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Arizona Fall League Update

Let’s have a look around the Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ’09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you’ve probably already heard, Strasburg (The No. 1 overall pick in June’s amateur draft) won his first official pro appearance last week. The right-hander pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and one walk. He struck out two batters but, more importantly, he recorded all eight of his in-play outs via the ground ball. A pitcher with a dominating repertoire and a significant ground-ball rate will have a lot of success. ETA: Mid-2010

Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Houston
The 23-year-old reliever rose to double-A in his first pro season. Lo, a Taiwan native, is leading the AFL in strikeouts with six in four innings of work spread over two outings. He is also inducing a solid number of ground balls. Lo has a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a splitter, slider and changeup. He should be on your watch list and a sleeper candidate for drafting in keeper leagues. He has the potential to be a future closer or set-up man. ETA: Mid-2010

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
Stanton is swinging a hot bat despite ending the year with modest contact rates in double-A. The outfielder is currently hitting .533 (tied for third in the league) through four games. He has eight hits in 15 at-bats, including a homer. He’s struck out six times and has stolen three bases in as many attempts. If Stanton can improve his base running to the point where he can provide 10-15 steals a season, it will increase his fantasy value. ETA: Mid-2011

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati
Heisey just won’t stop improving. The Cincinnati Reds’ outfield prospect is tied with Stanton in batting average through 15 at-bats. He also has four extra base hits, two walks and a stolen base. Heisey could join fellow youngsters Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce in the Reds 2010 opening day outfield. ETA: Early 2010

Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle
The second-overall pick in the ’09 draft, like Strasburg, is making his pro debut in the AFL. Ackley has five hits in 10 at-bats (.500) with one double. He has also stolen a base and has yet to strike out. ETA: Early 2011

Struggling: Some of the big names that are scuffling early on, include: Chris Parmelee (.000 in 10 at-bats), Brandon Allen (.118), Matt Dominguez (.154), Jason Castro (.167), Yonder Alonso (.167) and Buster Posey (.167).


The Good and The Bad of ’09: New York (AL)

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the New York Yankees squad that finished first in the American League East division with a record of 103-59. The perennial powerhouse is currently facing the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Championship Series. As a team, the Yankees posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 12.82, which was first overall in the Major Leagues. The last team to come close to posting a similar WPA for the year was the ’05 Red Sox (12.21).

The Good: Robinson Cano, 2B
Second baseman Aaron Hill got a lot of attention in Toronto for his offensive season, but Cano’s wasn’t too shabby, either. Cano reached the 200-hit and plateau for the first time in his career, while hitting .320/.352/.520 with 25 homers. The soon-to-be 27-year-old infielder also hit 48 doubles, which suggests their is more power to come. Although his walk rate remains low at 4.5 BB%, Cano reduced his strikeout rate for the third straight year, from 13.8 to 10.9 to 9.9%. Overall, he was third in the Majors in wOBA (.370) amongst second basemen, behind Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist (.408) and Philadelphia’s Chase Utley (.402).

It seems clear that Cano’s hiccup in ’08 was more fluke than anything else. He remains an elite fantasy option at second base. Cano topped 100 runs for the first time in his career, and had 85 RBI – a total that could increase as he moves into a run-producing role now that he’s matured as a hitter. It’s also encouraging that he feasted on just about everything thrown at him save for the cutter, which gave him significant trouble (-4.91 wCT/C). Cano could top 30 homers as he enters his prime in 2010.

The Bad: Joba Chamberlain, RHP
There isn’t much that goes wrong on a team that compiles such an impressive WPA or 100+ win season. However, Chamberlain’s year can be viewed as a disappointment, as the youngster failed to improve and/or live up to lofty expectations. The right-hander did not have a terrible season but his 4.82 FIP and walk rate of 4.35 BB/9 both headed in the wrong direction. He struggled with his fastball in 2009. It went from a rating of 0.79 wFB/C in ’08 to -1.26 in ’09. His slider was still effective at 1.29 wSL/C. His lack of a consistent third pitch (curve or changeup) hurt him while pitching out of the rotation.

