Author Archive

Week Three Trade Possibilities

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Yovani Gallardo – It has been an ugly beginning for Gallardo, as he has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 18 IP. His BABIP is a normal .296 and his K/9, which jumped from 8.24 to 9.89 last year, is back to 7.50 after three starts in 2010. But Gallardo has been hurt by a below-average strand rate and some early problems with gopher balls. He has a 64.2 LOB% and an 18.8 HR/FB rate. Gallardo has a lifetime 76.4 LOB% and a 10.3 HR/FB rate. His xFIP of 3.89 is right in line with last year’s 3.76. Other positive signs for Gallardo so far include an increased GB% (50.9) and a drop in BB/9 (down 0.56).

Casey McGehee – There are going to be no shortage of McGehee owners looking to sell high, figuring that neither his .366 BABIP nor his 21.1 HR/FB rate is going to last. But there are reasons to be encouraged about McGehee’s start, too. He has nearly tripled his BB/K ratio, thanks to a more patient approach at the plate. McGehee has a 35.7 Swing% as he has swung at fewer pitches both out of the zone (20.1 to 12.2) and in (64.0 to 58.7). His increased patience has led to an improved Contact%, and his 88.3 rate puts him in the top 20 percent of batters in baseball. Last year McGehee hit fastballs well but struggled against off-speed pitches. This year he is punishing both curve balls and sliders. Acquiring McGehee now will take some finesse and certainly an owner should not pay based on his current numbers. But I like his chances to exceed his (prorated) preseason projections going forward.

Mark Reynolds – Perhaps no player in recent fantasy baseball history had more naysayers coming off a 44-HR season than Reynolds. Even those who expected Reynolds to maintain his power were less sure of his ability to match last year’s AVG or SB totals. The end result was Reynolds being one of the players with the biggest discrepancy in draft results. Some considered him a first-rounder while others had him as the eighth-best third baseman. After 14 games he sits with a .220 AVG and just 1 SB. But Reynolds is not going to maintain either of those paces going forward. His BB/K rate has increased to 0.59 after a 0.34 showing last year. And with a lifetime .338 BABIP, Reynolds will definitely increase his current .207 mark. His HR, R and RBI numbers prorate to similar totals as he had last year. Expect Reynolds to pick up 35 points of average going forward. And while he will not match last year’s SB totals, he should once again reach double digits.

SELL

Chris Coghlan – Owners drafted last year’s Rookie of the Year expecting him to provide a healthy AVG. But a .179 BABIP has produced just a .140 AVG. While Coghlan is certain to increase his BABIP, it is unlikely he can come close to matching last year’s .321 AVG. RoS ZiPS projects him to hit just .278 the rest of the way. And if Coghlan continues to struggle at the plate, a drop in the batting order will come, hurting his R and SB numbers. He has already lost the leadoff spot to Cameron Maybin.

Tommy Hanson – In his rookie season Hanson outperformed both his FIP and xFIP by substantial margins. He is doing it again so far in 2010, perhaps enough to encourage people that it is a repeatable skill on his part. But Hanson is giving up more walks and home runs this season. Right now he is being saved by an 89.1 LOB%. Last year only three qualified pitchers had a LOB% over 80, led by J.A. Happ and his 85.2 rate. Hanson strikes out a ton of batters but once his strand rate regresses, look for his ERA to head towards 4.00 territory. Even with an ERA that high, Hanson is still a valuable commodity. Still, look to see if you can leverage his name value and hot start into a good return.

Luke Hochevar – Last year Hochevar had horrible results despite solid peripherals, which led some analysts to tout him as a sleeper for 2010. And sure enough, he is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA after three starts. But now his luck is good and his peripherals are so-so (or worse), making him a trade candidate. While Hochevar is getting a bunch of ground balls, his strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he is getting fewer swinging strikes. Hochevar is thriving because his HR rate is one-third of what it was in 2009 and his strand rate is 11.6 percent higher than his career average. Hochevar’s FIP (4.14) pegs him as a below-average pitcher and his xFIP (4.69) shows him as one to avoid.

