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2009 Impact Rookie: Elvis Andrus

In recent seasons hitting has not been an issue for the Texas Rangers ball club. Pitching and defense, though, have been a different stories. The club has been unable to obtain top free agent pitchers to the club, so it must continue to wait for some of the impressive, young pitchers that are currently being developed on the farm (And there are quite a few of them).

As for defense, the club is looking to improve in that area ASAP. Incumbent shortstop Michael Young has been moved to third base, where his lack of range will be less of an issue and he should continue to benefit from good hands and strong throws from the hot corner. The shortstop position has been handed to rookie Elvis Andrus, who was originally obtained from the Atlanta Braves in the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007.

There are some good reasons to be concerned about Andrus this season. He is just 20 years of age and has only 482 at-bats above A-ball and zero experience at the Major League level. On the plus side, though, he did hit .295/.350/.367 with 53 stolen bases. His career line in just under 1,600 at-bats is .275/.343/.361. So far this spring, Andrus is batting .267/.308/.317 with three stolen bases.

The Venezuela native is obviously not going to hit for much power in the Majors with 25 extra bases hits and an ISO of .073 in Double-A, so he’ll have to contribute offensively by playing small ball and using his speed. The good news is that Andrus won’t need to chip in significantly with the bat with the likes of Chris Davis, Josh Hamilton, and Ian Kinsler in the everyday line-up.

Defensively, Andrus has solid actions and excellent range. He still makes too many errors (more than 30 in each of the past three years) but many of those were careless. The club brought in defensive whiz Omar Vizquel as a non-roster invitee as insurance for Andrus, but the veteran could spend the year schooling the youngster on defensive consistency.

From a fantasy perspective, Andrus is not likely to have a huge impact in 2009, although he could be the source of some cheap steals. His value will come on the field – and especially in future seasons – for the Rangers.


Nats Name Two Prospects to Rotation

It should be pretty clear to just about everyone that the Washington Nationals are not going to be a good club in 2009. The team might win a few more games this year thanks to the addition of players such as Adam Dunn, Scott Olsen, and Josh Willingham, but there are still a lot of holes remaining and depth continues to be an issue.

The starting rotation will have an interesting look to it this season, though, as the team recently announced that top pitching prospect Jordan Zimmermann and former Giants prospect Shairon Martis have both made the club as starters. The pair joins starters John Lannan, Olsen, and Daniel Cabrera in making up the starting five to begin the 2009 season. Another promising young starter, Collin Balester, will begin the year in Triple-A Syracuse.

Zimmermann, 22, has flown through the minor leagues after being a second-round draft pick of the Nationals out of a small college in 2007. The organization has deemed him big-league ready after just 37 regular season pro appearances. Last season in Double-A, Zimmermann allowed just 89 hits in 106.2 innings of work, while posting rates of 3.29 BB/9 and 8.69 K/9. This spring, he threw up some flashy numbers with 20 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. Zimmermann allowed just 13 hits, two walks and zero home runs. He can dial his fastball up to 95 mph, although it sits in the low 90s with good sink. He also features a slider, curveball and change-up.

Martis, a Curacao native, was obtained from San Francisco in 2006 for veteran reliever Mike Stanton. Only 22 (tomorrow, March 30), the right-hander received attention after winning 14 games in High-A ball in 2007. He played at three levels in 2008, which included five games (four starts) for the Nationals. In those games, Martis allowed 18 hits in 20.2 innings and posted rates of 5.23 BB/9 and 10.02 K/9. He pitched well at both Double-A and Triple-A. This spring, Martis earned his opportunity to begin the season in the Majors by allowing just 10 hits and four walks in 19 innings. He struck out 11. Martis’ repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, a plus change-up, a curveball and a slider.

Both pitchers should be on a tight pitch count this season given their youth and relatively inexperience, which will prevent them from putting up huge numbers. As mentioned, 2009 will likely be a lost season for the Nationals in terms of wins and a playoff berth, so the team might as well take some chances on some young pitching. It could benefit the club down the line. It’s also nice to see a club resist the temptation to go cheap by delaying prospects’ arbitration clock (I’m talking to you, Baltimore and Tampa Bay).


2009 Impact Rookie: Jose Tabata

We’ve all sifted through Jose Tabata’s dirty laundry this week thanks to his wife. But that story should not diminish the fact that the former Yankees prospect has the potential to have an impact at the MLB level in 2009.