The good news is that Chamberlain is still a young pitcher and this was his first full season in the starting rotation, so ups-and-downs should have been expected. Fantasy owners can look at this as an opportunity to buy low on Chamberlain, who still has good stuff and youth is on his side. He also plays for a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to pile up wins. The slider will result in a good number of strikeouts if he can regain control of the heater – making it less likely that hitters will be able to lay off the breaking ball.


The Good and The Bad of ’09: Boston

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Boston Red Sox club that finished second overall in the American League East division with a record of 95-67. The organization claimed the Wild Card title but was eliminated in the American League Division Series. As a team, the Red Sox posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 4.01, seventh overall in the Majors and third in the AL.

The Good: Jon Lester, LHP
A lot of people felt that Lester peaked in his first full season in the Majors in 2008. A lot of people were wrong. The lefty, at the age of 25, became one of the top hurlers in baseball. He allowed 186 hits in 203.1 innings while striking out 225 batters (9.96 K/9). Lester also posted a nice walk rate at 2.83 BB/9. His fastball velocity increased 1.5 mph over 2008 but it took a step back value wise from 0.82 to 0.25 wFB/C. However, each one of his secondary pitches (cutter, curve, change) improved. Lester was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in 2009, up from 5.1 in 2008.

What’s important for fantasy owners to acknowledge is that he’s proven to be durable – especially considering that he’s coming back from cancer. All his statistics also point to a legitimate improvement in numerous areas, which limits the likelihood of a fluke season. Lester finished fifth in the Majors in strikeouts and he plays on a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to be awarded wins.

The Bad: Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
Matsuzaka looked like a stud after his first MLB campaign in 2007; He then won 18 games with just three losses and he posted a strikeout rate of 8.27 K/9 in his sophomore year. There were some red flags, though, such as the walk rate of 5.05 BB/9 and the significant ERA/FIP gap. Even so, Matsuzaka was worth 3.3 wins above replacement in ’08 and fans expected more in ’09. No one expected him to be worth just half a win above replacement, and no one expected Matsuzaka to make just 12 starts. Unfortunately, he was also extremely homer prone (1.52 HR/9), he allowed a lot of line drives (23%) and all of his pitches decreased in effectiveness.

Matsuzaka will enter the 2010 season with a wait-and-see label. The wild-card has a chance to be a dominating pitcher again if he can harness the command of his fastball and slider. His health will also play a huge part in his potential success. At just 29 years of age, Matsuzaka has the potential to provide innings, strikeouts and wins. You will have to accept a certain number of walks and homers, though.


The Good and The Bad of ’09: Baltimore

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles club that finished fifth overall in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -9.93, third worst in the Majors.

The Good: Adam Jones, CF
The Baltimore organization has one of the best young outfields in all of baseball with the emergence of Jones and Nolan Reimold in 2009. Further growth from Felix Pie could make things even more interesting as the group joins Nick Markakis. Jones’ WAR actually dropped in ’09 from 2.2 to 1.9 but that was due to a regression in the field. Offensively, with better patience at the plate, Jones’ line improved to .277/.335/.457 with an ISO of .180. He should see even more doubles and homers as he increases his fly-ball rate from 28.1%. What this means for 2010 is that Jones has a very good chance of becoming a 20 HR/15 SB player who will also post a respectable batting average and score some runs.

The Bad: The Pitching Staff
It’s not really fair to single out any one pitcher; most of the hurlers on the staff were disappointing. Collectively, Baltimore pitchers allowed the most hits in the American League, while posting the worst FIP and highest home-run rate in the Majors. Young pitchers Chris Tillman (2.08 HR/9) and David Hernandez (2.40) struggled mightily with the long ball. They also posted FIPs above 6.00. Veteran hurler Jeremy Guthrie posted a homer rate of 1.54 HR/9. Former closer Chris Ray made his return from Tommy John surgery but he posted a walk rate of 4.78 BB/9 and posted a 2.01 WHIP. Japanese import Koji Uehara looked good early but then he got hurt (torn flexor tendon). He’ll enter 2010 at the age of 35.