HUNCH

Jon Garland – The move to San Diego has gotten off to a rough start for Garland, who is 0-2 with a 3.60 ERA. And both FIP (6.41) and xFIP (5.45) think he is even worse. His cutter and curve, which were such effective pitches last year with the Dodgers, are getting hammered. But I like Garland to rebound. His current BB/9 of 6.00 is over twice his lifetime mark and should regress significantly. Meanwhile, Garland’s K/9 is the highest it has been since his rookie season. And playing in Petco makes it unlikely his HR/FB rate will continue to be at its current career-high of 16.7 percent. My hunch is that he beats his projected RoS ZiPS in W (9), ERA (4.25) and Ks (100).


Waiver Wire: April 19th

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Burke Badenhop, Florida Marlins (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

Part of the haul received from the Tigers in the Miguel Cabrera trade, Badenhop had a surprisingly effective rookie season in 2009, with both his FIP and xFIP below his 3.75 ERA. Additionally, Badenhop posted a 7.13 K/9 along with a 2.09 GB/FB ratio in 72 IP for the Marlins. In five games so far this year for Florida, Badenhop is bettering all of those marks. He has allowed just 1 ER in 9.2 IP, has 8 SO and a 2.17 GB/FB ratio. He is a late-inning reliever for the Marlins and has already picked up a save this season. Bladenhop should be next in line for Saves should anything happen with Leo Nunez and has the makings of a valuable setup man for owners who like to stock up on non-closers.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (owned in 8% of Yahoo! leagues)

The eighth player selected in the 2009 Draft, Leake advanced to the majors without pitching a single game in the minors. He did pitch in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 1.37 ERA with 15 Ks, 3 BB and 20 hits allowed in 20 IP. So far in the majors, Leake has pitched Quality Starts in both of his outings and has an impressive 2.63 ERA. Walks have been a problem (12 in 13.2 IP), but that is not his M.O. In his junior year at Arizona State, Leake issued just 24 BB in 142 IP. Both his FIP and xFIP are significantly higher than his ERA, as Leake has a low BABIP (.265), a high strand rate (82.6%) and has yet to allow a HR. But he has a spot in the rotation and has room to improve with his walk rate. Leake is not overpowering, so do not expect much help in Ks. But he should be able to take the ball every five days and give his team a chance to win. Leake is a mid-rotation (#3/4) starter available on the waiver wire and should be added in most leagues.

Jim Thome, Minnesota Twins (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

The past two years Thome has been a low AVG slugger and things are shaping up the same way in 2010. He sports a .318 ISO, which speaks as much about his SLG (.545) as it does his AVG (.227). Currently, Thome is in a platoon situation, having just 2 PA versus LHP. That is a situation likely to continue the rest of the season, but one not necessarily much of a handicap for a player who will turn 40 later this year. RoS ZiPS projects him to hit 18 more HR this season, a total not many people on the waiver wire can match.


Week Three 2-Start Pitcher Update

Well, this never happens!

There are no adjustments to the two-start pitchers from Friday. Since this edition usually talks about the new additions from Friday, instead this week let’s focus on the two-start pitchers at the bottom of the barrel, the ones started by the fewest amount of fantasy owners, to see if there is a diamond in the rough.

5. Brad Bergesen (started in 4% of CBS Sports leagues) – Last year in 19 starts in the majors, Bergesen had a 1.55 GB/FB ratio and a nifty 2.34 BB/9, which led to a 3.43 ERA. But Bergesen had a 75.2 LOB% and an 8.3 HR/FB rate, which led to both a higher FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.42). In his two starts in 2010, he has a 0.47 GB/FB ratio and a 3.52 BB/9. Combined with a 15.8 HR/FB mark, Bergesen’s ERA is an ugly 11.74 in 7.2 IP. It is understandable that owners are reluctant to activate him for two starts this week. But if Bergesen can recapture his ground ball rate, he is worthy of a roster spot.

4. Kyle Kendrick (2%) – A member of the Phillies’ rotation, if Kendrick can give the team innings, he has an excellent chance of picking up wins. But his K rate is poor, his WHIP is nothing special and his ERA is trending upward. The only thing Kendrick has going for him is the chance for wins. And how long will he be in the rotation, especially once Joe Blanton returns from the disabled list?

3. Scott Olsen (1%) – In both 2007 and 2008, Olsen had identical 4.95 xFIPs in seasons where he made 33 starts each. Last year, Osen was limited to 11 games, but he had a 4.91 xFIP. It seems pretty apparent where Olsen’s true talent level is. Olsen has some upside in Ks but he is not a mixed league option except in deep leagues.

