Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will be looking at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

The Florida Marlins organization is no stranger to relying on rookies. The club has a revolving door at just about every position, and that door starts swinging about the time a player enters his first or second year of arbitration eligibility. The first-base position is no different this season, with Gaby Sanchez as the favorite to replace the dearly-departed Mike Jacobs, who was traded this past off-season to Kansas City for reliever Leo Nunez.

Sanchez was a fourth-round selection by the Marlins out of the University of Miami in 2005. He was originally drafted as a catcher, but moved out to first base and has spent just 13 games at his former position. Sanchez has also played third base in the minors but had a .938 fielding percentage – and below average range – in 62 games at the hot corner at Double-A in 2008.

Offensively, Sanchez has had a solid minor league career and sports a career line of .305/.397/.487 in four minor league seasons. Aside from his 2008 MLB stint, he has not played above Double-A. In 2008 at that level, he hit .314/.404/.513 with an ISO of .199 in 478 at-bats. Sanchez also stole 17 bases (but was caught eight times) and posted solid rates: 12.6 BB% and 14.6 K%. In his MLB debut, he appeared in just five games and went 3-for-8 (.375) with two doubles and two strikeouts.

As mentioned earlier, Sanchez will be replacing Jacobs, who mashed 32 home runs last season and posted a line of .247/.299/.514 with 93 RBI in 477 at-bats. Jacobs’ ISO was .266 and he posted rates of 7.0 BB% and 24.9 K%. The Marlins (likely) new first baseman will not be able to compete in the home run or RBI departments, but he will provide a much better average, as well as some other secondary stats.

Among the projection systems at FanGraphs, the consensus seems to be that Sanchez, 25, will hit about .272/.346/.430 with 15 home runs or so. Personally, I would expect a higher average, perhaps around .285, along with 15-17 homers, 30-35 doubles, and 65-70 RBI depending on his line-up position. He should also be good for about 10 stolen bases, with is a nice little bonus for a first baseman.

Sanchez’ biggest competition for playing time appears to be former Angels’ prospect Dallas McPherson, who had an excellent Triple-A season in 2008 and hit 42 home runs in 448 at-bats, while playing in a very good hitter’s park. Non-roster invitee Jay Gibbons could also see time at first base, if he looks good this spring. Long-term, the first base job will likely belong to prospect Logan Morrison, 21, who will open 2009 in Double-A. Sanchez obviously has a fairly narrow window in which to establish himself, so keep that in mind in keeper leagues.

Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will look at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

It is no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays are counting on David Price to be a regular member of the 2009 starting rotation. His 2008 season, which culminated with a dominating performance in the playoffs, showed that he has the ability to get Major League hitters out. But that was in the bullpen, where he could rely on his two best pitches – his fastball and slider. It remains to be seen if Price, the first-overall selection in the 2007 amateur draft, can remain dominant for an entire six-to-nine-inning stretch every five days. An improved change-up will certainly help, and he needs to use it more than he did in his five Major League games (1.3%).

Price certainly did not have any major problems in the minors during his one and only pro season. He allowed just seven runs in 34.2 innings in High-A ball before pitching very well at Double-A and Triple-A. In total, Price allowed 92 hits in 109.1 innings, with rates of 2.6 BB/9 and 9.00 K/9.

The good news for the Rays is that the club does not need a lot from Price in 2009, as long as the other starting pitchers remain healthy and do not regress too much. The top four members of the starting rotation remain; the fifth starter – Edwin Jackson – was traded to Detroit for outfield depth. Jackson provided 183.1 innings and 14 wins. His FIP was 4.88 and he posted modest rates of 3.78 BB/9 and 5.30 K/9. Price may have trouble meeting the innings total (His almost 130 innings in 2008 was a career high) but all the other numbers should be in reach.

If the left-hander can exceed Jackson’s numbers significantly, then the other pitchers in the rotation will obviously feel less pressure. Scott Kazmir is coming back from arm issues and pitched in just 27 games last season but was arguably the club’s most dominating starter. Andy Sonnanstine is one of the best No. 4 or 5 starters in baseball and pitched 193.1 innings last season. Matt Garza showed flashes of brilliance but needs to be more consistent. James Shields, the only pitcher on the Rays to throw 200 innings, has been consistent during his two full Major League seasons but he’s not a classic No. 1 starter. If Price can reach his ceiling sooner rather than later, it would allow Shields the opportunity to slide back into the No. 2 or 3 hole in the rotation.

