Welcome to the regularly updated Top 50 Impact Rookies for 2014. This ranking tool grades freshman players based on their projected MLB impacts for 2014 only (not future years) so it will vary significantly from typical Top 50 or 100 prospects lists.

*Masahiro Tanaka (and other Japanese hurlers) has been omitted due to his service time in Japan, as well as the level of competition. Cuban and Mexican imports have not been omitted due to the lower level of competition in their respective countries.

Updated: May 12, 2014

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the regularly updated Top 50 Impact Rookies for 2014. This ranking tool grades freshman players based on their projected MLB impacts for 2014 only (not future years) so it will vary significantly from typical Top 50 or 100 prospects lists.

*Masahiro Tanaka (and other Japanese hurlers) has been omitted due to his service time in Japan, as well as the level of competition. Cuban and Mexican imports have not been omitted due to the lower level of competition in their respective countries.

Updated: April 28, 2014

RoY Fav Jose Abreu | White Sox (1B)

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April 28: It’s been an up-and-down month for Abreu’s value but he’s currently leading rookies in WAR at 0.9, as well as in home runs with 10, RBIs with 31 and weighted runs created (wRC+) at 152. In fact, he’s leading the Majors in home runs and RBI. The White Sox would be kind of lost without him right now.

April 21: Just over a week ago, commenters were up-in-arms that Abreu wasn’t No. 1 on this list but we’ve now seen what makes The Show so damn tough. After striking out just five times in his first 10 games, the Cuban import has gone down on strikes 11 times in his next seven contests. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is sitting at .224.

April 10: Abreu, a Cuba native, entered the 2014 season with a lot of question marks given his lack of track record in North America. A solid spring and respectable start to the MLB season has helped to alleviate some of those concerns.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the regularly updated Top 50 Impact Rookies for 2014. This ranking tool grades freshman players based on their projected MLB impacts for 2014 so it will vary significantly from typical Top 50 or 100 prospects lists. You can always find it in the tool box on the right.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the regularly updated Top 50 Impact Rookies for 2014. This ranking tool grades freshman players based on their projected MLB impacts for 2014 so it will vary significantly from typical Top 50 or 100 prospects lists.

#1 Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox (3B/SS)

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Age	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
20	50	10.0 %	26.0 %	.250	.320	.364	.304	86	-0.4	0.2	0.2

April 10: With Boston’s decision not to resign veteran shortstop Stephen Drew, Bogaerts was handed the starting shortstop gig in Boston at the age of 21. The regular playing time — as well as his advanced feeling for hitting — makes him an early favorite for the Rookie of the Year award in the American League (along with the Yankee’s Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka). Read the rest of this entry »

The Hot

Neftali Feliz, Texas
Feliz continues to have a nice season and he saved three more games this past week. He also struck out four batters in 3.2 innings. The workload continues to worry me, so keep that in the back of your mind – especially if you’re in a keeper league. On the year, Feliz has 26 saves in 28 tries and has given up just 26 hits in 41.1 innings.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland
Bailey had a nice week with two saves and a win in three games. He did not allow an earned run and struck out two batters in 3.1 innings. Bailey has 20 saves and a solid ERA at 1.56 (xFIP of 4.15), but the low strikeout rate keeps him out of the “elite closer” category.

David Aardsma, Seattle
Aardsma could potentially change hands in the next week with the trade deadline looming. The right-hander looked good this past week with no runs allowed and six Ks in 3.0 innings of work. For the year, Aardsma has been up-and-down and sports a 4.88 ERA. He’s not an elite closer, but he’s a solid second closer for a fantasy team in a mixed league.

The Not

Kevin Gregg, Toronto
Aardsma’s trade value may have taken a bit of a bump up, but Gregg’s is certainly down. Toronto will most certainly not pick up his option for 2011 and the club may be afraid to offer him arbitration in the winter, so trading him now may be the only way to get a little (tiny) bit of value for him. Gregg has shown terrible control recently (four walks in 2.1 innings this past week) and he’s been toxic in high-leverage situations.

Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay
Soriano appeared in just two games this past week and he was roughed up by Baltimore on July 20 and blew the save. Overall, though, it was his first blown save in eight games. He’s struggled with his command recently. Soriano previously went 17 games without issuing a walk but he’s given up three free passes in his last four appearances. He’s a solid bet going forward.

Keep an Eye On…

David Robertson, New York
Robertson isn’t in line for saves in New York any time soon, but he could be an attractive trade target for a smart general manager. The right-hander showed his stuff this past week with seven strikeouts in 4.1 innings. On the year, he currently sports a 4.76 ERA, but his xFIP sits at 3.87 and in parts of three seasons, he has an 11.50 K/9 rate. With a little more consistent control and command of his breaking ball, the 25-year-old reliever could become a solid eighth- or ninth-inning guy.

Koji Uehara, Baltimore
Alfredo Simon is currently “The Man” when it comes to save opportunities in Baltimore, but Uehara could see more opportunities later this year or into 2011. The Japanese veteran has been solid while pitching out of the bullpen since coming back from injury. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 10.67 K/9 in ’10, compared to 6.48 K/9 when he was pitching out of the starting rotation in ’09. He comes at batters with no fewer than five different pitches, which helps make up for his 87 mph fastball.

The Hot

Brian Wilson, San Francisco
The veteran closer was hot for the Giants this past week as he recorded four saves in as many tries. Appeared in an eye-popping five games in seven days, Wilson also took a loss on July 18 against the Mets. Over his 4.1 innings, the right-handed reliever struck out eight batters but gave up five hits. Along with a solid ERA of 1.93, Wilson has an attractive strikeout rate of 12.43 K/9.

Leo Nunez, Florida
Nunez had perhaps his most successful week of the year by recording three saves and a win without allowing a run in four appearances. He also struck out nine batters in 4.0 innings. The former Royals reliever has never posted a 10.00+ strikeout rate (career high is 7.86 K/9), but he’s currently sitting at 10.18 K/9. He’s also had an improved ground-ball rate (50.5%) over his previous fly-ball tendencies.

John Axford, Milwaukee
Axford gave up just one hit and one walk over 4.0 innings this past week, which helped him secure three saves. He also struck out six batters and did not allow a runner to reach home plate. The right-handed rookie has now saved 13 games in 26 appearances and has a strikeout rate of 11.40 K/9. His days of control issues appear to be mostly behind him and he currently has positive pitch type values on all three of his pitches: mid-90s fastball, slider and change-up.

The Not

Carlos Marmol, Chicago
The strikeouts keep piling up for Marmol (seven more this past week) but that does not mean that he had success. The monster right-hander blew a save and took the loss this past week. In four appearances, he gave up just one hit but walked five batters. Marmol has an awesome strikeout rate on the year of 16.88 K/9 but his walk rate sits at 6.55 BB/9 and his ground-ball rate is just 34.7%.

Billy Wagner, Atlanta
After a couple of scorching weeks, Wagner was due to cool down. The veteran closer gave up two runs, including a homer, over the past seven days. In 2.2 innings (over three games), Wagner gave up three hits but did not walk a batter and he struck out two. All his trouble came in one game against San Diego on July 21 so there is really no reason for concern; prior to the blow-up, Wagner had gone eight games without allowing a run.

Keep an Eye On…

Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles
It’s hard to earn saves when you pitch with a guy like Jonathan Broxton, but Kuo has a lot of potential should the closer get injured (or a trade occurs). The right-hander pitched four innings this past week and did not allow a hit – although he did walk three batters. Kuo currently has a 0.86 ERA (3.07 xFIP) and a strikeout rate of 11.20 K/9 in 29 games. If he can avoid the disabled list going forward (a BIG if), Kuo has closer stuff.

It was an All-Star shortened week, but let’s have a look and see who was hot over the past seven days.

The Hot

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore
Simon was the only AL closer to record more than one save this past week. He notched two stops without allowing a run or a free pass, which is no small feat for a guy with a walk rate of 4.68 BB/9 on the season. Simon currently features a 3.24 ERA but his xFIP of 4.51 suggests that you should be cautious with him moving forward. He’s really a one-pitch pitcher right now (fastball) as both his slider and splitter have negative pitch-type values.

