For years, the path to Wrigley Field has been turbulent for Chicago Cubs position prospects. From Corey Patterson to Luis Montanez, Brian Dopirak to Ryan Harvey, Felix Pie (though Pie might yet make good in Baltimore) to Tyler Colvin, the folks from the North Side have had many a batter end up falling by the wayside. In fact, the last position player signed by the Cubbies to develop into an all-star prior to last season was Joe Girardi, all the way back in 1986.

The man that ended that ignominious streak in 2008, ironically, wasn’t viewed as that great of a prospect for the majority of his minor league career. Geovany Soto was the National League’s starting catcher in last year’s midsummer classic and took home NL Rookie of the Year hardware. In the minors, however, he often toiled behind more celebrated farm products, posting modest numbers that had most envisioning him as a future second-stringer rather than a cornerstone backstop.

Selected out of Puerto Rico in the 11th round of the 2001 amateur draft, Soto spent his first two pro years in rookie ball oscillating between catcher and first base. The 318th overall pick showed some ability to work the count and a modicum of pop, batting .260/.327/.387 in ’01 and .273/.328/.416 in 2002.

Bumped up to High-A Dayton of the Florida State league for the 2003 season, Geovany posted a tepid .242/.314/.316 line. He worked the count decently (10.4 BB%), but no one’s going to get excited over a .630 OPS. Heading into the 2004 season, Soto was in the prospect witness protection program: part-time catchers/possible first basemen who slug just north of .300 aren’t going to attract much adoration.

Soto showed signs of life at the plate at AA West Tennessee in ’04. He hit .271/.349/.401 for the Diamond Jaxx, displaying a good eye (12 BB%) and a little more thump (.130 ISO). The 6-1, 230 pounder got himself into better shape (shedding close to 30 pounds) and donned the tools of ignorance on a regular basis, catching 102 games. Feeling that the then-21 year-old Diamond Jaxx catcher was diamond in the rough, Baseball America jumped Soto up to the 14th spot on the Cubs’ top 30 prospects list following the season.

Feeling that he had made significant strides, the Cubs decided to promote Soto to AAA Iowa for the 2005 season. His performance didn’t collapse, but his offensive output was a bit disappointing: .253/.357/.342 in 292 AB. The 22 year-old did get one AB with the Cubs, and ranked 16th on BA’s Chicago top 30 prospects list.

Back with the I-Cubs in 2006, Soto had a similar level of output, save for an additional 20 points of batting average, a few less walks and a tiny bit of extra power (.272/.353/.386 in 342 AB). Soto soaked up a few more AB’s for the Cubs in September. BA (ranking Soto 17th) noted his improving defensive skills, but also felt that he “profile[d] more as a backup than a regular”, and that Soto was “destined for a third straight season in Iowa.”

The Puerto Rican backstop did indeed return to the corn fields in 2007, but he decided to transform into the Pacific Coast League’s version of Josh Gibson. Soto blasted the PCL to the tune of .349/.422/.640 in 444 PA. Sure, his batting average was sky-high (the result of a .411 BABIP), but Geovany finally showed some juice (.291 ISO) to go along with his discerning eye (12.2 BB%). That prolific performance caught the attention of the Cubs, who gave him a healthy dose of playing time in September. Soto soared up the prospect charts, ranking second in the Cubs’ system and 48th overall. BA pined that he “raised his ceiling from likely backup to potential all-star.”

That comment seemed prescient in 2008, as Soto made good on that all-star promise in his first full season in the majors. In 563 PA, he posted a .371 wOBA, ranking behind only Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. Batting .285/.364/.504, Soto compiled a .219 ISO ranked just three points behind McCann. In addition to hitting the ball with authority, Soto continued to be selective at the dish. He drew a free pass 11.2% of the time and swung at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is about 25%). If there’s one area where Geovany might regress, it’s in the batting average department. He did strike out 24.5% of the time, so maintaining a .280-.290 average isn’t all that likely. Given those stellar secondary skills, however, that hardly matters.

While more highly-touted bonus babies in Chicago’s system have often crashed and burned, Geovany Soto kept on chugging and has emerged as one of the most valuable assets in Major League Baseball. Catchers with his combination of plate judgment and extra-base sock are exceedingly rare, and the 26 year-old figures to turn in another all-star caliber season in 2009. Soto is no one-year wonder: he’s here to stay among the Mauers and McCann’s of the game.

