Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
COL – de la Rosa
CIN – Cueto
MIN – Blackburn
CLV – C. Carrasco

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Wakefield
OAK – Cahill
TEX – Nippert
TOR – Tallet
CIN – Lehr
CLV – Huff
COL – Fogg
MIN – Gabino

Lester has just one decision in his last six outings but has put up a 2.97 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 39.1 innings in that span. Overall, Lester has been pitching better this year than a season ago both by FIP (3.10 – 3.64) and tRA (3.46 – 4.52) but has neither the wins nor the ERA from last year.

de la Rosa has experienced feast or famine recently. He has five Quality Starts in his last eight games and missed another by 1/3 of an inning in an outing where he allowed 0 ER and struck out nine. But in the other two games he permitted 13 ER in 11 IP. Overall de la Rosa remains a good start with 12 W already and a 9.20 K/9 mark.

Cueto is slated to be activated from the disabled list in time to start in Game Two of the Reds’ double header versus the Pirates. Cueto had been sidelined with a sore shoulder. He started the season on fire, going 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA but was 0-6 with a 10.64 ERA in his final eight games before hitting the DL.

Blackburn had an 8-4 record on July 10. Since then he has lost five consecutive decisions and has an 8.22 ERA over eight starts. Just further proof how hard it is to succeed in the majors with a low strikeout rate. Blackburn has a K/9 of 3.79, which is the second-worst mark in the majors.

Carrasco, one of the players acquired from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee trade, is slated to make his major league debut after going 5-1 at Triple-A Columbus following the deal. Carrasco has a good fastball and a plus pitch with his changeup. He pitched into the seventh inning in five of his six starts for Columbus and had 7 BB and 36 Ks in 42.1 IP.

Chances are you have never heard of Joe Serafin, a pitcher in the minors with the Kannapolis Intimidators, the low-A affiliate of the Chicago White Sox. But if Serafin ever makes it to the majors, his story has all of the makings of a Hollywood movie.

Everyone always makes a big deal out of Mike Piazza being a 62nd-round draft pick. Today, the draft does not last that long; still the odds of someone making the majors after the first 10 rounds are slim. The White Sox picked Serafin on the 37th round this past June, the 1,123rd player taken overall.

Furthermore, Serafin was a fifth-year senior. In his final college season he went 4-7 with a 6.26 ERA. And it is not like Serafin was at one of the elite programs. He graduated from the University of Vermont, a program which has sent just 12 players to the majors, only two of which started their careers after the end of World War II.

Perhaps the most famous University of Vermont baseball alum was the last one from the school to reach the majors – Kirk McCaskill. Regardless, Serafin has a chance to be the final Catamount to play in MLB. Vermont AD Robert Corran announced in February that the school was dropping its baseball program following the 2009 season, which was the 110th season the school had a baseball team.

“We found out the week before we left for Vanderbilt to play our first weekend games,” Serafin told Tim Hayes of the Bristol Herald Courier. “Our [athletic director] came out, he’s a big hockey and basketball guy, and read off a piece of paper … It was a very emotional year.”

Another thing adding to the mystique around Serafin is his size. Depending upon the source, he is listed at either 5-10 or 5-11, a height he might reach if he donned some 1970s platform shoes. Serafin resembles someone much more likely to be at a Phish concert than at a Donna Summer show, so his choice of footwear probably had little to do with his “official” height.

This year at Kannapolis, Serafin has an impressive 4.00 K/BB ratio. But before you think of him as a Billy Wagner clone, Serafin does not even crack 90 with his fastball.

“I don’t throw my fastball very hard so I can’t blow it by people,” Serafin told the News and Record. “Up here I’ve been keeping it down in the zone, moving it in and out and hitting corners, which has really led to my success.”

After the draft, the White Sox assigned him to the rookie level Appalachian League and installed him in the bullpen. He got off to a hot start and won the loop’s Player of the Week Award honors by pitching five scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his first two professional games.

That got him into the rotation, where he went 3-1 in five starts with a 1.93 ERA. Once the White Sox executed the Jake Peavy deal and traded away four pitchers, including Dexter Carter, a spot opened up at Kannapolis and Serafin found himself in full-season ball. Saturday night’s win, in which he allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP, upped his record in the South Atlantic League to 3-1 and he has a 7-2 mark overall in his first season in pro ball.

