Earlier this week, we tore through A-ball and illuminated the best and the brightest farm products in the Florida State, Carolina and California Leagues. Now, it’s time to take a step up the organizational ladder and begin our examination of some of the more promising batting prospects at the Double A Level. You’ll notice two additional bits of information added to the player profiles since our look at the California League: a Park Adjusted Line (PAL), which neutralizes a player’s stats, and a Major League Equivalency (MLE), which gives us a rough estimate of how that player projects to the big leagues at this point in time. Both figures are from Minor League Splits, an invaluable resource for prospect statistics. Let’s kick off the Double-A phase with the Texas League.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

1. Dexter Fowler, Rockies: .423 wOBA (.335/.431/.515)
Age: 22
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Tulsa): Runs (1.02), Hits (1.01), Doubles (1.05), Home Runs (1.08)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .333/.429/.504
Major League Equivalent (MLE): .260/.360/.379
Baseball America Texas League Ranking: 1st overall (1st hitter)

Long considered a five-tool force by the scouting community, Fowler managed to stay healthy and cobble together his best professional season in 2008. The switch-hitter was selected by Colorado in the 14th round of the 2004 draft- he would have gone much higher, but teams were scared off by scholarship offers to play basketball at Harvard and baseball at the University of Miami. The Rockies stepped up and inked Fowler for $925,000, and the above-slot bonus looks like a huge bargain at this point. After dealing with an ankle injury in 2006 and a broken hand in 2007, Fowler stayed on the field this past season and tapped into the power supply portended by his lanky 6-4, 175 pound frame. A plus center fielder, Fowler has impressive speed but hasn’t translated that to the base paths quite as well as one would like: he’s swiped 100 bags in his minor league career, but his 67.6% success rate needs some work. Just 22 and possessing a very professional approach at the plate (he drew a walk 13.4% of the time at Tulsa, and has a career .393 OBP), Fowler made a brief cameo in the majors in 2008 and is very close to becoming a key contributor for the Rockies.

2. Elvis Andrus, Rangers: .339 wOBA (.295/.350/.367)
Age: 20 (19 during ’08 season)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frisco): R (0.99), H (0.99), 2B (0.95), HR (1.05)
PAL: .296/.351/.371
MLE: .235/.292/.290
BA Texas League Ranking: 5th overall (4th hitter)

As was the case with Seattle’s Carlos Triunfel, Andrus’ raw numbers don’t scream “future superstar.” However, one has to consider that the Venezuelan played essentially the entire 2008 season at the age of 19, yet managed to hold his own at the AA level. At a more age-appropriate level, it’s likely that Andrus would have experienced considerably greater success with the bat. The former Braves farmhand is not an especially large fellow and doesn’t project to hit for much power, but he has years of development time remaining. If he ends up providing league-average offense at the shortstop position and couples that with continued base running prowess (he stole 54 bags with a 77% success rate in ’08), then Andrus should be a pretty valuable player. On top of that, he might end up bumping curious Gold Glove selection Michael Young off of shortstop. While Young has improved from atrocious (he was over -20 runs per 150 defensive games in 2004 and 2005) to just below-average with the leather, it would probably be for the best if he shifted to the hot corner. For more on Andrus, see new Rotographs writer Ryan Glass’ piece on the young Ranger here.

3. Kyle Blanks, Padres: .408 wOBA (.325/.404/.514)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (San Antonio): R (0.93), H (0.99), 2B (1.00), HR (0.84)
PAL: .331/.408/.535
MLE: .261/.338/.399
BA Texas League Ranking: 3rd overall (3rd hitter)

Blanks is an extremely large human being. Standing 6-6 and tipping the scales at 280 pounds, Blanks was snagged as a draft-and-follow selection in the 42nd round of the 2004 draft. With a career .393 OBP, Blanks has proven that he knows how to work the count, and he has put a charge into the ball over the past two seasons by reaching or surpassing the 20 home run mark. Blanks smashed 24 homers and slugged .540 in the California League last season, but his 20 homer, .514 slugging season in 2008 was likely more impressive, once one considers that he moved up a level and played his games in a less hospitable offensive environment. Just where Blanks fits in with the Padres remains to be seen. He’s not the sluggish athlete that his XL frame suggests, but it seems unlikely that he could handle a corner outfield spot. And while the Padres are thin on premium talent, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is a tremendous player signed to an incredibly team-friendly pact (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Gonzalez will make $3M in ’09, $4.75M in 2010 and has an obvious $5.5M club option for the 2011 season). Whether the Fathers keep Gonzalez under those friendly terms or leverage that deal in a trade is uncertain. But Blanks should be a solid contributor in the majors sometime soon, be it with San Diego or elsewhere.

4. Maximiliano Ramirez, Rangers: .474 wOBA (.354/.450/.646)
Age: 24 (23 during ’08 season)
Position: C? 1B? DH?
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frisco): R (0.99), H (0.99), 2B (0.95), HR (1.05)
PAL: .354/.450/.638
MLE: .277/.377/.465
BA Texas League Ranking: 9th overall (6th hitter)

It’s pretty rare for a career .314/.414/.521 minor league hitter to exchange hands twice before he really even gets his feet wet at the major league level, but that’s precisely what has happened to Max Ramirez. Originally signed by the Braves out of Venezuela, Ramirez was shipped to the Indians in July of 2006 for “Proven Closer” Bob Wickman, then found himself switching zip codes again the next summer when the Indians sent him to Texas for Kenny Lofton. Ramirez’s long-term position remains a mystery (catcher seems exceedingly unlikely, given his scouting reports and the presence of Taylor Teagarden in Texas), but Max should mash wherever he ends up. He terrorized the TL on his way to Arlington, posting a .292 ISO and leading the circuit in wOBA.

