For the better part of the past decade, the Oakland Athletics’ rotation has been a revolving door of talented arms. From “The Big Three” to the more recently imploded Harden, Haren and Blanton-led outfit, change has been about the only constant in Oakland’s starting five.

When the A’s decided that Rich Harden’s excellent-but-transient contributions had worn out their welcome, the club shipped him to the Cubs for a package of prospects including right-hander Sean Gallagher. The 23 year-old might not be a household name, but he’s someone you’ll want to keep in mind as Oakland looks to build another excellent cost-controlled rotation.

Originally selected in the 12th round of the 2004 draft, Gallagher used his eclectic mix of pitches (fastball, curve, slider and change) to post a 2.77 ERA in 480.2 career minor league frames. The 6-2, 235 pounder punched out over a batter per inning (9.03 K/9) while showing adequate control (3.5 BB/9). Gallagher was given his first extended big-league trial last season (21 starts between to Cubs and the A’s, plus 2 relief appearances with Chicago) and while the results might look rather bleak on the surface (he posted a 5.15 ERA), the underlying results look more promising.

Gallagher’s FIP was a less scary 4.48. While he certainly issued more free passes than desired (4.53 BB/9), he did show the ability to miss bats by punching out 8.04 batters per nine innings. A high BABIP (.321) and a really low strand rate (66.5%) conspired to make Gallagher’s appear worse than it really was. The Boston native was not afraid to mix in all of his pitches, either. He used his 92 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, supplementing the heat with a healthy dose of 83 MPH sliders and 75 MPH curves (about 15% each). He also tossed the occasional 81 changeup (6% of the time).

While Gallagher racked up some grounders early on in his minor league career, he has become more of a flyball-oriented pitcher as he has climbed the ladder to the majors. In 130 career frames in the big leagues, Gallagher has posted a 36 GB%. A continued propensity to put the ball in the air would be a problem in some parks, but Gallagher’s new digs would suit such a style: McAfee Coliseum has suppressed HR production by 13% over the past three seasons, and overall run production by 11 percent.

Sean Gallagher might not be in the upper echelon of young pitchers, but there’s a lot to like here. The control will have to improve if he is going to take a step forward, but Gallagher has a diverse repertoire, the ability to fool batters and resides in a ballpark that really does a number on batting lines. Get Gallagher in the later rounds of your draft- this erstwhile Cub might just be part of Oakland’s next wave of great young pitching talent.

This winter, the Chicago Cubs have strung together a series of puzzling transactions. From shipping versatile infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three lukewarm pitching prospects (Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, Christopher Archer), acquiring Kevin Gregg from Florida for six years of team control over Jose Ceda, not offering arbitration to type-A free agent Kerry Wood (the “worst case scenario” there involves Wood accepting, giving the club a good, injury-prone reliever under control for just one year) and essentially swapping option-less former prospects Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for Aaron Heilman, GM Jim Hendry has sent out quite the load of talent without receiving comparable value in return. Signing Milton Bradley is a risky-but-defensible move and swapping Jason Marquis for Luis Vizcaino is unlikely to create ripples, but on the whole, it has been a winter of trading down in the Windy City.

The “out of options” fire sale continued yesterday, as the pitching-starved Orioles snagged left-hander Rich Hill from the Cubs for a player to be named. The move is all upside from Baltimore’s vantage point: they acquire a guy who was pretty useful as recently as 2007, and if Hill busts, they won’t give up much of anything: the quality of the PTBNL is contingent on Hill’s performance for the O’s.

Hill, 29 in March, certainly has a better chance of cracking Baltimore’s rotation than he did in Chicago, where his turbulent 2008 made him a forgotten man within the organization. While the O’s have an impressive collection of well-regarded arms on the farm (Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and to a lesser extent guys like Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Troy Patton, Bradley Bergesen and Chorye Spoone), the current rotation depth chart reads like a collection of waiver-wire talent.

Jeremy Guthrie’s peripherals suggest he’s more league-average starter than rotational pillar (his FIP has hovered around 4.50 the past two years, with a .270-ish BABIP and a high strand rate making things appear sturdier). Control-oriented import Koji Uehara “should be roughly around average, and more likely on the low side than the high”, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Clay Davenport (subscription required). Beyond that? The O’s are left hoping that Radhames Liz and/or Matt Albers have good enough control or a deep enough repertoire to be sufficient starters. And there’s Mark Hendrickson, who’s tall. So, there’s that.

I do not claim to have any special insight into Rich Hill’s health, mechanics or mental state, and the results in ’08 were grim. In 67 combined innings tossed last year between the majors, AAA, High-A and Rookie Ball, Hill walked 62 batters. Small sample size and all, Hill’s 2008 plate discipline numbers tell the story: aware that Hill couldn’t locate, opposing batters swung at just 10.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is close to 25%), and hitters swung just 34.8% of the time overall. Why go up hacking against a guy who’s very likely to issue a free pass?

Things didn’t get any better during the offseason, as he walked a batter per inning for Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League. Is it possible that Hill has “Steve Blass Disease” and the strike zone will continue to elude him? Sure.

But, what I do know is that on the whole, Hill has shown a solid skill-set in the majors. In 337.2 career frames, the University of Michigan product has punched out 8.24 batters per nine innings while walking 3.65 per nine. An extreme flyball pitcher (career 34.3 GB%), Hill has been burned by the home run (1.28 surrendered per nine innings). Overall, the 6-5 southpaw has posted a 4.57 FIP, close to league-average. Hill’s flyballing ways likely won’t serve him well as he transitions into the insanely competitive AL East and a ballpark that inflates home run production (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123).

So, what does Hill have to do to reclaim his past success? Aside from the obvious (“uh, throw more strikes”), Hill could stand to diversify his repertoire. He has always relied upon a high-80’s fastball and a big, slow-breaking curveball, but Hill basically eschewed his changeup last season, and also did so during a rough and short stint with the Cubs in 2005.

While keeping in mind that we are dealing with pitch data from only 19.2 innings, Hill threw a changeup just 2.3% of the time in ’08 compared to 8.3% in 2007. With no confidence in his fastball and a reluctance to pull the string, Hill threw his trademark curve 35.4% of the time (27.3% in ’07). Recapturing his fastball control and command will surely be paramount, but it couldn’t hurt to be a little less predictable as well.

