A four-pitch lefty taken fourth overall in the 2008 draft, Brian Matusz shredded minor league bats during his pro debut — in 113 innings split between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, the San Diego star whiffed 9.5 batters per nine frames, walked 2.5 per nine and compiled a 3.02 FIP. Matusz reached the Charm City less than a year after he and the Orioles agreed on a major league contract worth a little more than $3.4 million. He placed fifth on Baseball America’s list of the best farm talents in the game prior to 2010, and Matusz recently ranked #44 in Dave Cameron’s Trade Value series. Suffice it to say, Matusz comes with quite the prospect pedigree.

While there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll emerge as a valuable commodity to the O’s and fantasy owners alike, Matusz holds a 5.11 ERA through his first 32 starts at the big league level. Now that the 23-year-old has pitched at the highest level for a little more than a year, this seems like a good time to examine what the former Torero needs to do to avoid getting gored by hitters.

Matusz has 7.12 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 in 174.1 innings pitched. While he showed slight ground ball tendencies during his short stay in the minors (48.1 GB%), the 6-5 southpaw has gotten grounders just 35.4% of the time in the majors. That has led to his giving up 1.08 homers per nine innings, despite a home run per fly ball rate (8.5%) that’s below the 10-11% MLB average. All of those fly balls are concerning, given that Camden Yards increased the rate at which flies turn into souvenirs by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. If Matusz had given up home runs on fly balls at an average rate (11%) on the road and 13% at home, he would have served up over a homer and a half per nine innings instead.

In a couple of other respects, however, Matusz has been unlucky. He’s got a .331 BABIP, which is very high for any starter, much less an extreme fly ball pitcher. While the flies that aren’t caught are generally quite harmful, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. Matusz’s BABIP on flies is .165, while the AL average is closer to .140. He also has a .781 BABIP on line drives, compared to the .720-.730 AL average. We don’t yet have enough information to say whether that’s noise or something more significant, but odds are his BABIP falls.

His rate of stranding runners on base (68.6%) my creep into the low-70’s, too — based on this formula developed by Dave Studeman, Matusz’s LOB rate should be closer to 71%. Overall, Matusz’s expected 4.65 FIP (xFIP), based on his rate of K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is nearly a half-run lower than his actual ERA.

Matusz has gone to his 90-91 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, adding in a low-80’s changeup (19%), a mid-70’s curveball (10%) and a low-80’s slider (8%). That expansive repertoire has garnered swinging strikes at a near-average clip (8.3%). He’s putting plenty of pitches within the strike zone — 54.3% last year (49.3% MLB average in ’09) and 49.2% this season (46.8% MLB average). Opponents are making contact with those in-zone offerings just 85.5% (87-88% MLB average). However, they’re getting the bat on the ball often when swinging at pitches thrown off the plate. Matusz’s O-Contact rate was 65.7% last season (61.7% MLB average in ’09) and it’s 73.9% in 2010 (66.6% MLB average).

Against fellow lefties, Matusz is a monster (11.47 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.18 xFIP). Right-handers, by contrast, aren’t trembling at the prospect of facing him (5.93 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 5.06 xFIP). Check out his whiff rates by pitch type versus lefties and righties, from TexasLeaguers.com:

Keep in mind that the sample sizes aren’t massive here. That being said, opposite-handed hitters haven’t been fooled near as much, especially against Matusz’s fastball.

Brian Matusz remains a keeper-league favorite, but he’ll have to overcome his fly ball proclivities and find a way to make righties come up empty more often to take the next step in his career.

James McDonald, Pirates (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

I took an in-depth look at McDonald a couple of weeks before the Dodgers shipped the lanky right-hander to the Bucs (along with OF prospect Andrew Lambo) in exchange for reliever Octavio Dotel. The article’s main point still stands:

At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome.

