Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

de la Rosa sure has played roster hot-potato for a lefty cooking in the low-90’s, having been a part of four trades while seeing time in the Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado systems. The 28 year-old, as covered in great detail by Eno Sarris, has kicked off the 2009 season with a 2.99 FIP, 9.49 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 42.2 innings. de la Rosa has been fortunate in the home run department (0.42 HR/9, 4.9 HR/FB%), but his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR rate) still checks in at a tidy 3.70. If de la Rosa can keep the walks at a moderate rate, he could be an asset in most any league.

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ’09 season bears mentioning: he’s already popped 6 out of the park in 73 plate appearances (this after hitting a combined 16 dingers in over 1,100 PA’s during the 2007 and 2008 seasons). Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Ubaldo has done a better job of limiting the base on balls in recent starts, with 22 K’s, 6 walks and 6 runs allowed in 27 frames during the month of May. Like de la Rosa, Jimenez has had some good luck on flyballs (0.20 HR/9, 2.4 HR/FB%), but his XFIP is a decent 4.43 despite a disastrous April (16 runs, 19/17 K/BB in 19 IP). The combination of whiffs (8.02 K/9) and worm-burners (50 GB%) makes the 25 year-old Dominican Republic native an intriguing trade target.

Jayson Werth, Phillies

The whole “is player X overrated/underrated” debate is obviously subjective, but Werth has to place among the more underappreciated talents in the game. How many people realize just how valuable this rangy, 6-2, 225 pounder has been for the Phillies since 2007? A 3.4 Win player in partial playing time in ’07, Werth posted a 5.3 WAR season for the Phillies in 2008 (tied with Jimmy Rollins for 2nd in a star-studded lineup), and he’s produced 1.4 wins already in 2009. With a .415 wOBA (.294/.396/.540) and 8 steals in 9 attempts, Werth is producing in every facet of the game. He’s even making a little more contact (23.8 K%, 29.9 career average), while raking against righties (.849 OPS) in addition to his usual lefty lashing (1.142 OPS).

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello has gone from Seton Hall Prep to viable major league starter in less than two seasons, as the 20 year-old sinkerballer has allowed 2 runs in 18 innings during the month of May. Porcello isn’t blowing batters away (5.67 K/9), but he’s stingy with the free passes (2.95 BB/9) and generates grounders (53.6 GB%) with the sinker, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. Porcello is doing a better job of throwing his three quality offerings (particularly his curveball) from the same arm-slot. Check out his release point chart against the Yankees, in a 3.2 inning, 6 run drubbing on April 29th…

…and his release point in a 6-inning, 1 run gem against the A’s on May 16th…

Stock Down

Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

There has been a general malaise over the South Side bats in 2009 (the Pale Hose rank 26th in wOBA), and Ramirez is one of the main culprits. Ramirez has been slightly more “patient” in ’09 ( we’re speaking in incredibly relative terms here: 5.6 BB%, 37.2 Outside Swing Percentage in 2009 compared to 3.6 BB% and a 42.7 O-Swing% in ’08), but the “Cuban Missile” has failed to launch, with a sickly .243 wOBA. His BABIP sits at a very low .238, so some positive regression should be expected. Still, his .051 ISO is downright Bloomquistian. This is what you sign up for if you gamble on a batting average-dependent player: when those hits don’t fall in, that player’s value craters.

Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals

Just when it looked like Wellemeyer might establish himself as a competent mid-rotation cog (4.51 FIP in 2008), he has gone and reminded everyone why he’s a former Cub, Marlin and Royal. His K rate has dipped from 6.29 per nine in ’08 to 5.28 in ’09, with his BB/9 inflating from 2.91 to 4.11. Wellemeyer’s go-to secondary offering last year was a mid-80’s slider (thrown 23.6% of the time), but his slider usage is down this season (12.9%), as is its velocity (83.1 MPH). In place of the hard breaker, the 30 year-old has mixed in a few high-80’s cutters and some high-70’s curves. The kitchen sink approach does not appear to be working.

