A gifted center fielder with well-regarded hitting skills, Carlos Gonzalez has now been involved in two blockbuster trades over the past two off seasons. Originally signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Venezuela in 2002, Gonzalez ranked as the top property in the D-Backs’ system before he became a prominent piece of the Dan Haren trade. After only one year with Oakland, the lefty-hitter will now pack his bags and head to the friendly environs of Coors Field, as the principal player for the Rockies in the Matt Holliday deal. Let’s take a look back at Gonzalez’s minor league career to help project what sort of player he may develop into over the next few years.

Gonzalez started his professional career in 2003, for Missoula of the Rookie-Level Pioneer League. The then-17 year old held his own, batting .258/.308/.404 in 275 AB. In a sign of things to come, Gonzalez displayed pretty good pop for his age (.146 ISO), but also rather raw control of the strike zone (5.8 BB%, 22.2K%)

In 2004, the 6-1,180 pounder would spend the majority of his season with Yakima of the Low-A Northwest League. In 300 AB for the club, he posted a .273/.327/.427 line, with 9 HR. Gonzalez drew a few more walks (7.3BB%), while swinging and missing a slightly higher percentage of the time (23.3K%). In a late-season promotion to South Bend of the Low-A Midwest League, Gonzalez hacked his way to a .275/.288/.412 line, drawing only one walk in 51 AB.

Gonzalez would return to the Midwest League in 2005, spending the entire campaign at South Bend. As a 19 year-old, Gonzalez broke out, batting an impressive .307/.371/.489 and popping 18 home runs in 515 AB. His walk rate climbed to a decent 9.3% and he cut his K rate to 16.7%. Also, his ISO climbed from the .150-ish range in ’03 and ’04 to .182. Following this stellar season, Baseball America ranked Gonzalez as the 32nd-best prospect in the game.

In 2006, Gonzalez would be promoted to the hitter-happy environment of the High-A California League, spending the majority of the season at Lancaster (home of 40 MPH jet streams). To say that Lancaster increases offensive production is sort of like saying the United States has some slight debt issues at the moment. Per Baseball Prospectus 2008, Clear Channel Stadium boosted batting levels about 11% between 2005-2007. For the aptly-named Jet Hawks, Gonzalez compiled a .300/.349/.563 line, belting 21 long balls in 403 AB. While that comes out to a .263 ISO, one has to keep in mind his home ballpark. Gonzalez’s control of the strike zone actually seemed to take a step back, as he walked 6.9% and whiffed 25.8%. Late in the season, Gonzalez would be promoted to AA Tennessee of the Southern League, where he batted .213/.294/.410 in 61 AB.

2007 would see Gonzalez return to AA, this time with new D-Backs affiliate Mobile. In 458 AB, the 21 year-old hit .286/.333/.476. In a more neutral hitting environment, Gonzalez posted a solid .190 ISO, though he continued to employ an aggressive approach that saw him draw a free pass just 6.5% of the time. His K rate declined slightly, to 22.5%. In 42 late-season AB with AAA Tucson, he hit .310/.396/.500. After his solid AA campaign, BA would rank bump Gonzalez up to the 22nd-ranked prospect in the minors.

Following the ’07 season, Gonzalez was shipped to Oakland along with a cadre of other prospects (Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Aaron Cunningham, Brett Anderson and Chris Carter) in exchange for Haren and Connor Robertson. Gonzalez would open the season with AAA Sacramento of the Pacific Coast League, hitting a mild .283/.344/.416 in 173 AB. Called up to Oakland in late May, Gonzalez had a rough go of it in his first taste of the majors. As a player with unrefined control of the strike zone, the Venezuelan unsurprisingly struggled. Gonzalez posted a .242/.273/.361 line in 302 AB, with an ugly 4.1BB% and a lofty strikeout rate (26.8%). He didn’t show a whole lot of restraint, swinging at 32.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, and his contact rate was rather low at 74.11%.

Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.

