When it comes to transforming drifting pitchers into gold, Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan is considered to possess the Midas Touch. Tony La Russa’s right-hand man since the 80’s, Duncan is often credited with getting the most out of the talent at hand. One of the latest Duncan disciples is right-hander Todd Wellemeyer.

A powerfully built 6-3, 195 pounder, Wellemeyer was originally selected by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2000 amateur draft. He fooled more than his share of batters in the minors, punching out 9.6 per nine innings, but superfluous free passes often left observers frustrated (4 BB/9).

That lack of fine touch was only exacerbated during three trial-runs with Chicago between 2003 and 2005. Mostly a starter during his minor league tenure, Wellemeyer was placed in the ‘pen upon arriving in the big leagues. His low-90’s heat and occasionally-plus breaking ball induced swings and misses (9.8 K/9 in 84.1 IP), but Wellemeyer was not-so-happily a Three True Outcomes pitcher. He issued 6.5 BB/9 and put many a souvenir onto Waveland Avenue (1.4 HR/9).

And so began Wellemeyer’s nomadic existence. He was flipped to the Marlins prior to opening day in 2006, but he floundered as a fish. After 21.1 innings of getting filleted (5.5 BB/9, 5.48 ERA), Florida disposed of Wellemeyer, but the pitching-starved Royals reeled him in off waivers in June. He was superficially more impressive with KC (3.63 ERA in 57 frames), but an ugly 1-to-1 K/BB ratio (5.8 K’s and BB’s per nine) suggested that was more the product of happenstance than progress. Overall, Wellemeyer’s FIP for the year was 4.83, and that came with a lower-than-expected HR/FB rate of 7.1%.

Evidently the Royals concurred that little progress had been made, as Wellemeyer was let go after sordid beginning to the 2007 season (15.2 IP, 10.34 ERA, 9/11 K/BB). Still seeing some modicum of promise in the then-28 year-old’s 92 MPH heat and hard slider, the Cardinals claimed Wellemeyer of waivers in May. As a Red Bird, he split his time between relief and the rotation, compiling a 3.11 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and a still-elevated 4.1 BB/9 in 63.2 IP. Waiver-wire Wellemeyer wasn’t half-bad in his first action as a major league rotation member, holding opponents to a .702 OPS that far eclipsed his ‘pen work (.830 OPS against).

In ’08, the Cards slotted Wellemeyer into the starting five from the beginning. He made 32 starts for the club, posting a 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings of work. Does that overstate his case? Yeah, to some extent. Wellemeyer’s FIP was a less-shiny 4.51, as he whiffed 6.29 per nine while benefitting from a .273 BABIP. Still, he exhibited improved control (2.91 BB/9) and was essentially a league-average starter, compiling 1.7 Value Wins. Not bad for a guy whom the Royals dubbed too Proletariat to grace their roster a few springs ago (apparently, it’s okay to suck and start for the Royals so long as you’re a former Brave or have been knighted).

Going forward, it would be prudent to expect some regression in Wellemeyer’s line- he’s not bad by any means, but a sub-four ERA is probably pushing it. CHONE and ZiPS call for identical projections of a 4.57 FIP. That’s not flashy, but you could do far worse in deeper or NL-only leagues. It might have taken five years and four organizations, but Wellemeyer has seemingly found a home.

Imagine being hired at an entry level position for a company. Then, imagine becoming CEO of that company six months later.

Okay, so the ultra-aggressive promotions of ’07 and ’08 bonus babies Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry aren’t quite at that level of expedition, but it’s close. Desperate to infuse the major league club with any talent capable of avoiding a Charlie Brown-like fate on the mound (or a Kenny Rogers-type fate, for that matter), Detroit has called upon its most recently sowed farm products.

Porcello, 20, created quite the buzz during the summer of 2007. A 6-5, 195 pounder with an unusually deep mix of pitches, Porcello committed to North Carolina and was considered an awfully difficult sign. The lanky right-hander was often billed as the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, and his scouting reports were positively glowing:

“He’s long, lean, athletic and projectable with a clean delivery. His fastball sits at 93-95, touching 98. He holds his velocity deep into outings. He throws a tight curveball at 74-76 and a harder, sharp-breaking slider at 80-82. He shows feel for his changeup. He can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate, and mixes his pitches effectively.” (Baseball America’s 2007 draft coverage)

The luxury price tag and strong Tar Heel ties caused 26 teams to pass on Porcello, but the Tigers stepped up and took the best available talent, price tag be damned. Detroit eventually signed him to a $7 million major league contract, including a nearly $3.6 million bonus.