Josh Fields, White Sox

The former first-rounder out of Oklahoma State has been a wreck at the plate this season, whiffing 32.8 percent of the time while making Scott Podsednik look like a power hitter (.096 ISO). That’s quite the fall for a guy who authored a .236 ISO during the 2007 season. At 26 years old and coming off a mundane season spent at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (.347 wOBA, .772 OPS), Fields isn’t such a highly-regarded youngster than he can continue to post oh-fer’s and stay in the lineup. He’s not on the Drew Henson path of doom quite yet, but he might want to take a few snaps in between BP sessions.

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

As a free-talent pickup from Texas, Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers in 2008 while many other Detroit hurlers crashed and burned. A good deal of regression should have been expected this season (Galarraga’s 3.73 ERA far surpassed his 4.88 FIP), but we weren’t quite anticipating this kind of spontaneous combustion. While Verlander, Jackson and Porcello deal, 2008’s nominal ace has a 5.62 FIP and a walk rate closing in on five batters per nine innings. His last outing on May 17th was a 0.2 inning, 5-run disaster against the light-hitting A’s.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

The Crushin’ Russian has not lived up to his nickname so far in 2009. Kouzmanoff’s Isolated Power figure comes in at just .101, continuing a three-year downward trend: his ISO was .182 in 2007 (his first full season in the big leagues) and .173 in 2008. The 28 year-old’s wOBA’s have dipped from .339 in ’07, .316 in ’08 and just .284 in 2009. The Padres are giving some thought to putting Chase Headley back at the hot corner, to make room for mammoth 6-6, 275 pound prospect Kyle Blanks in left field (it’s a stretch, but he’s more athletic than you might think). Kouzmanoff will need to show something in the coming weeks if he hopes to avoid being usurped.

Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp looks like a star. A 6-2, 230 pounder with a breath-taking power/speed combo, Kemp made his major league debut back in 2006 after mashing in the upper levels of the minors (including a career .350/.403/.551 showing at AAA). Kemp was understandably raw as a 21 year-old rookie back in ’06, with a .317 wOBA and a .253/.289/.448 line in 166 PA.

In 2007, Los Angeles’ sixth-round pick in the 2003 draft posted a sweet .383 wOBA, compiling a .342/.373/.521 triple-slash in 311 PA. In retrospect, it should have been apparent that Kemp’s output was a little over his head: his BABIP was an obscene .417. Kemp is an athletic sort who has generally posted high BABIP’s in the minors and majors, but a Ted Williams-like showing when the ball is put in play isn’t something that one can depend on.

With some correction on the BABIP front (.363), Kemp’s wOBA fell to .349 (.290/.340/.459) in 657 PA during his first full season’s worth of hacks at the big league level. However, while his 2008 campaign might look mildly disappointing on the surface, Kemp made strides in terms of controlling the strike zone. His walk rate increased from 5.2% in 2007 to 7.1% in 2008, and his Outside Swing Percentage dipped from a Francoeur-like 36.4% to 31.5% (the average was 25.4% in 2008). His Isolated Power remained largely the same (.178 in ’07, .168 in ’08).

The 25 year-old has further refined his approach in 2009. His wOBA is back up to .380 (.295/.365/.496 in 156 PA), and while his BABIP is .381, there’s reason to believe that he can sustain that level of production. Kemp’s walk rate has jumped again, up to a healthy 9.7%. The increased number of free passes relates to a further drop in chasing pitches off the plate or in the dirt: Kemp’s Outside Swing Percentage of 24.6% is right around the 24.4 percent major league average this season. In addition to the patience, Kemp has a career-high .201 ISO.

It’s been fascinating to watch the diverging paths that Matt Kemp and Jeff Francoeur have taken since breaking into the majors. Both were big, tools-laden hitters with ample right-handed pop from well-regarded farm systems. Yet, one stands on the verge of stardom, while the other hacked his way back to Mississippi for a brief period last summer. Kemp is essentially the anti-Francoeur: the toolsy youngster who has added polish to his game, only getting better as time goes on.

