Spring training statistics just aren’t that helpful. Between the small sample sizes and the varying levels of competition (some pitchers get Albert Pujols; others get Brad Eldred), it’s extremely difficult to decipher what is meaningful and what is just plain noise. The leader boards this time of the year may make one feel as though they have gone down the rabbit hole into Wonderland. As such, it’s best not to get caught up in particularly hot or cold performances. Here are just a few examples of why you should view spring training numbers with a highly skeptical eye:

Brett Gardner: 3 home runs, .875 SLG% in 24 AB
Career minor league SLG%: .385
Career minor league HR: 9 in 1,456 AB

Rajai Davis: .864 SLG%
Career minor league SLG%:.407
Career major league SLG%: .354

Glen Perkins: 12 IP, 1.50 ERA
Career major league FIP: 4.87

Aaron Cook: 15 K’s in 14 IP
Career major league K/9: 3.58

There will be plenty of players labeled poised for a breakout season based on 100 at-bats or 30 strong innings in March, but it’s prudent not to place any great emphasis on, say, Gardner’s ability to take Brad Mills deep or Cook’s penchant for striking out young prospects and Quad-A hitters. Don’t ignore spring training entirely. But, if you’re making important decisions based on a guy’s numbers in the Grapefruit League, you’re more than likely going to be disappointed.

In an age of ubiquitous media, it’s easy to have knee-jerk reactions. This is true in baseball circles as well, particularly when it comes to prospects. If a hot-shot minor leaguer reaches the big leagues and initially disappoints, there is a tendency to label the player a “bust” or write him off as overhyped. However, some guys just take a little longer to make good on those lofty expectations; not every youngster hits the ground running.

Jayson Werth is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The Baltimore Orioles nabbed the lanky right-handed hitter in the first round of the amateur draft all the way back in 1997. A catcher at the time, Werth showcased solid on-base skills, but he failed to put much of a charge into the baseball. Still, his combination of premium position and a refined batting eye earned him plenty of accolades. As this Baseball Prospectus article notes, Baseball America ranked Werth as the 52nd-best prospect in the minors prior to the 1999 season (Werth dealt with a hairline fracture in his wrist during the ’99 season, an unfortunate harbinger of things to come) and #48 before the 2000 campaign.

From those promising beginnings, Werth would go on to disappoint the O’s during the 2000 season, and was shipped to the Blue Jays for John Bale before 2001 kicked off. Werth split the ’01 and ’02 seasons between catcher, first base and the outfield, though his bat did improve without the strain of squatting behind the dish every day. He posted a .271/.383/.472 line between High-A and AA in 2001. “Jayson Werth, Prospect” was back at this point, as BA ranked him 70th overall following the year. Playing mostly outfield in 2002, he managed a .257/.355/.445 line at AAA.

Just when Werth looked to be back on track, he stumbled in a return engagement at Syracuse in 2003 (.237/.283/.441, 68 K in 236 AB). That, coupled with a few sour cups of coffee with the Jays, caused Toronto to cuts its losses with the 24 year-old. Werth was bartered to the Dodgers prior to the 2004 season in exchange for Jason Frasor.

The career roller coaster continued in ’04, this time hitting another high point. Werth managed a respectable .262/.338/.486 line, walking 9.4% percent of the time while showing range in the outfield. He did whiff 29.3% while showing a platoon split (.247/.318/.419 vs. RHP, .293/.381/.630 vs. LHP), but all in all it was a welcome bit of health and production for a guy with a bumpy road to the majors.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Werth’s success did not carry over into 2005. He had the misfortune of catching an A.J. Burnett fastball in the wrist during spring training, and he just never got on track in between three stints on the DL. Werth posted a 12.5 BB%, but severe contact problems (33.8 K%) and minimal thump due to the banged-up wrist (.139 ISO) led to an anemic .234/.338/.374 showing. Offseason surgery revealed ligament damage in the wrist, but the procedure did not cure what ailed him. The 2006 season was lost while recovering, and the Dodgers non-tendered Werth prior to 2007.

Near anonymous a decade after being a highly-regarded high schooler, Werth inked an $850K deal with the Phillies before the ’07 season. Philly GM Pat Gillick, head honcho of the Orioles back when Werth was a first-round selection, took a low-risk flyer and was rewarded. In 304 PA, Werth compiled a tasty .385 wOBA and batted .298/.404/.459. The 6-5, 225 pounder drew plenty of free passes (14.7%), though he did swing and miss enough to call that near-.300 average into question (28.6 K%). Werth continued to incinerate southpaws (.375/.467/.591) while merely surviving versus same-side pitching (.257/.371/.389).