Porcello made his debut at High-A Lakeland in the Florida State League in 2008. As a teenager, he posted rates of 5.18 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9, with a 3.83 FIP in 125 innings pitched. In most cases, one might be justifiably skeptical of a highly-touted hurler who misses so few bats. However, Porcello exhibited control far beyond his years while showing extreme worm-killing tendencies (64.1 GB%).

In addition, Baseball America noted in its prospect handbook that the Tigers had Porcello on a pitch count, allowing no more than 75 tosses per game. Porcello can touch the mid-to-high-90’s with his four-seam fastball and was known to rip off some nasty sliders in high school (Detroit scrapped the pitch, at least for now). But, he focused on efficiency in ’08, with a low-90’s sinker, a 12-to-6 curve and a plus changeup as his weapons of choice. BA compared Porcello’s overall package to that of Roy Halladay, the dean of controlled, groundballing productivity.

While Porcello easily ranked as Detroit’s top prospect, fireballing right-hander Ryan Perry ranks second on most lists. Popped out of Arizona with the 21st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Perry’s claim to fame is a searing, 97-100 MPH fastball that gets on hitters in a flash. Teaming with fellow ’08 first-rounder Daniel Schlereth (Diamondbacks), Perry short-circuited radar guns and supplemented the heat with an occasionally deadly high-80’s slider. He made a brief cameo last summer between rookie ball and Lakeland, posting a 16/7 K/BB in 13.2 innings.

Perry’s command is not always ideal, which BA claims kept him from developing into a consistent starter at Arizona. However, as a ‘pen arm, he could quickly claim a prominent role with the Tigers. Detroit’s bullpen is essentially a wasteland of decent middle men, an excommunicated starter (Nate Robertson) and reclamation projects (Juan Rincon is still pitching?). Brandon Lyon is a serviceable arm, but he’s a late-inning reliever in name only. Joel Zumaya is baseball’s equivalent of a busted Lamborghini. Fernando Rodney’s level of arson is matched only by former teammate-turned-ridiculously-priced Royal Kyle Farnsworth. Suffice it to say, there’s opportunity here.

It’s nearly impossible to say how quickly Detroit’s top two prospects will acclimate themselves to the major league level. After all, Porcello was getting ready for the prom this time two years ago, and Perry has all of 14 frames of pro pitching to his name. Will sending Porcello and Perry’s development clocks into turbo-drive pay off? Stay tuned.

Detroit Tigers
Released DH Gary Sheffield.

Sheff cooked up some sour numbers in 2008, posting a mild .323 wOBA with a .225/.326/.400 line in 482 PA. His BABIP was a low .237, but the 40 year-old has been plagued by shoulder maladies and could be destined to join Fred McGriff in the “can someone pleeease sign me so I can get to 500 homers?” club. His inability to play the field limits his utility to potential employers. Sheffield may latch on somewhere else, but it’s been one heck of a career for the quick-wristed nomad. Sheff has a career .393 wOBA; he was highly productive everywhere he played, save for an unpleasant tenure in Milwaukee. Yet, he’s played for seven different teams, and could be on the verge of number eight. Abrasive? seemingly. Highly skilled? Undoubtedly.

Florida Marlins
Released 1B Dallas McPherson.

Following McPherson’s release, the Marlins lean further to the right than Fox News: bench bats Paulino, Helms, Andino and Carroll all bat from the right.

A Three True Outcomes hitter, McPherson was once a mammoth prospect with the Angels. Alas, back issues and serious qualms about contact ability have sufficiently road blocked his major league aspirations. A 6-4, 230 pound lefty, McPherson has a career .296/.380/.586 line in the minors. He was positively radioactive as an Isotope last season, batting .275/.379/.618 with 42 bombs. Don’t get too excited, though: he’s 28 and whiffed nearly 38% of the time with Albuquerque. His home park inflated runs by 18% over the 2006-2008 seasons, boosting tater production by 17 percent. As a result, Dallas’ Major League Equivalent line (MLE) was a far less tasty .201/.288/.410.

