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Minor Impacts: Aug. 6

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Desmond Jennings: When a left shoulder injury wiped out most of Jennings’ 2007 season, it stood to reason that the talented outfielder’s timetable would get pushed back. However, no one told Jennings. The 22-year-old picked up right where he left off in 2007. In fact, his two triple-slash lines are almost eerily similar to this point:

.315/.401/.465 (in 387 at-bats at high-A in 2007)
.316/.395/.486 (in 383 at-bats at double-A in 2009)

Even Jennings’ walk rates and strikeout rates are similar. His wOBA, though, has improved from .399 to .415. With 100 games under his belt in double-A, Rays management recently promoted Jennings to triple-A. In four games, he’s hitting .250 with a double, four Ks and a couple of stolen bases. Defensively, the center fielder has good range and an average arm. He may get a taste of the Majors this September and Jennings should be ready to contribute on a regular basis by mid-2010. That would give the Rays an incredibly athletic outfield with Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton already on hand.

Jose Tabata: Like Jennings, this former Yankees’ prospect has also benefited from a recent promotion to triple-A. Tabata battled injuries (and the tabloids, thanks to his wife) early on in the season before establishing himself at double-A with a line of .303/.370/.404 with two homers and seven steals (in 13 attempts) in 228 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has yet to show the power expected of him but he’s hitting for average and controlling the strike zone well (11 K%). At only 20 years of age, Tabata has time to learn to drive the ball over the fences with more regularity. Defensively, he is a good center fielder, but he won’t move Andrew McCutchen out of position in Pittsburgh. As a result, Tabata will probably end up in right field, thanks to his strong arm. When that happens, though, his lack of power will become even more evident.

Ian Desmond: We’ve been hearing hype on Desmond for a while now but the slick fielder is just beginning to justify that talk with his performance at the plate. After struggling to hit for average early in his career, the 23-year-old prospect his .306/.372/.494 with six homers and 13 steals in 170 at-bats in double-A. Desmond still needs to show a little more patience at the plate with a walk rate of just 8.6 BB%. Another word of warning: Desmond’s BABIP is much higher this season over his career norm. In two previous stints in double-A, his BABIPs were .256 and .296. This year it was .371. His offensive showing in double-A was good enough to get him promoted to triple-A where he is currently hitting .298/.420/.351 through 18 games. With the club having given a two-year extension through 2010 to incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman, it buys Desmond a little more time to hone his batting skills in triple-A next year. However, an injury to Guzman (or perhaps a trade to free up his $8 million salary) could get Desmond to Washington by the end of July next year.

Jason Castro: The Astros organization has slowly been benefiting from its minor league system over the past few seasons and it has enjoyed contributions from players such as Hunter Pence and Bud Norris. Catcher Jason Castro – the club’s 2008 first-round pick – should be the next significant contributor after surpassing J.R. Towles as the club’s backstop of the future. Castro, 22, began the 2009 season in high-A and hit .309/.399/.517 with seven homers in 207 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then moved up to double-A where he is currently hitting .304/.358/.405 with two homers in 148 at-bats. His power numbers were probably exaggerated a bit in high-A ball due to the fact he was playing in Lancaster (one of the best offensive parks in minor league ball) and his ISO has dropped from .208 in high-A to .101 in double-A. Regardless, he’s still an above-average offensive catcher who has really improved defensively behind the dish.

Jake Arrieta: With fellow pitching prospects Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman having recently arrived in the Majors, Arrieta is now waiting for his shot in Baltimore. The right-hander’s ceiling is not quite as high as the other two pitchers but he should slide into the No. 3 spot in the rotation very nicely. Arrieta, 23, began the year in double-A where he allowed 45 hits in 59 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.51 BB/9 and 10.68 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Arrieta has struggled a bit with 56 hits allowed in 51.2 innings. He’s posted a walk rate of 3.14 and a strikeout rate of 8.54 K/9. The right-hander has also allowed almost twice as many home runs but in eight fewer innings. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a slider and a changeup.

Andrew Cashner: After having success in the bullpen in college, Cashner rose into the first round of the draft in 2008, which is where the Cubs organization nabbed him. He was moved into the starting rotation in pro ball to get more innings under his belt and he may end up sticking as a starter. Cashner began the year in high-A where he allowed 31 hits in 42 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 3.21 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.29 K/9. With a promotion to double-A, the right-hander has allowed just 14 hits in 24.2 innings. His rates have remained almost exactly the same. He’s also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just one homer allowed on the year. The Cubs rotation does not look as formidable as it once did so Cashner could help out sooner rather than later. With any luck, though, the organization will avoid bouncing him back and forth between the rotation and the ‘pen, which it did with Jeff Samardzija (with limited success). Cashner’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph (more often out of the ‘pen), a plus slider, and a changeup.