Remember “Homer Bailey, top pitching prospect”? It wasn’t that long ago that scouts were drooling over the lanky Texan, whose mid-90’s heat and hammer curve impressed Cincinnati brass enough to use the 7th overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft on him. Dubbing him the “undisputed class among the nation’s high school crop”, Baseball America extolled his virtues: Bailey possessed “the best fastball (92-96 mph), the best righthanded breaking ball (a hard downer curveball), the best command and the most polish among high schoolers in the draft.”

While that was certainly a heaping helping of praise, the La Grange native lived up to his flame-throwing billing in the earlier stages of his career. Bailey made his full-season debut in 2005, with Dayton of the Low-A Midwest League. Bailey spit fire in 103.2 frames for the Dragons, punching out 10.9 batters per nine innings. He was just as likely to burn himself as opponents, however, with 5.38 BB/9. Despite the strike-zone hiccups, BA named Bailey the 38th-best prospect in the minors (1st in the Cincy system) prior to the 2006 season.

Bailey began his ’06 campaign with Sarasota of the High-A Florida State League, tossing 70.2 innings for the club. The 6-4, 205 pounder continued to maul batters at the lower levels (10.06 K/9), but he also nearly halved his walk rate, issuing 2.8 free passes per nine innings. The sharper command led to a shiny 3.21 FIP. Pumping gas and showing better polish, Bailey was bumped up to the Southern League, where he pitched 68 innings for the Lookouts. Homer got lucky with homers (0.13 HR/9) and he walked more batters (3.71 BB/9), but his 10.19 K/9 served notice that the Texan could miss bats at the upper levels. BA really showed Bailey some love that offseason, as he was named the 5th-best prospect in the game.

With such lofty accolades, Bailey entered 2007 with Sistine Chapel-high expectations. He was sent to AAA Louisville, where some cracks began to appear in said chapel. His K rate was good, not great (7.89 K/9 in 67.1 IP), but he walked 4.28 per nine, suggesting that he needed some additional time to hone his craft in the minors. However, Bailey was summoned to Cincinnati in early June, where he struggled to keep his head above water. Bailey’s K/BB was an ugly 1-to-1, as he both whiffed and walked 5.56 hitters per nine innings in 45.1 frames of work. Utilizing a 92.4 MPH fastball (thrown 71.3% of the time) and that patented mid-70’s curve (14.7%), Bailey posted a 4.92 FIP. Despite the rocky introduction, few seemed worried about Homer’s long-term potential: he checked in as the 9th-best talent in the minors, per BA.

Returned to Louisville to kick off 2008, Bailey improved somewhat, though his performance fell under the level that one might expect from a top-of-the-line farm product. The 22 year-old posted rates of 7.76 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9, with a 3.96 FIP in 111.1 IP. He got his second shot with the Reds during the summer, but things continued to go awry in the show. In 36.1 innings, he didn’t fool many batters (4.46 K/9), nor was he stingy with the walks (4.21 B/9). His FIP was a Boeing-level 6.41, as Homer lived up to his name with 1.98 big flys per nine innings. His once-vaunted velocity was mundane (91.5 MPH) and mechanically-minded analysts were none too pleased with that they saw.

Bailey has barely managed 5 K’s per nine in his short major league career. Drawing conclusions off of 80-some innings is a terrible idea, but he has had issues putting hitters away in pitcher’s counts. Courtesy of the insanely useful Baseball-Reference, we find that Bailey has surrendered a .287/.359/.440 line with two strikes between 2007 and 2008. For comparison, the NL average in two-strike counts in ’08 was .185/.256/.284. While the average NL pitcher turned batters into Tony Pena Jr. with two strikes, Bailey allows them to imitate Mark DeRosa.

Heading into 2009, Bailey has very little shot of cracking the Reds’ starting rotation. That might be for the best, considering his tenuous mechanics and pitch sequencing suggest that he could use some extra seasoning. It would be silly to write off Bailey, but some of the shine is definitely off of his star.

Back in November, Peter Bendix expressed his admiration for Florida Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco. As Peter put it:

“How many people realize just how good he was this year? Or, more importantly, how good he’s likely to be next year? Chances are, most of the people in your fantasy league are either unaware of Nolasco, or don’t fully appreciate how good he is.”

With most fantasy players squarely in draft mode right about now, this seems like a great time to hammer home the talent level and productivity of Florida’s covert ace.

