Fantasy owners are always scouring the waiver wire looking for pitchers for the back of their staff. One pitcher gaining a lot of buzz for his performance so far is Rangers RHP Tommy Hunter. In six starts with Texas this season, Hunter is 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA. He has gone at least five innings in each start this year and has yet to allow more than three runs in a game.

Hunter is not overpowering; he tops out in the low 90s with his fastball and averages 89.1 with his heater. But he still manages to get strikeouts with the pitch – he got two Ks on fastballs in his last outing – because of his varied repertoire. Hunter also has a curve ball and a change-up. And depending on which source you prefer, he also throws either a slider or a cutter. FanGraphs does not show him throwing a slider this year but has him throwing a cutter nearly 24 percent of the time. Dan Brooks’ wonderful PitchFX site shows Hunter striking out three in his last outing versus Detroit with a slider and throwing 26 of them overall, with no cutters.

It all seems very encouraging for Hunter but from a fantasy perspective owners should not be in a rush to go out and pick him up. He is thriving now thanks to the 1-2 combo of a low BABIP (.251) and a high strand rate (90%). Hunter checks in with a 1.75 K/BB ratio (which would rank in the lower third of MLB pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify) and his HR/FB rate of 6.5 percent is below average.

When we see numbers like that, the most likely explanation is an unsustainable hot start. Hunter’s FIP is 3.97 and the low HR rate indicates his xFIP would be even worse. We know with a large enough sample size that regression will push Hunter’s numbers worse in these categories. We just do not know when it will actually happen. With just two months left in the season, it is even possible that regression will not hit until 2010.

Hunter would not be the worst option for fantasy owners to pick up from the waiver wire. But at the same time one should acquire him with the knowledge that he is much more likely to post an ERA twice as high than the one he has recorded so far this season.

Fans and analysts did not consider Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil as one of the elite rookie pitchers coming into the season but he did have some buzz surrounding him. He made Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects List (#72) while also earning a B+ grade from prospect maven John Sickels.

Cecil started off 2009 in the minors but was promoted in early May. He made four consecutive starts for Toronto and pitched well in three of them before the Red Sox hammered him on May 20th. Two days later the Blue Jays optioned him to the minors, where Cecil spent the next month.

Upon his return to the majors, Cecil tossed a Quality Start against the Nationals but then posted two poor outings around a relief appearance. Prior to the All-Star break, it looked like 2009 was shaping up to be nothing more than a learning season for the rookie from Maryland.

But in his last three outings, Cecil is 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 20 innings. What, if anything has changed for Cecil in his last three outings? Let us take a look at his PitchFX numbers to see if we can notice any trends.

Fastball

Slider

Cecil simply was lacking velocity on both his fastball and his slider in his July 5th outing, one of three poor outings this year for him. So far this season, Cecil has pitched in 11 games, making 10 starts. He has hurled seven Quality Starts but has been hit hard the other three starts, which has made his overall numbers seem mediocre.

After getting lit up for four runs in the first inning of his start against the Reds on June 25th, the Blue Jays moved Cecil to the bullpen. He might still be there, except for Scott Richmond’s shoulder injury. That led to a return to the rotation for Cecil and his poor outing on July 5th versus the Yankees.

According to the Blue Jays’ official site, the team activated Richmond from the DL Tuesday night. Cecil will remain in the rotation, as Toronto sent Dirk Hayhurst to Triple-A to make room on the roster, while Brian Tallet moved to the bullpen to create a rotation spot for Richmond.

Cecil’s last three outings have earned him a longer look in the Blue Jays’ rotation and he is someone for fantasy owners to take a flier on, as he is available in 72 percent of CBS Sports leagues and over 98 percent of ESPN leagues.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Miguel Montero and trade Todd Helton last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Ben Francisco – Since the end of June, Francisco has been playing virtually every day, most often in left field and with occasional starts in center. In his last 25 games he has a .289/.421/.539 line. He has some room for growth in his HR output and could exceed RoS ZiPS forecast of five dingers. Francisco is owned in only 13 percent of CBS Sports leagues and has the ability to contribute in all five categories, although he is not likely to offer very much in AVG.

Jonathon Niese – The overall Triple-A numbers do not overwhelm you but he won his last five decisions for Buffalo. In his last eight starts in the International League, Niese went 5-1 with a 0.96 ERA, with 13 BBs and 46 Ks in 56.1 innings. In his first start since being promoted, Niese limited the Astros to one run in seven innings in a start at the Juice Box, and retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced.