However, McDonald’s career prospects brightened considerably following that deadline deal. In L.A., he was an out-of-favor option for the back of the rotation. In Pittsburgh, he’s arguably the most talented arm on the staff. The 25-year-old has impressed his new club so far, posting a 20/4 K/BB ratio and surrendering five runs in 17.2 innings pitched. He’s sitting 92-93 MPH with his fastball, mixing in a sharp 12-to-6 curve and a fading changeup.

Don’t get carried away — it’s just three starts, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection (7.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.77 FIP) isn’t spectacular. But McDonald now has a clear shot at regular starts, and he’s young and gifted enough to garner interest in NL-only leagues.

Pedro Alvarez, Pirates (24%)

The second overall pick in the 2008 draft boasts excellent secondary skills, and he’s taking and raking so far in the majors. Alvarez is batting .255/.339/.453 in 218 plate appearances, walking 11.5% of the time and posting a .198 Isolated Power. That’s good for a .348 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. Pedro’s powerful cuts have come with plenty of whiffs, though — he’s just shy of Mark Reynolds territory with a 35.9% K rate and a 68% contact rate.

Still, as Reynolds, Adam Dunn and other hitters with Herculean pop prove, strikeouts don’t preclude a batter from being highly successful. This 23-year-old Vanderbilt product might not top the .250 range, but his patience and power make him worth a roster spot in mixed leagues.

Considering that Cincy sits a game up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and has a three-in-four-shot of making the playoffs according to CoolStandings, chances are we’re going to experience a Red October for the first time since 1995. While the Big Red Machine doesn’t have a stealth submarine on hand, the club does hope that the mended Edinson Volquez can be a secret weapon down the stretch. Six starts into his comeback, Volquez is displaying his typical bat-missing ability while understandably showing some rust as well.

The former DVD member scuffled in big cameos with the Texas Rangers from 2005-2007, striking out 6.2 batters per nine innings, walking 4.7 per nine and serving up 1.6 HR/9. His xFIP was 5.34. But he broke out upon being dealt to the Reds (along with Danny Herrera) for Josh Hamilton in December of 2007. Volquez posted a 3.88 xFIP in 196 innings during his first foray in the NL, with 9.46 K/9 and 4.27 BB/9. He got swinging strikes 11% of the time (8.4-8.6% MLB average recently), with a 73.8% contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Edinson’s brilliant work was worth 4.3 wins.

Unfortunately, Volquez would make just nine starts the following year. He wasn’t near the same dominant arm, putting up rates of 8.52 K/9, 5.8 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP in 49.2 frames. His swinging strike (10%) and contact (74.8%) figures remained stellar, but he just couldn’t locate. Volquez placed only 41.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average that year), compared to 49.6% in 2008 (51.1% MLB average). As a percentage of the big league average, his zone rate went from 97.1 in ’08 to a paltry 84.2 in ’09. Volquez was placed on the DL with lower back spasms in mid-May, but the big blow came after an aborted one-inning start against the Cards on June 1st. He needed Tommy John Surgery, as well as a repair of his flexor mass tendon.

Volquez’s rehab drew national headlines in April, as he was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for Clomid, an estrogen-blocking drug banned by Major League Baseball. Since he was out of action, the suspension cost Volquez cash (a little more than $130,000) but not actual game time. In 31 innings pitched between High-A Lynchburg and Triple-A Louisville, Volquez compiled a 28/8 K/BB ratio and surrendered just five runs.

The 27-year-old got the big league call in mid-July and has tossed 29.2 innings so far. Volquez has struck out over a batter per inning (9.1 K/9), with a 12.3% swinging strike rate and a 69.6% contact rate. But he’s also walking the yard (6.37 BB/9), the result of putting just 36% of his pitches in the zone (46.9% MLB average). That’s 76.8% of the big league average. Overall, his xFIP is 4.69.

While the sample size is small, Volquez has gotten grounders 56% of the time (44.5% prior to this season). Changes in ground ball rate gain some significance at 150 batters faced, so that’s worth watching for a guy making his home starts in a park that inflates HR production by 22 percent for lefty batters and 35 percent for right-handers.