Minor Impacts: July 30

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Josh Donaldson: The Cubs originally signed Donaldson as a supplemental first round pick out of college, but he slumped a bit at the beginning of his first full pro season. Oakland pounced and had him included in the trade for Rich Harden. The organization then aggressively promoted him one level upon his arrival and he hit .330/.391/.564 in 188 at-bats. This season in double-A, the catcher’s offense has come back to earth a bit again and Donaldson, 23, has a line of .271/.398/.429 with 32 doubles and six homers in 329 at-bats. He’s also posted an outstanding walk rate of 17.3% and a respectable strikeout rate of 20.7%. He won’t be a star, but Donaldson could be an above-average offensive catcher in the Majors.

Travis Snider: After a disappointing beginning to his MLB career, the 21-year-old left-fielder was sent back down to triple-A where he missed time with an injury. Finally getting back into the swing of things after missing all of June, Snider is swinging a big bat. He has seven home runs and 17 RBI in 22 July games, including three homers and nine RBI in his last 10 games. On the down side, Snider’s average is still below .260 and he’s striking out a lot. But you have to expect those kinds of things with young players. He’s definitely a future star, but he’s going to have his ups and downs. Just be patient.

Cameron Maybin: Like Snider, Maybin’s rookie season has not gone quite as expected and he is currently riding buses in triple-A, rather than traveling in style in The Show. With that said, his performance in triple-A has been outstanding and he looks ready for another shot in the Majors, which has been oddly slow in coming. Currently, the Marlins outfield prospect is hitting .325/.413/.469 with 14 doubles in 228 at-bats. He’s also increased his walk rate, while trimming his strikeout rate significantly. Maybin’s power numbers have been down and he’s also stopped stealing bases so his value is really tied up in his average right now. Regardless, he’s making positive steps and could be up any day now.

C.J. Retherford: With Josh Fields possibly on his way out of Chicago, this former non-drafted amateur free agent (a great scouting job by the White Sox) could suddenly find himself jumping up the depth chart at third base. Retherford has done nothing but hit since signing and he’s currently hitting .294/.334/.471 with 28 doubles and eight homers in 340 at-bats. The 23-year-old does not possess a ton of power; his swing is more geared to the line drive. His walk rate has also dipped each season and is down to 6.3 BB% in 2009 at double-A. The right-handed hitter has potential, but Retherford needs to be a little more patient.

Brooks Brown: Prior to the season, the Diamondbacks sent Brown to the Tigers so the National League organization could have the rights to Rule 5 draft pick James Skelton, who was then optioned to the minors. Brown, a former supplemental first round pick, had been a disappointment to that point in his pro career. He’s still not a strikeout pitcher, and never will be, but Brown has learned how to pitch to his strengths and rely on his defense. His fastball is in the upper 80s most of the time, but he has a solid ground-ball rate of 50.4% between double-A and triple-A this season. Brown’s walk rate has taken a hit lately, but his control has seen signs of improving overall. A starter in the minors, the 24-year-old is headed to the bullpen (possibly as a swing man) in the Majors but he should still be a useful arm who could luck into a number of vulture wins.

Sam Demel: A former third-round pick out of college, Demel has risen quickly through the minors and is on the cusp of his big-league debut. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.79 FIP in double-A while allowing 23 hits in 29.1 innings of work and a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, he’s allowed just eight hits (but 11 walks) in 15.1 innings. He also has 14 Ks. The two key things that Demel needs to work on are: consistency and command. He has the upside of a set-up man with a low-90s fastball that has touched 95 mph, as well as a slider and changeup.


Welcome to the Mountain: Jhoulys Chacin

When set-up man Manny Corpas was placed on the disabled list last Friday by the Colorado Rockies, the club promoted one of its top starting-pitching prospects and placed him into the big-league bullpen.

Jhoulys Chacin made his MLB debut on July 25 against the San Francisco Giants. The 21-year-old Venezuelan worked a scoreless, hit-less inning. He walked one batter and struck out two (including veteran Juan Uribe to end the game) in the 8-2 win for the Rockies. Against the Giants, the game plan from catcher Chris Iannetta was clear: Get ahead in the count with fastballs and then drop the hook, which Chacin did successfully with both his strikeout victims.