“Since joining the White Sox I have continued to be the same crafty lefty who hits my spots and changes speeds with my curveball, and sometimes a good change up,” Serafin told Shane Bufano of the Vermont Sports Network.

“One day in Bristol during a bullpen (session) my pitching coach taught me how to throw a sinker/2-seam fast ball that tails away and sinks from a right handed hitter. This new pitch allows me to get ground balls in 2-0 counts and I throw it mostly with runners on base to give my infielders a chance to turn a double play. It has been very successful so far.”

The low minors are littered with soft-tossing college pitchers who post good strikeout numbers. Historically, Double-A is the level which weeds out most of these players.

Yet there is a lot to like with Serafin, who has already overcome many obstacles in his career. An undersized lefty, a late bloomer, a low draft pick from a school which no longer plays baseball and a soft tosser all rolled into one.

The only question is who will play him in the movie.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Trevor Cahill – In his last four starts, Cahill has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.037 WHIP. He is not a strikeout threat but could help in the other three categories this week. Cahill has two home starts and he has notched five of his seven wins this season at McAfee Coliseum.

Clayton Richard – His ERA is a disappointing 5.22 since being traded to the National League but he has had just one bad outing in five games for the Padres and carries a 3-1 record. Uncharacteristically, it has been poor control doing him in, as he has allowed 20 BB in 29.1 innings for San Diego. Still, I like him this week in a home start against Washington and a road matchup against the Dodgers and Vicente Padilla.

Jonathan Sanchez – There is a lot of pitching talent here, as the strikeouts and the no-hitter will attest. But he is 2-8 with a 4.81 ERA on the road this season and he has starts this week at Philadelphia and at Milwaukee, against two potent offenses. If you have the pitching depth, see if you can bench Sanchez this week.

Tim Wakefield – In his first start back from the disabled list, Wakefield got a no-decision despite a strong outing. He allowed just one run in seven innings against the White Sox. This week, Wakefield has two road starts, including a return engagement against the Chi Sox. I dislike return matchups against a team a pitcher just handled, so I would keep Wakefield on the bench this week.

Jarrod Washburn – In five starts for the Tigers, Washburn has one good outing, one okay performance and has been hit hard the other three times. He has a home-and-home matchup against the Rays and I expect at least one outing for the Rays to have their way with the veteran lefty. Keep Washburn on the bench this week if possible.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Vazquez, J. Johnson, Burnett, Harden, Hammels, Oswalt, Jackson, Floyd, Wolf, Shields, Pineiro, Wells, Danks, Pettitte, Holland, Pelfrey, Saudners, D. Davis, A. Sanchez, G. Gonzalez, Maholm, Looper, Hochevar, Guthrie, Padilla, Rzepczynski, Fister, Hudson, L. Hernandez, Nippert, Petit, French, Cecil, Tallet, Lehr, Stauffer, Huff, Fogg, Gabino, Wells.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 20 and how they did.

Carmona – Advised to sit. W, 3.00 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.50 WHIP (2 starts)
Parra – Advised to sit. 7.71 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.93 WHIP (2)
Perez – Advised to start. W, 15.88 ERA, 4 Ks, 2.12 WHIP (2)
Price – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2 starts)
Richmond – Advised to start. 5.14 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.29 WHIP (1)

A new innovation has hit the fantasy sports world. An article in the Wall Street Journal by Nando Di Fino details the debut this year of Fantasy Sports Insurance (FSI) which “offers the fantasy owner the ability to recoup league fees and all other related costs if one of their star players falls to an injury and misses the bulk of the season.”

FSI is starting off this year with football, but has plans to expand to other fantasy sports, including baseball.

The idea began with last year’s Week One injury to Tom Brady, one of the first players picked in fantasy football drafts in 2008. Brady was out for the remainder of the season and his injury sunk the hopes of many fantasy teams. For 2009, FSI (with the help of Lloyd’s of London) is offering insurance for the top 50 players in the NFL.

Owners have three options on how to insure their players. Two of these involve coverage on one person while a third choice offers protection if three players combine to miss 15 games.

The cost of the coverage depends mainly on entry fees and transaction fees for the individual league, although other expenses factor into the equation.

Most people who I have talked with about this idea have had the same reaction, which basically amounts to, “Wish I had thought of it first!”

It seems like an idea perfectly tailored for fantasy football, where season-ending injuries early in the season seem like an annual occurrence. But will it transfer to fantasy baseball? Plenty of season-ending injuries happen in baseball, but most of those happen later in the season.

