Stock Down

Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks

What was initially called a minor shoulder ailment has morphed into something more nefarious, as Webb will miss a minimum of six more weeks. Owners who invested in the terrifically durable D-Backs co-ace (Webb easily surpassed the 200 IP mark every year since 2004, and tossed 229 or more frames from 2005-2008) have to be sorely disappointed. With Arizona collectively hitting about as well as colony of Neifi Perez clones (the club’s wOBA is a sickly .299, 28th in the bigs), the Diamondbacks desperately need a healthy and productive Webb to avoid being left in the dust by the Dodgers.

Edinson Volquez, Reds

The light has yet to go on fully for Edinson. He was very productive in 2008 (posting a 3.60 FIP in 196 innings), but his typically turbulent control has been downright awful so far: 20 free passes in 20.1 frames. Just 39.5% of his pitches have crossed the plate, which is the lowest rate among all starters and is nearly 10 percent below the major league average.

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Kendrick is known to swing at anything within the general vicinity of California, and his level of hackery has few peers: only the walk-less Yuniesky Betancourt and Bengie Molina can lay claim to fewer free passes than Kendrick’s one. There’s nothing especially earth-shattering about Kendrick’s lack of restraint, but the hits haven’t been falling in the early going: the 25 year-old has a .258 average, the product of a .300 BABIP and a slightly elevated K rate (21.2%). The result is a nasty .290 OBP and a mediocre .314 wOBA. This is what happens when a batting average-dependent player has one less hit fall in per week; it happens.

Ivan Rodriguez, Astros

Pudge has been pummeled at the plate thus far, with a macabre .267 wOBA that might have some Astros fans bemoaning the departure of Brad Ausmus (no, not really). Opposing pitchers have thrown Rodriguez slider after slider in 2009: after getting a slide piece 18.4% of the time in 2008, I-Rod has seen that rate increase to an eye-popping 39.9% (the highest rate in the majors by a wide margin: Cody Ross is second at 30.7%). As an impatient backstop pounding the ball into the ground (2.08 groundball-to-flyball ratio), Rodriguez’s distinguished career has reached its nadir in Houston. Recently recalled J.R. Towles could begin to eat away at Pudge’s playing time.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

In a shocking development, Bradley has been frequently injured. The switch-hitting force has taken just 31 foul plate appearances for the Cubs (.252 wOBA), continuing a career-long pattern of mashing followed by M*A*S*Hing in the trainer’s room. Bradley and Rich Harden must be, like, best friends.

Stock Up

Josh Johnson, Marlins

Clearly mended from Tommy John surgery, Johnson has come out breathing fire and making professional hitters look like confused little leaguers. The 6-7 righty has a 29/5 K/BB ratio in 28.2 innings, good for a 2.24 FIP that ranks 7th in the big leagues. What’s more frightening: the spike in velocity (Johnson is throwing his heater harder than ever, at 94.7 MPH), the improved control (55.9% of his pitches have been in the strike zone, well above the 49% MLB average) or the newfound groundball tendencies (60 GB%, compared to a 47.2% career average)?

Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Billinglsey has always eviscerated right-handed hitters (career .633 OPS against), but southpaws have typically been his bugaboo (.764 OPS against). In ’09, however, the Dodgers ace has held lefties to a .615 OPS thus far. Over time, Billingsley has decreased his fastball usage (down from the mid-60% range in 2006-2007 to 53.6% in 2009). In its place, he’s become more reliant upon a hard upper-80’s cutter. The cutter usage has increased each year of his career (from 6.8% in ’06 all the way up to 20.8% in ’09), and his Outside Swing% has gone north as well: from 21.9% during that rookie season to 32% this year.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

This is the sort of player the Cubs thought they had acquired. Fukudome (32 yesterday) has been an on-base fiend this season, with a 17.3 BB% and power to boot (.290 ISO). He won’t keep on hitting like a Barry Bonds clone, but the combo of outstanding plate discipline (his outside swing% is just 11.9%, compared to the 24.3% MLB average) and doubles is worth a roster spot in most leagues.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

Markakis’ name might not be mentioned in the discussion of the top players in the game, but he should be. The 25 year-old’s wOBA has increased every year of his big league career: .346 in 2006, .366 in 2007 and .389 in 2008. In 2009, he holds a gaudy .460 mark in 87 PA.

