In many ways, this article is going to be a rehashing of the Marco Estrada article I wrote prior to the 2013 season. The core aspects haven’t changed. Estrada continues to offer an above-average strikeout rate, a stellar WHIP due to a low walk rate and encouraging fielding independent numbers.

I stated in August:

If the home run rate doesn’t become too unworkable, there’s so much to like about Marco Estrada.

Those words epitomized his injury-shortened performance last year. The right-hander saw his home run rate skyrocket in the first half to an untenable 1.82 HR/9. Expectedly, his overall numbers suffered as he compiled a nasty 5.32 ERA and 4.75 FIP, but the above-average strikeout-to-walk ratio remained. It was unreasonable to project his home run rate to stabilize at such a high level, which is why Estrada was a prime buy-low candidate late in the season for owners who were searching for improved pitching for the playoff stretch.

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Although the RotoGraphs team recapped the third base position a few weeks ago, Todd Frazier didn’t receive his due attention, so it seemed prudent to give him ample space in our discussion on outfielders — the only other position he played last season. The New Jersey native was a popular sleeper pick after posting a solid .354 wOBA (8th amongst third basemen with 400+ PA) with 19 home runs and finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012.

Unfortunately, Frazier delivered a disappointing sophomore campaign this year. His batting average plummeted to a mere .234, his wOBA dropped to .319, and his home run numbers remained stagnant despite roughly 150 more plate appearances. Barely checking in ahead of D.J. LeMahieu, Juan Uribe and Matt Dominguez, the 27-year-old ranked as the 17th-best fantasy third baseman. That’s a far cry from where many fantasy owners expected him to be ranked at the end of the season.

Some fantasy analysts have pointed to the severe drop in BABIP from .316 to .269 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, as the main reason for Frazier’s decreased value. They’ve pointed to the increased walk rate, the decreased strikeout rate, the decreased swinging-strike rate and even to the fact that he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone in 2013. All good things, certainly, but I’m not ready to jump aboard the BABIP train and simply explain away his struggles this year to mere random variation. That’s too simplistic and misses a key reason why his power and batting average dropped this season.

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The Milwaukee Brewers suffered through a season they’d like to forget in many ways. The club finished 14 games under .500 and trudged through the media firestorm that was the Ryan Braun suspension. Furthermore, Yovani Gallardo took a significant step backward, Corey Hart missed the entire season, Aramis Ramirez battled through a knee injury and Rickie Weeks was borderline unplayable prior to his season-ending injury.

For fantasy owners, however, the Brewers season had several bright spots. Jean Segura was the best shortstop in baseball, Carlos Gomez enjoyed a breakout year and Scooter Gennett showed flashes late in the season. Often overlooked, though, is the fact that Khris Davis established himself as a sleeper candidate, and even displayed some skills that could make him an impact outfielder if they carry over into 2014.

He launched 11 home runs in only 153 plate appearances, and he finished the season with an impressive .406 wOBA. If you’re looking for a single number, his lofty .316 ISO illustrates the impressive power display in August and September. It’s not really fair to do this because of the small sample size, but his .316 ISO ranked second in Major League Baseball (min. 100 PA) behind only his near-namesake Chris Davis.

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Chris Carter has been on fantasy radars for several seasons, getting plenty of helium after launching an impressive 39 home runs in 2008 with Oakland’s High-A affiliate. He followed that banner season with 28 and 34 homers in 2009 and 2010, respectively, before bouncing between Triple-A and the majors for a couple years.

Fantasy owners have long desired to see what he could accomplish with 500+ plate appearances in a season, but defensive limitations and a penchant for striking out had previously kept him from getting regular playing time. That is, until the Houston Astros committed to him as a full-time player, splitting time between first base, left field and DH.

In his first full-season stint in the big leagues, Carter epitomized the three-true outcome approach. He struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances, posted a 12.0% walk rate and finished with 29 long balls. While only hitting .223 on the season, his power/patience approach still allowed him to remain an above-average contributor at the plate. He had a 113 wRC+ and 112 OPS+.

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It proved to be paradoxical year for Ben Zobrist, who has been exceedingly popular in fantasy leagues in recent years due to his under-the-radar skills and positional flexibility. The 32-year-old experienced his worst offensive performance (.334 wOBA) since 2010, yet his fantasy value was arguably higher this season than it was a year ago, in which he posted a .365 wOBA.

This strange improvement wasn’t due to an unexpected increase in stolen bases or RBI, which would be similarly absent from his wOBA. Instead, Zobrist proved more valuable this year in fantasy circles than in 2012 because the overall production from shortstop experienced a sharp decline. He was the tenth-ranked shortstop in ESPN leagues in 2012, but the ninth-ranked shortstop this year. While his overall numbers took a nosedive, his relational value amongst shortstops actually increased, which is an overarching statement that’s interesting on its own.