While the paperwork is not yet finalized and physicals still need to be taken, all indications are that slugging left fielder Matt Holliday is headed to Oakland for outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, left-handed starter Greg Smith and reliever Huston Street.

With a couple of outstanding young starting prospects on the way in Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, as well as several other well-regarded arms (Gio Gonzalez, James Simmons and Vince Mazzaro) close to contributing, the Athletics are seemingly gearing up for a run at contention in the AL West. While that might seem overly optimistic at first glance, it is important to keep in mind that the Angels significantly outperformed their Pythagorean Record in 2008: according to the club’s runs scored and runs allowed, the Angels “should” have finished 88-74, as opposed to 100-62. Adding Holliday’s bat to an oft-anemic offense, coupled with likely improvement from Daric Barton, the return to health of Travis Buck and perhaps something of a bounceback from Mark Ellis could be enough to push the Angels, especially if we’re talking about a post-Teixeira squad.

What exactly does Holliday’s move to the A’s mean for fantasy owners? The first, instantaneous reaction most will have is that Holliday’s numbers will plummet without a cozy, Coors-aided home ballpark. Holliday has hit a Herculean .357/.423/.645 at home, as opposed to a more tame .280/.348/.455 on the road, but I think we need to discuss the predictive value of home/road splits for a moment.

While there’s no denying that Coors Field is a significantly better hitting environment than Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum, throwing out Holliday’s home stats (i.e. half of his data sample) simply because of this is akin to throwing out the baby with the bath water. As Dave Cameron has pointed out, Holliday has been one of the better hitters in the game, even adjusting for the context of his home ballpark. From 2006-2008, Holliday has ranked 18th, 5th, and 10th, respectively, among all major league hitters in terms of WPA/LI. In terms of Equivalent Average (a Baseball Prospectus stat that also adjusts for home ballpark as well as base running prowess), Holliday has ranked 11th, 12th, and 11th, respectively, from 2006-2008. In other words, the 29 year-old is a top-15 hitter, regardless of where he plays his home games.

In addition to his patience and pop, Holliday has also shown wheels that belie his 6-4, 235 pound frame. The A’s are generally a conservative lot on the base paths (not a bad idea, considering the “break even” rate for SB’s is about 75%), but Holliday’s high-percentage thievery (28 for 30 in 2008, or 93.3%) should give him more autonomy than most.

Over the next few months, you’ll likely hear a lot about how Holliday’s numbers will fall precipitously now that he no longer has the thin Rocky Mountain air at his disposal. While his numbers may take somewhat of a downturn, do not mistake Holliday for a Coors Field creation: he’ll likely continue to rake and be a valuable commodity, both to fantasy owners and to the A’s.

The 2008 Oakland Athletics were just bursting at the seams with intriguing pitching storylines. Aside from jettisoning three-fifths of its 2007 rotation and the bullpen developments of a little-known submariner and a well-pedigreed flame-thrower, the A’s also oversaw the successful transition of a bullpen lifer into a starting stalwart. Justin Duchscherer, a 31 year-old who had started all of 5 games in the majors and hadn’t been taken a regular turn in a rotation since 2003 with AAA Sacramento, managed to post a 2.67 WPA/LI in 2008, 12th-best among all major league starters.

As a middle man for the A’s over the 2003-2007 seasons, Duchscherer struck out 7.4 batters per nine innings while also being stingy with the walks (2.42 BB/9). While “The Duke” has a fastball that wouldn’t get him noticed in a high school game (85.9 MPH in ’08), he was always noted for possessing one of the more diverse arsenals among relievers. While most ‘pen arms rely predominantly on two pitches, Duchscherer throws a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and a changeup. Perhaps intrigued by his solid peripherals and his unusually deep repertoire, Oakland decided to give him a spin in the starting five this past season. The timing seemed a bit peculiar, however, as Duchscherer had just missed the majority of the 2007 season after undergoing hip surgery.