Hill is no sure thing, but he presents the same “low-risk, high reward” opportunity for fantasy owners as he does for the Orioles. After such a brutal season, Hill is unlikely to be on many radar screens. Keep an eye on his progress during spring training- 2008 was disastrous, but he posted a near 3/1 K/BB ratio as recently as ’07. If Hill regains his control, he could prove to be a shrewd acquisition for open-minded owners.

It’s a fair question to ask: which Washington entity has endured larger struggles since 2005- the executive and legislative branches of our government, or the Washington Nationals? While the former has implemented a pair of “bailout” packages to quell an economic maelstrom, the Nats very much remain a toxic asset.

Fresh off a sordid 102-loss campaign in which the club posted a run differential of -184, Washington’s big league ballclub could use all the help they can get. Luckily, if you squint really hard, you can see the beginnings of a turnaround.

Talented-but-volatile outfielder Elijah Dukes turned in an impressive season (a .382 wOBA with plus defense in right field). Center fielder Lastings Milledge and backstop Jesus Flores have oscillated between tantalizing and frustrating since arriving from the New York Mets via a trade and the Rule V Draft, respectively. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has sort of stagnated at the plate (wOBA’s from 2006-2008: .348, .340, .336), but the Virginia product is still just 24 years old and has been a big asset overall with an average of 3.9 Value Wins over the past three seasons. The offense was pretty lousy last season (with a .309 wOBA that ranked ahead of only the A’s), but one can at least dream upon Dukes and Zimmerman blossoming into all-around forces while simultaneously praying that Flores and Milledge can harness their control of the strike zone.

While there are some offensive pieces to the contending puzzle present, the rotation remains rather bleak. The Nats’ starting pitchers placed 28th in team FIP, faring better than only the lowly Rangers and Orioles. Presently, Washington’s rotation hopes lie in the hands of imports Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen, once-promising arms whose performances have tailed off dramatically. While expecting a rebound from either Cabrera or Olsen is a dubious proposition and incumbent “ace” John Lannan looks more like an adequate back-end starter than any sort of rotation headliner, Washington does have one potential ace up its sleeve.

Jordan Zimmermann, a 22 year-old right-hander, has quickly established himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization. A second-round pick in 2007 out of Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Zimmermann signed for $495,000 as the 67th player taken overall. As Baseball America noted at the time, a confluence of factors caused the four-pitch righty to hover under the radar somewhat:

“Scouts haven’t had an easy time following him this spring, however. Zimmermann broke his jaw in two places when he was struck by a batted ball while pitching live batting practice during an offseason workout. He missed three games and lost 10 pounds, and having wisdom teeth pulled during the season didn’t help him regain his strength. Bad early-season weather also made it difficult to keep him on a regular schedule.”

While that string of inauspicious events limited his scouting exposure, Zimmermann has enjoyed nothing but good luck since signing on the dotted line. Sent to the New York Penn League in the summer of ’07, the 6-2, 200 pounder immediately opened eyes in a 49-inning stint. The 2007 Division III College World Series MVP punched out 62 batters (11.39 K/9) and walked 16 (2.94 BB/9), posting a 2.18 FIP in the process.

One might expect a grizzled college pitcher to feast upon younger, less-experienced batters, but Zimmermann continued to eat up batsmen in 2008. Assigned to High-A Potomac to begin the year, Zimmermann quickly proved that his low-90’s heat, hard upper-80’s slider, mid-70’s hook and low-80’s changeup were no match for the Carolina League. In 27.1 frames, he compiled a 31/8 K/BB ratio and a 2.29 FIP. Bumped up to Double-A Harrisburg, Zimmermann continued to miss bats (8.69 K/9) and exhibited decent control (3.29 BB/9) in 106.2 innings (good for a 3.55 FIP). He kept the ball on the ground at both levels as well, with a 55 GB% at Potomac and a slightly above-average 48 GB% at Harrisburg.

There’s much to like about Zimmermann from both a statistical and scouting viewpoint. He has whiffed over a batter per inning during his rapid ascent through the minors, while exhibiting solid enough control and earning the adulation of the scouting community at the same time. Zimmermann ranked as Washington’s number one prospect following the ’08 season (per Baseball America) and checked in at #42 on Keith Law’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game. Said Law:

“Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well….He’s not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.”

Zimmermann might not be the classic fire-breathing pitching prospect who causes radar guns to melt, but his deep repertoire, strong peripherals and quick rise up the organizational ladder suggest that he could establish himself as Washington’s top arm in short order. Given the paucity of alternatives and the likelihood that the ballclub will spend another year in the NL East’s basement, the Nationals have every reason to give Zimmermann a look sometime during the 2009 season. Washington’s other Zimmerman(n) should stimulate a stagnant starting five and is well worth a look in fantasy leagues when he gets the call.

Left-hander Garrett Olson has endured quite the chaotic offseason. The 25 year-old with just 165 major league innings to his name has swapped teams twice within a two-week period. First shipped to Chicago along with minor league ‘pen arm Henry Williamson for Felix Pie, Olson now heads across the country to Seattle with shortstop Ronny Cedeno in exchange for reliever/hopeful roation member Aaron Heilman (also twice-traded this winter, having been Mariner property for less than two months).

Assuming Olson will remain with the M’s (thus allowing his head to stop spinning), the Cal Poly product will compete for the fifth-starter’s role in Seattle. The chances of him winning that spot outright in spring training appear slim- he faces competition for Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow and Ryan Feierabend – but Olson still might see his fair share of rotation work. All clubs end up calling upon those 6th, 7th and 8th starters, and with Erik Bedard’s health uncertain and Morrow facing a massive innings leap if he’s in the rotation from the get-go, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2005 supplemental first-rounder end up making a fair number of starts.

To this point in his major league career, Olson has struggled quite a bit. His ERA (6.87) overstates the extent of his issues (his FIP is a less-frightening 5.28), but the finesse southpaw has had difficulty finding the strike-zone on a consistent basis. While he exhibited solid control in the minors with 2.93 BB/9, Olson has issue nearly five free passes per nine innings in the big leagues. The 6-1, 200 pounder also displayed a penchant for missing bats down on the farm with a career K/9 mark of 8.91, but major league batters haven’t been fooled by his high-80’s heat or low 80’s slider and changeup (6.05 K/9).