2. Charlie Morton (1%) – Coming into the year, some viewed Morton as a potential deep sleeper candidate. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Morton has a 12-4 record with a 2.15 ERA. He allowed 44 BB , picked up 134 Ks and allowed just 3 HR in 150.2 IP. But Morton has been pounded in two starts this season. The big problem has been the gopher ball, as he allowed 4 HR in 9.1 IP, and a .429 BABIP is not helping, either. While his ERA is 13.50, his xFIP is 3.34. Morton has a 9.00 K/BB ratio and despite two ugly starts, he is an intriguing option with upside.

1. Craig Stammen (0%) – Okay, I admit I am intrigued by a pitcher who absolutely no one wants in their starting lineup. But unlike Morton, there is little to recommend Stammen. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A, he has a 5-7 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 5.3 K/9. On the plus side, Stammen has done a nice job of getting ground balls in his brief major league career. He has a 1.54 GB/FB ratio in 112 IP, continuing his trend from the minors (54.3 GB%) of keeping the ball down. It is not that Stammen has no chance, but a guy with a 3.94 K/9 ratio has zero room for error.


Interesting Week Three 2-Start Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Three.

Homer Bailey – Long touted as one of the top young pitchers in baseball, Bailey is having the same struggles early in 2010 as he has had throughout his career in the majors – too many walks and trouble with gopher balls. Bailey has a 5.23 BB/9 and has allowed 2 HR in 10.1 IP this year. Bailey has two starts this week at home, where he has allowed 16 of his 25 homers. While neither the Dodgers nor Padres are big HR teams, Bailey at home for two starts is still a good recipe for disaster. Making things even worse is the slow start offensively for the Reds, who are 15th in the NL with an average of 4.30 runs per game.

Brandon Morrow – The good news for Morrow is that his xFIP is half of his ERA. The bad news is that his ERA is 12.00 after two starts. Control has always been an issue for Morrow and he has allowed 6 BB in 9 IP this year. Adding to his problems are that his velocity is down, which may be contributing to the troubles this year with his changeup. His change is already 2.5 runs below average. Morrow is trying to compensate by throwing more curves, but that pitch sits at 1.8 runs below average. Even with a home start against the Royals, put Morrow on the bench until he shows something better than he has so far this season.

Brett Myers – To the dismay of my Razzball team, Myers has been decent so far this season, including a tough loss to the Cardinals in his last outing in which he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. His fastball velocity still sits below 90, but Myers has cut way back on the number of times he has thrown his heater, down to throwing just 40.5 percent fastballs. Instead, he is now an off-speed pitcher, throwing his curve nearly 32 percent of the time and his slider over 24 percent. The result has been more swings out of the strike zone and more ground balls, two positive changes. Try riding Myers in his home starts this week against the Marlins and Pirates. With the Astros finally winning a game, anything is possible now!

Mike Pelfrey – Before the season started, I thought Pelfrey and his one-pitch repertoire was destined for the bullpen. Instead, he has been the best pitcher for the Mets the first two weeks of the season, with a 2-0 record and a 1.38 ERA. In his last outing against the Rockies, in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball in Colorado, Pelfrey threw five pitches. He threw 13 sliders, 10 curves and 7 changeups according to PitchFX. And 65 percent of his pitches were strikes, including 21 of his 30 off-speed pitches. He gets home starts this week against the Cubs and Braves. It feels like bizarro world recommending both Myers and Pelfrey.

Kevin Slowey – Uncharacteristically, Slowey has had trouble with walks so far this season. After three straight seasons of BB/9 rates under 1.50, Slowey has a 5.23 mark so far this season. But he faces two teams that are below average in the American League in drawing walks, including the 13th-place Royals. Slowey is also a notorious fly ball pitcher, his 0.69 GB/FB mark is the 12th lowest in baseball, and the concern is that he will get roughed up with some home runs. But the Indians are tied for 12th in fewest homers hit. The matchups look good, so make sure Slowey is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Lackey, Hanson, Cain, de la Rosa, Billingsley, Zambrano, Price, Vazquez, Porcello, Penny, Kazmir, Wells, Niemann, Masterson, Pineiro, G. Gonzalez, Cook, Lewis, Volstad, Wakefield, Richard, Willis, Bush, Niese, Bannister, Bergesen, Kendrick, Fister, Olsen, Morton, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.


