Today at the Prospect Stock Watch, we take a look at some interesting players in both A-ball and double-A for the Yankees, Brewers, Pirates and Padres.

Abiatal Avelino, SS, Yankees: Avelino flew onto prospect watchers’ and hardcore Yankees fans’ radars way back in 2013 when he hit .303 with more walks than hits and 28 steals in 32 attempts as an 18-year-old. His outputs over the next four years were pretty ho-hum, though, but the Yankees continues to move up the ladder and challenge him. He has played parts of the last three years in double-A. The 23-year-old infielder spent some time in triple-A this year and held his own (.714 OPS) but was moved back down due to the organizational depth in the system. The biggest knocks on Avelino are A) His on-base rate is strongly dependent on his ability to hit for average; and B) He doesn’t possess much pop in his swing. However, he makes a lot of contact and doesn’t strike out much. And he also runs well, and smartly so, which leads to a healthy number of steals. In another organization, Avelino would probably receive more opportunity and he’ll be eligible for minor league free agency at the end of the year with age on his side, versatility and some intriguing tools. He’s hitting the ball harder over the last two years so I could see him spending some time as a second baseman in the majors or, at the very least, a decent back-up.

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I actually broke into baseball writing on the internet by focusing on the draft at the now-defunct “The Baseball Analysts” site… with some pretty talented guys that moved on to work for MLB clubs like Sky Andrecheck, Joe Sheehan, Jeremy Greenhouse, and Jeff Albert. The site’s genius/creator, Rich Lederer, led the charge to have Bert Blyleven inducted into the hall of fame, which has a great story it.

But in those early days we focused on previewing, reviewing, scouting, and live coverage of the drafts — which was a lot of fun. I also interviewed impending draft picks like Brett Lawrie, Matt LaPorta, and Phillippe Aumont. I didn’t get paid for any of the work but I got to learn from some really smart baseball minds and it led to my gig at FanGraphs, which began more than 10 years ago. This is a great approach to take for any of you hoping to one day make a little money writing about baseball (my journalism degree also helped) or working in baseball.

I’m not nearly as heavily invested in the draft now — we have some much smarter minds in charge of that on the FanGraphs side — but it’s still a lot of fun to follow.

Here is an exercise that I still do to this day and I thought I’d go on record doing it this year: Suggesting who I’d pick for each team in the first round of the draft. Here is an example of what I did for the 2008 draft. I didn’t do so well in the example provided from ’08 but in other years I’ve heavily advocated for first overall picks like Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant.

Here is how I’d play out the 2018 first round if I was the Scouting Director (and/or General Manager) at each slot, based on a healthy mix of video, statistics, and scouting reports.

1. Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, college
2. Giants: Brady Singer, RHP, college
3. Phillies: Joey Bart, C, college
4. White Sox: Alec Bohm, 3B, college
5. Reds: Carter Stewart, RHP, prep
6. Mets: Jonathan India, 3B, college
7. Padres: Nick Madrigal, 2B, college
8. Braves: Jackson Kowar, RHP, college
9. Athletics: Travis Swaggerty, OF, college
10. Pirates: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, prep
11. Orioles: Mason Denaburg, RHP, prep
12. Blue Jays: Logan Gilbert, RHP, college
13. Marlins: Jordyn Adams, OF, prep
14. Mariners: Jarred Kelenic, OF, prep
15. Rangers: Nolan Gorman, 3B, prep
16. Rays: Shane McClanahan, LHP, college
17. Angels: Noah Naylor, C, prep
18. Royals: Matthew Liberatore, LHP, prep
19. Cardinals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, prep
20. Twins: Steele Walker, OF, college
21. Brewers: Jeremiah Jackson, SS, prep
22. Rockies: Lineras Torres Jr., RHP, prep
23. Yankees: Greyson Jenista, OF, college
24. Cubs: Blaine Knight, RHP, college
25. Diamondbacks: J.T. Ginn, RHP, prep
26. Red Sox: Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, prep
27. Nationals: Alek Thomas, OF, prep
28. Astros: Ryan Rolison, LHP, college
29. Indians: Seth Beer, 1B, college
30. Dodgers: Nander De Sedas, SS, prep

Great Supplemental and Second Round Options: Cole Winn, Ryan Weathers, Trevor Larnach, Triston Casas, Brice Turang, Jeremy Eierman, Connor Scott (pitcher, not outfielder), Griffin Conine, Tyler Frank, Jordan Groshans, Matt Mercer, Anthony Seigler, Ethan Hankins, Gunnar Hoglund, Kumar Rocker, Nico Hoerner

OK, so that was fun. And now you have some names to consider for your dynasty teams and Ottoneu leagues. And you can judge me in about five to six years time.