Javier Vazquez, Braves

Vazquez has taken the NL by storm, posting a sparkling 1.77 FIP in 24 IP. He has punched out a ridiculous 34 batters, while issuing 7 walks. In the early going, Javier has decreased the deployment of his low-80’s slider (from 22.8% in 2008 to 14.5% in ’09) in favor of more low-70’s curves and low-80’s changeups. Also of note: his groundball percentage is 47.4% this season, compared to a 39.2% career average. Keeping the ball on the ground more often would be a welcome development for a very good pitcher with an unfortunate proclivity for handing out souvenirs (career 1.18 HR/9).

Now that we have several appearances worth of information to examine, this seems like a good time to take a brief look at some of the high-profile rookie pitchers in the majors this spring. How are Anderson, Porcello, Cahill et. al faring so far? Let’s start finding out, beginning with Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry of the Tigers.

Rick Porcello

Porcello, a 2007 bonus baby we chronicled earlier this spring, jumped straight from the High-A Florida State League to the majors. Thus far, the 20 year-old has shown flashes of the worm-burning, efficient style that earns him some optimistic Roy Halladay comparisons. In 18 innings, Porcello has struck out 11 batters while issuing 3 walks, posting a 52.5 GB%.

His Pitch F/X data backs up the scouting reports perfectly: Porcello throws a heavy, sinking heater with an abundance of tailing action in on righties (his “fastball” has 9.6 inches of tail with just 5.3 inches of vertical movement, and his “two seamer” bores in on the hands with 11.2 inches of inward break and just 3.9 inches of vertical movement). His curveball has shown a little more depth than most (6.3 inches of dropping action, compared to the 5.5 major league average), and the changeup mirrors the fastball in terms of horizontal movement (10.7 inches of tail) while actually coming in higher than either the regular fastball or two-seamer (6.7 inches of vertical movement).

Unfortunately, Porcello has struggled with the long ball, surrendering 5 taters already (2.5 HR/9). Given the groundball tendencies and the wacky HR/FB rate (27.8%), that figure will trend down significantly in the coming months.

Ryan Perry

Perry, a 2008 first-rounder out of Arizona, is basically Porcello’s polar opposite on the mound. While Porcello relies on sink and movement on his cheese, Perry rears back and fires mid-90’s gas that’s straight as an arrow. Perry’s hopping four-seam fastball (thrown in excess of 80% of his total pitches) has just 4.2 inches of tail, while averaging 95.7 MPH. Supplementing his cheddar with a mid-80’s slider, the 22 year-old essentially dares opposing batters to display quick enough reflexes to make solid contact.

Perry has surrendered one run in 5.1 frames, whiffing five while issuing four free passes. Not that you can put a whole lot of stock in seven early-season appearances, but the former Wildcat has experienced his share of difficulty in keeping the ball over the plate. His 31.8 first-pitch strike percentage is last among relievers, and just 44.9% of his pitches have been in the strike zone (49% average). Consequently, hitters are content to keep the bat on the shoulder against the wild rookie, taking a cut at just 38.2% of Perry’s offerings (44.5% average).

Blue Jays lefty B.J. Ryan has gotten his 2009 season off to just about the worst start imaginable. The 33 year-old is doing a pretty good Kyle Farnsworth imitation, with 5 walks, 2 homers and seven runs surrendered in 5.2 innings pitched. Once a power pitcher, Ryan is having trouble cracking 88 MPH with his heater, and his mid-80’s slider has devolved into a low-80’s frisbee.

Not-so-coincidentally, word now comes that Ryan will hit the DL with tightness in his upper back and shoulder (this after Ryan’s elbow went snap, crackle, and pop during the 2007 season).

While Ryan is a well-coffered closer (having inked a 5-year, $47 million pact prior to the 2006 season), his replacement (fellow southpaw Scott Downs) comes with considerably less fanfare.

