Entering the offseason, the Mets figured to address their wretched bullpen (25th in Win Probability Added in 2008). The team from Queens did just that, acquiring J.J. Putz from the Mariners in a 12-player bonanza and inking free-agent Francisco Rodriguez. However, there were also rumors of the club fortifying the starting rotation by courting free-agent sinkerballer Derek Lowe (now a Brave) as well as Ben Sheets (no longer feasible, given his torn flexor tendon injury that required surgery) . Instead, the Mets resigned Oliver Perez, whose occasional brilliance is supplemented with a boatload lot of walks and homers (Perez’s three-year Win Value totals: 0.0 in 2006, 2.2 in ’07 and 1.3 in ’08).

The Mets enter 2009 with an improved ‘pen, but there are a plethora of questions about the men asked to give six or seven strong innings prior to those high-profile relievers entering the ballgame. Changeup artist Johan Santana may no longer be the unstoppable force of his Minnesota days, but 85-90% of peak Santana is still one heck of a pitcher. Beyond that, each member of the rotation has a question to answer. How healthy is John Maine, who was bothered by a bone spur in his shoulder last season? Can Mike Pelfrey (4.93 K/9 in ’08) supplement his two-seamer with something that bends? Will the aforementioned Perez (retained for 3 years and $36M) be anything more than a well-compensated league-average starter?

New York also enters spring training with an open competition for the fifth-starter’s role, featuring a former rotation horse (Freddy Garcia), a Washington retread (Tim Redding), the most hittable starter in the game (Livan Hernandez), a southpaw prospect (Jonathon Niese) and another farm product whose stats have never matched his generous scouting reports (Robert Parnell). For now, let’s take a look at Freddy Garcia

Garcia, now 33, was once as durable as any starter in the game. The right-hander topped the 200-inning mark each season between 2001 and 2006, generally providing Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low four’s. Chief Garcia’s combination of quantity and quality made him one of the more underappreciated hurlers in the AL, as he provided an average of 3.6 Value wins over the 2002-2006 period. The Phillies acquired Garcia from the White Sox in December of 2006 (for package of Gavin Floydl and Gio Gonzalez), figuring that they acquired a guy who would give them 200+ innings of quality pitching.

Unfortunately, Garcia’s career has taken a sharp downward turn since that point. The Venezuelan tossed just 58 frames for the Phillies in 2007, suffering from biceps tendinitis in spring training before succumbing to labrum surgery in late August.

Garcia missed the majority of the 2008 season while rehabbing, latching on to the pitching-thin Tigers toward the end of the summer. He made three late-season starts, including one against his former employer, the White Sox. Freddy had to bow out of that game with shoulder soreness, then had a similar issue while pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League.

The 6-4, 260 pounder once sat in the low-90’s and supplemented the heat with a hard slider, but he sat in the upper-80’s with his fastball in ’08, with a softer, less-utilized slide-piece. Garcia has always possessed a wide array of offerings (fastball, slider, curve, change, splitter), and he relied upon the changeup/splitter heavily in his short stint last year. Garcia’s health will ultimately determine how much he can contribute, but there’s little harm in seeing if he can reclaim his career with little money guaranteed: according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Freddy will make $1.5M if he’s added to the 40-man roster, with $6.5M in incentives possible. An MRI taken on Garcia’s shoulder in December showed no structural damage, which is certainly a positive.

The chances of Garcia becoming a 200+ inning starter again are very slim. However, he could provide some value to the Mets and fantasy owners if his shoulder allows him to continue his career.

Earlier today, we profiled Sean Marshall (a five-pitch lefty with shelf life, if not upside) and Aaron Heilman (solid reliever, dubious starter) as candidates for Chicago’s vacant fifth starter’s job. Let’s continue to examine that competition by putting Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin under the microscope.

Like Heilman, Samardzija is a former Fighting Irish star. The Cubs lured the potential NFL wide receiver to the mound from the gridiron with a five-year, $10 million big league contract back in 2006. Since then, the 6-5, 220 pounder has authored an inscrutable stat line in the minors. In his full-season debut in 2007, Samardzija scarcely missed any bats (3.77 K/9) in 107.1 innings at High-A Daytona, though his control was fair (2.93 BB/9) and he posted a 52 GB%. Bumped up to AA Tennessee for the second half of the season, Samardzija still didn’t smoke many batters with the Smokies, punching out 5.24 batters per nine in 34.1 frames.

Sent back to Tennessee to kick off the 2008 campaign, Samardzija continued to compile mediocre numbers. He K’d just 5.21 per nine innings, while walking nearly five (4.97 BB/9) in 76 innings of work. Despite that dubious performance, Samardzija was promoted to AAA Iowa. In the corn fields, Samardzija actually began to show some of the skills that earned him such a hefty bonus. In 37.1 innings, he posted rates of 9.64 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Promoted to the majors in late July, Samardzija tossed 27.1 innings for the North Siders. He missed bats (8.13 K/9), though his control was erratic (4.88 BB/9). The powerful repertoire which caused the Cubs to open the coffers was on display, as Samardzija’s fastball sat around 95 MPH out of the ‘pen. He supplemented the heat with a low-80’s slider and a mid-80’s split-finger/changeup.

