In 2006 and 2007 J.J. Putz was one of the top closers in baseball. In those two years he notched 76 saves and struck out 186 batters in 150 innings while posting WHIPs under 1.000 each season. But injuries dogged him in 2008 as he suffered through a strained oblique and a hyperextended right elbow.

The velocity was there for Putz last year, but his control abandoned him. He averaged 95 mph with his fastball, which was a tick higher than it was in 2007, but his BB/9 jumped from 1.63 to 5.44 in 2008. The final month of the season offered hope for Putz, as he posted 13 strikeouts and two walks in eight innings.

Putz gave up a few more line drives last year (20.2 percent versus 17.0 percent in ’07) but his other numbers were right in line with what he did in his outstanding 2007 season. His arm is healthy, his velocity is there (PitchFX had him at 98.5 in his final game of the season) and there is no discernible difference in his skill set other than the walks.

Fantasy players should monitor his control over results in Spring Training. Assuming he shows no Steve Blass tendencies, Putz has a chance to be one of the most undervalued players on Draft Day next season. There are trade rumors surrounding him this off-season, but that has more to do with the value of a top-flight closer on a 101-loss team than any issues regarding his health. Regardless of which team he ends up with, Putz should be one of the top three-to-five closers taken.

Daniel Murphy entered the 2008 season not even among the Mets’ top 10 prospects according to Baseball America. Prospect maven John Sickels gave him a “C” grade but called him a sleeper. Yet Murphy surprised the experts, as he rocketed to the majors where he posted a .313/.397/.473 slash line in 131 at-bats. In 2009, Murphy is viewed as a player to supplement the team’s core of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright. The only question is where he will play.

A natural third baseman, Murphy saw the bulk of his playing time in left field for the Mets last season. This year he’s playing second base in the Arizona Fall League and is slated to play left field later in the year when he plays Winter Ball in Puerto Rico.

An .870 OPS bat will play anywhere in the field. But Murphy did post a .386 BABIP last year. He also struck out in 21.4 percent of his at-bats. Sickels praised Murphy for his line drive swing and he lived up to that reputation, with a LD% of 33.3, which was greater than his FB% of 25.5 for the Mets.

Murphy’s value goes through the roof if he is the team’s starter at second base on Opening Day. However, that seems unlikely at this point. Still, he will be a nice end-game acquisition on Draft Day. Yes, the BABIP was high in the majors, but so was the strikeout rate. At Double-A he fanned just 46 times in 357 at-bats. If his strikeout rate drops closer to his career minor league rate of 12.1 percent, a .300 average is not out of the question. Murphy has double-digit HR potential and his R/RBIs should be above-average in the team’s strong lineup.

The best-case scenario is Murphy claims the team’s starting second base job and bats second in the lineup. He could post a .300-12-70 line with 95 runs scored batting behind Reyes and in front of Wright and Beltran. In the more likely outfield batting seventh scenario, Murphy’s runs would take a big hit but he would compensate with a few more RBIs.

Usually when a player adds 50 points of OPS to his ledger he sees an increase in his fantasy value. But Nick Markakis saw his OPS go from .847 to .897 and lost nearly $4.00 in production in 2008 according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Markakis saw the reduction due to a 25-point drop in RBIs and a net loss of eight steals. Still, his 136 OPS+ ranks 19th among all players in their age-24 season since 1990 and marks a player that still has room for growth.

Most of Markakis’ OPS jump came thanks to an increase of 38 walks. His BB% surged to 14.3 percent, the 13th-best mark in the majors. None of his other peripherals changed a significant amount, although his FB% dropped from 37.4 percent to 32.9 percent.

Given his track record over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis is a decent bet to post a .300 average with 100 runs and RBIs. The question is what he can give owners in HRs and SBs. His 18 stolen bases in 2007 was a professional best for Markakis and since he was successful on just 10 of 17 attempts last year it is unlikely he will be a threat to steal 20 bags in 2009.

His age-based comps at baseball-reference.com show a mixed bag, with four of the 10 players eventually having at least one 30-homer season in their career. But it’s a depressing list for a player with broad-based skills like Markakis, with early flameouts like Ben Grieve, Ellis Valentine and Steve Kemp on the list.

In 2008, 28 players hit 30 or more home runs and only two had a FB% like Markakis of less than 35 percent – Josh Hamilton and Carlos Delgado. Hamilton had a HR/FB rate of 19.2 percent while Delgado had a 23.3 percent mark in the category. Markakis had a 12.6 percent rate. If he is going to take the next step and become a 30-homer guy, Markakis will have to hit more flyballs and/or hit a greater percentage out of the park. It seems a tall order given his track record in those categories.

Everyone is convinced that Alex Rios is an impact fantasy player. The only question is why. In 2007, Rios scored 114 runs and hit 24 homers. Last year, much of his value came because he swiped a career-high 32 bases, or as many bags as he stole in 2006 and 2007 combined. Can Rios combine his home run output of 2007 and his stolen base totals of 2008 to be a top-10 fantasy guy?

In the first half of last season, Rios completely lost his power stroke. He hit just four home runs in 362 at-bats. But he compensated by swiping 23 bases. In the second half Rios’ power came back. He hit 11 home runs in 292 at-bats although he stole just nine bags after the break.

Rios hit more groundballs than flyballs last year. Also, his HR/FB rate fell to 7.4 percent. But as you can see by the GB/FB/LD chart, Rios hit many more fly balls (the blue line in the chart) in the second half, after his FB% fell beneath his LD% midway through the season.

