Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Scott Kazmir is exceptionally talented yet eminently frustrating. Still just 25 years of age heading into the 2009 season, Kazmir has a long history of missing bats (career 9.75 K/9) and walking the yard (4.13 BB/9). Those trends continued in 2008 (9.81 BB/9, 4.14 BB/9), but they way in which the former Mets farmhand went about getting those familiar results continued to change rather drastically. The 6 foot, 190 pounder has posted very similar ERA’s over the past three seasons (3.24, 3.48 and 3.49, respectively), but his pitching style and underlying skills have morphed from 2006 to the present day. It may sound strange to say, but the current version of Scott Kazmir scarcely resembles the guy who took the hill at the Trop a few years back.

By 2006, Kazmir had established himself as a lefty with plus velocity, a wipeout slider and a decent changeup. He used his 91.9 MPH heater 56.2% of the time, relying heavily on his nasty 84 MPH breaking pitch (28.6%) while also utilizing an 82 MPH changeup 15.2% of the time. Punching out 10.14 batters per nine innings and issuing 3.24 BB/9, Kazmir posted a sparkling 3.36 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA).

The shift in Kazmir’s pitch selection began in 2007, as he began to rely more heavily upon his fastball. Kazmir threw his 92.1 MPH cheese to batters 69.6% of the time, a hefty increase of 13.4% from the previous year. While he threw his 81.4 MPH change a little bit less (11.6%), it was Kazmir’s 83.7 MPH slider that took a considerable drop in usage (18.8%). Kazmir’s FIP ERA remained strong (3.45), as a small spike in K’s (10.41 per nine innings) offset an increase in walks (3.88 BB/9).

Kazmir took his fastball preference to even greater extremes this past season, as he threw his 91.7 MPH heater a whopping 75.3% of the time. Among starters tossing at least 150 innings, only perennial disappointment Daniel Cabrera and sinkerballers Aaron Cook and Mike Pelfrey utilized the fastball more often. Kazmir essentially scrapped his once-signature slider, throwing the 82 MPH pitch just 9.6%. Instead, he used a 78.8 MPH changeup as his preferred secondary offering, pulling the string on 15.1% of his total pitches.

By looking at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, it becomes apparent that Kazmir didn’t feel as comfortable using his slider in strikeout situations and in full counts:

0-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (58.7%), Slider (39.7%), Changeup (1.6%)

2008: Fastball (72.8%), Slider (24.3%) , Changeup (2.9%)

3-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (63%), Slider (26.1%) , Changeup (10.9%)

2008: Fastball (91.5%), Slider (2.1%) , Changeup (6.4%)

Kazmir preferred his fastball in situations where he got well ahead of the batter, and when he absolutely needed to throw a strike, he basically shunned his slider.

In 2008, Kazmir’s FIP ERA ascended to 4.37. The primary culprit was a big spike in home runs allowed. After posting HR/9 marks of 0.93 and 0.78 in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir tossed way too many pitches that ended up as souvenirs in ’08 (1.36 HR/9). One might be inclined to write the increased home runs off, believing it was just an anomaly. However, Kazmir was not particularly unlucky on flyballs, as his HR/FB ratio of 12% was just slightly above the norm. The cause of the homer increase can be tied to his becoming one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the majors. After compiling groundball rates of 42% and 43.1% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir put the ball in the dirt just 30.8% of the time in 2008. That was the lowest rate of any starter pitching at least 150 frames.

You wouldn’t really know it by taking a quick glance at his stat sheet, but Kazmir has changed his game plan quite a bit over the past few seasons. What sort of effect will these changes have on him going forward? Let’s deal with them one by one…

Increased fastball usage, far fewer sliders

Kazmir threw his heater nearly 20% more in 2008 than he did in 2006, rarely utilizing his once bread-and-butter slider. It’s difficult to say what sort of role Kazmir’s elbow injury played in his pitch usage. Was he rarely breaking out the slider because it put increased pressure on his tender arm? If so, will he return to throwing it more often in 2009, or will he continue to favor the less stressful changeup? Also, what sort of effect did Kazmir’s fastball love have on his walk rate? Was his pitch selection the cause of his even more pronounced control issues, or was that the product of his elbow troubles?

Using the changeup as his favored offspeed pitch

If Kazmir prefers the changeup, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The speed differential between his fastball and change has increased over the past few seasons (9.9 MPH in ’06, 10.7 MPH in ’07, and 12.9 MPH in ’08), and the pitch features excellent vertical drop:

Fastball : 5.92 X, 10.48 Z
Changeup: 7.46 X, 4.1 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Kazmir’s change shows both fading and tumbling action, dropping over 6 inches further than his fastball. Combine that movement with a solid speed differential, and Kazmir’s change has the makings of a knockout pitch.

Flyball tendencies

It was one season of data, but Kazmir became the most extreme flyball pitcher in the big leagues. Should those tendencies stick, he’s going to surrender plenty of longballs again in 2009. With starts coming against forces such as Fenway Park’s Green Monster (doubles park factor from 2006-2008: 143), The Rogers Centre (HR park factor: 113) and Camden Yards (HR park factor: 123), putting the ball in the air so often is probably not advisable.

