton, Duffy, Moseley, Coke, Saunders.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 6 pitchers and how they fared.

Jackson – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7 IP. 0 ER
Latos – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 5 ER
Lilly – Advised to start. W, 9 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Liriano – Advised to sit. 1 K, 12.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 IP, 4 ER
Morrow – Advised to start. W, 14 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER


Week 7 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 7 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Lincecum, Scherzer, Pineda, Zambrano, Tomlin, Liriano, Davies.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Cain, Masterson, Duensing, Vargas, Coke, O’Sullivan and Coleman.

The new starters include guys you are either definitely going to start or guys that have already been covered recently. So, let’s take a look at Kyle Davies, who is owned in two percent of CBS Sports leagues.

As if that was not enough of an indication of what type of pitcher Davies is, Craig Brown at Royals Authority recently wrote an article in which he concluded: “Davies is the worst starting pitcher in the history of the game.”

With that as our backdrop, let’s point out something that Davies has done well this year. His strikeouts are slightly up and his walks are down a considerable amount, leading to a career-high 2.07 K/BB ratio. Davies always had good minor league strikeout numbers (620 Ks in 642 IP) but had trouble in the majors because his fastball has little life, despite its velocity.

Without overwhelming stuff, Davies is more hittable than an average major league starter. He has a lifetime .316 BABIP and this year that mark sits at .364 after 40.2 IP. He also has a below-average 63.1 LOB%. Those two reasons go a long way in explaining a 4.55 xFIP, which is below average for a SP in 2011, but hardly what we would expect from a contender for the worst pitcher ever.

Another interesting thing to consider is that Davies has a significant home/road split so far in 2011. He has a 4.58 ERA and a 2.40 K/BB ratio at home this year compared to a 9.00 ERA and a 1.89 K/BB ratio on the road.

This week Davies has home starts against Cleveland and St. Louis. He’s squared off twice against the Indians already this season, hurling a Quality Start when he faced them in Kansas City (6 IP, 2 ER 0 BB, 7 K) and then getting bombed (3.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 HR) when the venue was Progressive Field. The Indians are not the same team that batted around Davies the last time they saw him. In 13 games since their four-HR game versus the KC hurler, the Tribe is averaging four runs per game, down nearly a run from their overall season mark.

However, the Cardinals lead the National League with a 5.25 runs-per-game average.

By no means is this a recommendation to pick up Davies for his two starts this week. But hurlers with two home starts are always interesting and Davies has stronger peripherals than his overall ERA would indicate. Keep an eye on him this week and possibly keep him in mind as a potential streaming option in the future if he holds his own in Week 7.

Last week’s Sunday look was at Mike Pelfrey, who ended up pitching just once this past week and put up the following fantasy line:

W, 2 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, QS


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 7

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Jon Garland – After getting roughed up in his first start of the season, Garland has hurled four straight Quality Starts. One thing especially interesting about Garland this year is his batted ball profile. Typically a ground ball pitcher, Garland set a career-high with a 51.9 GB% last year. After five games in 2011, he has a career-low 36.8 GB%. Yet his HR/9 of 1.13 is essentially his career average. He has a home start against the Brewers and then goes on the road for his first start in U.S. Cellular since leaving the White Sox after the 2007 season. The Brewers are less potent on the road (.609 OPS) than they are at home (.852 OPS) and the White Sox are a below-average offensive team this year, so see if Garland is available in your league to stream this week.

Matt Garza – The overall fantasy numbers (strikeouts excepted) are nothing special for Garza this year but he has been pitching much better than his record shows. His xFIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and his FIP is even better. In his last five games, Garza has four Quality Starts and a 2.90 ERA. The matchups are not overly favorable to Garza this week, with two road starts, including one in an AL park, but he has been pitching well so do not be afraid to put him in your lineup this week.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Fantasy leaguers still consider Jimenez a must-start after last year’s sterling performance. But the truth is that Jimenez has not been good so far in 2011. It looked like he might be finally turning the corner with his start against the Giants in the first week in May but then he failed to get out of the fourth inning last time out against the Mets. His K/9 is better than last season and his BABIP is virtually identical to 2010. But Jimenez has a 6.67 BB/9 and is being victimized by the long ball, with 4 HR in 29.2 IP. He needs a spot on your bench until he shows something more.

Rick Porcello – The beginning of 2011 looked ugly for Porcello, who allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, with 4 BB and 6 Ks. But since then he’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start and has a 3.0 K/BB ratio, with 21 Ks in 31.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both close to his actual ERA of 3.67. Porcello is throwing more changeups this year but otherwise appears the same pitcher he’s typically been. It’s just that the results are better. With one home start and an Interleague game in Pittsburgh, the matchups are decent enough for him this week, so get him in your lineup.

