Leading up to the 2011 season, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Phantastic Four of Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt dominated any discussion about the NL East. Philly’s rotation has proven worth the hype, leading the majors in starting xFIP (2.69) by over half a run per nine frames. But the Atlanta Braves’ starters have been among the best in the majors, too, putting together a collective 3.35 xFIP that places second in the NL. While Philly’s rotation is fueled by guys making eight figure salaries, one of the key contributors for Atlanta is a rookie righty who didn’t hear his name called on draft day in 2008.

Within the course of a few years, Brandon Beachy has evolved from a part-time pitcher at Indiana Wesleyan who couldn’t buy a Kia with the free agent signing bonus that the Braves gave him ($20,000) to a starter who ranks among the likes of teammate Tommy Hanson and Clayton Kershaw in xFIP.

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As the 2011 season got under way, Tampa Bay locked up Wade Davis with long-term deal that could potentially keep him in a Rays uniform through 2017 while putting a total of over $36 million in the right-hander’s pockets. So far, Davis has rewarded Tampa’s aggressive move to cost-control his arbitration years and potentially buy out a pair of free agent seasons. In 44 innings pitched, Davis sports a 3.07 ERA that places among the top 20 in the American League.

Davis was, health permitting, supposed to become a prominent piece of Tampa’s starting rotation. On the strength of what Baseball America called “a heavy 93-94 mph fastball with above-average sink” and a “plus” curveball, Davis punched out 8.3 batters per nine frames at the Triple-A level. BA ranked him between number 17 and 34 on its Top 100 prospects list from 2008-2010. Given his stature amongst scouts, Davis’ hot start to the 2011 season makes him appear to be a talented starter converting potential into major league production.

The problem is the current version of Wade Davis pitches nothing like that glowing scouting report. He’s fooling just about no one, while also lacking the fine control and ground ball tendencies to compensate.

Among qualified starters, Davis’ 5.1 swinging strike percentage places ahead of only Brad Penny, Ivan Nova, Kyle McClellan and Dustin Moseley. For reference, the big league average is around 8.5% While Davis’ 6.7% swinging strike rate from 2009-2010 was rather disappointing for a guy touted as a power pitcher, that looks robust compared to this year’s clip. Davis has struck out 10.6% of batters faced this year, down from 17.1% from ’09 to ’10. That explains why his K/9 mark is just 4.09. He K’d around 6.6 per nine from ’09 to 10 (7-7.1 MLB average in recent years).

Davis’ average fastball velocity is down from 92.3 MPH last season to 90 in 2011. While over 40% of Davis’ pitches classified by Pitch F/X as four-seamers were thrown at 93 MPH or higher in 2010, about four percent have reached that velocity this year. Davis suggested to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that the lack of mid-to-upper 90s gas is at least partially intentional:

Part by design, part by the way he typically builds arm strength into a season, Davis is throwing with less velocity and getting more outs.

“Every year I come in after spring training and I’ve always been a little down, and toward the second half I always pick it up,” Davis said. “And this year’s a little different just because I’m trying to pitch a little more instead of just relying on stuff. My command’s a lot better of the strike zone, I can attack hitters a lot easier being more relaxed.”

Unfortunately for Davis, it’s hard to find much evidence the “pitcher, not a thrower” mantra will pay long-term dividends. He’s certainly getting fewer K’s, with his fastball’s whiff rate down slightly compared to last year and his breaking stuff getting even fewer whiffs (just 2.6% for his curve and 7.2% with his slider; those rates were 5 and 13 percent, respectively, last year, and the MLB averages are 11.6% for the curve and 13.6% for the slider). But his declining punch out rate has come without better control or an uptick in ground ball rate.

His first-pitch strike percentage, which was 58.9 percent from 2009-2010, is a shade under 53% in 2011 (58-59% MLB average). Opposing batters are drawing a walk in 10% of their plate appearances against Davis, compared to 8.6% from ’09-’10. Consequently, he’s issuing about 3.9 walks per nine innings this season after allowing 3.3 free passes per nine in ’09 and ’10 (3.3 MLB average).