Kazmir posted another shiny ERA in 2008, but his controllable skills took a bit of a backslide as he battled his control and gave up home runs aplenty. A .275 BABIP and an extraordinarily high 82.5 LOB% masked his problems, but Kazmir could disappoint if he takes to the air with such frequency again in 2009.

Who would have thought, entering the 2008 season, that Armando Galarraga would end up being Detroit’s most consistent starting pitcher? With Justin Verlander stranding an unusually low percentage of runners, Jeremy Bonderman (whose career divide between his peripherals and ERA would make Javier Vazquez blush) succumbing to injury, Kenny Rogers (a career-worst 5.22 FIP ERA) looking cooked and Nate Robertson suffering from horrible luck on balls put in play (.343 BABIP), Galarraga was the only starter to post a sub-four ERA for a group that authored a combined 5.03 ERA.

Galarraga had previously been part of a blockbuster deal, as the Washington Nationals shipped him as well outfielders Terrmel Sledge and Brad Wilkerson to the Rangers for Alfonso Soriano in December of 2005. Galarraga’s trade from Texas to the Tigers, however, was much less splashy. Designated for assignment by the pitching-starved Rangers, Galarraga moved to the Motor City for outfielder Michael Hernandez, who went undrafted out of Oklahoma State in 2006. Galarraga was seen as possessing enough talent to help fill in at the back of a big league pitching staff, but he had missed nearly all of the 2002 and 2003 seasons following Tommy John surgery, as well as 2006 while battling a shoulder injury.

While Hernandez failed to impress at High-A and moved on to the Mets organization, Galarraga posted a 3.73 ERA for the Tigers in 28 starts. His 13-7 record was a breath of fresh air for a club that rarely received stellar starting performances. Regardless of what occurs from this point forward, the Tigers received one year of above-average pitching essentially for free. That’s a great deal no matter how you cut it. Unfortunately, there are plenty of reasons to expect Galarraga’s good fortune to come to an end in 2009.

The 6-4, 180 pounder compiled a superficially impressive ERA, but there was a Grand Canyon-sized gap between his actual ERA and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). Galarraga’s FIP ERA was a much less impressive 4.88, over 1.1 runs higher than his actual mark. That dichotomy between his ERA and FIP ERA (-1.15 runs) was the largest in the majors, surpassing Daisuke Matsuzaka (-1.13) and Johan Santana (-0.97). Galarraga didn’t miss that many bats, striking out 6.35 batters per nine innings, and his control was just fair (3.07 BB/9). He was somewhat unlucky in the home run department (his HR/FB% was 13), but even using XFIP from The Hardball Times to adjust for that, his ERA came in at a less shiny 4.59. So, Galarraga struck out just slightly more than the league average, showed ordinary control and gave up his fair share of longballs. How did he manage to outperform his controllable skills by such a large margin?

The answer lies in Galarraga’s BABIP and Strand Rate (LOB%). The soon-to-be 27 year-old posted a minuscule .247 BABIP. Among starting pitchers, only David Bush and Tim Wakefield received more auspicious bounces on balls put in play. Galarraga also stranded runners at a 75.6% clip, above the 70-72% average in that category. When more of those balls put in play fail to reach gloves and his strand rate presumably ticks down, Galarraga’s ERA is going to climb.

As a free-talent acquisition, Armando Galarraga was an excellent value for the Tigers. However, his solid 2008 campaign looks more like a mirage than a harbinger of things to come. Let someone else pick Galarraga and end up disappointed with the results.

The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff is essentially in disarray. While bailouts have become commonplace in the nation’s capital, the Nats’ rotation might need government assistance more than all other corporate entities combined. Washington’s starting corps could be considered a toxic asset; when a rapidly descending Scott Olsen may very well be your club’s best hope at cultivating an ace, something is seriously wrong.

While Washington’s compilation of semi-prospects and retreads posted a combined 4.97 starters’ ERA in 2008, there was one home-grown bright spot. John Lannan, a little-known 11th round selection out of Siena College in 2005, pieced together a solid rookie season. Lannan went from “that guy who broke Chase Utley’s hand” to one of the more effective young starters in the NL, posting a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings of work.

Never known for his overpowering stuff, Lannan mixed in five different offerings to opposing batters. He supplemented his soft 87.5 MPH fastball (thrown 60.1% of the time) with a 80.3 MPH slider (15.5%), 74.5 MPH curveball (12.4%), 80.9 MPH changeup (10.6%) and the occasional 86.5 MPH cutter (1.3%).

So, Lannan is a five-pitch lefty with a good rookie season under his belt. He should only get better, right? Well, not so fast.

Lannan did a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground (54.2 GB%), but his peripheral stats (5.79 K/9, 3.56 BB/9) do not match up with his ERA. On top of a mild K rate and ordinary control, Lannan benefitted from a .273 BABIP (11th-lowest among qualified starters).