Houston Astros
Acquired INF Jeff Keppinger from the Reds in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

With Aaron Boone out of commission and Geoff Blum…being Geoff Blum, the ‘Stros wanted an extra infielder to help out on the left side of the infield. Keppinger essentially never whiffs (career 5.6 %), but that’s about the extent of his offensive virtues: he’s a career .287/.338/.390 hitter. The former Pirate, Met, Royal and Red will likely take on the responsibilities that were supposed to go to Boone, facing southpaws as part of a hot corner platoon with Blum. In 300 career major league PA versus lefties, Keppinger has managed a .351/.403/.515 line. I suppose it’s possible that Houston could shift Tejada to third and install Kep as short. However, both UZR (-19.3 runs/150 games) and Plus/Minus (-20 over the past 2 seasons) would kindly suggest that they don’t, thanks.

Yesterday, we put the twice-traded Ross Ohlendorf under the microscope, noting that his low-90’s heat and slider are likely best suited for the bullpen. Today, let’s look at Pittsburgh’s other prospect named McCutchen: Daniel McCutchen.

Like Ohlendorf, McCutchen is a 26 year-old college product. The Yankees selected the Oklahoma Sooner in the 13th round of the 2006 amateur draft. That the 6-2, 195 pounder actually signed on the dotted line was something of a miracle: he was drafted three other times before he became a member of the Bronx Bombers.

Baseball America’s 2006 draft coverage noted that “scouts are becoming a bit jaded about righthander Daniel McCutchen, who turned down the Yankees as a 47th-round pick out of Grayson County (Texas) Community College in 2003, the Devil Rays as a 29th-rounder in 2004 and the Cardinals as a 12th-rounder in 2005.” Talk about playing hard-to-get.

McCutchen’s debut was further stalled by a 50-game suspension for a positive drug test from a prescription taken for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder while attending Oklahoma. He threw 29 innings in 2007, mostly in the South Atlantic League, with a 29/6 K/BB ratio. The righty just snuck on to BA’s top 30 list for the Yankees, placing 30th.

Finally donning a professional uni over a full season in 2007, McCutchen showed polish, if not power at High-A Tampa. In 101 innings pitched, he turned in a 3.52 FIP, with about 6 K’s per nine and 1.9 BB/9. Promoted to AA Trenton during the later portion of the year, he lowered his FIP to 3.03 in 41 frames of work. McCutchen Mcwhiffed 7.9 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.63 BB/9. BA took note of his stellar pitching, bumping McCutchen up to 14th on the Yankees’ prospect list.

BA noted that he could reach the low-90’s with his four-seam fastball, sat 89-91 with the two-seamer and backed the heaters up with a plus overhand curve and a decent changeup. However, they also said that “some in the organization want to channel his aggressiveness into the bullpen, believing his stuff will play up as was the case with Ross Ohlendorf.”

McCutchen trekked back to Trenton to kick off 2008, where he posted rates of 8.83 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 with a 3.29 FIP in 53 innings. Sent to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after easing through the Eastern League, he displayed impressive strikeout and walk ratios (7.42 K/9, 1.41 BB/9), but McCutchen was often bombed as a Red Baron, surrendering 1.28 homers per nine innings with a 3.91 FIP.

Sent to Pittsburgh as part of the swag for Nady and Marte, McCutchen was assigned to AAA Indianapolis for the remainder of the year. His K’s and walks were nearly identical with his new organization (7.69 K/9, 1.31 BB/9 in 48 IP). However, his gopher ball issue grew far worse, with an astounding 12 big-flys leaving the yard (2.25 HR/9) to bloat his FIP to 5.30.

As a strike-tosser with decent velocity and a good curve, Daniel McCutchen has his virtues. Still, the homer-happy tendencies and flyball orientation (career 41.6 GB% in the minors) give one pause. Most major league equivalents and 2009 projections feel that McCutchen will post an adequate K/BB ratio, but that he’ll also dish out dingers as if they were going out of style:

Minor League Splits 2008 MLE: 166 IP, 5.82 FIP, 6.41 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 2.06 HR/9
CHONE 2009 Projection: 120 IP, 4.88 FIP 6.6 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9
Zips ’09 Projection: 114.2 IP, 5.41 FIP, 5.42 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9

Given the current state of affairs in Pittsburgh’s rotation, simply having most appendages and converting oxygen into CO2 gives you a puncher’s chance at seeing time in the Bucs’ starting five. McCutchen will likely get a shot sometime this summer. It’s possible that he becomes a Paul Byrd-type pitcher, able to paint the corners enough to post league-average production and overcome a tendency to cough up a few too many homers.

