Since the summer of 2008, righty Daniel Hudson has navigated his way from fifth-round draft pick to ace of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ staff (though Ian Kennedy might quibble with that designation). Granted, in a post-Dan Haren rotation that may include the likes of Joe Saunders, Zach Duke and Armando Galarraga, that’s like saying "fastest Molina brother" or "smartest Kardashian." But after the D-Backs acquired Hudson from the White Sox at last year's trade deadline, the Old Dominion product dominated.

Entering 2011, Hudson has fantasy helium — according to MockDraftCentral, he ranks 34th among starting pitchers and 130th overall in Average Draft Position (ADP), placing him alongside pitchers such as Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and Brett Anderson. How good can Hudson be? Let’s break it down.

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Jimmy Rollins is entering a pivotal season in his career. For years, the switch-hitter was a power/speed dynamo who ranked near the top of pre-season shortstop rankings. But, at 32, Rollins faces a contract year coming off a season sabotaged by calf and hamstring injuries (he had cysts removed from his left wrist this offseason, too). Rollins’ ailments limited him to less than 400 plate appearances in 2010, the first season that he logged less than 600 PAs in the majors.

Since his 2006-2008 peak at the plate, during which he hit .284/.342/.485 (15 percent above the MLB average, once park and league factors are accounted for), Rollins has tumbled to a .248/.304/.406 triple-slash over the 2009-2010 seasons (11 percent below average). Can we expect better from a more Zen J-Roll in 2011, or will he continue to fade?

One of the biggest factors in Rollins’ offensive decline is his batting average on balls in play — his BABIP over the ’09 and ’10 seasons was .249. That’s fourth-lowest among qualified big league hitters over the past two years, and well below his career .290 mark. And much of Rollins’ BABIP downturn has come on grounders. From 2009-10, he had a .178 BABIP on ground balls, compared to a .225 career average and a .235 average for NL hitters. That ’09-’10 ground ball BABIP was sixth-lowest among MLB hitters, placing slightly ahead of speed luminaries like Casey Kotchman, Lyle Overbay and Jose Lopez. Wait, what?

Despite top-shelf speed, Rollins has generally posted below-average BABIP figures on grounders during his career. But recently, his performance on choppers has been commensurate with players whose 60-yard dash times are measured by sun dials, not stop watches. Could those aforementioned lower body injuries be sapping Rollins of some of his foot speed?

Rollins has remained a high-percentage base stealer, swiping 31 bags and getting caught seven times in 2009 and going 17-for-18 on the base paths this past year. But he is attempting to steal bases less often. According to Baseball-Reference, J-Roll took off on 16.6 percent of his stolen base opportunities (defined as a situation in which a runner is on first or second and the next base is open) from 2006-2008. That dropped to 15.6 percent in ’09, and 12.2 percent in ’10.

In terms of other base running aspects (such taking an extra base or advancing on wild pitches and passed balls), Rollins remains above average: Baseball Prospectus’ base running stats show him adding around two runs of value in non-SB base running last year. It doesn’t seem like his wheels are shot.

Perhaps in an effort to conserve his legs, Rollins is picking his spots to go full-bore on the bases. Those forty-plus steal seasons appear to be over. But if Rollins is healthy, it’s likely that his BABIP in grounders will perk up, and so should his line. ZiPS projects a .264/.323/.426 showing in 2011. Rollins’ go-go years may be behind him, but that offensive line, coupled with around 25 steals, still makes him one of the better options at a shallow position.

The first three slots in the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation are set — Johnny Cueto’s locked up long-term, Bronson Arroyo will keep on strumming Fenders and tossing benders after getting his own contract extension, and Edinson Volquez looks to polish his post-Tommy John stuff in front of paying crowds once his visa situation allows him to do so. But who will fill the fourth and fifth spots for the defending NL Central champs? Here’s a quick rundown of the candidates (listed in alphabetical order), along with their 2011 projections from Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS.

Homer Bailey

Oliver: 7.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.61 ERA
PECOTA: 7.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 ERA
ZiPS: 7.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

Bailey, a former top 10 prospect who took some beatings as a 21 and 22 year-old breaking into the majors, made considerable progress on the mound last season. The difference between his 2009 and 2010 ERAs was minuscule — 4.53 in ’09, and 4.46 in ’10 — but his xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, improved from 4.58 to 3.91. Bailey upped his K rate from 6.83 per nine to 8.26, and he pared his free passes from 4.13 per nine to 3.3.