Baltimore Orioles fans must live a peculiar existence these days, with one eye on the Jones’ and Markakis’ of the major league squad and the other eye fixed squarely on the minor league box scores, checking up on the Wieters’, Tillman’s and Matusz’s of the system.

It would be difficult to fault anyone for taking such an approach. Residing in baseball’s most challenging division, the O’s currently sit at 16-21, with a -30 run differential that ranks dead last in the American League. The main culprit has been the starting rotation. Calling upon fellows named “Eaton” and “Hendrickson”, Baltimore has gotten a collective 5.41 FIP from its starters, which ranks ahead of only the homer-happy Phillies group.

However, not all is bleak. The Orioles appear to have landed themselves a quality starter on the free agent market this past winter in Koji Uehara.

A Japanese import, Uehara came stateside with the reputation for pounding the strike zone. He’s done just that, with 7 unintentional free passes in 42.2 innings pitched (1.48 BB/9). The 34 year-old right-hander has been as adept as any starter in terms of getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first pitch. His 69.4 First-Pitch Strike Percentage is significantly above the 57.7% major league average, and ranks behind only Arizona’s Dan Haren (71.6%) among all starters.

While no one will mistake Uehara for a power pitcher, he’s no weakling out there either. The former Yomiuri Giant has managed to strike out 6.75 batters per nine innings, giving him a sterling 4.57 K/BB ratio that places 7th among starters. Uehara’s repertoire is expansive: in addition to an 87.2 MPH fastball (used 56.6% of the time), he unleashes an 82 MPH cutter (6.7%) and a 66.1 MPH curveball (81.7 MPH). Of course, his bread-and-butter offering is a dastardly 79.3 MPH splitter, a strikeout pitch thrown 32.5% of the time (our pitch data also shows him throwing a few changeups, but those are likely splitters as well).

That splitter offers great contrast to his rather modest heater. Uehara’s fastball actually has a significant amount of vertical movement for a pitch thrown at such velocity, with 12.2 inches of vertical break compared to a pitch thrown without spin. His splitter, in contrast, has 6.3 inches of vertical movement (Pitch F/X classifies it as a changeup, but most everyone refers to it as a splitter).

Take a look at this release point chart from Uehara’s last start against the Yankees, on May 10th. Notice how his release points on the fastball and splitter (called a changeup here) overlap:

Now, note the pronounced difference between Uehara’s fastball and splitter, in terms of vertical movement (focus on the green and orange dots):

The two pitches come out of a similar arm slot, with about a 7 MPH difference in velocity. Yet, one drops a half-foot more than the other at the last moment. That’s deceptive, and has likely contributed to Uehara garnering a good deal of swings on outside pitches. His Outside-Swing Percentage sits at 30.8, above the 24.4% MLB average.

Uehara does have one flaw. Namely, his penchant for putting the ball in the air. As one might expect from a guy working up in the zone with mid-to-high-80’s cheddar, Uehara has posted one of the lowest groundball rates in the big leagues. His 26.3% mark is second only to Ted Lilly (23.6%). That flyball-centric approach has led to 1.27 home runs per nine innings.

Koji Uehara did not venture to the majors with near the same degree of fanfare as some recent Japanese players, but he has acclimated himself about as well as one could have hoped for. With a 4.04 FIP and a nasty splitter, Uehara will hold the fort until Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and company are ready for prime time.

As former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted this past offseason, Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks has been breaking baseball hearts for years. The 2nd overall pick out of Southern University back in 2003, Weeks crushed minor league pitching to the tune of .289/.387/.493, including a gargantuan 2005 season at AAA Nashville (.320/.435/.655) that earned him a spot in the big leagues that June. A powerfully built right-handed hitter with a Sheffield-like bat waggle and quick wrists, Weeks looked like he should have hit the ground running.

That 2005 big league campaign wasn’t awe-inspiring (.328 wOBA, .239/.333/.394), but Weeks drew walks at a 10% clip as a 22 year-old, while posting a respectable .156 ISO. His 2006 season (interrupted by a wrist injury) looked superficially better (.344 wOBA), but his .279/.363/.404 line was mostly the product of a .355 BABIP (.291 in 2005). In terms of working the count (7.7 BB%) and hitting for power (.125 ISO), the second baseman actually took a step back.