As one might imagine, Olson’s mild fastball generates plenty of flyballs. His career GB% in the majors is 40.5%. Pitching in a venue that does not take kindly to such tendencies (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123, per the Bill James Handbook), Olson gave up plenty of tater’s with the O’s, surrendering 1.15 HR/9. If Olson had remained Baltimore property of had stayed put in Chicago (with an also-unfriendly 3 year HR park factor of 117), he would have been toiling in a stadium ill-suited to his pitching tendencies.

In Seattle, however, things look more promising. Safeco Field is one of the least threatening parks for hurlers, with a three-year run factor of 92 (suppressing offensive production by 8%). Those run-stifling tendencies extend to homers, as Safeco has diminished long-ball levels by 6% from 2006-2008 (94 park factor).

To boot, Olson will now pitch in front of what figures to be one of the absolute best defensive outfields in the game. Seattle’s new front office appears to have made defense a priority, having acquired gifted glove men Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez in a 12-player bonanza that shipped J.J. Putz to Queens (Ronny Cedeno might also fit the “defense-first” bill, depending on what metrics one looks at: he rates well at 2nd base put poorly at shortstop per UZR, but John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system liked his work during his extended big league trial in ’06, giving him a +5 mark). Residing in front of rangy fly-catchers in a pitcher’s park, Olson looks like a more viable fantasy option than he did with either the Orioles of the Cubs.

While acquiring players like Gutierrez, Chavez and Olson will never garner front-page headlines, Jack Zduriencik and company have done a fantastic job of matching team personnel to the tendencies of Seattle’s home ballpark. Olson is certainly no star. But, he might just turn out to be a decent rotation candidate now that he’s pitching in a favorable environment, flanked by three outfielders capable of covering the gaps.

We’re reaching the home stretch in our “Prospects in Proper Context” series, as we turn our attention to the AAA International League today. It’s often said that Triple-A is more of a holding cell for veterans and Quad-A-type players than a level that truly promising youngsters spend a good deal of time at, and this list bears that out. As such, I broke one of my own rules for this list: I lowered the minimum AB necessary to qualify for the list from 200 to 150, to squeeze in a sweet-swinging right fielder for the Reds. The point of these posts is to get a grasp on who has the most potential once age and offensive environment are taken into account. Leaving off Jay Bruce would just be silly. The first two players profiled have the necessary skills to become championship-caliber assets, but the rankings thin out from there.

Here are links to the other six parts of our prospects series:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League
Eastern League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 150 AB cut-off was used for the list.)

AAA International League offensive Levels: Singles (0.91), Doubles (1.02), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (0.99)

1. Jay Bruce, Reds: .437 wOBA (.364/.393/.630)
Age: 21 (22 in April)
Position: RF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Louisville): Runs (1.05), Hits (1.03), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (0.97)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .359/.388/.641
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .310/.333/.540

The amateur draft has justifiably been called a crapshoot. Despite the presence of highly talented and nuanced scouting departments that check and cross-check hundreds of players each year, there is a high degree of volatility in the process. Baseball’s draft just isn’t like those of its professional contemporaries, the NBA and the NFL; most players selected have plenty of development left and are years away from contributing at the highest level. Because of this, the amateur draft’s history is littered with high picks who just never refined their skills or ultimately had a flaw that kept them from reaching the lofty standards set by the player’s organization.

The outfield class from the 2005 draft, however, is shaping up to be an exception to the rule. Take a look at the absurd amount of fly-catching talent: first-round selections included Justin Upton (quickly moved off shortstop, Ryan Braun (sent to left field after a, ahem, bad year at third base), Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus and Travis Buck. Ellsbury looks more solid than spectacular and Buck has endured some injury problems, but Upton, Braun, Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce and Rasmus could all be described as organizational pillars. Teams could have played “pin-the-tail-on-the-outfield-prospect” and came away with a stud.

Bruce’s exploits have already been covered here in detail. Suffice it to say, a guy who posts a near-.200 ISO when he’s just barely old enough to drink deserves plenty of acclaim. I’ll leave you with this excerpt from the article:

“Bruce is obviously an extremely valuable long-term property. In keeper leagues, he should be near the top of your list. However, I would caution against going too hog-wild for him in 2009. He’s a very bright young player with star-caliber talent, but he also has some rough edges to smooth out in the plate discipline department. Select Bruce knowing that he has the ability to become a star, but also knowing that he might not quite reach that level this upcoming season.”

2. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: .347 wOBA (.283/.372/.398)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Indianapolis): R (0.99), H (1.01), 2B (1.00), HR (0.98)
PAL: .278/.367/.391
MLE: .238/.313/.325

As noted above, McCutchen was part of that ridiculous 2005 outfield crop. While the Fort Meade (FL) native might lack the punch of prospect contemporaries like Bruce, Maybin and Rasmus, McCutchen more than held his own as a 21 year-old in AAA. The 5-11, 175 pounder probably won’t hit for more than doubles power, though some (including ESPN’s Keith Law) feel that there might be more thump to come if he alters his swing:

“McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn’t get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn’t hit for the kind of power he’s capable of producing.”

Law also rightly points out that McCutchen has been pushed up the ladder pretty rapidly, skipping High-A ball entirely by jumping straight from the South Atlantic League to the Eastern League in 2006. McCutchen made excellent strides in working the count at Indianapolis this past year, raising his walk rate from about 8% in years past to 11.7%, while also cutting his K rate to 17%. An excellent athlete, McCutchen remains pretty raw on the base paths (he swiped 34 bags in ’08, but he was caught 19 times for a poor 64% success rate) but has shown plenty of range in the field.

His plus glove will likely move incumbent Nate McLouth out of center field sooner rather than later, a positive development despite McLouth’s odd Gold Glove selection. Both John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system (-40) and our UZR data (-15.1 UZR/150) suggest that Nate is stretched patrolling center. Moving McLouth to a corner and inserting McCutchen should aid a beleaguered Pittsburgh pitching staff.

For more on McCutchen, check out Peter Bendix’s article here.

3. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox: .350 wOBA (.268/.359/.434)
Age: 24 (25 in April)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Pawtucket): R (1.02), H (1.00), 2B (0.97), HR (1.18)
PAL: .263/.355/.419
MLE: .224/.299/.351

This switch-hitting Stanford product has made steady progress since the Red Sox selected him in the supplemental 1st round of the 2005 amateur draft. A career .281/.387/.446 minor league hitter, Lowrie has a discerning eye at the plate that helped him draw a walk 13.5% of the time at Pawtucket. Making his major league debut while filling in for an injured Julio Lugo, Lowrie performed admirably, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA. Jed does not possess a whole lot of power in his 6-0, 190 pound frame, but his combination of walks and doubles power could make him an asset to the Sox. To boot, Lowrie’s defensive scouting reports are reading better these days, and his initial work in Boston rated well.