Price really does not have any competition for the fifth spot in the rotation. The organization has a number of promising starting pitchers, including Wade Davis (needs polish), Jeff Niemann (likely headed to the pen), Jacob McGee (had Tommy John surgery), Jeremy Hellickson (needs polish) and James Houser (also needs polish), but none of them have both Price’s ceiling nor his MLB-readiness.

Even if he fails to dominate in 2009, which is more likely than not, Price has an excellent shot at making a significant impact on the Rays team, and he is the early favorite for Rookie of the Year in the American League. From a fantasy perspective, you can likely expect 160-180 innings from Price, as well as 12-14 wins and 120-140 strikeouts.

The general pool of power at third base took a hit recently for Fantasy Leagues when it was announced St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus could miss the first couple of months of the 2009 season due to shoulder surgery. The Cardinals’ options to replace Glaus for the first few months of the season include prospects David Freese and Brian Barden.

Freese was originally obtained by the Cardinals from the Padres in December 2007 for Jim Edmonds. At the time, Freese had just finished up a full season in High-A ball at the age of 24. He hit .302/.400/.489 with an ISO of .187. The third baseman was old for the league and was playing in a very good hitter’s park.

Once in the Cardinals organization, Freese skipped Double-A and began the year in Triple-A, which was certainly a large jump. The 25-year-old had a modest first three months in the league and held his own. The final two months tell the story, though. Freese hit .378/.419/.694 in July and .337/.389/.596 in August. His final line of the season was .306/.361/.550 with an ISO of .244 in 464 at-bats. On the downside, Freese’s rates regressed – but not too badly. His walk rate dropped from 12.2 BB% to 7.8 BB% and his strikeout rate went from 19.7 K% to 23.9 K%.

Barden would seemingly have a better shot at securing the temporary third-base gig because he actually has some big league experience. However, he has a lower ceiling overall and simply has not preformed well in limited MLB experience, with a line of .182/. 217/.205 in 44 at-bats. He does, though, have a career minor league line of .294/.351/.445 in seven seasons. The 27-year-old is better suited to a utility role and emergency call-up for short periods.

Whomever replaces Glaus for April and possibly May, will have smaller than expected shoes to fill – when looking at the incumbent’s output from last season. Glaus hit just three home runs in the first two months with 18 runs scored, 33 RBI and a batting average around .260.

Barden is certainly not a Fantasy option, and Freese probably is not either unless you’re playing in a deep singles league and he is guaranteed the starting role (which he’s not at this point). Glaus is a player you’ll want to monitor and grab once he’s healthy – unless you already have a better option at third.

It isn’t a huge transaction; it probably went by largely unnoticed. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed middle reliever T.J. Beam off waivers from the Pirates yesterday and designated former No. 1 draft pick Russ Adams for assignment.

Adams was originally drafted by the Jays in 2002, which was also the first draft by the organization while under control of current general manager J.P. Ricciardi, who was hired – in part – for his reputation as an excellent talent evaluator. He is also known in some circles for having a rather large ego, so it’s not surprising that the organization actually held on to Adams much longer than it should have.

Adams had a solid career at the University of North Carolina and looked like a scrappy player who would hit for average and steal a ton of bases. Unfortunately, steals were not a part of the Jays’ offensive approach at the time so that aspect of his game was almost immediately snuffed out. In his final college season, Adams hit .370 and stole 45 bases in just 63 games. He also walked 52 times with 19 strikeouts.

In his first taste of pro ball, Adams stole 18 bases and walked 42 times in 67 games between short-season ball and High-A. By 2004 he had received a brief call-up to the Majors and hit .304. Adams then spent all of 2005 at shortstop for the Jays and hit .256/.325/.383. He stole just 11 bases and his defense was shaky, due to a weak throwing arm.

During the course of the next two seasons, Adams struggled with his defence and was bounced around the diamond. His batting also suffered, no doubt in part due to his problems in the field. In 2008, he did not even sniff the Majors. Adams was left to rot in Triple-A and he played a variety of positions, including the outfield. He did not set the world on fire with his bat, but he hit .259/.341/.417 with 11 stolen bases and showed a little more pop than he had in the past with 15 home runs. In the last two seasons, his ISO has hovered around .150, which isn’t too bad for a middle infielder.

Adams needs a change of scenery. He was designated for assignment, which means if he clears waivers, Adams will remain in the system if the Jays don’t release or trade him. For his sake, and for Fantasy owners, I hope he does find his way to another organization that will give him a shot as a second baseman or a utility player. Adams could be a nice sleeper source of steals (finally free from the Toronto Stop Signs) and could even provide a little power in single leagues. His average could rebound too, with the change of scenery and outlook; his strikeouts have risen a bit with the increase in power, but he still had a walk rate of 11.2 BB% in 2008.