In terms of stuff, Volquez is sitting at a typical 93-94 MPH with his fastball and getting whiffs 9% of the time with the pitch (6% MLB average). It appears as though he has nearly scrapped his slider in favor of a 77 MPH curveball, which is garnering whiffs 15% (11.6% MLB average). Volquez’s low-80’s changeup has a 20.5% whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). Of course, finding home plate has been an issue — the fastball has a 58.7% strike rate (60-62% MLB average), the curve sits at 50.4% (58%) and the change 55.6% (60.7%).

Given that we’re dealing with a month’s worth of starts, it’s best not to put a whole lot of stock in these numbers. But to this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool. Pitch F/X whiff and strike numbers from TexasLeaguers.

When the Atlanta Braves selected Mike Minor seventh overall in the 2009 draft, some prospect pundits labeled the pick an uncharacteristically conservative move by an organization known for favoring high-upside prep players. A Vanderbilt product, Minor was regarded as a four-pitch lefty without a plus offering. He was expected to reach the majors in short order, but his ceiling wasn’t considered commensurate with what’s anticipated from a single-digit pick.

A little more than a year later, Minor has proven to be a fast mover. With Kris Medlen (UCL tear) possibly headed for Tommy John surgery, Minor will make his big league debut this coming Monday against the Houston Astros. But that’s not all — after a dominant minor league season, Minor has talent evaluators re-thinking his long-term potential.

At the time Minor was drafted, Baseball America described him as a soft-tossing southpaw who wouldn’t fool many pro hitters. Given the Commodores connection, Minor elicited comparisons to Jeremy Sowers:

Like Sowers, Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch. His other strongest attribute could be his pickoff move, a weapon he broke out repeatedly against Cuba last summer. Minor’s future may depend on his breaking stuff. He formerly threw a slider as his primary breaking ball, and at times it was an above-average pitch with depth. He showed he could throw the pitch for strikes or bury it. Minor added a solid curveball this fall and threw four pitches for strikes this spring, but some scouts think the curve has sapped some of the life off the rest of his offerings.

Minor signed for an above-slot $2.42 million bonus, then tossed 14 scoreless in the Low-A South Atlantic League with a 17/0 K/BB ratio and one run allowed. He also got 16.2 innings of work in the Arizona Fall League, surrendering 10 runs with a 12/6 K/BB. According to BA’s J.J. Cooper, Minor averaged about 90.9 MPH with his heater in the AFL and topped out at 93.8 MPH.

In 2010, the 22-year-old opened the season with Mississippi in the Double-A Southern League. He was hardly the finesse, control-oriented hurler that most anticipated — Minor whiffed 109 batters in 87 innings pitched (11.3 K/9), walking 3.5 per nine and giving up 0.8 HR/9. While his 4.03 ERA didn’t stand out, that was due in large part to a .371 batting average on balls in play. Minor’s park-and-luck adjusted FIP, according to Minor League Splits, was 3.29.

It has been more of the same since he was promoted to the Triple-A International League — Minor’s got 10 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and a 2.97 adjusted FIP in 33.1 frames with the Gwinnett Braves. He has been neutral in terms of ground ball/fly ball tendencies, with a 44.1 GB% between the two levels. Per Minor League Splits, Minor’s pitching at Mississippi and Gwinnett translates to 8.1 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 at the major league level.

It’s not just the numbers that are better than anticipated. Minor’s once-modest fastball is popping the mitt with more gusto. Last month, BA’s Jim Callis described the changes in Minor’s stuff:

He’s ditched the curve, and his stuff is sharper. I don’t think anyone was anticipating his velo jump, not even the Braves, but I got several reports he’s hitting 95-96 mph consistently. As a result, he’s not quite throwing as many strikes as he used to. For me, he’s more of a No. 3 starter now [with] a chance to be a 2 if he maintains the velo and improves his control. When he was drafted, I thought he was a No. 4 at best.