On Friday — in honor of the upcoming amateur draft — I checked in on some of the players selected in the second round of the 2017 draft. Today, I’m going to review some of the catchers selected in the first five rounds of the same draft.

More specifically, let’s look at four of the top hitting catchers so far in 2018 — because we all know how hard it can be to find offence from a backstop. For this exercise, I’m going to omit Arizona’s Dalton Varsho because I recently wrote about him.

M.J. Melendez, C, Royals: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this might be one of the biggest steals of the 2017 draft… and Melendez could be the perfect player to eventually take away the on-field leadership mantle from Salvador Perez. Just 19, this second-year player is showing solid offensive skills in low-A ball despite 44 strikeouts in 34 games (30% K-rate). Melendez hits the ball hard and 22 of his 36 hits have gone for extra bases — including eight homers in a league that doesn’t see a ton of power. His walk rate of 8% is not bad given his age. His caught stealing rate of 26% is respectable but not outstanding. He’s made a whopping eight errors in 22 games behind the plate and is definitely still working on the finer aspects of fielding the position despite his above-average athleticism and canon of an arm. I believe he’ll eventually show enough skill behind the plate to stick there if he keeps hitting like he has recently. Overall, there is work to be done but it’s hard to find a teenaged catching prospect showing this kind of offence in full season ball.

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With the 2018 amateur draft just around the corner, we’re going to take a look at some 2017 draftees to see how they’re doing in their first full year of pro ball.

Stuart Fairchild, CF, Reds: Looking back at Fairchild’s pre-draft reports, they continue to remain spot on. He was expected to go in the second round and that’s exactly where the Reds nabbed him. His bat was a bit of a question mark but he was known for a strong arm and excellent center-field defence. Cincinnati has gone easy with him so far and he opened 2018 in low-A ball — whereas most top college hitters are in high-A or better during their first year. Now, Fairchild is hitting well… but he should be doing just that based on his pedigree. The biggest knock against him so far has been the swing-and-miss tendencies that carried over from his collegiate career. It’s not terrible but he’s struck out 40 times in 43 games (Good for just shy of 23%). On the plus side, he offsets that with a healthy number of walks (12%) and I believe he’ll eventually start tapping into his raw power as he consistently hits the ball hard. He might never be a guy that hits for a high average, but Fairchild gets on base nonetheless and could eventually be a 20-20 threat if he generates more loft to his swing.

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Today at the Stock Watch we look prospects in the Oakland, Toronto and Houston minor league systems.

Cavan Biggio, 2B, Blue Jays: As the son of Craig Biggio, Cavan’s name stuck out when he was selected in the fifth round of the 2016. He wasn’t really on many people’s radar, though, and was seen as more of a way for the Jays to keep the budget down so they could afford second rounder Bo Bichette (son of Dante Bichette). Now, he’s more than just a name. He’s a legitimate prospect leading the double-A Eastern League in homers and tying for the third overall in the entire minor leagues. Along with the pop, Biggio also has 25 walks in 36 games. His 39 strikeouts are an issue and could prevent him from hitting for average at higher levels where the pitching will pick apart the holes. Defensively, he’s stiff as a middle infielder but the power will play at first base or maybe even left field. He might eventually become a platoon or part-time player in The Show but that’s still a crazy increase in value from a year ago.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a trip through the minors league systems of the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Padres and Astros.

Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: With 20-year-old outfielder Ronald Acuna now in the Majors with the Braves, Soto is now the most exciting outfield prospect in the game — surpassing his better known org mate Victor Robles. The 19-year-old outfielder is an exceptionally gifted hitter who has an extremely mature approach at the plate that is somewhat similar to Toronto’s phenom, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Soto might actually be in double-A by now had he not lost most of last year to injury. There really isn’t much that he doesn’t do well. He has a .367 career average and is hitting .380 in 2018 split between two A-ball levels. He’s shown an exceptional eye with 24 walks and 17 strikeouts in 28 games. And he’s no singles hitter; 11 of his 41 hits have gone over the outfield fence — and he has a total of 23 extra base hits. He also hits left-handed pitching with four homers and a batting average just shy of .500 in 31 at-bats this year. If Bryce Harper leaves Washington after this year, this is the player that’s going to soften the blow.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we look at a sleeper prospect behind the plate for the Cubs, a first baseman that could impact the playoff race for the Mets, an outfielder that could help fill in the gaping hole in left field for the Astros, and another intriguing arm in the Rays system.

Miguel Amaya, C, Cubs: If you like deep, deep sleepers then keep an eye on Amaya, who could be developing into an intriguing offensive-minded catcher if the early season returns are a sign of things to come. Signed back in 2015 for $1.25 million, the 19-year-old athlete was assigned to full-season ball in just his second season in North America. Amaya is hitting .279 and showing excellent power. Nine of his 17 hits have gone for extra bases (including three home runs). Perhaps more impressively, he’s shown a good eye and has eight walks to go with 13 strikeouts. Defensively, he’s caught just two of 21 runners attempting to steal and he has a lot of work to do behind the plate. It will be interesting to see how the young backstop holds up to the rigors of a full season of catching, although the club has also been giving him some time at first base.

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The Prospect Stock Watch is back for another year. The first month of baseball is dwindling down and with all the weather cancellations it’s really flown by. Let’s have a look at some of the prospects that are off to either fast or slow starts to the year.

Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres: San Diego has been extremely aggressive with this 19-year-old star-in-the-making. He’s shown uncanny in-game power for a teenager and went deep 22 times last year as an 18-year-old hitter in A-ball. The jump to double-A has been quite the challenge for him, though. He appeared at that level last year for 14 games and posted a strikeout rate of 30%. This year… another 14 games so far and another strikeout rate at 30%. Perhaps just as alarming, Tatis Jr.’s walk rate is hovering around a minuscule 2.5%. And he’s even stopped running. After stealing 29 bases a year ago, he has yet to even make an attempt to run. In hindsight, the decision to skip him over high-A ball may have been a mistake. But the good news is that he’s still young, still loaded with tools and should eventually rebound. It just might take him another two to three months to really adjust to the more advanced pitching in the upper levels of the minors.

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To say things have gone very, very well for the Los Angeles Angels so far in 2018 would be an understatement. The club sits quite handily in first place in the American League West division and features two of the most exciting players in all of baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. The one thing the club hasn’t done exceptionally well in recent memory, though, is develop players. It’s had a bottom third system for quite some time now.

But things are beginning to change for the better. I looked at the Angels Top 10 prospects list back in mid-March and identified a list that was slowly evolving into an impressive collection of players. Today, I’m going to take an early peek at how the top prospect, Jahmai Jones, is doing… along with one player I identified as a “just-missed” sleeper in pitcher Griffin Canning and a third player that I didn’t talk about at all in Taylor Ward.

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The AL East is loaded with talent at both the big league and minor league levels. And the minor league talent is well-distributed throughout each club’s system from top to bottom. Most clubs, with Boston potentially being the anomaly, could receive significant impacts from their systems in 2018.

Previous Reviews:
AL West Top 10s
NL West Top 10s
NL Central Top 10s
AL Central Top 10s
NL East Top 10s

2018 Arrivals:
4. Jake Bauers | 1B/OF | 2018 Level: AAA
5. Willy Adames | 3B | 2018 Level: AAA
9. Justin Williams | OF | 2018 Level: AAA

2019 Arrivals:
1. Brent Honeywell | SP | 2018 Level: Injured
7. Nick Solak | 2B | 2018 Level: AA

2020 and Beyond:
2. Brendan McKay | 1B/SP | 2018 Level: A
3. Jesus Sanchez | OF | 2018 Level: A+
6. Joshua Lowe | OF | 2018 Level: A+
8. Lucius Fox | SS | 2018 Level: A+
10. Austin Franklin | SP | 2018 Level: A

Other Names to Know:
Sleeper: Ronaldo Hernandez, C
Beyond the Top 10 Help in 2018: Yonny Chirinos, SP

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