5. Aaron Cunningham, Athletics: .397 wOBA (.317/.386/.507)
Age: 22
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Midland): R (1.02), H (1.02), 2B (1.04), HR (0.91)
PAL: .316/.385/.514
MLE: .249/.320/.384
BA Texas League Ranking: 11th overall (7th hitter)

Like Ramirez, Cunningham has also switched organizations twice before really getting acclimated to the big league level. The White Sox originally plucked the Everett Community College alum in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but the Pale Hose made a rare prospect-for-prospect swap with the Diamondbacks in June of 2007, exchanging Cunningham for second baseman Danny Richar. Cunningham would again change uniforms in December of ’07, as he was part of a massive prospect haul acquired by the Athletics in the Dan Haren swap. Cunningham turned in a pretty solid season in the Texas League, posting a .190 ISO and drawing a free pass about 10% of the time. His strikeout rate did climb to 26.5%, however. The 5-11, 195 pounder does not look like a future star, but he should provide solid production for the A’s in a corner spot sometime in the near future.

After uncovering some of the better young batsmen in the Florida State League and the Carolina League, let’s now shine the spotlight on the California League. While some of the numbers that you’ll see on this list will look downright wacky, it is important to keep in mind that the California League is the domain of offensive explosions. In particular, High Desert (Mariners) and Lancaster (Red Sox) are known for giving pitchers nightmares. With that said, let’s take a look at the top 5 in the California League, starting off with an astute trade pickup.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

California League

Singles (1.13), Doubles (1.04), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (1.04)

1. Carlos Santana, Indians: .429 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: C
Baseball America California League Ranking: 2nd overall (1st hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Inland Empire): Runs (0.93), Singles (0.98), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (0.79)

Over the past several years, perhaps no organization in the game has done a better job of swapping veteran role players for under-the-radar prospects than the Cleveland Indians. Be it shipping off Eduardo Perez for Asdrubal Cabrera and Ben Broussard for Shin-Soo Choo (thanks, Mr. Bavasi) or acquiring a prime talent like Santana from the Dodgers last summer for 36 year-old Casey Blake, the Tribe keep displaying a knack for uncovering hidden gems. The switch-hitting Santana may be the club’s best get yet: the converted outfielder put together a monster season for Inland Empire (LA’s affiliate) before the trade, batting a robust .323/.431/.563 with nearly even strikeout and walk ratios (16.5 BB%, 16.9 K%). The Dominican Republic native kept up his torrid pace upon transitioning to Cleveland’s Carolina League affiliate (Kinston), where he posted a .466 wOBA in 126 PA (Santana did not have the requisite 200 PA to qualify for the Carolina League list). As one might expect from a guy with so little experience behind the dish, Santana is still learning the nuances of the catching position. However, Baseball America notes that Santana possesses “good agility and athleticism”, and few doubt his ability to stick behind the plate.

2. Lars Anderson, Red Sox: .408 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
BA California League Ranking: 3rd overall (2nd hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Lancaster): R (1.14), H (1.08), 2B (1.04), HR (1.21)

As a lefty-swinging first baseman with good plate discipline, Anderson seems to have a good bit in common with the FSL’s top batting prospect, Logan Morrison. Boston coaxed Anderson to sign on the dotted line for $825,000 as an 18th-round selection in the 2006 draft, and the California native has impressed ever since. Sure, he did play in an absolute bandbox (for the aptly-named Jet Hawks), but it’s still pretty rare to find a 20 year-old with such a refined approach at the plate: Anderson drew walks at a 13.1% clip. Even better, Lars upped his wOBA to .430 and improved his ISO from .196 to .211 upon moving up to Portland of the AA Eastern League.

3. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: .437 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: C? 3B? 1B?
BA California League Ranking: 7th overall (3rd hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (San Jose): R (0.89), H (0.94), 2B (0.97), HR (0.87)

The switch-hitting, ambidextrous Sandoval ripped through the California League on his way to San Francisco, batting .359/.412/.597 in 301 PA. While a .387 BABIP surely aided Sandoval, he did display an interesting blend of contact ability (14.3 K%) and power, posting a .238 ISO. He continued his hot hitting and hacking in AA and in the big leagues, but he still needs quite a bit of work in terms of working the count: in 154 PA for the Giants, Sandoval swung at a mind-bending 53.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The 5-11, 245 pounder has experience behind the plate and at the infield corners, but it remains to be seen just where he ultimately settles in. He’s potentially very interesting if he can stick behind the plate, though FSU star and 2008 first-rounder Buster Posey seems to be San Francisco’s heir apparent behind the dish.

4. Carlos Triunfel, Mariners: .338 wOBA
Age: 19 (18 during ’08 season)
Position: SS (likely 3B later)
BA California League Ranking: 15th (9th hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (High Desert): R (1.13), H (1.05), 2B (1.03), HR (1.23)

Wait a minute, a .338 wOBA? In a great hitter’s park? What’s he doing on this list? Admittedly, this selection might be a slight reach, but color me impressed that a player like Triunfel can hold his head above water in High-A ball at an age where most Americans are still in high school. There’s nothing eye-popping about his numbers, but how many Aflac All-Americans or Area Code Games stars could you stick in advanced A-ball and get a .287/.336/.406 line from? Triunfel will likely have to move off of shortstop down the line, and his rocket arm fits in just fine at third base. It’s far too early to suggest just what sort of player the Dominican Republic native will become, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on. Triunfel is an example of why context is so important with regards to minor league stats: plenty of guys have better raw numbers, but most of them are three or four years older and have had far more developmental time to hone their skills.