That whiff rate may come down some this year — his swinging strike rate last season was just average (8.4 percent), and his contact rate (81.8%) was actually a percentage point above the big league norm. Plus, Bailey does come with durability concerns. He missed nearly three months last season with shoulder inflammation, from late May to mid-August. Out of minor league options, Bailey looks to be the favorite for the fourth rotation spot. Maybe he’ll never be a phenom, but he’s capable of posting an ERA better than the league average if he can avoid further injury woes.

Aroldis Chapman

Oliver (as RP): 9.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.91 ERA
PECOTA: 10.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.36 ERA
ZiPS (split role): 10.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.00 ERA

By all accounts, Chapman is headed to the bullpen to start the season. As the above projections suggest, the Cuban’s triple-digit heat will elicit lots of late swings; hitters might just want to plaster their bats on their shoulders and hope for ball four. Chapman made 13 starts and 25 relief appearances at AAA Louisville last year, punching out 11.6 per nine while walking nearly five, and then averaged nearly 100 MPH with his fastball out of the Reds pen while throwing the fastest recorded pitch in MLB history.

The 23-year-old lefty won’t figure into the back-of-the-rotation conversation without a change of heart by management, but he’s plenty capable of pushing incumbent closer Francisco Cordero aside. Cordero’s K rate has fallen four years running, a period during which his xFIP has climbed from 2.82 to 4.53.

Mike Leake

Oliver: 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.08 ERA
PECOTA: 5.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
ZiPS: 5.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.34 ERA

The eighth overall pick in the ’09 draft out of Arizona state, Leaked leaped right to the majors and proved to be a quality, if not terribly exciting, starting option. Throwing everything but a Ephus — two-seamers, sliders, curves, cutters, changeups — Leake had 5.92 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, a 50.2% ground ball rate and a 4.31 xFIP. His rookie season did end on a dour note, as he was placed on the DL in late August with shoulder fatigue. Leake didn’t throw another pitch after that, as Cincinnati played it safe and shut him down for the rest of the year.

Leake currently appears to be the sixth man for the Reds, behind Bailey and Wood, and GM Walt Jocketty said in February that Leake could end up in the bullpen rather than going to the minors to keep stretched out if he loses out on a rotation spot. Of course, no team’s one-through-five ends up staying perfectly healthy and productive — Leake is one sore elbow or shoulder away from regular rotation turns. He’s not going to miss many bats, but Leake’s ground ball tendencies aid him in a park where warning track flys often turn into round-trippers.

Sam LeCure

Oliver: 6.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.12 ERA
PECOTA: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.86 ERA
ZiPS: 6.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.00 ERA

LeCure, a 26-year-old with a four-pitch mix (high-80s fastball, upper-70s slider, low-70s curve, and a low-80s change), faces the longest odds of any pitcher listed here. In 48 MLB innings pitched last year, divided between starting and relief, LeCure had 6.94 K/9, 4.69 BB/9 and a 4.86 xFIP. The former Longhorn has sharper control of his limited stuff than that sample suggests, but his career minor league walk rate of three per nine is more decent than Maddux-esque.

LeCure did generate more grounders last season (54% at AAA, 45.6% with the Reds). Considering that Great American Ballpark increases home run production by 20 percent for left-handed hitters and 33 percent for righties, he’ll need to retain those gains to be much more than replacement-level flotsam.

Matt Maloney

Oliver: 6.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.43 ERA
PECOTA: 6.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.26 ERA
ZiPS: 6.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

As a lefty who relies on pinpoint control to compensate for a fastball that needs a strong backwind to reach the upper-80s on the gun, Maloney’s game is the antithesis of Chapman’s pure power. That said, the former Phillies prospect has 7.9 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in well over 400 innings at the Triple-A level. Maloney has performed adequately in 61.1 MLB innings divided between starting and relief over the past two years, with about six whiffs per nine innings, 1.9 BB/9 and a 4.70 xFIP. On a lot of teams, he’d have a good shot at pulling down a rotation spot. In Cincy, however, he’s a long shot looking to secure a bullpen spot for Opening Day.

All three projection systems have Maloney coughing up ample home runs, and dingers may well be a problem for the fly ball-centric 27-year-old. According to First Inning, Maloney’s ground ball rates have ranged from 40 to 45% at AAA, and he has induced grounders about 35% of the time in the big leagues. Maloney needs his exquisite control to limit multi-run long-ball damage.