By the time most players enter their late twenties/early thirties, they are in the latter portion of their peak seasons or have already experienced their career climax. In Downs’ case, his peak to that point had been akin to that of a Kiddy Coaster. At 29, Downs was a vagabond who had been drafted by the Cubs in 1997, traded to the Twins in ’98, pinballed back to Chicago in ’99, only to be dumped in Montreal in 2000 for Rondell White. Cut loose by the now-Nationals in 2004, Downs was a thoroughly forgettable starter with a career 5.30 ERA.

Scooped up by the Blue Jays prior to the 2005 campaign, Downs split his time evenly between the rotation and the ‘pen (26 games, 13 starts) with a 4.33 FIP and a healthy number of grounders (52.6 GB%). His ’06 season (spent almost fully in relief) was a near carbon copy, again with a 4.33 FIP, 7.13 K/9, 3.51 BB/9 and even more carpet-burners (55.6 GB%).

Since then, Downs has taken the groundball act to extremes, cutting his home run rate significantly:

2007: 58 IP, 8.84 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 0.47 HR/9, 59.9 GB%, 3.24 FIP
2008: 70.2 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9 65.6 GB%, 3.39 FIP

Utilizing a bowling ball high-80’s sinker that features an incredible amount of tailing action (his fastball moves in on the hands of lefties by over 10 inches; the average for a southpaw is about 6.5 inches) and supplementing the heavy heater with a sweeping mid-70’s curve, Downs has continued the ground assault in 2009. In 9.2 innings, he has punched out 14 batters, while walking none, surrendering 1 run and generating grounders at a 73.7% clip.

Downs doesn’t have the sharpest control, but the second act of his career as a groundballing lefty with enough stuff to fool big league hitters has been fun to watch. The 33 year-old is about to go on the loop-de-loop ride that is major league closerdom. If you can snag Downs, you might want to grab a seat as well.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies: Eric Gagne (wherever he’s rehabbing these days) can breathe a sigh of relief, as Lidge didn’t last near long enough to challenge the goggled wonder’s record of 84 consecutive saves. Regression to the mean is a fickle mistress, and Lidge has already given up 3 taters on the young season (2 all of last year). No pitcher can sustain a 3.9 HR/FB ratio for very long, as “Lights Out” did last season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: K Rod has found his new digs to his liking, striking out nine batters in 5.2 IP. 3 for-3 in save ops without allowing a run, Rodriguez has also seen his fastball velocity (subject of much debate this offseason) bounce back up to 92.8 MPH (91.9 MPH in ’08).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Broxton has punched out 11 hitters in 6.2 frames, without walking a batter. He’s four-for-four in save chances, and opponents are making contact against him just 65.1% of the time (80.4% major league average). His approach hasn’t been groundbreaking: Broxton has reared back and fired a searing 97.6 MPH heater on nearly 90% of his pitches. It’s just that no one can hit the darned thing.

Matt Capps, Pirates: The Mad Capper is 5-for-5 in save ops thus far, showcasing his typically stellar control. He has yet to issue a free pass, and has thrown a first-pitch strike 75% of the time.

Heath Bell, Padres: The leader in the closer clubhouse with 0.90 WPA, Bell has converted 7 saves for the Padres in the early going.

In Control

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins: After suffering a shoulder injury during the spring, Lindstrom hasn’t quite been his usual self, throwing his fastball 95 MPH instead of 97 while cutting his slider usage in half. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Lindstrom’s heater has the same amount of horizontal movement (or lack thereof), tailing in 3.1 inches to righthanded batters (3.2 in 2008; the average for a righty is about 6 inches), while he has slightly less vertical movement as well (8.1 inches, compared to 8.8 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds: Cordero has racked up 6 saves already, punching out 6 batters while doing his usual tight rope act (4 walks).

Jose Valverde, Astros: Valverde has a bruised ankle and a tight calf after Orlando Hudson hit one back up the middle that smacked the bespectacled, emotional reliever Tuesday night (he should be just fine). Valverde has surrendered 3 runs in 6 innings so far.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: Qualls has four saves in five chances, as his low-90’s heat/high-80’s slider mix has generated plenty of worm-burners (66.7 GB%).