Lou Pinella recently called Samardzija the club’s “sixth starter”, suggesting that the 24 year-old could be headed for AAA to stay stretched out if he doesn’t claim the fifth-starter’s role. Opinions of Samardzija’s future role (starter? reliever?) and ultimate level of success diverge wildly. Some feel (and perhaps justifiably so) that the power righty is still relatively new to the craft, having split his time in college between two sports. Others look at his mixed track record and big bonus, concluding that the Cubs spent grandly for a raw pitcher in his mid-20’s. Given Samardzija’s progress this past season, he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the season unfolds.

Gaudin, soon 26, has really been around for a useful pitcher in his mid-20’s. Originally selected by the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays in the 34th round of the 2001 draft, Gaudin has since been involved in three trades (including last summer’s Rich Harden swap), passing through Tampa, Toronto, Oakland and Chicago. The chances of Gaudin earning the job are very remote (he appears headed for the bullpen), but he did make 34 starts for the A’s back in 2007. The results were mixed, as he posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 4.52 BB/9, with a 4.69 FIP. The 5-10, 188 pounder is coming off of his best season in the majors. In 90 frames out of the ‘pen for the A’s and the Cubs, Gaudin whiffed 7.1 batters per nine innings while keeping his walks in check (2.7 BB/9). Gaudin provides adequate coverage in the event of an injury.

The thing to keep in mind with all of Chicago’s fifth starter candidates is that each could end up seeing some starts at some point during the season. Teams never go through an entire year using just their top five guys; often, upwards of ten hurlers will take the mound to start a game. Chicago in particular could need such depth: Rich Harden is exceptionally talented but notoriously frail, and Carlos Zambrano is starting to show some signs of fatigue from a heavy workload at a young age.

While the Chicago Cubs have made some curious decisions this offseason, the club still enters spring training as the overwhelming favorites in the National League Central. Fresh off of a 97-win season backed up by their runs scored/allowed total (+184 runs), the Cubs are projected to claim victory 96 times in 2009, per Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system.

While spots one through four will in Chicago’s rotation be filled by Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, several arms will duel for the fifth slot this spring. Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman, Jeff Samardzija and Chad Gaudin will all likely receive some degree of consideration for the job. First, let’s profile Marshall and Heilman.

Marshall, 26, is said to be the favorite to round out the rotation. The lanky lefty was recently tabbed by Cubs skipper Lou Pinella as the 5th man heading into camp. Selected out of Virginia Commonwealth in the 6th round of the 2003 amateu draft, Marshall comes at hitters with about as eclectic a mix of pitches as you’re going to find. Marshall supplements a tame 87-88 MPH fastball with a slow low-70’s curve, a mid-80’s cutter/slider and a changeup.

The 6-7, 220 pounder has tossed 294.1 career innings in the majors, posting a 4.97 FIP, 6.18 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9. Marshall is coming off of his most positive experience in the big leagues, as he struck out nearly eight batters per nine, walked about 3.2 and compiled a 4.39 FIP in 65.1 innings in 2008. Interestingly, Marshall has changed his pitching approach considerably since his first trial with the Cubs in 2006. Back then, he used his fastball about 52% of the time while also pulling out his changeup about 21%. In ’08, he used his heater just 38% of the time, with a changeup utilized just five percent. Marshall has filled the gap with more cutters and curves. There’s little upside here, but the five-pitch southpaw could enjoy a lengthy career as a swingman/innings-eater type.

Heilman, the erstwhile Mets reliever who spent a few days as Mariners property this offseason, has gone on the record as saying that he would like to start. However, his qualifications for such a role are not immediately apparent. From 2005-2007, the Notre Dame product had a good deal of success in Queens, though his FIP did rise each season (2.97 in ’05, 3.28 in ’06, 3.86 in ’07). As a fastball/changeup reliever, Heilman was an asset. In 2008, however, Heilman began messing around with a slider, perhaps in an attempt to show that he had the three-pitch mix to go out there every fifth day.

While it’s hard to say for sure whether Heilman’s experimentation led to his struggles, his performance did head south. He struck out nearly nine-and-a half batters per nine innings, but Heilman’s walk rate soared (5.45 BB/9), he gave up a few more flyballs (his GB% fell about five percent to 40.8%) and he surrendered 1.18 HR/9. The end result was a mild 4.91 FIP. The Cubs essentially swapped both Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno to acquire Heilman’s services. That’s quite the price to pay for a good, not great reliever or a kinda-sorta-rotation candidate.