We’ve been hearing a lot about Tabata for a while now and the gifted outfielder is beginning his fifth pro season, but he’s still just 20 years old. He came to North America as a 16 year old in 2006. In his first four pro seasons, Tabata accumulated 1,280 at-bats and hit .296/.366/.401. He had a rough start to the 2008 season with the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate at the age of 19. He hit .248/.320/.310 with three home runs and 10 stolen bases in 294 at-bats.

Then the trade came. Tabata was shipped to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the loot for fellow outfielder Xavier Nady. In Double-A for Pittsburgh, the Venezuelan hit .348/.402/.562 with eight steals in 89 at-bats. This spring, while also dealing with shoulder soreness, Tabata has hit .407/.500/.556 in 27 at-bats.

The Pirates club is loaded with outfielders, which all but guarantees Tabata will begin the year in Triple-A. That would not be a bad thing given his age, inexperience and the ‘media incident’ that he had to deal with this spring. If he gets his feet underneath him quickly in Indianapolis, though, Tabata has the skill to best the likes of Nyjer Morgan, Eric Hinske and even fellow outfield prospect Brandon Moss.

Tabata has been filling out so he’s becoming less and less of a stolen base threat at this point and his power has yet to fully develop, which will hinder him offensively as a Major League right-fielder. With that said, he could still provide eight to 10 home runs, as well as 10-15 stolen bases, along with a decent average if given 400 at-bats during his first MLB season.


Minor Fantasy News: More Demotions

As spring training slowly inches towards an end with the regular season looming on the horizon, Major League Baseball teams have begun to make difficult roster decisions.

The Cleveland Indians organization had a number of big moves this past week, giving starting rotation spots to two young hurlers: Scott Lewis and Anthony Reyes, who was obtained late last season from St. Louis. Lewis made four starts for Cleveland in 2008. Reyes appeared in 16 games (six starts) between his two MLB clubs last year with an ERA of 2.76 (4.15 FIP). The club demoted two other young, left-handed pitchers: Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey. Sowers made 22 starts for the Indians last season, with an ERA of 5.58 (5.05 FIP). Laffey made 16 starts at the MLB level with an ERA of 4.23 (4.88 FIP). The organization also demoted outfielders Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley, as well as first baseman Michael Aubrey.

In Tampa Bay, the organization demoted a number of its top prospects, including pitcher David Price and hitters Reid Brignac, John Jaso and Justin Ruggiano. Price, the top prospect in baseball, was considered the favorite for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, but the club will delay his arbitration eligibility by keeping him in the minors until May. The club will likely go with either Jeff Niemann or Jason Hammel in the No. 5 spot to begin the season. Brignac is the club’s shortstop of the future, but he needs to play everyday at Triple-A.

Atlanta sent down a pair of young pitchers: Tommy Hanson and Jo-Jo Reyes. Hanson has yet to appear in the Majors but he had a breakout 2008 season and is considered the club’s top pitching prospect. Reyes has appeared in 33 games over two seasons with the Braves, but he owns a career ERA of 5.94 (5.60 FIP).

A number of catching prospects received demotions. Texas optioned Max Ramirez to Triple-A, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden likely splitting the catching chores to begin the season. Houston sent J.R. Towles down. The club recently inked veteran Ivan Rodriguez to a 2009 contract, which sealed Towles’ fate. In Pittsburgh, former Phillies prospect Jason Jaramillo has apparently won the back-up job despite being out-hit by former Toronto prospect Robinzon Diaz. Jaramillo hit .143 in 28 at-bats, while Diaz hit .423 in 26 at-bats. Ryan Doumit will get the bulk of the MLB at-bats. After acquiring Ronny Paulino, Florida demoted two catchers: Mike Rabelo and Brett Hayes.

Milwaukee sent two key offensive prospects to the minors in third baseman Mat Gamel and catcher Angel Salome. Both players need to continue to work on their defense at the minor league level. Kansas City demoted first baseman Kila Ka’aihue, whose dream of playing regularly in 2009 was squashed when the club obtained Mike Jacobs from the Marlins during the off-season.


2009 Impact Rookie: Jeff Samardzija

There are a lot of differing opinions on the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija. The former Notre Dame football player was swayed away from a potential National Football League career with a huge pro contract from Chicago (Five-year MLB contract, $10 million). Despite being raw on the mound, the right-handed pitcher has a huge fastball to go along with questionable command and control.

After being selected in the fifth round of the 2006 draft, Samardzija spent less than two years in the minors before making his MLB debut. His minor league numbers were modest: a career ERA of 4.26 with 302 hits allowed in 285 innings (9.5 H/9). He also struck out just 166 batters during that span, good for a rate of 5.2 K/9. His walk rate was 3.6 BB/9.