What does it mean for 2009? Well, it is likely that his poor home run output in the first half was a random fluke. But we could easily conclude the same thing about his stolen base numbers, too. Expect more home runs than the 15 he hit in 2008. But do not expect a repeat of his stolen base numbers. Rios never stole 30 or more bases anywhere in his professional career in this country. A 20-20 season is reasonable. A 30-30 campaign is not.

Talk about saving the best for last. Reds first baseman Joey Votto batted .382 with a .440 on-base percentage in August and hit nine home runs and posted a .723 slugging percentage in September. Those second half numbers made him a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate but do they make him an elite player for 2009?

Votto out-performed four of the five projection systems on FanGraphs, failing only to exceed the on-base and slugging percentage marks predicted by Bill James. Of course, Votto exceeded the playing time guess from James, so a case could be make he exceeded everyone’s expectations in 2008. He succeeded thanks to a 25.2 percent line drive rate, the fourth-best mark in the majors. He also struck out at a lower rate than most predicted. That’s a nice combination and it helped Votto across the board.

But as good as the season was, Votto was still a lower-echelon first baseman. Yes, he hit nearly .300 but 10 first basemen batted .289 or higher. Sure, Votto hit 24 home runs but that ranked 14th among first basemen. The only fantasy category he was in the upper half among his positional peers was steals, where he totaled seven and finished tied for fourth with two other players.

There’s no doubt that Votto will be a fun guy to root for on your fantasy team, but unless you think his August average (when he had a .422 BABIP) and/or his September home run rate (HR per every 10.44 AB) is his true talent level, one could make a case for at least 10 other first basemen that should be drafted ahead of him. If a fellow owner wants to draft him in the top 10 rounds or bid $20 or more on Votto, wish him luck and focus on another player from this deep fantasy position.

Things did not look good for Chris Iannetta when the Rockies re-signed catcher Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year deal prior to the start of the 2008 season. But Iannetta took over the starting job in mid-June and delivered 18 HR and 65 RBIs in 333 at-bats. Now, fantasy players are salivating over the prospects of a power-hitting catcher playing full time in Coors Field.

Iannetta prospered thanks to a .240 isolated slugging percentage. He had a flyball rate of 40.7 percent and when he hit the ball in the air, it left the park at an 18.2 percent rate. Iannetta destroyed lefties, batting .275/.398/.550 versus southpaws.

The big red flag surrounding Iannetta is his strikeout rate. He struck out in 27.6 percent of his at-bats last year, which would have ranked 10th in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. However, Iannetta did not have such a poor contact rate in the minors. In 803 at-bats in the minors, he had a 20.7 K% and at Triple-A it was 17.1 percent.

In 2008, Iannetta hit virtually the same at home as he did on the road. He posted an .893 OPS in Coors and an .897 mark in neutral road parks. This was due to a fluke BABIP split, in which he posted just a .276 mark in his home games.

Iannetta should get around 150-200 extra at-bats next season as the Rockies’ full-time starter from the beginning of the season. Those extra plate appearances, along with an expected improvement in his Coors Field numbers, will boost him to the top half of fantasy catchers, with a chance to move into elite status if he can maintain his solid road numbers.

The ninth pick of the 2005 draft, Mike Pelfrey shook off a brutal start to begin paying dividends for both the Mets and fantasy players last year. He finished with 13 wins and a 3.72 ERA along with a 1.36 WHIP and 110 strikeouts. Those numbers combined to make Pelfrey a top-60 starting pitcher in fantasy in 2008.

Those numbers are decent but to decipher Pelfrey’s potential value in 2009, it is worthwhile to look at his numbers both before and after he turned the corner. In the first nine starts of the year, Pelfrey was 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.776 WHIP. In his final 23 games, Pelfrey was 11-5 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP.

Now, those first nine starts of 2008 count and it would be foolish to write them off completely. But at the same time when projecting Pelfrey’s 2009 stats, it is equally silly to ignore the improvement he made over his final 23 games. He was so bad the first two months of the season that it dragged down his overall numbers.

If Pelfrey’s true talent level is a pitcher with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP then he moves up to the equal of pitchers like Ted Lilly or Jon Lester in the 20-25 range for starting pitchers.

Now we should look at his peripherals. Pelfrey had a .302 BABIP and his 3.96 FIP was slightly over his 3.72 ERA. A sinkerball pitcher, Pelfrey does an excellent job keeping the ball in the park, as his 0.54 HR/9 shows. He really turned the corner last year with his command. He finished with a 2.87 BB/9, which was nearly two full walks lower than his 2007 mark.

When valuing Pelfrey for 2009, ask if he can keep his HR rate that low. I believe with that power sinker he can. Then, can he keep the walk rate that low? Ordinarily, I would say no. But when we look at what he did over his final 23 games, his BB/9 mark was 2.37 over that span. That gives me greater confidence that he can maintain his 2008 seasonal rate of just under three.

So, the final thing to ponder is what will his K/9 look like. For all of 2008 it was 4.93, which is less than good. It was slightly better over his final 23 games – 5.16 – but nothing really to write home about, either. Pelfrey can survive without a high strikeout rate, but as fantasy players we want the big strikeout guys and it’s an important factor in ranking him appropriately.

Pelfrey had good-to-great strikeout rates in the minors. He averaged 6.81 SO/9 in 14 games at Triple-A in 2007 and had double-digit rates in 2006. And we’ve seen with Chien-Ming Wang that a sinkerballer can add strikeouts as they mature. I think a SO/9 rate of 6.00 is within reach for Pelfrey in 2009.

It’s not out of the question for Pelfrey to be a 15-game winner with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. If he can maintain a 6.00 SO/9 rate, that would give him 133 strikeouts in 200 innings. And that makes him a top-25 starting pitcher.