Then came an exciting 2007 season which again conjured up hope that Weeks would make good on his star prospect status. Although he again dealt with a wrist malady (and was actually optioned to the minors in early August), his wOBA climbed to .365. Weeks drew a free pass a robust 16% of the time with a .189 ISO, leading to a .235/.374/.433 showing. He absolutely clobbered the ball in the second half of the season, with a .903 OPS (.720 in the first half).

So, the stage was set for Weeks to bust out. Except, he didn’t. He wasn’t bad, mind you, with a near league-average wOBA of .334. He still worked the count well (12.2 BB%), but he didn’t show quite as much pop (.164 ISO). His Line Drive% was just 15.1. Injuries continued to bother Weeks as well (a sore left knee and a left thumb this time). Combine the mildly disappointing lumber with an improved-but-still-iron glove and a tendency to get nicked up, and Weeks was beginning to look like just another guy.

In 2009, however, the 26 year-old is finally thumping opposing pitchers like many scouts projected. With 9 dingers and a .257 ISO in 153 PA, Weeks has a .377 wOBA that ranks 8th among second basemen. The 5-11, 210 pounder has been a little more aggressive in ’09, chasing 23.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (19.6% career average). His walk rate (6.7%) and P/PA (3.8 in ’09, compared to 4.2 in 2007 and 4.1 in 2008) also reflect a less restrained approach. Weeks is also lofting the ball more often (43.8 FB%, 37.1 career average) and his line drive rate has rebounded (19%). His K rate, always rather lofty, is largely unchanged (25% in ’09, 26.2% career).

Weeks’ BABIP (.323) is perhaps a little higher than one might anticipate, but his power stroke should be here to stay. When not hampered with hand injuries, Weeks has shown the ability to drive the ball. The updated ZiPS projections on our player pages (which blend preseason projections with early-season performances) show Weeks posting a .262/.353/.462 line, good for a .360 wOBA. That checks in as the 8th-best forecast among second baseman. We’ve waited on Weeks for years, but perhaps that patience will finally be rewarded.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera actually had something of a rough week, giving up two long balls to the Rays on the seventh. That performance prompted manager Joe Girardi to leak that Mo’s surgically repaired shoulder has been giving the cutter demi-god some problems . Not that you’d know it from the 18/1 K/BB ratio, but Rivera’s cutter velocity continues to sit about 2 MPH slower than last season.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon has yet to blow a save, but he has raised the collective blood pressure of Boston’s fans a little more than usual in the later innings. He has dished out 9 walks in 15 frames and holds a 3.72 FIP. His K/BB ratio stands at 2.11, compared to his career 4.66 rate.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood holds a 4.00 FIP, a middling mark, but that looks downright impressive compared to some of the other arsonists in Cleveland’s ‘pen: the Tribe 27th in reliever FIP and 28th in WPA. Wood had only one appearance this week, pitching a scoreless inning in a losing effort against the Tigers on the 9th.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks had progressively become more of a contact-oriented reliever over the past few seasons, with his K rate plummeting from the double-digits to just 5.55 per nine in 2008. In 2009, however, high-octane Bobby might be back: his heater velocity is up nearly 2 MPH from last season, and his contact rate has dipped from 84.5% in ’08 to just 74.4% in ’09, the lowest mark of his career (80.6% MLB average). Jenks has 12 whiffs in 12 innings thus far, and is a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has reeled of 5 scoreless innings in the month of May. Nathan seems to be baiting opponents to chase his stuff out of the zone, with just 43.6% of his pitches crossing home plate (51.5% career average). The strategy appears to be working, as hitters have made contact on just 55.6% of those outside offerings (62.3 % MLB average) while chasing them 34% of the time (24.4% MLB average).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco hasn’t pitched since May 6th, as he deals with a bout of biceps tendinitis. Hopefully the injury isn’t serious: Francisco leads all relievers in WPA (2.00), with zero runs allowed in 14.2 frames. C.J. Wilson (4.49 FIP) and Eddie Guardado (7.55 FIP) will get any save chances in the meantime, though neither come highly recommended