As a member of the Angels organization, right-hander Bobby Jenks was something of a mythological figure. The gargantuan 6-3, 280 pounder, selected in the 5th round of the 2000 amateur draft, often had radar guns begging for mercy as he sat in the upper-90’s and hit triple-digits on occasion. With that hopping heater, Jenks mauled minor league hitters (9.4 K/9), but his control (an astounding 6.01 BB/9) and temperament left much to be desired.

Despite Jenks’ gifts, the Angels eventually grew tired of the flame-thrower’s antics and punted him off the 40-man roster in December of 2004. The White Sox stepped up and claimed the volatile-but-talented arm, and the club has been rewarded handsomely for its leap of faith.

Jenks burst onto the scene during Chicago’s World Series run in 2005, punching out 11.44 batters per nine innings in 39.1 frames. His control (3.43 BB/9) was just fair, but he managed a 2.69 FIP while showing off a 97 MPH fastball as well as two hard breaking balls (an 88 MPH slider and an 83.5 MPH curve).

The portly righty displayed many of the same attributes in 2006. In 69.2 innings, Jenks used a slightly-less searing 95.8 MPH heater and his hard breaking stuff to post rates of 10.33 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. Despite the occasional bouts of wildness, Jenks used his ability to miss bats and a newfound tendency to keep the ball on the ground (his GB% improved from 44.6% in ’05 to 58.8% in ’06) to compile a 3.20 FIP.

After two seasons of dominating hitters and allowing a few too many free passes, Jenks performed like a different sort of hurler in 2007. His K rate fell precipitously, from over 10 K/9 down to 7.75. However, he cut his walk rate by more than half (1.8 BB/9) and continued to burn worms (53.8 GB%). Jenks’ blistering upper-90’s cheese was now sitting in the 94 MPH range. The shape of his production was different, but Jenks posted the best K/BB ratio (4.31) and FIP (2.56) of his career.

2008 continued Bobby’s trend of missing fewer bats. A few short years after posting a double-digit whiff rate, Jenks struck out just 5.55 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.48 per nine. His groundball rate (57.6%) remained quite high and his FIP was still a fair 3.41, but clearly the present version of Jenks is not the same fire-breathing mountain man that was on display in Los Angeles’ farm system or in Chicago during his early days there. Jenks was once fairly difficult to make contact with, but opposing hitters have progressively had an easier time putting the bat on the ball:

Jenks’ Contact Rate, 2005-2008:
2005: 74.5%
2006: 77.8%
2007: 79.1%
2008: 84.5%

Jenks’ 2008 contact rate was one of the highest among all relievers. Residing close to Bobby were names such as Ryan Franklin, Brian Bass and Franquelis Osoria.

Bobby Jenks’ transformation from flame-throwing folklore to finesse pitching has been fascinating to watch. Chicago’s plus-sized closer has remained effective to this point (his 3.47 WPA in ’08 was a career-best), but it would probably be best to tread cautiously here instead of investing a high pick. Jenks could well remain effective with plus control and groundball tendencies, but his descending strikeout rate and back issues bear watching.

After nearly a decade apart, the Seattle Mariners and Ken Griffey Jr. will once again be united in 2009. Griffey, of course, spent the 1989-1999 seasons with the M’s, racking up a collection of numbers that portended to his ranking among the all-time greats in many categories, with a possible run at the home run record chiefly among them. While “The Kid” was often sidetracked by injuries, Griffey has still compiled 611 big flys and owns a career triple-slash line of .288/.373/.547.

Nostalgia aside, the 39 year-old that returns to Seattle retains just slight glimpses of the guy who was one of the marquee players of the 1990’s. In fact, Griffey has posted a total of -0.2 Value Wins over the past three seasons combined, with a declining bat and defensive work that rates among the worst in the game (Griffey posted a total of -67.8 fielding runs from ’06 to ’08).

Griffey will likely put the glove down with the M’s, taking over at DH for a club that received embarrassing production from the position last season (Seattle DH’s combined to “hit” .221/.273/.334). Will Griffey be an asset for the Mariners?

Number 24’s power production has been in pretty steady decline since 2005, as his isolated power (ISO) has dipped from .275 in ’05 to .234 in ’06, .220 in ’07 and .176 in ’08. He still manages to draw a fair amount of walks (around 14% the past two campaigns), but Griffey has essentially been a league-average hitter in two of the past three seasons, with a .336 wOBA in 2006, .369 in 2007 and a .335 mark in 2008. That production came at Great American Ballpark, which smiles upon power hitters (GABP’s three-year HR park factor is 128). Transitioning to Safeco will very likely do harm to Griffey’s waning pop, as the M’s home park has a 94 HR park factor from 2006 to 2008.

Also of concern is Griffey’s struggles with same-side pitching. Over the past three seasons, Griffey has managed a useful .272/.379/.461 line against right-handers, but southpaws have neutralized him to the tune of .202/.299/.350.