He experienced unusually poor luck on flyballs (his HR/FB% of 15.2 was 3-4% higher than average), but we can use Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times to better gauge Lannan’s abilities. XFIP uses strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate (rooting out Lannan’s poor luck on flyballs) to give us a more accurate account of a pitcher’s controllable skills. Lannan’s XFIP was 4.47. That’s actually slightly below the NL average ERA of 4.43 for starting pitchers.

One might look at John Lannan and see a 24 year-old southpaw who just posted a sub-4 ERA season, and therefore might expect better things in 2009. However, Lannan’s finesse style and just average ability to paint the corners (his career minor league BB/9 is 3.51) portend to a good deal of regression in 2009. Lannan could use his eclectic repertoire and groundball tendencies to post an ERA somewhere in the mid-four’s, but he’s more mid-rotation material than future ace.

Since bursting onto the scene as a precocious 20 year-old and helping the Florida Marlins capture a World Series title in 2003, Miguel Cabrera has remained an offensive powerhouse. A career .309/.381/.541 hitter, Cabrera has already belted 175 home runs and has compiled over 20 wins above average, per WPA/LI. A look at Cabrera’s most comparable players at Baseball-Reference reveals a who’s-who of Cooperstown legends. His most similar batters through age 25 include Ken Griffey Jr., Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Vladimir Guerrero and Al Kaline. Five Hall of Fame hitters, another surefire one in Griffey and a possible member in Vlad? That’s impressive.

With all of that praise rightly given, there is one facet of Cabrera’s performance that is trending in the wrong direction. While the 6-4, 240 pounder remained an extremely dangerous hitter upon transitioning to the AL (popping a league-best 37 home runs and typing his career-high ISO of .245), he has gradually become less selective at the plate. After posting a leviathan .430 OBP in 2006 and drawing walks at a healthy 13% clip, Cabrera posted a .401 OBP in 2007 (11.8 BB%) and a mild .349 OBP in his first season with the Tigers in 2008 (8.3%). Generally speaking, most hitters improve their plate discipline with more experience at the major league level. However, in Cabrera’s case, the exact opposite appears to be occurring. He started off with a very refined approach, but has gradually morphed into a free swinger:

Cabrera’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008:

2006: 23.1%
2007: 30.2%
2008: 34.2%

Cabrera took as many cuts at bad balls as any hitter this past year, swinging at the 13th-highest percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, this more aggressive approach has coincided with an increase in Cabrera’s First-Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%). Cabrera has found himself behind in the count 0-and-1 or has put the ball in play on the first pitch more and more:

Cabrera’s F-Strike%, 2006-2008:

2006: 54.2%
2007: 60%
2008: 64.9%

Among qualified batters, only noted hackers Corey Hart (whose exploits have been covered), Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez and Jeff Francoeur (also covered here before) put themselves in a hole more often in 2008 than did Cabrera.

Showing less restraint at the dish, Cabrera’s incredibly lofty numbers have dipped to….well, they’re still pretty lofty. But, using one of Fangraphs’ new toys, wOBA, we can see how the lack of walks has put something of a dent in his performance. wOBA is a linear weight formula that assigns specific run values to each hitting event, giving us a very accurate account of just how much a hitter contributed to his team. It basically values these outcomes relative to each other, assigning proper weight to each outcome (for instance, a home run is going to be assigned a little more than twice the run value of a single). wOBA is aligned to look like OBP, so the league average wOBA is always the league average OBP for a given year. For a more complete explanation, see Dave Cameron’s post here.

From 2006 to 2008, Cabrera has posted wOBA’s of .413, .402 and .376, respectively. Using the league average wOBA, we can find how many runs above average Cabrera contributed in each season. To find this, you subtract Cabrera’s wOBA from the league average, divide that number by 1.15 and multiply by the number of plate appearances he got each season.

2006

Cabrera’s wOBA: .413
LG AVG wOBA: .334

.413 (Cabrera’s wOBA)-.334 (NL average wOBA) = .079 (Difference between Cabrera and the LG AVG)
.079/1.15 = .0687 (Runs above average per PA)
.0687 X 676 (Cabrera’s PA in 2006) = 46.4 runs above average

Using that same approach, here are Cabrera’s RAA totals for 2007 and 2008:

2007

Cabrera’s wOBA: .402
LG AVG wOBA: .334

40.2 runs above average

2008

Cabrera’s wOBA: .376
LG AVG wOBA: .335

24.4 runs above average

In the course of a few seasons, Cabrera has gone from four-and-a-half wins above average with his bat to about two-and-half. This drop is also reflected in his WPA/LI, which has fallen from 5.41 in 2006, down to 3.5 in 2007 and 2.45 this past year. Cabrera is still very effective, to be sure, but that’s a pretty steep drop.

None of this is to suggest that Miguel Cabrera is someone that you want to avoid come draft day. But, given his shift down the defensive spectrum to first base (he’ll qualify at third base this year, but that’s probably it) and his declining plate discipline, perhaps Cabrera isn’t quite the value he might seem upon first glance. Cabrera has all the talent in the world, but he’s going to have to show a little more patience if he wants to make good on the Hall of Fame comparisons bestowed upon him.

