This week’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at a fast-rising Rockies third base prospect, an Astros catching prospect that’s exceeding expectation every step of the way and yet another promising Dodgers prospect.

Previous Prospect Stock Watch:
 May 1 Alford, Funkhouser, Soroka

Ryan McMahon, 3B/1B, Rockies: I’ve been one of McMahon’s biggest supporters since he turned pro but he hit a significant speed bump during his first shot at the upper minors in 2016. His OPS dropped below .860 for the first time in his four-year career when he ended the double-A season at .724. This year, upon a return to the same level, he’s up to .998 through the first 25 games.

McMahon, 22, is always going to strike out a lot – his career rate is north of 25% — but he’s made some adjustments to his swing/approach (as noted in this piece by David Laurila) and is down to 17% so far this year. As well, almost half his hits have gone for extra bases – a trend more in line with his numbers from 2013-15. McMahon is a doubles-machine and ‘the Colorado effect’ could help turn some of those into over-the-fence bombs giving his 20-30 home run potential — especially if the inflated home run rates in the majors continue.

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Welcome to another season of the Prospect Stock Watch — a series I’ve been writing for six years now.

Anthony Alford, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
MLB ETA: 2018
Ceiling: Lead-off hitter/All-star center-fielder

Selected out of high school in 2012, Alford signed a unique deal with the Jays that allowed him to dabble in baseball during the summers while play college football. He appeared in just 25 games over the first three years of his pro career before turning to the sport full-time in 2015 after his college football career went sideways.

Alford showed a lot of potential that year and posted an .820 OPS while splitting the season between two A-ball levels and he looked poised for a huge breakout in 2016. Unfortunately, he hurt himself in the first game of the year and missed about a month. A concussion clouded the remainder of his season.

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The Chicago Cubs have a pretty good, young third baseman named Kris Bryant. You may have heard of him. He has two MLB seasons under his belt and his awards shelf already has both a Rookie of the Year and a MVP award.

The club also has one of the top third base prospects in the game in Jeimer Candelario, who is beginning his second year in triple-A. Last season, he hit .333/.417/.542 in 76 games. So far this year, he’s hitting .308/.410/.692 in his first 15 games. And he’s not a recent pop-up prospect, either. He’s been on prospect radars since 2012 when he hit well as a teenager during his North American debut. Inconsistencies, though, plagued Candelario throughout much of his career and as recently as 2016 when he opened the year by hitting just .219 with a .690 OPS in double-A before earning a challenge-promotion to triple-A where he hit much better and saw his OPS jump almost .300 points.

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Today, we wrap up our look at the Top 10 prospects for 2017 in each of the six leagues. The lists were created by blending potential playing time, MLB-readiness and overall skill to take a stab at predicting the most valuable rookies for the coming season.

NL East
NL West
NL Central
AL West
AL East

Top 10 Prospects for 2017: AL Central

1. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago: Giolito’s value is down right now – along with his velocity — but he’s still one of the most promising near-MLB-ready arms in the minors. I will admit, though, that I doubt the White Sox’s ability to develop prospects and I’d feel a lot better if the right-hander was still in the Nationals system. When he’s going well, Giolito has both a plus fastball and a plus curveball. His changeup, when it’s on, can also be an above-average offering, meaning he has more than enough weapons to dominate big league hitters. With a pretty thin starting rotation at the big league level, the wheels will really have to fall off of Giolito’s bandwagon for him to not see a big league mound by the summer.

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Today, we continue our look at the Top 10 prospects for 2017 in each of the six leagues. The lists have been created by blending potential playing time, MLB-readiness and overall skill to take a stab at predicting the most valuable rookies for the coming season. Recently, we reviewed the NL East, the NL West, the NL Central, and the AL West.

Top 10 Prospects for 2017: AL East
 
1. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston: Benintendi has already received a lot of press and is easily the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. He already has 34 games of big league experience under his belt and has yet to look fazed. He’s hit well and shown promise in the field. Benintendi is not a huge guy but he’s shown extra base pop and could eventually threaten 20 homers to go along with his 30-40 doubles in a full season. He should also regularly come close to producing a .400 on-base percentage with his ability to hit for average and tendency to walk more than he strikes out. He’s going to be a beast and reminds me of Mike Greenwell in his prime.