Originally drafted by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2001 draft, Nolasco often posted impressive numbers in the minors. By the age of 21, he had turned in a knockout campaign in AA (107 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.11 BB/9). Still, the California native was sent back to the Southern League in 2005, where he once again struck out over a batter per inning (9.6 K/9) with better control (2.56 BB/9). Despite the impressive peripherals, Nolasco often flew under the radar in Chicago’s system, ranking 19th on Baseball America’s top 30 Cubs prospect list in 2005.

In December of ’05, the North Siders shipped Nolasco, Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto to the Marlins in an ill-fated deal for Juan Pierre. While Pierre would spend just one season in Chicago, Nolasco stepped into Florida’s rotation in 2006 and turned in a respectable rookie showing. In 140 frames, he punched out 6.36 batters per nine and walked 2.64 per nine. The flyball pitcher had some issues with the gopher ball (1.29 HR/9), but ended up with an adequate 4.68 FIP.

Unfortunately, Nolasco did not have the opportunity to build upon that work in 2007. Ricky’s entire season was essentially washed away by arm maladies, as he was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation in April and an elbow strain in May. He tossed only 21 innings for the Fish, posting a 5.44 FIP.

In 2008, Nolasco returned with a vengeance. After a ho-hum start, the 6-2, 220 pounder went on a tear during the summer months:

April: 26.1 IP, 13/9 K/BB
May: 34 IP, 25/13 K/BB
June: 35.1 IP, 29/7 K/BB
July: 39 IP, 37/5 K/BB
August: 43 IP, 51/4 K/BB (!)
September: 34.2 IP, 31/4 K/BB

In 212.1 innings, Nolasco posted a 3.77 FIP. He still gave up some taters (1.19 HR/9), but his peripherals were just sparkling: 7.88 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9. His 4.43 K/BB ratio ranked 7th among all starters, one spot ahead of stretch-run deity CC Sabathia. Ricky had always possessed a well-placed low-90’s fastball and a sharp mid-70’s hook, but he added another dimension to his repertoire in 2008 with a mid-80’s slider:

2006: FB 61.4% (91.5 MPH), SL 0.1% (82 MPH), CB 34.1% (74.9 MPH)
2008: FB 51.6% (91.2 MPH), SL 15.8% (83.9 MPH), CB 26.8% (75 MPH)

Supplementing those three offerings with an occasional changeup, Nolasco was more difficult to put the bat on the ball against. Opposing hitters swung at 28.6% of pitches Nolasco threw outside of the strike zone (22.1% in ’06), made less contact on those outside swings (64 O-Contact% in ’06, 60.7% in ’08) and made less contact overall (83 Contact% in ’06, 79.3% in ’08).

Ricky Nolasco does come with some risk. He has an elbow injury in his not-too-distant past, and he is coming off of a season where he threw considerably more than ever before: his prior highest inning total was 161.2, back in the Southern League in 2005. Despite those concerns, fantasy owners should take a long look at Florida’s underappreciated ace, with the hope that he avoids the trainer’s table. If he remains healthy, Nolasco could be a top-20 starter in 2009.

Those who are big, left-handed and throw very hard have a way of getting a preponderance of opportunity in professional baseball. Toronto’s David Purcey fit this axiom rather well during the first few years of his career. The 16th overall selection in the 2004 amateur draft, Purcey occasionally made scouts all tingly with his low-to-mid-90’s gas, but he also had them reaching for the antacids on a regular basis due to his scattershot control.

The former Oklahoma Sooner made his full-season debut in 2005, with Dunedin of the High-A Florida State League. Purcey displayed the high-octane stuff that garnered him high accolades, with an eye-popping 11.06 K/9 in 94.1 innings. However, in a sign of things to come, he also allowed 5.34 BB/9. Despite Purcey’s issues in keeping the ball around the dish, the Jays bumped him up AA New Hampshire, where he continued to both impress (9.42 K/9) and infuriate (5.23 BB/9) in 43 frames of work. Calling him a “physical pitcher with power stuff”, Baseball America ranked Purcey as the third-best prospect in Toronto’s system on the basis of a heater with plus velocity, a 12-to-6 curve and a developing changeup.