Ryan Garko – With the trade to the Giants, Garko should receive regular playing time as the team’s new first baseman. He mashes LHP (.960 OPS this year) and holds his own versus RHP (.772 OPS). That is not great production for a first baseman but with the Giants in need of an upgrade for Travis Ishikawa, it should be enough to keep him in the lineup, something he struggled with in Cleveland. RoS ZiPS sees him with six HRs, a total I would bump up with the playing time boost.

John Lannan – In his last 10 starts, Lannan is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA but with only 21 Ks in 73.2 innings. I seriously question whether any pitcher can succeed long term with a strikeout rate this low but I believe he can do it for the remainder of the season. From a fantasy perspective it is difficult to advocate a pitcher who has virtually no chance to help in strikeouts but for some odd reason the guys near the top of the leaderboards in Ks are rarely available in trades or on the waiver wire. Lannan is a player who should not cost much who has the potential to help in ERA, WHIP and W.

C.J. Wilson – Usually I avoid mentioning relievers because this is one area where most people are watching the waiver wire like hawks. Yet Wilson has the closer’s role in Texas while Frank Francisco is on the DL and is owned in only 35 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Now Francisco is not expected out for long because of his bout with pneumonia but he has also had problems with tendinitis, so you never know. Wilson should be an immediate add if you set a daily lineup.

Exchange

Garrett Jones – You would have to be living under a rock to miss the slugging exploits of Jones, who has 10 HR in 88 ABs for the Pirates. That has led to some far out numbers, like a .761 SLG, a .432 ISO and a 1.140 OPS. But he also has a 34.5 percent HR/FB rate which will be a tad difficult to maintain going forward. Last year Jones looked like he was going to settle in for a long career as a AAAA slugger. No one doubts that he has power and can be a useful MLB player. But he has little chance of being a star and owners should see if he has any trade value in their league.

Johan Santana – When owners drafted Santana, they were expecting him to be one of the top starters in the game. He was great in April but has struggled to keep that pace since then. Santana has been very good but the production has not matched either the draft slot or the name value. He is 3-4 in his last seven games and has given up 15 runs despite two scoreless appearances. Santana closed 2008 with a great run and he has the ability to do that again. But owners owe it to themselves to explore his trade value and if he can return third-round level value, well that exceeds what Santana has produced so far in 2009.

Erick Aybar – In his last 17 games, Aybar is batting .471 with 16 RBIs, 13 R, and 3 SB. His trade value may never be higher. His BABIP checks in at .347, 30 points above his lifetime mark in the category. Aybar stole 32 bases in Triple-A in 2006 but has just 26 combined thefts between the majors and minors since then in two and a half seasons. And his lifetime .095 ISO tells you he is not likely to contribute any HR, either.

Randy Wells – It has been an impressive year so far for Wells, with 10 Quality Starts in 14 games. But I am concerned about him being able to maintain his current walk rate, which is under two per game. Also, in two full seasons at Triple-A, Wells’ strand rate was under 70 percent both times but so far this year it checks in at 78.9 percent. Add in a BABIP and a HR/FB rate both slightly below average and it adds up to a pitcher who could fall off some down the stretch.

Shane Victorino – He is unlikely to match last year’s totals in either HR or SB. Yet Victorino has been just as valuable a fantasy player because he is on pace to set career-highs in AVG, R and RBIs. Victorino’s BABIP of .342 is 24 points above his previous career best mark in the category. Also, he is walking more than he has previously in his career. Regression in BABIP would hurt him across the board.

The Jeff Francoeur hype machine never ceases to amaze me. The new meme is that Francoeur is producing because he is freed of the pressure of playing in front of the hometown crowds in Atlanta.

Now, make no mistake, Francoeur is off to a good start and has produced since being acquired by the Mets just prior to the All-Star break. In 12 games for New York, Francoeur has posted a .327-2-14-2-0 fantasy line.

But let us set aside that the only two runs he has scored have come on home runs (that probably has more to do with the Mets’ offense than it does with his zero walks) and instead focus on the two categories that Francoeur is doing well: AVG and RBIs.

Francoeur’s .327 AVG comes with a .333 BABIP, which is 30 points above his lifetime mark in the category. He made his reputation in the first 70 games of his career, when Francoeur posted a .341 BABIP. In 2007, when he drove in 105 runs and batted .293, Francoeur had a .342 mark. To have a good AVG for fantasy, Francoeur needs a very high BABIP.