With more zip on his fastball, as well as a quality changeup and solid slider, Minor ranked got an honorable mention on BA’s mid-season top 25 prospects list.

Given the large disparity between Minor’s college and pro scouting reports, it will be interesting to see if he maintains his new found velocity over the long haul. The spike in punch outs has come with more walks, but the trade-off has certainly been a net positive. At the very least, we can safely, thankfully leave that Sowers comp in the rear view mirror. Minor is worth picking up in most every league, as his spruced-up stuff gives him bat-missing ability few thought he’d possess.

While Good Doctor is no longer on call, the Toronto Blue Jays still feature a youthful, talented starting rotation. Jays starters boast a collective 4.17 xFIP, a mark bested by only the Minnesota Twins among AL squads. The grizzled veteran of the group is 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who has impressed in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

In 125 innings pitched, Marcum has struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, walked 2.02 per nine and has a 3.24 ERA. Marcum’s xFIP is higher, though still sturdy, at 3.84. The righty gives up a lot of fly balls (38.8 GB% in 2010, 40.1 GB% during his career), and he has given up a home run on just 7.7% of fly balls hit against him. For comparison, his career rate is 11.4% and the MLB average is also around 11 percent. Odds are, that HR/FB figure will climb. But even so, Marcum has missed bats and limited the free passes.

Toronto’s third-round pick in the ’03 draft throws…well, what doesn’t he throw? Marcum has used his 87 MPH fastball less than 50% of the time, supplementing the pitch with a mid-80’s cutter, a mid-70’s curveball and a low-80’s changeup (some low-80’s sliders are sprinkled in, too). That repertoire, coupled with Marcum’s minuscule walk rate, screams “finesse.” That’s not the case, however. Despite not lighting up the radar gun, he’s employing the approach of a power pitcher.

Marcum’s stuff is fooling plenty of hitters. His swinging strike rate is 10.8% (8.4% MLB average), which is tied for seventh among MLB starters with teammate Brandon Morrow. His overall contact rate is 76.1% (81% MLB average), ninth among starters.

Not surprisingly, Marcum’s fastball doesn’t garner many whiffs — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, batters have swung and missed just 4.1% of the time that he throws the pitch (that’s whiffs out of total pitches thrown; the MLB average is around six percent). The rest of his pitches have above-average whiff rates, though. His curve has a 12% whiff%, slightly above the 11.6% MLB average, and his cutter’s causing hitters to come up empty 12.2% (8.4%). But it’s his changeup that’s really flummoxing the opposition. Marcum’s getting whiffs 26.9% of the time that he pulls the string, compared to the 12.6% big league average.

With so few walks, Marcum must be pounding the strike zone, right? Nope. He has located just 42.7% of his pitches within the strike zone. The major league average is 47%. Rather, Marcum is adept at getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate — his 33% outside swing rate is well above the 28.9% MLB average and places ninth among starters. Per Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, batters have chased Marcum’s cutter 34.9% of the time (27.5% MLB average, according to THT’s Harry Pavlidis). That’s nothing compared to the changeup, however — they’re hacking at 53.2% of changeups thrown out of the strike zone (30.7% MLB average).

Marcum did serve a DL stint in early July with elbow inflammation, while also missing a start with a blister on his middle finger. The Jays might be playing for keeps in another division, but they’re squarely in no-man’s land in the AL East. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team take it easy with Marcum down the stretch. In the meantime, he’s plenty useful and is available in slightly more than one-quarter of Yahoo leagues.

Allen Craig, Cardinals (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

St. Louis’ eighth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Craig is a 6-2, 210 pound power hitter with dubious defensive skills. The 26-year-old was recently recalled by the Cards, and he’s expected to spot for Jon Jay against lefties in right field. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Tweets that Craig will also get some starts at third base, now that David Freese is set for season-ending surgery on his right ankle.