Returned to the Eastern league to begin the 2006 season, Purcey’s prospect status stagnated. The 6-4, 245 pounder posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 4.48 BB/9 in 88.1 IP. His ERA (5.60) overstated the extent of his struggles (his BABIP was .354; the quality of defense in the minors is lower, but that’s still pretty lofty), but the walks and a 4.59 FIP were still underwhelming. Like the previous year, Purcey received a promotion despite his lack of precision. In 51.2 innings for AAA Syracuse, the $1.6M man struck out 7.84 batters per nine innings but lost all semblance of control, with 6.62 BB/9. Not surprisingly, Purcey’s FIP was a grisly 5.54.

Following that campaign, Purcey fell to 9th on BA’s list of Jays farm hands. BA continued to point out his virtues, noting that “few left-handers can match the raw stuff Purcey possesses” and praising his fastball and biting curveball as “plus pitches.” However, his “large build and inconsistent release point” also led to speculation about a conversion to the bullpen.

After several years of frustrating the scouting community, Purcey appeared to make some legitimate strides to begin the 2007 campaign. The Jays dropped the big southpaw back down to AA, and he responded. His ERA (5.37) in 62 innings didn’t tell the real story: he continued to miss bats (7.98 K/9), but his LaLoosh-like control was much improved. He pared his walk rate down to 2.32 batters per nine innings, posting a 3.23 FIP.

Unfortunately, just as Purcey appeared to be making good on his draft status, injury struck. Purcey had to go under the knife in June to have cysts removed from his forearm and triceps. BA dubbed him the 9th-best prospect in Toronto’s system again, reporting that Purcey sacrificed a little velocity on his fastball for increased command: “Purcey is capable of dialing his fastball up to 93-95 MPH, but the Blue Jays have toned him down to the low 90’s to improve his location.”

Healthy and aware that well-placed low-90’s heat tops random mid-90’s flinging, Purcey turned in a very nice season back at AAA Syracuse in 2008. In 117 frames, he improved his K rate (9.31) while also displaying sharp control for the first extended period of his career (2.62 BB/9).

With a 3.56 K/BB ratio and a 2.99 FIP, Purcey earned a call-up to the majors for good in late July (he had brief cameos in April and May). The 26 year-old’s first taste of the bigs was a mixed bag: relying heavily on a 91 MPH fastball (thrown about 70% of the time), Purcey compiled a 4.67 FIP. He used the fastball, a hard mid-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and an occasional low-80’s change to punch out 8.03 batters per nine innings, though he was a bit generous with the free passes (4.02 BB/9).

Entering the 2009 season, Purcey appears to have a great chance of making the Jays out of camp. Toronto was a wonderful run-prevention club in ’08, but with Burnett in the Bronx, Marcum recovering from TJ surgery and McGowan still working his way back from shoulder surgery, the Jays’ rotation is a land of opportunity at the moment.

Purcey’s progression from inconsistent flame-thrower to savvy low-90’s strike-thrower is a great example of radar gun readings being just one of many components that combine to make a pitcher successful. You could do much worse than deciding to take a flyer on Purcey in the later rounds. He’s got talent, opportunity and a better understanding of what it takes to be successful at his craft.

Earlier today, we reflected upon the impressive performances turned in by Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz in 2008. While both could provide some value in 2009, it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect repeat performances. Now, let’s turn our attention to a guy who has nowhere to go but up (Andruw Jones) and a sophomore fighting to stay in the lineup (David Murphy).

It’s difficult to avert one’s eyes away from Jones’ abrupt, dramatic fall from grace; his 2008 season was the baseball equivalent of a car wreck. Andruw seemed well-positioned to rebound from a down 2007 season:

2006: .375 wOBA, 12.7 BB%, 22.5 K%, .269 ISO, .270 BABIP
2007: .314 wOBA, 10.9 BB%, 24.1 K%, .191 ISO, .248 BABIP

After a monster 2006 campaign, Jones saw his wOBA fall over 60 points. However, there were some reasons to remain sanguine about the long-time Brave. While his power was down in 2007, a .190+ ISO is still nothing to sneeze at, and his control of the strike zone remained largely unchanged. With an uptick in his BABIP, Jones figured to rebound from his .222/.311/.413 showing.

Suffice it to say, that didn’t occur. Signed to a two-year, $36.2 million by the Dodgers, Jones showed up to spring training looking a good 20 to 30 pounds overweight. Perhaps not coincidentally, he battled knee problems and posted a line that made Chin-Lung Hu feel better about himself: in 238 PA, Jones “hit” .158/.256/.249, striking out 36.4% of the time. Despite that minimal playing time, Jones manged to compile -17.9 batting runs.