While he has shown the capability to post those high marks, we have to counter that with the .286 mark in 2006, the .277 mark last year and the .281 mark in 82 games with Atlanta this season.

Meanwhile, 14 RBIs in 12 games is a nice streak. But while some might point to this as a reflection of Francoeur’s ability to come through with men on base, more rational people will see that it is a hot streak coinciding with very fortunate RBI opportunities.

In just over half of his plate appearances with the Mets, Francoeur has batted with runners on base (27-52). If we look at the three hitters the Mets hoped would make up the heart of their order, we see this is pretty typical. David Wright (219-421), Carlos Beltran (142-280) and Carlos Delgado (59-112) all had between 51-53% of their PA with runners on base.

Where we see the difference is with the breakdowns of where the runners were on base. The following numbers are from Baseball Prospectus, with OBI% defined as “Others Batted In Percentage — the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter’s plate appearances. OBI is distinguished from RBI (runs batted in) in that OBI does not credit the batter for his own scoring on a home run. In otherwords OBI = RBI – HR”

The contrast between Francoeur and Wright is striking, with 60 percent of Francoeur’s runners on base being in scoring position. Francoeur being hot in this stretch has led to a 30 percent rate of driving others in, a mark that would easily lead the majors. Currently, Bobby Abreu has the top overall mark with a 22.3 percent mark. In 2008, David DeJesus led the way by driving in 21.5 percent of other runners.

By contrast, this season with the Braves Francoeur drove in a little over 12 percent of other runners in, as only 49 percent of runners on base were in scoring position. Below are Francoeur’s RBI numbers in previous years with the Braves.

Prior to last season, we see Francoeur being pretty stable in his OBI%, with the two higher percentages in 2005 and 2007 corresponding to the years where he had higher BABIPs.

Since joining the Mets, Francoeur is swinging at more pitches in the strike zone (88%-80.3%) and making more contact on those swings (92.4%-88.1%). But even in our small Mets sample, we see he is still swinging at 35.5 percent of pitches outside the zone and is still having trouble with harder pitches.

Pitch Type Values shows him with nearly identical poor rates versus both fastballs and sliders per 100 pitches while with the Mets as what he did earlier with the Braves. Apparently, he has done most of his damage in New York versus curve balls and changeups. This should be a pretty simple thing for advance scouts to identify and for pitchers to implement versus Francoeur going forward.

Francoeur has been an asset for the Mets since the team acquired him. But do not think he can be the same thing for your fantasy team. Neither the 60 percent of baserunners in scoring position nor the 30 percent of other runners driven in nor the .333 BABIP is likely to last for the rest of the season.

Here is the latest update to Week 17 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
MIL – Dillard
WSN – Balester

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CUB – Harden
BAL – Hill
MIL – Burns
KCR – Chen

Buehrle can be forgiven for wondering what a fellow has to do to get in a fantasy lineup. He is 11-3 and in his last start he pitched a perfect game. Yet at press time he was starting in only 78 percent of CBS Sports leagues, with 16 two-start pitchers this week having a higher percentage. For what it is worth, Buehrle’s FIP is 4.21 compared to a 3.28 ERA this season.

Dempster is slated to be activated this week in time for a Tuesday start against Houston. Dempster has been out with a broken toe. Prior to the injury, Dempster was struggling to match last year’s output, as he allowed more home runs and had a lower strand rate than a season ago. However, Dempster had been on a roll, with Quality Starts in six of his last seven outings before the injury.

Dillard returned to the rotation after spending all of last season as a reliever. He posted an impressive 10-4 mark in Triple-A but posted only a 3.36 K/9 ratio. A fastball-slider pitcher with little room for error, fantasy owners should not rush out to add him to their squad.

Balester can dial it up to the mid 90s with his fastball and he has a plus pitch with his curve. But he has had trouble parlaying that into success in his limited exposure to the majors. Balester was 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA in Triple-A this year and in his only start with the Nationals he gave up three runs (two earned) in three-plus innings.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17

Jon Garland – Earlier in the year it was pretty easy with Garland. You simply benched him for his home starts and inserted him back in the lineup for his road outings. But Garland in his last five starts has a 2.73 ERA and two of those games have been at home and both were Quality Starts. A home start versus Philadelphia could be dicey, but that should be made up for in a road start in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the punchless Mets.

