Kenji Johjima won’t be back with the Seattle Mariners next year. The 33 year-old backstop, signed out of Japan prior to the 2006 season, has decided to return home. He leaves two years and $16M on the table, as part of an ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract extension covering the 2009-2011 seasons (is “ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract” redundant?)

Johjima posted solid 2006 and 2007 campaigns, with wOBA’s of .338 and .327, respectively. However, his offense fell off a cliff in 2008 (.272 wOBA), and he turned in another mediocre season in 2009 (.305 wOBA). Johjima’s walk and strikeout rates remained stable, but his BABIP tumbled from the low-.290’s over the 2006-2007 seasons to the .240 range from 2008-2009.

That’s extremely low, but the former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk had a few factors working against him: he hit a lot of groundballs (never a good idea for a slow-footed backstop) and he popped the ball up often (infield flies are near automatic outs).

With Johjima now out of the picture, Seattle’s internal options behind the dish are Rob Johnson and Adam Moore.

Johnson, 26, split time with Johjima this past season. The University of Houston alumnus is known more for his defensive virtues than his lumber. Johnson has authored a .270/.323/.389 line during his minor league career , including a .270/.323/.381 triple-slash in three seasons at AAA Tacoma.

The righty batter was an absolute hacker his first time around the Pacific Coast League in 2006, walking in 3.7% of his PA, punching out 22 percent and posting a lousy .258 wOBA. In 2007, he bumped that wOBA up to .311, drawing a free pass 8.5% and whiffing 14.7%. Johnson posted similar walk and strikeout numbers in 2008, but his wOBA climbed to .351 (he hit for slightly more power, but a 40 point increase in BABIP boosted that figure).

In his first extended big league trial, Johnson batted just .213/.289/.326 in 290 PA, with a .274 wOBA. On the positive side, he walked in 9.2% of his PA. But as you might expect from that line, there were plenty of problems with Johnson’s lumber.

He was jammed at a sky-high rate, with an infield/fly ball rate of 20 percent (7th-highest among batters with 250+ PA). Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs, as Johnson posted an ugly -1.7 run/100 pitches value against heaters (5th-worst among batters with 250+ PA). He posted a negative run value against curves, sliders, cutters and changeups, as well.

Moore, 25, is the more interesting player from a fantasy perspective. A 6th-rounder in the 2006 draft taken out of Texas-Arlington, Moore has shown considerably more offensive promise.

In 2007, he batted a robust .307/.371/.543 at High-A High Desert. That ball park is a launching pad, but his park-adjusted line of .296/.363/.498 was still pretty tasty.

Bumped up to AA West-Tennessee in 2008, Moore mashed to the tune of .319/.396/.506. He walked 8.5% of the time, with a modest 17.9% K rate and a .186 ISO.

The 6-3, 220 pound right-handed hitter split the 2009 season between AA and AAA Tacoma. Back at West-Tennessee, he showed excellent plate discipline (14.4 BB%), batting .263/.371/.411 in 116 PA.

With the Rainers, Moore posted a .294/.346/.429 triple-slash in 368 PA. He walked 7.1 percent and punched out 15 percent, with a .135 ISO. Moore was called up to Seattle in September, drawing a few starts down the stretch.

As a guy in his mid-twenties, Moore isn’t a monster prospect. But, he has enough offensive ability to be a league-average (.330-.335 wOBA) hitter. That’s pretty valuable, when one considers that the average MLB catcher hit just .254/.320/.395 in 2009. That equates to a wOBA around .324.

The Mariners could opt to bring in a veteran via free agency, but the pickings appear slim. Assuming Seattle sticks with Johnson and Moore, fantasy owners should be rooting for Moore to grab the starting gig.

Remember “Scott Kazmir, Power Pitcher?” The diminutive lefty, stolen from the New York Mets in an infamous July 2004 deal for Victor Zambrano, established himself as one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the majors.

Sure, his control left something to be desired. But many sins can be forgiven when a southpaw in his early twenties boasts low-to-mid-90’s velocity with a strikeout rate nearing ten batters per nine frames (see Kershaw, Clayton).

After posting FIP’s of 3.76, 3.36 and 3.45 between 2005 and 2007, Kazmir appeared to take a step back in 2008. Sidelined with an elbow injury until early May, the 6-foot lefty wasn’t the same hurler we had become accustomed to.