5. Josh Reddick, Red Sox: .422 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: RF
BA California League Ranking: 8th overall (4th hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Lancaster): R (1.14), H (1.08), 2B (1.04), HR (1.21)

Reddick also had the good fortune of playing his home games in Lancaster’s wind-aided environs, but he did post a .343/.375/.593 line with a .250 ISO. Taken one round before Lars Anderson in the ’06 draft, Reddick has some juice in his left-handed swing, but he’s going to have to do a better job of working the count as he moves up the organizational ladder: he drew a walk just 5.2% of the time at Lancaster. There’s some hope on that front, though, as Reddick upped that figure to 9.3% upon reaching AA Portland.

After taking a gander at the best and brightest hitters that the pitcher-friendly Florida State League had to offer, let’s now shift our focus to the Carolina League. If you missed part one, I would suggest taking a look at the method used and the reasoning behind it. What we’re trying to do here is to see whose performance was the most impressive once important factors such as age, position and league and park offensive levels are accounted for. I should also note that I am using 200 PA as a cut-off for consideration- I used only qualified batters for the FSL, but I feel that might not have done justice to guys like Daryl Jones (Cardinals), Adrian Cardenas (Athletics, formerly Phillies) and J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays), who missed the cut.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

Carolina League

2008 league offensive levels: Singles (0.83), Doubles (1.08), Triples (0.99), Home Runs (1.01)

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: .445 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frederick): Runs (1.05), Hits (1.02), Doubles (0.97), Home Runs (1.28)

Like there was any doubt about this one. Frederick is a great power park, but Wieters’ performance was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. He switch-hits. He draws a ton of walks (16.1 BB%). He can drive the ball as far as anyone (.231 ISO). Wieters’ performance actually improved significantly upon a promotion to Double A. Think about that: his .345/.448/.576 line at Frederick was his weaker showing in 2008. He even comes with a pretty solid defensive reputation, despite being a pretty large human being (6-4, 230 pounds). Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix wondered if Wieters might be Joe Mauer with more power. This Pirates fan is going to go cry himself to sleep, haunted by memories of Daniel Moskos.

2. Tyler Flowers, White Sox: .412 wOBA
Age: 23 in January
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Myrtle Beach): R (0.98), H (1.00), 2B (0.94), HR (0.98)

Flowers enjoyed an outstanding campaign at Myrtle Beach in the Braves organization in 2008, but he was shipped to the south side of Chicago as the principal prospect acquired by the White Sox in the Javier Vazquez trade. A mountain of a man at 6-4, 245 pounds, Flowers has a discerning eye at the plate. A 33rd-round draft-and-follow selection in the 2005 draft, Flowers has a career .400 OBP and he drew walks at a Bondsian 19.2% clip in 2008. The Chipola Junior College product complements that judicious approach with plenty of raw power (.206 ISO). While Flowers whiffs a bit more than one would like (24.7 K%), there’s little reason to doubt his offensive profile. The reviews of his work behind the dish are a bit more sketchy, however.

Flowers would be one of the largest catchers ever- using Baseball Reference’s Play Index Tool, I found that that Pete Varney (himself a White Sox backstop) and Ronny Paulino are the only players at least 6-3 and 235 pounds (an inch and 10 pounds lighter than Flowers) to have seasons in which they played at least 50% of their games at catcher. That’s not to say Flowers couldn’t (Wieters is similarly huge, though he comes with a better defensive rep), but there’s not much precedent for it. If Flowers can continue to don the tools if ignorance, he would be an immensely valuable player for the Pale Hose. If not, his bat will still certainly play at first base or DH. He just wouldn’t be quite as interesting.

3. Nicholas Weglarz, Indians: .377 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position OF (1B also possible)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Kinston): R (0.99), H (0.97), 2B (0.95), HR (1.08)

This big Canadian southpaw showcased a very mature approach at the plate for a guy who played the entire season at age 20. Drawing free passes at a 15.9% clip, Weglarz posted a .396 OBP. While the 3rd-round selection in the 2005 draft has yet to really tap into his power game (his career SLG% is .448), his 6-3, 215 pound frame portends to more pop, and Baseball America notes that Weglarz “generates excellent loft, bat speed and leverage with his swing and shows plus-plus power potential.” Weglarz is no great shakes in the outfield, and might eventually have to shift to first base, but his bat should play there (Cleveland could have quite the log jam at the position, with Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta and Wes Hodges all possible first base candidates as well). The Ontario native also made some major strides in making more contact: after striking out nearly 30% of the time in 2007, he pared that figure down to 20.8% in 2008.

4. Brandon Allen, White Sox: .402 wOBA
Age: 23 in January
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Winston Salem): R (1.05), H (1.03), 2B (1.06), HR (1.06)

We fall down the defensive spectrum pretty quickly in the Carolina League, shifting from two catchers to a defensively-challenged outfielder, and now a first baseman. Allen’s career had been a mixed big prior to 2008, as the lefty-hitting Texas native showcased power but little plate discipline. That began to change this season: the 6-2, 235 pounder still pummeled the ball (.248 ISO), but he coupled that force with more restraint, as his walk rate rose to 11.4%. Allen continued to impress upon a promotion to AA, posting a .425 wOBA. He has some contact issues (26 K%) and he’ll have to continue to mash to be of high value, but Allen looks like the heir apparent to Paul Konerko in Chicago.

5. Beau Mills, Indians: .388 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Kinston): R (0.99), H (0.97), 2B (0.95), HR (1.08)

Son of Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills, Beau was selected 13th overall in the 2007 draft out of Lewis Clark State. He began his collegiate career at Fresno State, but transferred after having a falling out with the school. Mills had a mild debut in 2007, but he pieced together a pretty solid campaign at Kinston in 2008, batting .293/.373/.506. He began his career as a third baseman, but his below-average range and lateral agility necessitated a move across the diamond to first base.

As you may have seen, David Appelman added yet another interesting feature to this site earlier this week: wOBA for minor league hitters. As you probably know by now, wOBA is a linear weight formula that gives a specific run value to each offensive event, and is scaled to look like on-base percentage. If you know what a good OBP looks like, you know what a good wOBA looks like. With wOBA now available for minor leaguers, we can get a better idea of who had the most impressive offensive campaigns in each league.