The good news is that Tillman and Hernandez both experienced common growing pains for young pitchers. Tillman, in particular, looks like a future stud; he just needs better command. Brian Matusz is another promising hurler who made eight starts and will enter 2010 as an early favorite for Rookie of the Year in the American League (Tillman’s eligibility has expired). Both should be keeper-league targets. Neither Ray nor Uehara enter ’10 as fantasy favorites, although Uehara has some value if he’s healthy.


Seeing Red at the Hot Corner for 2010

The third base position in Cincinnati has been a busy place in 2009. Edwin Encarnacion began the year as the club’s starter before injuries and a subsequent trade to Toronto ended his storyline. Other players such as Adam Rosales, Drew Sutton, and Paul Janish have also spent time there, although the latter’s batting average of .217 tops the trio.

The trade of Encarnacion was made to bring in veteran Scott Rolen, a good defensive player who was having a solid offensive season with Toronto. Since coming back to the National League, Rolen has hit just .263/.342/.364 in 114 at-bats, and he was slowed with post-concussion symptoms after a beaning in one of his first games with the Reds.

Rolen is signed to a hefty contract for 2010 – and the Reds also paid a large price in young arms for him – so he’ll be the everyday guy next year, if healthy. That leaves the status of two upper-level third base prospects in limbo. Both Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco are near-MLB-ready. In fact, Francisco was called up to the Majors in September.

Both players began the year in double-A. Francisco spent the majority of time at the hot corner. He hit .281/.317/.501 with 22 homers in 437 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then promoted to triple-A where he hit .359/.384/.598 with another five homers in 92 at-bats. That earned him his first big-league shot. On the downside of Francisco’s numbers, the 22-year-old prospect walked just 4.3% of the time in 2009, which sadly is a career high for him. A rate like that (along with a K rate of 22%) will not translate into much success in the Majors, regardless of how well he’s done in the minors. Francisco’s glove at third base also begs for the DH role in the National League.

Frazier moved to the outfield to accommodate Francisco in double-A in ’09. He’s also seen time at second base. His best position, though, remains third base. The 23-year-old prospect hit .290/.350/.481 with 40 doubles in 451 at-bats in double-A. A late-season promotion to triple-A resulted in a line of .302/.362/.476 with another five doubles in 63 at-bats. Overall, he also slugged 16 homes. His walk rate of 8.6% is not great, but it’s double what Francisco had to offer. Frazier’s strikeout rate was also about 10% lower than his teammate’s.

Neither player will see much time at the hot corner in Cincinnati in 2010, barring an injury to Rolen. Both players are still young, though, and someone will likely have to take over in 2011. The safer bet for that job would be Frazier as he is a better overall hitter and fielder. Francisco potentially has a higher upside but the walk rate is a huge concern, as the only big leaguers with a similar walk rate and strikeout rate are Clint Barmes of the Rockies and Aaron Rowand of the Giants.

Frazier could be a valuable player for the Reds, as well as fantasy managers, in 2010. He has a solid approach that leads to excellent gap power (that could easily turn into HR power with more experience) and he has the potential to hit for a solid average. His defensive versatility would also make him a flexible resource at numerous positions (2B, 3B, OF). Francisco’s three straight 20+ homer seasons may be more enticing, but Frazier remains the safer bet.


Minor Impacts: September 3

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

With the MLB rosters expanding from the standard 25 men to as many as 40 players, we’re switching things up this week and taking a look at some of the more interesting prospects making their MLB debuts.

Buster Posey: There was some talk that San Francisco would delay Posey’s promotion to the Majors in an effort to save some money, but the organization did the right thing and brought him up for a taste of the Majors. Posey has proven that his bat and glove are MLB ready. In a perfect world (keeping in mind their GM loves veterans), Posey would spend 2010 seeing 60-70% of the playing time behind the dish with San Francisco. A veteran catcher – Bengie Molina if he’s up to the decreased role – would then see the remainder of the playing time while serving as a mentor to the rookie backstop. There isn’t much that Posey cannot do with the bat; he hits for power (.200 ISO), for average (.310 at AAA) and takes his fair share of walks (11.9% in AAA). Overall, the 22-year-old prospect hit .325/.416/.531 in 422 at-bats at high-A and triple-A.