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler continues to fight the flu, and he’s surrendered 5 runs (4 earned) in his last two appearances on the 7th and the 10th. Zielger hasn’t been bad this year (3.72 FIP), but Bailey has been a beast: with 24 K in 21.1 IP, the rookie right-hander holds a 2.53 FIP. Bailey’s low-90’s fastball, high-80’s cutter and mid-70’s curve have been extremely difficult to square up: opponents have just a 73.2% contact rate against pitches in the zone against the rookie righty (87.7% MLB average).

Brandon Morrow, Mariners

Back off the DL, Morrow walked two and gave up a run in an inning of work against the Twins on May 10th. We’re only talking about 7.2 innings of work so far, but Morrow has used his upper-90’s fastball 91.1% of the time, the highest rate among all relievers. Unfortunately, with 9 walks and just 41.3% of his pitches over the plate, his fastball control is a little rusty.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes has a four-appearance scoreless streaking going, a modest accomplishment after a rough re-introduction to the AL (he was briefly a Mariner back in ’01). He’s still fooling batters (15 K in 11.2 IP), and his .421 BABIP is sure to continue dropping.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan is nearing a return to Toronto, but his old cozy spot won’t be waiting for him. According to GM J.P. Ricciardi, Downs will remain the 9th inning man for the time being. It’s hard to argue with the decision, given Ryan’s rocky performance and Downs’ dazzling work (20/1 K/BB ratio, 1.90 FIP in 16.1 innings).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney had his first rough stretch in terms of throwing strikes this week, issuing 3 BB in two appearances against Cleveland on the 9th and 10th. Hopefully, this isn’t a sign of things to come for the normally strike zone-challenged reliever: he had been doing a fine job of locating his pitches, with 59.2% of them ending up in the strike zone (fourth-highest among all relievers).

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

The Mexicutioner hits the DL for a second time with a wonky shoulder, a troubling development. GM Dayton Moore says there’s no “structural damage” (“just” rotator cuff inflammation), but free agent import Cruz will handle the 9th inning for the time being.

Cruz’s ERA may sit at 1.88, but he’s struggled to throw strikes with an 11/9 K/BB in 14.1 IP. A .169 BABIP has aided him thus far, and he’ll have to do a better job of pounding the zone if he expects to have continued success.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill racked up a save last night against the Rays, and he’s apparently still the guy for the time being. The lefty has been rather hittable (opponents have made contact with 92.5% of his pitches within the zone, compared to the 87.7% MLB average), and Sherrill has handed out 7 walks in 14.2 IP. His grip on the job will always be tenuous; he’s like a southpaw version of Mike Williams.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival has FIP’s of 5.87 and 4.80 over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, but he’ll continue to get the call in the 9th so that Balfour, Howell et. all can work more than 3 outs at a time. Percival has put himself in jams in his 8.2 frames of work, with a 44.4% First-Pitch Strike % (57.8% MLB average).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez is 9-for-9 in save opportunities this season, with 16 whiffs in 15.2 frames. K Rod has always been a flyball-oriented sort (41.9 GB%), but he’s taken that tendency to the extreme in 2009: his groundball rate sits at 20%, third-lowest among all relievers. Luckily for the Mets, Citi Field is playing favorably toward such flyball-slanted arms in the early going.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continues to produce Nintendo-style numbers on the hill, with 27 punchouts, 2 hits and 1 run allowed in 16 frames. The 24 year-old has been absolutely untouchable in May: in 5 IP, he’s punched out eight without a hit or a walk. Broxton will eventually surrender some bloops (his BABIP is .099), but his appearances are fast becoming Gagne-esque, “Game Over” events.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has had plenty of time to hit the Wii-Fit in recent days: he hasn’t appeared in a game since May 7th. Reality is hitting the Padres right between the eyes. After a 9-4 start, the Fathers have gone an unholy 4-16. Bell still hasn’t had a runner cross home plate on his watch, with an 11.2 inning scoreless streak and a 1.60 WPA that ranks second among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls is going through a rare rough path of pitching, having been scored upon in two of his last three appearances. Still, he holds a superb 16/2 K/BB ratio in 13 frames, with a 2.42 FIP that rates as his lowest figure in the majors.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps missed some time nursing a sore elbow, but that’s okay: the Bucs accomodated their closer by going on an eight-game losing streak. The beefy right-hander worked an inning of mop-up duty in last night’s 7-1 victory over St. Louis, again showing shaky control with two walks surrendered. Capps now has issued more free passes in 2009 than he did during the entire 2008 season.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

