Heading into the 2008 season, Ryan Zimmerman was a Top 10 fantasy third baseman according to most cheat sheets. Then he suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 47 days during the year. Prior to the injury, Zimmerman was having a poor season. He posted a .257/.291/.427 line in 220 plate appearances before hitting the DL. Upon returning to the active roster, Zimmerman went .306/.370/.455 in his final 245 PA. And there has been no reports of lingering problems with the shoulder in the off-season.

Zimmerman hits for a pretty good AVG but does not offer the slugging one would expect from a top 3B. His HR/FB% has been remarkably consistent the past three seasons, with last year’s 11.5 percent a tenth of a percent higher than his previous two campaigns. The problem is he doesn’t hit enough fly balls. Last year his FB% was just 34.1 percent.

Since we know Zimmerman is not going to be a big HR threat, he needs to maximize his other categories in order to be an elite player at the hot corner. A .300 AVG is not out of the question nor is 100 RBIs and Runs.

If Zimmerman can hit those targets, he could be a top 10 3B even with a HR output in the low 20s. One thing to keep in mind is the depth of the 3B position, which gets a big boost from players at other positions (like Kevin Youkilis, Aubrey Huff and Christopher Davis) who played mostly elsewhere in 2008 yet still surpassed the 20-game mark at the hot corner. It’s not a given Zimmerman will be a starting-quality 3B.

But fantasy owners can’t simply allow Zimmerman to fall off the radar, either. Because of last year’s injury problems and his lack of big HR numbers throughout his career, he’s likely to be under-valued in many drafts. And with a decent chance to approach triple-digits in Runs and RBIs, Zimmerman offers a lot of upside for a player apt to be available in the bottom half of most drafts.

Fantasy players love sluggers. And few sluggers have been more consistent than Adam Dunn, who has cleared the 40-HR mark five years in a row, with exactly 40 dongs the past four seasons. He’s also been right around the 100-RBI mark that same time span. Up until last year, he’s also been right around 100 Runs scored. But his fantasy value took a hit last year as he dropped from 101 R to 79 and saw his AVG fall from .264 to .236.

Dunn reached base via a hit or walk 239 times in 2007 and 244 times last year. But that increase of five was reached thanks to 22 extra walks. Dunn suffered a 47-point drop in BABIP, which led to a .262 mark last year. Most of that damage occurred in June, when his BABIP was .190 even after eliminating the 39 strikeouts in 87 at-bats. Interestingly, Dunn snapped out of his funk after Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi trashed him on a radio show, saying, “We’ve done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there’s a reason why we don’t want Adam Dunn.

“Do you know the guy doesn’t really like baseball that much?” Ricciardi said to the caller. “Do you know the guy doesn’t have a passion to play the game that much?”

Ricciardi’s rant occurred right before an Interleague Series between the Reds and Blue Jays. Up until the series against Toronto, Dunn was mired in a 6-75 (.080 AVG) slump. He went 4-12 versus the Blue Jays and hit .249/.387/.529 for the remainder of the season.

Because Dunn is so consistent with his HR and RBI, where he rates as a fantasy hitter depends a lot on his AVG. He provides fourth-round value if he hits in the .260s, like he did in 2004 and 2007. But when that mark drops into the .230s, like it did in 2006 and 2008, he’s only giving owners seventh-round (or later) value.

What makes Dunn so intriguing to fantasy players is that you can match him with certain players and come up with a really nice combination. He is a fine complement to Jose Reyes or Ichiro Suzuki, to name just two guys who will give you AVG and SB but who may be lacking in HR and RBI.

So, where should you draft Dunn in 2009?

A lot will depend if you (or any other owner in your league) decide to punt steals. But even ignoring that for a moment, it’s hard to think about drafting him before the end of the fourth round. There is simply too much variability in his track record to think about him in the first three rounds.

Even the fourth round is a bit of a stretch, unless you are trying to make up power and can take the AVG and SB hit. But if Dunn is still sitting there at the end of the sixth round any team, regardless of its makeup to that point, should consider adding him because he’s likely to bounce back in BABIP and AVG in 2009.