Travis Wood

Oliver: 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.87 ERA
PECOTA: 6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.06 ERA
ZiPS: 7.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.64 ERA

A lithe left-hander who originally got scouts all hot under the polo shirt collar as high schooler throwing 95 MPH, Wood no longer touches that velocity but nonetheless looks like a good fantasy option poised to win the fifth starter’s gig. After posting rates of 8.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 3.23 FIP in an even 100 AAA frames, Wood got the major league call in July. While he averaged about 90 MPH with his gas, Wood’s cutter, change and curve enticed batters to expand their zones — his 32.8 outside swing percentage was well above the 29.3% MLB average. In 102.2 innings with the Reds, Wood struck out 7.54 hitters per nine innings and walked just 2.28 per nine on his way to a 3.51 ERA.

I said that Wood is a good fantasy option, but whether he’s a good value is another question. Wood’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (30.5 GB% in the majors), and his home run per fly ball rate (6.3%) figures to rise. So will his BABIP (.259 last year), though perhaps less than most given those aforementioned flyballing ways (fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders). If you draft Wood expecting an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood of four, you won’t be disappointed. Get caught up in his near no-no and mid-threes ERA, and you might end up pulling the trigger while better options are still on the board.

First baseman Carlos Pena revived his career in Tampa, transforming from a disappointing former top-10 draft pick who passed through Texas, Oakland, Detroit, the Bronx and Boston to an offensive force. From 2007-2009, Pena had a .252/.382/.553 batting line, with a .393 wOBA that tied him with Miguel Cabrera for 14th among qualified MLB hitters over that time frame.

Unfortunately, Pena’s free agent walk year wasn’t near as impressive: the lefty masher hit .196/.325/.407 in 2010, and his wOBA nosedived to a career-low .326. That’s a solid number for a slick-fielding shortstop or center fielder, but hardly sufficient for a player at a power position. The Chicago Cubs recently signed Pena to a one-year, $10 million deal, hoping that the 32-year-old keeps the Bleacher Bums at Wrigley busy with a bounce back performance.

What caused Pena’s quiet year at the plate, and is he primed for a comeback in Chicago? Let’s try to find out.

Pena’s plate patience wasn’t a source of concern, as his 26.6% rate of swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone was well below the 29.3% big league average. Not going all Francoeur at the plate leads to hitter’s counts. According to Baseball-Reference, Pena got ahead in the count against pitchers in 42.8% of his plate appearances. For comparison, the 2010 American League average was 35.5%. It’s no surprise, then, that Pena walked in 14.9% of his PA. Among qualified batters, only Daric Barton and Prince Fielder took a leisurely stroll to first base more often.

However, while Pena remained a walk machine, his power declined. A .211 Isolated Power is hardly poor, but that figure was well below Pena’s previous work with the Rays: a .345 ISO in 2007, .247 in 2008 and a .310 mark in 2009.

Pena rarely hit a ground ball during his first three years in Tampa, but that changed this past season. He grounded out just 33% from ’07 to ’09 (44% MLB average). In 2010, he chopped the ball earthward 44.9% of the time. That spike in worm burners certainly didn’t help Pena’s power output. Based on Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s website, here are Pena’s ground ball rates by pitch type since 2008 (the first year for which the site has data). To provide more context, I also included MLB ground ball averages by pitch type from The Hardball Times’ Harry Pavlidis:

Pena saw an across-the-board increase on grounders, hitting more breaking and offspeed stuff into the dirt than the average MLB batter. His grounder rate on fastballs, though still below the big league average, shot up considerably as well.

Pena has long been a dead pull hitter, sizzling many of the balls that he puts in play to the right side…

…and many of those extra grounders came on pulled pitches. Those power-sapping ground balls, coupled with a very low BABIP, made Pena a lousy pull hitter this past year:

From ’07 to ’09, Pena was a prodigious pull hitter. According to our new expanded splits section, his .555 wOBA when pulling over that period was sixth-best among big league batters. But this past year, his wOBA to the right side of the field was a full 40 points worse than the average lefty batter.

Pena’s performance when hitting to center also suffered compared to past years, with more grounders, less pop and a lower BABIP:

He fared very well when putting the ball in play to the opposite field, but keep in mind he rarely goes to the opposite field:

With few hits falling to the pull side and to center, Pena’s overall BABIP nosedived to .222. From 2007-2009, Pena’s BABIP was .283.

