Author Archive

The Freshmen Report: Buxton, Franco, Lindor, May

Today at The Freshmen Report we’re taking a look at some recently-promoted top prospects, as well as a reliable — but unspectacular — American League starting pitcher.

Byron Buxton, CF, Twins: Minnesota is having a pretty solid season but the offence has definitely not been a strong suit for the club. Center field has been a big gap with both Aaron Hicks (now injured) and Jordan Schafer producing OPS numbers below .600. As a result, the organization reached down to Double-A to pluck top prospect Buxton away from a solid rebound season after he missed much of 2014 due to injuries. It’s been a rough going early on with a strikeout rate hovering around 38% but it’s only been four games and, frankly, the Twins don’t have many other options. Buxton, 21, is going to have some rough edges to his game but his athleticism — and value on the bases and in the field — should allow him to hang in there. The 2015 season likely won’t be a huge gain for him but he should be able to keep his head above water given enough patience.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Prospect Stock Watch: Gordon, Hoffman, Schwarber

The with the 2015 amateur draft now in the rearview mirror — but the excitement still simmering while fans await signing news — let’s check in on some of the top draft picks from 2014 and see how they’re doing.

Nick Gordon, SS, Twins: A year ago, people were calling Nick the better Gordon when compared to brother Dee. The Marlins shortstop, though, is enjoying an all-star-caliber season due to his .416 BABIP and improved defence. Nick could still overtake his brother one day but the early results in his pro career have not been great. Currently playing in Low-A ball at the age of 19, he features a disappointing .604 OPS with just eight of his 52 hits going for extra bases (.288 SLG%). Like his brother, speed is supposed to be a big part of his game but he’s only stolen 25 bases in his career (111 games) with 12 caught stealing. The second-place Twins have seen some success in 2015 despite dismal results from the shortstop position. Unfortunately, the club’s top shortstop prospect is probably at least three years away. [Value Down]

Read the rest of this entry »


The Freshmen Report: Burns, DeShields Jr., Russell

Today at The Freshmen Report we’re going to look at a couple of speedsters that are positively impacting their clubs, as well as one of the Cubs’ promising young players.

Billy Burns, OF, Athletics: The A’s entered the season with all sorts of outfield options and Burns was an afterthought — demoted to Triple-A to begin the year. A development success by the Nationals — who selected him in the 32nd round of the 2011 draft — the speedy outfielder needed less than four years in the minors to become a impactful leadoff hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts but needs to get on base more consistently with a walk rate of just 4.3%; his .362 on-base percentage if heavily-fuelled by his .318 average. Burns, 25, entered the 2015 season viewed as a potential fourth outfielder and, although he’s off to a fast start (pun intended), he hasn’t proven that he’s a regular center-fielder just yet. Enjoy the offence while it lasts but don’t plan around him long term.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Prospect Stock Watch: Ross, Stephenson, Urena

The baseball season is in full swing and prospects around baseball are already seeing their stock values start to shift up or down. Today we’re looking at a pitcher who could help out in the playoff race in the second half of 2015 and a few other players that are quite talented but also a few years away from reaching The Show.

Ozhaino Albies, SS, Braves: Albies didn’t enter pro ball until 2014 but the 18-year-old infielder is already making a name for himself. After hitting . 364 in his debut, the young prospect is more than holding his own in full-season ball. He has a .313 batting average and has walked almost as much as he’s struck out (21/28) and has stolen 20 bases in 52 games. Braves’ incumbent shortstop Andrelton Simmons will be a tough man to move off of shortstop but second base could eventually become home to Albies, and the Braves organization is not shy about aggressively promoting talented prospects (as seen with the likes of Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones). [Value Up]

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sophomore Report: Elias, Holt, Hendricks

We always read a lot about prospects and rookies but the coverage tends to fall off the map after the conclusion of a player’s freshman season. This ongoing series will chronicle the successes and failures of the sophomore class to help determine whose rookie season was a harbinger of even better things to come, and whose was blanketed in smoke and mirrors.

Previous:
The Sophomore Report 1
The Sophomore Report 2
The Sophomore Report 3

Roenis Elias, RHP, Mariners: Despite a surprisingly-good freshman season, Elias was unable to crack the Mariners’ opening day roster and opened the year in the minors. Injuries presented an opportunity to the 26-year-old hurler at the end of April and he hasn’t looked back. When you adjust for his 91% strand rate, Elias has been basically the same (surprising) pitcher that he was in 2015. Consistent lefties with the ability to miss bats and churn out innings are hard to come by and he should hold on to his rotation spot even when (if) all the Mariners hurlers are healthy and productive.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Prospect Stock Watch: Austin, Light, Lindgren

The baseball season is in full swing and prospects around baseball are already seeing their stock values start to shift up or down. Today we’re looking at four prospects from the American League — three of whom can found playing for organizations in the AL East.