Griffey’s signing also potentially means less playing time for a few talented-but-unproven youngsters. Catcher Jeff Clement and outfielder Wladimir Balentien both figured to receive some at-bats in the DH spot, but Griffey’s arrival might torpedo that plan. The Mariners might have an outside shot of contention in a division without a standout club (PECOTA projects the Angels to win the AL West with just 84 victories), but the team would seemingly be best served by allowing Clement (a career .286/.377/.494 minor league hitter) to get some AB’s when he’s not spelling Kenji Johjima behind the plate and allowing Balentien (.277/.344/.526 in the minors) to hone his control of the strike zone if Endy Chavez is in left field.

If this is indeed a “baseball decision” (as GM Jack Zduriencik characterized it in the MLB.com article linked to above) and not just a means of attracting fans, then it’s still not especially clear that signing Griffey improves the club in 2009:

CHONE Projections, 2009:
Griffey: .332 wOBA
Clement: .338 wOBA
Balentien: .313 wOBA

The system is not especially optimistic about Balentien, but it suggests that Clement (the guy who figures to lose the most playing time here) would provide more value with the bat.

Ken Griffey returning to Seattle might be an interesting story, but the M’s prodigal son returns as a platoon DH with declining thump at the plate, and he’s moving into a power-suppressing environment to boot. Griffey is one of the better players that we have seen in recent memory, but his days as a force are well behind him.

Believe it nor not, the San Francisco Giants may just be stealth contenders in the National League West. The club surely won’t be considered front-runners with such a tepid offensive attack, but a potentially outstanding run-prevention unit including Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson and Jonathan Sanchez (plus that Zito dude) might be enough to stay on the fringes of the race. Per PECOTA, the Giants project to surrender the fewest runs in the National League (717).

Of course, the promise of the pitching staff is matched only by the ineptitude of San Francisco’s bats: the Giants are projected to plate a league-worst 704 runs. The team enters the spring with three-fourths of its infield unsettled, with only free agent signee Edgar Renteria assured of everyday work at shortstop. In particular, the competition at second base is a crowded one. Emmanuel Burriss, Eugenio Velez, Kevin Frandsen and Juan Uribe all figure to battle it out at the keystone.

Burriss, who turned 24 this offseason, surprisingly made his major league debut last April. The 2006 supplemental first-rounder from Kent State had scarcely played above A-Ball prior to that point, accumulating just 64 PA at AAA after jumping from High-A. The switch-hitter’s game is all about speed: as evidenced by his near 58% ground ball rate in the minors, Burriss rarely hits the ball with any authority (his career minor league slugging percentage is .337) and instead tries to put the ball on the ground and beat the fielders. Once he’s on, Burriss uses those wheels often, as he snagged a total of 68 bases in the minors in 2007, as well as 13 in his time with the Giants.

It remains to be seen just how well Burriss’ small-ball approach will work at the highest level. He performed adequately in the majors last season (.283/.357/.329, .316 wOBA), but a total lack of pop and mild plate patience (8.4 BB% in the minors, 8.7% with the Giants) do limit his offensive potential. He’s worth keeping an eye on because of the steals, but owning a guy like Burriss means that you’re sacrificing some production in other aspects of the offensive ledger.

Eugenio Velez is another switch-hitting speedster, though his baseball history is much less probable than Burriss’. Velez was selected by the Giants in the minor league portion of the Rule V Draft back in December of 2005, and has since impressed the club enough to earn himself a roster spot. The 6-1, 162 pounder had a big offensive season as a 24 year-old in A-Ball back in 2006, but that was more the product of an older player beating up on guys several years his junior than it was a sign of great offensive potential. The 26 year-old possesses more pop than Burriss (career .126 ISO in the majors), but Velez’s approach at the plate is less refined. He has drawn walks at a 5.3% clip and has swung at nearly 31% of offerings thrown outside of the strike zone.

Kevin Frandsen will likely just be glad to be back on a baseball field on a full-time basis. The San Jose State product received all of one at-bat in 2008, as he lost the year to a ruptured achilles tendon. The 26 year-old makes contact often (10.6 K% in the majors, 8.8% in the minors), but that’s about the extent of his virtues with the bat. The right-handed hitter walked just 6.3% of the time in the minors with a .131 ISO. Frandsen is listed as the starter on San Francisco’s official depth chart and might be considered the favorite to grab the second base job at this point. If you’re looking for a comparison, think Freddy Sanchez, minus the anomalous 2006 batting title.

Pull-hitter extraordinaire Juan Uribe is also in Giants camp as a non-roster invitee. The equal-opportunity hacker’s game is pretty well-known at this point: he certainly offers more thump than his fellow second base competitors (career .170 ISO), but his impatient approach has left him with a career OBP south of .300. Uribe’s glove work and ability to play multiple positions might give him a decent shot of making the club.

Earlier today, we examined the battle of attrition being waged between center field candidates Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. However, the Yankees have another battle for playing time brewing in right field between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. In the case of these two, judging by the 2008 numbers is probably not the best way to go about picking a winner.