Craig posted a .304/.371/.506 line in 593 plate appearances at the Double-A level, with an 8.3% walk rate, a 17.5 K% and a .202 ISO. The California Golden Bear’s bat has been more ferocious in Triple-A — a .322/.380/.551 triple-slash in 842 PA. Craig has an 8.1 BB%, a 19.9 K% and a .229 ISO in the Pacific Coast League. He’s not an especially patient hitter, though he can certainly put a charge into the ball.

What should be expected of Craig at the big league level? Minor League Splits shows that his hitting at Memphis in 2009 translates to a .278/.319/.440 line in the majors, and his 2010 performances equates to .277/.330/.452. CHONE has a similar projection (.276/.333/.448). While he won’t work a lot of walks and he’ll try Tony La Russa’s patience with his glove work, Craig looks like a cheap source of pop in NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Braves (5%)

Atlanta picked up Ankiel from the Royals at the trade deadline (along with Kyle Farnsworth) for LHP Tim Collins, OF Gregor Blanco and RHP Jesse Chavez. The 31-year-old will take over center field for the club while Nate McLouth tries to erase all memories of the past four months, Men in Black style.

Not that Ankiel is having himself a banner season, either. He missed over two-and-a-half months with a right quadriceps strain, just the latest in a litany of ailments that includes a torn left patellar tendon in ’06, a sore knee, shoulder and a sports hernia in ’08 and Achilles tendinitis, a groin strain and a shoulder injury suffered after colliding with the outfield fence in ’09. Ankiel’s got a .262/.319/.456 line in 113 PA so far, with a spike in ground ball rate (50.7%), K rate (32.7%) and pop ups (22.7 IF/FB%) masked by a .343 BABIP. Given the teeny sample, I wouldn’t put much emphasis on those totals.

ZiPS pegs Ankiel as a .254/.310/.458 hitter for the rest of 2010, while CHONE throws out a less sunny .247/.302/.445. There’s little certainty with the Braves’ new lefty slugger. He’s worth a gamble in NL-only formats, but Ankiel’s potential payoff isn’t worth the headaches for mixed leaguers.

The Boston Red Sox acquired C Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Texas Rangers for 1B Chris McGuiness, RHP Roman Mendez, a player to be named later and cash.

Remember when Saltalamacchia was the key prospect acquired by the Rangers in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira trade that also netted Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz? Now, the switch-hitter’s future is murky following injury issues and problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher, a la Rube Baker in Major League II.

Salty has struggled in the majors to this point, batting .251/.313/.388 in 874 PA. His wOBA is .306, and his wRC+ is 82. While the 25-year-old hasn’t been a total hacker, his 8.1% walk rate is a bit below the big league average, and he has punched out 31.1% of the time. The 6-4, 235 pound specimen hasn’t pounded the ball, either, with a .137 Isolated Power. Behind the dish, Sean Smith’s Total Zone pegs him as five runs below average per 1,200 innings. Salty missed time in 2008 with a forearm strain, and then he had to undergo right shoulder surgery in 2009 for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. This spring, he battled a back injury.

At Triple-A Oklahoma City this season, Salty had a .244/.326/.445 line in 270 PA. He’s walked 9.3% of the time, punched out 25.2% and posted a .201 ISO. While it’s hard to evaluate this trade without knowing the significance of the PTBNL, Saltalamacchia looks like a worthwhile reclamation project for Boston. He’s still relatively young and he’s under team control for several years to come, which makes him a possible alternative to pending free agent Victor Martinez.

Salty’s fantasy value is nil for the rest of the season. His bat no longer looks special, and he must prove durable while not embarrassing himself defensively. Don’t totally write him off, though. The offensive bar is set low for backstops (.251/.324/.383 MLB average), and he’s got enough offensive ability to clear that mark if he can avoid face-planting in the other aspects of catching.

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired C Chris Snyder, SS Pedro Ciriaco and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for SS Bobby Crosby, RHP D.J. Carrasco and RF Ryan Church.