Chacin has the potential to be a dominating late-game reliever, but he’s shown throughout his pro career that he also has a chance to be a solid No. 2 or 3 starter, so his work in the ‘pen should be short-lived. It’s a smart move by the organization to ease the right-hander in slowly, given that he has not pitched above double-A until now. This season in Tulsa, he’s allowed 87 hits in 103.1 innings, while posting a walk rate of 3.05 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.49 K/9. His control has taken a step back this year, as he walked about two batters per nine innings last year. His strikeout rate has also dropped about one K per nine innings over 2008. Chacin’s 4.01 FIP is also much higher than his 3.14 ERA and with a .273 BABIP, he’s probably been helped a fair bit by his defense.

The Rockies prospect has a good sinking fastball that peaks at 94 mph and he also has a nice changeup. His breaking ball is still a work in progress and is one of the main culprits behind his struggles at double-A in 2009. With any luck, while pitching out of the Colorado bullpen, he can work on sharpening up his curve. To further his development and value, though, the Rockies coaches will have to ensure that Chacin works on the pitch in game situations and does not stick the pitch in his back pocket in favor of his fastball-changeup combo.

Just 21, Chacin has a bright future in Colorado, especially with a career minor league ground-ball rate of 59.6%. The right-hander could end up being a key, young arm late in the 2009 season for the Colorado Rockies, but his fantasy baseball value should be much higher in 2010 and beyond as a member of the starting rotation.


Seattle Rolls Out Saunders

The Seattle Mariners organization continued its aggressive promotion of prospects this past weekend when it promoted outfielder Michael Saunders from triple-A. The move adds yet another solid defensive player to the outfield mix, which already includes Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ryan Langerhans (Endy Chavez is on the 60-day DL).

A native Canadian, Saunders was an 11th-round selection out of a British Columbia high school in 2004, but he spent one season at a Florida community college before entering pro ball in ’05. His biggest strength as a defensive player is his strong arm, which could make him a solid right-fielder if his power develops as projected. He can play center field, as well, where his range is considered average.

At the plate, Saunders has shown a consistent ability to hit between .270 and .300. His power output has increased each of the past four seasons, with his ISO rising each year from .106 in 2006 to .234 in 2009. Saunders has seen his walk rate dip a bit in the past two seasons (down to 9.2 BB% in 2009), but he has trimmed almost 10% off of his strikeout rate this year.

Early on in his career, the left-handed hitter actually performed better against southpaws than right-handers, but that has changed since he started facing better pitching in double-A and triple-A. Saunders has struggled against lefties over the past two seasons, although he is not completely useless against them (.247/.312/.400 vs LHP compared to .344/.411/.620 vs RHP in ’09).

On the base paths, Saunders has started to slow down the running game as his body has filled out a bit. His stolen base totals have dropped from 29 in 2007 to 12 to just six in 2009. Saunders has always had average speed, but his instincts allowed him to steal 20-plus bases each season and he should still be good for five to 10 a year at the Major League level.

Overall, Saunders currently shows the potential to produce a 15 homer/15 stolen base season in a full season. In his prime, though, he should be able to top the 20-homer mark, but the stolen bases will decrease with age. His playing time could be affected by the fact that he is a left-handed batter, just like Ichiro, Langerhans, Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr. Of the outfielders currently on the big-league roster, only Gutierrez swings from the right side.


Minor Impacts: July 23

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Drew Stubbs: The Reds’ outfield is not instilling much fear in opponents as of late. Willy Taveras and Laynce Nix each have OBPs below .300. With Jay Bruce’s 18 homers on the DL, Nix leads the outfielders with eight dingers on the year. Thankfully, the organization keeps churning out outfield prospects. Stubbs is absolutely dripping with potential, athleticism and tools. Although he’ll likely always struggle to hit for a high average due to his contact issues (25.4 K%), the left-handed hitter could still manage to bat .250-.270. He has just two homers on the year, but Stubbs has the potential to hit 10-15 with his fair share of walks in the Majors when he matures as a hitter. Currently, he has 36 steals in 42 attempts and plays a plus centerfield.