For an organization that has made a concerted effort to develop young pitching talent, the Pittsburgh Pirates have little to show for it. Barring a miracle rivaling the whole…turning water into wine deal, the Bucs will break the most ignoble record in baseball this year, passing the 1933-1948 Phillies for the most consecutive losing seasons in history.

The path to 17 years of futility necessarily entails a confluence of poor decisions, but an alarming number of high-round pitching prospects have flamed out spectacularly. We know that pitchers are in general a more volatile lot than hitters, but this list is very telling.

Paul Maholm stands happily as an exception to the rule, but Kris Benson, Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington have more scars than major league victories.

The major league staff offers little comfort either. Maholm is a solid mid-rotation starter, but Ian Snell and especially Tom Gorzelanny regressed in 2008. Zach Duke is a pitch-to-contact lefty on a team with serious issues converting balls put in play into outs.

Noting a severe lack of depth, GM Neal Huntington acquired three-fifths of the New York Yankees’ AAA rotation last July in the Nady/Marte swap: Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen. Let’s meet the trio, starting with Ohlendorf.

For a 2004 fourth-round pick with 69 big league frames to his name, Ohlendorf has certainly had an eventful career. Originally popped out of Princeton by the Diamondbacks, the big right-hander was shipped to the Yankees as part of the Randy Johnson barter in January of 2007 and was again on the move at least year’s trade dealine.

The strapping 6-4, 235 pounder looks like a power pitcher, and he can indeed dial up his fastball to the 93-94 MPH range when needed, while supplementing the gas with a low-80’s slider. While the stuff suggests potential dominance, Ohlendorf’s K rate in the minors (7.4 per nine innings) is more sturdy than flashy. Combine that with above-average control (2.3 BB/9), however, and Ohlendorf starts to look pretty interesting.

While fairing quite well at the upper levels of the minors (including a 117/37 K/BB in 140.1 IP at AAA), Ohlendorf has posted a 5.01 FIP in the big leagues. He has missed some bats (7.57 K/9), but has also been a bit too liberal with the base on balls (4.3 BB/9) and homers (1.43 per nine).

The 26 year-old is currently locked in to the fourth slot in an adrift Pittsburgh rotation, but it remains to be seen whether or not Ohlendorf might project better as a two-pitch hurler out of the ‘pen (a role he experimented with at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in ’07 and with the Bombers last season). He rarely utilizes his low-80’s changeup (thrown 6.5% in the majors), which might explain why southpaw hitters have gone all Chipper Jones against him in an admittedly small sample: .359/.428/.608 in 173 PA.

Of course, having two offerings of note gives the Ivy Leaguer two more weapons than some among a collection of C/C+ prospects and waiver-wire flotsam tossing their respective hats into the starting picture.

In terms of 2009 projections, PECOTA is none too impressed (5.01 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 110 IP, with the majority of those innings coming in relief). CHONE is bullish on Ohlendorf the reliever, with a 3.65 FIP, 8.02 K/9 and 2.95 BB/9 in 64 innings out of the ‘pen. Bill James has Ohlendorf making 13 starts while doing his best Yoslan Herrera (who?) impersonation (5.66 ERA), though his FIP is a less-grisly 4.47. Zips also has Ross with an ERA (5.60) far surpassing his FIP (4.42) while splitting his time between the rotation and relief work.

The reason? Pittsburgh again projects to be among the worst defensive squads in the majors. Pirate leather took on plenty of water in ’08, ranking 28th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, and nearly the same cast of statuesque characters returns this spring. A guy with ordinary whiff rates like Ohlendorf is going to be subject to the quality of his fielders, an unpleasant thought given the personnel on hand. James projects a .355 BABIP for Ohlendorf, while Zips comes in at .344.

The Pirates will understandably give Ohlendorf the opportunity to prove one way or another which role he should fill at the major league level. This is, after all, a club that gave 5 starts in 2008 to the guy with the highest ERA in major league history.

Until the Rinku and Dinesh era commences, the Bucs will try to find some useful low-cost arms at the back of the rotation and hope that a likely reliever like Ohlendorf can find something that dips or fades against southpaws. In this organization, Million Dollar Arms are in short supply.

Seattle Mariners’ right-hander Brandon Morrow has endured a rather bizarre professional career to this point. A high-octane starter at Cal, Morrow was selected 5th overall by the M’s in the 2006 amateur draft. Baseball America dubbed him “owner of perhaps the best pure arm in the draft”, noting his ability to sit in the mid-90’s with his heat while supplementing it with a sharp mid-80’s slider and a work-in-progress changeup.