His K rate remained high (9.81). But, his walk rate increased and his groundball rate plummeted from the low-40’s to just 31 percent. Throwing his heater three-quarters of the time and nearly scrapping his slider, Kazmir coughed up 1.36 homers per nine innings. His FIP was a mild 4.37.

In 2009, Kazmir has cut his walk rate to 3.67 per nine innings (4.14 in 2008). However, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Scott has registered just 7.15 K/9, a far cry from his career mark of 9.31 K/9.

Kazmir’s fastball (coming in at a career-low 91.1 MPH) hasn’t been the same plus this season. His heater was worth +0.55, +0.54 and +0.85 runs per 100 pitches from 2006-2008, but the pitch has been exactly average in 2009 (0.0 per 100 pitches). Kazmir has mixed in his slider more often (21.1%, compared to 9.6% in 2008), but it has been nothing special at -0.29 runs per 100 tosses. Only his 79 MPH changeup has been above-average, though just slightly (+0.09).

The 25 year-old’s diminished stuff is highlighted by his contact rates. On pitches within the strike zone, opposing batters have made contact 86.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate of Kazmir’s career, and comfortably above his career 84 percent mark.

However, the biggest change, by far, is Kazmir’s rate of contact on pitches outside of the zone. When he was whiffing nearly 10 hitters per nine innings, Kazmir posted O-Contact rates well below the major league average. This year, hitters aren’t getting fooled at all:

Kazmir’s O-Contact Rates, 2005-2009:

2005

Kazmir: 49.2
MLB Avg: 51.8

2006

Kazmir: 42.8
MLB Avg: 57.4

2007

Kazmir: 49.5
MLB Avg: 60.8

2008

Kazmir: 58.5
MLB Avg: 61.7

2009

Kazmir: 70.5
MLB Avg: 61.8

When Kazmir tosses a pitch off the plate in hopes of getting a whiff, hitters are making a ton of contact. His swinging strike percentage, mostly in the 11-12% range during his career, is just slightly over 8 percent in 2009 ( right around the MLB average of 7.8% for starters).

Want another indication that Kazmir is struggling to put batters away? Take his performance with two strikes on the batter. Baseball-Reference offers a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, less than 100 is above-average for the pitcher, greater than 100 is below-average for the hurler). Kazmir’s sOPS+ with two strikes is 114 in 2009 (14 percent worse than the league average). His sOPS+ with two strikes was 84 in 2005, 85 in 2006, 69 in 2007 and 82 in 2008.

Kazmir has kept the fly balls as well, with a 33.8 GB%. He allowed nearly a homer per nine innings in ’09 (0.98 HR/9), despite a HR/FB rate well below the league average (7.3%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB percentage) is an ugly 5.06.

Scott is signed through 2011, with a club option for the 2012 campaign. He’ll make a total of $20M over the 2010 and 2011 seasons, with a $13.5M option for 2012.

If he rebounds, he will be well worth the cash. But Kazmir has been an average starter for two years running. If he’s a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher, then he’s basically being paid what he’s worth. That would mean that Rays made out splendidly in Augusts’ swap with the Angels, parting with a declining starter being paid a market-value salary while picking up three decent prospects in Alexander Torres, Matt Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez.

Fantasy owners should approach Kazmir cautiously heading into 2010. He’s not the same dominant starter these days.

At an age when most young hurlers are hopping a Greyhound bus from Inland Empire to Rancho Cucamonga, Clayton Kershaw is starting pivotal playoff games for a Dodgers club seeking its first World Series title since, well, Clayton was born.

The fifth inning of Kershaw’s NLCS game one start highlighted that he is still in the nascent stages of his career. The 6-3 power lefty did walk 4.8 batters per nine innings during the regular season, with a 55.6 first-pitch strike percentage (58.2% MLB average).

Yet despite those occasional bumpy moments, Kershaw has proven capable of quashing opposing lineups. He punched out 9.74 hitters per nine frames, the 7th-highest rate among starters tossing 150+ innings.

Kershaw was extremely tough to hit on pitches within the zone, with an 83.3 Z-Contact% that ranked 6th among starters (the MLB average is 87.8%). And when batters were fortunate enough to make contact, they often popped the ball up, with a 13.5 infield/fly ball percentage (7th among starters).