Matt LaPorta: Chris Gimenez‘ versatility (He can catch) gives him a defensive edge over LaPorta, who is the much better offensive player and is currently wasting his time at triple-A. With 1B/DH Ryan Garko entering his expensive years in arbitration, he’ll likely be gone sooner rather than later, so Cleveland should just ship him out now to make room for LaPorta, who is a better hitter and comes much cheaper. LaPorta struggled in an early call-up to the club, but he received just 42 at-bats. For a club that’s going nowhere, it makes sense to give a 24-year-old – with the potential to hit 30 homers – a chance to play. He’s currently hitting .314/.390/537 with 11 homers in 255 triple-A at-bats.

Brandon Allen: Speaking of teams going nowhere, Arizona is in a similar situation, which is one of the reasons why the club jettisoned veteran pinch hitter and first baseman Tony Clark at the All-Star break. The club currently has Chad Tracy playing first base, but his offense is below-average for his position and he cannot stay healthy. Back-up first baseman Josh Whitesell is a career minor-leaguer who has constantly been overlooked, despite solid numbers. Whitesell will have to take advantage of his narrow window of opportunity, because Allen is waiting in the wings. Acquired earlier this season from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, Allen is a big-bodied slugger who has developed quickly over the past two seasons after originally being drafted out of high school in 2004. Last season, he hit 29 homers between high-A and double-A. This season, he’s got just 13 between double-A and triple-A, but he’s showing signs of becoming a better hitter due to a higher average (that’s not dependent on a high BABIP) and lower strikeout rates compared to his career norm. Since the trade to Arizona, he’s been on fire with a .364 average and five homers in 10 games.

Danny Valencia: To say Minnesota could use some stability at third base would be an understatement and Valencia just keeps getting better and better. With Joe Crede struggling with the bat as well as his health, and the likes of Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert offering little in the way of offense, the club needs to consider promoting Valencia as the team fights for a playoff spot. The 24-year-old third base prospect began the year in double-A before a promotion to triple-A where he’s currently hitting .362/.371/.616 with five homers in 24 games. Although his patience at the plate comes and goes (and when has Minnesota ever cared about OBP?), he won’t hurt the club in the strikeout category, he has average power, and he has the ability to hit .280-.290. Defensively, he’s solid with a plus arm.

Madison Bumgarner: Like quite a few other teams around Major League Baseball, the Giants club is fighting for a playoff spot and it appears that its best hope is the wild card. So the big question must be posed: Does it make sense to promote a 19-year-old pitching prospect if he’s dominating the competition in the minors and looks like a better option than one or two of the pitchers on your big-league rotation? It’s probably better to air on the side of caution, but this is the playoffs that we’re talking about… and Bumgarner currently has a career ERA of 1.50 in two minor league seasons. He’s also collectively allowed 176 hits in 228.1 innings with just 45 walks and 235 punch-outs. The left-handed pitcher is a rare find.

Bud Norris: The Astros club is also (surprisingly) in the playoff hunt but you have to be worried about how long the trio of Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz can hold it together. If at least one of the veteran arms falters, the organization needs to think about turning to top pitching prospect Norris. The 24-year-old right-hander has allowed just 98 hits in 114 innings of work this season with a walk rate of 3.95 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.53 K/9. Even if they don’t need him now, the club might be better off by getting him some MLB experience – even if it’s in the bullpen – just in case the club needs an emergency starter late in the year or in the playoffs.


The LaRoche Loot is Underwhelming

The Boston Red Sox acquired veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday for two minor league prospects: shortstop Argenis Diaz, and right-handed pitcher Hunter Strickland. Make no doubt about it, this was a salary dump by the Pittsburgh Pirates (and another shrewd move by a very smart organization… Boston).

Diaz, the better of the two prospects acquired by Pittsburgh, has the upside of… Jack Wilson. Now, if the Pirates can avoid paying him $6 or $7 million a season, than he might have some value. Truthfully, though, his value is tied solely to his glove, as he’s an above-average defensive player. With the stick, he’s probably going to produce Ramon Vazquez or Adam Everett numbers. Diaz doesn’t hit for power (.058 ISO), he doesn’t hit for average (.253 average in ’09), he doesn’t walk (7.0 BB%) and he doesn’t steal bases (His seven steals this year are a career high). Yes, he’s only 22 but there is really nothing to build on. Not one of those four categories I mentioned has seen an improvement in four pro seasons.

Strickland is a right-handed starter who doesn’t throw overly hard and relies on command and control to succeed. His fastball ranges 87-91 mph and he can add a couple more miles per hour when needed. He also has a slider and changeup. His numbers over the course of the past two seasons have been respectable. In 2009 in low-A, Stickland has allowed 85 hits in 83.1 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 1.40 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.51 K/9. Homers have been a problem with 11 leaving the yard (1.19 HR/9). He has a 3.35 ERA, but a 4.34 FIP.