After Geoff Jenkins faltered in the early going, Werth became an everyday player for the world-champion Phillies in 2008. In a career-high 482 PA, he turned in a .382 wOBA and a .273/.363/.498 line. His control of the zone remained similar (12 BB%, 28.5 K%), but Werth also translated his athleticism to the base paths by swiping 20 bags in 21 attempts. Lefties continued to feel the pain (.303/.368/.652) while righties held him in check (.255/.360/.407). Werth’s broad base of skills (walks, pop, plus defense and base running prowess) allowed him to post 5.2 Value Wins. His open-market worth was a stunning $23.4 million- talk about a sweet return on investment.

The Phillies rewarded the arbitration-eligible right fielder during the offseason, inking him to a two-year, $10M contract. Even if Werth regresses somewhat, the deal looks like a bargain for the club.

Going forward, the 29 year-old projects to post another impressive campaign in 2009. His overall line might not look as pretty- as an everyday guy, he’ll see a higher percentage of plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers- but his on-base adeptness, decent power production and 20 SB potential make Werth worth a draft pick in all leagues.

Spring training just does not seem to agree with Angels starting pitchers. Last year, the top two projected arms in the rotation (John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar) were felled by health issues. While ace Lackey (triceps) returned in mid-May and turned in another solid campaign, number two man Escobar (shoulder) never threw a pitch for the big league club in 2008.

Unfortunately, a health issue has once again knocked out LAA’s projected number two starter, as Ervin Santana will begin the 2009 campaign on the disabled list with a sprained medial collateral ligament (also known as UCL, the stabilizing ligament in the elbow made famous by Tommy John Surgery). The timing is especially disappointing for both the Angels and fantasy owners, as Santana had just turned in a highly promising season (4.55 K/BB ratio, 3.30 FIP) an inked a four-year, $30M contract extension during the offseason.

With Santana shelved, the Angels must now select two starters from a group that includes Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux and Nicholas Adenhart.

Moseley began the 2008 season as Los Angeles’ fifth starter, making five early season starts. In all, the right-hander made 10 starts for the club as well as two relief appearances. The results look downright ugly (6.79 ERA), but an unangelic .379 BABIP did him no favors. Moseley’s FIP was a more tolerable 4.52 in 50.1 innings of work, as he posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9.

His work in AAA, however, inspires little confidence. Moseley struck out 6.4 batters per nine innings and walked 2.62, but he surrendered nearly 1.8 HR/9. The 6-4, 190 pounder was once considered a gifted prospect (the Reds drafted him in the first round back in 2000), but he’s definitely more of a finesse pitcher these days. The 27 year-old features an 88-90 MPH fastball, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup.

Loux is another low-octane right-hander. The 6-2, 235 pounder, formerly a Tigers prospect, went five years between big league performances. After last reaching the majors in 2003, Loux tossed 16 frames for the Angels last season. Loux spent some time with the Royals in ’06 and was released by the Mariners prior to 2007, at which point he contemplated hanging up his cleats. While donning the tools of ignorance a pitching prospect in an indoor facility, Loux switched places with the guy for a few pitches and impressed the facility owner. The owner referred Loux to an Angels scout. Returning to the mound in ’08, Loux posted rates of 5.02 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 with AAA Salt Lake City. The 29 year-old kills some worms (51.8 GB% in AAA) with a 90 MPH sinker and a hard mid-80’s slider.

Adenhart entered the 2008 season as the pride and joy of the Angels’ player development system. The lanky right-hander was considered a premier prospect in the 2004 amateur draft, but an elbow injury caused him to fall to the 14th round. Undeterred, the Angels ponied up $710K for Adenhart’s services. Possessing a low-90’s heater, a sharp curveball and a changeup, Adenhart got his career off to a great start. After punching out over a batter per inning in rookie ball in 2005, he split the ’06 season between Low-A and High-A, whiffing around eight hitters per nine innings while issuing around 2.5 walks per nine.