In 141.2 IP, Duchscherer posted a sparkling 2.54 ERA, while posting a WHIP of exactly 1. His control remained stellar, as he issued just 2.16 walks per nine innings. “The Duke” used his full spread of pitches, throwing his fastball just 43.7% overall. He mixed in heavy doses of his 81.7 MPH cutter (29.9%) and his big-breaking 69.9 MPH curveball (24.3%), while also giving hitters an occasional 81.2 MPH slider (1.3%) and an 80.2 MPH changeup (0.8%).

While Duchscherer’s K rate was adequate (6.04) and he limited base runners reaching via walks, there was still a pretty huge discord between his actual ERA (2.54) and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA), which was 3.69. “The Duke” benefitted from an extraordinarily low .240 BABIP, a number that will surely climb in 2009. The A’s were quite good with the leather in ’08 (ranking 4th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which ranks the percentage of balls put in play that are converted to outs), and McAfee Coliseum does suppress offensive production , but that .240 mark was the lowest among all starters tossing at least 140 frames. There are also some concerns about the condition of Duchscherer’s hip, as he missed half of August and all of September while dealing with the issue.

Assuming that he’s healthy, Justin Duchscherer should certainly remain on fantasy radars heading into the 2009 season. However, given his solid (but not spectacular) peripherals and his insanely low BABIP, “The Duke” will likely see his ERA rise to a level where he’s more of a useful component rather any sort of rotation front-man.

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, we find that Duchscherer’s most comparable player by age is Paul Byrd, another soft-tosser with a diverse repertoire who didn’t get his chance to stick in a rotation until several years into his career (in Byrd’s case, at age 28). Perhaps that’s an approximate career path for Duchscherer from this point forward: he’ll be useful, but just don’t expect another season with an ERA in the mid-two’s.

Golden Spikes Award winner. Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. The next George Brett? Without question, expectations are sky high for Royals third baseman Alex Gordon. Selected out of Nebraska with the 2nd overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Gordon had a brief but spectacular minor league career. He tamed the Texas League (AA) in 2006 while with Wichita:

2006 (AA): 486 AB, .325/.427/.588, 12.9BB%, 23.3K%, .263 ISO

As a 22 year-old, he made mince meat of the league while skipping A-Ball altogether. Gordon displayed plenty of pop and a promising walk rate. His strikeout rate was somewhat high, but it’s difficult to call Gordon’s debut anything other than a rousing success. Following the 2006 season, pundits heaped praise upon the former Cornhusker. In addition to the BA Minor League Player of the Year Award, Gordon was named the second best prospect in the game by the same publication.

Both scouting reports and statistics alike had Gordon pegged for a rookie tour de force, as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system had his worst case batting line at .243/.320/.432. Given his patience and power, Gordon figured to hit the ground running in Kansas City.

While his rookie season was far from a disaster, Gordon’s initial taste of the majors was somewhat disappointing. He didn’t reach that 10th-percentile PECOTA projection:

2007: .247/.314/.411, 7BB%, 25.2K%, .164 ISO, 19.5 LD%, .304 BABIP

The keen batting eye that Gordon displayed at Nebraska and at Wichita didn’t translate as smoothly as expected, and his K rate predictably remained high. The .164 ISO ranked him toward the middle of the pack among third baseman and his line drive rate was solid, though Gordon had a pretty rough go of it versus southpaw pitching (.217/.266/.420).

This past season, Gordon would show a moderate amount of improvement, giving hope that 2009 will be his true breakout campaign:

2008: .260/.351/.432, 11.8 BB%, 24.3K%, .172 ISO, 21 LD%, .314 BABIP

Gordon upped his walk rate nearly five percentage points, while also slightly lowering his strikeout rate. His ISO improved just slightly as well. While the relevance of first half/second half splits can certainly be debated, it seems reasonable to suggest that they might mean more with a young, still-developing player who shows a significant increase in performance. Gordon hit .277/.392/.496 in 167 PA after the All-Star Break before missing time in late August and September with a hip injury. While he hit a robust .273/.370/.491 versus right-handers, lefty pitching continues to be Gordon’s nemesis (.234/.312/.317, 41 K in 187 PA).