Also, as fantasy players, do we really want another dilemma? It is hard enough with the fantasy team versus real team conflict that we all face. Our fantasy team pitcher is going up against our favorite team – which side are we on?

If the fantasy insurance idea takes off, we will be faced with the possibility of rooting for an injured player to not make it back. Instead of checking RotoTimes for news of rehab assignments, we will instead be hoping for visits to see Dr. James Andrews, which will enable us to cash an insurance check and salvage our entrance fee.

Do you think the FSI idea is a good one or bad one? Do you see it succeeding in fantasy baseball? Would you consider purchasing it for any particular player? Please weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Monday night ESPN televised the Tigers-Angels game. Veteran baseball man (and current ESPN Baseball Today co-host) Peter Pascarelli joined Joe Morgan and Jon Sciambi in the booth for a couple of innings. Pascarelli came across well – he had a good voice and brought some opinions to the table. But one thing he said jumped out at me.

Pascarelli was talking about Angels reliever Jose Arredondo and mentioned that a drop in velocity was leading to his disappointing season.

In 2008, Arredondo averaged 93.7 with his fastball and this year his average is down to 92.2 – a noticeable drop and one which seemingly supports Pascarelli’s assertion. Pitch Type Values show Arredondo’s fastball being a plus pitch in 2008 and slightly below average this season. Last year Arredondo had a wFB/C of 1.55 while this year it sits at minus 0.07.

Now, that is unquestionably a noticeable difference. A wFB/C of 1.55 would rank as a Top 20 mark this season for relievers. But is it enough to explain how Arredondo went from a 10-2, 1.62 ERA in 2008 to a 1-3, 5.97 ERA this season? Especially since he averaged 93.94 with his four-seam fastball Monday night, topped out at 95.3 and gave up four runs?

Since Arredondo is a reliever, we are dealing with small samples. Last year he pitched in 61 innings and this year he has just 34.2 through Monday night’s game. However, there is much less difference between the two seasons if we simply examine his FIP. In 2008 Arredondo had a 3.10 FIP compared to a 3.77 mark this season.

When Arredondo came out of nowhere to put up his outstanding 2008 season, he enjoyed a great deal of good fortune. His BABIP was .250 while he posted an 82.2 percent strand rate. And his FIP may have even been underestimating his fortune, as he had a HR/FB rate of 5.8 percent last year.

Flash forward to this season and we see the exact opposite in Arredondo’s fortune. Now he has a .373 BABIP and a 64.8 percent strand rate. And his HR/FB rate has more than doubled to its current 12.5 percent, or slightly above-average rate.

Perhaps Pascarelli is right and Arredondo’s poor season is due to his drop in velocity. Or maybe it was just regression. Either way, smart fantasy owners avoided him on Draft Day and are happy with that decision, even with Arredondo’s increase of two strikeouts per nine innings over a season ago.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Hammel (30%) – Hammel’s overall numbers do not suggest a pitcher who is a worthwhile fantasy option. But this is the classic case of a pitcher to plug into the lineup depending on circumstances and as you might guess for a Rockies pitcher, activate him when he is on the road. This year in home starts, Hammel has 2 W, 7.02 ERA, 35 Ks and a 1.920 WHIP. Meanwhile, away from Coors Field, he has 6 W, 2.88 ERA, 52 Ks and a 1.227 WHIP.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Kyle Blanks (24%) – Power is one of the hardest things to find on the waiver wire so it is refreshing to see someone who is in the lineup virtually on a full-time basis who carries a .247 ISO. Since the All-Star break, Blanks has a .284/.392/.608 slash line in 120 PA. He has 9 HR, 17 RBI and 20 R in 35 games (28 starts) in the second half.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Lastings Milledge (19%) – In a very small sample of 83 PA, Milledge has been decent since returning to the majors with the Pirates. And those numbers would be better if they did not include a 1-for-15 trip to the Windy City. Milledge can hit a few HR and notch a few SB down the stretch and not kill you in AVG. He is an everyday outfielder on the waiver wire with some upside.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Luis Valbuena (3 %) – In the second half of the season, Valbuena has a .298/.365/.521 line in 104 PA. He has 13 RBIs and 17 R in that span, which covers 27 games (25 starts). Currently, Valbuena is riding a 7-game hitting streak and he has 3 HR in that stretch. The 23-year old hails from Venezuela and was acquired by the Indians from the Mariners in the three-team trade this past winter. In the deal Cleveland also picked up Joe Smith from the Mets and dealt away Franklin Gutierrez.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Rajai Davis (47%) – He has very little power but Davis is a big-time SB threat who hits for a good AVG. Since settling in as the A’s starting center fielder, Davis has a .344 AVG with 16 RBIs, 17 R and 14 SB in his last 25 games. For the year he has a .344 BABIP but he also has a 21.1 percent LD rate. The Dutton/Carty xBABIP Quick Calculator gives him an xBABIP of .319 for the season.