In most organizations, such a talent would have been sent to A-Ball in order to develop those secondary offerings and gradually build the arm strength and stamina necessary to become a complete starting pitcher. However, with the always inscrutable Bill Bavasi running the show, Morrow scarcely saw the minors at all. Rather, he was pigeonholed in the major league bullpen to begin the 2007 season.

The move was about as enlightened as giving the Mariner Moose an on-field ATV. The 22 year-old did what you would expect a green-as-grass rookie to do when shoved to the bigs: he pumped 95 MPH fastball after fastball (thrown 80% of the time), while displaying control that only Bob Uecker could spin-doctor. In 63.1 frames, Morrow managed to whiff 9.38 batters per nine on the basis of his immense raw talent, but he handed out free passes like Aquafina, with 7.11 BB/9.

The 6-3, 180 pounder was again relegated to relief work to begin the 2008 campaign. In 36.2 frames out of the ‘pen, Morrow singed opposing batters with 47 K’s (11.5 per nine), with modest improvement in the walk department (15, or 3.7 BB/9). Just over two years after expending such a high draft pick on Morrow and then devaluing their asset by rushing him, the M’s decided to transition the former Golden Bear ace to the rotation in early August. Morrow was sent to AAA Tacoma to get stretched out, where he punched out 10.03 batters per nine with 4.24 BB/9.

Recalled in early September, Morrow made five starts for Seattle down the stretch. The results were uneven, but occasionally dazzling. He gave up six earned runs versus offensive weaklings Oakland and Kansas City, but also turned in an absolute gem versus the Yankees on September 5th (7.2 IP, 1 H, 1R, 3BB, 8K) in which he showcased a devastating arsenal. Overall, Morrow the starter struck out a batter per inning (28 K in 28 IP), while showing characteristic control hiccups (19 BB).

The Mariners (now mercifully under the care of player development guru Jack Zduriencik) seemed intent on making Morrow a permanent member of the rotation in 2009, but circumstances have changed. After dealing with forearm tightness earlier this spring, Morrow has claimed to be more comfortable in the ‘pen, and the M’s will apparently acquiesce.

Whether this is a good thing for the long-term prospects of the franchise is certainly debatable: even the most talented, highly-leveraged relievers don’t produce the same level of value as a starter does (a large quantity of good innings trumps a small quantity of great frames). However, between Morrow’s forearm issues, diabetic condition and comfort in the bullpen, perhaps the choice was not so straightforward.

Morrow obviously becomes the top man in a bullpen that figures to be a consortium of trade acquisitions, waiver claims and home-grown hopefuls. His wicked fastball/slider combo should sufficiently eviscerate right-handers, and the development of a reliable third offering (he threw a splitter/changeup about 10% of the time in ’08) becomes less of an issue while only having to deal with lefties one time through the order. Morrow still has some kinks to work out in terms of catching the plate on a more regular basis, but he comes equipped with the tools to shipwreck opposing batters in the late innings.

As far as rookie seasons go, Ronny Paulino couldn’t have asked for much more back in 2006. The then-Pirate catcher batted .310/.360/.394 in 481 PA. He posted 2.6 Value Wins as a 25 year-old, and with fellow youngster Ryan Doumit seemingly always afflicted with one malady or another, his future job security looked solid in the Steel City.

Paulino’s line was batting average-fueled (.367 BABIP), but he had gradually shown more thump as he climbed the minor league ladder to the ‘Burgh. He slugged in the high-.400’s between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis over the 2004 and 2005 seasons, and at 6-2, 240, some hoped that the big-bodied backstop would learn to put more of a charge into the ball (fun fact: Paulino is the third-heaviest player to have 50% or more of his defensive innings come at catcher, per Baseball-Reference; Carlos Maldonado is first and Shanty Hogan is second).

Instead of building upon his initial success, Paulino turned in a very mild sophomore campaign in ’07. The bottom fell out of his batting average spike, and his wOBA declined from .330 to .309. Little changed in his plate discipline (he walked about 7% and whiffed near 17% in both seasons), but his BABIP fell to .297, and with it, his average (.263). He displayed a little more pop, but we’re speaking in very relative terms: his ISO increased from .084 to .127.