Tyler Flowers: Flowers cannot match Posey’s overall game but this White Sox prospect could make veteran A.J. Pierzynski expendable after the 2010 season – if not before. Flowers might struggle to hit for a high average because he has trouble making contact sometimes (30.5 K%), but he posted a .246 ISO in 248 double-A at-bats before moving up to triple-A. Flowers, an average backstop, also takes a ton of walks, having posted a 19.2% walk rate in 2008 and a rate of 18.7% in double-A in ’09. Flowers has been a lefty killer in his minor-league career and hit .358 against them this year with an OPS of 1.119.

Wade Davis: With the trade of Scott Kazmir, the Rays acquired a few interesting young names, while also opening up a rotation spot for either Andy Sonnanstine or Davis. The right-handed rookie has been a top prospect in the system for a few years now but his numbers were just good in triple-A… as opposed to great. Now 24, Davis allowed 139 hits in 158.2 innings of work at triple-A in 2009, while posting a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.86 K/9. He is the early favorite to replace Kazmir in the 2010 starting rotation, although Sonnanstine has the experience edge.

Michael Brantley: Obtained as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal last year, this outfielder is not a slam-dunk star but he has more than enough talent to be a valuable contributor to the Indians and your fantasy squad. Brantley understands his game very well for a 22 year old. The left-handed hitter had a bit of a down year in triple-A this season but he still walked more than he struck out (1.23 BB/K) and he posted an 11.4 BB%. He stole a career high 43 bases in 48 attempts but hit just .267 (.288 BABIP). At worst, he should be a very valuable fourth outfielder and pinch runner.

Josh Thole: Another catcher, Thole was converted from first base to catcher and has really improved his value to the point where he is one of the brighter up-and-coming backstop prospects. A left-handed hitter, Thole has hit .300+ in each of the past two seasons, including .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats in double-A this year. He’ll need to keep that average up because he has almost no power to speak of, as witnessed by his .094 ISO.

Neil Walker: Walker’s star has diminished significantly from the days when he was the top prospect in the Pirates system. He’s struggled in triple-A for two straight seasons and is currently sandwiched in between Andy LaRoche and Pedro Alvarez. Walker could end up as a AAAA slugger, or a bench player, which is a far cry from the days that the Pittsburgh native was the club’s No. 1 draft pick out of high school. This year he hit just .266/.312/.484 with 14 homers in 353 at-bats. The .218 ISO is nice, but the 6.6% walk rate is not.


Minor Impacts: August 27

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Chris Carter: Oakland’s Chris Carter is an interesting prospect. A look at his numbers show massive potential with a double-A line of .334/.433/.567 in 485 at-bats. He had 40 doubles and 23 homers, as well as 106 runs driven in – the second time he’s topped 100 in as many years. Carter also maintains a solid walk rate (14.3 BB% in ’09) and he trimmed his strikeout rate by six percent over last year (30.8 to 24.3 K%). The 22-year-old first baseman also stole 13 bases in 18 attempts and recently earned a late-season promotion to triple-A. On the downside, Carter had a .404 BABIP in double-A, which is highly unsustainable. As well, scouts have questions about how well his swing will work in the Majors and he has a lot of trouble hitting breaking balls. Carter also does not have a defensive home. Despite a strong arm, he is average at best at first base due to poor hands. He’s also been tried at third base and right field, with little success. Carter is basically a designated hitter who should hit a bunch of homers and take his fair share of walks while hitting .260-.280 and piling up the Ks in the Majors.

