Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
ANA – Weaver
DET – Galarraga
KCY – Hochevar
HOU – Paulino
SEA – Vargas
FLA – Koronka

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
PHI – Moyer
HOU – Hampton
FLA – Sanchez
DET – Miner
SEA – Silva
KCY – Ponson
ANA – Ortega

Weaver is having a fine season and is coming off a complete-game victory with eight strikeouts. He should be active in all formats but is facing a tough road with a matchup against the Red Sox and a road start in Texas.

In his last two starts Galarraga has given up 11 ER in 11 IP with five strikeouts and three home runs allowed. His 4.09 BB/9 is nothing to write home about, either.

Hochevar takes Soria’s spot on the roster and Ponson’s spot in the rotation. He was 5-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Triple-A. Hochevar had 30 strikeouts and 10 walks in 40 innings at Omaha.

After getting bumped to the bullpen when Moehler came off the disabled list, Paulino returns to the rotation taking Ortiz’ spot. In three games as a starter, Paulino has a 2.55 ERA. In three games as a reliever his ERA is 21.00.

Vargas gets a spot in the rotation after picking up a win in two appearances as a reliever. He averaged 9.14 K/9 in 21.2 IP at Triple-A and has four strikeouts in 3.2 IP with Seattle.

Never a big strikeout pitcher, Koronka punched out 24 batters in 27 innings at Triple-A. However, he gave up four home runs in that time span.

After last week’s bonanza of two-start pitchers, there are considerably fewer to choose from this week. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Kevin Slowey – Is off to a poor start this year and things do not look to get any easier this week. His first start is against the Tigers, against whom he has a 5.74 lifetime ERA. His second start is in New York, where the Yankees have hit 23 HR in 13 games. Slowey has a 1.57 HR/9 so far this year.

Justin Masterson – He has had two rough starts in a row and has to go on the road in both starts this week. But both starts he got beat up in his last inning and I like him this week in his matchups against Anthony Ortega and Carlos Silva.

Mike Pelfrey – He does not strike anyone out and the ERA is terrible. But after taking time off for a strained forearm, Pelfrey is 3-0 with 4.00 ERA. With starts at Citi Field and AT&T Park, Pelfrey should be able to keep the ball in the park and continue to lower his ERA.

Jordan Zimmermann – After allowing six runs in the first inning of his last start, Zimmermann pitched five scoreless frames and limited further damage, a nice thing to see from a young pitcher. Like Pelfrey he’s had trouble with the HR ball, but hopefully a road start in San Francisco followed by a home start will limit that damage.

Mike Hampton – After three solid starts to begin the year, Hampton has been knocked around in his last three outings. Expect that trend to continue with road starts at Colorado and at Chicago.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Halladay, Peavy, Lowe, Burnett, Harden, Cain, Kershaw, Floyd, Johnson, Duke, Jimenez, Arroyo, Garland, Parra, Sonnanstine, Wellemeyer, Moyer, Sanchez, Pavano, Feldman, Cabrera, Miner, Park, Silva, Sowers, Ponson, Hendrickson, Ortega.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 4 and how they did.

Blanton – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a bad one, as he allowed 6 ER in 4.1 IP. In his next start, which was pushed back to Week #5, Blanton picked up win while allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Jackson – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one, with 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday. He pitched six scoreless innings and then gave up five runs in the seventh.

Lohse – Advised to sit. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one. 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday and he gave up 6 ER in 4.1 IP.

Young – Advised to sit. Finally one who pitched two starts. He allowed 9 ER in 10 IP.

Zito – Advised to start. He made two starts, pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 3 ER.

While visiting the Los Angeles Times to read the story about Manny Ramirez failing a drug test, I came across another article in the sports section about Gary Matthews Jr. Columnist Mike DiGiovanna wrote on Matthews being a productive bat in the lineup once given a chance to play with Vladimir Guerrero on the disabled list.

DiGiovanna wrote: “Matthews has started 15 of the team’s 26 games and entered Wednesday batting .288 with 12 runs batted in. He has as many RBIs in 59 at-bats as Bobby Abreu has in 96 at-bats.”