Of course, we have to consider context. It would be a fruitless endeavor to simply list the top wOBA performers from each league without considering a number of important factors. Was the player at an age-appropriate level? What is the offensive environment of his home ballpark like? How about the league- does it favor hitting or pitching? For instance, erstwhile Cubs prospect Brian Dopirak (now Blue Jays property) paced the High-A Florida State League in wOBA. However, he did so as a 24 year-old first baseman in one of the few hitter-friendly venues in the FSL. Is that an impressive performance, or simply an older player taking advantage of pitchers several years his junior? With minor league numbers, context is everything.

Using our new minor league wOBA tool and considering the questions listed above, I am going to attempt to single out the very best minor league performers at the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels, ranking the top 5 batting prospects in each league. To weed out the true prospects from the fool’s gold, I’m going to consider not only wOBA, but age as well as park and league offensive levels. We want to know not just who performed the best, but whose performance portends to future success at the major league level. Let’s kick things off with the High-A Florida State league.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

Florida State League

2008 league offensive levels: Singles (1.01), Doubles (0.89), Triples (1.00), Home Runs (0.96)

1. Logan Morrison, Marlins: .406 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Jupiter): Runs (0.96), Hits (0.98), Doubles (0.98), HR (0.83)

Playing the 2008 season at the age of 20 (he turned 21 in late August), Morrison put up some highly impressive numbers. Showing a steady eye at the plate (10.5 BB%) and a moderate K rate (16.4%), Morrison posted an OBP in excess of .400. A product of the now defunct draft-and follow system in 2005, the lefty didn’t appear to put a huge charge into the ball at first glance (.162 ISO), but Jupiter has done quite a number on home runs over the past three seasons.

2. Wilson Ramos,Twins: .356 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Fort Myers): R (0.96), H (0.98), 2B (0.95), HR (0.91)

Ramos’ wOBA might not be as high as some of the other players you’ll see on the list, but he earns additional credit for two reasons. One, like Morrison, Ramos played basically the entire ’08 season as a 20 year-old. Two, he plays a premium position, and plays it well by most accounts. According to Baseball America, Ramos threw out 43 percent of would-be base stealers in the FSL. The Venezuelan’s .288/.346/.434 line and adequate control of the strike zone (7.6 BB%, 22.8 K%) might not stand out at first glance, but he seems very likely to stick behind the dish while providing above-average offensive relative to his position. That Mauer guy precludes Ramos getting a shot in Minnesota, but don’t be surprised to hear Ramos’ name come up in trade talks.

3. Todd Frazier, Reds: .368 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: Infielder (likely 3B or LF down the line)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sarasota): R (1.00), H (1.00), 2B (1.06), HR (0.93)

This Rutgers product is a man without a position- at 6-3, 215 pounds and “lacking first step quickness” according to BA, Frazier has next to no shot to remain at shortstop. While his glovework is somewhat lacking, Frazier turned in a solid .281/.357/.451 line at Sarasota. Perhaps the 2007 supplemental 1st-round pick will shift incumbent third baseman Edwin Encarnacion to the outfield- Encarnacion’s career UZR/150 at the hot corner is a gruesome -11.5.

4. Juan Francisco, Reds: .353 wOBA
Age: 21
Position: 3B (with a shift to 1B possible)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sarasota): R (1.00), H (1.00), 2B (1.06), HR (0.93)

The lefty-swinging Francisco has a ton of power in his ample 6-2 frame, as evidenced by his lofty .219 ISO. However, the Dominican Republic native has yet to get a grasp on the strike zone, to say the least: Francisco walked just 3.6% of the time, while striking out in 23.8% of his at-bats. Francisco’s youth and pop make him intriguing, but he’s going to have to do serious work in improving his plate discipline to be ready for the big leagues.

T-5. Taylor Green, Brewers: .376 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Brevard County): R (0.98), H (1.00), 2B (0.96), HR (0.98)

Green could have been Indians property as the player-to-be-named in the CC Sabathia trade, but the tribe selected outfielder Michael Brantley instead. Might Cleveland regret that selection? A lefty-swinging draft-and-follow pick from the 2005 draft, Green has fine strike zone discipline (12.7 BB%) and puts the bat on the ball often (14.1 K%), but questions remain about his ability to stick at third base and his power production. Brantley also shows tremendous control of the zone, as well as the drawbacks of limited leather and little pop. If everything breaks right for Green, perhaps he’s the next Bill Mueller.

T-5. Bradley Emaus, Blue Jays: .387 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: 2B/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Dundein): R (1.04), H (1.03), 2B (1.06), HR (1.10)

An 11th-round selection out of Tulane in the 2007 draft, Emaus displayed an interesting blend of power (.161 ISO), patience (11.3 BB%) and contact ability (11.8 K%) at Dundein. After failing to crack BA’s top 30 Blue Jays prospects before the 2008 season, Emaus improved his standing enough to rank 10th in the organization this offseason. His stocky build (5-11, 200) and lack of a definite position (he shifted from the hot corner to the keystone in ’08) bring to mind a Ty Wigginton-type player.

Check back in tomorrow to see the best that the Carolina League has to offer.

When Jason Giambi took his on-base skills and gargantuan power from the Bay to the Bronx after the 2001 season, he was the recipient of a mammoth seven-year, $120 million contract. But let’s be honest: it was strange to see this long-locked, tattooed fellow transform into a clean-cut, cordial Yankee.

While the mustachioed one managed to rage against the machine as much as grooming requirements allowed, his time with the Yankees was something of a mixed bag. Giambi posted a wOBA in excess of .400 in four of his seven seasons with the Yankees, but as the back loaded portion of his pact kicked in, his value to the club did not match up to the bloated salary commitment. Despite compiling a combined .383 wOBA over the 2006-2008 seasons, Giambi made $67.2 million while providing the Bombers with approximately $26.5 million in performance value.