Occasionally, a pitcher comes along who is so good, so utterly dominant, that people stop what they’re doing to watch his starts. The day that the pitcher takes the hill becomes must-see TV for every baseball fan, an event. Twins lefty Francisco Liriano was one of those guys a few years back. Pilfered from the San Francisco Giants organization in 2003 (along with Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser) in exchange for A.J. Pierzynski, Liriano annihilated the American League in 2006. He punched out 10.71 batters per nine innings, while also displaying command beyond his 22 years (2.38 BB/9). In 121 innings, Liriano posted a sparkling 2.55 Fielding Independent ERA and a 2.59 WPA/LI (WPA/LI is a cumulative stat, but he still managed to rank 12th among all starters in that category).

Liriano was cartoonishly difficult to hit in ’06. While he possessed a high-octane 94.7 MPH fastball, Liriano threw the pitch just 43.6% of the time. Instead, he relied heavily upon a sinister 87.7 MPH slider (37.6%) while also showcasing a promising 83.5 MPH changeup (18.7%). Opposing batters made contact with the Dominican Republic native just 65.4% of the time, by far the lowest rate among pitchers tossing at least 120 innings. Cole Hamels, at 72.3%, was a very distant second, and Liriano’s then-teammate Johan Santana trailed him by nearly 10 percent (74.8%).

But, just as quickly as Liriano burst on to the scene, he was gone. He felt some discomfort in an August 7th start versus Detroit, and was subsequently placed on the DL with a sore left elbow and forearm. Liriano would return in September, but he lasted just two innings against Oakland before he “heard something pop” while pumping a fastball to Bobby Kielty. The 6-2, 225 pounder soon went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, missing the entire 2007 season.

Liriano got off to a rocky start upon returning in 2008 (13 runs allowed and a 7/13 K/BB ratio in his first three outings) and was subsequently shipped to the minors, but everything from that point on was a step in the right direction. The 25 year-old was often dominant at AAA Rochester, with 8.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9 in 118 innings pitched. Whether due to service-time issues, reservations about sticking Liriano into a playoff race and piling up innings in his first post-surgical season, or just plain masochism, the Twins kept punching bag Livan Hernandez in the rotation until early August while Liriano mowed down International League hitters. Liriano finally re-joined the Twins on August 3rd, and while his numbers weren’t in the same stratosphere as his work in 2006, he was still pretty darned good.

In 76 frames with Minnesota, Liriano struck out 7.93 batters per nine innings, while showing some wildness typically seen from TJ patients in their first season back (3.79 BB/9). Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, which calculates ERA based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, we find that Liriano posted a 4.40 XFIP. That’s not dominant, but keep in mind that we’re dealing with a pretty small sample, one somewhat skewed by Liriano’s shaky three-start beginning. From his recall in August to the end of the season, the southpaw posted a 60/19 K/BB ratio in 65.2 IP. While once again cautioning that 76 innings is a small amount of data to be working with, it is worth noting that pre-Tommy John Liriano was a groundball-centric pitcher (55.3 GB% in ’06), while post-TJ Liriano put the ball in the air quite a bit at Rochester (42 GB%) and with the Twins (41.6 GB%).

In terms of stuff, Liriano did not feature the mid-90’s gas that we had become accustomed to. His average fastball velocity was 90.9 MPH, down nearly 4 MPH from 2006. His slider was also thrown softer, coming in at 83.7 MPH (down 4 MPH). Liriano’s changeup decreased in speed, from 83.5 MPH to 82 MPH, a good thing considering it helped him retain a speed differential between the fastball and the change. Liriano’s pitch selection was also changed, as he relied more on his fastball (53.6%) at the expense of his slider (26.4%). His usage of the changeup increased slightly, to 20%. Opponents still found Liriano to be plenty hard to hit, as his 75.5 Contact% ranked 21st in the majors among those tossing at least 70 innings.

Unfortunately, there is no pitch F/X data for Liriano’s 2006 season, as the technology was not implemented until 2007. However, we can use Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog to get a feel for how much life Liriano had on his pitches this past season:

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Fastball: 6.53 X, 9.88 Z
Slider: -1.51 X, 1.34 Z
Changeup: 9.08 X, 6.4 Z
2-Seam FB: 9.84 X, 7.1 Z

(I know what the data classifies the last group of pitches as splitters, but given the 90+ MPH velocity and the extra tailing action, they would appear to be 2-seam fastballs).

Liriano might not have possessed his vintage velocity in his first season back from reconstructive surgery, but his offerings still had plenty of hop. His 4-seam fastball showcased a good deal of vertical movement (9.88 Z, above the 9.78 average) while also displaying over six and a half inches of tailing action in on lefthanders. His two-seamer showed a ton of running action in on the hands of lefties as well. Liriano’s trademark slider was breaking away from southpaws (-1.7 X), and his changeup looks like it could be an excellent pitch, with plenty of fading and dropping action away from right-handed batters. It’s also important to keep in mind that Liriano’s stuff still could rebound a little bit further with an offseason of rest and training; what we saw at the end of the 2008 season is not necessarily representative of what Liriano will throw in the years to come.