Week Two Trade Possibilities

Welcome to the first installment of this year’s Trade Possibilities column. Since we are running daily Waiver Wire columns this year, this article will focus more on players likely to be on rosters in most formats. Another change for this year is the inclusion of a player to buy or sell based mostly on a hunch, rather than any firm statistical basis. This new feature is meant to be fun, so take it for what it is worth.

Remember, any player can be involved in a good or bad trade, depending upon what else is in the deal. If Ryan Howard shows up in the “Sell” category, it does not mean to trade him for a bag of magic beans. Conversely, if John Maine shows up in the “Buy” category, it does not mean to trade Tim Lincecum for him. These labels are used to describe players whose future value I believe is out of whack with their present value.

Difference of opinion on players is good. That makes it more likely for trades to happen in the real world. If every single thing points to a player being a Buy or a Sell, you are unlikely to find an owner willing to be your trading partner with that player. Not many owners are going to sell you Josh Johnson now for pennies on the dollar. If I describe a player as a Buy because of factors A, B and C and someone in the comments points out he should be a Sell because of X, Y and Z – this means a deal with that player has a better chance of happening in your league.

Lastly, the markers for a player can be mostly or all negative and that player can still have trade value. If a player entered the draft with an ADP of 50 and is stinking up the joint in every conceivable fashion, he can still be a Trade Possibility. Now you will not get ADP value near 50 in return. Instead, the question becomes: At what point is another owner willing to role the dice with him? If you are the owner of the bum, should you cut your losses and take an ADP value of , say, 200 in return? Some owners refuse to make a deal of this nature, as if refusing to admit they made a mistake in drafting the player. Others take advantage of any opportunity to upgrade their roster, no matter how humiliating in the short term it may be.

BUY

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite 2009 sleeper who did not pan out, Davis again found himself on those same lists for 2010, even if people did not trip all over themselves to draft him this year. In the early going, Davis is hitting for a worse AVG than 2009 and has yet to hit a HR in 24 ABs. Now he is starting to be platooned versus LHP. But Davis is showing much better patience at the plate. After posting BB/K marks of 0.23 in 2008 and 0.16 last year, Davis has a 0.50 mark in 2010. He has nearly doubled his walk rate while cutting his whiffs from 38.4 percent to 25. His B/K numbers are now in line with what he did in the high minors the past three seasons. Eventually, the BABIP will rise from his current .222 mark. And if Davis maintains this K rate, he should bounce back nicely.

Carlos Lee – Since 2006, Lee’s annual HR output has been 37, 32, 28 and 26. This year he has yet to hit a single homer. In that same time frame, Lee’s BB% has gone from 8.3, 7.6, 7.7 and 6.2 and now this year it sits at 3.6 percent. Dating back to 2004, his O-Swing% has been on (almost) a perfect rise up from 16.9 to this year’s 38.3. Right now Lee has the double whammy of a low BABIP (.167) and an abnormally high K% (33.3). The BABIP is certain to rise, as he has yet to hit a single line drive. And since 2002, Lee has consistently posted Contact% numbers ranging from 83.0-87.7 while this year’s mark sits at just 74.5 percent. Lee’s track record shows he is going to make better contact and eventually the hits will come.

Vicente Padilla – The Diamondbacks, Phillies and Rangers all grew tired of Padilla and his antics, despite his powerful arm. He has been brutal in two starts this year. While his FIP and xFIP are both considerably better than his ERA, neither shows a good pitcher, with his xFIP of 5.12 being the best mark of the bunch. But Padilla is still striking out batters at an excellent clip, with an 8.31 K/9, similar to the 8.69 mark he posted last year after being acquired by Los Angeles. In addition to bad luck with hits and HR, Padilla is also walking more batters than normal. His 4.15 BB/9 is his highest since 2005. When the luck stabilizes, Padilla’s stuff is still good enough, as evidenced by his K rate. How much he improves his BB/9 and FB% will determine how successful he is this season.

SELL

Fausto Carmona – An encouraging Spring has been followed up with a nice ERA. Unfortunately, nearly every other marker is negative for Carmona. He has an unsustainable BABIP (.127) and his BB/9 are a career-worst 6.43. And while he had a solid 2.25 K/BB in his breakout year of 2007, this year it sits at 0.50 thanks to a 3.21 K/9. It is not going to be easy to trade Carmona. But he remains a player that fantasy owners still believe in. Surprisingly, he is rostered in 73 percent of CBS Sports leagues. For reasons unknown to me, people view him as a worthwhile fantasy pitcher. Shop him and take any offer that has positive value.