While Alex Gordon didn’t get off to the lightning-fast start that was expected of him, it is important to remember that he will just turn 25 years old this offseason, and is coming off of a season in which he showed a solid amount of improvement with the bat. With several years of development time remaining and a broad base of skills with which to work, Gordon looks like a good buy-low candidate.

Coming up through the minor league farm system, Pirates outfielder Nate McLouth seemed to fit the dreaded “fourth outfielder” archetype very well. A 25th-round selection in the 2000 amateur entry draft whom the Bucs managed to pry away from a Michigan scholarship, McLouth was viewed as possessing a good (but not great) bat and solid (but not center-field worthy) range. The main complaint about Nate was his power. (Generously) Listed at 5-11, 180 pounds, McLouth did not figure to have the pop to support his playing every day in a corner outfield spot.

Upon reaching AAA Indianapolis in 2005, McLouth appeared to affirm those extra outfielder predictions by batting .297/.364/.401. Nate showed a line-drive bat and excellent base running skills (34 SB, 8 CS) that figured to make him a well-rounded bench player, but the power was lacking (.104 ISO). McLouth got the call up to Pittsburgh late in the 2005 season and actually matched his AAA home run total (5) in just 120 PA with the Pirates, batting .257/.305/.450.

In 2006, Nate essentially filled that fourth outfielder role and had a difficult season, posting a .233/.293/.385 line in 297 PA. His walk rate dipped to 6.3% and his strikeout rate was rather high (21.9%), a surprising development for a guy who whiffed less than 14% of the time at the minor league level. Perhaps he was trying too hard to play the power-hitter’s game: he posted a decent .152 ISO, but it may have come at the expense of some hard swings and misses.

A funny thing happened in 2007. After once again filling the fourth outfielder role earlier in the season, McLouth was given a chance to play on a regular basis in August and September, and he exceeded most anyone’s expectations:

2007: 382 PA, .258/.351/.459, 10.6BB%, 23.4K%, .201 ISO, 16.4 LD%, .301 BABIP

A guy who barely managed a .100 ISO in the International League, McLouth posted an ISO exceeding .200 in ’07. His walk rate also improved, though his K rate crept a little bit higher. He was slightly lucky on balls put in play (his BABIP should have been about .284), but that’s not a huge difference. McLouth’s secondary skills were developing more than anyone had imagined, and he was just about the best base stealer in the game to boot (22 SB, 1 CS).

In spring training 2008, McLouth beat out Nyjer Morgan for the starting job in center field. Nate was a full-time player for the first time in his career, and he made the most of the opportunity:

2008: 685 PA, .276/.356/.497, 9.8BB%, 15.6K%, .221 ISO, 18.5 LD%, .291 BABIP

Nate’s 2.30 WPA/LI ranked 4th among center fielders and 17th among all outfielders, ahead of names such as Curtis Granderson and Vladimir Guerrero. His walk rate remained steady, and he significantly reduced his strikeout rate as well. McLouth’s contact percentages were 85.21% and 83.82% in 2006 and 2007, respectively, but he upped that number to 88.36% this past year. His ISO climbed to .221, which also ranked him ahead of Vlad and Granderson as well as Matt Holliday. Continuing his trend of stellar base running, Nate swiped 23 bases in 26 attempts. With 26 bombs and 23 steals, McLouth turned in a 20/20 season.

Given the opportunity to play on a regular basis and disprove his fourth outfielder status by new Pirates management, Nate McLouth turned in one of the better campaigns among all outfielders in 2008. While his Gold Glove Award was pretty dubious (John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system had him at -40 plays, 35th among CF’s) and he should likely defer center field to rangy prospect Andrew McCutchen, Nate has developed better power than anyone could have anticipated, given his minor league track record.