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Today, we continue our look at the Top 10 prospects for 2017 in each of the six leagues. The lists have been created by blending potential playing time, MLB-readiness and overall skill to take a stab at predicting the most valuable rookies for the coming season. Recently, we reviewed the NL East, the NL West and the NL Central.

Top 10 Prospects for 2017: AL West

1. Jharel Cotton, RHP, Oakland: Acquired from the Dodgers last year as part of the return for Josh Reddick, Cotton has made huge development leaps since the beginning of 2016. After bouncing between the bullpen and starting rotation in the Dodgers system, Cotton has settled into the rotation with the A’s and looks like a steal. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball and backs it up with a plus changeup. If he can improve his breaking ball and continue to show good control, he has a chance to really thrive in his big home ballpark (He got tagged for 24 homers in ’16). After throwing 165 innings last year, he could be good for 180+ although the club will want to be cautious with the modestly-built pitcher.

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Today, we continue our look at the Top 10 prospects for 2017 in each of the six leagues. The lists have been created by blending potential playing time, MLB-readiness and overall skill to take a stab at predicting the most valuable rookies for the coming season. Recently, we reviewed the NL East and the NL West.

Top 10 Prospects for 2017: NL Central

1. Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh: Bell entered the year as the favorite to play everyday at first base for the Pirates in 2017 but a terrible spring (.409 OPS in 43 at-bats) likely shortened his leash and he’ll need to start hitting to keep his spot given his defensive limitations. Veteran first baseman John Jaso remains on-hand in a part-time role but he could easily move in and take the lion’s share of the playing time. Bell has a chance to produce good power and above-average on-base numbers if he can sort out his swing. He remains one of the favorites for Rookie of the Year in the National League.

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Today, we continue our look at the Top 10 prospects for 2017 in each of the six leagues. The lists have been created by blending potential playing time, MLB-readiness and overall skill to take a stab at predicting the most valuable rookies for the coming season. Last week, we reviewed the NL East.

Top 10 Prospects for 2017: NL West

1. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego:  The Padres should have opportunities a plenty for rookies in 2017 and both Renfroe and Manuel Margot (see below) could see lots of playing time. This 25-year-old rookie really started consistently tapping into his raw power in ’16 and went deep 30 times at triple-A. He then had a scorching 11-game debut in the majors with another four long-balls. He has some swing-and-miss to his game due to an overly-aggressive approach that also leads to low walk rates but Renfroe’s power could eventually go nicely in the middle of the Padres order.
 
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Today, we begin a look at the Top 10 prospects for 2017 in each of the six leagues. The lists have been created by blending potential playing time, MLB-readiness and overall skill to take a stab at predicting the most valuable rookies for the coming season.

Top 10 Prospects for 2017: NL East

1. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta: The former first overall pick of the 2015 amateur draft needed just 127 games of minor league seasoning to earn a shot at the Majors with the Braves. His first 38 games in the Majors produced close to one win in value. The 23-year-old infielder hit more than .300 but he struck out almost once per game and his .383 BABIP is likely going to normalize. He’ll play everyday for the Braves in 2017 but expect an up-and-down year. When the dust settles, I could see 10-15 home runs and a similar number of steals to go with a .270 batting average.

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Over the last two weeks I took a look at the top potential rookies for 2017. In most of those cases it wasn’t difficult to see how they might receive significant playing time during the coming season. Today, I’m taking a look at some players that might be MLB-ready in 2017 but lack clear paths to significant playing time.

Amed Rosario, SS, Mets: I first wrote about Rosario in 2014 when I deemed him the sleeper prospect in the system heading into 2015. Jump forward a few years and he’s undeniably the top prospect in their system and right up there as the top shortstop in baseball with Gleyber Torres and Dansby Swanson (who already has big league experience). Just 21, Rosario has shown the ability to be an elite defender at shortstop and should hit for a strong average with gap power (10-15 homers possible in his prime) and enough speed to net 15-20 bags. In New York, the club has shortstop covered by veterans Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes, both of whom are set to become free agents after the 2017 season — likely opening the door permanently for Rosario. Until then, though, he’ll spend the majority of the coming year at triple-A where he has yet to play after splitting 2016 between high-A and double-A.

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