Author Archive

Can Cards Build New Closer with Carpenter?

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa is considering the option of using rehabbing starter Chris Carpenter as the club’s closer for 2009. With former closer Jason Isringhausen likely on his way out of town as a free agent, after a disappointing 2008 season, the club is left with just younger pitchers with true closer experiences (in the minors and college). The club recently lost out on former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes, who signed a two-year contract with the Los Angels Angels.

Everyone who knows LaRussa knows he’s not likely to give such a key role to a pitcher like Chris Perez or Jason Motte, with just 41.2 and 11.0 innings under their belts, respectively. Perez, 23, collected seven saves in 2008 with St. Louis and blew four save opportunities. Motte, 26, collected one save and did not blow an opportunity.

Perhaps LaRussa is looking for the next John Smoltz, another talented right-handed veteran pitcher, whose effectiveness and durability were derailed by injuries to his arm and shoulder. Smoltz was 34 when he became the closer for the Atlanta Braves. Carpenter will be 34 as of Opening Day 2009. Smoltz had been in the Majors for 13 seasons; Carpenter will have been in the Majors for 12.

Smoltz and Carpenter have similar repertoires at this points as starters. Based on small sample sizes from 2008 (just four games for Carpenter, and six games for Smoltz) both utilized fastballs and breaking balls as their two main weapons, although Carpenter favored the fastball (52.7%) about 10 percent more than Smoltz. Both pitchers averaged out around 91-92 mph. Smoltz used his slider (37.5%) about 10 percent more than Carpenter. They also have curveballs and change-ups that they mixed in, although the Cardinals righty used his curveball far more often in his last healthy season (2006: 22.2%). Carpenter also used a cutter 2.9% of the time, while Smoltz has a splitter that he used 8.6% of the time in 2008.

Obviously, comparing the above numbers does not solve the question of whether or not Carpenter will be an effective closer but it is kind of interesting to compare the two players on a somewhat superficial level. There are enough similarities with the two players to suggest that Carpenter could be an effective closer, if he can handle the rigors of pitching on back-to-back or back-to-back-to-back days. It also won’t be hard to top Isringhausen’s 2008 season after he saved just 12 games and posted an ERA of 5.70.

Whether he pitches out of the bullpen or the starting rotation, the Cardinals definitely need to figure out how to get the best value out of Carpenter, as he is signed through the 2011 season (with a club option for 2012) at $14 million or more a season. Carpenter would certainly be a sleeper choice for Fantasy owners if he heads into the 2009 season in the bullpen.


Making Room for Colby

It is safe to say that the St. Louis Cardinals organization has a lot of outfield depth. The club can boast at least six Major-League-worthy outfielders in its 40-man roster, including Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Joe Mather, and Skip Schumaker. Top prospect Colby Rasmus, not currently on the big league roster, is also an outfielder and spent the entire 2008 season in Triple-A.

Barton and Mather are solid fourth or fifth outfielders – versatile and can do a little bit of everything. After hitting .147 against southpaws in 2008, Duncan is a platoon player and poor fielder.

Based on his offensive profile, Schumaker is best-suited to center-field because he does not hit for power (.104 ISO in 2008). Unfortunately, his defensive numbers suggest that he has below average range for center (1.78 RF/g compared to the league average of 2.26) and is better off in left-field. Not only is Schumaker likely to return to a fourth-outfielder role in the near future, he is also of no use to Fantasy Baseball owners due to his lack of power and stolen bases (12 in 296 career games).

There are not many players in the Major Leagues that topped Ludwick’s offensive season in 2008. Everyone kept waiting for him to regress after disappointing clubs in five previous seasons, but he ended up hitting .299 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI. In fact, his OPS improved from .962 in the first half of the season to .971 in the second (although that was aided by a boost in BABIP from .313 to .381). At the age of 30, Ludwick is probably not going to get better but he could maintain a .270-280 average with 25-30 home runs in 2009.

Everyone knows Ankiel’s story by now. The converted pitcher had a respectable season in 2008 by anyone’s standards with a .264 batting average, 25 home runs and 71 RBI. However, his offence really dropped off in the second half of the season with his triple-slash line going from .270/.343/.537 to .245/.319/.415. The left-handed batter struggled against southpaws all season long with an average of .224.

By looking at the above players we can see that none of them deserve to stand in the way of Rasmus, who has the potential to surpass each one of them offensively and defensively. In the outfield, Rasmus has outstanding range in center-field with a 2.35 RF/g in 2008, as well as a strong arm. Offensively, he has game-changing power potential after hitting 29 home runs with a .275 ISO at Double-A in 2007.