At the Major League level, Samardzija’s numbers were more impressive, no doubt aided by the fact he moved to the bullpen where he did not need to throw his below-average secondary pitches, which include a nascent change-up (although he still tossed it in slightly more than five percent of the time at the MLB level). The 24-year-old hurler allowed 24 hits in 27.2 innings of work and struggled with his control by posting a walk rate of 4.88 BB/9. Oddly, his strikeout rate was almost 3.0 K/9 higher than his three-year minor league average, with a rate of 8.13 K/9.

At the MLB level, Samardzija averaged around 95 mph with his fastball, which he threw 69 percent of the time. His second pitch was a splitter at 86 mph, followed by a slider at 83 mph. It remains to be seen if Samardzija will be allowed to spend the year in the bullpen or if the Cubs will send him to Triple-A to continue to develop as a starter. If he does remain in the pen, he could be a darkhorse candidate for saves this season although both Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg remain ahead of him on the depth chart. As well, with Rich Harden in the starting rotation, there will always been an opportunity for the No. 6 starter in the organization to get plenty of innings.


2009 Impact Rookie: Dexter Fowler

The Colorado Rockies organization has always had a deep outfield in terms of depth and production, but Dexter Fowler could end up being one of the best players to ever graze the pasture. And his impact on the club could begin in 2009. The athletic outfielder is having a solid spring but it remains to be seen if he has played well enough to wrestle the starting center field job away from Ryan Spilborghs, who is hitting .386/.463/.818 with four home runs and five stolen bases. If Fowler does not win the starting job, he will certainly play everyday in Triple-A rather than sit on the bench in the Majors.

The 23-year-old prospect had a solid season in Double-A in 2008 with a line of .335/.431/.515, as well as 20 stolen bases and nine home runs, in 421 at-bats. Fowler posted rates of 13.4 BB% and 21.1 K%. He also earned his first call-up to the Majors, where he hit .154 in 26 at-bats. So far this spring, Fowler is hitting .313/.370/.438 with four stolen bases.

The outfield picture has changed somewhat from last year after the club traded Matt Holliday to the Oakland Athletics during the off-season, and also brought in young outfielders Matt Murton and Carlos Gonzalez via trades. Other players in the mix for a roster spot include Brad Hawpe and Seth Smith. Dan Ortmeier and Scott Podsednik are attempting to make the club as non-roster invitees to spring.

The switch hitter was drafted in the 14th round out of high school in 2004, but would have been selected much higher if he had not had college offers from a number of schools, including Harvard. Defensively, he is an excellent center fielder. He stole more than 40 bases in 2006, but at 6’5” he could easy fill out and lose some of his quickness. A future 20-20 season is not out of the question, if he can learn to drive the ball more.

If he can obtain a starting outfield job in the first couples of months in 2009, Fowler could have a definite impact on Fantasy teams. He has the potential to provide some steals, as well as a respectable average. The power, though, will have to wait for 2010 and beyond.


Minor Fantasy News: Demotions Part 2

Yesterday, we took a look at some of the pitchers that were recently demoted to the minors. Today, we’ll highlight some position players – who could still have impacts on the MLB 2009 season – that were sent down to the minors in the last few days.

After a breakout 2008 season, Drew Sutton has positioned himself to be the Houston Astros’ second baseman of the future. For the time being, though, it appears that Kaz Matsui, despite currently hitting .054 in 37 spring at-bats, will be ‘The Man’ while Sutton continues to work on his game in Triple-A. Last season in Double-A, the 25-year-old infielder hit .317/.408/.523 with 20 homers and 20 steals in 520 Double-A at-bats. Sutton also hit very well in the Arizona Fall League.

The Pirates demoted two third-base prospects in recent days in Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, both former No. 1 draft picks by the organization. Alvarez has a much higher ceiling than Walker, who could eventually become trade bait – unless one of the two players moves somewhere else on the diamond. Despite not having a minor league at-bat yet, after signing late last year, Alvarez may be more MLB-ready than Walker, who spent 2008 in Triple-A and hit .242 with a walk rate of 5.4%. Walker hit .231 this spring in 39 at-bats, while Alvarez killed the ball with a .444 average in just 18 at-bats. Fellow youngster Andy LaRoche will have first shot at the third-base job in Pittsburgh and is hitting .483 in 29 at-bats.