There are some negatives, though: at 25, Lowrie probably does not have a whole lot of development left in him, meaning what you see is what you get, and his strikeout rates have elevated as he’s ascended through the farm system.

In 2009, Lowrie will battle the incumbent Lugo for the starting shortstop gig. Lugo hasn’t really hit much since signing a 4-year, $36M deal with the Sox before the 2007 season. The 33 year-old has posted wOBA’s of .293 and 317 in ’07 and ’08, respectively. CHONE projects Lugo to post a .319 wOBA in 2009, compared to .335 for Lowrie. One could make the argument that Lugo’s glove makes the difference, but Lugo has posted two campaigns in negative UZR/150 territory over the past three seasons. Lowrie appears to be the superior player at this point, though it’s not a runaway win.

For more on Lowrie, check out Brian Joura’s article here.

4. Matthew Joyce, Rays: .384 wOBA (.270/.352/.550)
Age: 24 (23 during ’08 season)
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Toledo): R (0.95), H (0.98), 2B (1.07), HR (0.90)
PAL: .275/.357/.565
MLE: .234/.304/.463

Before Joyce was shipped to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson in a rather questionable swap for the Tigers, he mashed for Toledo in the International League and more than held his own in Detroit. In the articled linked to above, Dave Cameron compares Joyce to a Jayson Werth-type player, and the comparison seems apt from this writer’s vantage point. Both are very rangy corner outfielders who absolutely mash opposite-handed pitching, while having some issues with same-side hurlers.

While Werth is a right-handed hitter demolishing southpaws, the lefty-swinging Joyce hammers righties. In his minor league career, the Florida Southern product has batted .294/.355/.475 versus right-handers, compared to .239/.328/.393 versus those pesky left-handers. In 2008, Joyce creamed International League righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610 and continued to treat them rudely in the majors (.255/.333/.509). Overall, the 12th-round selection in the ’05 draft posted a .355 wOBA in his first big league action, with an 11.4 BB%.

Joyce is certainly not a perfect player-he has issues with lefties and will swing and miss pretty frequently- but if properly utilized, he could be a large asset to both the Rays and fantasy owners alike. In his article examining Joyce, Peter Bendix summed it up perfectly:

“Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.”

5. Denard Span, Twins: .407 wOBA (.340/.434/.481)
Age: 24 (25 in February)
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Rochester): R (1.00), H (1.00), 2B (1.03), HR (1.00)
PAL: .346/.440/.487
MLE: .298/.379/.391

Entering the 2008 season, Span was fighting for his prospect life. The 2002 first-round pick had been a perennial disappointment, posting a lukewarm .282/.349/.347 career line through 2007. In 2008, it was almost as if Span emerged as a new player, doing his best Kenny Lofton impersonation along the way.

While Span’s AAA work was batting average-fueled, his time with the Twins was pretty impressive: in 411 PA, he drew a free pass 12.6% of the time and compiled a .387 OBP. I took a look at Span earlier this offseason, attempting to figure out whether or not his ’08 showing was just a flash in the pan or a harbinger of things to come. While I wouldn’t go quite so far as to expect a repeat performance, I think that Span has made some legitimate changes that portend to long-term success:

“Ordinarily, one might regard Span’s season as a blip, a flash in the pan. How often does a career disappointment suddenly start raking in the majors? However, there are some reasons to think that Span made some legitimate improvements in his game this past season. He drew walks at a 12.6% clip for the Twinkies while keeping his K rate in check (17.3%). His contact rate was a healthy 88.7%, and he almost never strayed from the strike zone, with an OSwing% of just 16.7%. That was the 10th-lowest figure among batters with at least 400 PA. Span’s stolen base prowess improved somewhat, at least to the point where he wasn’t harming his team (using the .22 run value for a SB and the -.38 value for a CS, Span’s 18/25 season came out to a net positive of 1.3 runs).”

“It’s not that uncommon for a player to experience a single-season hike in batting average or power, but it’s far more rare for a batter to show much-improved plate patience and then give all of those gains back the following year. Span’s increased walk rate and very low O-Swing% paint the picture of a hitter who refined his control of the strike zone and took a more mature approach with him to the batter’s box.”

If Span retains the patient approach that he brought with him to Minnesota, he could be a valuable commodity as a high-OBP player with some speed.

In many respects, the Detroit Tigers were a disappointing entity in 2008. Preseason prognosticators held a generally sunny outlook for the men from the Motor City on the belief that a Miguel Cabrera-infused offense and a Justin Verlander/Jeremy Bonderman-led rotation would lead to a postseason berth. Instead, Detroit limped to a 74-88 record and a similarly disappointing 78-84 Pythagorean Record.

While the offense didn’t reach the hyperbolic expectations that some held, the Tigers did plate the 4th-most runs in the American League. Where the team truly disappointed was in the run-prevention department: the club ranked 26th in starter FIP, and the bullpen also turned in a wretched performance, ranking 27th in both FIP and WPA. Detroit’s lackluster leather didn’t help things (they ranked 24th in Defensive Efficiency and 27th in UZR/150), but injuries and poor showings on the mound doomed the Tigers to a distant fourth-place finish.

Detroit ostensibly took a step toward fixing their leaky bullpen, inking former Blue Jay, Red Sock and D-Back Brandon Lyon to a one-year, $4.25M deal. Just how much will the 29 year-old aid the Tigers in upgrading a depleted ‘pen?

Lyon’s last three campaigns are a great example of why ERA is such a misleading statistic for relievers. Based on his ERA’s…

2006: 3.89
2007: 2.68
2008: 4.70

..one would assume that Lyon was decent in ’06, great in ’07 and kind of lousy in 2008. However, not a whole lot changed in Lyon’s repeatable skills over that time frame. Rather, the flyball righty (career 41.6 GB%) was the beneficiary of an extremely low HR/FB rate during that superficially impressive 2007 season: only 2.2% of Lyon’s flyballs left the ballpark that year, compared to 9.7% in ’06 and 9% in ’08. After that run of good luck in 2007, Lyon had the misfortune of posting a .355 BABIP this past year.