The pitcher who burst onto the scene in 2006 might never return, but the current version of Francisco Liriano is extremely talented in his own right. If his control takes a step forward, as is the case with many TJ pitchers in their second year back, look out. Sill just 25 and possessing a full arsenal of pitches, Liriano should re-establish himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL in 2009.

Jorge Campillo made his Atlanta Braves debut in 2008- a mere 12 seasons after the team originally signed him out of Mexico.

The Tijuana native has weathered one of the more circuitous routes of any pitcher in professional baseball. The Braves signed Campillo all the way back in February of 1996 and loaned him to the Mexican League later that year. Unimpressed with Campillo’s finesse style, Atlanta released the 6-1, 225 pounder that following January.

Campillo would spend all of the 1997-2004 seasons in the Mexican League, hoping to latch on with another major league club. The Seattle Mariners finally came calling prior to the 2005 season, inking Campillo to a minor league deal. He held his own at AAA Tacoma and got a cup of coffee with the M’s toward the end of the season. However, it wouldn’t be long before Campillo’s perseverance was tested yet again, as he had to go under the knife for Tommy John Surgery shortly thereafter, missing the majority of the 2006 season.

Control is considered to be the last aspect of a pitcher’s game to resurface following Tommy John, but Campillo continued to paint the corners upon returning to Tacoma in 2007. In 149.1 innings pitched, the embattled right-hander posted a 3.72 Fielding Independent ERA, issuing a tidy 2.35 BB/9 and striking out a mild 5.97 batters per nine innings. Despite his solid work and the dearth of quality starting options in Seattle (this was, after all, a team that gave a combined 47 starts to Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez), Campillo tossed just 13.1 frames for the M’s.

Campillo’s adventurous career came full-circle before the 2008 season, as he latched on with the Braves once again. The 29 year-old was certainly not in the team’s immediate plans to start the year, but a rash of injuries in the starting rotation afforded Campillo the opportunity to get his first extended trial in the majors. In 158.2 innings (including 25 starts), Campillo compiled a 3.91 ERA, with 6.07 K/9 and a sharp 2.16 BB/9.

Befitting of a pitcher who has managed to keep his head above water in professional baseball for 12 seasons, Campillo throws a cornucopia of different offerings. He utilized his fastball just 37.1% of the time, not surprising considering that its velocity (85.6 MPH) would only make Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux envious. Campillo also dished out an 81.1 MPH slider (25%), a slow 70.3 MPH curve (11.1%) and a seldom-used 81.6 MPH cutter (1.6%). His bread-and-butter pitch, however, was a 74.4 MPH changeup with screwball-like action (used 25.1% of the time). Campillo’s change looks like something that Bugs Bunny would whip out against the Gas House Gorillas, with nearly nine and a half inches of horizontal movement away from lefthanders. With that pitch in his back pocket, the very experienced rookie showed a reverse platoon split. Campillo gave up plenty of extra base hits to right-handers (.274/.300/.480), but he subdued southpaws to the tune of .249/.310/.368.

Throwing just about everything but a knuckleball, Campillo was surprisingly adept at generating swings on pitches outside of the strike zone. His 31 O-Swing% ranked ninth among pitchers tossing at least 150 innings, sandwiched between Dan Haren and Cole Hamels. Campillo also got ahead of hitters as often as anyone, with a 64.3 First Pitch Strike % (F-Strike%) that ranked ninth among hurlers throwing 150+ innings. With so many batters falling behind 0-and-1 or putting the ball in play on the first pitch, Campillo threw just 3.8 pitches per plate appearance.

While he enjoyed a solid rookie season and is currently slated to open the year as Atlanta’s second starter behind Jair Jurrjens, there are some reasons to view Campillo in a skeptical light. A flyball-oriented pitcher (38.1 GB%), Campillo surrendered slightly over one home run per nine innings this past season despite a low 9.4 HR/FB%. HR/FB% tends to stick around 11-12% for starters, so Campillo will likely see a few more of his pitches end up as souvenirs in 2009. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from the Hardball Times, which predicts a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, we find that Campillo’s 3.91 ERA was kind of lucky: his XFIP was 4.40. That’s still useful, but the half-run increase takes some of the shine off of Campillo’s season, as his XFIP is just ever slightly above the 4.43 NL average for starters.

While there are statistical reasons as to why Campillo is unlikely to sustain his 2008 level of performance, there are also more speculative, scouting-type assertions that could be made. Prior to 2008, Campillo had scarcely seen the majors, and it seems reasonable to suggest that teams didn’t have the most comprehensive scouting reports on what he threw and when he threw it. Add in Campillo’s sharp command and bushel of pitches, and that puts opposing batters in quite a bind. In his last 11 starts spanning from August to early October, however, Campillo surrendered 39 runs in 57.2 innings, with a 37/17 K/BB ratio. Did teams “figure him out” as his repertoire and tendencies became more apparent? It’s hard to say, but that is a possibility.