Brian Wilson, Giants: [insert obligatory Beach Boys reference here]. Wilson has whiffed 8 batters in 6.2 innings, surrendering one run. His fastball has had even more hop thus far, coming in at 96.9 MPH (95.8 MPH last year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers: He might not be back just yet, but we might as well toss Hoffman back into the closer’s ring. The big question for the all-time saves leader is: can he limit the long ball damage, now that he doesn’t call cavernous PETCO Park home?

Watch Your Back

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Joel has gotten jacked up so far, with 5 runs surrendered and two blown saves in 7 IP. His first-pitch strike percentage is a gruesome 38.2%, third-worst among all relievers.

Mike Gonzalez, Braves: Gonzalez has missed plenty of bats (11 K in 6.1 IP), but he’s also allowed 3 free passes and 4 runs on his watch. Gonzo relies heavily upon a low-80’s slider (thrown 45.9% of the time in 2009) than can be a wicked offering, but his control of the pitch is scattershot.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg is winning over few people in Wrigleyville so far, with 5 runs allowed in 7 frames. His FIP stands at 6.52, while Carlos Marmol checks in at 3.64.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals: Franklin is apparently the guy in St. Louis for now, and he has done a nice job with 4 saves, 6 K’s and one walk in 7 innings. Still, this is Ryan Franklin, he of 4.87 career strikeouts per nine innings.

Manny Corpas, Rockies: Our first usurping! Corpas led a peaceful transfer of power from Huston Street, who was knocked down the totem pole to middle-man status for the time being. Corpas is a useful reliever, though calling him a shutdown ‘pen arm would be exceedingly kind. His career FIP is 3.79, and his K rate is 6.33 per nine innings.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: ho-hum. Mo has yet to be scored on in seven frames, punching out 8 without issuing a walk. Interestingly (though probably not relevant at all, given the results), Rivera’s scarcely used fastball and bread-and-butter cutter are both down velocity-wise, with the cutter coming in at 90.7 MPH (92.8 in 2008) and the fastball at 91.9 MPH (93.1 MPH in ’08).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: Papelbon is 4-for-4 in save ops to begin the year, though he has had some slight problems in locating his pitches (47.6% of his pitches have been in the strike zone, compared to a 54.8% career average).

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t received a whole lot of work thus far, tossing 4.1 frames. David DeJeus got to him for a two-run HR on Tuesday, Wood’s last appearance.

Joakim Soria, Royals: Soria has been his normal beastly self in the early going, with five saves and eight K’s in 5 IP. Soria has used his wicked low-70’s curveball 24.1% of the time thus far, compared to about 10% in previous years. Perhaps he got bored dominating hitters with his fastball. Or slider. Or changeup..

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has received four innings of work, and hasn’t gotten into a game since April 16th. Somewhere, he’s glaring at Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras.

Joe Nathan, Twins: Like Rivera, Nathan just marches along, posting zero’s near every time he takes the hill. He has surrendered one run in five frames, with three saves to his ledger.

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: Joey Devine underwent Tommy John surgery this past week, eliminating the main competition for the gig. So far, so good for Ziegler: his submarining splendor has generated groundballs at a 68% clip, though he’s walked four in nine frames.

Brandon Morrow, Mariners: He’s getting the hang of this: since getting roped for 3 runs against the Twins on April 7th, Morrow has tossed five scoreless frames, with seven whiffs and 3 walks. Meanwhile, Chris Jakubauskas (who most baseball fans wouldn’t know from Chewbacca) was torched for 10 hits and 6 runs in 3.1 frames last night in a starting role.

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is off to a false start in LA, with a -0.45 WPA and decreased fastball velocity. Just 42.9% of his pitches thrown have crossed the plate.

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco has shot out of the gate dealing, with a 7/1 K/BB ratio and nary a run allowed in 7 innings. It’s extremely early, but Francisco ranks 2nd among all closers in WPA, at +0.84.

Watch Your Back

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: the pain continues for Ryan, who coughed up a long ball to Texas’ Michael Young last evening. His tally for the year: 5.2 IP, 8 runs and a 4/5 K/BB ratio.