With two straight years of .200+ ISO’s, a solid walk rate, a reduced K rate and no fluky BABIP, it seems reasonable to think that he can retain this level of offensive performance going forward. Add in his nifty, high-percentage base stealing (he’s now 57 for 62 in the majors, or 91.9%) and you’re looking at a fantasy asset. Heading into his peak years (he just turned 27), McLouth has developed enough offensive ability that he could still be valuable as an everyday player in a corner outfield spot. Who would have thought that when he was slugging .401 in AAA?

Suffice it to say, the 2008 Detroit Tigers fell well short of expectations. While the pre-season predictions calling for 1,000 runs scored were ridiculous, Detroit’s 78-84 Pythagorean Record was legitimately disappointing. The Tigers’ offense was reasonably productive (ranking 10th in the majors in Equivalent Average), but the starting pitchers stumbled to a collective 5.03 ERA, ranking just 11th in the American League.

While the continued disappointment and injury issues concerning star-crossed righty Jeremy Bonderman got some attention, the majority will point to Justin Verlander’s campaign as the most troubling development in the Motor City during the 2008 season. Verlander’s ERA ballooned from 3.66 in ’07 to 4.84 in 2008, a hefty increase. So, was Verlander considerably worse this past season? And what can we expect from him in 2009?

To help answer these questions, let’s take a look Verlander’s peripherals and Fielding Independent ERA’s (FIP ERA) over his three full seasons in the major leagues:

2006

186 IP, 6 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, .293 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%, 4.35 FIP ERA

2007

201.2 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, .294 BABIP, 74.9 LOB%, 3.99 FIP ERA

2008

201 IP, 7.3 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, .305 BABIP, 65.4 LOB%, 4.18 FIP ERA

Verlander lost some of the K’s that he picked up in 2007 (basically splitting the difference between his K rate in ’06 and ’07) and walked nearly a batter more per nine innings, so his peripherals did slip. However, his 65.4 Left On Base % was well below the major league average (around 70-72%), which explains why his ERA was higher than it should have been given his K’s, walks and home run rate. The main thing to notice here is that his FIP ERA’s over these three years are pretty similar. Verlander’s FIP ERA in 2008 was 4.18. His career FIP ERA? 4.18. That’s certainly useful. But ace-worthy?

It’s also worth mentioning that Verlander’s fastball velocity has progressively dipped each season. It’s not as though he’s scrounging to hit 90 on the radar gun or anything, but he did lose over 1 MPH from 2007 to 2008:

Verlander’s Fastball Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: 95.1 MPH
2007: 94.8 MPH
2008: 93.6 MPH

It’s difficult to say just what sort of effect this will have on Verlander going forward, or if this trend will continue, but it’s a bit troubling for a power pitcher to lose a mile and a half off of his heat before his 26th birthday. While Verlander’s fastball has been getting slower, his changeup and curveball have actually been coming in harder:

Verlander’s Curveball and Changeup Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: Curveball (78.4 MPH) Changeup (81.8 MPH)
2007: Curveball (80.2 MPH) Changeup (82.7 MPH)
2008: Curveball (81 MPH) Changeup (83.7 MPH)

With the dip in fastball velocity and the increase of speed on both his curve and change, Verlander has less speed variance between his pitches. Here’s the difference in speed between his fastball and his secondary pitches over the past three seasons:

2006: Curveball (-16.7 MPH) Changeup (-13.3 MPH)
2007: Curveball (-14.6 MPH) Changeup (-12.1 MPH)
2008: Curveball (-12.6 MPH) Changeup (-9.9 MPH)

It’s an old baseball axiom that pitching is mostly about location and changing speeds. Verlander’s ability to change speeds has eroded by a significant margin since 2006, as his pitches are now coming in within a more limited range of speed. One would imagine that it’s harder to hit a pitcher whose fastball differs 17 MPH from his curve and 13 MPH from his change than it is to hit a guy with a 13 MPH difference with his hook and a 10 MPH difference with the changeup.