Jorge Campillo, with as deep a pitching arsenal as any starter, is extremely fun to watch. However, his finesse, flyball-centric style is enough to give fantasy owners second thoughts. Those tendencies, coupled with his late-season drubbing, cast some doubt upon the repeatability of his performance. Campillo could remain a mildly useful, 4.50 ERA-type pitcher, but expecting another sub-four ERA season would be a mistake.

Prior to 2008, Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit had endured something of a snake-bitten career. A well-regarded prep prospect coming out of the state of Washington, Doumit was snatched up by the Bucs in the 2nd round of the 1999 amateur entry draft. The 6-1, 210 pounder displayed his potent bat throughout his minor league career (.296/.368/.459), but he had his fair share of detractors as well. In addition to a rough defensive reputation that earned him the ignoble nickname “Ryan No-Mitt”, Doumit had a difficult time staying on the field. As the 2004 Baseball America Prospect Handbook noted, “injuries to his back, knee and hand have dogged Doumit since he turned pro.” Despite the raw receiving skills and the history of bumps and bruises, BA still asserted that Doumit had “the stuff to be a No. 1 catcher in the majors.”

The switch-hitter made his big league debut in 2005, batting .255/.324/.398 in 257 PA. He appeared in 50 games as a catcher, while also seeing a little time in right field. While Doumit appeared positioned to spend a good deal of the 2006 season in the majors, injuries once again felled him, as he hit the DL with a strained hamstring in both April and June. Doumit only got 178 PA during the injury-marred season, batting a tame .208/.322/.389. Between the hamstring injury, a lack of confidence by management in his defensive skills and Ronny Paulino’s batting average-filled rookie campaign, Doumit spent the majority of his time at first base. In his first two seasons in the majors, Doumit drew walks at a 6.8% clip and struck out a lofty 23.7% of the time.

In 2007, Doumit finally showed the offensive promise that his minor league dossier suggested, batting .274/.341/.472 in 279 PA. His control of the strike zone remained about the same (8 BB%, 23.4 K%), but his .198 Isolated Power was mighty impressive for a guy capable of playing behind the plate. Of course, the Pittsburgh regime didn’t seem to recognize that last point, as Doumit spent more time in right field than he did at catcher. Injuries once again kept Doumit from taking the field on a regular basis, as he missed time with a sprained wrist in August and a high ankle sprain in September.

Following a front-office purge last offseason, Doumit was given a clean slate. He and Nate McLouth were both afforded the opportunity to shed old organizational labels (Craig Wilson redux for Doumit, 4th outfielder for McLouth). Realizing that Doumit’s bat could make him a premium backstop (as opposed to an offensively average, defensively-challenged corner outfielder), GM Neal Huntington, manager John Russell and the rest of the new guys allowed the 27 year-old to prove himself as a capable receiver.

While he’ll never earn great marks behind the plate, Doumit was adequate afield and mashed his way into everyday playing time. He did serve yet another DL stint with a fractured thumb in May, but his .318/.357/.501 line in 465 PA surely caught the attention of fantasy owners everywhere. In addition to showing plenty of sock (.183 ISO), Doumit improved his strikeout rate significantly. While he struck out well over 20% of the time during his first few seasons in the majors, Doumit whiffed just 12.8% in 2008. Doumit didn’t draw many walks (5.1 BB%) and his Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) jumped from 25% in ’07 to 30.6% in ’08. Ordinarily, one would be worried about those hacking tendencies. However, in Doumit’s case, there appears to be a method to his aggressive approach. Each season in the majors, Doumit has improved his Contact% and O-Contact% markedly:

2005: 72.7 Contact%, 39.1 O-Contact%
2006: 74.3 Contact%, 48.8 O-Contact%
2007: 77.6 Contact%, 54.2 O-Contact%
2008: 81.9 Contact%, 66.0 O-Contact%

Doumit is chasing more pitches out of the zone, but he is also putting the bat on the ball far more frequently. With well-above average power for the position, a lower whiff rate and a line-drive bat (23.4 LD%), Doumit has the makings of an elite fantasy catcher. However, if you draft him, have a solid backup plan in mind. Those who wear the tools of ignorance take a beating, and Doumit’s injury history is too lengthy to ignore. Doumit has all the offensive skills to be an asset, but there’s just no telling if how often he’ll be able to take the field.

While buccaneers elsewhere are enjoying plenty of success, the Pittsburgh Pirates continue to struggle mightily. A new, more progressive front office regime is in place, but the route back to contention (much like shipping route in the Gulf of Aden) will be a long an treacherous one. Closing in on a dubious record for the most consecutive losing seasons, the Bucs must invest heavily in the player development system to once again become relevant, cultivating home-grown stars at minimal cost.

One of the few bright spots during former GM Dave Littlefield’s ill-fated tenure was the selection of left-hander Tom Gorzelanny in the 2nd round of the 2003 amateur entry draft. The Triton College product quickly established himself as one of the more promising prospects in the Pirates’ system, compiling an impressive minor league dossier that included a 3.01 ERA, 8.59 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9.