Most fans know Kershaw for two things: searing fastball velocity and a slow curveball so dastardly, Vin Scully dubbed it Public Enemy Number One.

To be sure, both of those pitches are electric. Kershaw’s run values are a little inflated due to a very low HR/FB rate (4.1%)- some balls that probably should have left yard stayed in, boosting those linear values. But still, his 94 MPH gas was worth +1.48 runs per 100 pitches (third best in baseball). That 73 MPH yellow hammer was similarly effective, with a +1.54 mark. Clayton would rather not talk about his seldom-used changeup, though (-1.78).

But did you know that, since June, Kershaw has integrated yet another quality breaking pitch into his arsenal? Take a look at his pitch usage by month:

April

Fastball (FB) 79%, Curveball (CB) 15%, Changeup (CH) 6%

May

FB 73%, CB 20%, CH 7%

June

FB 72%, Slider (SL) 8%, CB 15%, CH 5%

July

FB 69%, SL 10%, CB 18%, CH 3%

August

FB 67%, SL 11%, CB 20%, CH 2%

September/October

FB 72%, SL 16%, CB 11%, CH 1%

Gradually, Kershaw has added more 81 MPH sliders into the mix. The pitch is fascinating, in terms of how it moves in relation to his world famous curveball. Looking at Clayton’s Pitch F/X data, we see that his new toy breaks away from lefties (in to righties) an average of 4.8 inches. Kershaw’s curveball has similar horizontal movement, breaking away from southpaws 4.1 inches. That curve, of course, has plenty of vertical “drop”, falling 6.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin.

Kershaw’s slider creates an interesting dynamic for hitters. They see a big, bending breaker coming toward the plate, but which is it? As an example of how difficult finding that answer might be, here are Kershaw’s release and movement charts from his 10/3 start against the Rockies (his last regular-season start):

Release Point:

Movement:

In this start, Kershaw’s release gave away nothing to the opposition. And, you can see how much the slider and curve mirror each other in terms of horizontal break. Looking at this another way, here’s Clayton’s flight path chart for October, courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool:

This is a bird’s-eye view of Kershaw’s pitches as they head toward home plate. The flight path of the slider and the curve overlap. Same release point. Same flight path. The poor batter probably won’t know what’s coming until it’s too late.

Overall, Kershaw’s slider was worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches during the regular season. And, as Somers’ amazing tool shows, the pitch has become an even bigger part of Clayton’s arsenal in the playoffs. Kershaw has gone to the slider 27 percent of the time in the NLDS and NLCS, throwing it for a strike almost 65 percent of the time.

I guess the only question left is, what will Vin Scully call this vicious breaking ball?

Last November, the Colorado Rockies shipped franchise cornerstone Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s for lefty starter Greg Smith, reliever Huston Street and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

Smith (sidelined for most of the 2009 season with shoulder problems) was more of a throw-in, a back-of-the-rotation option whose peripherals were uninspiring. Street was certainly a stalwart in the ‘pen this year, with a 2.93 FIP. But the big prize in the deal was Gonzalez. Ultimately, the lefty-hitting Venezuelan would determine whether the deal worked out in Colorado’s favor.

Shortly after the swap, I took a gander at CarGo’s minor league track record and early scuffles in Oakland. The former D-Backs prospect possessed the power-speed combo to be a major component in two blockbuster deals (he was also involved in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal). Yet, he rarely worked the count, and he did benefit from cozy hitting environs in Arizona’s farm system. I came to the following conclusion:

“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”

One year later, Gonzalez appears to have taken steps toward becoming that championship-caliber player. The obvious caveat here is Coors Field. Humidor or not, the park inflates offense like no other venue in the majors. But even accounting for the Rocky Mountain assist, Gonzalez posted +9.8 Batting Runs in 2009, despite not getting a call-up until June and not really getting everyday AB’s until late in the year.

Opening the season at AAA Colorado Springs, Gonzalez punished the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA. Colorado Springs is also a hitter’s paradise, but Gonzalez beat the seams off the ball for a .292 ISO. Perhaps more importantly, he displayed a more reserved approach at the plate. Gonzalez drew a walk in 10.3% of his PA, while punching out 16.7%.