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
STL – Pineiro
CHC – Zambrano

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CHC – Harden

Rodriguez has won seven of his last eight decisions. In that span he has a 2.38 ERA with 23 BB and 63 SO in 72 IP. For the season, Rodriguez’ FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA due to an 81 percent strand rate. One thing to keep in mind about Rodriguez is that he pitches much better at home despite Minute Maid Park being a hitter-friendly place. Rodriguez is 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA at home compared to a 5-5, 4.21 road mark. Both of the starts for Rodriguez are on the road.

Pineiro and his major league leading 61.1 percent ground ball rate have two home starts this week. After opening the season 6-9, Pineiro is 6-0 over his last nine starts and he pitched well enough to win two other times in that span. Even with his puny SO rate, Pineiro is a must-start now in all leagues, and the two starts this week is a nice bonus.

Zambrano has been on the disabled list with an injured back but is slated to be activated Tuesday following a minor league rehab start where he pitched five scoreless innings and notched five strikeouts. Before landing on the DL, Zambrano was 3-0 in his last five starts with a 2.93 ERA and 26 SO in 27.2 IP. Zambrano has home starts this week against the Nationals and Mets, the two bottom teams in the National League East.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21

Bronson Arroyo – In his last eight games, Arroyo has seven Quality Starts and a 2.30 ERA. Yet somehow he is only 3-4 in that span. Arroyo has been hurt by the home run ball this year. Overall he has a 1.39 HR/9 and a 13 percent HR/FB rate. But in those last eight games he has allowed just four HR in 58.2 IP. Make sure he is active this week.

Clay Buchholz – In his last three outings, Buchholz has hurled Quality Starts but is only 1-2 in that span. With two home starts this week, look for the strong pitching to continue and expect better luck in the win department for the 25-year old.

Kevin Millwood – On the surface Millwood seems to have a normal, or even below-average HR rate. He has a 1.04 HR/9 mark along with a 9.7 percent HR/FB rate. But he has allowed 11 HR in 69.1 IP in road starts this year. This week he has starts at Yankee Stadium and the Metrodome so keep him on the bench.

Jeff Niemann – It has been a breakout year for Niemann but in the last two months he has started to exhibit some extreme home/road splits. In that span he is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA and a 0.904 WHIP at Tropicana Field. Meanwhile, on the road he is 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP. With two road starts upcoming put him on the bench if you have other options.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Last year, Rowland-Smith pitched very well down the stretch (2.56 ERA in last eight games) when moved from the bullpen. This year he got caught in a numbers game and spent a lot of time in Triple-A. But he is back in the rotation for the Mariners and has reeled off Quality Starts in three of his last four outings. He is a good candidate to pick up and insert into your lineup for his two starts this week at home versus Oakland and Kansas City.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Halladay, Lee, Lester, Cain, Wainwright, Gallardo, Haren, Greinke, Weaver, Harden, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Marquis, Blanton, Baker, Chamberlain, Zito, Latos, Meche, Ohlendorf, Masterson, Tillman, Matusz, Hammel, Snell, Parnell, Contreras, West, Mazzaro, Sowers, Suppan, F. Garcia, Balester.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 19 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to start. 22.50 ERA, 2 Ks, 3.50 WHIP (2 starts)
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.68 ERA, 20 Ks, 1.57 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.32 WHIP (2)
Rzepczynski – Advised to sit. 4.82 ERA, 1 K, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Sanchez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2)