Since Matthews is owned in only 1.5 percent of ESPN leagues, is he a good candidate to pick up? Especially with Abreu rostered in 100 percent of ESPN leagues? Since they have such unequal playing time, let’s look at their rate stats (rather than fantasy stats) to discover their fantasy prospects. Here are the respective AVG/OBP/SLG marks for Matthews and Abreu in 2009:

M – .270/.314/.349
A – .343/.405/.394

Clearly, Abreu has been the better hitter so why is he doing so poor in RBI chances compared to Matthews? It is not by home runs, since neither player has hit one out so far. Here are their numbers when they come to the plate with men on base:

M – 30 PA 12 RBIs .346/.367/.500 (0.40 RBIs per plate appearance)
A – 50 PA 12 RBIs .375/.480/.450 (0.24 RBIs per plate appearance)

And here are their lifetime marks with men on base.

M -1758 PA 386 RBIs .259/.339/.416 (0.22 RBIs per plate appearance)
A – 3704 PA 976 RBIs .324/.433/.532 (0.26 RBIs per plate appearance)

So it’s not that Abreu is doing bad, it’s that Matthews has done a great job of converting his chances in 2009. But seven of his 12 RBIs came in two games. On May 1st, he had four RBIs, thanks mostly to a bases-loaded triple. On May 5th he had three RBIs, thanks to a two-run double and an infield single.

As you might guess, Matthews has an excellent clutch score this season. He is second on the Angels with a 0.63 mark. That would be the 11th-best mark in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Abreu is sixth on the team with a 0.06 mark. Both players have clutch scores all over the map throughout their careers.

What seems curious is manager Mike Sciscioa’s decision to move Matthews to second in the lineup. A player with a below-average on-base percentage combined with an above-average slugging with men on base seems like a better fit lower in the order.

With Garrett Anderson gone, someone has to take the role on the Angels of driving in runs while hurting those who come up behind him by not getting on base. That snark aside, the RBIs by Matthews are real and they help both the Angels and your fantasy team.

However, do not rush to add him to your lineup. Matthews has had a couple of timely hits with men on base. But history has proven that Abreu is more likely to contribute in these situations and to give those behind him a chance to drive in runs, too. And while Matthews has been a plus in RBIs this season, he has been average or worse in AVG, SB and HRs. And his .270 average comes despite a .347 BABIP, 46 points above his career mark.

Judging by his past performance, Matthews is much more likely to hurt you in those three categories going forward than he is to help you in RBIs.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Kosuke Fukudome for Justin Upton trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jose Guillen – Much like Raul Ibanez, Guillen goes through streaks where he just crushes the ball. In 2008 he had a 31-game stretch where he batted .369 with 8 HR and 29 RBIs. In 2007 he had a 53-game stretch where he batted .336 with 10 HR and 42 RBIs. He was hurt in 2006 but in 2005 he had a 30-game stretch where he batted .327 with 8 HR and 21 RBIs. So what, you may be thinking, you can find lots of guys with streaks like that if you cherry pick the end points. Well, how many of those guys are likely to be on the waiver wire or not valued highly by their current owners? Guillen spent a couple of weeks on the disabled list but now looks like he’s going on one of those hot spells. Get him and enjoy a month of great production at very little cost to you.

Cliff Lee – Okay, with a 1-4 record and an ERA approaching four, Lee is not going to win the Cy Young Award this year. But his peripherals show a pitcher who should be solid from here on out. Lee has a 2.80 K/BB ratio, his HR/9 is at a nice 0.69 percent and the 90.9 he is averaging on his fastball is a career best. Lee is being hurt by a .364 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .304 and he has never had a mark over .315 in his career.

Kendry Morales – After failing to win a full-time job the past three seasons, Morales fell into the “Overrated Cuban Star” category. But with little competition for the first base job, Morales figures to get 500 or more at-bats this season. And the last two years at Triple-A, he has a .341 batting average. He is probably not a threat to hit 30 HR, but a guy who can hit .315 with 20-25 HR in your corner infield slot is not a bad thing to have.

Rich Harden – The usual MO with Harden is he’s great when he’s healthy but you have no idea how long he’ll be able to hold it together. This year he’s been (knock on Kerry Wood) healthy, but the results have been less than stellar, with two of his five starts being pretty awful. Right now he is being really hurt by walks and the long ball. Harden always walks his fair share of batters but the HR rate is likely to go down. He has a lifetime HR/9 of 0.73 and only once has he posted a rate over 1, with his 1.05 mark in seven games in 2007. Right now, Harden’s HR/9 sits at 1.82 after five starts. If you need to make up ground in pitching, this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble to consider.