Last offseason, Swisher was shipped from the A’s to the White Sox for a haul of young players: lefty Gio Gonzalez, right-hander Fautino De Los Santos and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Despite sacrificing a good deal to acquire Swisher’s talents, the South Siders quickly soured on the Ohio State star after he posted a .219/.332/.410 line in 588 PA. In fact, Swisher was so far down the totem pole that he rode the bench down the stretch in favor of minor league vagabond Dewayne Wise. Earlier this offseason, the Bombers acquired Nick and minor league righty Kanekoa Texeira for Wilson Betemit and minor league righties Jeffrey Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Swisher’s 2008 line looks very disappointing. However, as Peter Bendix pointed out, very little changed in the switch-hitter’s offensive profile. Take a look at some of Swisher’s key indicators over the past three seasons…

2006: 14.9 BB%, 27.3 K%, .239 ISO, 19.3 LD%, .287 BABIP
2007: 15.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, .193 ISO, 17.5 LD%, .308 BABIP
2008: 14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%, .191 ISO, 20.9 LD%, .251 BABIP

In most every respect, Swisher’s 2008 season falls in line with his work over the 2006-2007 seasons, when he posted wOBA’s of .368 and .361, respectively. The only big difference in ’08, when his wOBA dipped to .325, was an extremely low BABIP. Despite a healthy line drive rate, Swish posted the 4th-lowest BABIP among all qualified hitters. That number will surely bounce back, and with it, so will Swisher’s overall line.

Nady’s 2008 season was sort of the inverse of Swisher’s. Acquired from the Pirates last July, the 30 year-old posted a career-best .374 wOBA after compiling marks of .346 in 2007 and .336 in 2006. X-Man has experienced an upward trend in line drive rate and has hit the ball with a little more authority, but his overall skill set remains about the same…

2006: 6 BB%, 18.2 K%, .173 ISO, 17 LD%, .311 BABIP
2007: 5.1 BB%, 23.4 K%, .197 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .323 BABIP
2008: 6.6 BB%, 18.6 K%, .205 ISO, 24.6 LD%, .337 BABIP

The odds of Nady being able to sustain a .300 average and that high of a line-drive rate are likely slim. If he reverts back to being a .270-280-ish hitter, his modest walk rate means that his OBP will probably park in the .320-.330 range. Nady is not a bad player, mind you, but his best role would appear to come as a lefty-masher off the bench: though he has admittedly been better over the past few seasons, Nady has a career .317 OBP versus righty pitching, compared to .383 versus southpaws. Perhaps Nady has turned a corner, but it’s more likely that he remains a high-power, low on-base player best used in favorable situations.

Most projection systems seem to agree that Swisher will be the better offensive player in ’09:

Marcel
Swisher: .344 wOBA
Nady: .348 wOBA

CHONE
Swisher: .360 wOBA
Nady: .342 wOBA

Bill James
Swisher: .358 wOBA
Nady: .353 wOBA

PECOTA
Swisher: .244/.353/.460
Nady: .270/.323/.444

Given Swisher’s poor luck on balls in play and Nady’s batting average spike, it seems possible that these two will switch places this year, with Swisher being labeled a “bounce-back player” and Nady having the “disappointment” tag bestowed upon him. Swisher’s on-base skills make him the better bet to produce in 2009.

Despite spending copious amounts of cash this offseason, the New York Yankees do enter spring training with a number of question marks at up-the-middle positions. Will Jorge Posada’s shoulder hold up? (and if not, do you really want Jose Molina and his career .270 wOBA getting regular duty?) Will Robinson Cano bounce back offensively and defensively? Can Derek Jeter stave off decline?

Perhaps the most unsettled aspect of all is the situation in center field. The Bronx Bombers received precious little from the position in 2008, receiving a combined .261/.320/.391 line (the average MLB CF hit .268/.333/.419). The main culprit, Melky Cabrera, will return to battle another farm product in Brett Gardner.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, Cabrera appeared in the majors at the age of 20, and has seen fairly regular playing time over the past three seasons. The problem is, the 24 year-old has declined at the plate in each of those three campaigns. Cabrera’s initial showing with the Yankees was actually quite impressive: as a 21 year old in 2006, he batted .280/.360/.391 with a .333 wOBA. A player that young showing that good of a grasp of the strike zone (10.9 BB%, 22.3 O-Swing% 12.8 K%) usually portends to better days down the road.

In 2007, however, Cabrera actually regressed. He slugged exactly .391 again, but is OBP fell over 30 points, down to .327. His wOBA, about league average in ’06, also dropped to .317. The switch-hitter showed less restraint at the dish, drawing walks at a 7.3% clip and swinging at 29.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone.

After an intriguing debut and a mildly disappointing follow-up season, Cabrera saw his production crater in 2008. The Melk-Man authored a grisly .285 wOBA, hitting .249/.301/.341. Some of that dip in performance can be explained by a lower-than-expected BABIP (.273). However, Cabrera once again drew fewer free passes (6.5%) and often fished for offerings out of the zone (28.4 O-Swing%).