2008 saw Paulino fall completely out of favor with the Bucco organization. His commitment and conditioning were questioned, and he posted a wretched .260 wOBA in 130 PA. As Doumit was establishing himself as the long-term answer behind the dish (health permitting), Paulino was unceremoniously whisked away to AAA Indianapolis, where he at least took out his anger on International League hurlers (.306/.373/.550 in 126 PA) after recovering from a sprained right ankle.

Feeling that Paulino was no longer worth the trouble and a 40-man roster spot, the Pirates shipped the 27 year-old to the Phillies this past offseason in exchange for another tepid-hitting catcher, Jason Jaramillo. Paulino didn’t stay Philly property for long, however, as he was recently sent on his way to San Francisco (for Jack Taschner) only to be flipped to the catching-starved Marlins for pitching prospect Hector Correa.

Paulino will have a greater opportunity to soak up some playing time (and some sun) with the Marlins, who were planning on marching forward with John Baker. Baker possesses a dose of on-base ability and didn’t embarrass himself in limited play last season, but a platoon certainly suggests itself: Baker is a career .277/.350/.433 minor league hitter versus right-handers, with a patient-but-punchless .263/.356/.333 line versus southpaws.

Conversely, Paulino has licked lefties in the majors (.355/.417/.498) while floundering against righties (.252/.301/.343). The Dominican Republic native takes some truly painful AB’s versus northpaws: he’s easily baited into chasing the slider off the dish, which only compounds the plate coverage issues caused by his very open batting stance. According to his ESPN player page, Paulino hit .128 versus pitches thrown down and away last year.

With only Baker in his way and Florida’s prized catching prospect (Kyle Skipworth) in the nascent stages of his pro career, Ronny Paulino has the opportunity to re-establish himself as a guy capable of donning the tools of ignorance on a daily basis. However, he’s going to have to stop looking like a fish out of water versus right-handers if he wishes to become more than the lefty-bashing side of a platoon.

Cincinnati Reds right-hander/quasi clean-up hitter Micah Owings would like to be recognized more for his accomplishments on the hill than for his abnormal slugging exploits in the batter’s box. On that front, Tulane’s former two-way threat has some work to do. In fact, Owings’ career OPS+ of 126 (based off a Vladimir Guerrero-like .319/.355/.552 in 126 PA) eclipses his career ERA+ (94) by a considerable margin. Can Owings make his mark on the mound, or is he destined to be viewed as a Brooks Kieschnick reincarnate?

By the time Owings signed on the dotted line with the Arizona Diamondbacks following his third-round selection in the 2005 draft, he was intimately familiar with the process. A highly-touted prep prospect from Georgia, Micah was plucked by the Colorado Rockies in the second round back in 2002, but declined to sign and instead attended Georgia Tech. Owings was again available as a draft-eligible sophomore (the Cubs came calling in round 19), but the club couldn’t meet his demands: with eligibility remaining, Owings had leverage. He transferred to Tulane for his junior season, where he led the Green Wave in dingers and pitching whiffs.

Much like the ill-fated John Van Benschoten four years before him, Owings’ future (pitcher? first baseman?) was subject to scouting debate. As Baseball America noted in its draft coverage, the consensus pictured the 6-5, 225 pounder as a strike-tossing reliever instead of a bomb-hitting position player:

“Clubs continue to prefer him as a pitcher. His aggressive approach plays better on the mound than at the plate, where he’s prone to strikeouts and causes scouts to question how he’d fare against better pitching… He goes right after hitters on the mound with an 89-91 mph fastball that tops out at 95 and a changeup that can be a plus pitch at times…Owings throws a below-average slider and may have to scrap it for a cutter. He doesn’t have a dominant out pitch and projects more as a set-up man with a bulldog attitude.”

Because of his polish, Owings made a brief pit stop in the High-A California League as a reliever to begin his career (30/4 K/BB in 22 innings). BA noted that while in the ‘pen, Owings’ velocity soared to the 94-97 MPH range. However, the D-Backs were intent on keeping him in the rotation, concluding that a league-average or better starter is more scarce than a quality reliever.

Owings made his full-season debut at AA Tennessee in 2006. In 74.1 frames for the Smokies, he smoked 69 batters (8.35 K/9) while playing to his reputation by painting the corners (2.06 BB/9). Owings’ FIP was an impressive 2.97.

He ascended to AAA Tucson during the second half of the year, where he compiled a fair 3.74 FIP. His ratios fell off (6.26 K/9, 3.49 BB/9 in 87.2 IP), but it’s hard to complain when your third-rounder from the previous year is on the cusp of the major leagues.