Jones’ career cliff dive is flabbergasting. 32 in April, the Netherlands Antilles native appeared to possess the sort of broad skill set that would age well: he had patience and power at the plate, but he supplemented that with athleticism that allowed him to cover large swaths of territory in center field- check out his UZR/150 totals on his player page. Projecting where Jones goes from here is a fool’s errand, but it would be prudent not to completely write him off just yet.

As unbelievably macabre as his ’08 work was (the Dodgers gave him a unique severance package to go far, far away, and Jones is in Rangers camp on a $500K minor league deal), Jones is not that far removed from being a valuable commodity. His defense in center was still above-average even with all the extra girth, and Josh Hamilton (-16.4 UZR/150 in CF) is best off in an outfield corner. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities than Andruw works his way onto the 25-man roster.

While Jones is looking to pick up the charred remains of his career, Murphy is still in the early stages of his big league stint. The 27 year-old lefty was acquired from the Red Sox (along with toolsy outfield prospect Engel Beltre and low-upside southpaw Kason Gabbard) for Eric Gagne (speaking of charred careers..) in a July 2007 swap. Blocked in Boston, Murphy saw a good deal of work for the Rangers last season, batting .275/.321/.465 in 454 PA.

The former first-rounder from Baylor was often disappointing in the power department in the Sox farm system (the 6-4, 205 pounder slugged just .407 during his minor league career), so the .190 ISO with Texas was surprising. Still, there does not appear to be a whole lot of upside here: Murphy is in that age range where what you see is generally what you get. The overall package of mild plate discipline (career 7.2 BB%), solid contact (17.3 K%) and average power make Murphy appear as more of a good fourth outfielder than a guy you want patrolling an outfield corner on a day-in, day-out basis.

Brandon Boggs and Frank Catalanotto bear passing mention, though neither projects to soak up many AB’s in 2009. Boggs, a switch-hitting 26 year-old, has a history of working the count and striking out in excess of 30% of his trips to the plate in the minors. Both of those trends continued with the Rangers last season (13.5 BB%, 32.9 K%, .324 wOBA in 334 PA). A good athlete who can draw a walk, Boggs could be a decent extra outfielder, but the contact issues preclude hopes for more than that. Catalanotto will make $4 million in 2009, though his role and utility to the club are not readily apparent. The soon-to-be 35 year-old is the 5th outfielder and backup first baseman. If Jones makes the club, Catalanotto might get the boot.

The Texas Rangers received some unexpected performances in the outfield this past season. Sure, newly-imported Josh Hamilton was supposed to provide thump in the middle of the lineup and did just that, but the folks in Arlington also got the benefit of a career year from thirty-something Marlon Byrd, some late-season feats of strength from minor league bopper Nelson Cruz and a decent rookie debut from David Murphy. Heading into 2009, Hamilton (duh) and Cruz appear to have starting spots locked up. Murphy, Byrd, Brandon Boggs, minor league free agent Andruw Jones and Frank Catalanotto will battle for the remaining at-bats. For now, let’s focus on Byrd and Cruz.

Byrd did his finest big league work in 2008, batting .298/.380/.462 with a .370 wOBA. He walked a career- high 10.2% of the time, while also cutting his K rate to 15.4% (21.3% in ’07). The former Philadelphia farm hand was scrounging for a job as recently as 2006, having posted a feeble .294 wOBA with the Nationals in 228 PA. The 31 year-old has found Texas to be to his liking: he batted .356/.406/.510 at Rangers Ballpark in 2007 (.259/.304/.410 on the road) and continued to enjoy the home cooking in ’08, hitting .299/.398/.512 at home and a mild-but-still-useful .297/.362/.411 in the away grays.

The 6-0, 245 pounder has done an admirable job in picking up the pieces of his shattered Philly prospect days, and has at bare minimum turned himself into a very useful fourth outfielder. CHONE projects Byrd to post a .281/.352/.434 line in 2009, while PECOTA calls for a .271/.335/.426 showing. It’s probably best to view Byrd’s ’08 work as his high-water mark, but you could do worse if you’re in need of a short-term fix in the outfield.