Troy Tulowitzki – A 4-for-39 stretch is really dragging down Tulowitzki’s overall numbers at this point. But I like the .200 ISO and I just cannot see the combination of a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and a .245 BABIP lasting for much longer.

Trade

Hunter Pence – If you were going to describe Pence, how would you do it? Is he an average hitter or a HR guy or a SB threat? Perhaps he contributes in every category but does he really help you in any of them? His batted ball profile (12.8% LD, 60.3% GB, 26.9% FB) suggests average hitter, but he has a .300 AVG with a .319 BABIP. It is hard to imagine the average staying that high going forward. It looks like 2008 is the high end of what to expect from Pence, and that is only if he can keep his HR/FB ratio in double digits, something no one else of the 18 players with a GB rate over 50 percent was able to accomplish last year.

James Shields – The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, the home runs allowed are up and yet somehow Shields’ ERA is almost identical to where it was a year ago. It is funny what a .245 BABIP and an 81.7 percent strand rate can do for a fellow. Sell high before the hits start falling in against him.

Magglio Ordonez – The batting average will probably rebound some but the power is gone. He hit two home runs in April, which was the eighth-straight month in which he failed to hit more than five homers. See if you can find someone who remembers 2007-vintage Ordonez and views him as a buy-low candidate.

Jason Marquis – It was hard to imagine a worse fit than Marquis pitching in Colorado. He had a lifetime 1.42 WHIP and a 1.51 K/BB ratio. So of course right now he is sitting at 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.42 K/BB and a 1.19 WHIP. It is going to be hard to find someone who wants to trade for him, but at the very least ask around and see if you can find a taker.

Jeff Francoeur – All we hear these days is how newspapers are in trouble. Papers are either shutting down or are on life support. Even the venerable Boston Globe is on shaky ground. But you never hear anything about the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And that is because they write at least one glowing article on Francoeur per week. He has reworked his swing and he is not striking out. This is a player that it seems people are actively rooting for to do well. Yet his average is nothing to get excited about and he is not hitting for great power. And it is debatable if he is going to maintain a K% less than half of his career average going forward.

*****

We are discussing having either a mail bag or a live chat to answer trade questions. So, instead of posting trade proposals and asking for feedback, please respond as to which of the two formats you would prefer seeing. A mail bag is easier on our end and is something we could get going sooner. A live chat offers a much quicker response but will require the RotoGraphs authors to coordinate our schedules, which may not match yours.

As always, comments on the individual players listed here are welcome and encouraged.

Here is the latest update to Week 5 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update
HOU – Oswalt
ANA – Saunders
STL – Lohse
NYY – Hughes
NYM – Maine
PHI – Blanton
WAS – Lannan
WSX – Colon
MIL – Suppan
TOR – Cecil
LAD – Weaver
HOU – Moehler

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts
NYM – Santana
NYY – Burnett
PHI – Hamels
WSX – Buehrle
STL – Boggs
LAD – McDonald
HOU – Paulino
WAS – Cabrera
HOU – Ortiz
ANA – Ortega
TOR – Burres

A fair number of stars, like Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana, are slated for two starts in Week 5. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Josh Beckett – Ordinarily he would be a no-brainer pick for your lineup, even if he had just one start in a week. But Beckett’s been unimpressive since his Opening Day outing. Since then he’s pitched 17.2 innings and allowed 22 earned runs. It is always a risk to take a horse like Beckett out of the lineup, but two starts of lousy pitching this week is something of which to be wary. His two games are at New York and versus Tampa Bay.

Chris Volstad – He has a 2.67 ERA overall and in his last start allowed just two runs in seven innings while he struck out five batters. Bench him anyway. Volstad has a tough matchup with Edinson Volquez in his first start and then he has to go to Colorado for his second outing, always a tricky place for pitchers and not one that a hurler who has allowed five home runs in 30.1 innings should particularly relish.

Mark Buehrle – The veteran has been extremely effective so far this season, as he has allowed two, one, three and two earned runs in his four outings. Buehrle also is doing a better than usual job of striking out batters, as he has notched 17 Ks in 24 IP. His first start is at Kansas City and then he returns to Chicago for a matchup with Texas.