The truth is that this trade probably won’t help you if your a fantasy baseball manager. Diaz’ bat is about a year away from the Majors, but he does provide some depth if (when) Pittsburgh accepts what Wilson’s true trade value is and he’s dealt in another salary dump. Strickland is a long way away from reaching his ceiling as a middle reliever, or maybe a No. 4 starter.

Where this move helps fantasy owners is in the playing time that this should free up for Steve Pearce in Pittsburgh. It’s about time that he receives a fair (and extended) shot at playing regularly in the Majors. I hope this trade is not a move to free up first base for Garrett Jones, who is significantly playing over his head right now (Hello, Kevin Maas). At the age 28, Jones’ ceiling is limited.


Minor Impacts: July 16

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Freddie Freeman: The Atlanta Braves organization recently promoted its two top offensive prospects from high-A to double-A. Freeman, a first baseman, had a breakout 2008 season, in what was his first full year in the minors after being selected in the second round of the 2007 draft out of a California high school. The prospect, who recently turned 20, hit .316/.378/.521 with 18 homers in 491 at-bats. This season, he began the year in high-A where he hit .302/.394/.447 with six homers in 255 at-bats. So far in double-A, Freeman is hitting .294 with three doubles in nine games. Although he does not walk a ton, the left-handed hitter does not strike out much (16.1 K%), compared to other power hitters. Defensively, he is above average and he has a strong arm as a former prep hurler who was committed to Cal State Fullerton as a two-way player.

Jason Heyward: This power-hitting outfielder was, like Freeman, a steal from the 2007 draft. The Braves nabbed the Georgia native with the 14th overall pick of the draft. An advanced hitter for a prep signee, Heyward has a career line of .312/.379/.491 in 733 at-bats – and he’s still just 19 years old. Earlier this season in high-A ball, Heyward hit .296/.369/.519 with 10 homers in 189 at-bats, while missing time with an injury. In a good pitcher’s park, the left-handed hitter posted a walk rate of 10 BB% and a strikeout rate of 15.9 K%. Since his promotion to double-A, Heyward is hitting .346/.438/.615 with three doubles and two triples in eight games. Neither Freeman nor Heyward should see the Majors this season, but they should both be kept in mind for 2010… They could both be up before the MLB All-Star break, depending on the big league club’s playoff hopes.

Danny Valencia: It’s been a rough offensive season for the Minnesota Twins. Incumbent third baseman Joe Crede is hitting .234/.297/.452, while back-up Brian Buscher is hitting .210/.350/.310. Help, though, may be on the way. Valencia does not have the same pedigree that other top prospects have, as a former 19th round selection out of the University of Miami. However, he’s clawed his way to the top and is on the cusp of giving some offensive aid to the Twins’ big league club. In four seasons, Valencia has a triple-slash line of .305/.363/.489. He began the 2009 season in double-A, where he hit .284/.373/.482 with seven homers in 218 at-bats. Recently promoted to triple-A, Valencia is currently hitting .360/.372/.573 with three homers and seven doubles in 19 games. His 2.6% walk rate at triple-A suggests he has a little work to do with his approach. However, the right-handed hitter is almost big-league ready and has the potential to be an average Major League third baseman.

Terry Evans: If you think Valencia is a long-shot made good, meet Evans. This Angels outfield prospect was selected out of a small junior college in the 47th round in the 2002 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals organization. He had four nondescript years in the minors before breaking out offensively in 2006. The next season, Evans was traded to the Angels organization and he made his MLB debut (eight games). Outfield depth in the system kept him at triple-A in 2008 and an injury cost him much of the season. Back at full strength in 2009, Evans is putting on a show with a line of .287/.333/.520 in 348 at-bats. He also has 17 homers and 20 steals in 23 attempts. Although he’s already 27, Evans is showing 30-30 ability at the triple-A level. His poor plate rates will probably limit his ceiling in the Majors, but this late bloomer has some big-league potential, even if only as a part-time player.