Jose Valverde, Detroit
Valverde was successful in his only save opportunity of the week and he did not give up a run over two appearances. He also recorded three strikeouts. He continues to be helped by an incredibly lucky BABIP-allowed of just .169. His ground ball rate (improved by about 40% over his career norm) of 62.4% has helped him keep the ball in the park despite seeing a big drop in strikeout rate (10.72 career to 8.31 K/9 in 2010). It appears that he’s relying on his splitter much more than he has in the past.

The Not

Joba Chamberlain, New York
There weren’t really any closers that had terrible weeks in the AL, so it’s a good time to focus on Chamberlain since he’s the heir apparent to the closer’s role in New York. He blew a save and took the loss against Seattle on July 10. His season has not been nearly as bad as his 5.79 ERA would suggest. Chamberlain has a hit rate of 10.13 H/9 but his xFIP is just 3.38 and his BABIP-allowed sits at .380. On the plus side, both his walk rate (3.38 BB/9) and strikeout rate (9.64 K/9) have improved over 2009.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland
Again, it wasn’t a bad week for closers overall, so Bailey’s loss gets him on the list. The right-hander also saved a game this past week but he gave up three hits, two walks and a run in two appearances against the Angels. Bailey is still throwing well overall and has given up just two earned runs in his past 12 appearances. He’s also 6-for-6 in save opportunities since mid-June.

Keep An Eye On…

Chris Perez, Cleveland
With trade rumors swirling around Kerry Wood, Perez could find himself back in the closer’s role before you know it. He did himself no favors this past week, though, as he walked five batters in 1.1 innings of work. The walks came during a three-day span. He walked three batters in one-third of an inning of July 9 and two batters in 1.0 inning of July 11. Luckily, he did not allow a hit or a run during that rough patch. Since June 1, Perez had walked just three batters in 14 appearances prior to July 9. He also hasn’t given up a hit in five appearances dating back to late June.

It was an All-Star-shortened week, but let’s have a look and see who was hot over the past seven days.

The Hot

Leo Nunez, Florida
Nunez continues to have a very solid season. He’s coming off of a week in which he saved two games in as many tries. He gave up one hit and did not allow a walk while recording two Ks. For the season, his xFIP sits at 2.99 and his strikeout rate is a career-high 9.08 K/9. His xFIP in July is 1.37 so it’s nice to see him staying strong.

Honorable Mentions: Both Huston Street and Billy Wagner were featured in last week’s post and both closers continue to roll along by recording two saves each without allowing an earned run. Hopefully you were able to grab Street off the waiver wire or from an unsuspecting fellow fantasy manager.

The Not

John Axford, Milwaukee:
In terms of fantasy value, Axford actually had a good week by recording a save and two wins in three appearances. However, he gave up four hits and two runs during that stetch. He was touched up by Pittsburgh on back-to-back nights. Overall, his numbers remain strong with a 2.76 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 11.08.

Heath Bell, San Diego:
Bell appeared in just one game this past week and was dinged for a run against Colorado. It took him 29 pitches – the most he’s thrown in any one game this season – to get through 1.2 innings of work. The outing broke a strong of six scoreless appearances, so there is really no reason to be concerned. He’s also struck out at least one batter per appearance in his last 10 games.

Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh
Mr. Inconsistency posted a 20.25 ERA in two games while blowing two saves and taking a loss in the one game. He gave up four runs on three hits over 1.1 innings of work. Dotel now has five blown saves on the year. He’s struggling against left-handed hitters who have a .309 batting average and 9.24 BB/9 rate against him. Right-handers, meanwhile, have a .192 average and 1.61 BB/9 rate.

Keep An Eye On…

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia
The ERA of 4.60 is ugly, but his xFIP sits at 3.43 and he has a solid strikeout rate at 12.06 K/9. Lidge’s BABIP rate is high-ish at .341 and his overall numbers are skewed by the three-spot he allowed against Cincinnati on June 29. He’s a potentially solid buy-low closer.