Pena, of course, is often subject to a defensive shift that moves fielders more toward his pull side. Over at The Baseball Analysts, Jeremy Greenhouse did find that shifted hitters on the whole have a lower BABIP than non-shifted hitters, and that Pena’s ground ball angle (he hits lots of grounders toward the second baseman) is particularly shift-worthy.

But, while there’s little reason to expect Pena’s BABIP to approach .300, it’s also unlikely that it will remain over 50 points below his career mark. His batting average is never going to be pretty, but he’s more apt to hit in the .230s-.240s next year than below the Mendoza Line.

The key for Pena is to keep the ball off the ground. Those ground balls hurt his power numbers, and they’re especially damaging for a slow-footed slugger subject to a defensive shift.

Happily, he is moving from a park that damages lefty power to one that boosts it considerably — according to StatCorner, Tropicana Field depresses HR production by 11 percent compared to a neutral park, while Wrigley pumps it up by 19 percent. There’s little chance that Pena produces like he did during his peak years in Tampa. But with better luck and a more favorable offensive environment, Pena’s triple-slash could look an awful lot like his career averages: .241/.351/.490. Maybe not “Holy Cow!” worthy, but not bad either.

How do you think Pena will fare in Chicago? Make sure to submit a 2011 projection here.

While the deal is not quite official, the San Diego Padres and the Boston Red Sox have agreed in principle to a swap that would send 1B Adrian Gonzalez to Beantown in exchange for RHP Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Reymond Fuentes and a PTBNL. Gonzalez, 28, will make just $6.2 million this upcoming season and is eligible for free agency after the 2011 campaign. Boston has a window that lasts until 2 p.m. Eastern Time Sunday to hammer out a contract extension with Gonzalez. The lefty slugger, who underwent right shoulder surgery in late October, must also pass a physical (CSNNE’s Sean McAdam Tweets that Gonzalez has already checked out medically).

While trading an elite talent like Gonzalez is painful for Padres fans, the club did get three Top 10 prospects back in the deal. For now, though, let’s focus on how the trade affects Gonzalez’s value.

A disciplined hitter with plus power, Gonzalez has managed to post sublime offensive stats despite taking cuts in a home ball park that’s death to all things lumber. Over the last three years, Gonzalez has batted .285/.387/.523, walking in 13.8% of his plate appearances and posting a .238 Isolated Power.

To give you an idea of how much of an impediment PETCO Park has been to Gonzalez, let’s use one of Baseball-Reference’s many stat head goodies. B-R has a feature that allows us to adjust a hitter’s offensive production for run environment (runs/game), league (AL or NL), and park. Here are Gonzalez’s triple-slash numbers from 2008-2010. The first column has his actual AVG/OBP/SLG stats over those seasons. The second shows his stats in a neutral offensive environment in the NL. And the third shows what his slash line might have looked like had he been playing for Boston.

B-R shows Fenway Park boosting overall offensive production by six percent. StatCorner has park factors by batter handedness, and the site has lefties getting a four percent bump. Homers aren’t easy to come by, but doubles are. By comparison, PETCO has a 91 Park Factor on Baseball-Reference (depressing offense by nine percent), and StatCorner shows the venue harming left-handed hitters 10 percent more than a neutral park.

It should be noted that Gonzalez isn’t your typical lefty power hitter: he crushes pitches to all fields. Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, here’s a spray chart showing where Gonzalez went deep in 2010:

This past year, he hit 13 home runs to left field (41.9%), six to center (19.4%) and 12 to right field (38.7%). Over the course of his major league career, Gonzalez has hit 36.3% of his dingers to left, 23.2% to center and 40.5% to the pull field.

Clearly, Gonzalez is an upper-echelon hitter. Getting out of PETCO’s clutches will only boost his fantasy value, which was already lofty to begin with. Over the past three years, Gonzalez has been part of an elite class of big league batters. His wOBA, adjusted for league and park factors, was 46% better than average (146 wRC+). Only Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Holliday, and Joe Mauer have better marks over that time frame, and Hanley Ramirez is tied with Gonzalez.

Should the trade become official, Gonzalez becomes an even more coveted fantasy option. Also, with Gonzalez taking over at first base, Kevin Youkilis will shift across the diamond and get a bump in value by regaining third base eligibility.

Gonzalez has been an offensive beast despite being shackled by PETCO. Now, we get to see what he’s capable of while swinging in a much more liberating Fenway Park.