Paul Maholm – I am going with my gut on this one. His first start is against the Brewers, who roughed up Maholm in his last outing. I like pitchers who get a quick shot at revenge against a team that just beat them. Plus, Pittsburgh has to beat Milwaukee one of these days, right? The losing streak is up to 15 games now. In his second start, Maholm goes up against Livan Hernandez and the Mets at Citi Field.

Felipe Paulino – A pinched nerve in his shoulder kept Paulino out for virtually the entire 2008 season. He opened this year in the minors but was promoted when Brian Moehler hit the DL in mid-April. Since then the 25-year old with the 95 mph fastball has been solid, despite his 0-2 record. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and has yet to allow a HR. Unfortunately, his teammates have provided him with only four runs in three games. His first start is at Washington and then he returns home to face off against San Diego.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Santana, Greinke, Gallardo, Hernandez, Kazmir Burnett, Johnson, Lester, Wainwright, Vazquez, Bedard, Harang, Dempster, Volquez, Hamels, Chamberlain, Myers, Garza, Millwood, Floyd, Liriano, Jackson, Scherzer, Carmona, Sanchez, Davies, Uehara, Marshall, Davis, Snell, Cook, Reyes, Blackburn, Porcello, Braden, Kawakami, Stults, Tallet, Anderson, Padilla, Boggs, Olsen, McDonald, Hernandez, De la Rosa, Cabrera, Correia, Ortiz, Geer, Loux, Eaton, Ortega and Burress.

In 2008, Kevin Youkilis had a season completely out of line with what he did previously. Everyone focused on the home run power, as his 29 homers matched his combined total from 2007 and 2008. But Youkilis also enjoyed a career-best average last season, as he posted a .312 mark. His previous high was the .288 he posted in 2007.

Because of his big 2008, Youkilis was one of the more difficult players to project. The Bill James forecast was the most optimistic, and it had him with a .289 average and 23 home runs. The CHONE system had him with a .286 average and 18 home runs.

Of course, Youkilis is off to a great start here in 2009. One of the biggest grey areas in fantasy is determining when we can project that it is more than a hot start and more likely to be something to last the whole season.

I think we may have reached that point with Youkilis and his average.

I took all of the players in 2008 who qualified for the batting title and who batted plus or minus five points from the .286 average that CHONE predicted. I came up with a group of 26 players. Then I took all of the players from this group and counted how many hits they had through 75 at-bats last season.

Our 26 players ranged from 16 to 27 hits in their first 75 at-bats last season. It is not a perfect bell curve but the right side of it does display a standard downward-sloping tail as you can see by the crude chart below:

	x										
	x				x						
	x				x		x				
	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x			
x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27

I came up with an average of 20.7 hits and a standard deviation of 3.1 for this group. So, two standard deviations gives us a high and low of 15 and 27 hits. So, for this definition of a .286 hitter, 95 percent of the time he should have between 15 and 27 hits in 75 ABs.

Youkilis ended play last night with 74 at-bats and 30 hits, meaning he falls outside of our 95 percent range. Our most likely conclusion is that he is a better hitter than the CHONE projection prior to the start of the season.

This is just a first step and I have no projection on what Youkilis will end up hitting in 2009. ZiPS projected Youkilis to bat .288 this season. Dan Szymborski just came out with an update to ZiPS based on 2009 stats. He now projects Youkilis to bat .298 for the rest of the season and finish with a .313 average.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Jarrod Washburn for Justin Verlander trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Justin Upton – A terrible start to the season, where he opened 0-15, has kept Upton’s overall numbers low. But last week he had five hits, including two home runs. Upton likely won’t contribute much in SB but otherwise he should be a four-category star. Last year he was sidetracked by numerous injuries but when healthy in September he had a .919 OPS in 85 PA, having just turned 21 the previous month.

Francisco Liriano – The electric pitcher from 2006 may never come back. However, Liriano has pitched much better than his 7.06 ERA indicates. He has a 4.96 FIP and a lot of the discrepancy can be explained by his dismal 50.4 percent strand rate. His peripherals are slightly worse than both last year and the pre-season projections. You should not trade for him thinking he is a No. 1-type SP. But if his current owner is disgusted with his early-season poundings, he could be a nice No. 2/3-type SP the rest of the season.