Giambi made a whopping $23.4 million in 2008, but he’ll make less than a fifth of that sum after coming to terms with the A’s on a one-year, $4.5 million deal with a $5M option for the 2010 season. While Giambi’s salary had become cumbersome in recent years, he looks like an outright bargain at that price. The soon-to-be 38 year-old may no longer be the same guy who slugged near .650 over his last two seasons with Oakland in 2000 and 2001, but he can still provide some value to fantasy owners while invigorating a rapidly improving A’s lineup.

In 2008, Giambi rebounded from an injury-shortened 2007 campaign to post a .247/.373/.502 line, with a .377 wOBA in 565 PA. As always, the Giambino drew a boatload of walks (14.2 BB%) and still managed to put a pretty solid charge into the baseball (.255 ISO). That ISO figure tied Houston’s Lance Berkman for the 14th-best mark in the majors.

Interestingly, Giambi has actually become a little more of a free swinger as he has advanced in age. He’s still a very disciplined batsman, but Jason’s Outside-Swing% has climbed in each of the past four seasons, from an incredibly low 10.2% in 2005 to 19.2% in 2008, and he has increased his percentage of strikes swung at from 60.8% in ’05 to 63.2% in ’08. The increased number of swings seem to have had a slight negative effect on his walk rate. Still, when you’re “only” drawing a free pass 14-15% of the time, you’re doing quite well. Giambi tied former-Athletic-now-Yankee Nick Swisher for the 14th-best walk rate in the big leagues.

Granted, Giambi will be leaving a wonderful environment for left-handed power hitters (per the Bill James Handbook, Yankee Stadium has a 3-year HR park factor of 120 for lefties) for less-inviting terrain: McAfee Coliseum’s HR park factor for southpaw batters over the past three years is exactly neutral, at 100. However, even accounting for the lefty-friendly dimensions of his home ballpark, Giambi’s offensive performance in 2008 was 21.5 runs above that of an average hitter. That ranked him just outside the top 10 among first baseman.

Giambi’s signing also has the likely consequence of sending one of the least productive first baseman in ’08, Daric Barton, back to the minors (Barton was -7.2 runs compared to an average batter). Though many question his power ceiling, there’s still reason to hope for better things from the 23 year-old down the line. A career .299/.411/.455 hitter in the minors, Barton is young enough to put his ugly start behind him and emerge as a solid cog for the A’s down the road. Still, the Athletics may be closer to contention than many realize, and the difference between Daric’s 2008 showing (0.4 WAR) and Giambi’s (2.6 WAR) was substantial.

Jason Giambi may no longer be the unstoppable force that annihilated American League pitching earlier in the decade, but he still possesses a patient and potent stick that should be of use to both the A’s and fantasy squads. In both real baseball and fantasy, position scarcity matters; it’s far easier to find a suitable player at a position like first base than it is to find, say, a good shortstop. Once the top-tier first baseman are gone, your best bet is to wait on a guy like Giambi.

After a week of inactivity, the free agent dominoes appear to be falling. On the heels of the Tampa Bay Rays inking Pat Burrell to a team-friendly deal, Milton Bradley has come to terms with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $30 million pact. The erstwhile Expo, Indian, Dodger, Athletic, Padre and Ranger will now patrol right field for the Cubbies.

Turning 31 in April, Bradley is coming off of a monstrous offensive campaign in 2008. In 510 PA, the switch-hitter pummeled opposing pitchers to the tune of a .321/.436/.563 line, with a .423 wOBA that ranked fourth among all hitters. Only Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones and Manny Ramirez provided more offensive value to their respective ballclubs. Despite the significant penalty incurred by designated hitters from position adjustments (-17.5 runs per 162 games), Bradley was worth 3.7 wins last season. That level of performance was worth nearly $17 million to the Rangers.

While Milton is a truly outstanding hitter who draws walks by the bushel and hits for power, we should expect some degree of regression from his lethal ’08 season- his .396 BABIP is not sustainable. Marcel projects Bradley to post a .384 wOBA in 479 PA in 2009. If Bradley were to meet that reasonable forecast, he would be worth a little more than 20 runs above average with the stick.

Of course, the equation is not that simple. With Bradley shifting back to the NL, he must now dust off his glove and play a position on a daily basis. Bradley has endured more than his fair share of injuries over the years, and manning the outfield only figures to exacerbate his lack of durability. Over the 2006 and 2007 seasons, he hit the DL for a sprained right knee, a strained left shoulder, a strained left hamstring (twice), a right calf strain and a strained oblique muscle. That doesn’t include the bizarre torn ACL that Bradley suffered disputing a call, either. He has topped the 500 PA mark just twice in his career: as a DH with the Rangers last season and with the Dodgers back in 2004.

Given Bradley’s extensive history of injury and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to play the outfield without triggering health problems, just what sort of deal did the North Siders get? Will Bradley’s powerful bat prove to be a bargain, or will Chicago develop buyer’s remorse?

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that Bradley averages about 400 PA and 100 games per season. Those are admittedly arbitrary numbers that could be argued, but it’s an attempt to account for the likelihood that Bradley will be unavailable for a decent chunk of time. If Bradley meets his Marcel projection of a .384 wOBA, he’d be worth about 17 runs above average offensively in 400 PA.

Calculating Milton’s defensive value is much less straightforward. He has been an above-average defender in the past, and has performed well in limited opportunities over the past two seasons. Let’s call Bradley a +5 run fielder. Pro-rating the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games for corner outfielders) and replacement level (+20 runs per 600 PA), Bradley projects to be worth about 31 runs above replacement, or 3.1 WAR.

