Josh Fields was a two-sport star at Oklahoma State, as he was the starting quarterback for the Cowboys and helped lead them to two wins over Oklahoma during his tenure. Fields made the decision to concentrate on baseball and he was the 18th pick of the 2004 draft for the White Sox.

Despite not having the baseball-heavy background of some of his peers, Fields turned in a nice year at Triple-A in 2006 and was considered one of the top prospects in the game for the 2007 season. He responded by hitting 23 home runs in 373 at-bats in his rookie season.

But 2008 was a different story. Fields spent most of the season in the minors and when he did play in the majors, manager Ozzie Guillen constantly harped on his poor defense. Additionally, Fields suffered from a patella injury last year and had off-season surgery on his right knee.

However, Fields is a guy to watch because the starting third base job is his to lose. Yes, his strikeout rate is alarming. But this is also a guy with a .221 ISO in his 478 plate appearances in the majors.

If you miss out on the top tier third baseman and none of the lower tier guys strike your fancy, Fields is an excellent gamble on the late rounds of your draft. He has the opportunity to get 550 at-bats and he has produced power at both Triple-A and the majors in the last three years when given a shot at regular playing time. Fields offers 25 HR power at the end of a draft, something not many players can say.

In his third season in the majors last year, Dan Uggla set career marks in HR (32) and RBIs (92) and re-gained 15 points in average that he lost from the year before. It would appear that Uggla is on a fantasy upswing but there are just enough warning signs to make owners leery about investing too much in him.

Uggla has an ADP of 59 according to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, making him a late fifth-round pick and putting him in the second tier of second baseman along with Alexei Ramirez and possibly Robinson Cano.

But Uggla hit under .200 versus LHP last year and continued a career pattern of fading in the second half of the season. In 2008, Uggla had a .739 OPS after the All-Star break, compared to a .978 mark before it. Major League pitchers fed Uggla a steady diet of off-speed pitches. He saw a fastball on just 50.2 percent of his at-bats last year, the second-lowest mark in the majors.

Ordinarily, these numbers would not mean too much. But in the off-season, the Marlins acquired Emilio Bonifacio, a speedy second baseman with an excellent defensive reputation. Uggla’s reputation in the field is not good (although defensive metrics show a big improvement in 2008) and his performance in the All-Star game certainly didn’t help any.

There have been all kinds of rumors about what Florida plans to do with its infield, with speculation having one or the other between Uggla and Bonifacio moving to the hot corner.

Either way, it seems unlikely that the Marlins acquired Bonifacio to be a bench player. How will Uggla react if he has to switch positions? If Bonifacio opens the season as a super-sub, will the Marlins keep Uggla on a short leash if he gets off to a slow start? How will Uggla’s arbitration case with the team affect his status?

It seems silly to have to worry about a player who has averaged 30 HR a season for his three years in the majors. But the Marlins have not been embracing Uggla here in the off-season. Besides the trade for Bonifacio, they refused to even consider a long-term contract for Uggla, despite his desire to team up with Hanley Ramirez as the team’s double play combo for years to come.

These concerns can be dismissed as idle speculation. But when it comes to a high draft pick, it seems unnecessarily risky to spend a fifth-round pick on a guy about whom his current team seems to be lukewarm.

Carlos Quentin was one of the front runners to win the MVP Award last year before his season ended in September with a broken wrist. All indications are that his recovery has gone without a hitch and he is expected ready for Spring Training. Yet fantasy players are treating him cautiously, as Quentin’s ADP according to the latest Mock Draft Central rankings is 37.

After two unimpressive stints with the Diamondbacks, Quentin flourished last year in his first full season. Most significant was his 36 home runs in 480 at-bats. Wrist injuries frequently sap power, which is undoubtedly the main reason Quentin is slipping into the fourth and sometimes even fifth round in early mocks.

Quentin is an unusual hitter in that he rarely hits line drives. His 15.4 percent LD mark was the third lowest in the majors and contributed to his .280 BABIP. But his low-strikeout and high-HR numbers resulted in an AVG of .288, or eight points above his BABIP.

The move to Chicago agreed with Quentin last year. He hit 21 of his 36 homers at Comiskey Park. But he did well on the road, too, where he notched a .950 OPS.

Because he struggled in his first two seasons in the majors, it’s easy to forget the Quentin was a top prospect. What he did last season was better, but not out of line with what he produced in the minors. Following his 2005 season at Tucson, prospect maven John Sickels ranked him as the sixth-best position player in baseball and Baseball America had him 20th overall, one spot above Nick Markakis.