Esmil Rogers: For long-time fans, it is still hard to wrap one’s mind around the fact that Colorado could produce effective Major League pitchers. But in this new era, talented pitchers can actually survive in the Rockies. Rogers, 23, has been slowly navigating the Colorado minor league system since coming over to North America in 2006. He’s really taken his game to another level this season, thanks to improved command and control of his solid repertoire: low-to-mid-90s fastball, good curveball and improving changeup. At double-A, Rogers allowed 87 hits in 94.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 1.81 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.92 K/9. The right-hander was recently promoted to triple-A, where he’s made just one start (6 IP, 3 R).

Hector Rondon: Another quietly-blooming Latin prospect, Rondon’s name is slowly gaining popularity among prospect watchers. The right-handed hurler broke out in a big way in 2008 and has continued to improve in 2009. He began this season in double-A where he allowed 60 hits in 72 innings of work. The 21-year-old pitcher also posted a walk rate of 2.00 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.13 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Rondon has made just one start and he did not allow a hit over six innings, while walking two and striking out eight. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 94-95 mph, a plus changeup, and a developing slider. He has the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter.


Minor Impacts: July 9

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, and Daniel Bard.

Alex Avila: The Detroit Tigers organization does not have a very deep minor-league system so it’s an exciting day when a prospect exceeds expectation. That is exactly what Avila has done since signing as a 2008 fifth round draft pick out of the University of Alabama. The catcher has built off of a strong junior year in college to become an above-average offensive catcher. After hitting .305 in his debut season, Avila has continued to bat .300 in 2009, while also adding more power with 21 doubles and eight homers in 247 at-bats. He’s striking out a bit (23.5 K%) but he’s also showing good patience (13.9 BB%). Add in that Avila is a left-handed batter and you have the heavy side of a platoon with either Gerald Laird or Dusty Ryan (in the very near future).

Lance Zawadzki: The San Diego Padres organization had eight picks before the third round of the 2007 draft so it looked for some ways to save money in later rounds. Shortstop Zawadzki was nabbed in the fourth round as a senior at a small NAIA college (Having transferred away from San Diego State after a terrible junior year). The infielder was one of those players who always had a ton of potential but just could not put everything together – in part due to injuries. Zawadzki’s first full pro season in 2008 was modest but he’s broken out in a big way in 2009. He hit .276/.360/.552 with 10 homers in 145 at-bats in high-A ball. The 24-year-old prospect was then promoted to double-A where he’s hitting .346/.428/.512 with three homers in 127 at-bats. Zawadzki also stole 28 bases in 31 attempts in 2008, so he has some speed. Given the lack of middle infield options on the big league club, this under-the-radar prospect could see time in San Diego before the year is out.

Kila Ka’aihue: It’s safe to say that the love that the Kansas City Royals organization received over the winter for its “shrewd moves” is over. The move that received the most scrutiny was probably the acquisition of one-dimensional hitter Mike Jacobs. One of the most puzzling parts of the decision to add Jacobs was that the club already had a breakout, MLB-ready first baseman in Ka’aihue, who batted .315 with 37 homers (and excellent on-base skills) between double-A and triple-A in 2008. His batting average is down this year to .265, but he still has more walks than strikeouts (1.03 BB/K) and he’s hitting for more power than Jacobs (ISO: .228 vs .186). Ka’aihue would probably be of much more value to the big league club right now, but the organization would be admitting it made a huge mistake with the Jacobs acquisition.

Brian Matusz: We looked at Matusz earlier this season in this column and the picture has only gotten brighter for the left-handed pitching prospect. The bad news for the former No. 1 pick, though, is that the Baltimore Orioles organization is absolutely stacked with upper-level pitching talent. Regardless, the big league club is not going to be able to ignore him for long. After posting a 2.11 ERA (2.91 FIP) in 11 high-A starts, Matusz has posted a 0.34 ERA (1.57 FIP) in four double-A starts. He’s allowed just 11 hits and six walks in 26.1 innings of work. The southpaw has also struck out 32 batters and has yet to allow a home run in double-A. The 22-year-old hurler has more than justified his fourth-overall selection in the 2008 draft.

Zach Braddock: One of the hardest things to do with talented prospects is to be patient. The Milwaukee Brewers organization has been rewarded for its patience with Braddock, a 2005 18th round selection out of community college. The southpaw was inconsistent in his first three pro seasons, while showing flashes of brilliance. Moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen in 2009, he’s taken off and been able to stay healthy. Braddock posted a 1.09 ERA (1.74 FIP) in 24.2 innings of work in high-A, while posting a walk rate of just 1.46 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 14.59 K/9. He’s continued to deal after a promotion to double-A. In 9.2 innings, Braddock has allowed nine hits and three walks, while striking out 13 batters. His repertoire includes an above-average fastball that touches 93-94 mph out of the pen, as well as a good slider and an occasional changeup.