Here’s a look at his three-year Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), which evaluates a pitcher based on his strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate (thus rooting out Lyon’s wacky ’07 campaign):

2006: 4.18 XFIP
2007: 4.78 XFIP
2008: 4.33 XFIP

As you can see, Lyon’s ’07 season was actually his least effective campaign in recent years. On the positive side, Lyon posted the best walk rate of his career in 2008 (1.97 BB/9) and his K rate (6.67) was the highest since his lone season with Boston in 2003.

Marcel projects Lyon to pitch 62 frames in 2009, with a 3.98 FIP. That projection was made before Lyon switched to the DH league. He will however be moving from a great hitter’s park (Chase Field) to a slight hitter’s venue in Comerica Park. Let’s say that Lyon’s projection increases slightly, to a 4.05 FIP. Given those parameters, Lyon’s fastball/curve mix figures to be worth about 5 runs above what a replacement-level reliever (4.75 FIP) would produce. If we multiply Lyon’s 5 RAR by the average Leverage Index of a closer (about 1.8) to give him some additional credit for pitching more critical innings, he figures to be worth about .9 WAR, or about $4.05 million using a $4.5M/WAR scale.

So, Lyon figures to be worth most of the money that the Tigers will pay him, and he is coming off a season in which he posted the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. Adding a guy like Brandon Lyon to a club’s bullpen is not in itself a problem. Where the problems lies for the Tigers is that Lyon just might be the best option that they have for the late innings, considering Fernando Rodney‘s flammability and Joel Zumaya’s tenuous health.

Lyon seems like the guy who’s going to rack up the glory stat in Detroit, so he merits attention on draft day. Just don’t reach for him- plenty of other relievers have similar skill sets and talent levels. The only thing that separates Lyon is that he enters the game in the 9th inning with a lead between one and three runs.

Today, we’ll wrap up our look at the top offensive prospects in Double-A with the Eastern League. In case you haven’t gotten the chance to check out the lists for the High-A level and the other two Double-A levels or you would just like a refresher, here they are:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League

The Eastern League list leads off with a familiar face who might just be the best prospect in the game, and the rankings feature depth to boot. Among those receiving consideration but not appearing in the top five: outfielders Austin Jackson (Yankees), Nicholas Evans (Mets), Daniel Murphy (Mets), Jose Tabata (Pirates), Nolan Reimold (Orioles), shortstop Jason Donald (Phillies) and third baseman Wes Hodges (Indians). Red Sox first base prospect Lars Anderson missed the 200 PA cut-off.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

AA Eastern League offensive levels: Singles (0.96), Doubles (1.00), Triples (1.00), Home Runs (1.00)

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: .472 wOBA (.365/.460/.626)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Bowie): Runs (0.95), Hits (0.97), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (1.03)
Park-Adjusted Line: .376/.470/.639
Major League Equivalency: .295/.395/.479

I think that we have run out of superlatives to describe Matt Wieters. The switch-hitting, power-hitting Georgia Tech product also paced out Carolina League list, and what was said of him there still applies:

“Wieters’ performance was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. He switch-hits. He draws a ton of walks. He can drive the ball as far as anyone. Wieters’ performance actually improved significantly upon a promotion to Double A. Think about that: his .345/.448/.576 line at Frederick (High-A) was his weaker showing in 2008. He even comes with a pretty solid defensive reputation, despite being a pretty large human being (6-4, 230 pounds). Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix wondered if Wieters might be Joe Mauer with more power. This Pirates fan is going to go cry himself to sleep, haunted by memories of Daniel Moskos.”

Check out Wieters’ Major League Equivalency at Bowie- his performance basically reminds one of…well, Joe Mauer with more power. Gregg Zaun is the O’s starting catcher for the moment. But when he steps aside and reclaims his role as the “Practically Perfect Backup Catcher”, Wieters figures to rake from day one.

2. Travis Snider, Blue Jays: .366 wOBA (.262/.357/.461)
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: LF/DH
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .276/.367/.459
MLE: .222/.315/.354

21 in February, Snider will never be known for his defensive prowess- at 5-11 and 245 pounds, his build brings to mind that of Matt Stairs. The lefty might be relegated to DH duty in the long run, but man, can he hit. Taken with the 14th overall selection in the 2006 amateur draft, the Washington prep product has compiled a career .299/.375/.513 line in the minors, and he more than held his own during a short stint with the Jays this past September, batting .301/.338/.466 in 80 PA. At New Hampshire, Snider posted a near-.200 ISO as a 21 year-old while also showcasing a good eye with a 12.6 BB%. His contact rate is somewhat concerning (he whiffed 36.1% of the time at High-A and 32% at AA), but Toronto’s best young hitter possesses the secondary skills to make up for a middling batting average.

3. Louis Marson, Phillies: .391 wOBA (.314/.433/.416)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Reading): R (1.03), H (1.00), 2B (0.96), HR (1.22)
PAL: .317/.433/.416
MLE: .249/.369/.322

Lou Marson’s career got off to something of a slow start (from 2004-2006, he posted OBP’s between .329-.343 and SLG%’s between .351-.389), but he’s made major strides over the past two seasons. The 4th-round pick from the ’04 draft has uncanny control of the strike zone- he drew a free pass an astounding 17.4% of the time at Reading. While no one questions Marson’s plate approach, there are concerns over his power ceiling (Marson’s ISO was just .102). It’s possible that the walks will dry up somewhat at the highest level (pitchers might not be so stringent with a low-power guy with a great eye- the worst that can happen in most cases is a single). If you want to be really optimistic, you could think of Marson as Russell Martin-lite, though Kurt Suzuki might be a more reasonable approximation.

4. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays: .348 wOBA (.282/.302/.496)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .292/.311/.485
MLE: .243/.262/.388

One could make the argument that Arencibia should rank ahead of Marson on the basis of his power- Arencibia has a career .481 slugging percentage in the minors as well as a .214 ISO at New Hampshire on the heels of a .246 showing at High-A Dunedin. While Marson’s biggest question is his pop, Arencibia’s most glaring weakness is his plate discipline. Arencibia wasn’t exactly patient at Dunedin (4.2 BB%) and his hacking tendency only intensified upon reaching Double-A: he walked just 2.6% of the time at New Hampshire, posting a ghastly 0.13 BB/K ratio. Arencibia ranks well on the basis of his offensive thunder at a premium position, but major league pitchers are going to carve him up if he doesn’t learn to show a little restraint.