Cabrera’s steady decline is confounding. It’s not very often that a player debuts at such a young age, shows a polished approach and then subsequently becomes more raw as the years go by. The Santo Domingo native also hasn’t done himself any favors with his glove work in center field. Cabrera has a career -9.8 UZR/150 in center (though he did manage a +0.9/150 rating in ’08). That might not affect his fantasy value, per se, but it does make the Yankees less apt to stick with him.

The main competition for Cabrera will come from Gardner. Selected out of Charleston in the 3rd round of the 2005 amateur draft, Gardner has used a discerning eye and blazing speed to climb the minor league ranks. The 5-10, 180 pounder has a career .389 OBP in the minors as well as an 83% success rate on the base paths. Fresh off a AAA season in which he hit .296/.414/.422, Gardner made his Yankees debut last summer, posting a .282 wOBA in 141 PA.

While Gardner’s OBP skills and speed might make him appear as an ideal catalyst, there are some concerns about how his game will translate to the major league level. He does work the count very well, but Gardner also swings and misses a good deal more than your average water bug player (about 23% over the past two seasons in AAA). The 25 year-old also possesses very little pop, with a .126 ISO at AAA in ’08 and an even lower .094 career mark in the minors.

Gardner’s combination of skills (good eye, higher K rates, little power) is a tough one to project- it’s possible that some of those walks will dry up in the big leagues (think Michael Bourn), as pitchers are less likely to pitch Gardner so cautiously. Why not challenge him, if the worst possible outcome upon contact is a single? Pitchers did challenge the lefty during his initial big league action, as Gardner saw a fastball nearly 71% of the time.

Of course, both Cabrera and Gardner could just be keeping the CF seat warm for someone else. Austin Jackson, 22, is one of New York’s most well-regarded prospects. An 8th round selection in the 2005 draft, Jackson is coming off of a solid showing at AA (.285/.354/.419) and possesses an interesting blend of skills. The 6-1, 185 pounder doesn’t have one particular talent that jumps out at you, but he works the count decently, has gradually shown a little more power at each minor league stop and can swipe some bases as well.

Whether Cabrera or Gardner can hold onto the job long-term remains to be seen, but the Yankees need someone to solidify the position in 2009. In an AL East division that figures to be fiercely competitive (PECOTA projects 90+ wins for Boston, New York and Tampa), the Bombers can ill-afford to have a black hole in center.

The Seattle Mariners enter spring training with a wide-open situation in the bullpen. The M’s will no longer give the ball to J.J. Putz in the ninth inning, as the soon-to-be 32 year-old was shipped to the Mets in a twelve-player package. Also headed to Queens in that swap was groundball specialist Sean Green. After two years of, well, putsing around in the ‘pen, 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow will be moved to the rotation on a full-time basis. So, who’s left in that Seattle bullpen? Let’s take a look.

The top returning reliever, per WPA, is righty Roy Corcoran. The smallish 28 year-old turned in a 3.81 FIP and kept his infielders very busy (69.5 GB%), but there’s some question about the repeatability of his work. The former Expo/Nat struck out about as many batters (4.83 K/9) as he walked (4.46 BB/9) and his career minor league walk rate (4.14 BB/9) is rather high as well. Low-K pitchers can be plenty successful by inducing grounders and limiting walks, but Corcoran doesn’t appear to have the control to make that equation work.

Mark Lowe, 28, is coming off of a season in which he posted a 4.42 FIP. He punched out 7.77 batters per nine innings, but his control often evaded him (4.81 BB/9). The 6-3, 200 pounder has long been on prospect lists due to his mid-90’s heat/mid-80’s slider combo, but injuries (shoulder impingement as well as microfracture surgery on his elbow in an effort to regenerate cartilage in the joint) have held him back. If you’re looking for a guy who fits the closer profile from a “stuff” standpoint, it’s probably Lowe.

Like Lowe, David Aardsma is a flame-throwing righty without sharp command. The 27 year-old’s mix of mid-90’s fastballs and hard sliders have yet to produce anything but angst for his employers, as Aardsma has skipped between the Giants, Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox, before ending up in Seattle for minor league southpaw Fabian Williamson. The 2003 first-rounder has fanned his fair share of hitters in the bigs (8.65 K/9), but an atrocious walk rate (5.6 BB/9) has kept him from being anything more than a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.90 FIP. One thing to watch: according to our pitch data, Aardsma started using an upper-80’s splitter (thrown 10.9% of the time) in addition to his fastball and slider. The chances of Aardsma finally delivering are long, but the M’s have some experience with a control-challenged reliever adding a splitter and subsequently taking off.

Tyler Walker, formerly of the Giants, might also be able to work his way into the mix. The 32 year-old posted a 4.24 FIP last season, with 8.27 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. The 6-3, 275 pounder works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but has progressivley become more reliant on a low 80’s slider (thrown 30% in ’06, 31.4% in ’07 and 40.3% in ’08).