Raul Ibanez – On June 2nd last year, Ibanez had a .340/.399/.716 slash line. For the remainder of the season he posted a .228/.313/.446 line in 342 PA. This year he has a .222/.333/.333 line in his first 33 PA. Ibanez still has value as a power hitter. RoS ZiPS shows him hitting 23 HR the rest of the way. But I am bearish on Ibanez because I think the AVG is going to be an anchor. This year his .273 BABIP has produced a .222 AVG. The BABIP is 33 points below his career average in the category. How much above .250 can he possibly hit this year? Ibanez turns 38 in June and even Citizens Bank Park will have a hard time making up for that.

Miguel Tejada – He looks like a nice acquisition target thanks to a .194 BABIP, which is 103 points below his career average and 124 points below last year’s mark. But Tejada’s value has been propped up the past two years by playing his home games in hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. The past two seasons away from the Juice Box, Tejada posted a .278 AVG with 9 HR. And after a neutral year handling FB in 2009, Tejada has reverted to struggling against them in 2010. Pitchers have fed Tejada FB 73 percent of the time, the fifth most in baseball. He is above average against sliders, cutters and changeups. But Tejada is 3.8 runs below average against fastballs, the third-worst mark in the majors.

HUNCH

Daric Barton – He has a .375 BABIP, a mark he is unlikely to maintain going forward. Even with the hot hitting to start the year, Barton has a .077 ISO, a terrible mark for a first baseman. And top prospect Chris Carter, last year’s MVP of the Texas League, is waiting in Triple-A. But my hunch is that Barton keeps the 1B job all year, flirts with a .300 AVG and 20 HR and is a useful fantasy player.


Waiver Wire: April 12th

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays (owned in 17% of Yahoo! leagues)

Before the start of the season, Fans projected Davis to notch 11 Wins, a 3.93 ERA and 149 Ks. Last year John Lackey had 11 Wins, a 3.83 ERA and 139 Ks, and that was good enough to earn him a 5-year, $82.5 million contract and a 93% roster rate in Yahoo!

Davis got off to a rough start, as he allowed 7 H and 4 ER in 6 IP against the Yankees in his 2010 season debut. But his velocity was good, his mix of pitches was very similar to last season and his batted ball profile was right in line with his 2009 results, too. The one thing that stands out was that Davis had 4 BB and 3 Ks. Last year he had a 2.77 K/BB ratio. But it was the Yankees he was facing, a team known for its plate discipline.

The three previous years, Davis has earned a mid-season promotion each year. In 2007, he split time between Hi-A and Double-A. In 2008 it was Double-A and Triple-A while last year it was Triple-A and the majors. Davis was 16-9 with a 3.55 ERA in Double-A and 14-10 with a 3.23 ERA in Triple-A.

This is one of the top young pitchers in the game. Do not let one disappointing start against the Yankees cloud what he has done the past two years and what everyone projected him to do coming into the season. Davis remains a pitcher who should give a league average ERA with the chance to hit double-digit Wins and a K/9 rate around 7.

Jason Hammel, Colorado Rockies (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

Crowded out in Tampa Bay, Hammel was picked up by the Rockies last year in exchange for Aneury Rodriguez and turned in a 10-win season. The key for Hammel last year was that he had a sparkling 3.17 K/BB ratio, which tied with Johan Santana for the 23rd-best mark in baseball. This led to a FIP (3.71) and an xFIP (3.81) lower than his ERA (4.33), even with a below-average HR/FB rate.

Can Hammel keep his BB/9 rate near last year’s 2.14 mark? Probably not, but Hammel showed good control in the minors, with a lifetime 2.8 BB/9 in six seasons, so his command should still be an asset. Along with his command, Hammel gets a decent number of ground balls and has a 6.38 K/9 lifetime in the majors.

At the very least, Hammel is a guy to target for his road starts. Last year he had a 5.73 ERA in Coors and a 3.13 ERA on the road. He allowed 12 HR at home and only 5 on the road. His first start in 2010 came at home, where he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP for a 5.14 ERA.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 3 % of Yahoo! leagues)

The mad dash should be on to acquire Snyder, who takes over for the injured Miguel Montero as the starting catcher. Snyder has some injury problems of his own, after undergoing back surgery last year. But when healthy, Snyder offers the promise of good power from the catching position. He hit 13 HR in 326 ABs in 2007 and 16 HR in 334 ABs in 2008.