A.J. Burnett – The second time through the order against the Red Sox this past Saturday, Burnett got lit up. But the highly-publicized meltdown is obscuring his three other outings this year, in which he had a 3.20 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 20.2 IP. Burnett gave up eight ER twice last year and his main value is not ERA anyway. He is a wins and strikeouts guy and should provide plenty of both for the remainder of the season.

Howie Kendrick – Okay, he is not going to walk and he is not going to appear on the HR leaderboards. But let’s focus on what he can do. Kendrick’s main asset is an AB-heavy high average. His overall AVG sits at just .258 but, much like Upton, he started off the year in a funk, going 10-51. In 1,011 career at-bats, Kendrick has a .303 average in the majors. His ISO sits at .167 which would be a career best. As always with Kendrick it comes down to health. But I like the breakout potential if he can somehow manage 150 games played.

Jon Lester – The 4.88 ERA is not pretty but the FIP is almost exactly what it was a year ago for Lester at 3.66 so far. He is striking out more batters and walking fewer but his HR rate has nearly doubled. Last year’s HR/9 of 0.60 was unsustainable so we should assume that this year’s 1.13 mark is here to stay. But the .384 BABIP should come down significantly, which should help his other numbers.

Trade

Aramis Ramirez – The five projection systems all agreed on Aramis Ramirez, seeing him before the season basically as a .287 hitter with 28 HR. Right now Ramirez has a robust .358 AVG thanks to a .372 BABIP. All of the projection systems showed Ramirez with a BABIP between .289 and .299 for the year. He is not off to a great HR start. Ramirez could still easily meet his HR projection, but it would be nice for his chances to once again top 30 HR if his hot start included more than three homers.

Kosuke Fukudome – Congratulations if you had Fukudome in your lineup so far! Now do yourself a favor and sell. He simply is not going to have a .273 ISO or a .348 AVG or 15+ RBI months going forward. Last April he had a .327/.436/.480 line in April and those numbers declined each month.

Chris Volstad – In the last three seasons, the highest K/9 in Volstad’s career was the 6.64 he posted in 126 innings in the Hi-A Florida State League. He currently has an 8.49 K/9 without a significant increase in velocity or the addition of a new pitch. Additionally his ERA is a nifty 2.70 but his FIP stands at 4.66 so far. If the strikeouts disappear at the same time the hits start falling in, this could get ugly quick.

Brandon Phillips – Many touted Phillips as a top-3 second baseman heading into the season. So you would think a .172 average at the end of April would qualify him for the “Acquire” part of this list. But Phillips was overrated coming into the year based on his 2007 season. Plus this is getting into Robinson Cano territory from last year where the first month was so bad that the rest of the season could not compensate. Obviously, the .189 BABIP and the .078 ISO will go up significantly in the weeks and months ahead. But now is the time to cut your losses if anyone offers good talent in return.

Matt Cain – The past two seasons have been pretty similar for Cain. In 2007 he had a 3.65 ERA and a 3.78 FIP and last year he had a 3.76 ERA and a 3.91 FIP. This year his FIP checks in at 3.97 yet his ERA stands at 2.08. He is succeeding thanks to an 89.7 percent strand rate, which is likely to come down quite a bit. Also, his velocity is down nearly a full point, from 92.4 to 91.5 and his K/9 has dropped from 7.69 to 6.23.

A fair number of stars, like Chad Billingsley and Dan Haren, are slated for two starts in Week 4. But since you are going to start those guys anyway, let’s take a look at some other pitchers you may be on the fence about who are projected for two starts in those leagues with weeks starting on Monday.

Joe Blanton – Yes, he has yet to win a game and holds an ugly 7.31 ERA. He also has two home starts against soft tossers Shairon Martis and Livan Hernandez, pitchers against whom his teammates should be able to provide him with some runs. And Blanton does have 16 strikeouts in 16 innings this season.

Edwin Jackson – In four games this season, Jackson has a nifty 1.04 WHIP along with a 2.77 ERA. This week he gets two home starts. On Tuesday he is scheduled to go against Chien-Ming Wang, who has not been setting the world on fire, and Sunday he goes up against Cliff Lee, who already has three losses on the year.

Kyle Lohse – In home games this year, Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. In his lone road start, he gave up four ER in five IP. In 2008, his road ERA was 1.11 runs higher than his home mark. Lohse has road starts in Atlanta and at Washington this week.