It has become increasingly obvious that this is very much a buyer’s market for clubs, so let’s keep last year’s $4.5 million per WAR figure. Using that, Bradley projects to be worth about $14 million on a one-year deal. Even accounting for the likelihood that Bradley hits the shelf with an ailment or two, he projects to be worth considerably more than his salary for the 2009 season.

Accounting for a 10% discount rate for a longer deal (risk-averse players tend to sacrifice a little coin to risk-neutral clubs in long-term pacts), a fair three-year deal for Bradley would come out to about $37.8 million. If Milton can stay on the field a little less than two-thirds of the time with the Cubs, his performance should outpace his salary.

A three-year deal for a player with a DL record similar in length to “War and Peace” is risky. But, the Cubs appear to have accounted for the probability of Bradley missing significant time, and seemingly got his premium bat at something of a discount. There’s no reason to expect Bradley to play anything resembling a full season’s worth of games, but he’ll be productive enough when he’s in the lineup to satisfy both the Cubs and fantasy owners. Luckily, fantasy folk don’t have to make a multi-year commitment. Expect Milton to mash when he’s in the lineup-just have a decent backup plan in place for his inevitable DL stint.

Several years back, Daniel Cabrera was one of the more intriguing young arms in the American League East. A hulking 6-9, 270 pound righty who missed plenty of bats (and often the strike zone) while generating some grounders, Cabrera appeared to be Baltimore’s best hope at cultivating a home-grown starter to front the club’s rotation. If you squinted really hard, you might have even seen a Carlos Zambrano starter kit on the mound for the O’s.

After a wobbly introduction to the big leagues in 2004 (0.85 K/BB ratio, 5.10 FIP in 147 IP) in which his upper-90’s heater often missed the mark, Cabrera turned in an impressive campaign as a 24 year-old during the 2005 season. The Dominican Republic native punched out 8.76 batters per nine innings and kept his infielders busy with a 52.7 GB%. His walk rate remained tenuous at 4.85 per nine innings, but the overall result of those whiffs and grounders was a tidy 4.02 FIP. With 96 MPH cheese, Cabrera figured to establish himself as Baltimore’s ace if he could pare those free passes down to a more reasonable level.

Instead of building off of that promising season, however, Cabrera seemed to take a step backward in 2006. His K rate climbed all the way to 9.55 per nine innings (3rd among all starters tossing at least 140 frames), but his already-high propensity to issue ball four rose to an untenable level: 6.32 BB/9. After posting an above-average groundball rate in ’05, Cabrera found his pitches being lifted more frequently, with just a 40.7 GB%.

His FIP was still a decent-looking 4.20, but that figure was held down by a low home run/flyball rate: after surrendering a homer on 10.4% of his flyballs in ’05, Cabrera lucked into a 7.6 HR/FB% in 2006. If we adjust for that HR/FB rate by using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we find that Cabrera’s XFIP rose from 4.20 in ’05 to 4.83 in ’06.

In 2007, Cabrera essentially made a trade-off, swapping some strikeouts for (relatively) improved control. His K rate fell to 7.31 per nine, with his walk rate falling from cartoonishly bad to just mediocre (4.76 BB/9). The result was a nearly unchanged strikeout-to-walk ratio, as Cabrera posted a 1.54 K/BB that mirrored his 1.51 showing in 2006. His groundball rate recovered (49.5%), but Cabrera didn’t experience the same good fortune with the longball, surrendering 1.1 HR/9. His FIP rose to 5.01, with his XFIP ticking up slightly to 4.89.

If the 2007 season was a disappointing showing from a stagnating pitcher, then 2008 was an unmitigated disaster for the 27 year-old Cabrera. Once a high-octane, high strikeout hurler who walked more than his fair share of batters, Cabrera lost the velocity and strikeout portions of that equation while still showing little ability to paint the corners. In 180 innings, the big righty saw his K rate plummet to 4.75 per nine innings, while his walk rate remained a ho-hum 4.5 per nine.

Once capable of reaching the upper-90’s with his fastball on a consistent basis, Cabrera averaged a more tame 92.6 MPH in ’08, down nearly 4 MPH since his solid 2005 campaign. Cabrera has actually become more reliant on his heater despite its loss of zip: after throwing his fastball about three-quarters of the time in 2006 and 2007 (an already lofty rate), he used his diminished heat 82.5% of the time in ’08. No other starter in the majors relied on his fastball as much as Cabrera.

With waning stuff that led to a nasty 5.61 FIP and 5.41 XFIP, Cabrera was pretty easy to make contact with this past season. He hit the DL in September with a sprained elbow, after barely cracking 90 MPH with his fastball during two ineffective late-season starts. Courtesy of Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X tool, let’s take a look at the difference in Cabrera’s arsenal between 2007 and 2008:

2007

Fastball: -5.16 X, 10.06 Z, 4.2 Swinging Strike%
Slider: 6.16 X, -0.9 Z, 18.5 Swinging Strike %

2008

Fastball: -8.49 X, 8.02 Z, 3.2 Swinging Strike%
Slider: 0.68 X, 1.13 Z, 13.5 Swinging Strike%

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Cabrera’s fastball was never a big swing-and-miss pitch to begin with (the average Swinging Strike% for a fastball is about six percent), but batters whiffed at the pitch even less in ’08, as the offering tailed in on the hands of right-handed batters more but featured less vertical break. Cabrera’s slider, a pretty lively pitch in ’07, didn’t have near as much jump this past season and saw a five percent dip in swinging strikes. Perhaps in an effort to preserve his elbow, Cabrera mixed in his slider just 15.3% of the time in ’08, down from 23% the previous year.

Basically a one-pitch starter with an occasional hanging slider, Cabrera saw his Contact% rise considerably. He was once pretty difficult to put the bat on the ball against, but hitters made contact with 87.6% of pitches thrown by Cabrera this past year, up from 81.9% the previous season. Those figures are a far cry from the mid 70’s contact percentages that Cabrera compiled in 2005 and 2006.