5. Fernando Martinez, Mets: .346 wOBA (.287/.340/.432)
Age: 20 (19 during ’08 season)
Position: Corner OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Binghamton): R (1.05), H (1.05), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .274/.328/.416
MLE: .222/.278/.328

Martinez is the most polarizing name on this list- it seems as though some are very strong proponents of the $1.3 million Dominican bonus baby, feeling that he has performed quite well in advanced leagues at an exceptionally young age. Others are less enthusiastic, particularly noting his durability issues (according to Baseball America, a bone bruise and a knee sprain in ’06, a broken hamate bone in ’07 and hamstring problems in ’08). Setting aside his numerous ailments, Martinez possesses a tremendous amount of talent. The lefty batter has not set the world afire during his pro career, but his numbers become considerably more impressive when you check his birth certificate- Martinez was several years younger than most of his peers. How many teenagers could avoid embarrassing themselves just two steps away from the majors, let alone hold their own like Martinez did?

When the Chicago Cubs inked talented-but-nomadic outfielder Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal earlier this month, the writing was on the wall for Felix Pie. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was ranked by Baseball America as Chicago’s best prospect in both 2006 and 2007, but it seemed as though the organization had soured on the Dominican Republic native. Despite a fairly impressive minor league dossier (Pie is a career .299/.353/.470 hitter) and above-average range, Felix evidently made a bad impression in two stale cups of coffee with the Cubbies in ’07 and ’08: in 260 career PA, the lanky lefty hit .223/.284/.331.

With Pie out of minor league options and the Cubs looking for some additional pitching depth, the North Siders have reportedly shipped their erstwhile top prospect to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for 25 year-old lefty Garrett Olson and A-Ball righty Henry Williamson. The merits of this deal from Chicago’s standpoint can certainly be debated- Olson has endured quite the rough introduction to the majors as well, with a 5.28 FIP in 165 innings. His work in the minors (8.91 K/9, 2.93 BB/9) suggests he’s capable of better. However, as a finesse, fly-ball starter, it’s difficult to project Olson as more than a back-end starter. Will the Cubs come to regret letting their former star pupil leave town for a B-level pitching prospect?

Pie is coming off of just a fair season at AAA Iowa, having batted .287/.336/.466 in 368 PA. His walk rate has never been especially high (6.4 BB% in ’08, 8.2% career), but the 6-2, 170 pounder did display decent pop (.179 ISO) and only struck out 16.1% of the time. The previous season, he scorched the corn fields to the tune of .362/.410/.563 in 250 PA. That showing was surely aided by a ridiculous .411 BABIP, but the line serves to show that that it wasn’t all that long ago that Pie was raking and looking like a future pillar for the Cubs.

So, Pie isn’t coming off of a great season, but he still held his own in AAA as a 23 year-old at an up-the-middle position. But with the rangy Adam Jones patrolling center field (+8.5 UZR/150 during the ’08 season) and the terminally underrated Nick Markakis holding down right field, Pie might head to the bench for the time being and perhaps take over for left fielder Luke Scott at some point. Another option allows the O’s to move Scott to DH and insert Pie in left on Opening Day. Here’s what Rotoworld had to say about Pie playing left field in Baltimore:

“Not yet 24 years old, Pie was a nice target as a true center fielder with power and speed, but the Orioles are an odd fit with Adam Jones already patrolling center. Pie is for left field, but he doesn’t offer nearly enough offensively to carry the position.”

Now, Rotoworld is a tremendous website and offers a level of insight that few others match. However, I have to take issue with this statement, and others like it that I have seen over the winter. I think that there’s a sort of misconception with players like Pie, who might not at first blush appear capable of “carrying” a corner outfield position.

Let’s call it the “Randy Winn Effect.” Winn, as you probably know, is the right fielder for the San Francisco Giants. Upon first glance, he might appear to be ill-suited for a corner outfield spot- after all, he has slugged just .445 and .426 over the past two seasons. However, Winn offers something that few corner outfielders provide: plus defense. Winn has posted UZR/150 figures of 11.9 in 2007 and 18.9 in 2008. While his bat might be average by positional standards, he adds a significant amount of additional value with the leather compared to his plodding peers. In fact, Winn ranked 5th among all right fielders in Win Values this past season, with 4.6. While that was a high-water mark, Winn has been worth an average of 2.9 wins over the past three seasons.

Which brings us back to Pie. Sure, Pie’s offensive output at this point in his career might look ordinary, perhaps even somewhat below average for a corner outfielder. However, one has to consider defense as part of the equation. Pie might not hit like some of the more thunderous bats that typify a corner position, but his level of defensive ability figures to be significantly higher than most of his peers. Those additional runs that he saves in the field count- he adds value in an area where most of his contemporaries harm theirs. You might hear an analyst say that a player like Pie is “wasted” in a corner spot. That’s just not true- the offensive standard might be higher in left field than in center, but Pie’s range saves runs compared to the average left fielder. Those runs count, too.

Let’s give Pie a hypothetical 600 PA for the Orioles in 2009. CHONE, a projection system that incorporates minor league and major league data, pegs Pie for a .333 wOBA, just about dead-on average. Given his sturdy minor league record, that seems reasonable. Maybe a tad optimistic in his first crack at regular playing time, but let’s stick with it for now.

With a .333 wOBA, Pie projects to contribute about 0 runs above average with the bat. Pie has solid scouting reports afield and has done nice work in a small number of innings for the Cubs. As a left fielder, let’s say that Pie is a +7.5 run fielder. Adding in the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games) and adjusting for replacement level (+20 runs), Pie projects to be worth a little north of 2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the O’s. For comparison, newly-signed Phillie Raul Ibanez was worth 2.2 WAR for the Mariners in 2008, and free agent Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 WAR. Both of those guys are better hitters than Pie, but Ibanez and Dunn punt so much of their value with the leather that the overall level of value between the three projects to be negligible.

While Felix Pie’s stock might have taken somewhat of a hit with a rough introduction to the big leagues, he will play the entire 2009 season as a 24 year-old, retains some promise with the bat and projects to be a significantly better fielder than his peers in a corner outfield spot. His contribution to the O’s might not pop out at one the way that a monstrous batting line does, but Pie’s combination of decent hitting and slick glove work makes him yet another interesting position player for an organization that already houses Markakis, Jones and catcher Matt Wieters. Pie is worth a look in deeper leagues and should aid a mediocre Baltimore rotation in the immediate future. Beyond that, the outlook could be rosier if Pie takes flight with his tether now removed by the O’s.