But it all comes back to the wrist injury. And before you point to Evan Longoria, here’s what Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll had to say: “Here’s the key on Longoria — he broke his ARM (distal tip of ulna), not his wrist. If you pointed to the area, we’d all use the common term of ‘wrist’ but it’s not anatomically so.”

So, caution is justified with Quentin. He will still be a worthwhile player to own, but he’s not a top three-round guy. And before you draft him in the fourth round, ask yourself if you wouldn’t be better off with Curtis Granderson, who will be a full year removed from a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger.

Of the players likely to go in the first few picks, perhaps the hardest to forecast is Josh Hamilton. Over at Mock Draft Central, Hamilton has been picked as high as second and as low as 18, which is a pretty wide split. Let’s compare that to two other guys who have topped out as the second pick. Jose Reyes has not dropped below eighth and Grady Sizemore’s lowest position was 11th.

Now Hamilton as the second pick is probably a reach, but he is in a group of people to consider at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second. Some analysts think it is crazy to draft Hamilton on the first round when you can get Carlos Lee on the second. Others see the production that Hamilton delivered last year – .304-32-130-98-9 – in his first full season and see room for improvement.

Part of the problem with Hamilton is that so much of his value derives from that high RBI total. He was second in the majors last year and only a second-half slump kept him from posting even gaudier totals in the category. Hamilton had 61 RBIs the first two months of the season and only 26 combined in August and September.

Fantasy owners like HR, SB and AVG because for the most part, the players are in control of their numbers in these categories. Meanwhile, as Jim Rice can tell you, RBIs are dependent on opportunities. It sure helps when you have Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans (or Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) getting on base a ton for you to drive in.

Hamilton’s monster first half coincided nicely with Kinsler’s terrific start. Then when Kinsler faded and then got injured in the second half, Hamilton suffered with him. It was a rough August for Hamilton, but he hit great in September (.366/.443/.516) and still managed just 13 RBIs.

A look at Hamilton’s profile shows nothing outlandish. Yes, his BABIP was high at .339 but nothing to be overly concerned about given his line drive and ground ball tendencies. Hamilton does not hit a ton of fly balls (32.9%) but has a good rate of converting those into home runs (19.2%). The fly ball percentage is low and will probably keep him from ever contending for the HR crown. But the Ballpark in Arlington, where he hit 19 HR last year, should keep him a 30-HR player.

In fantasy football, it is very common to look to capitalize with a QB-WR combo to give yourself a nine, 10 or 12-point connection. This year fantasy baseball players might be wise to do the same with Hamilton and Kinsler. Now you just have to decide which one to draft first.

In 2004 and 2005, Roy Halladay missed significant time with first a shoulder injury and then a leg injury. Since then he’s started 31 or more games three consecutive years but some fantasy players still consider him an injury risk. That’s good news as it means that one of the top pitchers in the game doesn’t carry the cost that he could.

In 2008, Halladay led the American League in WHIP (1.053), finished second in Wins (20) and ERA (2.78) and third in strikeouts (206). Yet according to the latest rankings from Mock Draft Central, Halladay is the seventh pitcher off the board, with an ADP of 47 or 30 spots behind Johan Santana.

Last year, Halladay started throwing more cut fastballs. He got more swings outside of the zone and batters made less contact on those swings than they had previously against him. All of that led to a 7.54 K/9, his highest total for any season with more than 17 starts.

There is at least one big concern around Halladay. In 2008, manager John Gibbons let him throw nine complete games, which led to 246 innings, his highest total since 2003. The next year is when Halladay came down with his shoulder injury.

All pitchers carry risk. And perhaps Halladay has slightly more risk than others because of his past injury history. But according to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Halladay was the top pitcher in 2008 with a $34.14 earned dollar value, which was good for eighth overall. It’s up to each fantasy player to weigh the risk and the reward for each player and value them accordingly.

No one can accurately predict the risk of a pitcher coming down with an injury. But most people would say that it is less risky to have a 31-year-old pitcher throw 246 innings than a 26-year-old one throw 266, like Halladay did in 2003.

However, that is not the only risk that owners have to take with Halladay. While he was the top pitcher in 2008, he was outside the top 30 in 2007, when he made 31 starts. Was 2008 simply a career year for Halladay? It was certainly his best to date; but he also has a greater track record than just one season, as he was one of the game’s best in both 2003 and 2006 and was on pace in 2005 before the leg injury.

Fantasy players should look for certainty with their first few picks. But at some point you have to add risk and upside or you are certain to finish out of the money. So far this off-season, owners are saying Halladay’s risk becomes appropriate near the end of the fourth round.