Chris Sale, White Sox (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

Bobby Jenks‘ return from a right forearm injury has slowed, opening the door for Sale to snag saves in September. The 6-5, 170 pound beanpole with a low three-quarters delivery threw all of 10.1 innings in the minors after Chicago took him in the first round this past summer, but he’s impressing in the show with premium velocity from the left side.

Sale, slinging his fastball at an average of 96.2 MPH while mixing in low-80’s sliders and upper-80’s changeups, has struck out 23 batters in 17.2 IP. While he has issued 10 walks to go with all those K’s, the Florida Gulf Coast product has a 3.19 xFIP in a tiny sample. White Sox GM Kenny Williams has said that Sale will enter 2011 as a starter, but he’s certainly worth a roster spot closing out games for the South Siders in the meantime.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (29%)

Bumgarner became a prospect darling on the basis of a mid-90’s fastball that singed batters in the low minors, but panic ensued last season when the 6-4 lefty’s velocity dropped into the upper-80’s. In 2010, Bumgarner has assuaged concerns that he was hurt or destined to fall well short of the expectations that helped him rank as a top-15 farm talent (according to Baseball America) over the past two years.

Still just 21, Bumgarner pitched decently at Triple-A Fresno (82.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 4.31 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP, per Minor League Splits). Since being recalled to the majors in late June, he has whiffed 6.36 batters per nine innings, handed out 2.18 BB/9 and has a 4.22 xFIP. Bumgarner hasn’t blown hitters away, with an 84.1% contact rate that’s four percentage points above the big league average, but he is getting hitting his spots. He’s getting a first pitch strike 60% of the time (58.9% MLB average), and has placed 48.4% of his pitches over the plate (46.6% MLB average).

Though Bumgarner was once seen as an unrefined arm with heat and rudimentary secondary stuff, he has made use of all four of his pitches. He’s throwing his fastball about 57%, a mid-80’s slider 20%, a mid-70’s curve 12% and a low-80’s change 11%. Bumgarner’s not getting a ton of whiffs — his fastball has been whiffed at 6% of the time that it has been tossed (about average). His slider has an 8.6% whiff rate (13% MLB average) and his changeup comes in at 10.2% (12.1% MLB average). That leaves his curve (11.9 whiff%, 10.5% MLB average) as the only pitch with an above-average whiff rate.

However, he’s showing sharp control of all his offerings. Bumgarner has thrown his fastball for a strike 67% of the time (60-64% MLB average), 65.1% for his slider (62.7% MLB average), 61.9% for his curve (58% MLB average) and 67.5% for the change of pace (60.9% MLB average).

It’s also worth noting that Bumgarner’s fastball velocity has been on the rise. He sat 89.7 MPH in June, 90.5 MPH in July, 91.6 MPH in August and is averaging 92.8 MPH so far in September. Bumgarner is pretty good right now, but there’s more upside here if he starts flirting with those 2008 radar gun readings.

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

Dustin Pedroia‘s laser show is postponed until 2011, and Marco Scutaro’s playing through a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Thus, Lowrie is getting the chance to re-insert himself into Boston’s plans after scarcely playing at all over the past two seasons.

A 2005 supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford, Lowrie displayed quality secondary skills for a middle infielder in the minors (.284/.380/.445 line in 1,600+ plate appearances). Baseball America ranked the switch-hitter as the #73 prospect in the game prior to 2008, and Lowrie reached Fenway that year. He held his own in the majors, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA with a 95 wRC+. Lowrie punched out often (26.2 K%), but he controlled the zone by walking 11.4% of the time and swinging at pitches thrown off the plate just 17.6% (25.4% MLB average in ’08).

Unfortunately, Lowrie suffered a left wrist injury in 2009 and had to undergo surgery that wiped out three months of his season. He took only 76 trips to the plate in the majors last year, posting a 20 wRC+ with terrible luck on balls put in play. This season, Lowrie was sidelined until late July with Mononucleosis.

Since returning to action, however, Lowrie’s bat has been a plus for the Sox. He’s got a 122 wRC+ in 128 PA, hitting .255/.359/.445. The 26-year-old has a 14.1% walk rate, hacking at 21.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (29.2% MLB average this season). Lowrie’s no star, but he possesses patience and a dash of pop while capably playing up the middle of the diamond. CHONE thinks Jed is a .262/.347/.400 hitter ZiPS is less of a fan, though (.242/.324/.394). I like his chances of staying closer to that CHONE forecast.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (22%)

For most of his minor league career, Chacin was a moderate-K, ground ball-centric pitcher who limited walks. In the show, though, the 22-year-old Venezuelan native has taken a power approach.