That work in ’06 is practically all we have on Owings in the minors. In Arizona’s rotation from the get-go in 2007, Owings posted a 4.30 ERA in 152.2 innings. His FIP (4.81) was less impressive: he struck out 6.25 per nine and kept his walks at an adequate level (2.95 BB/9), but the flyball-centric hurler was burned by the gopher ball (1.18 HR/9) and benefitted somewhat from a .280 BABIP. Owings’ 90 MPH fastball and 83 MPH slider held same-side batters quiet (.238/.311/.375), but a lefties didn’t blink when he pulled the string on an inconsistent changeup, and they managed a healthy .267/.340/.497 line.

Owings got off to a good start in 2008, posting a 28/9 K/BB and a .195/.276/.363 opponent line in April. However, things would quickly go south from there. He was adequate in May (33/11 K/BB, .265/.319/.424), but hitters turned into Nick Johnson against Owings in June, with a .337/.400/.480 line. He would scarcely pitch again after that point, making two starts and four relief appearances in July with grisly results (11.37 ERA). He was optioned to the minors in late July, only to be shipped to Cincy as a PTBNL in the Adam Dunn proceedings (his acquisition was likely delayed due to concern over the state of his shoulder).

Ironically, Owings made his Reds debut against Arizona in mid-September, as a pinch hitter. He smacked an RBI double in the 10th to best the D-Backs 3-2 (ah, sweet revenge). So much for being remembered as a pitcher.

Overall, Owings’ work in ’08 wasn’t too terribly different from his rookie showing. His ERA was over a run and a half higher, but his FIP was actually slightly lower than ’07, with a 4.73 mark. He both whiffed and walked more batters, with 7.48 K/9 and 3.53 BB/9. Homers continued to be a bugaboo, with 1.2 per nine surrendered.

Apparently healthy, Owings has turned in a solid performance this spring. While the relative importance of that performance can be debated, it does matter in the sense that it factors heavily into Dusty Baker’s choice for Cincinnati’s fifth starter. The Owings that we have seen thus fair is essentially a good fifth starter with an interesting novelty act at the plate. Such a level may be all he ever ascends to, but that still entails more fame than is bestowed upon your average final cog in the rotation.

The Oakland Athletics’ rotation is in between phases. The vaunted “Big Three” of Hudson, Zito and Mulder has long since become a relic of the past, and the latest touted trio of Haren, Harden and Blanton was converted into copious amounts of young, cost-controlled talent. A new wave of high-ceiling arms, led by the one-two punch of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, will soon dominate the headlines.

Until then, the A’s will hope to receive yeoman’s work from second-tier hurlers such as Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez. There’s another name penciled into the rotation who could provide quality work despite a lack of press clippings: Dallas Braden.

The southpaw stayed on the draft board until the 24th round back in 2004, considered nothing more than an organizational filler. Scouts questioned how his wacky repertoire would play in pro ball- Braden was known for a screwball-like pitch that gave hitters fits, but the offering was supported only by high-80’s heat, a flat slider and an average changeup.

Undeterred by a lack of scouting love, Braden tore up less advanced batters between Vancouver (Northwest League) and Kane County (A-Ball) in 2004. In 42 IP, he posted a 63/9 K/BB ratio while surrendering 37 hits. That small sample was not enough to change opinions, though, as Braden went into the 2005 season outside of Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects.

Braden received more of a challenge in ’05, as he was deployed to the High-A California League (where pitching prospects go to die). He continued to whiff opposing hitters like some Randy Johnson doppelganger, with 64 K’s in and 11 walks in 43.2 frames (2.68 ERA). Bumped to the Texas League for the second half, the screwballer did not dominate, but held his own with a 3.90 ERA in 97 frames. Braden posted rates of 6.6 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9.

The Texas Tech alum put his name on the prospect map, coming in at number 19 in BA’s Oakland rankings. Said BA: “he gets hitters out with guile, command and a trick pitch.” Things weren’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as Braden was shut down in August with a tired arm.

That “tired arm” would turn out to be more nefarious, as Braden went under the knife for shoulder surgery during the offseason. After making so much progress and fighting his perceived limitations in ’05, the lefty suffered what was essentially a lost season. He tossed only 37 innings between rookie ball, High-A and Double-A, posting a 55/8 K/BB ratio. Already something of a red-headed stepchild in the scouting community, Braden fell off of the prospect radar yet again.