Pittsburgh picked up Snyder in what amounts to an Arizona salary dump — the only semi-useful item the D-Backs got back was Carrasco, a middle reliever non-tendered by the White Sox last winter. Snyder, 29, will make $5.75 million in 2011, and he’s got a $6.75 million club option for 2012 ($750,000 buyout). Arizona sent $3 million to the ‘Burgh as part of the trade.

With the Pirates, Snyder will take over as the starting catcher. Ryan Doumit, due off the DL soon, will only catch occasionally while getting re-acclimated to first base and the corner outfield. ZiPS doesn’t see a huge difference between the two from an offensive standpoint (.339 rest-of-season wOBA for Snyder, .333 for Doumit). This is a quality move for the Bucs, however, given the modest financial investment involved and the spare parts surrendered in the trade. Snyder’s not known as a defensive stalwart and his 2009 season was marred by a back ailment, but Doumit’s injury history is even more checkered — he tore his left hamstring in 2006, sprained his left wrist and ankle in 2007, fractured his left thumb in 2008, suffered a right wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 and has dealt with concussion-like symptoms in 2010.

Snyder’s owned in just five percent of Yahoo leagues right now. He’s got solid secondary skills for a catcher, and ZiPS projects him to bat .240/.345/.417 for the rest of the year. You could do worse if you need some help behind the plate.

According to Tom Krasovic of AOL Fanhouse, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will call up OF Peter Bourjos from Triple-A Salt Lake. Bourjos might not crack the lineup on a regular basis, but let’s take a look at his long-term fantasy value.

Bourjos, 23, was selected in the tenth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The Arizona prep product intrigued scouts with his scorching speed and ability to cover wide swaths of territory, and the Angels opened up the check book to give him an above-slot $325,000 signing bonus. Bourjos batted .292/.354/.472 in 279 Pioneer League plate appearances during his ’06 pro debut, stealing 13 bases and getting caught five times. Following the season, Baseball America called him an “easy, graceful runner” and said he had more power than his 6-1, 180 pound frame suggested, but BA also called his strike-zone control “crude.”

Unfortunately, Bourjos wouldn’t get a full season’s worth of reps in 2007 to work out the kinks in his plate discipline. The righty batter suffered a left hand injury that he initially tried to play through, but he finally gave in and had surgery to repair a ruptured ligament in May. In 270 PA in the Low-A Midwest League, Bourjos put up a .274/.335/.426 line, with a 7.4% walk rate, a 22.4 K% and a .152 ISO. He nabbed 19 bases, though he was caught stealing nine times as well. Talent evaluators continued to question whether Bourjos’ bat would play at the upper levels of the minors. “His approach,” BA said, “vacillates from at-bat to at-bat, he’s busy in his setup and he often lacks balance through his swing.”

The next season, Bourjos was bumped up to the High-A California League. He hit .295/.326/.444 in 545 PA, and he was a monster on the base paths (50-for-60 in SB attempts, good for an 83.3% success rate). Bourjos just about never walked (3.5 BB%), while K’ing 18.9% and posting a .149 ISO. The Cal League is a great place to hit, so Bourjos’ park-and-luck-adjusted line was a little less impressive at .280/.311/.429. While again praising Bourjos’ plus defense and base-stealing talents, BA said:

There are still questions about Bourjos’ bat. He has a funky swing and tough he showed improvement, he still chases pitches out of the zone and rarely walks. He’ll need to show a much more patient approach to realize his potential as a leadoff hitter.

In 2009, Bourjos made some strides in terms of not getting himself out. The speedster slashed .281/.354/.423 in 504 Double-A Texas League PA, drawing ball four 9.7%, whiffing 17.6% and compiling a .142 ISO. On the bases, he was 32-for-44 (a 72.3% success rate). A ligament tear in his left wrist necessitated off-season surgery, but that didn’t put much of a damper on a season in which he progressed at the plate. Baseball America was most enthusiastic about Bourjos’ prospect status, ranking him #97 on the publication’s top 100 list. John Sickels graded him as a B- talent. Bourjos didn’t make Keith Law’s top 100.