The Hot
Joakim Soria, Kansas City
Mr. Soria had a fine week by recording four saves in as many tries. He was touched up for a run and walked two batters but he struck out six. His numbers have been very consistent over the past two years so we pretty know what to expect for Soria; he’s a top-tier closer when KC gets him enough save opportunities. This season, he’s entering the break with 25 saves.

Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay
Like Soria, Soriano recorded four saves over the past seven days. He also gave up four hits and two walks with three Ks. It’s early July and the veteran has almost surpassed his career high in saves (27), which was set last year. Interestingly, his strikeout rate is down significantly over last season (12.13 to 7.99 K/9) but his walk rate is much improved (3.21 to 1.93 BB/9). With that said, he’s also benefited from some luck as his 1.65 ERA is much shinier than his xFIP (4.01).

The Not
Neftali Feliz, Texas
Feliz, like Francisco Cordero in the NL, is one of the hardest worked relievers in the Majors and both started to slip this past week. Feliz posted a 15.42 ERA in three games, although he was 2-for-2 in saves. He gave up three hits and two walks in 2.2 innings of work. Feliz has ridden his fastball for much of the season, as both his curveball and changeup have pretty much been neutral pitches for him in terms of value.

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore
Simon gave up just one hit in 4.0 innings this past week but he walked three and gave up two runs, including a homer. He went 2-for-3 in save opportunities. Simon is an OK second closer and a pretty good third option but you don’t want to rely on him too heavily because he is inconsistent.

Keep an Eye On…
Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay
Rafael Soriano hasn’t shown many cracks in his armor this season, but the veteran also has a history of injury problems. With that in mind, Benoit is a great pitcher to keep an eye on in mixed leagues and he might even be worth picking up now in deep AL-only leagues. The former Ranger had a great week by striking out six batters in 3.0 innings; he also did not give up a walk or a hit. On the year, he has an xFIP of 1.85 and a strikeout rate of 13.32 K/9.

The Hot
Billy Wagner, Atlanta
It was a great week for Wagner, who saved four games in as many tries and gave up just one hit in 4.0 innings. He didn’t walk anyone and he struck out five batters. The greats truly do get better with age. Wagner has a strikeout rate of 13.62 K/9 and hitters are batting just .163 against him.

Huston Street, Colorado
It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to discuss Street. He’s finally healthy and hasn’t missed a beat. The veteran closer saved two games last week and also picked up a win. He allowed one run on three hits over 5.0 innings of work and struck out four batters. Keep an eye on his slider (out-pitch), though. It hasn’t been as sharp.

The Not
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati
Cordero has been near the top of the saves leader board all season but he’s rarely dominated. He went 2-for-3 in saves this past week and got beat up a bit. The former Ranger gave up two runs in 2.2 innings of work, thanks to two hits and four walks. Cordero has walked batters in four straight games and we’re seeing significantly-increased fly-ball rates, which suggests he’s tired and elevating his pitches.

Francisco Rodriguez, New York
It was a bad week to be named “Francisco.” Rodriguez battled his control this past week and walked four batters in 2.1 innings. He also allowed four hits and gave up three runs – although almost all the damage was done in one game against Washington. The veteran closer went 1-for-2 in save opportunities and has given up eight hits over his last 4.0 innings (five appearances). Overall, though, he’s still showing much better control this season with a rate of 3.56 (5.03 in ’09).

Keep an Eye On…
Chris Ray, San Francisco
It’s really been an ugly year for Ray, who is trying to recover after some pretty serious injuries. The good news is that his fastball has good velocity and his slider is showing some of its past potential. The downside is that his strikeout rate is just 4.86 K/9 and he has an xFIP of 5.41. The move to the NL could really help and he’s had success early on. This past week he allowed just one hit (and no walks) in 4.2 innings of work. Ray also recorded four Ks. If he keeps this up, he could be in line for some saves when Brian Wilson needs a rest – or he could end up being flipped to a team in need of a cheap closer.