The shortstop position in fantasy baseball as we head towards the 2009 season has three players in the top tier and around 10 players fighting for position in the second tier. One of the interesting players is Indians shortstop Jhonny Peralta. In three of the past four years, Peralta has delivered good numbers in home runs, runs and RBIs. Last year he led all shortstops in RBIs and finished third in both runs and HRs. Unfortunately, he contributes nothing in steals and his average has not been a plus since 2005.

Last year, Peralta’s numbers benefited by him putting more balls in play. Both his BB% and SO% decreased as he set career highs in five plate discipline metrics. He had 17 more plate appearances than 2007 but 51 more balls where he made contact. Peralta’s BABIP was his lowest since becoming a full-time player in 2005 but he posted his second-best fantasy season, going .276-23-89-104-3.

A switch in the batting order also helped Peralta’s 2008 numbers. Last year he spent much of the year in the cleanup spot after hitting fifth, sixth or seventh most of the year in 2007. As the Indians did not add a slugger in the off-season, Peralta still figures to hit in the heart of the order, which should keep his RBI numbers high.

Peralta should be a pretty good bet to match last year’s numbers. What is harder to say is where fantasy owners should target him. One ADP report has him at #83, which is at the end of the seventh round. Another report has him at #117, which is in the middle of the 10th round. This is a pretty big discrepancy, but perfectly reasonable given how bunched up the second tier of shortstops actually are.

One of the keys to being a successful fantasy player is understanding the ebb and flow of your draft. Even if you rank Peralta as the fourth-best shortstop in fantasy, is there any reason to draft him in the seventh round if J.J. Hardy, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Young, Stephen Drew and Derek Jeter are all still available?

Peralta should put up good fantasy numbers once again in 2009. But he is just one of many middle-class options at shortstop. You should feel good if you wind up with Peralta as your starting shortstop. Just remember not to reach or overpay for the privilege.

Garrett Atkins drew plenty of interest in the off-season from major league teams. The Phillies, Twins, Rays and Angels have all been linked to Atkins since the end of the 2008 season. But fantasy owners are not showing quite the same interest. Many people view the hot corner as a weak position, yet the third baseman for the Rockies has an ADP in the mid 70s, meaning he’s not going on average until the seventh round.

Atkins put up a .286-21-99-86-1 line last year. These were declines across the board from his standout 2006 season, when he was a top-20 hitter and had a $31 fantasy value. His current ADP values him right around the numbers he put up last year, meaning that fantasy players are not counting on much of a bounce-back season from the 29-year old. This pretty much matches the three projection systems, which show a bump in average but have the rest of Atkins’ numbers maintaining 2008 levels.

Is there any reason to think Atkins can improve upon his 2008 output?

His BABIP for road games last year was just .251, which led to a .233 average away from Coors Field. It is reasonable to think he will improve upon this and add some batting average to his line. But Atkins had good power numbers away from home, hitting 12 of his 21 home runs in road parks. So, even with a more normal BABIP, he’s not likely to add much in the power department.

The other thing that jumps out is Atkins’ split by position. Last year he split time between his normal 3B spot and he also saw considerable time at 1B, filling in for the injured Todd Helton. Here are his splits by position:

3B: .307/.338/.485 in 396 PA
1B: .258/.316/.407 in 263 PA

Prior to 2008, Atkins had appeared in just 10 games at first base. Helton had back surgery at the end of September and his status for the start of the season is up in the air. But the Rockies might let Joe Koshansky fill in for Helton this year after his big season at Triple-A, where he went .300-31-121 in 457 at-bats.

The average fan thinks anyone can play first base and not have it affect their offensive numbers. But players from Mickey Mantle to Mike Piazza have found out otherwise. Perhaps Atkins’ position split last year was nothing more than a fluke. But perhaps it wasn’t.

We all want to draft undervalued players. We search for sleepers and reach for them during the draft, hoping they can match our expectations. But with Atkins, we have a player who is being valued at what he did in 2008. Unlike with our favorite sleeper, we know what Atkins is capable of at the major league level – we saw it three years ago in 2006.

If you pick at the top of your draft and don’t end up with Alex Rodriguez or David Wright, it makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.

That seems like a better idea than reaching for Pablo Sandoval in the 15th round.

Shin-Soo Choo, once a top prospect for the Mariners, received the most playing time of his major league career for the Indians last year. In his first year back after having Tommy John surgery, he set the record for most hits in a season by a Korean-born player. Choo’s 98 hits eclipsed the mark of 86 set by Hee Seop Choi in 2004.