Bumped up to AA for the 2007 campaign, Adenhart threw 153 innings with rates of 6.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9. He got off to a superficially impressive start in 2008 at AAA and received a call-up to the majors, but he was beaten like a drum in three starts: 12 IP, 18 hits, 12 runs, 4/13 K/BB ratio. Returned to Salt Lake, Adenhart struck out an adequate 6.81 per nine but his control took a step backward (4.64 BB/9). Despite his struggles, the 22 year-old still has plenty of believers in the scouting community (Baseball America named him LAA’s #1 prospect during the offseason). However, Adenhart’s turbulent big league introduction and erratic work at AAA suggest that he’s not big league ready.

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s take a look at the guys who couldn’t catch a break in 2008.

1.) Livan Hernandez, Mets (Twins and Rockies in ’08)
6.05 ERA, 4.94 FIP

With a fastball that couldn’t tear through tissue paper (83.7 MPH), Livan surrendered an astounding 257 hits in 180 innings pitched. Sure, his .345 BABIP will likely fall somewhat, but Hernandez is still to be avoided in all fantasy leagues. His lone skill at this point is showing up for work every fifth day. Hernandez’s combination of average pitching and durability was once quite valuable (he tallied Win Values of 4.5 in 2003 and 4.6 in 2004 while with the Expos), but there’s nothing to see here now.

2.) Kevin Millwood, Rangers
5.07 ERA, 4.02 FIP

Millwood’s peripherals weren’t terrible last year (6.67 K/9, 2.61 BB/9), but he was felled by a .366 BABIP, highest among all qualified starters. The 34 year-old did surrender line drives aplenty, however (25.3 LD%).

3.) Javier Vazquez, Braves (White Sox in ’08)
4.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP

Vazquez has long been the subject of head-scratching in sabermetric circles. Low-90’s heat, a pair of nasty breaking balls, a solid changeup, strong K/BB ratios…Javy looks like an ace. However, despite strong career rates (7.99 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.93 FIP), Vazquez’s ERA sits at a fair-but-unspectacular 4.32. Vazquez always seems to go five innings strong, only to groove that One Bad Pitch (TM) that makes his outing look a bit less impressive. His career OPS against in innings 1-5 is .721. In the sixth inning? .867.

Javy posted another strong campaign in ’08 (8.64 K/9, 2.64 BB/9), but a .328 BABIP made his performance appear worse than it really was. Don’t be surprised if this flyball hurler posts a sub-four ERA, now that he’s out of The Cell and back in the NL.

4.) Ian Snell, Pirates
5.42 ERA, 4.57 FIP

Snell battled some health issues and his control in ’08 (4.87 BB/9). On the plus side, he retained his velocity and still punched out a decent 7.39 batters per nine innings. Behind one of the most execrable defensive clubs in the majors (the Bucs ranked 21st in team UZR/150 and 28th in Defensive Efficiency), Snell had the misfortune of surrendering a .358 BABIP. If he wants to get back to his promising 2007 form (4.01 FIP), Snell is going to have to cut the free passes and find something to quell left-handed batters. Relying almost exclusively on a fastball/slider combo, Snell has allowed the average southpaw to turn into late-career Todd Helton against him (.301/.387/.494).

5.) Andy Pettitte, Yankees
4.54 ERA, 3.71 FIP

In many respects, Pettitte’s 2008 season mirrored his work from the previous two years with the Astros and Yankees. He posted his lowest FIP since 2005, with a sturdy 2.87 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, the porous Bronx Bombers D let Pettitte down, and he allowed a .339 BABIP. As a pitcher who generates a fair amount of groundballs, Pettitte is going to need better work from 2B Robinson Cano (a plus defender in ’07, but he came in at -6.4 UZR/150 in ’08) while living with SS Derek Jeter’s limited range. New first baseman Mark Teixeira should help matters to some extent. A switch-hitting force, Tex was also a vacuum with the Braves and Angels in 2008 (9.4 UZR/150).

With spring training in full swing and most drafts set to begin, now seems like the perfect time to recap which starting pitchers might see a dip or rebound in their respective performances. Here’s a quick look at the five hurlers with the largest discord between their Earned Run Average and Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Let’s start with those who were a little too fortunate in 2008.