His 2008 season at Triple-A does not look as impressive, but the talented outfielder had a slow start to the season and then hurt his knee and groin just as he was heating up. There is little doubt that Rasmus will begin the 2009 season in Triple-A, given St. Louis’ depth and the fact that he hit just .251/.347/.396 in 2008. His career line is solid at .277/.367/.486 in 1,532 at-bats. The left-handed batter has also handed southpaws well in his career, which is something that cannot be said for the outfielders currently in St. Louis. Last season, Rasmus hit .245/.349/.336 against them, compared to .256/.354/.433 against right-handers. In his career, Rasmus has hit .275/.371/.455 against lefties and .278/.364/.496 against righties.

Some eyes were raised when Rasmus declined the opportunity to play winter ball to help make up for lost time and perhaps accelerate his big-league timetable. Regardless, he could very well surface in St. Louis by mid-season if he gets off to a respectable start to the 2009 season. Rasmus may initially struggle to hit for average, but he should be productive and Fantasy Baseball owners should track his progress closely.


The American League East is Catching On

If the 2009 Major League Baseball season were to begin today, there would be a lot of uncertainty behind home plate for most of the clubs in the American League East. Aside from the New York Yankees organization, which features veterans Jorge Posada and Jose Molina behind the dish, the remaining clubs have big question marks.

The Baltimore Orioles club does not currently have a catcher on its 40-man roster, although it does feature three non-roster invitees for spring training: Chad Moeller, Jose Reyes, and Guillermo Rodriguez. The club is expected to hand the No. 1 starting role to phenom Matt Wieters, who spent 2008 in both High-A and Double-A, where he batted a combined .353/.452/.599 in 434 at-bats. Despite his inexperience, it would not be shocking to see Wieters become the most productive backstop in the AL East next season.

In Boston, barring a late return from former captain Jason Varitek, the club could end up with some very poor offensive numbers from some fringe catching prospects currently on the 40-man roster, including George Kottaras, Dusty Brown and Mark Wagner. Kottaras has the most MLB experience of the trio, but with just five at-bats, that is not saying much. He hit 22 homers in Triple-A in 2008, but managed a batting average of just .243. Brown, 26, had a nice line in Triple-A in 2008 at .290/.374/.471, but he struck out 81 times in 297 at-bats (27.3%). Wagner has the best chance of developing into a starting catcher at the Major League level, but he is also the furthest away having spent the 2008 season hitting .219/.297/.363 in 342 Double-A at-bats at the age of 24. His offensive numbers prior to 2008 were much more encouraging.

In Tampa Bay, Dioner Navarro is pretty much entrenched behind the plate, having appeared in 120 games for the club last season. But he may need more rest after also appearing in 119 games in 2007 and that job will likely go to either Shawn Riggans, or John Jaso. Riggans was the go-to reserve in 2008 before injuries ruined his season. Even when healthy, though, the 28-year-old hit just .222/.287/.407 in 135 at-bats. Jaso is the organization’s catcher of the future, but he has just 118 at-bats above Double-A, including 10 at the Major League level. He is not quite ready for a regular roster spot.

In Toronto, the Canadian dollar’s decreased value has not helped the club in its search for a capable replacement for departed free agent Gregg Zaun. The job is likely going to be handed to former second round draft pick Curtis Thigpen, who had a horrendous offensive season in 2008. He managed a line of just .222/.264/.310 in 361 Triple-A at-bats and an average of .176 in 17 big league at-bats. He has the potential to hit for a better average but he lacks power and his defence is nothing to write home about. Luckily, the 25-year-old has some competition on the way in the form of two prospects who will be splitting time behind the dish in Triple-A in 2009: J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman. Arencibia, 22, hit 27 homers and drove in 105 runs last year over two minor league levels. Jeroloman is a stellar defensive catcher who walks more than he strikes out and posted a .427 OBP in 2007 and a .396 OBP in 2008. Rod Barajas will be the main catcher for Toronto in 2009 and he is coming of one of his better offensive seasons in the last couple of years with a line of .249/.294/.410 in .349 at-bats.

There is plenty of time for the AL East clubs – especially Boston – to improve their offensive potentials behind the dish. Even New York, which appears set at catcher, could face rough times if the picture remains the same in April as it is now. Posada is coming off his worst offensive season in years, including his lowest wOBA since 1999, and can now be considered an injury risk given his age (37) and games played (just shy of 1,500).