Unfortunately, along with that power comes some low AVG. He has a lifetime .234 mark in the majors. And as you might imagine, Snyder offers nothing in terms of SB, as he has yet to record his first steal. But with the starting job his for at least the next month, Snyder immediately becomes an attractive option. Montero has a torn meniscus, which has a recovery time of at least four weeks. And if they find ligament damage when he undergoes surgery, he could miss the remainder of the season.


Review: Josh Wilker’s Cardboard Gods

Josh Wilker’s Cardboard Gods is the autobiography of a misfit told with the aid of his childhood baseball card collection. It is also a terrific book that you should rush out and buy immediately.

Wait, who wants to read the life story of a misfit?

Well, you will like this book if you fall into any of the following categories:

1. You like baseball.
2. You have fond memories of opening up a pack of baseball cards.
3. You remember the 1970s.
4. You have a brother who played a big role in your life.
5. Your family did not resemble Ozzie and Harriet or the Huxtables.
6. You are a fan of good writing.

Cardboard Gods starts off in 1973, when Wilker went from having two parents to three. This is where it helps if you remember the 1970s. But even if you do not, Wilker explains the circumstances of how he went from having a mom and dad to having a mom, a dad and a Tom. Eventually his family moves to Vermont, where you think people would be more accepting of a liberal lifestyle, but for young Wilker his childhood was anything but easy.

And the rest of the book is about his life, and how both baseball and baseball cards played a pivotal role in his ability to cope. It is a story that is hard to imagine happening today, yet still contains the timeless ingredients of sibling love, parental alienation, loneliness, failure and redemption. It is every bit as much of a family memoir as it is about baseball cards.

And baseball is found on every page. There are over 50 baseball cards (and a basketball one!) depicted in the book and each card, whether it be a star like Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson or Tom Seaver, or a stiff like Rudy Meoli or Carmen Fanzone, serves as the jumping off point for another episode of Wilker’s life.

In 2006, Wilker started his own Web site, where he pulled a card from his collection, which mainly ran from 1975-1980, and wrote about it. These entries could be about the card, the player or Wilker’s life. Frequently they were about all three. The descriptions were spot on and the writing was clever. And while the initial hook was a chance to reconnect with some old baseball cards, what kept readers coming back again and again was the other stuff.

His site became a must-visit for a large number of people, who all wanted the same thing – a bigger audience for the author. Time and time again, people would express their joy in reading Wilker’s work and ask him when the book was coming out. One of the great things about Wilker is his willingness to engage with his audience. He let us know that he wanted to write a book, too. He just needed a publisher.

Seven Footer Press stepped to the plate. The full title of the book is Cardboard Gods: An All-American Tale Told Through Baseball Cards. The book is an extension of the Web site, meaning that Wilker uses the cards from his childhood to tell a story, his story. He has rewritten earlier posts and come up with new entries and the end result is a fascinating story that becomes impossible to put down.

How good is the story? Eventually you stop caring about the baseball cards on the pages. Well, that’s not entirely true. At the beginning of the book, you are drawn to the cards for a visual clue as to what to expect on the following pages. By the end of the book, you skip over the card because the story has zoomed past the part of needing visuals. Instead, you turn back to see the card that started the latest episode.

Who wants to read the life story of a misfit? On the contrary, who wants to read the life story of an average guy? In Leo Tolstoy’s The Death of Ivan Ilyich we are asked the question of what is a “good” life. The pull quote from the story is: “Ivan Ilyich’s life had been most simple and most ordinary and therefore most terrible.”

Wilker’s life has been neither simple nor ordinary. And while I have no doubt that during parts of his existence he would have described his life as terrible, Cardboard Gods is ultimately a story of triumph. When Rob Neyer sings your praises, as he does on the cover, you know you have done something right.

The 243-page book goes on sale nationwide on April 12th with a list price of $24.95. You can order online from the usual places. Members at Barnes and Noble can buy it for $17.96 while it can be purchased at Amazon for $16.47.

Those looking for more information on Wilker and what to expect from the book should check out his Web site. And for even more information, you can view this Q&A I did with him back in 2008.