And if Dunn signs with the Cubs, he may be worthy of even a higher draft pick. He has a lifetime .664 SLG mark in Wrigley Field in 217 at-bats, the highest mark for any stadium in which he has more than 66 lifetime ABs.

One thing that fantasy players value in their picks is consistency. And for the past three seasons, Jose Reyes has been one of the most consistent players around. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Reyes has finished third, seventh and first among hitters in dollar values earned the past three seasons.

Some fantasy players shy away from Reyes because he does not hit a lot of HR or drive in a bunch of runs. But in the past four seasons, he has finished first three times and second once in the National League in SB. And he’s nearly as productive in runs, with Reyes notching two fourth-place finishes and a fifth in the NL the past three seasons.

And while Reyes will never find himself in the top 10 in HR, he does have solid pop for a leadoff hitter. He has averaged nearly 16 HR per season the past three years. Reyes is also good for an average in the .290 range.

And while it’s true that he is weak in RBIs, Reyes had 68 last year and has driven in as many as 81 in a season. So it’s nowhere near the black hole for a category that a slugger like Ryan Howard totaling one SB is.

Reyes is a top-five pick overall in any fantasy league. How high you draft him depends on personal preference in how you want to build your team. Some owners wouldn’t dream of taking him before Alex Rodriguez even though Reyes has out-performed A-Rod in two of the past three years and is eight years younger.

Steals is a category that gives lots of fantasy players trouble as many of the top base stealers are killers in other categories. Reyes brings a broad base of skills along with his speed and can single-handedly solve a team’s SB problems. Don’t worry about the power categories when you draft Reyes with your first pick. You can draw even with other teams in the next two rounds while still maintaining your SB edge.

The shortstop position is so weak in fantasy right now that Rafael Furcal, a player who has had his last two seasons marred by injury and one who enters the season carrying some seriously bad karma, is a top five player at the position.

Furcal missed most of last season with a back injury but when he was healthy he played extremely well. He had a .357/.439/.573 line in 164 plate appearances. Back injuries can be chronic but with at least four teams – A’s, Braves, Dodgers and Giants – actively pursuing Furcal in the off-season, one has to assume the medical reports are good.

In his last healthy season in 2006, Furcal notched a .300-15-63 line with 113 Runs and 37 SB. Neither Bill James nor Marcel project him to come anywhere close to that line in 2009. And in addition to a decline in his rate stats, they both see a player with serious playing time issues – not surprising for either system.

To properly value Furcal, first each fantasy player is going to have to decide how much playing time they feel comfortable assigning to him. In his nine seasons in the majors, he has topped the 150-game plateau just four times. So even if you are bullish on Furcal coming into the year, it’s just not realistic to assume 150 games.

Furcal benefited greatly from a high BABIP and HR/FB rate in his abbreviated 2008. But the rest of his batted ball profile was right around his career average. Also, his plate discipline showed marked improvement in his limited playing time last year. Furcal had his highest BB% since his rookie season and his K% was less than his BB% for the first time in his career.

There is risk surrounding Furcal but a fantasy team without risk is unlikely to be a challenger for the top spot. In a top-heavy position, Furcal offers owners their best chance to acquire high-end production at a lower cost. Last year Michael Young and Derek Jeter each delivered approximately $14 of value. I would rather have Furcal than either of those players in 2009.

It was shaping up as a disappointing season for Kelly Johnson in 2008 until a strong September. After three straight months of hitting .250 or less, Johnson posted a 22-game hitting streak in the season’s final month, which led to a .398/.429/.643 line over his final 106 plate appearances. That final surge rescued his overall numbers and his fantasy season and he finished as a top 10 second baseman.

But should a .450 BABIP in September cloud our judgment on what happened the other five months of the season?

The biggest thing about Johnson’s year was the collapse of his walk rate. Seemingly taking a page out of Jeff Francoeur’s book, Johnson swung at 7.6 percent more pitches in 2008 than the previous year and most of those were pitches outside the zone. His O-Swing % jumped from 18.4 percent to 25.6 percent. And that led to his BB% dropping from 13.2 to 8.7 percent.