If you’re looking for offence from a catcher for your Fantasy Baseball team in 2009, consider the projected starters from the AL East in this order: Wieters, Posada, Navarro, Barajas, Kottaras. As for the remaining catchers, Arencibia and Jaso are names to stash away for 2010 and beyond.


Potential Saves are Hiding in Washington

It may not be as glamorous or as lucrative as being a starting pitcher in the Majors, but taking a stroll to the bullpen can save your career… just ask Joel Hanrahan and Steven Shell, both of whom pitch for the Washington Nationals.

Hanrahan, 27, was a second round draft pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2000 after a distinguished high school pitching career. The right-hander looked primed for an excellent Major League career after a solid 2003 season in Double-A, but that was not to be – for a few years, anyway.

Hanrahan became far more hittable at Triple-A in 2004 (9.7 H/9) and his control regressed (3.6 BB/9 in 2003 to 5.7 BB/9 in 2004). During the next two seasons, he cut back on the hits allowed, but his control continued to be an issue.

After seven seasons in the LA organization, Hanrahan signed with Washington as a minor league free agent prior to the 2007 season. He remained in the starting rotation for Triple-A Columbus and pitched well for the first half of the season, earning a promotion to the Majors for the first time. In 12 appearances for the Nationals, Hanrahan posted a 6.08 FIP and allowed 59 hits in 51 innings. He also posted rates of 6.71 BB/9 and 7.59 K/9. Obviously that walk rate won’t get it done at the Major League level.

Hanrahan showed enough potential to earn another shot at a big league gig – but this time as a reliever. He shifted to the bullpen full-time in 2008 and his career was resurrected. In 69 games, Hanrahan allowed 73 hits in 84.1 innings of work. He posted significantly-improved rates of 4.48 BB/9 and 9.92 K/9. His groundball rate jumped from 30.6 percent to 42.6 percent.

One of the biggest reasons for Hanrahan’s success – at least on the surface – was a significant improvement in his “stuff.” The fastball jumped from an average of 91.7 mph in 2007 to 95.2 mph in 2008, which is a huge increase for any pitcher. Hanrahan’s slider went from 82.4 mph to 85.3 mph. The move also allowed him to focus on those two pitches and his change-up usage dropped from 11.5 percent to 1.9 percent.

* * *

Shell was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2001 draft by the Los Angeles Angels. Like Hanrahan, Shell began his pro career as a highly-regarded starting pitcher. In 2004, in High-A ball, the right-hander fanned 190 batters in 165.1 innings and allowed just 151 hits while playing his home games in a hitter’s park.

During the next two seasons, in Double-A and Triple-A, he became much more hittable and posted hit rates of 9.9 H/9 in 2005 and 11.7 H/9 in 2006. Unlike Harahan, though, Shell’s control remained very good, including a rate of 2.3 BB/9 in 2006 at Triple-A.

The Angels moved Shell to the bullpen in 2007 – although he also made seven starts at Triple-A – with mixed results. He posted a 5.39 FIP and allowed 83 hits in 70.1 innings of work. After the season he was allowed to leave the organization as a minor league free agent. Shell, now 25, signed with Washington.

He began 2008 in the Triple-A bullpen. The right-hander posted a 3.34 FIP and posted rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 8.33 K/9, earning himself a promotion to the Major Leagues for the very first time. Shell allowed just 34 hits in 50 innings for the Nationals, and he posted rates of 3.60 BB/9 and 7.38 K/9. His ERA was 2.16, but his FIP was 4.11.

While Hanrahan has better pure stuff than Shell, the latter gets by with better command and control, as well as a good mix of pitches. His repertoire includes an 89 mph fastball, a curveball (which he uses almost 28% of the time), a slider and a change-up.

* * *

The closer gig in Washington is wide open for 2009, although Hanrahan may have the inside track after saving nine games in 2008. Shell’s diverse repertoire invokes similarities to Angels’ super-set-up man Scot Shields (although he throws about 3 mph faster on average than Shell). With questionable starting pitching and a less-than-threatening offence, the Nationals may end up winning a lot of close games (not to say they’ll win a lot of games – just that the games they win will not be blowouts), which could create quite a few save opportunities.


Analyzing Injury-Prone Canadian Pitchers

Although their repertoires and approaches vary, Canadian hurlers Shawn Hill and Rich Harden share a common theme: their susceptibility to injury. Both players are also 27 years of age and both were selected in the 2000 draft – Hill in the sixth round and Harden in the 17th round.