Obviously, you don’t want to take Adams on Draft Day. But tuck his name away and monitor the situation. If he ends up somewhere like San Diego that will give him a fair shot – and let him run – then Adams could end helping you at some point during the 2009 Fantasy Season.

With spring training almost here, it also means that Fantasy Baseball season is heating up. If you’re looking for some great advice throughout the season (as well as the pre-season), be sure to check out John Burnson’s Heater Magazine, which provides weekly statistical analysis from some of the smartest minds from across the Internet. The magazine is introducing a new, weekly feature this spring called Radar Tracking, which helps track each team’s moves and ever-changing rosters and player roles to help you prepare for the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season. Each team is being analyzed by writers and bloggers who regularly follow the clubs – quite a few FanGraphs writers have contributed to John’s projects lately. Here is a sneak peek at some of the first week’s Radar Tracking.

The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly made an offer to free agent first baseman Kevin Millar, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, and best known for his time in Boston. The offer is believed to be a minor league deal with the idea of employing him as a part-time bench player. That certainly is the correct role for Millar, a good clubhouse guy, at this point in his career.

Millar’s offensive numbers have been plummeting for the past three seasons and he is of no use to Fantasy Baseball owners, even in AL-only leagues. In the past three seasons, his line has gone from .272/.374/.437 to .254/.365/.420 to .234/.323/.394. Interestingly, his playing time increased each season from 503 to 562 to 610 plate appearances, which says a lot (and nothing good) about the situation in Baltimore. On the plus side, Millar’s power has remained constant (right around .160 ISO) for the past three years. He also takes his healthy share of walks (13.8 BB% in 2007, 11.8 BB% in 2008).

The problem with this potential signing, from a Fantasy perspective, is the negative impact it could have on the playing times of better players. Millar is a first baseman who also spends time at designated hitter. That means he will cut into the playing time of first baseman Lyle Overbay. It also, more importantly, cuts into the playing time of young, promising outfielders Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Lind is more advanced than Snider and could have a fairly productive season, if allowed to play everyday, with the occasional rest against a tough southpaw. Snider has the potential to be a massive star. He will not achieve those lofty heights in 2009 (in part due to his affinity for the strikeout), but there is a danger that he could end up sitting on the bench a fair bit, or find himself on the bus to Triple-A Las Vegas for a good portion of the season. Toronto is not going to contend in 2009, so the club might as well field its young, promising players.

It’s safe to say that Bill Hall does not have a firm grip on the Brewers’ third base job. In fact, after hitting .225/.293/.396 in 2008, he’s lucky to have a Major League job. But that’s what happens when a club has $15.7 million committed to a player.

Thankfully for the Brewers, Hall has the ability to play a number of other positions, including shortstop, second base and the outfield. It’s fortunate because it allows the club the freedom to promote third base prospect Mat Gamel to the Majors, as soon as he’s ready. Gamel, 23, was originally selected in the fourth round out of junior college in 2005. He has been a hitting machine in the minors and has a career line of .305/.375/.489 in 1,710 at-bats. In 2008, he hit .329/.395/.537 in 508 Double-A at-bats. He also appeared in five Triple-A games and two big league games.

Offensively at the Major League level, Gamel has the potential to hit .300 and hit 20 home runs, although the in-game power is still developing. His defense is another story. He made an astonishing 53 errors at third base in 2007 but “improved” in 2008 and made just 30. The club does not have the luxury of hiding him at designated hitter or first base (thanks to Prince Fielder). Left field is not an option thanks to displaced third baseman Ryan Braun. Corey Hart, another promising young hitter, is in right field.

Thankfully, Gamel’s defensive woes will not hurt Fantasy Baseball owners – aside from possibly limiting his playing time and causing him to be removed late in games for defensive purposes. He’s certainly not someone you’ll want to draft to begin the season, but he could become a force in the second half of the year.

After hitting below .190 in his first two pro seasons combined (479 at-bats), it looked like Robert Andino was going to be a bust. The 2002 second round draft pick out of high school improved the next season, though, and hit .280 between two A-ball levels. At the end of 2005, he earned a late-season call-up to Florida and played in 17 games but hit just .159/.245/.250.

In 2006, Andino began his first of three straight seasons in Triple-A. He hit .256/.304/.364 and received another brief call-up to the Majors. The next season, the shortstop had his best full season in the minors and hit .278/.322/.428 in 598 at-bats with 13 triples, 13 home runs and 21 stolen bases (although he was caught 13 times). Andino received his third Major League stint and appeared in seven games.