1.) Armando Galarraga, Tigers
3.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP

Acquired before the ’08 season from the Rangers for a nondescript minor league outfielder, Galarraga turned in the best starting line for a disappointing Tigers rotation. However, his peripherals (6.35 K/9, 2.97 BB/9) suggest that he’s more likely to post an ERA north of four and a half if he retains similar rates next season. Galarraga’s .250 BABIP (third-lowest among all starters) is sure to rise.

2.) Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
2.90 ERA, 4.03 FIP

Matsuzaka was the subject of one of the first articles on Rotographs, where I pointed out several trends that portend to a less shiny ERA in 2009. Dice-K missed bats (8.27 K/9), but he was the beneficiary of a .267 BABIP, a high strand rate (80.6 LOB%) and a low HR/FB rate (6.1%). Add in a maddening tendency to dish out free passes (5.05 BB/9), and Matsuzaka’s year begins to lose some of its luster.

3.) Johan Santana, Mets
2.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP

We’re obviously speaking in relative terms here: Santana’s FIP ranked 16th among all starters, as he whiffed 7.91 batters per nine innings with 2.42 BB/9. The soon-to-be 30 year-old is still one of the prime starters in the NL, if not quite the cyborg that tore through the AL earlier in the decade. With a lower strand rate (his 82.6% mark was the highest among all starters), Santana’s ERA will likely revert to great as opposed to otherworldly.

4.) Joe Saunders, Angels
3.41 ERA, 4.36 FIP

A former first-rounder out of Virginia Tech, Saunders looks like he should fool batters. The 6-3 southpaw has fair velocity on his fastball (91 MPH) and complements the heater with a changeup, curveball and occasional slider. While Saunders possesses solid control (2.41 BB/9), his K rate (4.68 per nine) and low BABIP (.267) suggest that he’s more Average Joe than fledging ace.

5.) Gavin Floyd, White Sox
3.84 ERA, 4.77 FIP

The perennial prospect finally turned in a full season in a major league rotation, tossing 206.1 frames for the White Sox. The former Phillies farm hand did perform better in the second half of the year (6.65 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 after the all-star break, 6.04 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 prior), but Floyd had auspicious luck on balls put in play (.268 BABIP) and southpaws continued to rake against him (.259/.340/.485).

The Chicago White Sox entered the 2008 season facing an identity crisis. Coming off of a disappointing 72-win campaign, the South Siders possessed an aging roster and a farm system that had become fallow due to years of conservative drafting. Baseball America ranked the Chicago system 28th-best before the year, leaving an ominous forecast: “With an aging roster in Chicago that stumbled in ’07, the White Sox could be in for a long dry spell.”

Instead, the Pale Hose tallied 89 victories (supported by a +82 run differential). Southpaw John Danks emerged as a potential ace, and the maligned player development program received an infusion of much-needed position player talent. The White Sox system won’t be confused with that of the A’s or Rangers any time soon, but draftees Gordon Beckham (a middle infielder with a quality bat) and Jordan Danks (John’s brother; a rangy outfielder snagged out of Texas), as well as potential secondary-skills monster Tyler Flowers (a C/1B/DH to-be-named-later picked up in the Javier Vazquez deal) gave the system a boost. The Sox also dipped into the international market, signing a highly-touted Cuban for the second straight year.

Dayan Viciedo, who turns 20 this week, inked a four-year major league contract paying him a $4 million bonus and ensuring $10 million overall. The star of Cuba’s junior national team defected in May according to Baseball America, taking a boat to Mexico before etablishing residency in the Dominican Republic. He then shifted to Miami with his agent, Jaime Torres.

While Alexei Ramirez is a sleek athlete known for his speed and quick wrists, Viciedo is a burly right-handed hitter noted for his immense power. As you can see from this video, Viciedo has a quiet, powerful swing. Although this sounds a bit on the hyperbolic side, BA commented that he “has the power to hit 40-plus home runs in season, thanks to a quick swing that’s triggered by strong wrists.”

Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein also extolled Viciedo’s virtues (subscription required), dubbing him the fourth-best prospect in the White Sox System. “Viciedo”, Goldstein noted, “has the potential to be a top-line offensive prospect. He combines brute strength with incredible bat speed, and he’s one of those rare players for whom solid contact “sounds different” when he can fully square up on a fastball.”