Chris Young – In this week’s Trade Possibilities column, I highlighted Young as a player to move. Some thought that was over the top, given he had just one bad start. This week could be a bad one for Young, as he has road starts in Colorado and at Los Angeles. In the last two years, Young has allowed 11 runs in 18 IP in Coors Field and 16 runs in 16 IP at Dodger Stadium.

Barry Zito – In 2008, Pablo Sandoval caught Zito five times and the lefty had a 3.21 ERA with four quality starts when Sandoval was his catcher. In his last outing, Zito pitched seven scoreless innings with Sandoval behind the dish. Maybe manager Bruce Bochy, a former catcher, can connect the dots and make Sandoval Zito’s personal catcher on a full-time basis. Zito has home starts against the Dodgers and Rockies.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Billingsley, Sabathia, Zambrano, Haren, Shields, Danks, Oswalt, Lilly, Lee, Meche, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Verlander, Millwood, Cueto, Wolf, Maine, Penny, Baker, Guthrie, Wakefield, Wang, Bush, Webb, Purcey, Pineiro, Looper, Lannan, Anderson, Niemann, Bannister, Martis, Hernandez, Richmond, Loux, Hammel, Jakubauskas, Geer and Harrison.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off an Emilio Bonifacio for Gil Meche trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Chris Iannetta – The very limited track record in the majors and his .111 average makes Iannetta someone his current owner may want to move. The .067 BABIP and the .222 ISO are reasons you want to get him.

Justin Verlander – He is averaging over 95 mph with his fastball, the highest rate in his major league career. Verlander’s SO/BB ratio of 2.86 is also a career best. So, how does he have an 0-2 record with a 7.88 ERA? He has a .389 BABIP and a 38.8 LOB%. His FIP checks in at 3.88 this season. The Tigers are sixth in defensive efficiency rating in 2009, so we are looking at a lot of bad luck here.

Curtis Granderson – He is striking out at 17.3 percent, which would be his lowest total in the majors. But the hits are just not falling in yet, as his .220 BABIP will attest. Granderson has a lifetime .335 mark in the category. I am a little surprised at him having just one stolen base attempt (successful) but he has only eight singles and four walks so far, so Granderson has not had a ton of opportunities yet.

Carl Pavano – Sure, at this point Pavano is better known for his DL stints and for dating Alyssa Milano. But there is a pitcher inside trying to get out. If someone took a flier on him on Draft Day, they are no doubt disgusted by his 9.69 ERA. But Pavano has pitched decent in two of his three starts this season, all three of which have come on the road. After getting bombed in his first start at Texas, Pavano has a 3.75 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk in 12 IP at Kansas City and at New York. At one point in his life, Pavano was an 18-game winner.

Carlos Lee – With a .244-2-8 line so far this season, Lee is hardly doing awful but it is possible that an owner might be just a tad worried. This is one of the most consistent .300-30-100 guys around and if you can get him at any kind of discount at all, pull the trigger on the deal.

Dump

Carlos Pena – He is second in the majors with six home runs and tied for third with 15 RBIs which should make him very attractive to other owners. But call me crazy, I just do not think he can maintain a .680 SLG. Before the season, Pena was targeted almost exactly alike by all five projection systems, which saw him as a .255-31-77 kind of guy.

Chris Young – This is All-Star Chris Young, the Padres pitcher with the 2-0 record with 14 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. If you cannot trade him, at least take him out of your lineup whenever he makes a road start. Both wins this year have come at home, where he has a 1.38 ERA. Young has a 4.86 ERA on the season.

Orlando Hudson – The O-Dog is riding high, including the first cycle by a home player at Dodger Stadium. Hudson is doing everything you want a fantasy player to do, hitting for average, power and stealing bases. Too bad it cannot last. This is an injury-prone player, one who plays in the middle infield where he is likely to get banged up at some point in the season. But even if he stays healthy, Hudson is not likely to have a .400 BABIP or hit much better than his numbers away from Chase Field the past three seasons, where he batted .274/.339/.392 in 835 plate appearances.

Jarrod Washburn – Since winning 18 games with a 3.15 ERA in 2002, Washburn has pitched six seasons (175 starts), has not won more than 11 in a year and has posted an ERA above 4.32 in five of them. See if someone might be enticed by his 2-0 record with a 1.29 ERA.

Miguel Tejada – That .360 batting average sure looks nice. Too bad it is accompanied by no home runs and only one RBI. The power is gone and that gaudy average will not last.