At Salt Lake of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Bourjos has hit .314/.364/.498 in 455 PA, with 27 SB in 32 tries. His park-and-luck adjusted line, by contrast, is .289/.341/.467. Those strike zone gains didn’t make the trip with him to the PCL, as Bourjos as a 5.3 BB%. He has struck out 18.9% and has a .184 ISO, the product of lots of triples (twelve) and a park-aided 13 home runs.

Chances are, Bourjos would struggle mightily if given everyday ABs in the big leagues. His major league equivalent line is .255/.294/.401 according to Minor League Splits, and CHONE projects him for a .255/.300/.375 showing. It’s worth noting, however, that Sean Smith’s Total Zone adores Bourjos’ defense. That could come into play, considering the Angels’ outfielders have been a collective 18 runs below average, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Bourjos isn’t likely to have much fantasy value right now. His wheels make him attractive to fantasy owners in the long-term, and his run-saving D gives him a good chance to carve out a starting role in the not-too-distant future. It’d surely be appreciated, though, if he could stop hacking so much.

Injury-ravaged and forced to rely upon the likes of Jeremy Hermida and Darnell McDonald, the Boston Red Sox outfield hasn’t stood out at the plate. Sox fly catchers have a collective .332 wOBA, fifth in the American League. Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) has logged all of 45 plate appearances this season, while Mike Cameron (abdomen) also spent significant time on the DL. Ellsbury’s due back soon, and Cameron has been back in the fray for a while. But Boston decided to give Ryan Kalish a promotion yesterday, calling up the top prospect and DFA’ing Hermida.

A New Jersey prep product, Kalish was drafted in the ninth round back in 2006. The two-way player also starred on the grid iron and the hard court, and BA passed along a Chuck Norris Facts-esque tidbit that Kalish didn’t swing and miss at a single pitch as a high school senior. Though the athletic lefty batter had a strong commitment to the University of Virginia, the Sox coaxed him into turning pro with a $600,000 signing bonus.

Kalish didn’t take the field much in 2006 and 2007 — he signed August of ’06 for that above-slot bonus, then suffered a broken hamate bone in his right wrist on a HBP in July of ’07. The injury required surgery that September. Still, Kalish impressed, hitting .317/.406/.472 in 161 PA spent mostly in the New York-Penn League while stealing 20 bases in 23 attempts. BA commended his advanced plate discipline for a young, inexperienced farm talent, while also calling him a plus runner and throwing out a J.D. Drew comp.

In 2008, Kalish began the year rehabbing in extended spring training. After that, he spent most of the season in the low-A South Atlantic League while earning a promotion to High-A California League late in the year. He posted a .273/.365/.363 combined line in 502 PA, displaying keen strike zone awareness (12.2 BB%), K’ing 22.9% and rarely driving the ball (.090 ISO). That ’08 wrist injury played a prominent role in the lack of thump — BA said he “didn’t turn the bat loose like he had in the past, which had a pronounced effect on his power.” On the base paths, Kalish was successful in 19 of 23 tries.

Two-thousand nine would prove to be the 6-1, 205 pounder’s breakout year. In 580 PA divided between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, Kalish batted .279/.364/.457. He stayed selective at the plate (11.7 BB%), but also sliced his strikeout rate slightly (21.1 K%) and hit with more authority (.178 ISO). Kalish was a high-percentage base stealer, too, with 21 SB in 27 attempts.

Kalish entered 2010 as the 96th-best prospect in the game according to Baseball America. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect, and ESPN’s Keith Law placed the 22-year-old 86th on his personal top 100 list. Law noted positive changes in Kalish’s swing since he signed with the club:

The Red Sox had to do a lot of work to help him find a consistent swing. Unfortunately, he had to do that work while recovering hand and wrist strength after the injury. He’s become a lot stronger since then, and his pitch recognition has also improved. The drift in his swing that affected his output in high school is gone, with much better weight transfer and good hip rotation, so while he’s not the quick, athletic teenager the Red Sox signed, he’s now a more polished overall hitter who’s already coming into some power and may add more.