May has been rather cruel to Philly’s stopper: Lidge has surrendered 6 runs in his past four innings, with two more souvenirs entering the bleachers. He’s now given up 5 dingers in 13.2 innings, for a 21.7 HR/FB% that looks like a misprint. Lidge’s First-Pitch Strike% sits at 47.8% (58.9 career average). If his knee continues to bark and the long-balls continue, Madson could make a cameo in the event of a DL stint. Madson has a FIP hovering around two, and he’s kept the fastball velocity spike from late last season (94.7 MPH in 2009).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero is now 10-for-10 in save ops, missing bats (16 K in 15 IP) while also making things a little too interesting for Cincy’s fans (7 BB). Utilizing his mid-90’s fastball more often (71.8%) at the expense of his high-80’s slider (20.6%), Cordero has seen his Outside Swing% fall for a third straight season. Cordero threw that hard, biting breaking pitch 46.2% of the time in 2007, while garnering an O-Swing% of 35.4%. The slider usage dropped to 37.3% in 2008 (30.4 O-Swing%), and with another decrease in slider usage, his O-Swing% sits at 26.8% in 2009 (24.4 MLB average).

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Filling in for Valverde, Hawkins notched a save on the 8th, gave up a pair of hits on the 9th and hasn’t pitched since. LaTroy is looking more like the fellow who posted back-to-back strong seasons with the Twins in 2002 and 2003, as opposed to the low-octane Orioles and Rockies version from 2006-2007. He has 13 K’s in 15 innings, with a 78.5% contact rate that rates as his lowest dating back to ’02 (80.6% MLB average).

Brian Wilson, Giants

With a career-high 3.17 K/BB ratio, Wilson has notched 8 saves in 10 chances. Hitters continue to take few hacks at Wilson’s offerings, swinging at 58.8% of his pitches thrown within the strike zone (65.9% MLB average). His fastball (just about the straightest pitch in the majors in 2007 and 2008, with less about a half an inch of horizontal movement compared to a pitch thrown without spin) is wiggling a little more in ’09, with 3.7 inches of tailing action in on righty batters.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

“Hell’s Bells” has been a hit in Beertown thus far, with 7 scoreless frames, no walks and six saves. Interestingly, Hoffman’s signature changeup is showing more “sinking” action this season: thrown with 9.5 inches of vertical movement in 2007, the pitch had 8.8 inches of vertical movement in ’08 and just 6 inches in ’09. Perhaps it’s just a small-sample quirk, but could that have something to do with Hoffman’s uncharacteristic 66.7 GB%?

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom has rebounded with seven straight scoreless appearances since April 24th’s bludgeoning at the hands of the Phillies. Never a control-artist, Lindstrom has issued 9 free passes in 13 innings, while locating just 45% of his pitches in the strike zone.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan, Nationals

Beimel got the call in the 9th last night, and promptly served up a three-run bomb to hacking wonder Pablo Sandoval that turned a 7-6 lead into a 9-7 loss. Maybe he just wanted to fit in: seven of twelve relievers used by the Nats this season have negative WPA figures. Who gets the call next time out is anyone’s guess. Can Ryan Zimmerman close, too?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

While it might rankle fantasy owners, Braves skipper Bobby Cox made a refreshing decision in calling upon Gonzalez in the 8th against the Phillies on May 10th. With three straight lefties due up for Philly, Cox deployed his relievers in a manner that best called for them to be used. He didn’t obstinately say, “Gonzalez is my closer, therefore he must enter the game in the 9th with a lead between one and three runs.” If Cox continues this trend, it could cost Gonzo a few save ops while aiding the Braves overall.