In 113.1 innings pitched this season, Chacin has whiffed 117 batters. His rate of 9.29 strikeouts per nine frames ranks 10th among pitchers tossing at least 100 innings. His 10.7% swinging strike rate also ranks 10th, and his 74% overall contact rate trails just Francisco Liriano. Chacin’s breaking stuff has been devastating. According to TexasLeaguers.com, he’s throwing his low-80’s slider for a strike 70.6% (63.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 22.5% (13.6% MLB average). The righty’s high-70’s curveball is getting strikes 61% (58% MLB average) and whiffs 14% (11.6% MLB average).

All of those whiffs have come with walks. Throwing 41.3% of his pitches within the zone (46.7% MLB average), Chacin has issued 4.05 BB/9. Even so, he’s boasting an above-average ground ball rate (46.3 GB%) and a 3.69 xFIP. Pick him up if he’s still sitting on the sidelines in your league.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (Owned in 5% of Yahoo leagues)

Nationals fans giddily awaited a Stephen Strasburg/Zimmermann combo, giving the moribund franchise a pair of premium power pitchers at the top of the rotation. But alas, as Zimmermann’s Tommy John scars gave way to scoreless starts in the minors, Strasburg’s elbow gave out.

While the news of Strasburg’s injury is bitterly disappointing, Zimmermann is talented in his own right. Washington’s second-round pick in the ’07 draft was extremely impressive during his big league debut last season, with 9.07 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 and a 3.39 xFIP in 91.1 innings pitched. With a fastball averaging a hair over 93 MPH, a mid-80’s slider, a high-70’s curve and a mid-80’s change, Zimmermann leaped ahead in the count (65.2 first pitch strike%, 58% MLB average) and got a good number of swinging strikes (9%, 8.6% MLB average).

On the rehab trail, Zimmermann had a 31/6 K/BB ratio in 39.2 IP spread across four levels. And while two big league starts doesn’t tell us much, he has a 13/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings pitched. Zimmermann has averaged a little more than 92 MPH with his heater. He’s no Strasburg, but he’s well worth snagging in fantasy leagues.

Neil Walker, Pirates (32%)

Since the Pirates made him the 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Walker’s status within the organization has waxed and waned. The switch-hitter from nearby Pine Richland High School has gone from highly-touted catching prospect, to third baseman of the future to an afterthought utility man. But now, in the midst of an excellent 2010 season, Walker’s looking like the Pirates’ long-term answer at second base.

Recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis after raking to the tune of .321/.392/.560 in 189 plate appearances, Walker has posted +11.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in three-plus months in the majors. Turning 25 this coming Friday, Walker is batting .310/.354/.486 in 346 PA, good for a .362 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Walker’s wOBA is 27 percent above average (127 wRC+). Even better for fantasy owners, Walker still qualifies at the hot corner as well.

Granted, Walker hasn’t drawn many walks (5.8 BB%), and his batting average on balls in play is very high at .367. But ZiPS still projects him as an above-average hitter moving forward, with a .280/.321/.453 triple-slash and a .332 wOBA.

The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he cut it at second base? We just don’t know the answer yet. Six-hundred-some innings isn’t near enough of a sample to make an informed judgment, however bad his UZR marks might be. Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated Walker as somewhat below-average at third base in the minors, and figures he’ll cost his club more than a half-win with the glove at second. Expect Pittsburgh to give Walker every chance to make the transition, though.

Cameron Maybin, Marlins (Owned in five percent of Yahoo leagues)

Maybin, 23, has another shot at big league playing time following San Francisco’s pick up of Cody Ross. Maybin has logged nearly a season’s worth of MLB plate appearances spread over four seasons, and the results are vexing. The tooled-up center fielder has a .249/.310/.379 line in 512 PA, which translates to a .308 wOBA and an 88 wRC+. He has struck out 31.4% of the time, and he hasn’t drawn enough free passes (7.2 BB%) or slugged enough (.130 ISO) to compensate for the K’s.