In Colorado, CarGo did a decent job of mending his hack-tastic ways. Gonzalez walked 9.2 percent of the time, increasing his P/PA seen from 3.4 in 2008 to 3.7 in 2009.

The 24 year-old didn’t suddenly morph into some Helton-like Zen master of plate discipline, but he made progress. Gonzalez jumped at 32.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone with the A’s in ’08, but lowered that mark to 30.6 percent with the Rockies (25.1% MLB average).

His first-pitch strike percentage (the rate at which the batter puts the ball in play on the first pitch or gets behind in the count 0-and-1) fell from 60.8% in 2008 to 58% this past year, right around the big league average. When Carlos took a cut at a pitch within the zone, he connected more often. His Z-Contact% rose from 86.7% with the A’s to 89.7% with the Rockies (87.8% MLB average).

With better strike-zone judgment and the best hitting environment in baseball at his disposal, Gonzalez batted .284/.353/.525 in 317 PA, with a .241 ISO. Happily, CarGo also added 16 steals in 20 attempts. The base thievery wasn’t really expected, given his poor 65% success rate in the minors.

It’s too early to say that Gonzalez is on the path to stardom, but he made strides toward becoming a more complete player in 2009. We knew that he could sting the baseball, but it was imperative that he lay off more junk pitches off the plate. He started to do that this year. With a vastly improved bat and stellar defense (+8 UZR/150), Gonzalez was worth 2.3 Wins Above Replacement in part-time duty. In parting with one organizational building block, the Rockies may have acquired another.

The 2009 post-season surely ended on a sour note for the St. Louis Cardinals, swept in the NLDS by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On a happier note, the Cardinals boast an enviable collection of top-shelf talent. There’s that Pujols fellow, of course. But Yadier Molina’s decent bat for the catcher position led a 3.4 WAR season. SS Brendan Ryan might not cause opposing pitchers to lose much sleep, but his slick glove work led to a 3.2 WAR campaign (does anyone else think that he looks like Super Mario with that red cap and bushy mustache?) On the bump, Adam Wainwright (5.7 WAR) and Chris Carpenter (5.6 WAR) form a one-two punch few can match.

Though he’s still rough around the edges, CF Colby Rasmus has the talent to join that group. Playing most of the year as a 22 year-old, the rangy rookie compiled 2.3 WAR.

The 28th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft, Rasmus was part of an absurdly deep class of prep outfielders that year. Other first-round fly catchers from 2005 include Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce.

Rasmus raced through the system, reaching the AA Texas League by age 20 in 2007. The 6-2 lefty hit plenty of homers for Springfield, belting 29 big-flys and posting a monstrous .275/.381/.551 line in 556 PA. Colby showed off his broad skill set, working the count (12.9 BB%), hitting for power (.275 ISO), swiping bags efficiently (18 SB, 3 CS) and earning rave reviews for his work in center field.

In its 2008 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America named Rasmus as a consensus top-10 prospect. Praising Rasmus’ “smooth, balanced swing that packs plenty of punch”, BA claimed he had the “head-turning ability of a potential big league all-star.”

Colby entered the 2008 season with considerable fanfare, but he stumbled for the first time in his career at AAA Memphis. Rasmus got off to a sluggish start at the plate, and just when he was starting to make pitchers pay, he sprained his left knee in July on a check swing.

Overall, St. Louis’ prized prospect batted .251/.346/.396 in 387 PA. Rasmus remained disciplined, drawing a walk in 12.9% of his PA again, while still punching out a little more than 20 percent of the time. His extra-base pop suffered, however, with a .145 ISO. Colby stayed smart on the base paths, with 15 SB in 18 attempts. Baseball America remained a big fan, saying Rasmus “should be the first impact position player signed and developed by St. Louis since Albert Pujols.”

In 2009, Rasmus played his way into an everyday role with the N.L. Central Division champs. He hit .251/.307/.407 in 520 PA. Colby popped 16 homers with a .156 ISO, while playing an outstanding center field (+10.9 UZR/150).

Rasmus wasn’t especially patient at the plate, drawing walks at a 7.1 percent clip while whiffing an even 20 percent. Not bashful in terms of taking a cut at a pitch within the strike zone, Colby posted a 73.5 Z-Swing% (65.9% MLB average). That was one of the 20 highest rates among qualified batters. But, he wasn’t some unrestrained hacker, either, as he swung at 25.9 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (slightly above the 25.1% MLB average).