Hill has never pitched more than 16 Major League games in one season thanks to his ongoing injury woes, which have included Tommy John surgery. In 206.1 career innings, the right-hander has a 4.93 ERA and has allowed 234 hits. In 2008, Hill never looked completely healthy for the Washington Nationals and he allowed 88 hits in 63.1 innings. He posted rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 5.54 K/9. Hill does a respectable job of keeping batted balls on the ground and he posted a HR/9 rate of 0.71 last season.

Hill averages right around 90 mph with his fastball and he has been fairly consistent with that pitch over the past three seasons. His curveball was thrown about three miles per hour harder in 2008 than in the previous two seasons, although his usage dropped about four percent – in part due to the emergence of a slider, which he used 5.5 percent of the time. Hill also uses a change-up just under seven percent of the time.

Harden, now with the Chicago Cubs, appeared in just 16 games between 2006 and 2007 thanks to numerous injuries to his arm and shoulder. When healthy, though, he has been dominating. He has a 3.23 career ERA in 612.2 innings. Harden, 27, has also allowed just 7.1 hits per nine innings during that span of time. Last season, he made 25 starts between Oakland and Chicago, which was his highest number of appearances at the Major League level since 2004.

Combined, Harden pitched 148 innings and allowed just 96 hits. He posted rates of 3.71 BB/9 and 11.01 K/9. The flyball pitcher did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with a HR/9 rate of 0.67. Harden’s average fastball has lost about two miles per hour from where it sat in 2005. Perhaps in an effort to protect his arm, Harden has changed his repertoire and approach. He has all but eliminated his splitter in favor of his change-up, which he threw almost 30 percent of the time in 2008, compared to nine percent in 2005. Harden has also cut back on using his slider – which has regressed from a usage of 10.7 percent in 2005 to just under three percent in 2008.

Both players enter 2009 with question marks. Harden pitched the second highest number of Major League innings in his career, but he was absolutely dominating in both the American and National Leagues. He has the potential to be a top-tiered starter, but with a history of shoulder problems – including the rotator cuff – caution must be used when acquired him in a Fantasy draft. In other words, don’t overpay or spend too early of a pick on the hurler. Expect to get 120-140 above-average innings out of him, and be thankful for anything beyond that.

Hill, who missed significant time in 2008 with forearm tightness, had bone spurs removed from his elbow in September and is expected to be “healthy” when spring training rolls around. If the medical reports are indeed good as the regular season begins, he is a name you should remember in NL-only Fantasy Baseball Leagues. Hill has the potential to provide a number of quality starts, but his ceiling is significantly below that of Harden.


Catching on in Philly

Playing on the same team and at the same position as the hottest player in the Arizona Fall League (Tyler Flowers of the Atlanta Braves organization), Lou Marson did not get a lot of press this past month. However, the 22-year-old backstop prospect is poised to surface in Philadelphia in 2009 – and he has above-average offensive potential at a position that does not traditionally generate a lot of production for fantasy baseball team owners.

Marson was selected out of an Arizona high school in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. His first three pro seasons were spent in relative obscurity thanks to average to below-average offensive numbers. Something clicked, though, in the summer of 2007 when Marson – then 21 – hit .288/.373/.407 with an ISO of .120 in 393 High-A at-bats.

The catcher, who swings from the right side, then improved even more in 2008 at the Double-A level, where he hit .314/.433/.416 in 322 at-bats and earned a one-game appearance at the Major League level. Marson still hasn’t shown much power (.102 ISO in 2008) but his eye at the plate has improved significantly – with an increase in BB% from 11.7 in 2007 to 17.4 in 2008. Marson also had a successful Arizona Fall League in Flowers’ shadow. The Philly’s prospect hit ..324/.425/.588 in 34 at-bats against some of the better pitching in the minor leagues.

Standing – or squatting – in Marson’s way to a Major League career are Carlos Ruiz, 29, and Chris Coste, 35. Both veteran catchers are right-handed and neither one had overly successful offensive seasons. Ruiz hit .219/.320/.300 with an ISO of .081 in .320 at-bats, while Coste managed a line of .263/.325/.423 with an ISO of .161 in 274 at-bats. Ruiz’ off season in 2008 definitely leaves him vulnerable to the incoming young talent. The organization’s second round pick from 2004, Jason Jaramillo, has also spent the last two seasons in Triple-A and should be a capable big league back-up whenever his skills are needed. The Phillies also recently added A-ball Australian prospect Joel Naughton to the 40-man roster.