He doesn’t have a ceiling as high as some of the other players on this list but Tug Hulett has the potential to be a solid regular – or a utility player capable of hitting .270-.280 with more than his fair share of walks. He was obtained off waivers by the Royals from the Seattle Mariners organization during a 40-man roster crunch and had a shot at being KC’s second baseman in 2009. However, displaced outfielder Mark Teahen is having a lights-out spring and could end up at the position despite average-at-best defense. Hulett received just nine spring at-bats.

Jarrett Hoffpauir has posted some solid numbers in the last couple of seasons in the Cardinals organization. Combined with the club’s desperate need for a second baseman, Hoffpauir seemed like a perfect fit. However, despite hitting .333 in 18 at-bats without a strikeout, the 25 year old was an early spring cut. The Cardinals organization appears to favor outfielder-turned-second-baseman Skip Schumaker and minor league vet Joey Thurston. Another surprising early cut for the Cardinals, outfielder Brian Barton spent the entire 2008 season with the club after being a Rule 5 draft pick out of the Cleveland organization.

The White Sox demoted catcher Cole Armstrong, 25, to the minors yesterday. He was an early favorite to back-up veteran A.J. Pierzynski, but both players are left-handed batters, which hurt Armstrong’s chances. The job will now likely go to someone like minor league vet Corky Miller or Chris Stewart. The club could also consider a veteran castoff like Josh Bard, who was just let go by the Red Sox.


Minor Fantasy News: Demotions

We’ll take a quick break from previewing the top impact rookies for 2009 to take a look at some of the prospects that were sent down to the minor leagues in recent days. This post will touch on some of the pitchers that are near-MLB-ready, while a later post will look at the hitters.

Brett Cecil (Toronto) had an impressive spring and almost made the club despite having just been drafted in 2007. The former college reliever was also slowed by arm problems early in 2008 and had a strict pitch count for much of the season. Now a starter, the southpaw will begin the year in Triple-A to work on his fastball command, but he could surface before long with the likes of Matt Clement and Scott Richmond still in the mix for the Jays starting rotation. He has above-average stuff – including an 88-93 mph fastball – for a lefty.

Jose Ceda (Florida) was acquired in the off-season from the Cubs for reliever Kevin Gregg. Although still raw, Ceda was considered a long-shot candidate for saves in the Florida bullpen for 2009. A sore shoulder has kept the hard-throwing right-hander from pitching in game situations this spring. The 22 year old struck out 42 batters in 30.1 Double-A innings in 2008.

Teammates Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman (Baltimore) are arguably the top two pitchers in the Orioles system but both were reassigned to the minor league camp and will open the year in either Double-A or Triple-A. Given the state of the big club’s starting rotation (Adam Eaton, Danys Baez, etc.), both pitchers could be in the Majors by May or June. Arrieta, 23, allowed just 80 hits in 113 High-A innings in 2008. Tillman, 20, allowed 115 hits in 135.2 Double-A innings in 2008. Both have the ceiling of No. 2 starters at the Major League level. David Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A after appearing in just one spring game (and one inning) in which he walked two. He could see his first MLB action as a long man in the bullpen at some point in 2009, although he could also get a shot at starting. Hernandez allowed 112 hits in 142 Double-A innings in 2008.

With the veteran starters pitching well, the Cardinals felt comfortable sending down pitching prospects Jess Todd and Mitch Boggs. Todd, a reliever-turned-starter, struggled a bit this spring by allowing nine hits in 6.1 innings and will likely begin the year in Triple-A. He’s the clubs best starting pitching prospect, so he could make his MLB debut before too long if Chris Carpenter’s injury woes pop up again, or if Joel Pineiro and/or Todd Wellemeyer start pitching like their old selves. Boggs’ ceiling is below that of Todd’s but he also has more MLB experience, after making eight appearances in 2008. That said, he allowed a 7.41 ERA at the MLB level. He’s battled shoulder problems this spring so he’ll get that sorted out in Triple-A.

Wade Davis and Mitch Talbot (Tampa Bay) both received a demotion to Triple-A, thanks to the club’s depth in the starting rotation (Who would have said that two years ago?). Davis is considered the club’s brightest pitching prospect (not named David Price) and could be the first starter called up if injuries strike. Talbot is a little under-the-radar as a prospect, but he’s won 26 games in the past two seasons at Triple-A and has little left to prove in the minors. The 25-year-old hurler is a little too hittable, though, and is probably a long-term reliever at the MLB level.

Although technically no longer a rookie, Ian Kennedy (New York AL) has fewer than 60 innings pitched at the Major League level and he was sent packing with a veteran-heavy rotation (plus Joba) already established. Kennedy is quickly falling out of favor in New York and he did not help himself this spring with a 5.91 ERA in four games. He was also out-pitched by fellow youngster Phil Hughes who survived the cuts, although the latter has been struggling with his control.