Now, part of that was due to the injuries to guys like Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter, as well as an albatross season by Starlin Castro, so perhaps fantasy owners should expect the overall performance from shortstops to increase next season. However, the real object of inquiry in this article seeks to determine why Ben Zobrist experienced such a sharp decline in production and whether that decrease can be expected to carry into the 2014 season. Owners should keep in mind that Reyes and Jeter will return — and will likely demand a lot of attention on draft day — but Zobrist could be a sly under-the-radar pickup if he can reasonably be expected to rebound from his uncharacteristic season.

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David Freese, a fantasy darling from a year ago, failed to replicate his breakout season in both real-life and fantasy terms. On the diamond, he declined offensively and defensively and dropped from a four-win player in 2012 to roughly replacement-level in 2013. And more importantly for fantasy baseball purposes, he essentially took a face-first plunge into the ocean this year with an anchor firmly tied to his waist, as he was barely a top-30 option at third base.

When guys like D.J. LeMahieu, Mike Aviles and merely 350 plate appearances of Aramis Ramirez proved more valuable, it’s abundantly clear that the fantasy production was sub-par. What makes his disappointing performance sting even more for fantasy owners is that he was drafted (on average) ahead of guys like Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado and Matt Carpenter.

Value is paramount in fantasy baseball, and while David Freese wasn’t the worst value of the season — hello, Starlin Castro, Matt Kemp and B.J. Upton — he certainly performed well below expectations this season. His power dropped, his average barely eclipsed .260 and his overall counting statistics were underwhelming. Fantasy owners thought they were getting a high-average third baseman with 20+ homer power, and they received a crappy average and nine home runs. Brutal.

So, let’s not only figure out what happened, but also attempt to determine what this disappointing 2013 season means for David Freese going forward. Because, realistically, if this was merely a blip on the radar, he could be an intriguing sleeper on draft day this upcoming spring.

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Over the past couple years, Edwin Encarnacion has transformed himself into a legitimate offensive superstar in Major League Baseball. He was the Reds’ top prospect when he made his major-league debut in 2005, but he ultimately wore out his welcome in Cincinnati with poor defense and inconsistent performance. The 30-year-old even scuffled for a couple years in Toronto before busting out in 2012 by launching 42 homers.

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Every year, we all have our short list of “must have” guys on draft day. I used to be so concerned about value that I’d begrudgingly let those “must have” guys slip away when they became a couple dollars too expensive, but as I’ve gotten more experienced, I’ve started to trust my analysis a little more and ensure I acquire the players I covet. This year, I drafted Mike Minor, Jean Segura and Jason Kipnis in all four of my leagues. Those were my guys.

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Over the summer, Mike Petriello wrote a wonderful article outlining the improvements shown by Adam Lind in the first half of the season. The Blue Jays’ first baseman had consciously chosen to become more patient at the plate, and Mike broke down the numbers to illustrate the point. Indeed, Lind was swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone — and at fewer pitches in general — which resulted in a higher walk rate and overall higher production.

To further the point, if we place his seasonal numbers in conversation with each other, it’s quite easy to understand why Lind experienced success for the first time since his 2009 breakout campaign.

When Adam Lind is more selective at the plate, he hits for more power and compiles a higher wOBA. The 2012 season stands out as a potential counterexample, but it’s important to remember that Lind didn’t do much other than pound baseballs into the ground a year ago. His 48.3% ground ball rate hindered him from tapping into his plus power, and while his 45.9% ground ball rate from this season isn’t much lower, that rate is pulled up from a 55.7% ground ball rate in the month of August. Not surprisingly, Lind rocked a mere .126 ISO in August.

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Amongst the exciting young sluggers in the game, it’s easy to overlook Freddie Freeman. He’s not overly flashy and lacked the benefit of the hype machine while in the minors. However, he’s only 24 years old and was nearly a five-win player in 2013. His .387 wOBA ranked 13th in all of baseball, and he was the third-ranked first baseman in ESPN leagues.

It’s crazy to ponder the fact that Freeman will be 24 years old for the vast majority of the 2014 season, as well, because he’s already been one of the best young first basemen over the last 20 years. Since the strike, only two first basemen have connected with more home runs through their age-24 season than Freeman.

The above chart certainly puts Freeman’s early-career performance into perspective, but it also indicates few first basemen acquire starting roles in their early-20s. Not factoring in position, Freeman has the 28th-most home runs of any player through their age-24 season since the labor strike — which is still impressive, but not nearly as noteworthy as being number three.

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