Edinson Volquez – First off, if you have not already read it, immediately check out Cistulli’s piece on Volquez, which helps explain why a guy with great stuff is getting horrible results. Unfortunately, while there may be some reason for optimism for Volquez, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a walk rate that high. Combine it with an elevated HR rate and it adds up to a guy who should be on your bench at this point in time.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

F. Hernandez, Lee, Hanson, Price, Johnson, J. Garcia, Cain, Shields, Marcum, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Anderson, Burnett, Nolasco, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, Kuroda, Britton, Lewis, W. Rodriguez, Jackson, Lowe, Baker, Myers, Bailey, Stauffer, Zimmermann, Wolf, Duensing, Drabek, Lackey, Pineiro, Oswalt, Nova, Harrison, Pelfrey, Richard, Matsuzaka, Morton, Niese, Vargas, Westbrook, Coke, Litsch, Chatwood, Maholm, Lannan, Carrasco, Tillman, Galarraga, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, Coleman, Mortensen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 5 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 4 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
Hernandez – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 2.118 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Jurrjens – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.93 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 17.18 ERA, 2.182 WHIP, 3.2 IP, 7 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 2.35 ERA, 0.391 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 2 ER


Week 6 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Beckett, T. Hudson, Pelfrey, Blackburn and Sonnanstine.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Price, Lester, Hanson and Liriano.

Of the new starters let’s look at Mike Pelfrey. The good news is that Pelfrey has pitched well in two of his last three starts. The bad news is that he still has a 6.06 ERA and both of his ERA estimators are over 4.50, higher than his last three seasons.

Pelfrey’s game plan has always been to pound the ball low in the strike zone. Last year he added a splitter to his arsenal, which already included a sinker. But this year he has gotten away from that style of pitching and the result is a career-high 40.9 FB%. In his last three starts, Pelfrey has 29 FB and 23 GB.

Last year when Pelfrey won 15 games, he really took advantage of his home park. He was 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in Citi Field and 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA in road parks. This year sees a similar big split. Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at Citi Field and 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA in road parks.

This week, Pelfrey has road starts in Colorado and Houston. While neither park is playing as a strong offensive park so far in 2011, both have been hitter-friendly in the past. Given Pelfrey’s tendency to struggle away from Citi Field, it should be an easy decision to leave him on the bench this week.

Last week’s Sunday look was Jorge de la Rosa and the advice was to start him despite the two road starts. Here was his combined line for his starts against the Diamondbacks and Giants:

12 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, 13 Ks, 0 W, 2 QS


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 6

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Edwin Jackson – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose peripherals from last year more closely matched what he’s done this year than Jackson. In 2010, Jackson had a 3.86 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP. This year the respective numbers are 3.83 and 3.71. Last year Jackson’s ERA was three-quarters of a run higher than his xFIP and this year it’s a half run higher than that. In 2011 he’s either been very good or really bad. And (coincidentally or not) he’s been really good at the Cell and, well you can guess how he’s been on the road. This week he has two road starts, so leave him out of your lineup if you can.

Mat Latos – Before last year’s drafts, I thought fantasy players were overvaluing Latos and he went out and posted a 3.78 K/BB ratio along with a 77.4 LOB%. This year, with his season delayed by a shoulder strain, Latos has not been the same pitcher. His K/BB is down to 2.50, still an impressive number but not what it was a year ago. His velocity has dropped 1.7 miles per hour from last year. Latos is also allowing more fly balls than a season ago and his HR rate is up, too. This week he has road starts against the Brewers and Rockies, typically two good HR parks, although Coors is not playing that way so far this year. If you can, err on the side of caution this week with Latos.

Ted Lilly – It’s been a ho-hum start of the year for Lilly but the good news is that he does not have to face the Cubs this week. Two of his last three starts have been against his former team and Chicago put up 10 ER in 10.1 IP versus Lilly in those two games. Against the rest of the league he has a 3.67 ERA. The Pirates have the next-to-worst OPS (.618) versus LH starters in the National League this year. Lilly’s other opponent this week is the Diamondbacks, who are middle of the pack versus LHP (.702) but who are last in the league in away runs scored. Part of that is because Arizona has played only 11 road games to date but part of it is that Chase Field helps their overall numbers. With Lilly on the road against the Pirates and home against the Diamondbacks, make sure he’s in your lineup.