CHONE and ZiPS are split on Maybin’s chances of being an offensive asset at this point. The former projection system pegs the erstwhile Tigers prospect as a .272/.351/.424 hitter, while the latter has Maybin languishing at .241/.319/.373. There are still sound reasons to believe that Florida’s big get in the Miguel Cabrera deal will be a long-term asset — he’s a plus defender at an up-the-middle position and he’s not helpless at the dish. However, his bat is of most concern to fantasy owners, and it’s hard to say what sort of offensive player he’ll be. Maybin is not a hacker, but his walk rate has dipped at the upper levels of the minors and is below-average in the show. He’s got a lanky 6-foot-3 frame and Baseball America predicted he’d eventually hit for plus power, but he has smacked the ball into the ground 55.5% of the time in the majors. Maybin has the skills to develop into a strong batter, but he’s got a long way to go in refining those talents.

Dan Hudson, Diamondbacks (36%)

Talk about making a good first impression with your new employer. After six exceptionally strong starts with the D-Backs, Hudson has 8.49 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9 in 59.1 big league innings this season. His 3.03 ERA is the product of some fortuitous bounces — Hudson’s BABIP is .269, and he has left nearly 81% of base runners high and dry. Also, the extreme fly ball pitcher (30.5 career GB% in the majors, 32.9 GB% at Triple-A) has given up homers on 8.2% of fly balls hit against him, a mark that’s likely to rise considering the MB average is closer to 11% and Chase Field inflates homers per fly ball hit by about six percent.

Even so, Hudson holds a quality 4.01 xFIP. There’s little question about his bat-missing ability, as he punched out 132 hitters in 117.1 innings at Triple-A over the past two years. In the big leagues this year, he has an 11.1 swinging strike rate (8.4% MLB average). Hudson’s three main pitches are all getting whiffed at often — eight percent for his 92-94 MPH fastball (six percent MLB average), 23.4% for his low-80’s changeup (12.6% MLB average) and 15.6% for his mid-80’s slider (13.6% MLB average). According to Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, Hudson’s fastball has induced a pop up 15.7% of the time that it has been put in play, compared to the 9-10% average for four-seamers.

The Old Dominion product’s fly ball tendencies should be monitored, particularly due to the unforgiving environs of his home ball park. But Hudson is well worth grabbing in mixed leagues.

Wilson Betemit, Royals (Owned in 2% of Yahoo Leagues)

It has been an awfully long time since Betemit signed (illegally) with the Atlanta Braves as a 14-year-old Dominican shortstop in 1996. He was once Atlanta’s organizational golden child, ranking as eighth-best prospect in the game (according to Baseball America) prior to 2002. Betemit has since donned Dodger blue and pinstripes of both the Bronx and South Side variety. Now a 28-year-old with dubious defensive qualifications, the switch-hitter is keeping third base warm for Mike Moustakas following the Alberto Callaspo trade.

In 175 plate appearances for K.C., Betemit has a .342/.423/.559 triple-slash and a .424 wOBA. He’s not gonna keep a .421 BABIP, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit at a level that’s slightly above the big league average. In 1,450 career PA, Betemit has batted .268/.336/.447, which translates to a .336 wOBA and a 106 wRC+. He’ll occasionally take a seat against left-handed pitching, and his D (-13 UZR/150 in 1,885 innings at 3B) won’t endear him to Ned Yost. But ZiPS projects Betemit for a moderately useful .266/.329/.422 for the rest of the season.

Homer Bailey, Reds (8%)

With Mike Leake bullpen-bound in an effort to limit his innings and Johnny Cueto serving a suspension for kicking Jason LaRue in the head during a skirmish with the Cardinals, Bailey got a spot-start for Cincy on August 15th. The 24-year-old whiffed four Fish and walked none, tossing six scoreless frames. Bailey got another start versus the Dodgers on the 20th and shined once again (7 IP, 6/2 K/BB, 1 run).

Few players have frustrated fantasy players more than the seventh pick in the 2004 draft, and Bailey missed nearly three months with right shoulder inflammation this season. But when on the bump, he has performed decently — in 63.2 innings pitched, he’s got 7.21 K/9, 3.25 BB/9 and a 4.35 xFIP. It remains to be seen whether the change sticks, but Bailey has displayed better control and is getting ahead in the count more often (61.5 first pitch strike percentage, compared to a mid-fifties mark from 2007-2009 and a 58-59% MLB average). There are no guarantees here, given Homer’s injury issues and the possibility that he does get bumped to the ‘pen. Still, he’s making progress and possesses more upside than most waiver wire fodder.