Now that the trade deadline has passed for most leagues, the focus for fantasy players turns exclusively to the waiver wire for new players to add to your team. Here are five players available under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your team for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Leo Nunez (35%) – Most leagues are very effective at combing the waiver wire for saves but Nunez seems to have fallen through the cracks. He has four saves this month for the Marlins and has the added advantage of being a big strikeout guy. Nunez has a mid-90s fastball and an effective change-up, which has led to an 8.25 K/9 ratio this season.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Carlos Gonzalez (22%) – It may be crowded in the Rockies’ outfield, but Gonzalez has forced his way into regular playing time. In his last 15 games, Gonzalez has a .417-5-11-10-1 line. The lefty batter gets the larger half of any platoon role and Gonzalez’ ability to play anywhere in the outfield makes it easier to keep him in the lineup for Colorado.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Dustin Nippert (15%) – The later the season, the more important the counting categories become compared to the ratio ones. Nippert offers owners chances for both Ws and Ks. In his first 10 games for the Rangers, covering six starts, Nippert is 4-1 with a 7.75 K/9 mark. His fastball averages just under 93 mph and Pitch Type Values show his curve ball as a plus pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Angel Pagan (8%) – He is not an impact player in any fantasy category but he can contribute in all of them. In 45 games, and 40 starts, Pagan has 9 SB. This month alone, he has 10 R scored. Pagan has even more value in leagues with daily transactions, as he has a .951 OPS with all 3 HR in his home ball park.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Elvis Andrus (41%) – The soon to be 21-year-old SS is one of the top prospects in the game and he has settled in as an everyday player. In his last 10 games, Andrus is batting .371-1-3-6-3. It would be nice if he was at the top of the order but the SB potential alone is enough to make him a worthwhile add down the stretch.

In two-plus years with the Giants, Barry Zito has been a major disappointment. Forget his massive salary, Zito has a 29-41 record with a 4.72 ERA. The primary catcher for Zito in San Francisco throughout his tenure in the National League is Bengie Molina. It has been suggested more than once that Molina is part of the problem with Zito’s performance, yet he has been behind the plate for 15 of Zito’s 24 starts this season, including eight of his last 10 outings.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy is a former catcher and he should be uniquely qualified to assess how important the individual pitcher-catcher relationship is, one that takes on even greater importance for the club this season as it battles for a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. That Bochy continues to write Molina’s name in at catcher with Zito on the hill tells us his opinion of the matter.

There is no easy way to determine if Molina is hurting Zito because there are so many factors to consider. One of the hardest things to combat is the sample-size problem, especially with the Giants’ preference to have Molina behind the plate as often as possible.

The biggest sample we have is the games pitched by Zito throughout his major league career. There are six catchers who have caught him at least 15 times. Here are the rate stats for those who have caught Zito the most in the majors:

Among the catchers who have caught Zito the most, Molina does not fare very well in any of our categories. But this could easily be because Molina is catching Zito when he is no longer an elite, or even above-average pitcher. To get a better idea we are going to have to compare Molina to the other catchers on the Giants.

So far in his career for San Francisco, Zito has pitched 90 games. Molina has been behind the plate in 65 of those games, or 72 percent. Here is how Zito has fared with Molina behind the plate compared to all of the other catchers Bochy and the Giants have used since 2007:

Molina: 20 W, 33 L, .261/.347/.421 1.45 SO/BB, 32.41 AB/HR
Others: 9 W, 8 L, .242/.315/.366 1.66 SO/BB, 45.75 AB/HR

Here are the breakdowns for the other Giants catchers besides Molina when Zito is on the mound:

In extremely small samples, Zito has appeared much more like the pitcher he was in Oakland with Sandoval or Rodriguez behind the plate. Unfortunately for the Giants, Rodriguez is now in the Baltimore organization.

Bochy and the Giants have apparently made the decision that Sandoval will not be catching anymore. It would be thinking way outside the box for the Giants to take their starting third baseman and make him Zito’s permanent personal catcher but at this point, that may be their best option to get the most value out of Zito going forward.

It is hard to blame the Giants for wanting no longer to expose Sandoval to the rigors of catching. But it is time to pull the plug on Molina being the primary catcher for Zito because the results are simply no good. Zito has a .377 winning percentage in 53 decisions with Molina behind the plate. This is one time where we have enough data to draw a firm conclusion.

Throughout it all, Zito has taken the high road. He has expressed a willingness to continue with Molina as his primary catcher, despite the less than stellar results when the two work together.

But this is a case when the manager has to step in for the good of the team. With the playoffs in the balance and Zito on the mound, Bochy simply cannot put Molina behind the plate if he wants to give his team its best shot to win. Molina should be working out at first base so that Bochy has the option to keep his bat in the lineup when Zito pitches.