So, even though Johnson added 11 points to his batting average, his on-base percentage fell 26 points – no easy task. His ISO also dropped 21 points. Interestingly, he saw his K% actually fall despite swinging at more bad pitches. But if we look at Francoeur, we notice the same pattern unfolding during his career in Atlanta.

Also like Francouer, Johnson has seen his HR/FB rates fall. The more aggressive Johnson posted a 7.6 HR/FB% in 2008, a rate which matched his IFFB%.

The saving grace for Johnson was his LD%. He finished tied for fifth in the majors with a 24.7 percent line drive rate. Not surprisingly, that helped Johnson to a .344 BABIP, the 16th-best mark in the majors.

Both Bill James and Marcel predict a rebound year for Johnson in 2009. Both projection systems see him getting his BB% back into double digits with subsequent increases in both his OBP and SLG.

There is certainly reason for optimism surrounding Johnson coming into 2009. The hot September and the season-long line drive rates are two positive markers. But the combination of the falling walk rate combined with the uptick in swinging at pitches outside the zone is just too much to ignore.

There was a big drop-off in production from second basemen after Johnson and Placido Polanco, who each returned over $11 in 2008. After those two the next most valuable at the position was Kaz Matsui, at a little over $5. Given the uncertainty over Johnson’s performance – do you really want to count on another month with a .450 BABIP? – bidding a double-digit salary seems a very risky move.

Derrek Lee finished 21st in the MVP vote in 2008 on the heels of his .291/.361/.462 season for the NL Central-winning Chicago Cubs. But as impressive as that may be, Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league.

In 2005, the idea that Lee would be a fringe starter just a few years later was absurd. That season he went .335-46-107 and seemingly had the world at his feet. But after signing a five-year contract in April of 2006, Lee suffered a right wrist injury that ruined his season and apparently robbed him of his power.

When he returned in 2007, Lee hit just 22 HR and his 12.6 percent HR/FB ratio was nearly half the total he posted in his big 2005 season of 23.7 percent. In 2008, many thought his power would return with him being further out from the wrist surgery. But Lee’s HR/FB ratio fell to 11.7 percent and his FB% fell to 33.7 percent, a career low.

What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion. In the past two seasons, he’s hit 31 HR at home and just 11 in neutral road parks.

Lee enters 2009 as a 33-year old with limited power at a fantasy position that demands big HR and RBI numbers. In 2008, Lee had the 11th-best dollar value among first basemen, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Among those beneath him and ready to challenge him for a spot in the top 12 are Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis and Pablo Sandoval. Aubrey Huff and Jorge Cantu have first base eligibility, as well.

Francisco Rodriguez had a fantastic season in 2008, where he set the single-season save record and was the most valuable relief pitcher in fantasy baseball. But conventional wisdom says to avoid Rodriguez this year in fantasy drafts. It would be one thing if analysts said that he was likely to have 20 fewer saves this season and left it at that. Instead, they talk about how Rodriguez has had four years of declining peripherals and is on the verge of losing his effectiveness as a relief pitcher.

Rodriguez has declining peripherals has been repeated so often that it is now virtually an urban myth. And like with all urban myths, you should politely nod and completely ignore it.

In 2004, Rodriguez had a 13.18 K/9 ratio. Anyone who expected him to maintain that rate the rest of his career was not being realistic. His 10.14 K/9 in 2008 was the 15th-best mark in the majors. Rodriguez is in a lose-lose scenario with analysts in regards to his strikeout rate. Any higher and they would claim it was unsustainable. And now that it’s not in the top 10, it’s a huge warning sign that he’s lost his stuff.

To further back up this point, people will tell you that his velocity has shown a similar drop the past few seasons. In 2006, his average fastball velocity was 94.8 mph while last year it was 91.9, a significant drop.

Rodriguez himself claims that the velocity drop last year was due to his adding a changeup. He intentionally threw his fastball with less velocity in order to keep his changeup delivery consistent. Furthermore, Rodriguez claims that he has mastered the changeup and that the delivery is no longer an issue.