George Sherrill, Orioles: Chris Ray hasn’t lit the world on fire either, but Sherrill has given up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5.1 innings. Ultimately, he’s a good middle man miscast in a late-inning role: CHONE projects a FIP in the range of four.

Troy Percival, Rays: Percival is another guy who holds the closer’s role due mostly to its more predictable usage patterns, and putting him there opens up Joe Maddon’s ability to deploy J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler whenever he so chooses. Case in point: Percival has chucked just 3.2 innings so far. Howell has 7, Balfour 4.1 and Wheeler 5.2.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney needs only to peer over his shoulder at Ryan Perry or check a Toledo Mud Hens box score for “Zumaya” to know that his job security ain’t the greatest. To his credit, Rodney has gotten ahead 0-1 or induced early contact often so far, with a first-pitch strike percentage of 77.3 (57.8% major league average).

Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is an equal-opportunity hacker. Bring him your fastballs, your curves, your sliders and your changeups: ball or strike, it matters little to the switch-hitting, ambidextrous Venezuelan.

The swing-from-the-shoe tops approach generally worked to good effect in the minors, where Sandoval authored a career .303/.342/.445 line, including an absurd .350/.394/.578 season in 2008 split between San Jose of the High-A California League and Connecticut of the AA Eastern League.

Pablo also pummeled major league pitching in a scalding cup of java with the Giants to end the year, batting .345/.357/.490. Some claim to have actually seen Sandoval draw a walk, but like Big Foot and Loch Ness sightings, you can never really be sure. Sandoval made a lot of contact (9.7 K%, 86.9 Contact%), but his rate of free passes taken (2.7%) would make Shawon Dunston blush.

Sandoval’s degree of hacking was unmatched: he offered at an absurd 53.8% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (!) Among batters with at least 150 plate appearances, Pablo led the competition by a wide margin. Even notorious bad-ball hitter Vladimir Guerrero couldn’t keep pace, with a 45.5 O-Swing%. Overall, Sandoval swung at 64.6% of the total pitches he saw, giving him a comfortable cushion in front of Miguel Olivo, Humberto Quintero, Vlad and Alexei Ramirez.

In 2009, Sandoval has improved his level of selectivity, swinging at just…52 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (hey, you gotta start somewhere). Unlike last year, the line-drives and doubles aren’t manifest in the box scores: Sandoval has a .279 wOBA in 48 plate appearances, with a walk rate (2.2 BB%) and OBP (.292) that even teammate Juan Uribe could poke fun at.

It seems as though opposing pitchers have just plain stopped throwing Sandoval strikes. They were already reluctant to fill the zone in 2008, given his see-ball, hit-ball edict (46.6% of the pitches that Sandoval saw were in the strike zone, compared to the 51.1% average).

But in ’09, just 33.6% of pitches seen have crossed the plate: that’s the lowest rate among all hitters to this point in the season. Sandoval has almost whiffed as many times in 2009 (11) as he did in over three times the amount of PA’s in ’08 (14). And really, why risk tossing a cookie to Sandoval if there’s a better than 50/50 shot that he’ll swing at something off the dish or in the dirt?

Sandoval is undoubtedly a talented hitter, making the sort of hard contact that leads one to believe that he possesses a .300 skill-set in the majors. However, batting average fluctuates more than most offensive stats; it’s not out of the realm of possibility for someone like Sandoval to hit .244 in a short stretch of at-bats. When that happens, he doesn’t have the proverbial flotation device that walks provide, so his offensive value goes down the drain.

The best thing fantasy owners could do with Sandoval right now is to remain patient. He’s something of a mess at the plate at the moment, but cutting bait now would be to sell an asset at its lowest point. Stay the course if you selected the 22 year-old hacker- this sort of uncertainty comes with the territory when a player’s value is dependent on his batting average.

Stock Up

Corey Hart, Brewers

During the offseason, we noted how in 2008, Hart resembled a happy puppy dog chasing a frisbee every time a pitcher tossed him a slider. The result of the lanky Brewer’s unrestrained hacking was a 4.2 BB% and a .327 wOBA. Opposing hurlers continue to go to the slider versus Hart (24.2% of his total pitches seen thus far in 2009, 19th-highest in the majors), but he’s shown more patience to this point: 8 unintentional walks in 53 PA.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

Swisher appeared in this column last week as well, but his path toward everyday playing time became much cleaner with the news that Xavier Nady might be headed for another Tommy John surgery. Off to a blistering start, Swish is projected to post a useful .360 wOBA by CHONE. Plus, he’s leading the league in ERA (somewhere, Gabe Kapler does bicep curls and weeps).