The knock on Choo is that he is a platoon player or fourth outfielder. But in 2008, the lefty hitting Choo posted a .286/.345/.455 line versus southpaws, albeit in 84 plate appearances. But considering how well he hits righties (.317/.413/.579 last year), Choo apparently has earned a full-time starting job as Spring Training approaches.

Grady Sizemore is a fixture in center for Cleveland and he will be flanked by Choo and Ben Francisco. But the big unknown is Matt LaPorta, the key player received by the Tribe in the C.C. Sabathia deal last summer. LaPorta was enjoying a standout season before suffering a concussion in the Olympics. He will most likely start the season in the minors but it would be no surprise if LaPorta was in the majors before September, with the big question of if he will be an outfielder or a first baseman.

Choo had a .373 BABIP last season, which would have tied for third in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. But as fantastic as that was, it was in line with what he had done in previous stints in the majors. His lifetime mark in the category now sits at .369 in 509 at-bats.

While Choo may or may not be able to sustain a high BABIP the big question is what can we expect from him in the power department. Last year’s .240 ISO mark was well beyond anything he had posted previously, either in the majors or the minors. But a significant portion of that was from doubles, as he smacked 28 two-baggers in 317 at-bats.

Some might be concerned about his 16.1 percent HR/FB mark last year, but in the only other season in the majors where he had sizable playing time, Choo posted a 14.3 percent HR/FB mark.

Assuming Choo holds down a full-time job for the year, he could post a .290 average along with 15-20 HRs and 8-10 steals, too. If he was a first baseman, we might call him Derrek Lee. And for a guy who goes undrafted in many early mocks, that’s great production. Make sure to have Choo on your list of players to target in the late rounds of your draft.

Perhaps no player in fantasy baseball has a wider range of potential outcomes than Pirates outfielder Nyjer Morgan. A former hockey player in the Canadian Junior Leagues, Morgan is really fast and he has posted a good batting average in two limited stretches in the majors. He is in a battle for a starting job in Spring Training and there is a strong possibility he starts April as the team’s leadoff man and everyday left fielder.

If Morgan holds down the starting job all season his upside is 2003-vintage Juan Pierre. That year, Pierre hit .305, stole 65 bases and had roughly a $30 season despite hitting just one home run.

But even if Morgan wins the job in Spring Training over Steve Pearce, there’s no guarantee he holds on to the job, as Andrew McCutchen will likely join the Pirates at some point in the 2009 season and take over an everyday job in the outfield.

And there’s always the battle with Pearce, who has been a better hitter than Morgan throughout their careers in the minors and who has the power bat that teams like to see from their corner outfielders. The Pirates seem worried about Pearce’s ability to hit off-speed pitches and have hinted that he may need additional seasoning in the minors.

So, if Morgan wins the battle in Spring Training, how likely is he to keep the job?

The first thing that jumps out about Morgan is his BABIP. Last year in Pittsburgh it was .367 and that hardly seems a mark that he could maintain going forward. But Morgan has always posted high BABIPs in the minors. He makes decent contact, hits line drives, and has the tremendous speed – pretty much the exact profile of a player who can post high BABIPs.

Can Morgan supplement his average with a good OBP? He’s never had a great walk season and there is no reason to expect him to in 2009. Yet, he should be able to post an OBP of around .350 if he can hit .300, which would be borderline acceptable. For a comparison, Pierre’s OBP was .361 in 2003.

Is he a good enough fielder to hold down a corner spot with no power? While defensive ability currently has no value in fantasy baseball, in this particular case it will help determine Morgan’s playing time. He does not look like a good outfielder running routes to the ball, but his UZR numbers are through the roof. Last year, only two qualified left fielders posted a double-digit UZR/150. In 45 games last year, Morgan’s UZR/150 extrapolated to 22.4, which would have been behind only Carl Crawford among left fielders.

Does the manager seem willing to go to war with Morgan? At the end of last season, Pirates manager John Russell said, “He did some really good things. He was exciting. He really added a dimension to our offense. His missing three games is not going to affect our evaluation.” In December, MLB.com had Russell suggesting “the Pirates will start the season with Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss manning the outfield.”

But while all of the above might paint a rosy picture, keep in mind that his MLE from his 327 at-bats in Triple-A last year show a player with a .266/.310/.324 line. Do you place more value on 327 Triple-A at-bats or the 160 he had with the Pirates? And even if you favor the at-bats in Pittsburgh, how much faith do you have that he can maintain the ultra-high BABIP?