Justin Verlander is a good starting pitcher who can look absolutely unhittable at times. However, his peripheral stats and the aforementioned pitching trends suggest that he’s more of a solid starter than an unquestioned star. Verlander’s ERA should revert back to the low-4’s in 2009, but if you’re expecting ace-level production, you may be disappointed.

While it’s unknown whether or not he can raise the dead entity that is the Washington Nationals franchise, this much is certain: outfielder Elijah Dukes is one heck of a baseball player.

A former Tampa Bay (still Devil at that time) Ray and a Tampa native, Dukes was selected by the Rays in the third round of the 2002 amateur entry draft. A breathtaking combination of size (6-1, 240) speed and power, Dukes compiled an impressive minor league resume, batting a combined .280/.369/.448. However, a number of run-ins with members of the organization and the law led the Rays to grow weary of Dukes. Tampa Bay swapped Dukes to the Nationals for minor league lefty Glenn Gibson last winter.

In his first year in D.C., Dukes showed why the Nationals were willing to give him a chance:

276 AB, .264/.386/.478, 15.3BB%, 28.6K%, .214 ISO, 13 HR

Dukes displayed the wide array of skills that made him a top prospect, showing excellent patience and power while also swiping 13 bags. His plate discipline is pretty refined for a guy who’s just 24, as he swung at just 20.34% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The strikeout rate was very high and figures to remain so in the future (his contact percentage was 70.38% and his minor league K% was 24.4), but Dukes possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to compensate for a batting average in the .250-.260 range. Great on-base skills, power and 10-20 steals to boot? That’s a pretty valuable player.

From a pure baseball standpoint, Elijah Dukes is one of the most talented young players in the major leagues. Few possess his blend of power, strike-zone judgment and athleticism. I’m not going to speak on his personal issues, other than to say that he’s had more than a few problems over the years; saying anything more would just be baseless speculation on my part. But if he remains on the field and out of trouble, Dukes has the skills to establish himself as a breakout star in 2009.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lefty Joe Saunders is fresh off of the best season of his career. Given the opportunity to make 30+ starts for the first time in the majors, the Virginia Tech product posted a 3.41 ERA (8th among AL starters) and a 2.07 WPA/LI (11th). Saunders compiled a 17-7 W-L record and posted a 130 ERA+.

However, the are some reasons to expect this Hokie to decline in 2009. Saunders’ Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) was 4.36 in 2008, nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. While his control is pretty solid (2.41 BB/9 in ’08, 2.80 BB/9 career), Saunders does not miss very many bats. He struck out just 4.68 batters per nine innings last season, down from an already tepid 5.79 K/9 in 2007. His 2008 K rate was the 10th-lowest among qualified starters. Aside from Saunders and Rockies right-hander Aaron Cook (who compensates with a ton of groundballs), no one else in the top 10 had a FIP ERA lower than 4.09, despite generally good control:

10 Lowest K Rates Among MLB Starters:

1. Livan Hernandez (3.35 K/9, 4.94 FIP ERA)
2. Aaron Cook (4.09 K/9, 3.76 FIP ERA)
3. Paul Byrd (4.1 K/9, 5.14 FIP ERA)
4. Jon Garland (4.12 K/9, 4.76 FIP ERA)
5. Zach Duke (4.23 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
6. Kenny Rogers (4.25 K/9, 5.22 FIP ERA)
7. Nick Blackburn (4.47 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
8. Greg Maddux (4.55 K/9, 4.09 FIP ERA)
9. Jeff Suppan (4.56 K/9, 5.51 FIP ERA)
10. Saunders (4.68 K/9, 4.36 FIP ERA)

When a pitcher compiles so few strikeouts, he is often subject to the caprices of his defense and variance (luck) on balls put in play. Some years, the ball may bounce the pitcher’s way (as it did for Saunders in 2008, who posted a very low .267 BABIP). Other times, a pitcher might not get so lucky. Take Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke, for example. Duke’s peripherals (4.23 K/9, 2.29 BB/9) were pretty similar to Saunders’, yet Duke posted a mediocre 4.82 ERA. The difference between the two? A huge gap in BABIP. While Saunders was the beneficiary of good luck on balls in play, Duke couldn’t buy an out, and had the misfortune of posting a .327 BABIP.