On the year, Gonzalez has 19 K’s in 14.2 innings, with a 2.71 FIP. Soriano has blown hitters away to the tune of a 1.75 FIP in 16 IP, with 22 whiffs induced.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg took a beating to start the season, but he hasn’t given up a run in his last 5.2 innings, with a 7/2 K/BB ratio. Despite placing just 43.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average), Gregg has a 66.2 First-Pitch Strike% that eclipses the 57.8% big league average (that’s also the highest rate of his career). The pitches that Gregg does put in the zone are being swung at often (72.3%, 65.9% MLB average), with a low contact rate (78.7%, 87.7% MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has finally been scored upon, after a run of 13 clean appearances to begin the season. The 36 year-old and his newfound cutter (thrown over a quarter of the time) coughed up two homers against the Reds on May 10th (to Jerry Hairston and Micah Owings).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has had a rather quiet week, tossing a scoreless inning on the 8th versus the Marlins and then racking up a save in another spotless frame versus the Fish on the 10th. The former A’s stopper has posted rates of 9.45 K/9 and 1.35 BB/9, though 3 taters in 13.1 innings have put a damper on his line. Street’s a flyball-centric pitcher in a park where that’s a no-no, but his .355 BABIP and 17.6 HR/FB rate portend to better days ahead.

Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester entered the 2009 season with enormous expectations. Fresh off a strong 2008 campaign in which he compiled a 3.64 FIP and progressively gained velocity as the season went on, the 25 year-old had plenty of hype surrounding him this offseason.

At first glance, Lester sure seems like a massive disappointment to this point. One might initially feel as though Lester has been shelled in 2009, given his losing record and 6.31 ERA. However, there are a number of reasons to expect a strong rebound from Boston’s co-ace.

Lester might have a grisly ERA, but his 4.35 Fielding Independent ERA is considerably sunnier. His strikeout rate has swelled to 10.67 per nine innings: that’s the sixth-highest rate among all starters. Also, his walk rate has remained stable (2.83 BB/9, compared to last year’s 2.82 mark, and his BB/PA is 7.1% in ’09 compared to 7.6% in ’08).

If anything, that FIP actually understates how good Lester has been: he has surrendered a whopping 1.74 home runs per nine innings, with an inflated HR/FB mark of 17.4%. HR/FB rates tend to hover around 10-11%, and Lester’s career rate sits at 9%. When that rate regresses, Lester’s ERA should drop like a lead balloon. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (to root out his poor luck of flyballs), Lester checks in at 3.79. That’s four-tenths of a run lower than last season, and ranks 6th among American League starters.

Lester has also has endured a spate of bad luck on balls put in play: his BABIP sits at .394, tied with fellow Red Sock and rebound candidate Josh Beckett for the highest mark in the big leagues. Boston isn’t performing especially well with the leather as a team (ranking 25th in UZR/150), but that figure will surely drop as time goes on.

This would be the perfect time to pilfer Lester from a frustrated owner. His numbers are superficially gruesome, but the underlying performance is actually very encouraging. If you own Lester, sit tight and wait for better days ahead. If not, then do all you can to acquire him on the cheap.

Stock Up

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.

On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).

Jay Bruce, Reds

It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.

Carl Crawford, Rays

Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.

Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.

David Wright, Mets

Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.

Stock Down

Scott Kazmir, Rays

What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.

Mike Aviles, Royals

Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves

Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.

Ian Snell, Pirates

Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.

On the Molina Continuum of Offensive Skill, Cardinals backstop Yadier Molina falls in between punchless Jose and powerful Bengie. The youngest Molina’s production at the plate was decidedly Jose-like during his first three seasons in the big leagues. After posting a lackluster .294 wOBA during a cup of coffee with the Cards in 2004, Yadier actually went south in a full-time role the next two seasons, with wOBA’s of .282 in 2005 and .261 in 2006. Grimly, Jose bested Yadier in each of those years.