Francisco Liriano – Not many pitchers can throw a no-hitter on a night where they allow six walks, but that’s what Liriano did in his last outing against the punch-less White Sox. It had been a disappointing season for Liriano prior to the no-hitter. Now the question becomes if he can use that as a springboard to get his season back on track. His strikeouts (5.51 K/9) are at a career-low while his walks (6.61) are at a career-high. This week he faces the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Boston leads the AL in walks (123) while Toronto is fourth (113). Give Liriano the week off if you can.

Brandon Morrow – An inured forearm sidelined Morrow at the beginning of the year but he has come back and made three starts in the majors. Last year, Morrow finished on a high note, as in his final 15 games he had a 3.53 ERA with 112 Ks in 89.1 IP. This year he has a 3.06 ERA with an 11.72 K/9, with Quality Starts on the road versus Tampa Bay and Texas. This week he goes up against Detroit and Minnesota. Tiger batters have the second-most strikeouts in the American League, while the Twins score the fewest runs per game (3.07) of any club in the loop. Make sure Morrow is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Price, Lester, Hanson, Cahill, Carpenter, Billingsley, Wilson, Scherzer, Pineda, Chacin, Zambrano, Greinke, Tomlin, E. Santana, Correia, Marquis, Arrieta, Wood, F. Garcia, Vazquez, Hammel, Capuano, Blanton, Karstens, Davies, A. Rodriguez, Collmenter.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 4 pitchers and how they fared.

Burnett – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Drabek – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 2.160 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER
Harrison – Advised to start. 2 Ks, 21.24 ERA, 4.071 WHIP, 4.2 IP, 11 ER
D. Hudson – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 6 ER
Masterson – Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 5 ER


Week 5 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 5 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Weaver, Hamels, de la Rosa, Buchholz, E. Jackson, Dempster.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Oswalt, Tomlin, Rogers, Chatwood.

Of the new pitchers, let’s look at Jorge de la Rosa. After a strong finish to the 2009 season, where he was 15-3 over his final 22 games with a 3.93 ERA, many were predicting that de la Rosa was ready to become one of the top pitchers in the game. But a slow start in 2010, followed by a hand injury turned his 2010 campaign into a lost season.

Many fantasy players slept on de la Rosa, who had an ADP in the 160s prior to this season. For those fantasy players that kept the faith, de la Rosa has rewarded them with a fine start to the 2011 season, with a 4-0 record and a 2.61 ERA in April.

One of the big steps forward for de la Rosa this season is with his walk rate. With a career mark near 4.5 BB/9, de la Rosa has a sparkling 2.90 rate so far this season. And his improved command has not come with any dropoff in strikeouts, as his 8.42 essentially matches what he did in 2010 and is above his 8.00 lifetime mark.

In his last outing, de la Rosa had his best game of the year, as he allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP, with 0 BB and 9 Ks. He’s been lucky with his HR rate, but his 2.90 K/9 shows how well he has pitched.

He has two road starts this week, including one in Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, where he is 0-3 lifetime, but it is hard to imagine sitting him with how well he has been pitching so far in 2011.

Last week’s Sunday look was Jesse Litsch. The take away was to keep him on the bench this week because of his matchups but to monitor his peripherals to see if he was getting grounders and strikeouts. Here was his combined line for his starts against the Rangers and Yankees:

12 IP, 8 ER, 4 BB, 6 Ks, 20 GB, 16 FB


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 5

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 5.

R.A. Dickey – Last year’s feel-good story is off to a rough start this year, with a 1-3 record and an ERA nearly a full run higher than 2010. Walks have been a big problem for Dickey, as his 4.09 BB/9 is way above last year’s 2.17 mark. But after giving up 12 BB in his first 17.1 IP, Dickey has allowed just 3 BB in his last 15.2 innings. With home games against the Giants and Dodgers, look for Dickey to get back to last year’s results, where he was 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA at Citi Field, and get him into your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Last year, Hernandez got off to a hot start, which prompted Dave Cameron to call him: The Luckiest Man Alive. Regression hit in his final 21 starts (5-9, 4.48 ERA) and his overall numbers were what we would expect, save for a 5.8 HR/FB rate. Flash forward to this year and his 2011 numbers are similar to what he produced overall in 2010. His xFIP is nearly identical to what it was a year ago, but his ERA is 1.31 runs lower than his xFIP due mainly to a low HR rate. Here are the HR/FB rates for Hernandez the past five seasons, starting with 2007: 11.8, 10.7, 8.4, 5.8, 3.4.

Regression will hit Hernandez again this year, but the problem with regression is while we know it’s coming, we’re just not sure when. We do know that Hernandez faces two teams in the Phillies and Marlins this week that are below average in the National League in hitting homers. While Hernandez has had some trouble on the road this year, my feeling is that the good luck with HR will continue another week and I am going to have him in my lineup.