Colby’s biggest problem during his rookie year was those pesky southpaw pitchers. Fellow left-handers owned him to the tune of a .160/.219/.255 triple-slash in 115 PA.

Baseball-Reference offers a helpful stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. a 100 sOPS+ means the player was average in the split category. A figure above 100 indicates he was better than the league average, while a number under 100 indicates a below-average performance. Rasmus’ sOPS+ versus LHP was 35.

Of course, we’re dealing with an awfully small sample of PA against lefties. No bold conclusions should be taken from one year’s worth of platoon splits. Rasmus generally held his own against lefties in the minors, with a career .275/.371/.455 line vs. LHP.

Perhaps the most peculiar aspect of Colby’s rookie season was his stealing just three bases all year long. Though he never racked up massive SB totals, Rasmus holds a career 81.3 percent success rate in the minors. And, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Base Runs stat (definition here), Rasmus was the top base runner on the team and one of the 20 best in the majors. Let ’em loose, guys!

Rasmus has some kinks to work out in terms of working the count and hanging tough against lefty pitching, but he has the tools to become one of the most valuable properties in the game. Those in keeper leagues should have a white-knuckle grip on this guy, and he’s a strong breakout candidate for 2010.

In January of 2008, the Chicago White Sox picked up Nick Swisher from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for a prospect bounty including OF Ryan Sweeney, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and LHP Gio Gonzalez.

The Pale Hose figured they had acquired a valuable, young, cost-controlled player. After all, Swisher was just 27 heading into the ’08 season, having averaged nearly three Wins Above Replacement per season during his three big league campaigns. He had turned in back-to-back quality years at the dish, with wOBA’s of .368 in 2006 and .361 in 2007.

In May of 2007, Swish signed a 5-year, $26.75M pact with the A’s which also included a $10.25M club option for the 2012 season. The former Ohio State star looked to be a mainstay on the South Side, given the team-friendly nature of that deal.

Well, that was the plan, anyway. Just ten months later, the White Sox booted Swisher out of town. The switch-hitter posted an exasperating .325 wOBA in Chicago, losing playing time in August and September to Dewayne Wise(!) In November of ’08, the Sox unloaded Swisher on the Yankees (along with RHP Kanekoa Teixeira) for an underwhelming package of RHP’s Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez as well as utility man Wilson Betemit.

So, what exactly changed for Swisher between his Oakland and Chicago days? Not much. Last December, former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted:

“In other words, Swisher’s 2008 season, once adjusted for the bad luck he incurred, was exactly in line with his previous seasons. There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.”

Very little changed in Swisher’s plate discipline or batted ball profile between 2007 and 2008:

2007

15.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, 17.5 LD%, 0.81 GB/FB, 9.5 IF/FB%, 16.6 O-Swing%, 85.8 Z-Contact%

2008

14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%, 20.9 LD%, 0.78 GB/FB, 11.1 IF/FB%, 18.9 O-Swing%, 86.2 Z-Contact%

There are slight changes, but certainly nothing earth-shattering. Yet, Swisher’s BABIP plummeted from .308 in ’07 to .251 in ’08. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (based off research done by Chris Dutton and Bendix), Nick was terribly unlucky.

Swisher’s rate of HR’s, K’s SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders suggested that his BABIP should have been closer to the .300 range in 2008. That would obviously change his line dramatically. Even if those extra hits were all singles, Swisher’s triple-slash would rise from a mild .219/.332/.410 to .268/.381/.459.

With the Bronx Bombers in 2009, Swisher mashed to the tune of .249/.371/.498 in 607 PA, good for a career-best .375 wOBA. His BABIP did not return to the .300 range (he finished at .277), but that BABIP rebound and a boost in power (.249 ISO) made Swisher one of the best off-season pickups.

His patience and pop, coupled with average D, produced a 3.7 WAR season. Swisher is never going to have a shiny batting average, but his stout secondary skills (walks and power) make him an underrated contributor.

It’s not very often that one can say this about a Yankees acquisition, but swindling Swisher from the White Sox last fall was a thrifty move. New York bought low on a quality player, parting only with a future 5th starter, a decent relief prospect and a reserve infielder with platoon issues and no defensive home.