Finally, in 2008, the Miami native had the chance to spend some significant time in Florida. He appeared in just 43 Triple-A games, while spending the rest of the season in the Majors. That said, he managed to get into just 44 games and had only 63 at-bats while hitting .206/.254/.333 with an ISO of .127. He also posted rates of 6.0 BB% and 36.5 K% while being shuttled between the Majors and Triple-A all season long.

Recently in the newspaper, Andino expressed a desire to play or be traded. It’s not surprising that the 24 year old does not see a future for himself in Florida with Hanley Ramirez at shortstop (.308/.400/.540 career) and Dan Uggla at second base (.262/.341/.490 career). The club also traded for young second baseman Emilio Bonifacio earlier in the off-season. The problem for Andino, though, is that he has little trade value at this point because he has yet to prove that he can hit Major League pitching.

Andino is also out of options, which means he’ll have to go through waivers if Florida attempts to send him down at any point in 2009. The Pittsburgh Pirates were rumored to have been interested in Andino earlier in the winter. There is a lot of varying thought on Andino, who strikes out way too much for a player with modest power. He also does not take advantage of his speed due to poor instincts on the base paths. The CHONE projection system suggests a 2009 line of .237/.296/.352 (in 489 at-bats), while Marcel projects .262/.326/.410 (in 219 at-bats).

It’s possible that everything could click for the athletic Andino is 2009, but a lot of things have to go right for that to happen, including a trade or waiver claim to get him out of Florida.

Some guys get all the breaks and some guys get no breaks. Joe Koshansky of the Colorado Rockies falls squarely into the latter group, thanks in no small part to the presence of Mr. Rockie Todd Helton.

Koshansky has slugged 83 home runs in the past three seasons, including 21 in Triple-A in 2007 and 31 in Triple-A in 2008. The 26-year-old first baseman has also shown the ability to hit for a respectable average in Triple-A, having posted lines of .295/.380/.490 in 2007 and .300/.380/.600 in 2008. His ISO was an eye-popping .300 (anyone with an ISO above .200 is considered a power hitter). The left-handed hitter was no softy against southpaws in 2008. He managed a line of .310/.372/.612 in 116 at-bats.

The former sixth round drafted pick out of the University of Virginia, who signed as a senior selection, is running out of time to prove himself. He’ll be 27 in May, which is about the time power hitters tend to hit their stride. Koshansky is roughly the same build as Richie Sexson (although he’s about four inches shorter than the former Cleveland Indians first baseman). Sexson lost his mojo at the age of 32.

Koshansky’s biggest weakness would be the strikeout. He has posted strikeout rates in the past three seasons of 26.8%, 25.7%, and 34.6%. The first baseman has also begun to earn a bit of a reputation as a possible Quad-A slugger thanks to his struggles at the Major League level in the past two seasons, albeit in a small sample size. Koshansky has a career line of .180/.236/.440 with three home runs in 50 at-bats. Both the CHONE and Marcel projection systems see Koshansky as a .250 hitter. CHONE sees Koshansky as having the ability to slug 25 home runs at the Major League level with regular playing time. Those numbers are not outstanding, but there are a few teams in Major League Baseball that could use that kind of power production.

At 35, Helton’s best days as a power hitter are behind him after managing home run totals of 15, 17, and seven in the past three seasons. Even so, Helton is still a .300 hitter (the injury-marred 2008 season aside) and, in his last two healthy seasons in 2006 and 2007, he drove in a total of 207 runs. He also scored 172 runs. Coming off a poor season due to injuries, and with three more years plus an option remaining on his contract totaling just shy of $60 million, Helton is not going anywhere.

It’s also disconcerting for Koshansky’s future in Colorado that he did not receive more opportunities in 2008 after Helton appeared in just 83 games. The Louisiana native was given just eight starts at first base last season and the club moved third baseman Garrett Atkins across the diamond to allow Ian Stewart the opportunity to play everyday at the hot corner during Helton’s time off.

Clearly, if Koshansky is going to earn a fair shot at a starting role at the Major League level it is not going to come in Colorado. Teams that could use a first baseman or designated hitter include Washington, Florida, Seattle, Los Angeles (AL), and Baltimore (although that club has a crowded outfield picture).

Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik announced yesterday that both Brandon Morrow and Aaron Heilman with have the opportunity to compete in spring training for 2009 starting gigs.