After getting a brief glimpse of the majors in 2005, Gorzelanny went on a tear at AAA Indianapolis in ’06 (99.2 IP, 3.48 K/BB ratio) and tossed 61.2 frames for the Pirates at the end of the season. The results were nothing to write home about (5.84 K/9, 4.52 BB/9) and he served a DL stint for elbow soreness in August, but he displayed a 92 MPH fastball and a pretty sharp low-80’s slider while generating a decent amount of grounders (49.2 GB%). Lefties with that sort of package do not grow on trees.

The Evergreen, Illinois native spent the entire 2007 campaign in the big league rotation, tossing a curiously high 201.2 innings (more on that later). His peripherals weren’t great (6.02 K/9, 3.03 BB/9), and his 3.88 ERA was more the reflection of a very low home run/flyball rate (HR/FB%) of 7% than stellar pitching. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from the Hardball Times, we can get a better read on Gorzelanny’s performance. XFIP uses strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run rate (HR/FB% for starting pitchers tends to hover around 11-12%) to calculate a pitcher’s ERA. Gorzelanny’s XFIP was nearly a run higher than his actual ERA, at 4.87. On top of that, his 92 MPH heater dropped to 89.9 MPH, he cut the usage of his slider to 11.2% and his GB% fell to 42.1%.

The most surprising aspect of Gorzelanny’s 2007 season was the way that he was used/abused down the stretch. Despite being in contention for positively nothing, then-manager Jim Tracy worked his 24 year-old starter unnecessarily hard, perhaps to the point of breaking him. In his article examining Chad Billingsley, Peter referenced the “Verducci Effect“, a concept developed by Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci. Verducci, using research compiled over the past several seasons, theorizes that young pitchers who are subjected to an innings total increase of 30 or more between one season and the next are more prone to injury.

In 2006, Gorzelanny tossed 99.2 innings at AAA and 61.2 innings with the Pirates, for a combined total of 161.1 IP. Considering that some people (including Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll) believe that there’s a marked difference in stress between minor league and major league innings, Gorzelanny’s innings increase between 2006 and 2007 might have actually been higher than 40.1 frames. Even if taken at face value, Gorzelanny’s workload put him squarely in the crosshairs of the “Verducci Effect.”

Perhaps in an attempt to win a few extra ballgames and save his job, Tracy seemingly pushed Gorzelanny harder as the season progressed. Gorzelanny made 11 starts over August and September, and Tracy kept his lefty out there for at least 100 pitches in eight of those starts. It’s not as though the 100+ pitch games were efficient, either: the longest Gorzelanny went in any of those games was seven innings. Not surprisingly, Gorzelanny ranked near the top of the majors in Pitcher Abuse Points, a Baseball Prospectus stat that attempts to measure the stress that pitchers are put under by higher workloads.

With that damage inflicted, Gorzelanny was an unmitigated disaster in 2008. In an injury-shortened 105.1 IP, he struck out just 5.72 batters per nine innings and issued an alarming 5.98 BB/9. Gorzelanny was crushed by the long ball, surrendering 1.71 HR/9. His HR/FB rate was somewhat high at 13.2%, but even if we normalize the HR rate, Gorzelanny’s XFIP was a macabre 6.14. His once-plus fastball continued to fade, coming in at an average speed of 88.7 MPH, and he cut his slider usage down to 7.9%. Instead, Gorzelanny heavily utilized an 82.5 MPH changeup (20.5%). Gorzelanny also continued to surrender more flyballs, with a GB% of just 40.3%. Banished to the minors in July and placed on the DL with a left middle finger injury in September, Gorzelanny endured a season that he would rather forget.

Unfortunately, the current version of Tom Gorzelanny just doesn’t look anything like the guy in the prospect catalogs. Instead of displaying low-90’s heat and a plus slider, he now showcases a much less appealing high-80’s fastball/low-80’s changeup combo, with flyball tendencies to boot. Perhaps an offseason of rest will do wonders for Gorzelanny’s battered body, but steer clear of this Pirate if he doesn’t regain his velocity, lest your fantasy season go the way of an oil tanker off the coast of Somalia.

Several years back, Miguel Tejada was one of the standard-bearers at the shortstop position. The Dominican native combined tremendous power from his stocky 5-9, 215 pound frame with an uncanny ability to put the bat on the ball. Tejada’s high-power (career .184 Isolated Power), high-contact (13.5 K%) act has allowed him to accumulate 10.61 WPA/LI during the course of his career.

Unfortunately, that star-caliber player has since left the building. While Tejada turned in an unexpectedly slick season with the glove (+7 in John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system), his power continued on a downward slope in 2008. His .131 ISO tied his career-low mark, set all the way back in 1997 when he was a fresh-faced rookie. In fact, Tejada’s slugging percentage has declined every season since 2004. Since slugging a whopping .534 that year, he has posted marks of .515 in ’05, .498 in ’06, .442 in ’07 and just .415 this past season. With a -1.27 WPA/LI, Tejada was the fifth-least productive shortstop among all qualified players in 2008.