Zack Greinke, Royals

An absurdly gifted hurler, Greinke has channeled his inner Pedro Martinez by posting a 26/5 K/BB ratio in 20 frames to start the season. KC’s ace has yet to be scored upon, and opposing batters have chased nearly 30% of his offerings out of the strike zone (24.6% average).

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones already proved himself to be a nifty fielder in 2008 (11.5 UZR/150 in center field), but his bat has shown signs of taking flight as well. Like Hart, Jones has worked the count to greater effect in the early going, drawing 7 free passes in 53 PA. The more conservative approach is a welcome sight after the 23 year-old went fishing for pitches outside of the strike zone 36.2% of the time in 2008 (9th-highest in the bigs). Jones left Sunday night’s game with a tight hamstring, but the injury isn’t considered serious.

Manny Corpas, Rockies

Corpas now has dibs on the 9th inning duties in Colorado, as Huston Street will be relegated to middle-man status for the time being. Corpas’ own qualifications for the high-leverage role might be lacking (his career FIP is 3.79, with 6.36 K/9), but he’s worth a look if you can snag him on the cheap.

Stock Down

Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees

Wang’s numbers look like a typo: 6 innings, 23 hits, 23 runs, 34.50 ERA. While keeping in mind that the sample size is incredibly small, his sinker is down velocity-wise (90.5 MPH in ’09, 91.8 MPH in ’08) and his slider has come in softer as well (81.9 MPH, compared to 85.4 MPH in ’08). Perhaps nothing is wrong with Wang long-term- baseball tends to go through its own period of McCarthyism during April, as bold claims are made based on small amount of evidence. Still, Wang has experienced about as much success as this fellow on the bump.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Dice-K hits the DL with “arm fatigue”, as his fastball dips into the high-80’s with a commensurate drop in slider and changeup velocity as well. Matsuzaka is a prime regression candidate in 2009.

Vladimir Guerrero, Angels

Whither Vlad? The aging Impaler posted his lowest Isolated Power figure (.218) since his Expos days in 2008, jumped straight from 32 to 34 during the offseason, and now he’s on the shelf with a torn pectoral muscle that could sideline him for a month or more. At this rate, we’ll find out that Guerrero is actually just a 42 year-old Moises Alou wearing a mask. Speaking of Alou, is Vladimir entering a Moises-type phase of his career, where he rakes when he’s upright enough to take the field?

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

Bonifacio’s hot start engendered hopes that the Fish had lured in a steal during the offseason. However, the Martian inhabiting Emilio’s body departed this past week. He’s 1 for his last 16. Going forward, expect some singles and SB’s, but his total lack of secondary skills will make him something less than an asset.

Alex Gordon, Royals

Failure to Launch: The former Golden Spikes Award winner and Nebraska’s favorite son appeared poised to bust out in 2009, having improved his walk rate considerably during the ’08 season. Unfortunately, Gordon had to undergo hip surgery that is expected to keep him out of commission for about 3 months.

During the offseason, we touched upon the absolutely ridiculous range of the Seattle Mariners’ new outfield. With imports Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez joining Ichiro Suzuki out in the pasture, the M’s figured to possess three center field-worthy gloves to cover the gaps (Ken Griffey Jr. has since been added, to fill the Raul Ibanez comedic relief role).

The potential gain of a Chavez/Gutierrez/Suzuki alignment over Seattle’s consortium of laggardly leather in 2008 is huge, with a swing of perhaps 5 wins (more, if Chavez continues to see the field regularly). Granted, some of those gains will be returned in the hitting department, but the stable of fleet-footed defenders had to be a welcome addition to a pitch-to-contact rotation (M’s starters ranked 22nd in K/9 in 2008, with 5.92).