Since then, Kalish has only improved his prospect standing. Starting the season back in Portland and then earning a call-up to Triple-A Pawtucket of the International League, Kalish has a .294/.382/.502 triple-slash in 343 PA. Patience (12.2 BB%), contact (18.1 K%), power (.208 ISO), speed (25 for 28 in SBs) — he has shown it all.

Kalish doesn’t have mammoth pop, and he’s now considered above-average in the speed department rather than a true burner (BA calls him a 55 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale). But he possesses an exceptionally well-rounded skill-set that makes him someone to target in keeper leagues. As for the present, it’s hard to say how prominent he is in the Red Sox’ plans. Will Ellsbury be 100% when he returns? Is Cameron only going to play semi-regularly as he continues to battle through injury problems of his own? It’s possible that there are enough open ABs there for Kalish to carve out a role. Keep an eye on how frequently Kalish cracks Boston’s lineup — he could be a nice late-season pickup.

With Ryan Ludwick headed to San Diego as part of a three-team swap that netted St. Louis Jake Westbrook, Jon Jay’s role with the Cards will expand. The 25-year-old’s big league career is off to a scorching start — in 130 plate appearances, Jay’s bat has already been worth +11 runs. What’s the Chief Justice’s fantasy value? Let’s take a look.

Jay was selected out of Miami in the second round of the 2006 amateur draft. At the time, Baseball America described the lefty hitter as “a classic tweener outfielder who doesn’t profile as an everyday player on a championship club.” BA lauded his plate approach, but lamented the lack of “leverage and loft” in his swing. Jay began his pro career in the Low-A Midwest League that summer, and he did what you’d expect a second-team All American to do against less experienced hurlers — he raked (.342/.416/.462 in 268 PA).

Unfortunately, Jay wouldn’t get much of a chance to build upon that robust beginning — in 2007, he hit the DL three times. Jay was shelved twice with a shoulder injury and also became a spectator due to a wrist ailment. His hitting suffered, as Jay put up a .265/.328/.387 line in 253 PA split between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Texas League. He walked in 6.3% of his PA, while striking out 19.6% and posting a .122 ISO. BA noted that scouts were skeptical about his ability to hit at the upper levels of the minors, disliking his “quirky hand pumps and bat waggles at the plate.”

The next season, however, Jay’s prospect status recovered. In 491 PA spent mostly in the Texas League (he got a late-season promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League), the Founding Father batted .312/.382/.463. Jay’s walk rate climbed to a decent 9.2%, whiffing 13% and improving his ISO to 151. He returned to the PCL in 2009, where hit slashed .281/.338/.394 in 564 PA. Prior to getting the big league call-up in late April, Jay hit .321/.394/.491 in 191 PCL PA. His overall line in 819 PA at the Triple-A level is .295/.356/.424, with a seven percent rate of free passes taken, a 13.2 K% and a .129 ISO.

Jay’s got a smoldering .382/.433/.583 big league line and a .425 wOBA, but it’s wise not to get overly excited. Putting aside that more than 43% of his balls put in play have fallen for hits so far, Jay’s minor league track record isn’t all that distinguished. He’s not especially patient at the dish, and as his .131 league ISO and near-50% ground ball rate on the farm suggest, his power potential is limited. With St. Louis, he might eventually end up platooned with Allen Craig — Jay’s career line against lefties in the minors is .259/.336/.349 (Craig’s is .303/.358/.542).

That’s not to say that Jay is without his uses, as Sean Smith’s Total Zone suggests Jay would be a plus defender in an outfielder corner, and CHONE projects that he’ll hit .288/.347/.425 in the majors. For fantasy purposes, Jay looks more like a solid major leaguer who’ll need a caddy against same-handed pitching than a breakout star.