That high-80’s contact figure placed Cabrera among groundball machine Aaron Cook, as well as recently retired control artists Mike Mussina and Greg Maddux. Suffice it to say, Cabrera does not fit in among this group. And, not only are opponents putting the ball in play often against him, but they just plain don’t chase his offerings out of the strike zone. Cabrera’s 18.9 O-Swing% in ’08 was by far the lowest rate among all starters.

Despite receiving a major-league worst 5.38 FIP from the club’s starting pitchers and resorting to allowing Steve Trachsel to make eight starts, the Orioles cut ties with Cabrera this off-season by non-tendering him. Scooped up by the pitching-starved Washington Nationals, Cabrera will team with the equally enigmatic Scott Olsen in hopes of reviving the promise of years past.

It was pretty easy to be optimistic about Daniel Cabrera’s future following his 2005 showing. However, he stagnated for two seasons after that, before doing a Wile E. Coyote style cliff dive in 2008. Perhaps an offseason of rest will heal his elbow and restore his stuff, but it’s best to just pass on Cabrera at this point- 2005 seems like an awfully long time ago for this hurler.

With the versatile Mark DeRosa headed to Cleveland for a trio of minor league arms (Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub), there may be competition for the second base position in the Windy City. The Cubs brought in a “Proven Veteran” to hold down the job (more on him later), but the club’s best bet to replace DeRosa at the keystone was already on the roster: Mike Fontenot.

Originally a 21st-round pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 1999 amateur draft, Fontenot decided to attend Louisiana State University instead of signing with Tampa. Teaming with Ryan Theriot, the lefty-swinging Fontenot enjoyed a successful collegiate career which improved his draft stock dramatically. After leading the Tigers to the 2000 College World Series, Fontenot was plucked by the Baltimore Orioles with the 19th overall selection in the 2001 draft. He endured a lukewarm first season in 2002 (.264/.333/.364 in 481 AB at High-A Frederick), but turned in a solid campaign at AA Bowie in 2003 (.325/.399/.481 in 449 AB).

Following a so-so season at AAA Ottawa in 2004 (.279/.346/.420 in 524 AB), Fontenot was shipped to the North Siders, along with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Dave Crouthers, in exchange for Sammy Sosa. Unfortunately for the Orioles, Sosa’s goose was cooked (he would turn in a sub-replacement level performance in his only season in Baltimore). Fontenot, meanwhile, bided his time in AAA during the ’05 and ’06 seasons before finally getting some major league playing time over the past two years.

In about a full-season’s worth of plate appearances, the diminutive second baseman has posted a .290/.369/.457 line, with a 10.8 BB% and a 19.6% whiff rate. Despite receiving just 284 PA last season, Fontenot was about 16 runs above average with the bat, posting a .395 wOBA.

When evaluating Fontenot, it is important to keep in mind that we have a relatively small sample size in terms of projecting his future performance. As such, Marcel isn’t as useful for a player like this (as evidenced by his 0.67 REL score; there’s just not a whole lot of data to go on). For what it’s worth, Marcel projects Fontenot to post a .355 wOBA in 2009. Let’s be pessimistic and pare that figure down to .345. If the 5-8, 170 pounder were to get regular playing time (let’s say, 600 PA), he would be about 5.2 runs above average with the bat.

Compare that to the fellow whom the Cubs just inked to a questionable two-year, $4.9 million deal: Aaron Miles. The 32 year-old posted a decent .331 wOBA in 2008, but that performance was fueled by a .343 BABIP figure: Miles was more or less than same slappy hitter who rarely walks (career 5.6 BB%) and does not drive the ball (.076 ISO). Marcel projects Miles to post a .308 wOBA in ’09. Over 600 PA, that comes out to about -14.1 runs compared to an average hitter. Clearly, Fontenot is the superior batsman.

It stands to reason, then, that Chicago feels as though Miles’ defensive work makes up the difference. However, it’s pretty difficult to find justification on that front either. Caveat emptor again on the sample size, but Fontenot has posted a 12.4 UZR/150 at second base thus far. Let’s again be pessimistic and halve that number, making Fontenot a +6.2 defender per 150 games. That figure is still well ahead of Miles, who has a career -3.5 UZR/150 at second. Even if we take his marks over the past three years (admittedly better than his career work) and weigh them accordingly, Miles comes out as a +1 run defender. So, Let’s tally up the scores of our second base contestants…

Fontenot
+ 5.2 hitting
+6.2 fielding
+ 2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level

= 33.9 Runs Above Replacement, 3.4 WAR

Miles
-14.1 hitting
+1 fielding
+2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level

= 9.4 Runs Above Replacement, 0.94 WAR

Using these projections, Fontenot bests Miles by nearly two and a half wins. Even if you think that Fontenot’s numbers are still too optimistic and Miles’ too low, it’s exceedingly difficult to close that wide of a gap. Fontenot is without question the better hitter, and it seems likely that his glove will help out the pitching staff more than Miles’ would to boot.

Fantasy owners will want to watch Chicago’s second base situation closely. If the Cubs make the right choice, Mike Fontenot could be a fairly valuable commodity as an up-the-middle player with decent on-base skills and a little more sock than one might think. In a battle between “scrappy” middle infielders, this one really isn’t that close.

Despite his last name, there was nothing at all poetic about Josh Bard’s 2008 campaign. If anything, his season read like a Shakespearean tragedy. Coming off of a solid showing in 2007 that included a .285/.364/.404 line in cavernous Petco Park, Bard must have felt more blindsided than Polonius upon seeing his line crash down to a paltry .202/.279/.270 in 2008. Coming off of a season marred by poor performance and three trips to the disabled list for groin, ankle and triceps injuries, the switch-hitter was forced to take a non-guaranteed one-year deal from the Red Sox. Bard’s pact will apparently pay $1.7 million if he makes the club, with $800K in possible incentives.