Davis was already a flyball-slanted pitcher coming into this year, posting a 39.2 GB% from ’09 to ’10, but he’s getting even fewer worm burners in 2011 (36.3%). So far, all those pitches lifted skyward haven’t been an issue — he has surrendered just two homers. However, Davis has a 2.9% home run per fly ball rate that’s bound to increase. If he had given up homers on fly balls (which isn’t something a pitcher has much control over) at a rate close to the AL average, he’d have a HR/9 mark of 1.2-1.3 instead of his actual 0.41.

While Davis is flirting with a sub-three ERA, his peripherals suggest that he has actually been over 30 percent worse than the average MLB pitcher (134 xFIP-). Maybe you feel that Davis’ .260 BABIP won’t climb quite as much as usual due to Tampa’s skilled fielders, and maybe he won’t have severe home run problems pitching in the power-suppressing Trop. But even so, Davis just isn’t showing the requisite control and earth-scorching style to survive with such a low strikeout rate. Either he’s going to find a way to miss more lumber, or he’s going to get beat with the regression stick.

Much has changed for Michael Pineda since he was a lanky, projectable 16-year-old who signed with the Mariners out of the Dominican Republic in 2005. The right-hander now stands 6-foot-7, 260 pounds, pops mitts with upper-90s gas, and is considered a potential ace by the prospect pundits: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, ESPN’s Keith Law and our own Marc Hulet all rank Pineda as a top-25 farm talent.

The M’s have named Pineda their fifth starter to begin the 2011 season, and the 22-year-old is primed to make an instant fantasy impact. Seattle will be careful with Pineda’s innings, but King Felix’s sidekick has it all — K’s, control, a quality defense and a friendly home ball park.

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On Friday, Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson announced that Russell Branyan has made the club’s Opening Day roster. Branyan’s ultimate role has yet to be determined — his own physical limitations, Juan Miranda‘s presence on the roster and Xavier Nady’s arm strength could affect his playing time — but if you’re looking for cheap pop, Branyan is your man.

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While the New York Mets have produced plenty of slap stick comedy in recent years — Bernazard The Brawler’s WWE alter-ego, Mystery Diagnosis: Carlos Beltran, and Oliver Perez, aspiring (and flailing) $12 million LOOGY — it only feels like the club from Queens has been presided over by Abbott and Costello.

Sandy Alderson has replaced Omar Minaya as GM, and Terry Collins moves from minor league field coordinator to manager, ending Jerry Manuel’s tenure. But a question that so vexed Abbott looms large for the Mets: What’s on second? Luis Castillo got the boot, and 21-year-old Ruben Tejada has been sent AAA after an ultra-aggressive promotion to the majors last year. That still leaves a gaggle of middle infielders vying to be Jose Reyes‘ DP partner. Here’s a quick look at the contenders, listed by fantasy relevance, along with their respective ZiPS projections for 2011.

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Trevor Cahill was supposed to become a premier starting pitcher. Oakland’s second-round pick in the ’06 draft punched out around ten batters per nine innings in the minors, compelled opponents to chop the ball into the dirt when they managed to make contact, and was dubbed the 11th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2009. Last year, Cahill sliced his ERA from 4.63 during his rookie season to a svelte 2.97.

Entering 2011, fantasy owners have anointed Cahill as an elite option — MockDraftCentral shows he’s being drafted just slightly after the likes of Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, and Francisco Liriano. While Cahill undoubtedly made progress last year, the gap between his perceived acedom and actual performance might leave those shelling out a top pick with a sour taste in their mouths.

Cahill did make across-the-board improvements from 2009 to 2010. While not exactly hearkening back to those high-K days on the farm, Cahill’s strikeout per plate appearance rate climbed from 11.6% to 15.1% (18.2% MLB average). He also issued fewer free passes, paring his BB/PA total from 9.3% to 8.1% (8.7% MLB average).