Saunders figures to be a decent mid-rotation starter at the major league level, a guy worth looking at in the later rounds of the draft. But don’t let the ERA and shiny W-L record fool you: Saunders is more Average Joe than Cy Young.

Brad Ziegler had a historic beginning to his career, but he wasn’t the only Athletics reliever to post gaudy numbers and set a record during the 2008 season. Joey Devine, a former 1st-round selection by the Atlanta Braves out of North Carolina State, finally made good use of his closer-worthy stuff after a change of scenery. Devine posted huge strikeout rates in the minors (13.18 K/9), but his control (4.03 BB/9) held him back and he never really got much of an opportunity in several cups of coffee with the Braves from 2005 to 2007. In fact, most Braves fans will probably remember Devine for being the first pitcher in major league history to give up grand slams in his first two appearances.

With the Braves looking for an everyday centerfielder, Devine was shipped to the A’s in exchange for Mark Kotsay last winter. Given his first extended big-league opportunity, Devine would go on to stake his claim to the late innings in Oakland:

45.2 IP, 0.59 ERA, 9.66 K/9, 2.96 BB/9

Devine’s 0.59 ERA was the lowest ever for a pitcher tossing at least 40 innings. While his peripherals were very good and his Fielding Independent ERA was also excellent (1.97), Devine obviously had some bounces go his way. He did not surrender a single home run, something that will assuredly change in 2009 given his fly ball tendencies (38.8 GB%). Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA(XFIP), which uses an average HR/FB rate, we find that Devine’s ERA “should” have been 3.28 once we account for the fluky home run luck.

Devine’s stuff is plenty good, as he utilizes a 93.1 MPH fastball and a biting 81 MPH slider. As Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog shows, Devine’s heater has a solid combination of horizontal (5.29 inches) and vertical (9.3 inches) movement. His slider also gets a ton of horizontal break (5.53 inches) away from righties.

If there’s a long-term concern regarding Devine, it’s his possible susceptibility to southpaw batters. During his minor league career, he allowed a .308 average to lefties, walking 6.80 batters per nine innings. As this photo nicely shows, Devine has a low, almost side-arm delivery that gives left-handers a good long look at the ball. However, in 109 career PA versus lefties in the majors, Devine has posted a .661 OPS.

Devine also missed nearly two months with a strained elbow, which could be related to a timing problem in his delivery. As this photo shows, Devine’s arm is in a horizontal position at “foot strike” (the point at which his front foot lands). Ideally, you’d like the arm to be in a high-cocked/ready (vertical) position when that foot lands. Devine’s timing issue likely puts more stress on his elbow than need be.

Joey Devine is an intriguing talent, possessing a nasty fastball/slider combo that could lead to closing opportunities if Huston Street departs via trade. Keep an eye on the Oakland rumor mill this offseason. If Street leaves, you might want to target Devine as an efficient alternative to bigger-name relievers who will be selected earlier on draft day.

Counting stats can be deceiving. A guy smacks 25-30 home runs, drives in 100 runs, and all of the sudden some are ready to anoint that player as a breakout star. Case in point: Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy got his career off to a blistering start in late 2005, and followed that up with a 100+ RBI season in 2006. However, Frenchy’s very liberal approach at the plate has actually made him a below-average player (in terms of WPA/LI) for the last three years running. Let’s take a closer look at Francoeur’s career to see where he stands following a putrid 2008 season.