Chicago’s loss is the Baltimore’s gain: long-term, Pie should provide decent numbers with the stick while teaming with Markakis and Jones to form an athletic, run-saving outfield trio. When pitching prospects like Christopher Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz break into the big leagues, they’ll be flanked by three rangy outfielders who will cover the gaps with ease.

Continuing our series examining some of the most highly skilled and promising youngsters in the minors, we’re going to shine the spotlight on the AA Southern League today. The Southern League featured a very deep pool of players for this list. Among those who tore the cover off of the ball but didn’t quite make the cut: “catcher” Angel Salome of the Brewers, first baseman Gaby Sanchez and second baseman Christopher Coghlan (Marlins), catcher Adam Moore and center fielders Michael Saunders and Gregory Halman (Mariners) and shortstop Ivan DeJesus Jr (Dodgers).

If you need a refresher on the methods used for this list or you haven’t had the chance to check out the overviews of the other leagues, here they are:

Florida State League
Carolina League
California League
Texas League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

AA Southern League offensive levels: Singles (0.96), Doubles (1.02), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (0.98)

1. Cameron Maybin, Marlins: .381 wOBA (.277/.375/.456)
Age: 21
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Carolina): Runs (1.01), Hits (1.00), Doubles (1.13), Home Runs (0.95)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .283/.380/.467
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .232/.331/.362
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 3rd overall (1st hitter)

Peter Bendix wrote about Maybin a few months back, and much of what he writes pertaining to 2009 is important to remember: Maybin’s “The Natural”-esque performance in 36 PA at the end of last season was just that: a 36 PA sample. He’s an outstanding prospect, but it wouldn’t be advisable to expect instant success based on a few dozen trips to the plate. While Florida’s major prize in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis swap could use some more development time (he struck out nearly 32% of the time in AA), he does have quite a bit going for him. Maybin has a sound approach at the plate that allowed him to draw walks at a 13.3% pace, and he coupled that patience with solid power (.179 ISO) and fairly efficient base thievery (21 SB in 28 attempts). To boot, the 6-4, 205 pounder is a plus defender in center field.

The Asheville, North Carolina native may well have tremendous long-term value to the ‘Fins as a Mike Cameron-type player. Keep an eye on his whiff rate, however: strikeouts certainly do not preclude a player from becoming quite successful, but in the short run that elevated K rate suggests that Maybin would be best served honing his game at Florida’s new AAA affiliate in New Orleans.

2. Matt LaPorta, Indians: .429 wOBA (.288/.402/.576)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: LF/1B?
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .291/.404/.573
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .236/.347/.437
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 4th overall (2nd hitter)

Cleveland’s shiny new toy acquired in the CC Sabathia
swap, LaPorta possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to become one of the most prolific hitters in the National League. The University of Florida alum entered his junior season as one of the most highly regarded prospects in the college game, but an injury caused his performance to drop, and his name wasn’t called until the 14th round of the 2006 amateur draft by the Boston Red Sox. LaPorta declined to sign, returned to Florida for his senior year and proceeded to rake. The following year, the Brewers came calling much earlier, selecting the 6-1, 220 pounder with the 7th overall pick in the draft.

At the time, LaPorta was viewed as something of an overdraft, and others questioned why the Brew Crew would take a defensively-challenged player like LaPorta when the club already had Prince Fielder in the fold. LaPorta is a terrific example of why major league organizations just plain don’t draft based on the composition of the major league roster. Milwaukee took the player whom they felt had the best chance of becoming an impact player in the big leagues, regardless of position or fit. And for that, they were rewarded with the necessary munitions to acquire a hired gun the caliber of Sabathia for the stretch run last season.

While LaPorta struggled a bit in a very small 60 PA sample after Cleveland acquired him, he put together a tremendous season for Milwaukee’s AA Huntsville affiliate. He’s no great shakes in the outfield (no surprise for a converted first baseman), but a guy who posts a .402 OBP and a .288 ISO can play anywhere. Check out LaPorta’s major league equivalent line: it suggests that he’s not very far away from contributing in Cleveland.

3. Jordan Schafer, Braves: .386 wOBA (.269/.378/.471)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Mississippi): Runs (0.97), Hits (1.00), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (0.83)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .272/.380/.483
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .221/.331/.372
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 13th overall (7th hitter)

Schafer’s 2008 season got off to an inauspicious start as he drew a 50-game suspension for alleged use of Human Growth Hormone, but the rangy center fielder impressed once he did take the field. Schafer, who posted a .307 wOBA and a 6.8 BB% in 2006, continued his offensive improvement, working a walk 14.2% of the time while smacking 10 HR with a .202 ISO in a park that suppresses power. On the negative side, Schafer’s K rate jumped to 29.6%, and he managed a feeble .196/.306/.299 line against fellow southpaws in 107 AB. The lackluster performance against lefties was a continuation of a career-long trend: Schafer has batted .281/.349/.487 against righties, but just .236/.310/.331 versus same-side pitching.

4. Alcides Escobar, Brewers: .369 wOBA (.328/.363/.434)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .336/.370/.440
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .281/.318/.361
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 5th overall (3rd hitter)

Escobar has long been known as a premium defensive shortstop, but he showed some signs of life at the dish in 2008 as well. Sure, his year was certainly batting average-fueled, but the fleet-of-foot Venezuelan has the sort of speed (34 SB, 8 CS) that allows one to project a higher BABIP- he’s more likely to beat out some of those grounders than a plodding type. He’ll never be confused with a great hitter, but Alcides’ combination of contact, speed and excellent defense should be enough to make him a pretty valuable player.

5. Mathew Gamel, Brewers: .409 wOBA (.329/.395/.537)
Age: 22
Position: “3B” (corner outfield?)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .333/.399/.537
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .275/.345/.424
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 7th overall (4th hitter)

At first glance, Gamel and the Brewers appear to be a perfect match. After all, what could the righty-leaning Brewers use more than a lefty-batting third baseman? Bill Hall has followed up a very nice 2006 season with an adequate 2007 (.317 wOBA) and a putrid 2008 (.297 wOBA). Gamel to the rescue, right?