The right-hander’s ground ball rate, 47.8% during his rookie season, shot up to 56%. That was fifth-highest among qualified starting pitchers, trailing just Tim Hudson, Justin Masterson, Derek Lowe and Jake Westbrook. Like those guys, Cahill’s sinker was the root cause: he got a grounder 62.1% of the time he threw the pitch, up from a MLB average 52% in 2009.

With more K’s, fewer walks and bushels of grounders, Cahill’s Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) fell from 4.92 to 4.11. Much better, but nowhere near his actual sub-three ERA. The 1.14 run divide between Cahill’s xFIP and ERA was fourth-largest among qualified starters:

Cahill was able to outperform his peripherals due in large part to a .236 batting average on balls in play, lowest among all qualified starters. He had .153 BABIP on ground balls, compared to a .231 American League average and a .205 BABIP for all A’s pitchers.

It’s true, the 23-year-old has some built-in advantages that other pitcher’s don’t. The Coliseum suppresses offense, and the Athletics were a superb defensive team last year. Per Ultimate Zone Rating, The A’s saved about 39 runs more than an average squad in 2010. Josh Willingham aside, Oakland will again feature slick D in 2011. But even accounting for those factors doesn’t wipe away Cahill’s ERA/xFIP split.

According to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index Tool (details here), Cahill would have surrendered nine more earned runs last year if he had pitched in a neutral offensive environment in the AL instead of The Coliseum. As mentioned above, the Athletics’ D saved about 39 runs according to UZR. If we assume that Cahill got a defensive boost proportionate to the number of innings he pitched out of Oakland’s total (196.2 out of 1,431.2), then Cahill’s teammates saved him a little more than five runs.

So, Cahill’s ballpark and defense saved him around 14 runs total. In a neutral park behind an average defensive team, his ERA would have been about 3.60. Put another way, the Coliseum and Oakland’s defense explain about six-tenths of a run of the 1.14 run difference between Cahill’s ERA and xFIP. However, that still leaves a half-run gap that looks to be the product of good fortune on balls in play, above and beyond what could be expected even with a pitcher’s park and rangy fielders.

For 2011, PECOTA and Oliver project an ERA in the 3.60-3.70 range, while ZiPS is less bullish:

PECOTA: 190 IP, 6.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.57 ERA
Oliver: 185 IP, 5.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.68 ERA
ZiPS: 195 IP, 5.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.07 ERA

Cahill’s in his early twenties, has upside, and benefits from both a home park that saps bats and a strong defense unit behind him. That being said, he’s not yet the ace that his 2010 ERA suggests. He could get to that level one day, but drafting him as though he’s already there is a recipe for disappointment.

Yesterday, Zach Sanders unveiled NL Starting Pitcher Rankings for the 2011 season. Braves righty Jair Jurrjens was ominously listed under the “Doubt” tier. And there are reasons to have doubt about the 25-year-old: Jurrjens is coming off an injury-wracked 2010 in which his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) climbed for a third straight year. The former Tigers farmhand has whiffed and walked a similar number of batters over that time frame, but Jurrjens’ plummeting ground ball rate should have you thinking twice before drafting him.

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Sporting a triangular scar on the back of his elbow, Edinson Volquez returned to a major league mound last July less than a year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The righty once swapped from Texas to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton went on to toss 62.2 regular-season frames, whiffing and walking scores of hitters while also inducing grounders like never before. Drafting Volquez carries risk — the 27-year-old’s innings will be watched, and control has never been his strong suit — but a modest drop in free passes mixed with stellar K and ground ball rates should make Volquez one of the better value picks on draft day.