Francoeur was called up in July of 2005, and proceeded to rake enough to land on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the caption, “The Natural”:

2005: .300/.336/.549, 4.1BB%, 22.6 K%, .249 ISO, 19.1 LD%, .341 BABIP, 0.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur did legitimately crush the ball as a 21 year-old in the majors, but “The Natural” also received help from a lofty .341 BABIP. Given his line drive rate, we would expect his BABIP to come in around .311 (LD% +.120 is the formula for expected BABIP). If we subtract those 30 points of average, Frenchy is left with a .270/.306/.519 line. Still impressive overall, but clearly pointing toward a need for much improved plate discipline.

2006 would bring with it plenty of regression to the mean, as a reversal of his luck on balls in play and continued hacking conspired to make Francoeur among the worst everyday players in the big leagues:

2006: .260/.293/.449, 3.4BB%, 20.3K%, .189 ISO, 18.3 LD%, .286 BABIP, -0.07 WPA/LI

Jeff’s low, low walk rate managed to slip anyway, and without the hefty BABIP, his production fell considerably. His power also dipped, as his Isolated Power (ISO) fell by 60 points. Further adding to his mess of a plate approach, Francoeur hit a grounder 45% of the time (39.7% in ’05) and he had a sky-high 20 infield/fly ball % (IF/FB%). In other words, he was rolling over the ball and getting jammed with alarming frequency.

Francoeur’s 2007 campaign brought some hope that he would occasionally lay off of pitches in the dirt, low-flying planes and unsuspecting birds:

2007: .293/.338/.444, 6.1BB%, 20.1K% .151 ISO, 19.4 LD%, .342 BABIP, -0.51 WPA/LI

Sure, a walk rate slightly over six is still tepid, but that’s considerable improvement for Frenchy. On the negative side, his ISO fell again from .189 to .151, and his BABIP was rather high. Given his line-drive rate, his expected BABIP was .314. If we take those 28 points off, his line adjusts down to .265/.310/.416. That’s mild, but he was still just 23 and at least gave some sign that he might improve his plate approach to an acceptable level.

Coming into the 2008 season, there were still plenty of people on the Francoeur bandwagon (myself included). As Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan wrote, “Take a player who has top-tier tools (save speed), who has lots of experience at a young age, and who has clearly improved the biggest hole in his game—that’s a player who projects for a significant leap forward.”

That great leap forward must have been into a ditch, as Francoeur’s 2008 season went down as the ugliest of his career:

2008: .239/.294/.359, 6.1BB%, 18.5K%, .120 ISO, 20.7 LD%, .277 BABIP, -2.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur went from a dark horse MVP candidate in the eyes of some to a Mississippi Brave during the course of the season, as he was demoted to the Southern League for a brief period of time. He did experience pretty awful luck on balls in play, as his expected BABIP (.327) was much higher than his actual BABIP (.277). If we adjust for that, his line improves to .289/.344/.409. Where’s the power, though?

So, Jeff Francoeur’s 2008 season wasn’t quite as gruesome as it first appears. But is he making any strides in terms of his plate discipline, or is he destined to remain an unrestrained hacker?

Frenchy has swung at fewer pitches for three years running:

Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 61.56%
2007: 57.38%
2008: 56%

However, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Francoeur has swung at fewer pitches overall, but he’s done so by swinging at fewer offerings within the strike zone:

Z-Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 85.83%
2007: 80.42%
2006: 76.12%

Frenchy has also made virtually no progress in terms of laying off of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone:

Outside Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 36.67%
2007: 36.7%
2008: 36.31%

So, Francoeur is swinging at fewer strikes while still fishing outside of the zone far too regularly. If anything, it appears as though his plate discipline is actually getting worse. Coupled with a puzzling loss of power (his ISO has dropped at least 30 points each year), it becomes very difficult to recommend Frenchy as anything more than a late-round flyer. He’ll still be just 25 next season, but until he can prove that he has some semblance of pitch recognition, it’s best to let someone else become frustrated while waiting for Francoeur to break out.