It’s also possible that some of the team’s rotation excess ends up in the ‘pen, particularly lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend. Rowland-Smith appeared in 47 games last season (12 starts), posting a 4.53 FIP. His fastball won’t overwhelm anyone (88.7 MPH), but he also mixes in a slider, curve and a changeup on a fairly regular basis. Similarly, Feierabend supplements modest heat (87.8 MPH) with three offspeed pitches, relying heavily upon a high-70’s changeup.

Another long-term name to keep in mind is Josh Fields. The former Georgia Bulldog closer was selected by the Braves in the ’07 amateur draft, but the club didn’t meet his bonus demands. After improving his stock during the 2008 season, Fields was nabbed by the M’s with the 20th overall pick and…didn’t sign, at least not right away. The Boras client recently came to terms, however, receiving a bonus nearing $2 million (as a college senior, Fields had up until next June’s draft to negotiate a contract). The 23 year-old righty fits the profile of a late-inning reliever better than any of the current options, as he comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a hard curveball. The 6-0, 180 pounder is likely the heir apparent to Putz in the long run.

The Washington Nationals’ roster is, to say the least, jumbled at the moment. Between first base and the outfield, the Nats have a consortium of promising youngsters, former and failed top prospects, injury risks and overlapping parts. Short of petitioning the league for an extra outfield spot or two, Washington is going to need to sort out how to deploy newly-signed Adam Dunn (1B? OF?), Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Willie Harris, and will also need to figure out if the brittle $10.5M combo of Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young can provide any value. Dave Cameron summed up GM Jim Bowden’s circus-like roster construction best:

“If Bowden was a general contractor, he’d build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof.”

According to Washington’s official depth chart as well as this MLB.com story, Dunn will be taking over duties at first base for the Nats. While the 29 year-old is allergic to all things leather (-12.6 career UZR/150 in the OF, -11.3 at 1B), shifting him to a corner infield spot is the lesser of two evils in the non-DH league.

There’s not much to say about Dunn’s offensive profile: while not aesthetically pleasing to those who fancy batting average, the former Red and D-Back has tremendous plate discipline and a ton of raw power. He has posted wOBA’s of .365, .399 and .383 over the past three seasons. Granted, those wOBA figures aren’t park-adjusted, but Dunn’s offensive production is still very impressive once you strip away the benefit derived from Great American Ballpark and his short time at Chase Field. Dunn’s park-adjusted batting runs above average over the 2006-2008 period: 17.9, 34.5 and 27.4.

The slugger who has eerily posted exactly 40 home runs each of the past four seasons will now reside in Nationals Park. We have only one year of data for the new stadium, so making any sweeping conclusions about the offensive environment of the park would be fruitless. It played as a slight hitter’s venue overall in 2008, though it slightly suppressed homers. Odds are, Dunn’s production will slip to some extent without GABP (128 HR park factor from ’06-08), but the park adjusted runs show that he’s still a very productive batsman.

If Dunn will be settling in as the everyday first baseman, then that leaves Nick Johnson and his partner is medical commiseration, Dmitri Young, without a place to play.

In case you have forgotten (perfectly understandable, considering he missed all of ’07 and accumulated just 147 PA last year), Johnson is a wonderful offensive player when he’s healthy. With a career .370 wOBA and a near-.400 OBP, “Nick the Stick” could be a fantasy beast in a utopian society where world hunger, global warming and war have all come to an end. Unfortunately, Johnson remaining upright for a full season might be the least probable of those four scenarios: Nick’s 2007 season was wrecked by a broken leg, and his ’08 campaign was derailed by a tendon injury in his right wrist. He has taken 600 PA in one season exactly once in his career (2006). Owed $5.5M in ’09, Johnson could find himself on another roster come April. The Indians, Angels and Giants seem like possible fits.

If the gifted-but-breakable Johnson seems superfluous in Washington, then it’s doubly so for Dmitri Young. Young came to the Nats at perhaps the lowest point of his professional career, having played poorly for the Tigers while dealing with personal issues in 2006. The minor league free agent resuscitated his career in ’07, posting a .374 wOBA in 508 PA. However, GM Bowden got the warm fuzzies for Young and his other minor league scrap heap find, Ronnie Belliard, and signed them both to misguided, multi-year extensions. Young took just 180 trips to the plate in 2008, as complications from diabetes led to weight problems. Outrighted off the 40-man roster during the fall, Young is currently listed as a non-roster invitee. $5M commitment or not, his chances of making the club appear between slim and none.

Now that we’ve assessed the first base situation, it’s time to focus on the truly messy conundrum: the outfield. First, let’s get this out of the way: the two guys that positively, absolutely need to be playing on an everyday basis are Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. While Washington has a lot of bodies for those three outfield spots, Dukes (24) and Milledge (24 in April) are two gifted youngsters who will be part of the next relevant Nationals team.