A little more time at Triple-A certainly won’t hurt Marson, but he is close to being ready to contribute at the Major League level and add his name to the young, talented offensive core in Philadelphia.


Texas, Philly Exchange Former No. 1 Draft Picks

It’s rare for Major League Baseball teams to trade prospects straight up for one another, but that is exactly what happened this past week while clubs were finalizing 40-man rosters for the winter in advance of the Rule 5 draft in early December.

The Philadelphia Phillies, in need of a replacement for departing free agent Pat Burrell, traded Double-A outfielder Greg Golson, who appeared in six games with the big club, to the Texas Rangers for John Mayberry Jr., who had spent the majority of the season in Triple-A. Golson, 23, was the 21st overall selection in the 2004 amateur draft out of a Texas high school. Mayberry was the 19th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft out of Stanford University.

Both players have very different skill sets. Golson is a raw, athletic player with speed and power potential. Mayberry has limited speed and athleticism, but a ton of power. Neither player currently projects to hit for a high average. In 2008, Golson hit .282/.335/.434 with 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 426 at-bats. He posted rates of 7.4 BB% and a scary 30.5 K%. His ISO was .153.

Mayberry hit .268/.302/.512 in 21 Double-A games before moving up to Triple-A. At the higher level, he had a line of .263/.310/.474 with an ISO of .211 in 437 at-bats. Mayberry, 25, whose father John Sr., had a long Major League career, posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 19.5 K% at Triple-A.

Both players obviously have their strengths and weaknesses. And both players are likely to spend time at the Major League level in 2009 making the league minimum salary. Mayberry is currently in line to help fill the void left by Burrell, who hit .250/.367/.507 with an ISO of .257 in 2008. Mayberry could probably come close to Burrell’s production in terms of power – and average – but he’s not likely to walk over 100 times.

Golson, on the other hand, has a chance to open the season as the Rangers’ center fielder, which would allow Josh Hamilton, the incumbent, to slid to one of the corners. Golson, though, must keep looking over his shoulder with top prospect Julio Borbon – also a center fielder, coming off a breakout season, which was split between High-A and Double-A. Borbon is also quite possibly more advanced as a player at this point, which makes the trade a little perplexing from Texas’ standpoint. Golson’s 2009 MLB numbers will likely be little or no help to a fantasy baseball team – unless you’re looking for stolen base potential in an AL-only league.


More Prospects Change Hands

The trade winds continue to blow as the off-season begins to heat up. A number of minor league players were on the move this week as the Chicago Cubs sent promising, and hard-throwing, reliever Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for reliever Kevin Gregg.

Ceda was originally a highly-thought-of starting pitcher whose lack of command and control warranted a move to the bullpen, which took place midway through 2008. The 21-year-old Ceda spent the first half of the season in High-A ball where he allowed 41 hits in 55.1 innings over 12 starts (15 total appearances). He also posted rates of 4.64 BB/9 and 8.78 K/9. His Double-A relief numbers included 26 hits allowed in 30.1 innings, with rates of 4.15 BB/9 and 12.46 K/9. Ceda is still raw, and a long way from realizing his potential as a dominating closer, but he could see time in Florida in 2009 where he will showcase a high-90s fastball and mid-80s slider.

In a separate deal, the New York Yankees acquired slumping veteran OF/1B Nick Swisher and minor league reliever Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for MLB reserve infielder Wilson Betemit, Triple-A starting pitcher Jeff Marquez and Double-A reliever Jhonny Nunez. It’s impressive that New York managed to get Swisher for those three players, let alone have Chicago toss in a B-level minor league reliever. Texeira has average stuff but he has more than enough talent to be a middle reliever in Major League Baseball. At High-A ball, he allowed 28 hits in 38.2 innings and posted rates of 3.26 BB/9 and 8.38 K/9. At Double-A, he allowed 18 hits in 22.1 innings and posted rates of 2.82 BB/9 and 9.67 K/9/. Texeira may actually be the most talented of the three prospects that changed hands in this deal… which speaks less about his overall talent and more about the quality of prospects that Chicago received.