Tyler Austin, OF, Yankees: The up-and-down career of Austin may finally be running out of ‘ups.” A highly-regarded amateur when he was drafted in 2010, had two solid pro seasons but fell on hard times in 2013 due to injury. He rebounded somewhat in 2014 but currently sports a .486 OPS in 34 Triple-A games. He’s managed just five extra base hits but has been striking out like a slugger with 38 whiffs. Added to the 40-man roster last November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, he might go unclaimed through the waiver process if the Yankees were to need room on the roster. With aging hitters on the big league roster, the club will likely need to rely on its outfield depth in 2015 and could reach down into Double-A to promote 2013 first rounder Aaron Judge — rather than give a shot to the likes of Triple-A outfielders Austin, Ben Gamel, Ramon Flores, or Slade Heathcott. [Value Down]

Read the rest of this entry »


The Freshmen Report: Lobstein, Sanchez, Smith, Tomas

Today in The Freshmen Report we’re going to look at, among other things, the White Sox’s second base job and a potential heir apparent to Fernando Rodney in Seattle.

Previous Reports:
Freshmen May 4
Freshmen April 23

Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Tigers: If there is one thing the Rays know how to do it’s develop pitching. Lobstein is one of those lucky individuals, even though he was traded to the Tigers midway through that process. He’s not flashy but southpaws don’t have to light up the radar gun if they can command and control the ball. He averages just 86 mph but utilizes a four-pitch mix, including the trendy cutter. Despite his lack of velocity, Lobstein has a sturdy frame with a history of providing lots of innings — and he’s continued that in the Majors by averaging almost 6.0 innings a game. The big worry with this rookie right now is the lack of strikeouts. His rate sits at just 4.08 K/9 but he’s offset that by inducing ground balls at an above-average rate. Justin Verlander is getting closer to returning from the disabled list so Lobstein may have to shift to the bullpen in June, unless (or, perhaps, until) another injury crops up.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Prospect Stock Watch: Coulter, Snell, Turner

The baseball season is in full swing and prospects around baseball are already seeing their stock values start to shift up or down. Today we’re going to take a look at three young players that have seen their values increase and have an opportunity to impact their clubs in 2016 — if not sooner.

Earlier Editions:
Prospect Stock Watch 2
Prospect Stock Watch 1

Clint Coulter, OF, Brewers: The Brewers began the task of converting Coulter from catcher to outfielder in 2014 and it’s continued on into this season. The young prospect has yet to don the tools of ignorance in an official game in 2015 but, unlike a lot of players converted from catching, he doesn’t project to lose much value. That’s because he offers so much at the plate beginning with plus power, which he’s showcased in the Florida State League (A+) this year with a .607 slugging and seven homers in 28 games.

Coulter, 21, strikes out like a power hitter but he also takes a lot of walks and should produce a strong on-base percentage in the Majors. After a strong 2014 season in 2014 and a quick start in ’15, he’s primed for a promotion to Double-A by mid-year, which would put him in the Majors in 2016. That could make incumbent left-fielder Kris Davis expendable as he enters arbitration and becomes more expensive. [Value Up]

* * *

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sophomore Report: Abreu, deGrom, Pillar

We read a lot about prospects and rookies but the coverage tends to fall off the map after the conclusion of a player’s freshman season. This ongoing series will chronicle the successes and failures of the sophomore class to help determine whose rookie season was a harbinger of even better things to come, and whose first foray into The Show was actually blanketed in smoke and mirrors.

The Sophomore Report, week 1
The Sophomore Report, week 2

Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox: Let’s be honest, Abreu couldn’t have had a much better rookie season. But in doing so he set the bar extremely high as we all expect bigger and better things from players in the early years of their career. Abreu, 28, isn’t a typical rookie, of course, having played professionally in Cuba before his defection. So far this year, he’s a little bit behind his 2014 pace but a little regression was expected and his batting average on balls in play from 2014 has dipped from .356 to .300 and, as more of a slow-footed-slugger, he’s not the type of player that’s typically a perennial .300+ hitter. As the weather warms up in Chicago and elsewhere, though, expect his power to really kick in (His hottest prolonged stretch last year was June-August). Hopefully by then the players in the lineup around him are playing up to their potential.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Freshmen Report: Bryant, Pederson, Pompey

The freshmen season is in full swing around Major League Baseball and numerous rookies are making their presences known. At the same time, others are stumbling and already receiving tickets for the first bus out of town back to the minors.

Other Pieces: The Freshmen Report: April 23

Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs: Everyone except, perhaps, Mike Olt and his family knew his stranglehold on the third base job in Chicago would be futile. Bryant received the much-anticipated call to The Show in late-ish April and his reputation has certainly preceded him. Pitchers are already afraid of him; they’ve been extremely cautious while h’s been extremely patient — not trying to do too much — as witnessed by his 19% walk rate. He has yet to hit a home run in the Majors but he’s shown everyone why I pushed for him to be the first overall pick in the 2012 amateur draft. He’s a threat to hit 20+ home runs this season and 30+ annually despite his slow start to the power game.

Read the rest of this entry »