While it seems as though a near-consensus exists regarding Dayan’s hitting ability, his skill set afield is much less heralded. Viciedo is listed at 5-11 and 240 pounds on MLB.com, and he was reportedly heavier than that when the White Sox first scouted him. With an ample frame, he could end up shifting down the defensive spectrum to first base or DH. Here’s one scout’s take on Viciedo:

“His body could go the same route as Livan Hernandez, and when I saw him in Mexico, he wasn’t very good at third base anymore,” one international scouting director said. “But he can really hit; in fact, I think he’s probably a better hitter than [Angel] Villalona.”

There have been some rumblings that Viciedo might have a shot of cracking the opening day roster for the White Sox. However, as Goldstein pointed out, “that’s more than a bit aggressive.” While spring training stats can be awfully misleading, he hasn’t hurt his case with two homers in 15 at-bats. The more likely scenario entails Viciedo starting the year in the minors, perhaps at Double-A. Long-term, he’s certainly someone to watch closely.

Fields and Betemit look like a decent platoon duo, but third might be there for the Cuban if he has the defensive chops. If not, DH and 1B will also be vacated sometime soon, with Jim Thome and Paul Konerko reaching the latter stages of their respective careers.

Yesterday, we profiled White Sox third base candidate Josh Fields. The former-first rounder has been a mild disappointment for Chicago, as the 26 year-old enters the 2009 season having yet to secure an everyday job. Today, let’s examine another guy who was once highly-touted, Wilson Betemit.

Betemit knows a thing or two about heightened expectations. The switch-hitter was once the next big thing in the Atlanta farm system, having signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1996. Betemit’s deal put the Braves in a bit of hot water, as birth certificate shenanigans caused confusion. Apparently, he was just 14 when he came to terms with Atlanta- international players are not eligible to sign until age 16. The Braves took a $100K fine and Betemit attempted to become a free agent, but the situation eventually blew over and the prized youngster took the field for the organization.

The results were fairly promising for such a youthful player, as Betemit raked in rookie ball and Low-A in 1999 and 2000. He held his own at High-A as a teenager in 2001 (.277/.326/.412) and smoked Double-A late in the season (.355/.395/.514). Baseball America was smitten with the then-shortstop, naming him the 29th best prospect in the game in ’01 and #8 overall in 2002. He kept his head above water at AAA between 2002 and 2004 (his career line at the level is .263/.325/.421), and he saw his first significant action with the Braves as a 23 year-old in 2005.

Betemit was only a part-time SS by that point, but he posted a tasty .305/.359/.435 showing in 274 PA. Since that point, however, Betemit’s progress at the plate has basically stalled. Following his .337 wOBA with Atlanta in ’05, he has posted marks of .336 in 2006 (split between the Braves and the Dodgers), .342 in 2007 (Dodgers and Yankees), and .308 this past year in the Bronx.

Over the course of his big league career, Betemit has shown decent plate discipline (9 BB%) and a propensity to whiff (28.6 K%), though he kept the K’s and eschewed the walks while posting a 3.1 BB% with the Yankees in limited 2008 playing time. While battling pink eye and a hamstring pull, he ventured outside of the strike zone over 31% of the time in sporadic AB’s for New York, a hefty increase over his previous rates. The Yankees booted Betemit to the South Side of Chicago in an offseason swap involving Nick Swisher.

It’s unfair to label Betemit a “bust”- the 27 year-old has authored a decent .260/.325/.437 career line in the majors- but it’s clear that the thrice-traded former top prospect has fallen short of expectations. His potent bat stopped progressing, and his big 6-3 frame necessitated a shift primarily to the infield corners (where his glove still does him no favors, with a career -8.9 UZR at third).

Betemit hits both ways, but he has done most of his damage against right-handers (.269/.339/.460 career) while generally flailing versus southpaws (.232/.276/.360). Given Fields’ lefty-lashing tendencies, a platoon (AKA a fantasy owner’s worst nightmare) suggests itself. Betemit has his uses on a major league roster as a reserve/platoon player with some pop, but he’s probably not someone deserving of a roster spot in most fantasy leagues.

The lineup on the South Side of Chicago is anything but set at the present moment. The White Sox have three playing time wars being waged, with center field, second base and the hot corner all up for grabs. The third base tussle features a former top prospect whose star has dimmed, a utility man imported from the Bronx, and a young Cuban signee. Let’s begin with the fallen farm product.