While Ichiro (ulcer) has only recently returned to the field following his first ever DL stint, Chavez and Gutierrez have put on a clinic in left and center. In ’08, the Mariners’ outfield posted a collective -4.6 UZR/150, meaning that Seattle’s fly-catchers were about five runs worse than average per 150 games played.

In 2009, the M’s outfield has compiled a spit-take worthy 56.9 UZR/150, lapping the field by a significant margin (the Rockies are currently second, with 36 UZR/150). Granted, we are talking about a small sample of games, and no bold claims should be made on defensive numbers in mid-April, but the change in quality has been nothing short of stunning.

Currently, Mariners pitchers have allowed a .128 Batting Average on Balls in Play on flyballs in 2009 (the A.L. average thus far is .230). Last year, M’s hurlers posted a .213 BABIP on flyballs (.215 league average).

Short of finding a way to clone Willie Mays a couple of times, it would be hard to keep up that pace. But, Seattle’s outfield trio comes with glowing scouting reports and the numbers to back them up. Strikeout-challenged starters such as Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva might not look quite as bad, with so many balls put in play being converted into outs, and the resurgent Erik Bedard is slanted toward the flyball end of the pitching spectrum.

Outfield defense might not seem like a big deal from a fantasy perspective, but having quality defenders behind a pitcher can be the difference between a guy being roster-worthy or simply waiver fodder. With Chavez, Gutierrez and now Ichiro manning the outfield, whomever takes the mound for the M’s does so with a leg up on the competition.

Earlier this month, we discussed Athletics southpaw Brett Anderson and his surprising polish for such a youthful starter. It’s only fitting that we now turn our attention to right-hander Trevor Cahill, as Oakland’s lefty-righty prospect duo has been inextricably linked since Anderson’s arrival in the system last year. Cahill is peanut butter to Anderson’s jelly; they just go together.

While Anderson was brought in as part of the freighter of talent acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren deal, Cahill was a second-round draft pick out of Vista, California in the 2006 amateur draft. The A’s paid Cahill $560K to eschew a scholarship to Dartmouth, valuing an emerging arm that Baseball America claimed had “surprising feel and command for such an inexperienced pitcher.”

You would have thought that Cahill polished his game and got that Ivy League diploma, judging from the way he pummeled opposing batters in his full-season debut in 2007. In 105.1 innings with Kane County, Cahill struck out exactly 10 batters per nine innings, while inducing a boatload of grounders (56.4 GB%) with an arsenal including a low-90’s sinker, a knuckle-curve, a slider and a changeup. His control was just moderate (3.42 BB/9), but the combination of whiffs and worm-burners was exciting, to say the least.

The 6-3, 195 pounder began the 2008 season in what can often be pitching purgatory: the High-A California League. Undeterred, Cahill bested his ’07 FIP (2.74) by posing a 2.63 mark with Stockton in 87.1 IP. You name it, and Cahill improved upon it: his K rate climbed to 10.61, he slightly shaved down the walks (3.19 BB/9), and he was downright Webb-esque in keeping the ball in the dirt (61.4 GB%).

Passing that test with flying colors, Cahill was bumped up to AA Midland, where he tossed 37 frames. He hit the first rocky path of his career with the RockHounds, though you wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his ERA (2.19). Not that he was bad by any stretch, but Cahill walked 4.62 batters per nine, with 8 K/9 and a 3.90 FIP. The grounders kept coming, however, at a 61.8% clip.

Cahill has always been considered an integral part of future A’s contenders, but his time in the big leagues came a year before most anticipated that he would grace the Coliseum. Cahill’s major league debut versus the Angels on April 7th was turbulent (5 IP, 5 walks, 1 K), but he turned in a quality outing on the 12th versus the Mariners (7 IP, 1 R, 2 hits).

Cahill might not be as major league-ready as his southpaw partner in crime (his control can desert him at times). But, the 21 year-old looks an awful lot like a Brandon Webb starter kit: a good number of swings and misses, coupled with a ground-based attack that makes it difficult for opponents to loft the ball out of the infield. That represents the best-case scenario, of course, but Cahill could entangle hitters for years to come as the A’s synthesize yet another formidable rotation.