Sam Demel: A move to the bullpen while at Texas Christian University really made Demel’s career. He’s taken off as a reliever in the A’s organization after signing as a third-round pick from the 2007 draft. The 23-year-old right-hander struck out 90 batters in 67 high-A innings in 2008. He then posted a 0.61 ERA with a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9 in 29.1 double-A innings in 2009. Demel has since been promoted to triple-A, where he has yet to allow a run in four appearances. He’s given up three hits (but four walks) and struck out eight in 5.2 innings. With a little more control, Demel could be a future late-game reliever for the A’s organization.


Minor Impacts: July 2

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Zach Stewart: A 2008 third-round pick out of Texas Tech, Stewart has had no problems dominating hitters in professional baseball. His up-and-down college career included stints in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. His pro career has been no different; Stewart spent his debut season in the ‘pen before moving to the rotation in 2009. He made seven starts in both high-A and double-A before moving back to the bullpen with a recent promotion to triple-A. That moves pretty much signifies that the Cincinnati organization views Stewart, 22, as a prospect that can help the club in the not-too-distant future. In double-A, the right-hander allowed just 29 hits in 37 innings of work while posting rates of 2.43 BB/9 and 7.54 K/9. He also does a nice job of keeping balls-in-play on the ground.

Cody Satterwhite: Detroit loves big-time arms, and Satterwhite is yet another college product that fits the bill. A 2008 second round draft pick out of Mississippi, the right-hander’s results have never matched up to his stuff (He was heavily scouted coming out of high school too, with the same knock against him). Satterwhite has been moved aggressively through the system by the Tigers, not unlike Ryan Perry. Satterwhite, 22, has posted a 9.8 K/9 strikeout rate to this point in his career, but he’s also been too hittable (9.0 H/9), while also allowing too many base runners via the walk (5.4 BB/9). With Detroit’s pitching depth still pretty weak – and with the bullpen struggling and unproven – Satterwhite may get a taste of the big leagues before he’s ready.

Phillippe Aumont: Staying with the theme of rushing pitchers, you can’t write on the topic without mentioning the No. 1 club for rushing prospects: The Seattle Mariners. Aumont was a highly-regarded prep pitcher when he was drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft. Everyone knew he had great stuff but he was extremely raw as a pitcher after growing up in Quebec, Canada. Despite his rough edges, Aumont has had a lot of success in pro ball, including at the extreme hitter’s domain known as High Desert (high-A). Pitching in the offense-oriented California League earlier this season, Aumont posted a 3.24 ERA (3.53 FIP) and allowed just 24 hits in 33.1 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 3.24 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. Now in double-A, he’s continued to pitch well, leading to the possibility that he could help Seattle by the end of 2009 – or certainly early on in 2010.

Henry Rodriguez: Rodriguez deserves to be lumped in with the pitchers above because he’s a hard-throwing reliever, but he hasn’t flown through the minors like the others. In fact, he’s been teasing the A’s with his potential since Stewart and Satterwhite were freshmen in college. Rodriguez appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season with a dominating performance in high-A ball in 2008, but the wheels fell off with a promotion to double-A. Rodriguez is looking better in triple-A this season, although he’s thrown just 15.2 innings (with a strikeout rate of 14.36 K/9). Control continues to be his biggest issue (5.17 BB/9) and he’s still pretty much a one-pitch pitcher with a fastball that can touch 100 mph.

Bryan Petersen: In the pre-season, I highlighted Petersen as one of my favorite sleeper prospects because of his intriguing combination of power and speed. The outfielder got off to a bit of a slow start in 2009 at the double-A level, but he’s picked things up since the beginning of June and is hitting .395 in his last 10 games. Petersen is still not hitting for power (.085 ISO) but his average is up to .288 and he’s got his strikeout rate under control (19.8 K%). He could probably hit right-handed MLB pitchers right now (.309 average) but the left-handed hitter still struggles against southpaws (.211 in 57 at-bats). Petersen stands to benefit from Florida’s lack of minor-league outfield depth. He certainly has more upside than a player like Alejandro De Aza.

