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Gamble on Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo could be one of the biggest breakout starting pitcher candidates for 2009. The right-hander, who will be just 23 on opening day, appeared ready to assume a full-time gig at the beginning of 2008. However, injuries struck and Gallardo started just four games in the regular season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He did, though, make two appearances – including one start – in the 2008 playoffs. In those two games Gallardo allowed just four hits in seven innings of work. His control was shaky as he allowed five walks to go with four strikeouts.

During the regular season, in his four Major League starts, Gallardo allowed 22 hits in 24 innings of work. He walked eight batters and struck out 20. Three of those starts came early in the season before his injury. Only one start came before he made his playoff appearances. In that one start, he allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings of work. He also punched out seven. Of his first 15 pitches thrown in his first game back, Gallardo threw 13 fastballs in the 88-92 mph range and mixed in two curveballs. It wasn’t until his eighth batter in the game that the right-hander threw something other than a fastball or a curveball (It was an 85 mph slider).

In his 2007 season, when he made 20 appearance (17 starts) as a rookie, Gallardo allowed 103 hits in 110.1 innings of work. He also posted solid rates of 3.02 BB/9 and 7.50 K/9. Going forward, Gallardo should have no problems duplicating his previous successes. His 2008 injury – a torn ACL – is not likely to have major, long-term affects on his stuff, which includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, slider and change-up.

The fact that Gallardo remained effective in three appearances after missing almost the entire season speaks volumes about his potential and his make-up – especially considering all three were in high-pressure situations. He is probably not ready to assume 200 innings of work in 2009, but Gallardo should be well rested after missing so much time in 2008 (especially after throwing a career-high 188 innings as a 21-year-old in 2007).


Up… Up… Upton and Away

The first overall pick of the 2005 draft, out of a Virginia high school, had an up-and-down first full season in the Major Leagues. Justin Upton’s final line of .250/.353/.463 in 356 at-bats does not even begin to scratch the surface on his potential.

The infielder-turned-outfielder could very well explode in 2009 with a year of experience under his belt. He showed a willingness to take a walk (especially for a 20 year old) with a 13.2 BB%. His strikeout rate at 34 K% was high but that should improve as he gains experience facing star pitching, as he had fewer than 1,000 minor league at-bats before securing a full-time Major League job. He has a lot of room to improve upon his contract rate of 68.09%, which is below even Adam Dunn’s 71.77% and Russell Branyan’s 68.54%.

Thanks to quick bat speed, Upton generates excellent power on his 6’2”, 205 lbs frame. He slugged 15 home runs in 2008, with an ISO of .213, and should continue to build upon his power numbers as he matures. Upton also has the necessary speed to steal 20-30 bases, if he is motivated to do so.

One thing to be mindful of with Upton in 2009 is his home/road split from 2008, which included a .321/.407/.632 line at home and a .169/.291/.271 line on the road. You definitely want him in the line-up when the Diamondbacks are playing in Arizona. It’s also hard to know if Upton’s oblique strain, which kept him out of the line-up for seven weeks, was affecting him prior to his disabled list trip. It could have been a factor in his .123/.305/.215 line in June.

You certainly do not want to select Upton near the top of your fantasy draft, but he is a solid option later in the draft when you are looking for a player who should produce average numbers across the board – with the potential to absolutely explode. There is no where to go but up for this talented, young player.


Mr. Versatile Pablo Sandoval

Flexibility is a valuable tool in Fantasy Baseball. Flexibility… meet Pablo Sandoval of the San Francisco Giants.

Sandoval appeared in 41 games for the Giants in 2008 as a 21-year-old (now 22). The Venezuela native has filled a number of positions for the organization over the past five seasons since coming over to North America, including first base, third base and catcher. During his time in San Francisco, Sandoval played 17 games at first base, 12 games at third base and 11 games at catcher – which makes him eligible at all three positions in many fantasy leagues. Defensively, he is below average at the infield corners and is better behind the plate, although his game calling and receiving both need work.

Offensively, Sandoval projects to hit for a high average, but with modest power (although that has improved each of the past three seasons). He has a career minor league line of .303/.342/.445, which is really nice for a catcher but not as much for a corner infielder. In his Major League debut, Sandoval hit .345/.357/.490 in 145 at-bats with three homers (an ISO of .145) and rates of 2.7 BB% and 9.7 K%. Given the offence built up around him, Sandoval is not going to set the world on fire by driving in a ton of runs, or by scoring a lot of runs (He’s also 5’11”, 245 lbs so he’s not going to be stretching those singles into doubles on most nights).

With Bengie Molina entrenched as the starting catcher in San Francisco, Sandoval likely won’t see the majority of his at-bats at catcher in 2009. However, both the first base and the third base jobs are wide open in San Francisco, which bodes well for Sandoval’s playing time and makes him a great option towards the end of your 2009 draft.