2009 Impact Rookie: Chris Perez

The ninth inning has been a tumultuous time for St. Louis Cardinals fans in recent years – with the 2008 season being no different. Three players saved seven or more games last year: starter-turned-reliever Ryan Franklin (3.55 ERA) with 17, former closer Jason Isringhausen (5.70) with 12 and rookie Chris Perez (3.46) with seven. Although he appeared in 41 games, Perez is still a rookie for 2009 in most people’s eyes because he did not surpass the magical 50 IP mark.

Isringhausen, now with Tampa Bay, was the Cardinals go-to guy for much of his seven seasons in St. Louis and he saved 217 games. However, he was never a truly dominating closer and he blew 38 save opportunities his seven seasons. Isringhausen also struggled mightily in 2006 and 2008 with a total of 17 blown saves in 62 opportunities. Although Franklin saved 17 games in 2008, he is not considered the long-term solution given his average stuff, eight blown saves last year and age (36).

The future likely belongs to former college closer Perez, although manager Tony LaRussa is not going to entrust a young pitcher in such a vital position without absolute proof that he is the best man for the job. Perez had a solid debut season with 34 hits allowed in 41.2 innings of work. He posted a respectable strikeout rate at 9.07 K/9 but he struggled with his control (which has been the knock on him) by posting a rate of 4.75 BB/9. Perez relied heavily on two pitches out of the pen: a fastball that averaged 95 mph, and a slider.

So far this spring, he has allowed three runs in five innings, with three strikeouts and three walks. Fellow rookie Jason Motte – another hard-throwing reliever albeit with less polish – has allowed just one earned run in five innings but also has seven strikeouts and no walks. Perez has one save on the spring, while Motte, a 26-year-old converted catcher, has two. It’s clear that Perez is not going to be handed the closer’s role this April when teams break camp. He has plenty of competition and LaRussa could simply go with a closer-by-committee or simply call on the pitcher with the hot hand – or play match-ups.

Over time, though, Perez should be the favorite to earn saves in St. Louis for the long haul. In 2009, expect a 3.50 ERA with 10-12 saves in 65 innings pitched with about 30 walks and 70 strikeouts. If he does worm his way into a more regular role as the team’s closer, be prepared to snap him up.


2009 Impact Rookie: Matt LaPorta

Despite losing one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball with the trade of C.C. Sabathia, the Cleveland Indians received one of the most talented up-and-coming sluggers in return from the Milwaukee Brewers. Matt LaPorta was selected seventh overall by the Brewers in the 2007 amateur draft after a four-year stay at the University of Florida.

With a young star named Prince Fielder already established at first base in Milwaukee, LaPorta was shifted off his traditional defensive position to left field. Most scouts felt the move was suicide and that the below-average-fielding first baseman would be lost in left. LaPorta’s play, though, has some now feeling that he could be a fringe-average outfielder at the Major League level. However, with the trade to Cleveland, the right-handed hitting slugger could settle into a big league gig at first base and/or designated hitter.

Currently, the club has the oft-injured Travis Hafner (left-handed hitter), and Ryan Garko (right-handed) filling the 1B/DH roles. LaPorta’s prodigious power (.577 career slugging) could match that of Hafner’s in his prime, and surpass anything that Garko (career .447 SLG, .404 in 2008) might have to offer. Hafner’s power output and slugging percentages have dropped off dramatically in the past two seasons (.451 SLG in 2007 and .323 in 2008).

LaPorta’s first full pro season was spent in Double-A in 2008, first in the Milwaukee organization (302 at-bats), and then in the Cleveland system (60 at-bats). He also spent time playing in the Olympics after the trade, where he suffered a concussion that plagued him for the remainder of the season. During his time at Double-A with Milwaukee, LaPorta hit .288/.402/.576 with an ISO of .288. He also showed his prowess as a run-producer by driving in 66 batters in just 84 games. LaPorta also posted solid rates: 13.0 BB% and 20.9 K%.

The Florida native has been seeing plenty of playing time this spring with Cleveland and is currently hitting .300/.391/.550 in eight games. There is not a lot of work he needs to do in the minors, although breaking balls still give him some trouble. LaPorta could very well open the season in Cleveland – or surface by May. If he does play the majority of the season in Cleveland, expect about 20 home runs, as well as a .260 average to go along with a healthy dose of walks and a pile of strikeouts. With experience, LaPorta will likely raise his average and cut down on the strikeouts.