David Lough: It’s been another depressing year in KCville. Top hitting prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have underwhelmed. However, the Royals have seen a few players step forward, such as Jeff Bianchi, Jordan Parraz, and Lough. An 11th-round selection out of tiny Mercyhurst College in 2007, Lough has really played well this year after a so-so first full season in pro ball in 2008. Beginning 2009 in high-A, the left-handed hitter posted a line of .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. Since moving up to double-A, Lough has continued to hit well with a line of .332/.371/.537 in 190 at-bats. The Ohio native has enough speed to steal 15-20 bases and gap power that could produce 10-15 homers. He does a nice job making contact and has the chance to be a .300 hitter in the Majors. Unfortunately, he does not walk nearly enough (5 BB% in 2009) but he keeps the strikeouts to a respectable level (14 K% in ’09). With a .119 average versus left-handers in double-A, Lough has a lot of work to do if he wants to avoid being platooned at the MLB level.

Chris Pettit: This Angels prospect has shown solid skills over the past few seasons but he just can’t stay healthy. Signed as a college senior out of Loyal Marymount University, Pettit has made the most of his solid-average abilities and he now projects to be a solid fourth outfielder and occasional starter. The right-handed hitter is a lefty killer with a line of .400/.509/.670 against them in 100 at-bats in 2009 at triple-A. Overall, Pettit has a line of .325/.383/.488 with 26 doubles and 16 steals in 326 at-bats. He does a nice job of keeping the strikeouts at bay with a rate of 15.4 K%, but his walk rates have decreased as he’s moved up the ladder (7.3 BB% in ’09). Defensively, Pettit can play all three outfield positions.

Jaime Garcia: The Cardinals organization has been absolutely snake-bitten when it comes to developing pitching prospects over the past 10 years. Southpaw Garcia was on the cusp of securing a big-league role in 2008 when he blew out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. Control was never a huge strength of Garcia’s, but it’s looked pretty good in seven post-surgery appearances – especially considering that command and control usually suffer afterward. Still just 23, the Mexico native has plenty of time to re-firm-up his plus breaking ball. He could find himself back in the Majors by mid-2010 with the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter for St. Louis.

Jeremy Hellickson: This right-hander has officially passed both Jacob McGee and Wade Davis as the top pitching prospect in the Rays system. It took a little while for scouts to warm up to Hellickson because he’s not as flashy as the other two pitching prospects but he is a better all-around pitcher and far more consistent. The 22-year-old hurler began the year in double-A and allowed 41 hits in 56.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.22 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.85 K/9. Since a promotion to triple-A, he’s allowed 24 hits in 35.1 innings. He also has a 3.06 BB/9 walk rate and a 9.93 K/9 strikeout rate. Hellickson has a low-90s fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a curveball and changeup. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. Pitching is still a strength in the organization with Matthew Moore, Nick Barnese, and Kyle Lobstein also blazing through the system.

Trystan Magnuson: Magnuson was a bit of a surprise supplemental first round draft pick in the 2007 draft, as a fifth-year senior at the University of Louisville. With multiple picks in the first few rounds, though, the Jays organization needed to save some money and it felt Magnuson would move quickly through the system. Shifted to the starting rotation in 2008 at low-A, the right-hander struggled mightily. Moved back to the ‘pen in 2009, Magnuson pitched pretty well in high-A and received a late-season promotion to double-A, which is where he should begin the 2010 season. At the rate that the Jays organization goes through pitchers, he should get a MLB shot next year if he continues to improve. Magnuson, 24, has a fastball that can touch 94 mph out of the bullpen, as well as a good (but inconsistent) slider. He also gets his fair share of worm-burning outs, and Toronto loves its ground-ball pitchers.

Robbie Weinhardt: Toronto loves ground-ball pitchers and Detroit loves its flame-throwing relievers. The organization grabbed five college relievers in the first 10 rounds of the 2008 draft with the hopes that they would provide quick relief in a system that significantly lacked pitching depth. Ryan Perry (1st round) has established himself in the Majors, while Brett Jacobson (fourth round) was used to acquire Aubrey Huff in a recent trade with Baltimore. Weinhardt, the fifth reliever taken by the Tigers (10th round), has been perhaps the second most impressive reliever taken by the Tigers in the ’08 draft. Beginning 2009 in high-A, he allowed 24 hits in 31.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9. Moved up to double-A, the right-hander has allowed 20 hits in 25 innings of work, while allowing a walk rate of 3.96 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.36 K/9. Weinhardt has a low-90s fastball that can touch 94 mph, as well as a changeup and slider. He looks like a future set-up man.