Morgan simply has too much volatility to be anything other than a late-round pick in most fantasy leagues. It’s near certain that some owners will fall in love with his SB potential and draft him earlier than that, especially if the Pirates announce that he’s won the job before your league drafts. But remember that McLouth and Moss are definitely above him in the pecking order and that McCutchen and Pearce (and even Craig Monroe) are looming if he stumbles.

On May 26th, Carlos Delgado went 0-for-3 with a sac fly, dropping his line to .215/.294/.387 for the season. The people who were not calling for his outright release were counting down the days until the end of the season when the Mets could refuse his option and look to fill first base from free agency.

Delgado got a day off on the 27th and from that following day until the end of the year, his batting line was .295/.378/.576 over 482 plate appearances. Many people want to point his resurgence to when the club fired Willie Randolph, but Delgado’s hot streak started nearly three weeks before Randolph got the ax.

Regardless, many fantasy players still view Delgado as a question mark. They are leery of him maintaining the production that he showed over two-thirds of the season in 2008 for a full year in 2009 when he will be 37-years old. But there are several reasons for optimism surrounding Delgado.

One might assume that his BABIP was unsustainable during his hot streak. But in the second half of the season it sat at .295 and for the year it was .284 or 25 points below his career average. Furthermore, neither his BB% (10.7) nor K% (20.7) were out of line with what he’s done the past few years.

The main reason Delgado’s 2008 stats seem mind boggling is that he had such a poor year in 2007. That season, he was recovering from right wrist surgery performed following the 2006 season and was also adjusting to being a first-time father. When his numbers suffered, it was easy to point out his age and say that he was just winding down as a player, a point seemingly bolstered by his start to the 2008 season.

But let’s remove his 2007 line and compare the fantasy stats Delgado posted in 2006 and 2008 and see how they compare to one another.

2006: .265-38-114-89-0
2008: .271-38-115-96-0

Those lines seem perfectly compatible and while Delgado’s 2006 season represented a decline from the previous year, he also suffered a 62-point drop in BABIP that season.

The big difference between 2006 and 2008 for Delgado was his batted ball profile. While his HR/FB rate was nearly identical – 22.9 percent in ’06 compared to 23.3 percent last year – Delgado traded fly balls for line drives. Last year he had a 24.5 percent LD% while posting a 33.9 percent FB%. In 2006, those numbers were 17.9 percent and 43.4 percent, respectively.

One might expect that last year’s big season for line drives would have resulted in a big bump in BABIP but as noted earlier it was just .284 as compared to .276 in 2006. Perhaps a reason for this lower-than-expected BABIP is the exaggerated shift that teams deploy against Delgado, as they move their shortstop to the right side of second base when he comes to the plate.

That makes the big question whether Delgado can maintain his HR output while hitting so few fly balls. His FB% put him between Johnny Damon and Brandon Phillips on the leaderboard, not the first two players who jump to mind when one thinks of power hitters. Of course, Delgado’s HR/FB rate ranked fourth in MLB.

But the fact that the 6.2 percent drop in fly balls from 2006 to 2008 was more than made up for by the 6.6 percent increase in line drives is a good sign. Delgado still has the bat speed to make solid contact. It would be much more worrisome if the line drive percentage dropped and the fly balls increased.

Furthermore, a 24.5 percent line drive rate is not unheard of for Delgado. He posted a 27 percent rate in 2003, the second year which we have the data. In those seven years, Delgado has a LD% over 20 percent four times.

One thing fantasy players should keep in mind about Delgado is his new home ballpark. There have been wild speculations about it being either a “launching pad” or a “Grand Canyon”. One thing we do know is that Delgado never hit for a high average in Shea.

Here are his splits in his three years with the Mets:

H: .237 (190-801) with 48 HR (21 in 2008)
R: .282 (242-859) with 52 HR

Even if the new park favors pitchers, it would be hard for it to depress Delgado’s numbers farther, as most players perform better in their home parks. And the chance exists that it will actually help instead of cutting 45 points off his batting average.

So, fantasy players should feel confident about taking Delgado’s 2008 numbers at face value. He was not particularly lucky, his numbers stack up well with his previous output, especially once you remove his dreadful 2007 numbers and the move to the new park should not be a concern as he never hit particularly well at Shea, anyway.

Of course, first base is stacked in fantasy so it is not wise to make Delgado one of the top players picked at the position. But last year he ranked ninth among first basemen with a $22.22 dollar value and he should approach those numbers again in 2009.