When the White Sox plucked Josh Fields with the 18th overall selection in the ’04 amateur draft, he was expected to be the heir apparent to Joe Crede. The Oklahoma State product didn’t overwhelm anyone during stints at High-A Winston Salem in 2004 (.285/.332/.445) or AA Birmingham in 2005 (.252/.341/.409), but he remained well-liked by scouts and rewarded that faith with a more powerful .305/.379/.515 line with AAA Charlotte in 2006. Some caveats do apply, however. Charlotte is a tremendous power park (inflating HR production by 32% from 2006-2008), so his park adjusted line was a more tame .299/.374/.484, and he did whiff nearly 30% of the time.

Fields opened the 2007 season back in the International League (batting .283/.394/.498 with a 16 BB%), but he found himself in the majors that summer as Crede hit the DL and eventually the surgeon’s table with a balky back. The 6-1, 220 pound Fields showed plenty of power in a park that smiles upon righty pull-hitters, posting a .236 ISO and 23 home runs in 418 PA. His control of the strike zone was unrefined, however, as he punched out 33.5% of the time and posted an 8.6 BB%.

Instead of building upon his respectable big league showing, Fields turned in a season to forget in 2008. Sent back to Charlotte, he batted .246/.341/.431, showing patience (11.8 BB%) but also an alarming propensity to swing and miss (35.5 K%). Fields battled a right knee injury that required offseason surgery, and found himself grabbing pine in favor of the hacktastic Juan Uribe when Crede’s back went kaput once again. Both of those fellows have since moved on, and Fields appears to have the upper hand on the job at this juncture.

The 26 year-old bears resemblance to Arizona Diamondbacks third-sacker Mark Reynolds. Both are right-handed batters with pop and adequate walk rates, but both are also afflicted with contact issues and can be neutralized by quality same-side breaking stuff. Fields has roped southpaws in the big leagues (.309/.363/.667 in 136 PA) and in the minors (.283/.389/.504), but his work against righties (.202/.279/.368 in 342 big league PA’s, .265/.348/.439 in the minors) hasn’t been anything to write Ozzie Guillen about. As such, he might end up in a platoon with Wilson Betemit.

Most projection systems peg Fields to post league-average numbers at the hot corner in 2009: CHONE forecasts a .247/.331/.435 line, while PECOTA doled out a .236/.324/.437 prognostication. Fields isn’t a bad fallback option if he secures a starting job, but he’s probably more acceptable regular than exceptional player.

In 2009, the American League East figures to host a battle of potent opposing forces not seen since Red Sox fan Stephen King authored The Stand. The Sox, Yankees and Rays are arguably the three most complete teams in baseball, yet at least one of the clubs will be bitterly viewing October baseball from the recliner instead of experiencing it firsthand. With the gap between the trio extremely slim (BP’s PECOTA system has all three within 92-98 victories), one big performance could make all the difference. From Boston’s perspective, perhaps no one player will be more closely scrutinized than “Big Papi”, David Ortiz.

Ortiz’s career path hasn’t exactly been conventional. Signed by the Seattle Mariners back in 1992, the Dominican Republic native was shipped to Minnesota as the PTBNL in a September 1996 trade for third baseman Dave Hollins. Ortiz never cracked 500 PA’s in a season for the Twins, generally posting wOBA’s in the .350 range. Respectable for a DH, but the Twinkies decided to cut bait after a 2002 season in which the 26 year-old batted .272/.339/.500 in 466 PA. Ortiz’s tenure in Minnesota is remembered more for injuries (wirst and knee) and unfulfilled promise than anything else.

The rest, of course, is history. Signed for just one year and $1.25 million prior to the 2003 season, Ortiz exploded in Boston. From 2003-2007, “Big Papi” posted continually improved his performance, becoming a devastating hitter. His wOBA’s over that period: .400, .408, .418 and .448. He slugged .600+ from ’04 to ’07 (his .592 mark in ’03 just missed), and his Win Values were truly impressive: 3.4 in ’03, 4.7 in ’04, 5.8 in ’05, 5.9 in ’06 and 6.7 in ’07.

In 2008, however, Ortiz’s performance went from that of a super hero to the realm of mere mortals. During his age 32 season, the 6-4, 230 pound slugger dealt with a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Wrist injuries often sap a player’s bat control and power, and that appeared to be the case with Ortiz. He turned in a merely good .264/.369/.507 line with a .372 wOBA. His Isolated Power, which ranged from .290 to .349 during his 2003-2007 tear, checked in at .243.