Minor Impacts: August 20

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Brian Bogusevic: Pitcher-to-hitter conversions have been pretty trending over the past few seasons and Bogusevic’s switch received a lot of attention last year. Things have quieted down in that regard in 2009, but the talented outfielder just keeps plugging along for Houston in triple-A. He currently has a line of .278/.354/.374, which is extremely encouraging considering that this is his first full season as a hitter. The biggest disappointment to this point has been his lack of power, something that was a strength of his in college. Currently, his ISO is just .098. However, he is hitting for a decent average, he’s stolen 18 bases in 21 tries and he’s taken his fair share of walks (10.2 BB%). Bogusevic, a left-handed hitter, does struggle against southpaws with an OPS of just .650. The 25-year-old has the potential to be a solid regular center fielder, but he probably won’t be a star.

Josh Bell: Entering the 2009 season, the Baltimore Orioles organization had a problem. Incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora was getting older and his numbers were beginning to slip. As the season now nears its end, nothing has changed in that regard. However, the club now has a replacement, something that was sorely lacking at the beginning of the season. Bell, 22, has responded to the trade by hitting .364/.442/.682 in 44 double-A at-bats with Baltimore. Overall, he’s hitting .304/.393/.519 with 15 homers and 32 doubles in 378 at-bats. Bell is also showing a solid approach at the plate with respectable strikeout and walk rates.

Michael Taylor: The Philadelphia organization is probably pretty happy with the way the trade deadline turned out. The club received veteran Cliff Lee in a trade and he’s been lights-out in the National League. The club also managed to hang on to most – if not all – its top prospects. One of those prospects – Taylor – has shown the potential to be an impact player at the MLB level once a spot opens up for him in the outfield. After hitting .333/.408/.569 in 318 double-A at-bats, Taylor moved up to triple-A where he is hitting .282/.359/.491 in 110 at-bats. Overall, he has 20 homers and 21 steals, as well as a strikeout rate below 20 K%, which is excellent for a hitter with 20-25 home run potential.

Lucas May: With some questions surrounding Russell Martin (especially concerning his lack of power), the incumbent No. 1 catcher in Los Angeles, the Dodgers organization may need to look for a replacement sooner rather than later. Having basically given catching prospect Carlos Santana away to the Indians (a terrible decision, even at the time), the club must hope that May can continue to build off of his 2009 season – a year in which the 24-year-old catcher repeated double-A with respectable results. The right-handed hitter is currently batting .281/.374/.427 with six homers in 199 at-bats. May was converted to catcher in 2007 and he’s still a little rough around the edges defensively, but he’s the best in-house option that the club has at double-A or triple-A.

Danny Dorn: Cincinnati outfield prospects like Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey get a lot of ink, but Dorn has quietly put together a respectable pro career. A former 32nd-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2006 as a senior, the left-handed hitter slugged 20 or more home runs in both 2007 and 2008. His power numbers have been muted a bit in triple-A Louisville this season (His ISO is still .184), but Dorn still has the potential to provide some pop off of a big-league bench. A poor defensive player, Dorn could also be a valuable platoon player in the American League as a designated hitter. He has hit just .197/.239/.394 against southpaws in his career, but he has a line of .293/.358/.475 against right-handers.

Neil Walker: It’s hard to believe that Walker was once the pride of Pittsburgh. A native of Pennsylvania, the former catcher was drafted with the club’s first-round pick in 2004 out of an area high school. Things really began to go downhill for Walker when he was unable to stick at catcher and moved to third base, where he provides below-average offense for the position. He’s been unable to maintain a respectable average or show the patience at the plate necessary to succeed in triple-A, let alone the Majors. Currently, he’s hitting .256/.306/.472 with 12 homers in 309 at-bats. Still only 23, a change of scenery may be the best thing for this former top prospect.