Jair Jurrjens – Since being activated from the disabled list, Jurrjens has been masterful in three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA. While that is accompanied by all of the unsustainable marks you would expect, like a 92.6 LOB%, one thing Jurrjens has impressed with and might be able to continue with going forward is his K/BB ratio. It currently sits at 2.80, thanks to a 2.05 BB/9. He goes up against the Brewers and Phillies, two teams that are below average in the NL drawing walks. Both teams are above average in scoring runs, so it certainly will not be an easy week for Jurrjens, but I like his chances.

Mike Leake – In a bit of unusual circumstance, Leake is 3-0 yet his xFIP (3.58) is lower than his ERA (4.40). In his second season in the majors, Leake has upped his K rate, going from a 5.92 K/9 a season ago to 7.63 this season. In his last three starts, Leake has 18 Ks in 20 IP. He’s pitched a Quality Start in four of his five games this year, stumbling only in a road game in Arizona. This week Leake squares off against the Astros and Cubs, two teams with a combined 19-30 record. Get the youngster into your lineup this week.

Josh Tomlin – A perfect five-for-five in Quality Starts, the previously unheralded Tomlin has been embraced by fantasy players, with ownership rates in CBS Sports leagues higher than Dickey, Hernandez and Leake. The righty Tomlin has an average fastball velocity of just 87.6, but throws four other pitches, does a nice job mixing them and has positive Pitch Type Values on all of his non-fastball offerings.

But while it has been fun to watch Tomlin come out of nowhere, he does have a .179 BABIP and a 91.7 LOB%. With two West Coast road starts this week against the A’s and Angels, this may be the time that regression shows up. Look for alternatives to Tomlin this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lester, Verlander, Haren, Beckett, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Gallardo, Lohse, Harang, Ogando, A. Sanchez, McClellan, Davis, Holland, Bumgarner, Guthrie, McCarthy, Colon, Buehrle, Rogers, Francis, Happ, Bedard, Penny, McDonald, Volstad, Chatwood, Gorzelanny, Ross, Saunders, Vogelsong, Bergesen, Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 3 pitchers and how they fared.

Beachy- Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.583 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.400 WHIP, 15 IP, 0 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 10 ER
Vargas – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 1.546 WHIP, 11 IP, 8 ER
Zambrano – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 13 IP. 6 ER


Week 4 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 4 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update:

F. Hernandez, Liriano, Young, Nova, Lannan, Maholm, Litsch

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Dickey, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn

Of the new pitchers let’s look at Jesse Litsch. Earlier this season, Litsch got caught up in a numbers game and was sent to the minors because he had an available option while Jo-Jo Reyes did not. Litsch had been in three starts before the demotion and pitched well in two of them. He made just one appearance for Triple-A Las Vegas and was pulled after only three innings to make sure he was available to pitch early this week for Toronto.

Litsch is not overpowering but he throws at least five pitches, generally has good control and gets lots of ground ball outs. In his three appearances in the majors this year, he’s even fanned 16 in 17.1 IP, although he’s allowed more walks than he usually does. But with his ERA below his career average, and his FIP and xFIP both below his current ERA, it’s a tradeoff that has worked well for Litsch, assuming he can keep it up.

He’s throwing strikes early, with an F-Strike% of 60.5 percent, which is a career best. Also, Litsch is setting a personal record with a 10.7 SwStr%. He’s done this with a change in his pitching pattern. Litsch has almost completely abandoned his curve ball, throwing more sliders and change-ups, instead.

Litsch rejoins the Blue Jays in time to make road starts in Texas and New York. It’s not the ideal way to get back to the majors and it is hard to recommend putting him in your lineup this week. But Litsch is a pitcher to monitor going forward. Check his peripherals in these two starts and see if he’s still getting ground balls and strikeouts.

The Yankees and the Rangers rank 1-2 in the American League in runs per game. Therefore, Litsch could give up a lot of runs this week and still be a pitcher worth adding if he holds his spot in the rotation and pitches well in other regards.

Last week’s Sunday night look was Wandy Rodriguez. He had 14 IP, 5 ER, 13 H, 16 Ks and a 1-1 record with a QS.


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 4

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 4.

A.J. Burnett – Despite being in the majors since 1999, Burnett has not thrown more than 39 games to any one catcher. He has 12 catchers who have caught at least 10 games of his in the majors. By far the worst of those was Jorge Posada, with whom Burnett had a 5.61 ERA. Russell Martin has caught all four starts by Burnett this year and he has a 3-0 record. Burnett’s ERA this year is an unimpressive 4.37 but he’s had some trouble with the gopher ball, as his xFIP checks in at 3.89. With two home starts this week, make sure Burnett is active.