Volquez’s post-surgery stuff was top-shelf. He got swinging strikes 13 percent of the time, best among starting pitchers throwing at least 60 innings and running circles around the 8.5 percent MLB average. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Volquez boasted excellent whiff rates with his fastball (averaging between 93-94 MPH), changeup and curveball:

Fastball: 9 Whiff% (5-6% MLB average)
Changeup: 24.4 Whiff% (12.6% MLB average)
Curveball: 11.8 Whiff% (11.6% MLB average)

Volquez also got plenty of earth scorchers: his ground ball rate was 53.9 percent, far above the 44.5 percent clip he managed in the majors prior to 2010. Compared to past years, Volquez threw more curveballs in place of changeups. That breaking ball was beaten into the ground often: Volquez had a 70 percent GB% with his curve (49% MLB average). His fastball (50.5 GB%, 42% MLB average) also helped him wage a ground assault, while his change was league average with a 50 GB%.

Considering that Great American Ballpark punishes fly ball pitchers, inflating home run production 20 percent for lefty hitters compared to a neutral stadium and 33 percent for righty batters, Volquez’s uptick in grounders is a positive. And the sample size is large enough that we can put some stock in the worm burning increase — changes in ground ball rate become reliable rather quickly, after about 150 batters faced (Volquez faced 275 last season). Also helping matters is a strong Cincy infield. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen are quality defenders, and the rangy Paul Janish looks like the favorite for shortstop starts over Edgar Renteria.

Of course, Volquez’s return wasn’t all roses. Always control-challenged (his career MLB walk rate is near 4.7 per nine), Volquez issued over five free passes per nine innings pitched. He located just 39.7 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 60+ IP and well below the 46.5 percent MLB average. As TexasLeaguers.com shows, only Volquez’s curve got strikes at an above-average clip:

Fastball: 59.7 Strike% (60-64% MLB average)
Changeup: 59.5 Strike% (60-61% MLB average)
Curveball 58.8 Strike% (58% MLB average)

Volquez isn’t likely to take the bump in 2011 and start showing exquisite control. But it’s not uncommon for post-TJ pitchers to struggle locating their pitches initially as they try to regain proprioception (knowing where the body is in space) and then improve their control the further out they get from surgery. Volquez’s month-by-month splits paint the picture of a pitcher gradually improving his location:

July: 35.5 Zone%
August: 37.0 Zone%
September/October: 45.6 Zone%

For 2011, two of the three big projection systems predict a sub-four ERA for Volquez:

ZiPS: 108 IP, 9.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.66 ERA
PECOTA: 134 IP, 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.93 ERA
Oliver: 106 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.14 ERA

Drafting Edinson Volquez is a gamble. He’s going to walk people. And he’s not a sure bet to log a full starter’s workload, given that 2011 will be his first full year back from Tommy John and that the Reds have seven or eight legitimate rotation options. But he’s not going to cost a prime pick (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at #74 among starters and #262 overall), and he’s the sort of upside play who can be the difference between winning and losing a league title. Take a chance on Edinson — his punch outs and grounders will make you glad you did.

Aside from age, Andres Torres and Angel Pagan have much in common. Both are swift switch-hitters who impressed in brief big league playing time in 2009 and broke out while holding full-time gigs in 2010. Entering the 2011 season, the two are side-by-side in terms of outfielder ADP: according to MockDraftCentral, Torres is 56th among fly catchers, while Pagan is 57th. So, who’s the better bet on draft day?

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Manny Ramirez was humbled this winter. The dreadlocked one pulled in over $23 million last year and has career earnings topping $200 million, but he inked a one-year, $2M deal with the Tampa Bay Rays after a 2010 season sullied by three DL stints and a power outage. Even compared to his DH brethren signing single-year deals on the free agent market — Jack Cust, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome — Manny got less money.

Ramirez’s stock is similarly down in fantasy leagues. MockDraftCentral lists Manny’s ADP 42nd among those with outfield eligibility, and 156th overall. Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick and even Carlos Lee place ahead of Ramirez. Is it possible that Manny is actually underrated at this late point in his career? To answer that question, let’s review Ramirez’s injury-marred 2010 and try to project whether he could have a quality year in the land of cowbells.

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