Cruz, meanwhile, has previously been discussed at length on this site. The 28 year-old has long creamed minor league pitching (he’s a career .298/.367/.539 hitter), and he took the Triple-A terrorizing to new levels in 2008. Cruz pummeled to PCL to the tune of .342/.429/.695 in 448 PA. While the batting average was the product of a .363 BABIP, Cruz did show a better eye at the plate (12.8 BB%) and carried that over to the big leagues in a late-season trial (12.9 BB%). In 133 PA for the Rangers, the erstwhile Oakland and Milwaukee prospect batted .330/.421/.609 with 7 HR.

Back in November, I cautioned against getting too excited at the prospect of Cruz receiving everyday playing time:

“Cruz’s AAA line was legitimately impressive, but we’re talking about a 28 year-old whose skill set remains the same as it was entering the year: impressive power, but just decent plate patience and lofty strikeout rates. His small-sample mashing might engender lofty expectations, but it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. Cruz had a .388 average on balls in play, a very high number that will regress. Also, the chances of a guy striking out so often hitting .330 are essentially zero. “

That assessment might sound overly pessimistic, but I think it is important to keep in mind that Cruz is a AAA veteran in his late 20’s, not some youthful hot-shot who precociously dominated the upper levels of the minor leagues. The 6-3, 230 pounder could be useful to the Rangers-he has plenty of raw power-but his control of the zone has generally been just fair and he has whiffed nearly a quarter of the time in AAA. He’s interesting, surely, but his small-sample work with the Rangers might lead to unreasonably high expectations. PECOTA calls for a .260/.335/.484 line, which seems reasonable for a righty power hitter in Arlington.

Earlier this week, we discussed the case for and against veteran starters Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding and Livan Hernandez attaining the Mets’ fifth starter gig. Now, let’s take a quick look at the two prospects vying for the spot. Though Jonathon Niese and Robert Parnell face long odds of cracking the rotation out of the gate, each could play a role in Queens at some point this season.

The 22 year-old Niese was featured on this site in November. Back then, I offered the following take on the southpaw’s game:

“Jonathon Niese will likely never be a front-of-the-rotation stalwart, but his combination of solid K rates and groundball tendencies makes him an interesting young arm. There’s always concern with a pitcher like Niese who generates those K’s with a big breaking ball and a tame fastball (89.4 MPH with the Mets): conventional wisdom says that while minor leaguers may not be able to lay off of that 74 MPH curve in the dirt, major league hitters will show more restraint and be less apt to chase. With the high-80’s heat, the big-breaking curveball and so-so control, Niese seems to have a Barry Zito starter kit at his disposal, with better ability to induce groundballs.”

The Defiance, Ohio native does not come equipped with electric stuff, so I think there is some concern that the impressive whiff rates in the minors (8.27 K/9) might not translate quite as well to the big leagues. Long term, Niese’s big hook and groundball tendencies should make him a solid back-of the-rotation starter. It seems likely that the 6-4, 215 pounder will head back to AAA to begin the year. CHONE Projects a 4.85 FIP for Niese, with 6.93 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9.

Parnell continues to rank well within an admittedly top-heavy Mets farm system, placing 5th on the club’s Baseball America prospect list. The Charleston Southern product fits the archetypal “power pitcher” mold: he’s 6-4, 200 pounds and can occasionally ramp his fastball up to the mid-90’s with a hard mid-80’s slider. However, Parnell has lacked consistency since being snatched up in the 9th round of the 2005 amateur draft.

The 24 year-old was extremely raw in college (according to BA, he posted ERA’s of 6.82 and 8.86 during his last two college seasons) and continues to both tantalize and frustrate: in 471 minor league frames, Parnell has punched out about 7.9 batters per nine innings while posting an above-average groundball rate, but he has also walked 3.9 hitters per nine and is coming off of a mildly disappointing 2008 campaign. In 127.1 innings at AA Binghamton, Parnell struck out 6.42/9 while issuing an abundance of free passes (4.02 BB/9). Promoted to AAA New Orleans, he whiffed 10.18 per nine in 20.1 innings, but continued to struggle with his control (3.98 BB/9).

A starter throughout his minor league career, Parnell made six relief appearances for the Mets last September. In that short stint, he showcased a 94 MPH heater with sink as well as an 86 MPH slider. Given Parnell’s occasional wildness and his problems maintaining velocity throughout his starts (BA had his fastball anywhere from 89-97), this power arm seems like a good bet to end up in the ‘pen.