A member of Boston’s squad in 2006, Bard was shipped off to San Diego along with worm-killer Cla Meredith in exchange for flutterball specialist Doug Mirabelli. Now back in the fold (and presumably keeping an arms-length away from Tim Wakefield), Bard may have the opportunity to compete for a starting job. Can he rebound, or will he just end up as the next job for the gravediggers?

In most every category, Bard’s 2008 numbers mirrored his work from previous seasons. The Texas Tech product walked 9.2% of the time and struck out fourteen percent, showing control of the strike zone that was very similar to his career averages (9.4 BB%, 15.4 K%). His line-drive rate was also a healthy 21.6%, suggesting that he was still squaring the ball up pretty often. Bard didn’t put the ball on the ground any more than he typically does either, with a 47.1 GB% (49.5% career). He didn’t show much of any power while dealing with a multitude of ailments, but the only major difference in Bard’s stat line was a laughably low .230 BABIP. Given his line drive rate, that figure will likely jump a considerable amount in 2009.

Marcel projects Bard to hit .266/.342/.395 with a wOBA of .325 in 2009. Let’s stick with that projection for the time being, roughly estimating that the shift back to the AL is offset by his moving from the run-suppressing environs of Petco to a more favorable ballpark in Fenway. Marcel has Bard taking 343 PA in ’09- let’s up that figure a bit to reflect more frequent playing time. I’ll give him a theoretical 450 PA.

In 450 PA, Bard projects to be worth -3.91 runs compared to an average hitter (.335 wOBA). He comes with a relatively poor defensive reputation, so let’s dock him -5 runs for his glove work. The positional adjustment for catchers is +12.5 runs per 150 games and the replacement level adjustment is +20 runs per 700 PA. Pro-rating both of those figures, Bard gets about an 8.5 run positional adjustment and 12.9 run replacement level adjustment.

Add all of those elements up (-3.91 offense + -5 defense +8.5 position + 12.9 replacement level), and you get about 12.5 runs above replacement, or 1.25 WAR. That level of production is worth about $6 million on the open market, using a $4.8 million/1 WAR scale. For comparison, Jason Varitek posted a nearly identical 1.3 WAR in 2008.

Josh Bard should not be your plan A on draft day, but he could be a nice value if he snags the starting job in Boston. It’s pretty easy to get stuck with an Ausmusian cipher behind the plate in deeper leagues-Bard isn’t going to light it up in any category, but he’s unlikely to be a liability, either. He won’t give you a whole lot of pop, but his solid on-base skills and control of the strike zone suggest that this Bard could get poetic justice with the Red Sox in 2009.

Entering the 2008 season, right-hander Brad Penny likely had free agent riches in his sights. The 30 year-old had posted a sub-four Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) for five straight seasons, including a 2007 campaign in which he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2001. With another strong showing Penny figured to snag a pretty penny, securing a long-term pact paying an annual salary in the eight-figure range.

Those hopes of a lavish multi-year deal never materialized, however, as Penny dealt with a shoulder injury that placed him on the 15-day DL three separate times: “mild tendinitis” in June, “shoulder inflammation” in August, and “shoulder soreness” in August.

In between that trio of trips to the DL, a less-than optimal Penny turned in his worst season as a professional. Tossing just 94.2 frames, the 2006 NL All-Star starter punched out less than five batters per nine innings while walking about four per nine. Combined with an elevated home run rate (1.24 per nine), Penny posted a 5.27 FIP. Penny’s fastball velocity was down a tick from 2007 (from 93.4 MPH to 92.4 MPH), and the speed of his heater jumped around quite a bit during the summer months as he tried to pitch through his shoulder ailment:

June: 94.1 MPH
(DL stint)
August: 89.6 MPH
(DL stint)
September: 92.8 MPH
(DL stint)

Take a look at these clips from the Baseball-Intellect website. One shows Penny unleashing a 97 MPH fastball in a May 13th start versus Milwaukee, while the other shows Brad more or less lobbing a 90 MPH pitch August 8th against San Francisco. Cleary, Penny’s shoulder was bothering him a great deal. It’s difficult to argue with R.J. Anderson, who suggests that it would have been in the best interests of both the free-agent-to-be and the Dodgers for Penny to have shut it down far earlier than he did.

Penny was forced to take a one-year deal following his injury-wracked season, inking a one-year, $5 million contract with the Red Sox that includes an additional $3 million in possible incentives. Let’s assume for the time being that Penny reports to spring training in good health. The 6-4, 260 pounder has never posted ace-like peripherals, but his league-average K rate (6.36 K/9), decent control (2.93 BB/9) and mild groundball tendencies (48.7 GB% in ’07, 49.1% in ’08) have allowed him to post a very useful 3.95 career FIP.

Marcel projects a 4.11 FIP out of Penny in 127 innings, meaning that Brad would surrender about 58 runs. A replacement-level starter (with a 5.50 FIP) would give up about 77.6 runs in the same number of innings. Penny’s 19.6 runs above replacement (1.96 WAR) would make him worth about $9.4 million, using a scale of $4.8 million per WAR. In other words, Brad would be well worth his salary, even if he didn’t hit the 160-inning threshold that kickstarts his incentive money. Bringing in a solid starter like Penny on a one-year deal was a shrewd move by an organization that makes plenty of intelligent decisions. If Penny makes a full season’s worth of starts, he’ll be an outright steal.

If Penny’s shoulder heals, he could be a nice bargain on draft day. Some owners might have a sour taste in their mouths from his 2008 work, but the big righty is certainly worth tracking during the offseason. If the medical reports sound promising, give some thought to picking up a Penny for your fantasy squad.