With that said, Marquez is an interesting player. Only 24, Marquez has the potential to fit in at the back end of the White Sox rotation or as a long reliever. He won 15 games in Double-A in 2007, but his overall numbers were no where near as impressive as the win total. Marquez struggled with injuries in 2008 and started 14 games at Triple-A. He allowed 93 hits in 80.2 innings and posted rates of 2.68 BB/9 and 3.68 K/9. Marquez has always been too hittable and doesn’t strike out many batters, but he’s had constant success in terms of FIP and ERA. He is basically a one-pitch pitcher with a sinker and a collection of below-average or average secondary pitches.

Nunez, 22, has already been the property of the Dodgers, the Nationals, the Yankees and now the White Sox. He is another one-pitch pitcher with a low- to mid-90s fastball, as well as a developing slider and change-up. If he sticks in the bullpen, Nunez can scrap the change-up. In High-A ball this season as a starter, the right-hander allowed 88 hits in 81 innings and posted rates of 2.33 BB/9 and 9.11 K/9. After moving up to Double-A, for both Washington and New York, Nunez allowed 25 hits in 27.1 innings and struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Chicago does love those hard-throwing relievers so Nunez could surface at the Major League level by the end of 2009 if his command continues to improve.


When At First You Don’t Succeed… Sign With Florida

If you want a secret source of power for your NL-only 2009 fantasy teams look no further than Dallas McPherson. The former top third base prospect with the Los Angels Angels, whose career was beset by injuries, rejuvenated his career in 2008 by blasting 42 home runs for Triple-A Albuquerque. His ISO was a Ryan Howard-like at .344. His 2008 triple-slash numbers were .275/.380/.618.

McPherson, who profiles as a MLB first baseman, will be 28 in 2009 and in his prime. Florida has an opening at first base – unless they shift Dan Uggla over from second base or decide to go with rookie Gaby Sanchez. If McPherson comes into spring training in 2008-form, he should have every opportunity to do his best poor-man’s Howard impression (or worst-case scenario… Russell Branyan), which will include a low batting average, a ton of strikeouts… but also a healthy number of walks and power, power, and more power. Including his 11 September 2008 at-bats, McPherson has a career MLB line of .245/.298/.458 in 371 at-bats.

This kind of left-handed power does not grow on trees. At Triple-A in 2008, McPherson launched his 42 homers in 448 at-bats, while also posting rates of 14.5 BB% and 37.5 K%. An encouraging sign from this past season is that McPherson stole 14 bases – in 20 attempts – which suggests his back injuries truly are a thing of the past. The former second round draft pick still struggles against left-handed pitching and hit just .231/.320/.537 against southpaws in Triple-A. He also hits much better when he is ahead in the count (.400), than he does when he’s in the hole (.136)… suggesting his approach could still use a little work (grip-and-rip doesn’t work well with two strikes).


Don’t Race Out to Steal Bonifacio

The Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals consummated a deal this week that saw Major Leaguers Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham relocate to the nation’s capital, while a trip of inexpensive youngsters head for some fun in the sun. Of those three players obtained by Florida – Emilio Bonifacio, Jake Smolinski, and P.J. Dean – only Bonifacio is likely to receive any significant playing time in the Majors in 2009… or 2010 or 2011.

Bonifacio was originally signed by Arizona as a non-drafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. He has six minor league seasons under his belt and posted modest numbers during that span, although he did show impressive stolen base abilities each season. His career minor league line is .285/.341/.362 in 2,574 at-bats.

Bonifacio first surfaced in the Majors in 2007 with Arizona and he hit .217/.333/.261 in 23 at-bats. In 2008, he managed 157 at-bats split between Arizona and Washington (He was acquired in the Jon Rauch deal). Bonifacio hit .243/.296/.337 with an ISO of .095 as well as rates of 7.7 BB% and 27.2 K%. He strikes out too much to be an effective lead-off hitter and he does not walk enough to take full advantage of his speed. On the plus side, his strikeout rate in 2008 was about 10 percent higher than in his minor league career, so we can chalk some of that up to the small sample size. Bonifacio also swings at pitches outside the strike zone just 28 percent of the time.

At the Major League level, Bonifaco has been successful stealing bases just seven times in 12 attempts (58%). At the minor league level, Bonifacio has shown the ability to steal 50-60 bases a season, which could come in extremely handy in Fantasy Leagues. Bill James projects Bonifacio to steal 27 bases, at a modest success rate, with regular playing time in 2009. His projection of a .272 average may be a little on the high side, though.

After focusing on some other more important areas in your fantasy draft, look to Bonifacio for some cheap steals – just don’t expect much more out of him.