Now, it’s one thing to make those kinds of proclamations. It’s another thing entirely for them to stand up to the scrutiny of examining numbers. Did Rodriguez throw harder later in the year than he did at the beginning?

Yes.

According to Dan Brooks’ PitchFX tool, in his outing on April 29, Rodriguez’ average fastball was 91.99 mph while his maximum checked in at 92.6. Fast forward to September and we see a different story. On September 24 his average was 93.67 while his maximum was 95.3. And that is not cherry picking his best September performance. Check any of his outings in the month and you will see average and maximum velocities significantly higher than what he did in April and more in line with what he did in 2006, his top average velocity year for the four seasons in which we have data.

The doubters will then turn to his walk rate. Last year, Rodriguez allowed 4.48 BB/9, a truly bad number. But this doesn’t fit into the declining peripherals storyline, as he posted a 4.54 mark the previous season. Additionally, we see that Rodriguez struggled with walks in April. In 2008, he had six outings in which he gave up two or more walks and four of those came in the first month of the season.

In the second half of last year, Rodriguez had a 2.73 BB/9. And if we just eliminate April, his BB/9 was 3.97, nearly half a walk per game lower than it was for the entire season.

Another factor to consider in addition to working in a new pitch is that Rodriguez suffered from an ankle injury in April.

Now we have the additional knowledge that Rodriguez will be pitching in the National League in 2009. He won’t have to face designated hitters, frequently one of the top hitters on an opposing team. And while Rodriguez won’t get to face any pitchers, last year pinch hitters in the National League posted a .229/.317/.345 line. Now, Rodriguez will likely fact the top PH but they will still produce lines inferior to the designated hitters he is used to facing.

Taken all together, there is no sound reason to predict a massive decline for Rodriguez in 2009. Yes, his save numbers will likely take a big hit. But given his age, track record and switch to the National League there is no reason not to slot him as one of the top relievers in the game. While others may back away from Rodriguez, this gives smart fantasy owners a chance to get one of the top relievers in the game at a relative bargain.

We all know Barry Zito. He is the biggest bust in free agent history. Zito is the guy who walks over five batters per nine. He is the fellow with the -2.79 WPA, the fourth-worst mark among starting pitchers last year. Zito is also the guy who falls down in high leverage situations, as his -1.34 Clutch rate was the third-worst for starters. He is the pitcher with an average fastball velocity of 84.9, the fifth-slowest mark in baseball and surrounded by guys in their 40s.

So, why on earth would we focus on him as a fantasy player?

In the beginning of the century, Zito was one of the top pitchers in baseball. There is a combination of ability and pitching smarts hidden beneath the wreckage of the past two seasons.

Well, that and he rebounded to pitch half decently after an awful start in 2008.

After nine starts, Zito was 0-8 with a 6.25 ERA along with 24 walks and 22 strikeouts in 44.2 innings. And just for kicks he allowed six home runs in that stretch. Not much return for $14.5 million, was it?

But from May 23 until the end of the season, Zito was 10-9 with a 4.79 ERA. Now, that’s hardly anything to get excited about but at the very least it was a drastic improvement over what he did at the beginning of the season. His K/9 ratio jumped to 6.52 while his BB/9 actually increased to 5.19 from 4.84 earlier in the season. And he also kept the ball in the park, allowing a 0.67 HR/9 mark.

One of the keys to Zito’s turnaround is that he actually showed a little more life on his fastball as the season progressed. According to Dan Brooks’ PitchFX site, in his penultimate start of the year, Zito’s fastball averaged 87.17 mph with a high of 89.4 compared to a season average of 84.9 as was mentioned earlier. By contrast, in his April 27 start, Zito’s fastball topped out at 84.4 and his average was 82.8 for the day.