Tommy Hunter – After getting pounded in his major league debut last season, Hunter has had an impressive five outings for the Rangers in 2009. And yes, he has unquestionably been lucky so far, with a .256 BABIP and an 87 percent strand rate. But I like the 23-year old to maintain his good fortune for at least one more week with home starts against the Tigers and Mariners.

Jason Marquis – Usually I avoid recommending starting the top pitchers. But since not everyone has gotten the memo on Marquis, I figured I would mention him. Can anyone else remember a season where the NL leader in wins after the All-Star break might be available on the waiver wire in your league? Marquis is a free agent in 51.5 percent of ESPN leagues. He does have a blister problem but is scheduled this week for road starts at the Mets and at the Reds.

Joe Saunders – Through the first 15 games of the season, Saunders was living large and was cruising along with an 8-4 record and 3.66 ERA despite rotten peripherals, continuing his path from 2008. But in his last five outings Saunders has a 9.82 ERA and only some fine work by Angels hitters have kept his record at 0-2. Maybe it is a bad stretch or maybe it is regression finally catching up to him, but either way it is hard to put him in the lineup this week for two starts.

Randy Wolf – After undergoing a rough patch in June, Wolf has rebounded with five straight Quality Starts with 25 Ks in 31.2 innings in that stretch. His peripherals still suggest a pitcher benefiting from luck, but owners should role the dice with Wolf this week. He has two road starts, but has been a better pitcher away from Chavez Ravine. Wolf has a 4-2 record with a 2.90 ERA in road games this year, a full run lower than his home ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Wainwright, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Burnett, Beckett, Carpenter, Oswalt, Billingsley, Zambrano, Weaver, Jurrjens, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Shields, Harden, Danks, Washburn, Romero, Arroyo, Pelfrey, Buchholz, Galarraga, Maholm, Zito, Correia, Bannister, Pavano, Moyer, O. Perez, Cahill, Perkins, Padilla, Suppan, H. Bailey, Mazzaro, Stammen, Geer, Hill, Burns, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Roy Oswalt and Tim Stauffer last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Kevin Youkilis – His AVG has taken a big hit since coming off the DL, falling 89 points. But nobody seriously expected him to challenge for .400, either. He is riding a modest six-game hitting streak and more importantly, is showing good power. In his last 16 games, Youkilis has a .281-5-14-13-0 fantasy line. He seems like a good bet to match last year’s power numbers, which many people doubted Youkilis could do again in 2009.

Oliver Perez – I can hear the groans already. Perez is terrible, he has no control and he is just as likely to get shelled as he is to pitch a good game. But in his first two games since being back, Perez has delivered exactly what a fantasy owner should expect from him – a W, good strikeout numbers (8 in 11 IP) and a high but acceptable ERA (4.09). I would recommend not actually watching him pitch, but in his 14 or so remaining starts if Perez delivers 6 W, a 4.00 ERA and his current 7.71 K/9, I think that would be nice production for the back of a team’s rotation from a guy likely available on the waiver wire.

Garret Anderson – Stat heads hate him because he does not walk and posts poor OBP numbers. But fantasy players like his AVG and respectable numbers in other categories. In mid-June, Anderson was hitting just .254 but since then his bat has been heating up. Over his last 30 games, Anderson is batting .336 with 17 RBIs in 107 ABs. He is no longer an everyday player, but Anderson still has the ability to hit for a high AVG and not kill you in the power categories.

Mat Latos – This week’s Padres pitcher recovering from an injury is Latos. He was ranked as one of the top HS pitchers in the 2006 draft but fell due to signability concerns. The Padres took him on the 11th round and he ended up at Broward CC. After a good JuCo season, San Diego gave him a seven-figure signing bonus before the ’07 draft. Latos missed most of the 2008 season with a strained intercostals muscle. But he was very impressive this season in the minors, going 8-1 with 1.37 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 72.1 innings combined between Single-A and Double-A, with the majority of his work occurring in the Texas League. Latos has already made one start for the Padres, where he showed a fastball that averaged 94.9 mph. He is on a strict pitch count for right now, which may limit his W potential, but he is a talented pitcher who may be under the radar of many fantasy owners.

Miguel Montero – For most of the first three months of the season, Montero was a huge disappointment. But he has a .413/.439/.683 slash line over his last 16 games. After teasing fantasy owners with glimpses of talent the past two seasons at the major league level, Montero apparently is putting it together here in July.