The Toronto Blue Jays were stuck between a rock and a hard place in 2008. The Jays were an excellent run-prevention club last season, surrendering just 610 runs (by far the lowest total in the game: the Dodgers finished a distant second with 648 tallies allowed). Toronto’s stinginess in permitting runners to cross home plate was a combined effort: the starters posted the third-best FIP in the majors (3.79), the guys in the ‘pen placed fourth (3.85) and the Jays flashed the leather, ranking third in Defensive Efficiency (.704). Despite tallying 86 victories and posting 93 Pythagorean Wins, Toronto finished fourth in the brutally competitive AL East.

Suffice it to say, things will not get any easier in 2009. With the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all poised to approach or surpass the 90-win mark again, the Jays stand little chance of competing. Last year’s strong rotation will be missing a few key pieces- A.J. Burnett defected to the Bombers, Shaun Marcum will miss the season following Tommy John surgery, and promising power pitcher Dustin McGowan is still in the process of recovering from shoulder surgery.

With the back of Toronto’s rotation unsettled, the opportunity exists for one of the more underappreciated youngsters in the minors to make his mark. Brett Cecil might just be the best pitching prospect that few have heard of.

Plucked out of Maryland in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft, Cecil was a top closer for the Terrapins in college. However, the Jays noted the lefty’s promising four-pitch mix (low-90’s fastball, plus slider, curve, changeup) and sturdy frame (6-3, 220 pounds) and envisioned a future starter.

Cecil’s transition into the rotation has gone exceedingly well. Sent to Auburn (New York-Penn League) to start his professional career, Cecil mowed down less experienced players. In 47 innings, he whiffed 56 batters (10.15 K/9) while filling up the strike zone as well (1.99 K/9). His heavy fastball made many a hitter put the ball on the ground, as Cecil posted a 57.9 GB%. The Terp’s 5.09 K/BB ratio and 2.05 FIP impressed Baseball America, as the publication named Cecil Toronto’s second-best farm product (behind Travis Snider). BA predicted that “his frontline stuff and bulldog demeanor” would allow Cecil to become “at least a number 3 starter.”

The power southpaw began the 2008 campaign at High-A Dunedin, but his stay there would be short. After punching out 11 in 10.1 innings, Cecil was promoted to AA New Hampshire. In 77.2 innings with the Fisher Cats, he continued to miss a ton of bats (10.08 K/9), limit the walks (2.67 BB/9) and burn many a worm (59.2 GB%). Cecil’s FIP in the Eastern League was a sparkling 2.71. Continuing his rapid ascent, Cecil reached AAA Syracuse last in the season. He issued a few too many free passes (4.7 BB/9) in 30.2 innings of work, but continued to fool hitters and keep his fielders on their toes (9.1 K/9, 67.4 GB%). BA Ranked Cecil 3rd in the Jays’ system following the season.

Brett Cecil might not make the Blue Jays straight out of spring training, but there’s a lot to like here. The big lefty has a track record of punching out a plethora of batters, has solid control and also possesses strong groundball tendencies. High K and groundball rates- that’s a recipe for success in the major leagues. He might just be ready to the jump to the highest level, too. Cecil’s translated FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94 in 2008, and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs the 22 year-old for a tasty 3.54 ERA, 83 K’s and 34 BB’s in 90 innings in 2009. The groundball-centric hurler would also be flanked by plus defenders, as Toronto’s defensive alignment essentially returns intact.

Cecil might not come with the notoriety of a David Price or a Tommy Hanson, but he’s an intriguing arm in his own right. If you’re looking for a rookie starter who could hit the ground running, then Cecil is your man.

Now that we have covered the cases for Freddy Garcia (a former workhorse trying to get his career on track) and Tim Redding (attempting to make an impression with his 6th organization), let’s turn our attention to the man with a recent track record perhaps more dubious than either Garcia’s or Redding’s: Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez, who turned 34 this past week, has racked up an astonishing 2,551 innings during the course of his career. I described Garcia as a horse yesterday, but the Cuban-born Hernandez has eaten frames like few else since debuting with the Marlins as a 21 year-old in 1996. From 1998 to 2007, Livan topped the 200-inning mark every year, save for ’99 (he fell just short with 199.2 innings). His peripherals have never been all that spectacular (5.69 K/9, 3.08 BB/9), but his league-average innings-munching (4.44 FIP) provided a good deal of value to Florida, San Francisco, Montreal and Washington.