Dukes’ highly promising 2008 season has been chronicled here before: he posted a robust .382 wOBA and was worth nearly 3 wins to the Nats, despite taking just 334 PA. Dukes’ plate discipline, pop and athleticism figure to make him a well-rounded contributor. To do anything but give the 6-1, 240 pounder a full season’s worth of at-bats would be a masochistic act by the Nationals.

Milledge remains a fairly raw player, having drawn a walk just 6.8% of the time in 2008 while swinging at about 32% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. However, he managed to post a decent .268/.330/.402 line, chipping in 24 steals in 33 attempts. A highly-touted prospect with the Mets, Milledge posted a career .303/.376/.477 line in the minors and possesses the skill-set to turn into a big asset for Washington in time. As with Dukes, Milledge needs everyday playing time to smooth out the rough edges in his game. Platooning a guy like this would be detrimental to the club’s overall rebuilding effort.

If Milledge and Dukes occupy center and right field, respectively, then the left field gig will likely go to newly-imported Josh Willingham. “The Hammer”, picked up from Florida along with Scott Olsen earlier this offseason, has been remarkably consistent at the plate over the past three seasons. From 2006-2008, Willingham has posted wOBA’s of .364, .365 and .363. 30 years old tomorrow, Willingham has some deficiencies with the leather (-6 career UZR/150 in LF), but his patience and solid pop make him a worthwhile contributor.

So, Willingham, Milledge and Dukes are the likely starters. That still leaves a couple of former top prospects and a defensive whiz to fight for roster spots. Former Reds outfielders are sort of like erstwhile Cincy GM Jim Bowden’s “White Whale”: in addition to bringing in Dunn, Bowden had previously swung trades to acquire Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena.

Kearns has been a pretty valuable player at times in his career. A plus defender with good plate patience, Kearns racked up 4.1 Value Wins between the Reds and the Nats in 2006, and was worth 3.6 wins during an ’07 season where he supplemented mild offense with great D. However, the 28 year-old’s offensive production has essentially fallen off of a cliff over the past two years. Kearns was never a hulking slugger (career .175 ISO), but he posted a .145 ISO in ’07 and a paltry .099 ISO in 2008. He still worked the count well and was the victim of poor luck on balls in play in 2008 (.251 BABIP), but the lack of punch is disconcerting. Kearns was beat up last year, dealing with a stress fracture in his foot and an elbow injury. Perhaps I’m just stubborn, but I think that Kearns could be of some value if he ends up taking his $8M salary elsewhere. It wasn’t that long ago that he was a solid contributor.

It’s almost impossible to fathom, but Wily Mo Pena has been in professional baseball since the end of Bill Clinton’s second presidential term. The Mets originally tried to snag Pena out of out the Dominican Republic, but later voided the contract. The Yankees swooped in during 1999, handing him a hefty $2.3M bonus. Later shipped to the Reds for another ill-fated prospect, Drew Henson, Pena was in the majors with Cincinnati by the age of 20. Pena has since played sporadically for the Reds, Red Sox and Nats, and owns a career .253/.307/.447 line.

One has to wonder what sort of player the 6-3, 245 pounder might have developed into had he been given sufficient time to hone his craft in the minors. That’s not to say that the 27 year-old is a lost cause, but the song remains the same for Pena: feats of strength sprinkled in with few walks (career 6.3 BB%) and a whole lot of whiffs (32.7%). Pena is coming off of a wretched 2008 (.227 wOBA in 206 PA) and appears to be lost in the shuffle with Washington. His skill-set just doesn’t appear suited to part time or pinch-hit duties: with a long, convoluted swing and a propensity to chase (33.2 O-Swing% from ’05 to ’08), Wily Mo might not be that useful off the bench.

Would you believe me if I told you that Willie Harris was Washington’s most valuable position player in 2008? I swear, I’m not making it up: the light-hitting utility man somehow managed to pop 13 HR in 424 PA, good for a .340 wOBA. He also posted a +32 UZR/150 in about 700 innings the outfield. All together, Willie managed to be worth 3.2 Value Wins, surpassing Christian Guzman’s 3.0 (honest, that’s true too) and Dukes’ 2.9. Of course, there’s little reason to take Harris’ offensive outburst as more than a blip: the 30 year-old has a career .343 slugging percentage and .303 wOBA in the majors. With so many other bats ahead of him, Harris figures to use his outstanding glove (career 15.2 UZR/150 in the OF) to carve out a role as Josh Willingham’s legs in the late innings. For fantasy purposes, he’s a non-factor.

Every time I think about Washington’s outfield/first base glut, I keep on getting this image in my head. I mean, how are they all going to fit in there? Odds are, one or possibly two of the fellows listed above will be changing addresses sometime soon. With Dunn now in D.C., the Nats must not sacrifice the development of either Dukes or Milledge- those guys need to play.