While the 34 year-old has never been mistaken for a patient hitter (his career BB% is 6.8), Tejada took his hacking to a higher level in 2008. After drawing walks at a 7.4% clip in 2007, be posted just a 3.7 BB% this past season. Miguel swung at 53% of the pitches that he saw, putting him near the top of the majors and in the company out-machines such as Jose Guillen and Carlos Gomez. After posting an identical Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) of 28.4% in 2006 and 2007, Tejada chased 34.7% of pitches out of the strike zone in ’08. That figure was the 10th-highest among all qualified batters.

With Tejada’s power declining precipitously, opposing pitchers have become far more willing to challenge him with a fastball. As his slugging percentage has waned, Miguel has been seeing heaters with increasing frequency:

Tejada’s Percentage of Fastballs Seen, 2005-2008:

2005: 59.7%
2006: 60.7%
2007: 61.5%
2008: 66.1%

Miguel was challenged more than just about anyone in 2008, with the 9th-highest fastball percentage in the big leagues. Considering that Tejada is less of a threat to punish a fastball and deposit it in the bleachers these days, pitchers likely see less reason to pitch him so carefully. While Miguel Tejada in his peak seasons earned the veneration of hurlers everywhere, the later-career Astros version is treated more like a slap hitter.

Tejada was one heck of a player in his Oakland and Baltimore days, and perhaps there’s some hope for a bounceback- his Line Drive percentage (LD%) was still a healthy 23.4% in 2008. However, with rapidly declining pop and a willingness to swing at near anything, it’s best to evaluate Tejada based on his current merits, not his name value.

The Houston Astros farm system has devolved into something of a wasteland in recent years. In an effort to infuse as much talent as possible into the major league roster, the Astros have been rather frugal in the amateur draft and the international player market. Surrendering first and second-round picks and then failing to sign the club’s third and fourth-rounders in 2007 certainly did not help matters, either. In selling long-term relevance for short-term mediocrity, Houston has compiled a core of thirty-something players that posted a 77-84 Pythagorean Record this past season.

One product of Houston’s barren player development outlet that figured to bear fruit was Hunter Pence. Plucked out of the University of Texas-Arlington in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft, Pence quickly established himself as Houston’s most advanced batting prospect. The gangly 6-4, 210 pounder compiled an impressive .303/.376/.554 minor league line, drawing walks at a healthy clip (11.7 BB%) while keeping his strikeouts in check (19.2 K%). Rated by Baseball America as Houston’s brightest prospect, Pence made his debut in 2007 at the age of 24.

Pence’s first taste of the big leagues looked like a smashing success, as he raked to the tune of .322/.360/.539, bopping 17 home runs and posting a .217 Isolated Power (ISO) number. His 2.16 WPA/LI ranked in the top 20 among all outfielders. There were some cracks in the armor, however, as Pence’s 5.4 BB% left something to be desired and his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was an astronomical .378. Given his 19.4% line drive rate (LD%), his expected BABIP was much lower, at .314. Taking some of those extra duck snorts out of Pence’s line gives him a much less impressive .258/.296/.472 showing.

Perhaps we should have known that Pence would be in for a down season in 2008. After all, how many all-star star seasons start with a guy running straight through a glass door? Pence came pretty close to matching his adjusted 2007 line, batting .269/.318/.466. His walk rate improved ever so slightly (6.3 BB%) and his strikeout rate matched his 2007 mark (20.8%), but he didn’t have near the same good fortune on balls in play (.303 BABIP). And, troublingly, Pence failed to hit the ball with authority, posting a feeble 13.9 LD%. That figure ranked dead-last among all qualified batters. Pence’s WPA/LI fell over two wins, to -0.03.

Though Pence ostensibly improved his plate discipline, the underlying numbers suggest that he actually took a slight step backward. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) climbed from 29.8% in ’07 to 31.1%, and his percentage of pitches swung at within the strike zone (Z-Swing%) fell from 75.3% to 71.5%. Swinging at more balls and taking more strikes: that’s a recipe for quick outs.

Pitchers are well aware of Pence’s proclivity to expand his strike zone. The 25 year-old saw the lowest percentage of fastballs in the majors, getting a heater just 49.8% of the time in 2008. Instead of giving him something straight, most hurlers fed Pence a steady diet of sliders, hoping to coax a misguided swing out of him. Pence got a slider 28.3% of the time in 2008, also the highest rate in the majors and nearly four percent higher than second-place Dan Uggla (24.7%). As the scouting reports began to circulate, pitchers noticed Pence’s tendency to chase the hard breaking ball and exploited it.

Pitchers have clearly found a weakness in Pence’s approach, and will continue to throw sliders aplenty until he proves that he can show restraint and avoid the temptation to go fishing outside of the strike zone. If Pence wants to improve his sliding production, he’s going to have to lay off of the slider (and avoid those tricky sliding doors, of course).