Since 2007, however, Hernandez has seen his K rate fall to untenable levels. After whiffing 5.33 batters per nine between the Nats and D-Backs in ’06, Livan posted 3.96 K/9 for Arizona in ’07 and actually saw that rate fall to 3.35 per nine this past season.

Hernandez’s FIP (4.94) wasn’t as bad as his six-plus ERA, but the 6-2, 250 pounder is clearly walking a tight rope. Relying primarily on a “fastball” with beer-league softball velocity (he threw the 83.7 MPH pitch 72.4% of the time in 2008, 5th-most among all starters) and supplementing the pitch with a soft mid-70’s slider (16.6%) and a softer mid-60’s curve (6.7%), Hernandez was by far the easiest starter to make contact with.

Opposing hitters touched Hernandez’s offerings 91.3% of the time, nearly three percent higher than second-place sinkerballer Aaron Cook. Splitting the season between Minnesota and Planet Coors, Livan managed to surrender a hit total that looks like a typo: 257 in 180 innings. His BABIP was .345, but Hernandez’s offerings are put in play so often that he’s going to be subject to the caprices of his defense.

Inked to a minor league contract that will pay him $1M if he’s added to the 40-man roster (plus $1M in possible incentives), Hernandez is assured nothing from the club, nor should he be at this point in his lengthy career. Livan has had a durable, productive stay in the majors, but his days as anything more than a replacement-level arm are likely over.

Yesterday, we examined the multitude of questions facing the Mets’ rotation entering 2009 and examined fifth-starter candidate Freddy Garcia. Garica isn’t the only free-agent signee looking for a fresh start in Queens, however: Tim Redding will also vie for the last spot in the Mets’ rotation.

The 31 year-old Redding has been a roster nomad during the course of his career, not an altogether surprising turn of events for a hurler with a career 4.85 FIP. The Rochester, New York native was originally selected by the Houston Astros in the 20th round of the 1998 amateur draft. Redding pitched for the ‘Stros from 2001-2004, transitioning between the bullpen and the starting rotation. The right-hander generally didn’t find Enron/Astros Field/Minute Maid to his liking, as he posted inflated HR rates in three of his four seasons in the Lone Star State. He did turn in a decent 2003 season, however, with a 4.12 FIP.

Redding was shipped to the Padres in the spring of ’05 for Humberto Quintero, but scarcely pitched for the Fathers before being bartered to the Yankees during the summer. He posted a 6.61 FIP between the two clubs in 30.2 innings. Coming off of such a poor year, Redding accepted a minor league pact from the White Sox in 2006 and spent the entire campaign at AAA Charlotte. The veteran performed adequately, with 7.1 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 4.07 FIP.

The pitching-starved Nationals came calling in 2007, and Redding joined the club’s AAA New Orleans affiliate to begin the year. Striking out 6.32 per nine innings and walking 2.41, Redding was called back up to the big leagues for the first time since his ugly ’05 stint with San Diego and New York. In 84 frames for Washington, Redding posted a 3.64 ERA. However, the underlying numbers were less impressive: with a 1.24 K/BB ratio (5.04 K/9, 4.07 BB/9), a 5.17 FIP and a low BABIP, Redding figured to regress in 2008.

Redding’s ERA did head north this past season, as his FIP (4.93) and ERA (4.95) were nearly a perfect match. The 5-11, 225 pounder did improve his peripherals somewhat, with 5.93 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9, though he did remain homer-prone (1.34 HR/9). However, despite Washington’s dearth of starting options, Redding was non-tendered by the Nats. He latched on to the Mets on a one-year, $2.25 million deal earlier this offseason. While one of Redding’s competitors (Garcia) has plenty of health issues to answer, Redding is not entirely in the clear either: Redding had surgery during the offseason to repair a stress fracture in his left foot and is now dealing with a sore shoulder.

A four-pitch guy (91 MPH curve, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curve, low-80’s changeup), Redding lacks any definitive strength as a pitcher. His K rates are slightly below league average, his walk rate is ordinary and he’s a bit prone to grooving a pitch that ends up in the bleachers. That’s not to say he doesn’t have some value: the threshold for fifth starters is very low, and teams benefit from just getting better than replacement-level pitching from the spot. For fantasy purposes, though? It’s probably best to avoid Redding.