Yadier showed some signs of life at the plate in 2007. We’re speaking in relative terms here, but his high-contact antics finally produced a passable batting average. Though he whiffed less than 10 percent of the time in ’05 and ’06, Yadier batted just .252 and .216, respectively, as a result of very low BABIP figures (.256 in ’05 and .227 in ’06). With a more commensurate .299 BABIP in ’07, the junior Molina posted a .275/.340/.368 line, with a wOBA of .311. Yadier then performed at a similar clip in 2008, albeit with a batting average spike. He hit .304/.349/.392, with a .323 wOBA.

Perhaps Yadier had a little talk with Bengie during the off-season, because the 26 year-old is showing some pop for the first time in his career. Yadier’s highest Isolated Power figure prior to 2009 was just .106, a mark he reached in both 2005 and 2006. He had a .093 ISO in ’07 and a .088 mark in ’08. This year, though? Yadier is up to .161, with a .484 slugging percentage that’s 122 points above his career average. With a .382 wOBA, Yadier ranks fourth among all catchers (ironically, Bengie is fifth at .378).

While some of Bengie’s thump might have rubbed off on Yadier, St. Louis’ backstop hasn’t shared his brother’s penchant for swinging at anything within a ten mile radius of home plate. Yadier is drawing walks at a career-high 10.6% rate, above his 7.1% career average. The improved discipline is exhibited by a pared-down Outside-Swing Percentage. After chasing 31.4% of pitches thrown off the dish in 2008, Yadier has offered at just 20.1% of those pitches this season (24.4% MLB average).

Yadier’s offensive game will likely never include Bengie’s brute-force strength, but he surely won’t be confused with Jose ever again. The youngest Molina has turned himself into a quality hitter. He makes a ton of contact (87.5% career contact rate that’s 8% above the league average, as well as a 9.5 K%), he’s no longer a banjo-hitter, and he’ll work some free passes. If you’re in need of a catcher, you could do a lot worse than Yadier.

As Eric Seidman astutely pointed out, baseball fans can become spoiled. Excellence, in some cases, is eventually taken for granted. Call it the Albert Pujols Effect: a guy laps the competition for so long, that we gradually come to view that brilliant player as mundane, boring; been there, done that.

Johan Santana certainly falls into this category. As a Minnesota Twin, the lefty changeup artist was a pitching cyborg. He posted Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals of 7.7, 7.6, and 7.3 between 2004 and 2006. Santana “declined” to a mere 4.6 and 4.8 over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, which still put him among the best hurlers in the game. However, spoiled by his Bob Gibson-like reign of terror, some fans claimed that Santana was no longer special.

Oops. As it turns out, the 30 year-old is just fine, thanks. In 39.2 innings this season, Santana has punched out a jaw-dropping 54 batters (12.25 K/9), which is the highest rate of his career. His FIP sits at a microscopic 2.03, and he has compiled 1.7 WAR already. That’s tied with Tim Lincecum for the third-highest mark in the majors: only Dan Haren and Zack Greinke have provided more value to this point. How good has Santana been? Consider the following..

– Santana is generating swings on pitches thrown outside the strike zone 31.6% of the time. That’s the highest mark that we have for him dating back to 2002, and is nearly 5 percent higher than his 2008 figure.

– When they aren’t fishing for one off the plate, opposing batters are having plenty of difficulty making contact with pitches over the plate. Santana’s Z-Contact% (the percentage of contact made on pitches in the strike zone) is just 73.8%, compared to the 87.7% MLB average. Again, that’s the lowest mark for Santana dating back to 2002, and it’s the lowest rate among all starting pitchers.

– Santana’s overall Contact% of 68.3 is bested only by Rich Harden’s 66.1.

– With a 67.1 First-Pitch Strike%, Santana ranks sixth in the majors. He’s getting ahead 0-1 or ending the at-bat after the first pitch at his highest rate since 2005.

It may be fun and refreshing to try and identify the next batch of premium pitching talent, but let’s not forget about the current crop, either. Santana is primed for a huge season, not that his work over the last few years was anything short of superb.