Swish made just $5.3M this year, while providing $16.5M worth of value. He’s under contract for a total of $15.75M over the 2010-2011 seasons. Even if he regresses back to the three WAR range, he would give $27M worth of production over that time period.

If you’re keeping score at home, that would mean Swisher offers the Yankees about $22.5M worth of surplus value from 2009-2011 (what his production is worth on the free agent market based on the $4.5M/WAR standard, minus his actual salary). And, he also has that reasonable option for the 2012 season.

During an off-season in which the Yankees spent more than the gross domestic product of Tonga (no, seriously), the club also added Swisher for a song. This is a great example of why it’s vital to not just take a cursory glance at a player’s numbers and come to a definite conclusion about his talents. Fantasy owners who did their homework picked up an offensive cog without coughing up a high draft pick.

On Tuesday evening, Detroit Tigers right-hander Rick Porcello will look to tame the Twins and pitch his club into a divisional series matchup against the leviathan otherwise known as the New York Yankees. Much has been written about the 20 year-old’s ascension from Seton Hall Prep to the Motor City in the blink of an eye. Just how has Porcello combated unrelenting American League line-ups as a 20 year-old? Let’s take a look.

Porcello, of course, spent very little time on the farm. The highly-touted 6-5 starter came with all the scouting accolades, but teams selecting at the top of the 2007 amateur draft shied away. The Tigers, at pick number 27, finally came calling, gambling that an agreement could be reached. Detroit eventually kept Porcello from becoming a North Carolina Tar Heel, dishing out a cool $3.58M bonus.

Making his pro debut in 2008, Porcello tossed 125 frames for Lakeland of the High-A Florida State League. In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America noted that Rick’s best offering was “a heavy two-seamer that averages 92 MPH and ranges up to 95, with boring action in on the hands of right handers.” That pitch was on full display in the FSL, as Porcello posted a 64.1% groundball rate. He also did a nice job of painting the black (2.38 BB/9), though his strikeout rate was less than anticipated for a premium prospect (5.18 K/9).

Baseball America offered some clues as to why that whiff rate was modest. He “shelved his slider to focus on his curveball”, and the Tigers “placed him on a 75-pitch limit for each start.”

In 2009, Porcello shot straight to the majors. Heading into his tilt with the Twins, Rick has racked up 165 frames in his rookie campaign. He has again burned worms at an impressive clip, inducing a grounder 54.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate in the A.L., and places fifth among all starters. Porcello has been stingy with the walks as well, issuing 2.73 BB/9.

In most cases, there’s a trade-off between grounders and punch outs; more of one usually entails less of the other. That has certainly been the story with Porcello. He has whiffed just 4.42 batters per nine frames, fourth-lowest among starters. Only Joel Pineiro, Nick Blackburn and John Lannan have fooled fewer batters on a per-inning basis.

The reason for the lack of swings and misses becomes apparent when one looks at Porcello’s pitch usage. Rick has relied upon a 91 MPH sinker about 77 percent of the time. True to the scouting reports, that pitch has excellent tailing action in on the hands of righty batters and is responsible for the hefty groundball rate.

But, as Harry Pavlidis showed earlier this summer, that sinker gets very few whiffs. Still, Porcello’s boring two-seamer has been worth +0.81 runs per 100 pitches this season.

Porcello does feature three other pitches: an 81 MPH slider (used about five percent of the time), 77 MPH curveball (eight percent) and an 81 MPH changeup (ten percent). None of those offerings are instilling much fear in opposing batters, though. Porcello’s slider comes in at -1.17 runs/100, with the curve worth -2.53 per 100 tosses. He hasn’t pulled the string especially well, either (-0.98).

Armed with one plus pitch and a three other seldom-used offerings in their nascent stages of development, Porcello has often had the ball put in play against him. His overall contact rate is 84.7% (80.5% MLB average), with opponents putting the bat on the ball 91 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone (87.8% MLB average).

It’s not especially surprising that Porcello, using a sinker nearly four out of five pitches, has generated so few K’s. As Dave Allen explained back in August, there is a positive relationship between the vertical movement of a fastball and its whiff rate (the higher in the zone, the more whiffs generated; the lower in the zone, the fewer whiffs gotten).