Jose Vallejo: Rumored to be headed to Houston as part of the loot in the Pudge Rodriguez trade, this Rangers second base prospect is having an off season. After hitting .292 with 11 homers and 42 steals in 2008, Vallejo has slumped to .245/.290/.316 with just two homers and 10 stolen bases in 392 at-bats split between double-A and triple-A. Fortunately, he’s still just 22 years old and is a solid buy-low risk, especially for an organization that is attempting to rebuild its farm system from virtually nothing.


Minor Impacts: Aug. 13

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Wes Hodges: A former second round pick out of Georgia Tech, Hodges is knocking on the door for a shot at the third base job in Cleveland. He is currently hitting .264/.308/.416 with 20 doubles and five homers in 231 at-bats. Hodges, 24, has struggled with his batting average a bit this season, but he should be able to maintain a .270-.290 average in the Majors with average to slight-below average power for the hot corner. He performs equally well against right-handed and left-handed pitchers in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, although his slugging percentage is almost .100 points higher against right-handers.

Mike Stanton: Stanton’s double-A numbers are not overly exciting but he’s just 19 years of age. The powerful, young outfielder hit .294/.390/.578 with 12 homers in 180 at-bats prior to his promotion from high-A ball to double-A. At the senior level, Stanton is hitting .239/.317/.468 with 12 homers in 222 at-bats. Last season, he hit 39 homers as a 19 year old. His power is off the charts, but he needs to trim his strikeout rates, which currently sit at 33.3 K%. He may also be pressing to drive in runs with a .259 batting average with the bases empty and a .183 average with runners in scoring position. Stanton will no doubt return to double-A in 2010 but, if everything clicks, he could be in Florida by mid-season.

Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez got off to a slow start in his first pro season, but he’s picked things up since being promoted to double-A. The third baseman is hitting almost .100 points higher despite playing at a more difficult level. He may be the type of player that needs to be challenged. Alvarez, 22, is currently hitting .327/.395/.558 with eight homers in 156 double-A at-bats. His numbers have been helped by an extremely high BABIP at .413 and his walk rate (10.9 BB%) is down three percent from high-A ball. His strikeout rate is almost identical at 28.2 K%. Alvarez does have a healthy line-drive rate at 20.7%. The power is legit, but at this point he’s probably a .250-.260 hitter in the Majors.

Adam Moore: The trade of Jeff Clement to Pittsburgh opens the door to the full-time catching gig once Seattle tires of Kenji Johjima behind the dish. Rob Johnson has an early lead on the job thanks to his current presence in the Majors and solid defensive work, but Moore is the superior hitter. The right-handed hitter opened the season in double-A but moved up to triple-A after just 27 games. At triple-A, Moore is currently hitting .298/.347/.419 with six homers in 265 at-bats. His walk rate is at its lowest point in three seasons at 6.7 BB%, but so is his strikeout rate at 15.1 K%. The 25-year-old has the potential to hit 15-20 homers in the Majors and he performs well against southpaws (.329/.372/.466 in ’09).

Allen Craig: The former eighth-round pick out of the University of California (2006) has been spending more time in the outfield and could see significant playing time for the Cardinals in 2010 if Matt Holliday does not resign with the club. Craig can also play first base and third base, so his versatility adds to his value. The 25-year-old is currently hitting .312/.368/.534 with 21 homers in 382 at-bats at triple-A. He’s hit 20 homers-plus and batted more than .300 in three straight seasons. Craig has a walk rate of 7.5 BB% and a strikeout rate of 19.9 K%. He’s an underrated prospect with a real chance to help St. Louis in 2010.

Angel Salome: Milwaukee recently purged a number of under-performing veterans and catcher Jason Kendall could be on the way out of town after the season ends. Salome is a step down defensive, especially when you consider Kendall’s leadership and game-calling skills, but the prospect has a much better bat. The right-handed hitter is a legitimate .280-.300 hitter with excellent contact skills. He’ll probably never hit for power in the Majors with his line drive swing and 5’7” stature. Durability could also be an issue with the young catcher. This season in triple-A, Salome is hitting .289/.338/.418. He has a walk rate of 7.3 BB% and a strikeout rate of 19.3 K%.