Week Two 2-Start Pitcher Update

Here is the latest update to Week Two 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SDP – Kevin Correia
PIT – Paul Maholm

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

SDP – Chris Young

Correia was victimized by the gopher ball in his first outing of 2010. He gave up 3 HR in 6 IP at Arizona. He should have an easier time of things this week with two starts in Petco. Last year in his first season with the Padres, Correia had a 3.68 ERA at home, thanks to a .264 BABIP in Petco. He squares off this week first against the Braves and then ends up with a repeat match against the Diamondbacks.

Maholm had a 7.3 HR/FB rate last year. He gave up a home run already this year in his first game, part of four runs he allowed in six innings. Last year Maholm threw his curve ball and changeup virtually the same number of times. In his first start in 2010, he threw his curve 25.6 percent of the time and his changeup 12.2 percent. Also, Maholm’s velocity was down nearly three mph in his first outing.

Meanwhile, Young is likely to be placed on the 15-day DL on Monday with tightness in his pitching shoulder.


Week Two 2-Start Pitchers

This is a weekly column that looks at projected two-start pitchers for the following week. In addition to listing all of the starters scheduled for the coveted two starts, this column will focus on five pitchers that you may be on the fence (or should be on the fence) about starting in the upcoming week.

John Maine – In his first start of the year, Maine gave up 2 HR in 5 IP. This week he has road starts in Colorado and St. Louis. In one of his final Spring Training outings, Maine allowed two homers against the Cardinals. With his average fastball velocity under 90 in his first start, put Maine on the bench this week and wait for an improved fastball before activating him.

Carl Pavano – Between 2005 and 2008, Pavano managed just nine wins in the majors and became nothing more than a punch line. But last year he notched 14 wins and both his FIP and xFIP were a full run lower than his ERA. Pavano went 7 IP and allowed just 1 ER in his 2010 debut. He has two home starts this week, including one against the Royals. Check the waiver wire and see if he is available in your league.

Ervin Santana – It was a rough debut for Santana, who allowed 4 ER in 6 IP in his home start against the Twins. This week he has two road starts, facing off against the Yankees and the Blue Jays. Santana had good velocity on his fastball but struggled with his slider, usually his out pitch. With two trips to the East Coast this week, bench Santana if you have other options.

Chris R. Young – In the last three years, Young is 11-6 with a 2.07 ERA in Petco Park and 9-14 with a 5.44 ERA in road games, making him one of the easiest decisions for fantasy players. This week he has home starts against the Braves and Diamondbacks, so make sure he is in your lineup.

Barry Zito – Last year, Zito posted a 7.22 K/9 ratio, his highest mark since 2001. In his first start this year, Zito fanned five batters in six innings. He did allow a bunch of fly balls in his first start but historically Zito has had a below-average HR/FB rate. This week he faces the Pirates and Dodgers. Most of the Pirates’ HR power comes from Garrett Jones, who has a lifetime .197 AVG versus southpaws (albeit with 7 HR and a .247 ISO). The Dodgers have hit just 2 HR so far this year. Look for Zito to continue his strong pitching this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, Hamels, Peavy, Kershaw, Garza, Lester, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Dempster, Floyd, Anderson, Scherzer, W. Rodriguez, Harden, Pettitte, Cueto, Matusz, Romero, Carmona, Arroyo, Kennedy, Ducsscherer, Rowland-Smith, Marquis, Hochevar, Robertson, Davis, Ohlendorf, Guthrie, Tallet, Smith.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.


Can Sanchez Hold Off Morrison?

On their way to New York to play the Mets on Opening Day, the Marlins stopped in at Greensboro on Saturday, the home of their Single-A affiliate in the South Atlantic League. It was a big deal in Greensboro and it gave the city a chance to see major league talent up close. The big attractions were stars like Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu and Dan Uggla. But just as important to the crowd was the chance to catch up with former members of both the Greensboro Bats and Greensboro Grasshoppers.

In all, eight players on the Marlins Travel Roster played minor league ball in Greensboro. Neither Josh Johnson nor Chris Volstad appeared Saturday, meaning that the biggest local star for the Marlins was 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan. The Marlins hope they will have another candidate for Rookie of the Year Award honors this year with Gaby Sanchez, who won the first base job in Spring Training.

Most people consider Logan Morrison to be the Marlins’ first baseman of the future but Sanchez gets first crack to establish himself in the majors. I got to ask some of the coaches about the two youngsters, the decision-making process and the future for both players.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez insisted that the first base job was up for grabs and that Morrison would have been the choice with a better Spring.