Exchange

Todd Helton – After last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Helton has bounced back with an impressive .324 AVG. In his last 22 games, Helton is batting .346 but it is the “emptiest” .346 you are likely ever to see. He has just 1 HR, 10 RBIs and 8 R in that span and 0 SB. Helton’s .359 BABIP is not out of line with marks he has put up in his past but it would surprise virtually nobody if that mark fell some and at this point, AVG is the only category that Helton is a plus player anymore.

A.J. Burnett – The strikeouts are down while the walks and HR allowed are up from 2008. Yet his ERA is 26 points lower than a season ago. Burnett’s FIP checks in at 90 points higher than his ERA. A slightly lower than normal .283 BABIP helps but the big thing right now is a career-best 79.5 percent strand rate. Burnett is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last six games, but that includes 14 shutout innings against the Mets, a team he will not see again this season.

Alfonso Soriano – A .279 BABIP gives hope for a second-half rebound for Soriano, but as R.J. Anderson pointed out earlier in the month, pitchers have altered their approach to Soriano and his season-long slump shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs to Soriano and his numbers have declined across the board. Outside of RBIs, Updated ZiPS has him failing to reach the fantasy numbers he put up in 2007, when he played in 135 games. Soriano is on target for 155 games this year.

Brad Penny – The good news is that he pitches for a team that scores 5.16 runs per game and his FIP is 81 points lower than his ERA. The bad news is that his spot in the rotation is hardly guaranteed. He has been a decent option in deep mixed leagues or AL-only ones, but time appears to be running out. His first start after the All-Star break (5 IP, 6 ER) was not encouraging.

Jonny Gomes – A .304/.395/.549 slash line looks great for a player bound to see more playing time with the injury to Jay Bruce. But Gomes has a .397 BABIP and he is unlikely to maintain his 18.2 HR/FB ratio going forward. Also, the Cincinnati fan base turned on Adam Dunn for his propensity to strike out often. How will they treat a full-time Gomes who has a 32.4 percent K rate this season, which would look right in line with Dunn’s Reds career?

Here is the latest update to Week 16 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

CHC – Lilly
PHI – Blanton
LAD – Schmidt
NYY – Mitre
SD – Stauffer
MIL – Burns
FLA – VandenHurk
KC – Ponson

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

WSX – Danks
KC – Meche
PHI – Moyer
LAD – Weaver
SD – Banks

Lilly is seventh in the majors with a 4.21 K/BB ratio. He has always been a good strikeout pitcher but this season he has a BB/9 ratio under two for the first time in his career. Still, Lilly has been lucky with his 80.4 percent strand rate, which has led to a FIP 64 points above his ERA.

Blanton’s ERA stood at 7.11 after eight starts this season. Since then, he has a 4-1 record with a 2.44 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 59 innings. Seven of his last nine games have been Quality Starts.

Schmidt is poised to make his first start in the majors since June 16, 2007. He has been out since then due to shoulder problems. Schmidt make eight rehab appearances in the minors and was 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he fanned 25 batters in 32.1 innings.

Mitre was 3-1 in seven starts at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He had 35 strikeouts and five walks in 45 innings. Mitre, who pitched for the Cubs and Marlins, has not appeared in the majors since September of 2007.

Stauffer seeks to follow up his fine 2009 major league debut and the schedule maker has given him a favorable week, with a home game against Florida and a road tilt versus Washington.

Burns has a very nice 2.71 K/BB ratio but all of his other numbers are shaky. Fewer than 30 percent of his batted balls are grounders and he has an ugly 2.08 HR/9 mark.

VandenHurk opened the season on the 60-day disabled list with elbow soreness. The 6’5 righty was 4-1 with 2.71 ERA at Triple-A. New Orleans is one of the best pitchers parks in the PCL and VandenHurk was 3-0 with 1.82 ERA at home compared to 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA on the road.

Ponson still averages 91.6 with his fastball. And he is still nowhere close to a relevant fantasy option. In 11 games with the Royals this year, he has a 7.27 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16

Nick Blackburn – This season Blackburn is 5-0 at home and has allowed just one HR in 57.1 IP. On the road he is 3-4 and he has allowed nine HR in 66 IP. With road starts at Oakland and at Anaheim, it might be a good time to pull him from the lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Brett Cecil – The rookie has appeared in nine games for Toronto this season, making eight starts. The overall numbers do not look very good, but he has five Quality Starts. In his three bad outings, one came on the road in Fenway Park and the other came on the road in Yankee Stadium. I like him for a guy to pick up this week for his two home starts against the Indians and the Rays.