While the Chipola Junior College product displayed a good deal of pop (though his overall line was aided by a .392 BABIP), Gamel very likely lacks the defensive chops to remain at the hot corner. In fact, some scouting reports peg him as downright Braun-y at third. While errors are a poor barometer of defensive skill, Gamel’s totals are pretty astounding. At High-A Brevard County in 2007, Gamel committed 53 errors in just 113 games. In 2008, he “improved” to 30 miscues in 126 games. Gamel probably isn’t all that far away from contributing offensively, but in all likelihood he will have to find a new position, lest the constant “E-5” ‘s on the scoreboard give Milwaukee fans “Hebrew Hammer” flashbacks.

Kevin Youkilis has made quite the ascension during his professional career. A mildly regarded prospect coming out of the University of Cincinnati, Youkilis saw 242 other players taken ahead of him before the Boston Red Sox came calling in the 8th round of the 2001 amateur draft. The former Bearcat quickly became known for possessing otherworldly plate discipline, posting a .512 OBP during his New York-Penn League debut in the summer of ’01. Despite that eye and the subsequent “Greek Good of Walks” nickname that came with it, Youkilis had his fair share of detractors: be it his conditioning, advanced age or lack of thump while playing a power position, many questioned his ability to become more than a complementary player at the major league level.

The career .300/.444/.441 minor league hitter split the 2004 and 2005 seasons between Boston and Pawtucket before finally getting the opportunity at everyday playing time in the big leagues in 2006, at the age of 27. The ever-judicious Youkilis drew walks at a 13.8% clip during the ’06 season, posting a .357 wOBA and a .279/.381/.429 line. Youk followed that up with a .373 wOBA in 2007, improving to the tune of .288/.390/.453 while posting a 12.7 BB%. By this point, the scouting reports on Youkilis looked pretty accurate: He would draw plenty of walks and contrbute to a quality offensive attack, but the chances of him ever anchoring a lineup seemed remote.

Then came Youkilis’ 2008 campaign. The Greek God of Walks suddenly appeared to acquire the strength of Zeus, pummeling the baseball and popping as many home runs in ’08 (29) as he had in the prior two seasons combined. After posting a tame .149 ISO in 2006 and a slightly better mark of .165 in 2007, the 29 year-old raised that figure to .257 in 2008. Youkils’ ISO tied newly-minted Ray Pat Burrell for the 12th-highest mark among all qualified batters, and Youk’s .402 wOBA also ranked 12th, sandwiched between Hanley Ramirez and David Wright. While the 6-1, 220 pounder is still fairly patient (with a 10.3 BB% in ’08), he has become increasingly aggressive over the course of his major league career:

2006: 15.1 O-Swing%, 55.7 Z-Swing%, 36.7 Swing%
2007: 17.4 O-Swing%, 58.6 Z-Swing%, 39.5 Swing%
2008: 22.3 O-Swing%, 59.9 Z-Swing%, 42.4 Swing%

Keep in mind that we’re speaking in relative terms here: the average O-Swing% has been around 25% over the past two seasons, so Youkilis still goes fishing outside of the strike zone less than most. But, Youkilis has gone from uber-patient to more willing to go after an offering that he likes, be it in or out of the zone. Whether this trend is related to his increase in power is debatable, but perhaps he’s more apt to attack a fat pitch or even a hittable pitch a little off the plate these days. Youk’s plate discipline numbers, lowered walk rate and power increase suggest that he has traded some free passes for some extra-base hits.

Following his monster ’08 campaign, Youkilis has apparently cashed in: the lukewarm prospect who signed for just $12,000 has reportedly inked a four-year, $40 million extension with an option for the 2013 season. Youkilis had two years of arbitration eligibility left, so the deal buys out those two seasons as well as two years of free agency. How does that deal stack up for the Sox?

Let’s assume that Youkilis keeps some, but not all of the offensive gains he made this past season. Marcel’s 2009 projection looks appropriate: a .287/.377/.477 line with a .370 wOBA. Adding up Youkilis’ offensive value (about +18 runs), defensive prowess (he’s been about a +6 run defender when you weigh his last three seasons) and then account for his positional adjustment and the replacement level baseline, Youkilis projects to be worth about 3.2 wins in 2009.

An arbitration-eligible player tends to earn about 40% of his fair market value during his first season of eligibility, 60% the second and 80% in his final year. Here’s how much Youkilis (in his second year of arbitration eligibility) projects to be worth using a $4.5 million/WAR rate, if we assume his performance stays pretty static. Let’s assume he stays as a 3.2 WAR performer during his age 30 and 31 seasons, and then declines 5% in each of 2011 (age 32) and 2012 (age 33).

2009 (60% of fair market value): $8.64M ($14.4M free agent value multiplied by .6)
2010 (80% of fair market value): $11.5M ($14.4M multiplied by .8)
2011 (FA; full value, 3 WAR): $13.5M
2012 (FA; full value, 2.9 WAR): $13.05M
Total: $46.7M

Even if we assume that Youkilis gives back some of his power, sticks at first base and declines somewhat during the last two years of the pact, this deal looks like a winner for the Red Sox.

The terms of the contract might actually be more favorable still: a couple of readers have pointed out that Youkilis is likely to shift across the diamond to third base to make room for Lars Anderson. Youk has been a very solid defender at third in slightly less than 1,100 innings. Even if one is pessimistic and feels that he’ll be just an average defender at the hot corner from 2010-2012, Youkilis will increase his value to Boston if he shifts up the defensive spectrum:

2009 (60% of fair market value, 3.2 WAR): $8.64M ($14.4M free agent value multiplied by .6)
2010: (80% of fair market value, at 3B, 4.05 WAR): $14.6M ($18.2M free agent value multiplied by .8)
2011: (FA; full value, at 3B, 3.8 WAR): $17.1M
2012: (FA; full value, at 3B, 3.65 WAR): $16.4M
Total: $56.75M

If Youkilis can play an average third base from 2010-2012, then this deal will give the Sox $16.75M in surplus value (production minus his salary of $40M) instead of $6.7M at first base.

Kevin Youkilis may be acclaimed for his ability to work the count, but he has gradually become more willing to take the bat off of his shoulder and has seen his power production increase each season of his big league career. Perhaps he won’t outslug Mark Teixeira again next season, but Youkilis has proven himself to be far more than just a spare part in the big leagues.