Baltimore Pitching is Ready to Fly

To begin the 2009 season, Baltimore Orioles fans were treated to a starting rotation that included the likes of Koji Uehara, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Alfredo Simon. There is no reason to ask why the club is in last place, 23 games out of first in the American League East.

Guthrie and Uehara have not been terrible. At the age of 30, Guthrie doesn’t really have any upside left but he’s developed into a fairly dependable No. 3 starter. He is exposed, though, if a club relies on him to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, which he’s been in Baltimore. Uehara, who came over from Japan prior to the 2009 season, has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and hasn’t pitched since June. His numbers weren’t bad prior to the injury but the 34-year-old right-hander was pitching like a No. 4 starter.

As grim as the above information is, the future is extremely bright for the Orioles’ starting pitching staff. Fans in Baltimore have already been treated to the MLB debuts for the club’s top two pitching prospects: Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. Both players have been roughed up a bit at times – mainly due to a lack of command – but their potential is evident. They project to fill in the top of the Orioles’ starting rotation for years to come.

Brad Bergesen has been a surprise contributor to the rotation this season as a rookie. The right-hander was flying under the radar of prospect watchers but he’s made 19 starts for the club and has allowed 126 hits in 123 innings of work. He has a solid ERA at 3.43, as well as a respectable FIP at 4.08. His walk rate is marvelous at 2.34 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is alarmingly low at 4.74 K/9. Bergesen, though, lives and dies by the ground ball and currently has a ground-ball rate of 50.1%. With a fastball that sits right around 89-90 mph, and a good slider, Bergesen, 23, could fill the No. 4 or 5 starter’s role for the Orioles for quite some time.

Like Bergesen, David Hernandez has also provided more innings for the club than expected in ’09. The right-hander has pitched reasonable well, although he’s been a little too hittable with 60 hits allowed in 52.1 innings of work. His walk rate is OK at 3.61 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is quite low at 4.82 K/9, especially considering that he was averaging K/9 rates of 9.50 to 11.00 in the minors. Hernandez is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate of just 29.3%. His stuff is good, though, as he’s been average around 93 mph on the fastball and he also has a solid slider, and an OK changeup. He could battle Bergesen in the future for a back-of-the-rotation spot with the loser moving to the bullpen.

Rookie Jason Berken has made 14 starts with the Orioles but has an ERA of 6.72 (FIP of 5.01). He’s allowed 89 hits in 69.2 innings of work, while also posting rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 5.04 K/9. His ground-ball rate is just 38.1% and his line-drive rate is 24.2%. Berken is getting hit hard despite a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that averages 92 mph. The 25-year-old pitcher is probably best suited to bullpen work, but he could become a valuable swing pitcher.

The Orioles club still has two pitchers remaining in triple-A and double-A who should both settle into the MLB rotation within the next year: Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Matusz jumped over Arrieta after the latter pitcher hit a three-start rough patch in triple-A from July 24-Aug. 3. The right-hander dominated high-A and double-A, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency in triple-A. Regardless, the 23-year-old pitcher has all the potential necessary to be a very good No. 3 starter in the Majors, including low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curve and changeup.

Erbe has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit because of a rough 2007 at high-A ball (although he was just 19 years of age at the time). Now 21, the right-hander has been slowed by some injuries this season but he’s been dominant as of late. In his last start against the Jays’ double-A affiliate, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. On the season, he has allowed 29 hits in 47.2 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 3.97 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.55 K/9. Both those rates will surely improve once he gains better command of his pitches, which include a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus slider and an OK changeup. Right-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him.

If all goes well, the Orioles rotation could eventually stack up like this:
1. Chris Tillman, RHP, age 21
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, 22
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 21
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP, 23
5. Brad Bergesen, RHP, 23

6. David Hernandez, RHP, 24
7. Jason Berken, RHP, 25

For fantasy baseball managers, the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching depth offers some very intriguing options in keeper leagues. For Orioles fans, the above depth chart is exciting news after enduring a very ugly April.