One of the more interesting questions of the spring is to what extent Ortiz will bounce back: will a healed Papi resume posting the monstrous offensive levels we came to expect over his first 5 years in Boston, or has decline started to set in? Ortiz turned 33 in November, and possesses the kind of talent set that often garners the pejorative “old player’s skills” label. His wrist is said to be sound, but he is now dealing with a shoulder issue as well.

For 2009, CHONE projects Ortiz to basically split the difference between his 2003-2007 mashing and his “down” 2008 campaign, with a .284/.401/.555 line and a .413 wOBA. PECOTA is less sanguine, forecasting what amounts to a repeat ’08 performance with a .269/.375/.503 triple-slash line.

Ortiz’s most comparable players via Baseball-Reference are a mixed bag: number one comp Jason Giambi was still a productive hitter last season at 37, though he has thrown in a couple of down years (’04 and ’07) and has dealt with injuries. Carlos Delgado had many writing him off early last season, but he rebounded to turn in a 127 OPS+ in his age 36 season. Papi’s number three comp is more nefarious: Mo Vaughn, a former Sox slugger, whose career was essentially over by age 34. The list also includes Richie Sexson, whose bat shriveled up at 32. Not that these comparables offer some definitive insight into Ortiz’s future, but they are fun to consider.

The most prudent course of action for fantasy owners to take regarding David Ortiz would be to expect something closer to last year’s milder line than his leviathan .400 OBP/.600+ SLG peak seasons. Perhaps Ortiz will return to his 2003-2007 style beat down of AL hurlers. However, as a 33 year-old with some emerging health issues, Papi seems more likely to be good as opposed to the unstoppable force that teamed with Manny Ramirez to give pitchers nightmares.

What do you guys think? Will Big Papi make a triumphant return, or is Medium Papi here to stay?

As a cancer survivor, Jon Lester is a great human interest story and one of the easiest players to root for in the game. However, as hyperbolic as it might sound, the Red Sox lefty might just be underrated in fantasy circles heading into the 2009 season. Here are some reasons why the 25 year-old should be high on your draft list:

Improved Peripherals

In his first full season in the majors, Lester posted a solid 2.3 K/BB ratio and a 3.64 Fielding Independent ERA. Control had always been something of an issue for Jon as he climbed the minor league ladder (he walked about 3.8 batters per nine innings), and remained so during stints with Boston in 2006 (4.76 BB/9) and 2007 (4.43 BB/9). In ’08, however, he pared that walk rate down to 2.82 per nine innings.

His K rate (6.5 per nine) was essentially league average, but he did fool more batters as the year progressed. After posting 5.9 K/9 during the first half of the season, Lester struck out 7.4 per nine innings during the home stretch.

More Groundballs

After posting groundball rates of 40.6% in ’06 and 34.4% in ’07, Lester improved his percentage of worm burners to 47.5. The reason for the increase would appear to be an interesting hybrid sinker pitch that Lester picked up. Earlier this offseason, I examined Jon’s pitch F/X data and found the following:

“I found out that what we’re seeing on Lester’s chart is actually the combination of a four-seam and one-seam fastball. That’s right, one-seam. Lester throws an offshoot of a sinker, gripped in an unusual manner along just one seam of the baseball…Lester’s use of the one-seamer may also explain a pretty big uptick in his groundball percentage.”

If the uptick in grounders holds, Lester shouldn’t have many issues with the long ball.

Improved Velocity

If there’s one concern with Lester heading in to the 2009 season, it’s his rather dramatic increase in innings pitched. The 6-2, 190 pounder was one of the “Verducci Effect” candidates that we identified back in December, as he tossed 74 more frames in 2008 than he did the previous campaign. While velocity is just one sector of what goes into pitching, Lester did throw harder as the season progressed, suggesting that he was not tiring on his way to a career-high workload:

Lester’s fastball velocity by month:
April: 90.8 MPH
May: 91.5 MPH
June: 91.8 MPH
July: 92.4 MPH
Aug: 92.5 MPH
Sept: 93.7 MPH

There’s a lot to like in Jon Lester. Better strike zone control, a devastating cutter/curve combo, improved fastball velocity, a higher percentage of grounders induced..the list goes on. Don’t be surprised if this southpaw puts his hat in the ring of AL Cy Young contenders in 2009.