Kyle Drabek – After opening the season with three straight strong starts, Drabek was knocked around (5.1 IP, 4 ER) in his last outing. This week he has road starts in Texas and New York, a tough go for anyone, much less a rookie. Drabek has a 5.63 BB/9 and has allowed 8 BB in his last 11 IP. The Rangers and Yankees are in the top four in the American League in runs scored and no pitcher can survive putting extra runners on base against those offenses. Move Drabek to the bench this week.

Matt Harrison – Shoulder injuries the past two seasons have kept Harrison from throwing many innings. A lack of success versus RHB has led to ERAs of 6.11 and 4.71, respectively, the past two years. But Harrison is healthy now and a new pitching approach has led to a very strong start. Last year, Harrison threw a slider 15 percent of the time and it was his worst offering, with a Pitch Type Value of -3.7, the worst of his four pitches. This year, he is throwing fewer sliders (8.5%) and more changeups (18%) and the results have been impressive. RHB have a .147/.238/.267 slash line in 86 PA this year. Last year RHB posted a .770 OPS against him. While his 1.88 ERA will undoubtedly go up, Harrison’s xFIP of 3.85 is nearly a run lower than his lifetime mark. Keep putting Harrison into your lineup.

Daniel Hudson – One of the early leaders in the biggest positive spread between his ERA (5.92) and his FIP (3.55), Hudson has been victimized this year by two things: a very low LOB% (53.0) and a high BB/9 (4.44). Last year Hudson had a 2.55 BB/9, so he is certainly capable of throwing more strikes. This week he squares off against the Phillies and Cubs, two teams that are below average in drawing walks. The Phillies are tied for 12th while the Cubs are 14th. Look for Hudson to break into the win column this week and keep him active.

Justin Masterson – Previously, Masterson has been a pitcher whose peripherals were much better than his actual results. But this year he has a 1.71 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. His lifetime xFIP is 4.00 so Masterson is pitching like he normally does but is just having much better results. A .256 BABIP without allowing a HR helps explain the difference. Masterson’s early success is unlikely to last all season. He still is murder on RHB while he struggles versus LHB. He goes up against the Royals and Tigers, who can stack their lineup with lefties. Give Masterson the week off if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Weaver, Cain, G. Gonzalez, J. Garcia, Nolasco, Buchholz, Lowe, Lewis, Garza, Floyd, Arroyo, Kennedy, Britton, Zimmermann, Narveson, Davis, Norris, Dickey, Hochevar, Rogers, Coke, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn, Morton, Garland, Moseley, Humber, Russell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 2 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 2.40 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4 ER, 15 IP
Correia – Advised to sit. 1 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 4 ER, 6 IP
Dempster – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.589 WHIP, 9 ER, 11.1 IP
McClellan – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 2 ER, 13 IP
Rogers – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 4.78 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 3 ER, 5.2 IP


Week 3 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 3 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update:

J. Sanchez, C. Wilson, W. Rodriguez, Rogers, Blanton, Westbrook, Carrasco, J. Gomez

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Carmona, Lewis

Of the new pitchers let’s look at Wandy Rodriguez. He has an ownership rate of 91 percent in CBS Sports leagues. However, he is off to a rough start, with an 0-2 record and a 7.31 ERA in three games. While his K rate is down, so too, is his BB rate. The end result is a 3.67 K/BB ratio, an outstanding mark. Rodriguez has allowed just one home run in 16 IP, so he is not being hurt by the gopher ball.

It all comes down to his BABIP which is at a head-shaking .417, the second-worst mark currently in the majors, trailing just Matt Garza. Rodriguez has been a solid pitcher in the past and it would be an easy assumption to make to put him in your lineup and wait for his BABIP to normalize.

However, you might want to sit him for another week.

Minute Maid Park has always been a hitter-friendly venue, but Rodriguez has actually fared much better historically at home than he has on the road. In his career he has a .585 winning percentage and a 3.48 ERA in Houston compared to a .381 winning percentage and a 5.12 ERA in road parks. In his lone road start this season, Rodriguez allowed 9 H and 7 ER in 4 IP.

In Week 3, Rodriguez has road starts in New York and Milwaukee. Rodriguez has but one start in Citi Field, but came out on the losing end with 8 H and 3 ER in 6 IP. He has 11 career starts in Miller Park and is 3-6 with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.641 WHIP in 60.1 IP.

Last week’s Sunday night look was Jeff Francis. He had 13.1 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 Ks and 2 QS.