The room is there to accommodate both pitchers – if the organization wants to admit its mistakes and place both disappointing starters – Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista – in the bullpen. The oft-injured Erik Bedard is also not a good bet to spend a full season in the rotation after having his frayed labrum repaired in September. The only real locks in the rotation, at this point, are Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn.

Morrow certainly has more upside – and fantasy potential – than Heilman. The 24-year-old hurler, who has spent the majority of the past two seasons in the bullpen, was hard to hit in 2008 and allowed just 40 hits in 64.2 innings. Batters made contact against Morrow 72.7% of the time (compared to King Felix, for example, at 80.8%).

He also has very good stuff – with a fastball that sits around 95 mph, as well as splitter and a slider. Unfortunately, his repertoire is fastball-heavy at this point and he will have to sharpen up the command and control of his secondary pitches to succeed as a starter.
Morrow’s overall control – or lack thereof – could be his undoing as a starter. His walk rate was a startling 7.11 BB/9 in 2007 but it improved to 4.73 in 2008, which is still far too high.

Heilman certainly cannot compete with Morrow’s raw stuff, but the right-hander has a history of solid command and control. That deserted him in 2008, though, and he posted an out-of-character walk rate of 5.45 BB/9. He was also more hittable in 2008 than in previous seasons and allowed 75 hits in 76 innings. At 30 years of age, Heilman should be peaking as a pitcher, so his 2008 season is a little disturbing. He is also moving to league that produces more offence, which could further muddy his numbers in 2009.

By moving both Morrow and Heilman to the rotation, it would severely damage the Seattle bullpen, which lacks proven, veteran relievers. He may not like it, but remaining in the bullpen will probably benefit both Heilman (Can he hold up health-wise as a starter? Probably not.) and the Mariners. It should also help fantasy owners because the right-hander would not be a top-tiered pitching option and, as a late-inning reliever, he would likely help preserve some of Morrow’s wins.

Chad Gaudin is not a name that should pop up in most 2009 Fantasy Drafts. The Chicago Cubs right-hander is currently earmarked as a reliever on a very deep pitching staff. The starting rotation currently featuring Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, and Sean Marshall (Who recently received a vote of confidence for the last spot).

Jason Marquis was originally slated for the spot before he was dispatched to Colorado for reliever Luis Vizcaino. The Cubs also explored the possibility of acquiring ace Jake Peavy from the Padres, but those talks fizzled. Angel Guzman is another option for the fifth spot, but he has had trouble staying healthy. Jeff Samardzija, a former minor league starter, had a nice debut in the bullpen but his control is iffy. Rich Hill, speaking of iffy control, is busy trying to scare off Steve Blass.

Gaudin, despite his history in the starting rotation, continues to get overlooked. The good news for the right-hander, though, is that the rotation includes Harden. The Canadian made 25 starts for the A’s and Cubs in 2008. The only time he’s started more than 20 games prior to that came all the way back in 2004. That means there will likely be five to 10 starts available at some point in 2009 for a deserving Cubs pitcher.

If Gaudin does get a shot at starting, you may want to pick him up for that stretch. In 2007, the right-hander made 34 starts for Oakland and missed pitching 200 innings by just two-thirds of an inning, so he’s durable despite his 5’10” stature. He also racked up 154 strikeouts during that time. The downside, though, is that he allowed 205 hits and 100 walks. His ERA was a respectable 4.42.

Although Oakland plays in a pitcher’s park, Gaudin actually allowed a lower OPS on the road: .762 versus .790. If anything, the right-hander tired in the second half while pitching the highest innings total in his career. In the first half, he allowed a line of .246/.328/.341; it rose to .290/.385/.515 in his final 16 starts.

Pitching mainly out of the pen in 2008, Gaudin still allowed a few too many hits (92 in 90 innings) but his control rate improved from 4.52 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.70 BB/9. Whether that was directly related to pitching out of the bullpen or simply a point of maturation remains to be seen.

His repertoire remained almost exactly the same from 2007 to 2008 despite the change in role. Gaudin’s fastball sat right around 90 mph on average, although he utilized his slider six percent more often as a reliever (at the expense of the fastball). His change-up was used eight percent of the time in both 2007 and 2008.

The other noticeable change between 2007 and 2008 came on first-pitch strikes. Gaudin pumped in a first-pitch strike five percent more often in 2008 than in the previous season, which could very well be a sign that he is maturing as a pitcher. Despite his six seasons in the Majors, he is still just 25 years of age.

If Gaudin can take the improvements he made in 2008 in the bullpen and apply them during an opportunity in the starting rotation, then alert Fantasy owners could receive a boost at some point during the 2009 season.