Chad Gaudin – You have to like the 9.58 K/9 ratio. Unfortunately, that comes with a WHIP-killing 4.95 BB/9. However, in his last six starts, Gaudin has a 1.115 WHIP and a 3.11 ERA. And with a home start versus Florida and a road start at Washington, Gaudin has a chance to pull out a win or two if he continues his recent strong pitching.

Kyle Lohse – This year Lohse is 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP at home and is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.727 WHIP on the road. Last year in his first year with the Cardinals, Lohse was 8-2 with a 3.32 ERA at home and 1.140 WHIP while away from Busch Stadium he was 7-4 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. With road starts at Houston and at Philadelphia, put Lohse on the bench this week.

Ervin Santana – He got his second win of the season in the Angels’ first game back from the All-Star break, as he allowed just two walks in eight innings. Santana has been on the DL twice this season, first with an elbow injury and more recently due to a triceps injury. But Santana hit 94 on the radar last night and is rounding back into the pitcher he was last year when he posted 16 wins. Get him in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Danks, Lowe, Braden, Floyd, Millwood, Scherzer, Pettitte, Hanson, Price, Smoltz, Meche, Lannan, Davis, Galarraga, Porcello, De La Rosa, Sanchez, Moyer, Niemann, Ohlendorf, Wellemeyer, L. Hernandez, Sadowski, Moehler, Olson, Owings, Richard, Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, D. Hernandez, Jeff Weaver, Swarzak, Lopez, O’Sullivan, Banks.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 14 and how they did.

Contreras – Advised to start. W, 1.42 ERA, 5 K, 1.00 WHIP (1 start)
Garland – Advised to sit. W, 2.57 ERA, 9 K, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start. W, 6.30 ERA, 8 K, 1.80 WHIP (2)
Romero – Advised to start. W, 3.77 ERA, 8 K, 1.40 WHIP (2)
Zimmemann – Advised to sit. 4.35 ERA, 9 K, 1.84 WHIP (2)

Last month, my friend and colleague Derek Carty of The Hardball Times (THT) wrote a provocative article questioning the utility of FIP. Carty wrote, “While the original, underlying premise for FIP is sound, and while it’s absolutely better to use than simple ERA, and while there are certainly uses for FIP in some circumstances, for 99 percent of fantasy purposes, I ignore FIP completely and absolutely.”

Carty proceeded to list pitchers he believed were under and over valued by FIP, mainly due to their HR rate. He suggested that instead of FIP, we use LIPS (Luck Independent Pitching Stats). The problem with LIPS is that it takes a lot of work to calculate and is not freely available on a regular basis.

Since the main beef with FIP is HR rate, it should be relatively similar to use xFIP, a stat invented by THT which they describe as: “Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and ‘normalizes’ the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter (sic) of a pitcher’s future ERA.”

As a general rule, most starting pitchers will have a HR/FB rate around 11 percent in a full season’s worth of pitching. However, there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. In 2008, Cliff Lee had the lowest HR/FB rate with a mark of 5.1 percent while Brandon Backe checked in with the highest at 16.1 percent. In 2007, the low was 4.1 percent while the high was 17.7 percent.

So, from a fantasy owner’s point of view, when evaluating pitchers should you look to normalize HR rate and use xFIP or are you just as likely to come out with a correct answer if you use FIP?

Here at the All-Star break, I have gone through and compiled a list of pitchers who have a difference 0.50 or greater between their FIP (taken from FanGraphs) and their xFIP. This list was done by hand, so it is possible I omitted someone by mistake. Please alert me if you come across someone I missed.

We have 34 people with a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP. Unfortunately, these are not all people you would want to have in a standard 12-team mixed league but the vast majority of these are roster worthy.

At the end of the year, I am going to come back to this list and see which one of these metrics was better for fantasy purposes. I am going to take the midpoint between their FIP and xFIP and compare it to their real life ERA in the second half of the season.

Using Greinke as an example, 2.55 is the midpoint between his FIP and xFIP. So, if Greinke’s ERA in the second half is 3.33, I will count that as a “win” for xFIP. On the flip side, if Greinke’s second half ERA is 2.22, I will count that as a “win” for FIP.

I am curious to find out what the raw score will be. My guess is that it will be fairly close to 50-50, with neither metric enjoying a huge advantage. Perhaps more importantly, I will also look to see if either metric does a better job of predicting a certain class of pitcher.

Regardless of what the results are in 2009, it is only one season’s worth of information.