Gaby Sanchez: Staying with the Florida theme, you have to figure the club is going to realize the error of its ways with playing Emilio Bonifacio everyday at third base. With the club inches from first place in the National League East, the team could use some consistent offense from the position and Bonifacio has proven that he is not the player to provide it. Sanchez, a converted first baseman, has been playing third base at triple-A. He’s not going to win any gold gloves out there, but his defense is no worse than Bonifacio’s and his bat has much more potential. Sanchez is currently hitting .298/.366/.462 with seven homers in 171 at-bats.


Second-Half Spark Plugs

Well, it’s the last day of June. There are still three more months of baseball to play before the post-season begins, but a few teams can all but pack it in. Today, we’re going to take a look at the five teams that have the misfortune of being the furthest down in the standings. I am going to highlight one minor league player for each club that could (should) come up in the second half of the season and offer a spark for fantasy baseball managers in dire need of some help.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (18.5 games back):
Arizona’s No. 5 pitchers have been downright awful this season and No. 5 starter Jon Garland has not been much better. If it eats a little salary, the club might be able to spin 2008/09 free agent signee Garland (who’s on a one-year deal) to a playoff contender before the trading deadline. Right-handed pitcher Cesar Valdez is having a nice season in triple-A and is the top option to receive a look in the second half of the year. He has modest fastball velocity, but Valdez possesses a plus changeup, a pretty good splitter and knows how to change speeds. So far this season in triple-A, he has allowed 72 hits in 76 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of just 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.16 K/9. He’s not flashy, but Valdez should be a more-than-adequate No. 4 starter for an organization that lacks premium prospects at the upper levels of the farm system.

The Washington Nationals (17.5 games back):
We’ve already seen quite a few young pitchers perform for the Nationals this season and the organization is still recovering (especially in the upper minors) from years of MLB control, which hampered draft budgets. With starting pitchers like Craig Stammen and Ross Detwiler having modest-at-best results, the club could still afford to take a look at a couple triple-A hurlers who have yet to receive a taste of the Majors this season: Collin Balester and J.D. Martin. I won’t get into Martin’s case too heavily, since Dave took a look at the former Cleveland prospect the other day over on the FanGraphs side of the site and made a pretty convincing argument for his promotion. Balester, on the other hand, made 15 starts for the 2008 Nationals and showed that he still had work to do after allowing 92 hits in 80 innings and posting an ERA of 5.51 (5.11 FIP). This season in triple-A, he’s still been a little too hittable with 89 hits allowed in 81.1 innings, but he’s trimmed his home run problem from a rate of 1.60 to 0.33 HR/9. Balester has also trimmed his 2008 triple-A FIP of 4.92 down to 3.59 this season.

The San Diego Padres (15 games back):
PETCO Park and Mat Latos just might be a match made in heaven. The 21-year-old right-hander has been absolutely dominating in the minors this season – originally in high-A ball and now in double-A. In 11 combined appearances, the hurler has a 1.28 ERA and has allowed just 37 hits in 63.1 innings of work. At double-A, he has a walk rate of 2.13 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.00 K/9. His FIP is 1.99. Latos, though, is a fly ball pitcher (despite allowing just one homer this season). It helps that he has a repertoire that includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph, a wicked slider and a developing changeup. With help from PETCO’s larger-than-average dimensions, he could be a very dominating pitcher in short order.

The Baltimore Orioles (13 games back):
The organization has already debuted the most highly-anticipated rookie of 2009 in catcher Matt Wieters. It also has outfielder Nolan Reimold making a legitimate charge at the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. With rookie starters Brad Bergesen and Koji Uehara also pitching well, you might think the high-level prospect cupboard would be bare, but it’s not. The triple-A rotation contains three promising rookie pitchers in Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Troy Patton. Tillman, though, is probably the closest to being MLB-ready. The right-hander, unlike the other two hurlers, has spent the entire season in triple-A and he has posted a 2.97 ERA (2.80 FIP). Tillman has allowed 62 hits in 72.2 innings of work and he’s posted rates of 2.60 BB/9 and 9.29 K/9. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, plus curveball and good changeup.

The Cleveland Indians (12 games back):
You’ve already seen him once and he struggled a bit in his first taste of MLB action, but it’s hard to keep a good prospect down. Left-fielder Matt LaPorta hit just .190/.286/.286 in his first 13 MLB games, but he’s gone back down to the minors and worked hard. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from more than 20% in his career down to 16.7%. The former college catcher has also continued to hit above .300 while also hitting the ball with authority (.219 ISO, 22.7 LD%). Sooner or later, the club is going to tire of Ben Francisco’s (lack of) hitting: .225/.303/.356 in 236 at-bats.