With more life on his fastball, Zito went from awful to a league-average type starter. The final step in his rehabilitation will be to get his walk rate under control. And the main problem is still his fastball. According to Josh Kalk’s PITCHf/x tool, Zito’s fastball broke down like this:

Balls – 337
Called Strikes – 185
Swing and Miss – 36
Foul Ball – 123
Out Recorded – 78
Hit – 30

Clearly, with a heater that still doesn’t crack 90 mph, Zito can’t just lay his fastball down the heart of the plate. But hopefully, he can move closer to the strike zone and get more swings.

At this point, that is simply wishcasting. Zito actually has to go out and do it. Right now, he is not worth drafting in mixed leagues. But with the improvement that he showed last year, and with his past pedigree, Zito is someone to target late in NL-only leagues. And my hunch is that he will be a popular addition in mixed leagues during the season.

Is it better to be lucky or good? Annual injuries aside, Chipper Jones was both of these things in 2008 as he batted over .400 for the first two-and-a-half months of the season. How was he lucky? He was second in the majors with a .388 BABIP, which was 65 points higher than his career average. How was he good? His 17.0 percent BB% was the highest mark of his career since 1999 while his 13.9 percent K% was his lowest since 2000.

Ahh, but those injuries. Last year he missed time due to the following ailments: back spasms, quadriceps, eye, left hamstring, stomach virus, allergies, knee, back and shoulder. It was the fourth time in five years that Jones failed to reach 500 at-bats in a season.

Injuries and age have robbed him of his speed and some of his power. No longer is Jones a threat to steal 20 bases or hit 35 home runs. But three of his top five seasons for AVG have come since 2006, including last year’s monster .364 season. This combination makes Jones one of the tougher players to properly value in a fantasy draft.

In 2006, Jones was the 43rd-best fantasy hitter, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. In 2007 he was the 15th best. Yet due to injury concerns, Jones had an ADP in the mid-60s last year, meaning he was a sixth-round pick in a standard 12-team mixed league.

Both the Bill James and the Marcel projection for Jones show similar results. They both expect him to match last year’s production in HR, RBI and R but suffer a 45-50 point drop in AVG. Those two forecast systems are projecting Jones to be roughly the fantasy player he was in 2006.

So, if Jones was a sixth-round pick one year after delivering second-round production, where will he fall after a season in which he delivered fourth-round value? It’s hard to imagine Jones being drafted earlier in 2009 than he was in 2008 in competitive leagues. If it is the eighth round and Jones is still available, you have to consider pulling the trigger. Just make sure to draft a competent backup on the late rounds because you know you will be playing him more than most reserves.

When fantasy players think of the top first basemen in the game, Adrian Gonzalez is not the first name that comes to mind. But the first overall pick in the 2000 draft put up his third straight solid season, posting .279-36-119 line with 103 runs scored. Gonzalez established career highs in HR, RBI and R despite playing in a home park that killed his numbers.

In Petco Park, Gonzalez had a .788 OPS while on the road his OPS checked in at .946 for the year. He hit as many home runs on the road (22) as Ryan Howard, although the NL home run leader enjoyed a 26-14 edge in their respective home parks.

Home park aside, there is a lot to like about Gonzalez. He upped his BB% to 10.7 percent last year and his ISO to .231 – both career highs. His BABIP was a reasonable .311 and it was supported by a 20.4 percent line drive rate.

Gonzalez achieved his career high 36 homers thanks to a 20.7 percent HR/FB rate, which ranked ninth in the majors. However, just 36.6 percent of his batted balls were fly balls, which ranked 74th last season and one which he should be able to improve in 2009.

When projecting Gonzalez the two keys are to figure how well he will do in Petco and if he can rebound versus southpaws. Last year, lefties limited him to a .213/.287/.387 line in 261 plate appearances. His OPS was 59 points lower against lefties in 2008 than for his career, including an AVG 35 points beneath his lifetime marks against lefties.

Regression cuts both ways. Any drops in power and/or production should be matched or exceeded by an increase in batting average. Gonzalez is entering the prime of his career and a $25 season is well within his reach. While up to four first baseman may go in the first round of your draft, Gonzalez makes an excellent consolation prize in round four and allows you to concentrate on scarcer positions in the first few rounds.