Beginning the ’07 campaign back at AA Midland, Braden quickly earned a promotion to Sacramento after posting a 13/3 K/BB ratio in 12 IP to start the year. With the River Cats (a dynastic AAA affiliate, if such an entity exists), Braden fooled 10.41 batters per nine innings with 2.53 BB/9. His FIP was a sparkling 2.64 in 64 frames.

The 6-1, 195 pounder also saw time with the A’s, at times filling in for the vastly talented but notoriously brittle Rich Harden in the rotation. Braden’s ERA (6.72) in 20 appearances (14 starts) made him look like the AL’s answer to John Van Benschoten, but the underlying results weren’t that bad. He posted a 4.50 FIP in 72.1 IP with 6.84 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9, but Braden was felled by a .355 BABIP and a 56.4% strand rate.

Back with Sacramento in 2008, Braden turned in ace-like numbers despite a “soft, softer, softest” arsenal of pitches. With 9.11 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9, he compiled a 3.50 FIP in 53.1 IP (HR were a slight problem, with 1.18 per nine). Braden was called up to Oakland on several occasions, making 19 appearances (10 starts) in total. Featuring 88 MPH cheese, a 78 MPH slider, a mid-70’s change and perhaps an occasional screwball, Braden managed a 4.57 FIP in 71.2 innings (5.15 K/9, 3.14 BB/9).

As a soft-tosser with flyball tendencies (career 37.7 GB%), Braden has little star potential. However, he’s in the right venue for a hurler who puts the ball in the air frequently (The Coliseum has depressed HR production by 13% over the past three years, according to the Bill James Handbook) and he’ll be in the rotation from the outset in 2009. CHONE forecasts a 4.24 FIP for Braden, with 6.79 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Most A’s fans and prospect mavens are anxiously awaiting the debuts of Cahill and Anderson, and deservedly so. But this former Red Raider is worth a look as he holds down the fort in the meantime.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s examine Colorado’s probable left fielder, Smith.

Smith came to the University of Mississippi as a well-regarded quarterback prospect. However, he got stuck behind some fellow named Eli Manning and never took a snap for the Rebels. While Smith’s gridiron dreams were grounded, he excelled on the diamond and was selected by the Rockies in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft.

While Spilborghs struggled initially in the minors, Smith made a mockery of rookie ball (as he should have given his experience) with an OPS in excess of 1.000. Sent to a more age-appropriate level to begin the ’05 season, Smith held his own in the Cal League with a .300/.353/.458 line. Baseball America was just mildly impressed (ranking Smith 15 in the Rockies system), as college players showing doubles power in a hitter’s paradise don’t typically elicit rave reviews.

Promoted to AA Tulsa in ’06, Smith stepped up his game a bit with a .294/.361/.483 showing, displaying more power (.189 ISO) and making plenty of contact (14.1 K%). BA again rated Smith toward the middle of Colorado’s top 30 farm products, ranking him 16th while noting that AAA Colorado Springs would serve as “the perfect venue to turn some of his doubles into home runs.”

Deployed to AAA to begin the 2007 campaign, Smith smacked 17 taters while batting .317/.381/.528. He topped the .200 ISO mark (.211), no doubt aided by the nine percent increase in runs and doubles produced by Colorado Springs. 2008 brought more of the same at the level in the power department (.202 ISO), but Smith more than doubled his walk rate, from 8% in 2007 to 15.6% in ’08. Summoned to the big leagues in late May, the 6-3, 215 pounder produced a .349 wOBA in 123 PA (.259/.350/.435), again drawing his fair share of free passes (12.2%).

Smith appears to be the front-runner to replace Holliday in left field, though it’s possible that he ends up in more of a platoon situation. The 26 year-old has devoured right-handed pitching to the tune of .318/.381/.532 in the minors, but port siders have limited him to some walks and singles (.276/.360/.385). Matt Murton, acquired in the Holliday deal, could become Smith’s caddy. Chicago’s erstwhile redheaded step child has a career .311/.382/.484 line versus southpaws.

For 2009, CHONE projects a .362 wOBA for Smith, with a .288/.361/.461 line. PECOTA spat out a .273/.347/.450 prognostication for the former Rebel. Like Spilborghs, Smith is a decent hitter who has two very important things going for him: opportunity and the chance to take his hacks in the hitting mecca that is Coors. There’s some risk that he ends up as only the long half of a platoon, but Smith could give you pretty good output while probably not even requiring a draft pick.