“(Sanchez) came into Spring Training in open competition with Logan Morrison, another Hopper,” Gonazlez said. “He won the competition. That’s not saying anything bad about Logan Morrison because he’s going to be a very good major leaguer. Gaby won that competition and is going to start the season with us. Now he’s got to produce. If it doesn’t happen, which I hope doesn’t happen, Logan Morrison is a pretty good backup plan.”

Hitting coach Jim Presley also said that it was a Spring Training decision.

“Two great young players going head-to-head,” Presley described the situation. “Obviously Gaby won that one, he hit over .400 and Morrison had a little bit of a struggle early. Gaby’s a little bit ahead of him right now but Morrison has a little bit of a bad hand from last year and I think that affected him a little bit. He’s going to be a great hitter. He’s going to be in the big leagues pretty soon and going to be there for a long time.”

Putting aside the wisdom of deciding a starting job based on 55 at-bats for Sanchez (.364/.410/.582) and 43 for Morrison (.209/.244/.326), the fact that Morrison was in line for a job after just 278 at-bats above A-ball shows how much the organization values the 22-year old.

“He stays inside the ball and has big-time juice,” Presley said of Morrison. “He hits the ball the other way so well we were trying to get him to turn on the ball in. He started doing that. He’s going to play in the big leagues, there’s no doubt about that.”

Last year, 12 of the 25 qualified first basemen in the majors hit 30 HR. Neither Sanchez nor Morrison projects with that type of power right now but Presley was unconcerned about that.

About Sanchez, Presley said, “Could he hit 20 in the big leagues? Sure. Will he hit 30? Probably not. He’s got the right approach and he’s going to hit .300 in the big leagues for you. He’s not your prototypical power hitting first baseman but he knows what he’s doing.”

The four projection systems on FanGraphs predict Sanchez to hit from between .270 and .279 this season. The big difference is playing time. Marcel gives him only 212 ABs while ZiPS projects 480. The most HR projected by any system is 15.

Presley noted that Morrison’s hand injury limited his chances to win the starting job this year.

“He was recovered from it but he didn’t get to play a lot and I think that affected him,” Presley said. “He had to take the winter off and kind of let it regroup. Guys trying to win a position, you want to see them go to Winter Ball and Gaby did that. He went to the Dominican and played and that made a difference.”

In 26 games in the DWL, Sanchez posted a .232/.333/.453 line in 95 at-bats.

Gonzalez indicated that the club has considered a plan to get both Sanchez and Morrison in the lineup at the same time.

“You could move Coghlan to second and put Morrison in left field and there you go,” Gonzalez said. “But who knows, down the road you make a few moves and that plan goes out the window.”

Bench coach Carlos Tosca agreed that if the two were to be in the same lineup, it would be Morrison as the one to switch positions.

“Mo would be more of a candidate to do that than Gaby would,” Tosca said.

While Tosca seemed doubtful of them both playing together, he did think either could be assets defensively at first base.

“Defensively they’re good first basemen. They play a little different. Gaby’s a little more of a routine type of guy while Mo is a little more fly by the seat of your pants type guy but they both have a chance to be good first basemen.”

Sanchez got off to a rough start defensively but he did deliver two hits on Opening Day. But even if he struggles offensively, expect Sanchez to get enough time to work out of any slumps.

“If you know anything about our manager,” Tosca said, “ he’s a very patient man. He’s going to give Gaby or anybody else an opportunity to show what they’re capable of doing.”

So Morrison finds himself at Triple-A New Orleans, which opens its season on Thursday. Gonzalez referenced Coghlan when asked about a potential promotion for Morrison in 2010. After putting up a .970 OPS in 25 games in New Orleans last year, Coghlan got the call to the majors in the second week of May.

The lesson for Morrison and his fantasy owners is that if he produces in Triple-A, he will get a shot. Of course, Coghlan came up to provide infield depth and because he produced he worked his way into the starting job in left field. So if Morrison does get a promotion, it does not necessarily mean that Sanchez is heading to the bench.

This year could be a make-or-break year for Sanchez, at least with the Marlins. If he does not establish himself as a starter this year, it will likely be much more difficult fending off Morrison after he has a full year in the high minors under his belt. But at the same time, fantasy owners of Sanchez should be encouraged that he will not get yanked at the first sign of trouble.