There is also an inverse relationship between vertical movement and groundball rate. In other words, a fastball thrown high in the strike zone is likely to generate more swings and misses, while generating fewer groundballs. By contrast, a fastball like Porcello’s, buried at the batter’s knees low in the zone, is going to garner a higher groundball rate but few whiffs.

At an age where most pitching prospects are in A-Ball attempting to refine their secondary stuff, Porcello has managed to keep his head above water in the DH league. But his FIP (4.81) is more indicative of his performance than his ERA (4.04). Porcello obviously has plenty of development time left, though, and has a strong base of skills to build upon.

With strong groundball tendencies and quality control, Rick doesn’t have to post obscene K rates to be a successful starter. Will Porcello become a different sort of pitcher in the years to come, mixing in more breaking balls and changeups? That would likely lead to more strikeouts, but may come at the expense of some of those grounders.

That’s a question for another day, though. For now, Porcello will look to get Twins batters to chop that sinker into the dirt often enough to clinch a playoff berth.

Florida Marlins righty Ricky Nolasco entered the 2009 season with some serious helium. The former Cubs prospect overcame an elbow injury that curtailed his 2007 campaign to post a breakout performance in 2008.

In 212.1 IP, Nolasco compiled a 3.77 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). The California native punched out 7.88 batters per nine innings, while also exhibiting razor-sharp control with 1.78 BB/9. Nolasco came equipped with a dizzying array of pitches, able to zip a solid low-90’s fastball by hitters, buckle knees with a low-80’s slider or mid-70’s curve or pull out the occasional low-80’s splitter. Ricky was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, providing the cost-conscious Fish with $16M in production for a dirt-cheap salary.

As the 2009 season wraps up, Nolasco’s surface stats would lead one to believe that he has been a bust. After all, his ERA is over five (5.06), and he was demoted to the minors in late May.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

If anything, the skills over which Nolasco has the most direct control have gotten stronger. Ricky has whiffed 9.49 hitters per nine frames, sandwiching him between Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw for 7th among all starting pitchers. Nolasco remains precise, too, with 2.14 BB/9. That’s in the top 20 for starters. His FIP is down to 3.35, ranking just behind Dan Haren and in front of Ubaldo Jimenez.

Nolasco’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped somewhat, from 63.6% in 2008 to 60.9% in 2009 (that’s still above the 58.2% MLB average). But he has induced more hacks on pitches out of the zone, with an O-Swing% increase from 28.6 in ’08 to 29.3 in ’09 (25.1% MLB average). His overall contact rate, 79.3% in 2008, is 78.2% this year (80.5% ML average). Based on his FIP, Nolasco has compiled four WAR this season, providing $18M worth of value for the Marlins.

So, why is there such a large discord between Nolasco’s ERA and his FIP? His BABIP sits at a lofty .336, third-highest among all starters. Florida’s fielders haven’t helped, ranking 22nd in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Ricky’s rate of stranding runners on base is also unusually low, at an even 61 percent (the average for starters tends to be around 70-72 percent). That’s the worst mark for a starter in the majors.

Ricky did give up a higher percentage of line drives this season (21.8%, 20.3% career average). But, it’s difficult to say with any degree of certainty whether that’s a legitimate increase or just the product of official scoring bias.

Line drives don’t just “exist”-they’re a subjective judgment by the official scorer. And, as Brian Cartwright displayed last off-season, the rate at which line drives are coded can vary dramatically by stadium. It wouldn’t seem as though opponents are getting good wood on Nolasco, given the strength of his peripherals and plate discipline numbers.

And the extremely low stand rate? Nolasco’s career rate at stranding runners on base in 67.9 percent. That’s below the aforementioned average for starters. But even if Ricky struggles a little with runners on base, his 2009 line with ducks on the pond involves some poor luck:

Nolasco with men on base:

2006: 2.27 K/BB, .355 BABIP
2008: 2.74 K/BB, .268 BABIP
2009: 2.31 K/BB, .360 BABIP

He hasn’t performed drastically different with runners on, but his BABIP in such situations has fluctuated greatly.

In all likelihood, Nolasco’s sky-high BABIP will fall, and his strand rate will return from the nether regions. Despite the lousy-looking ERA, Ricky ranked among some of the best in the business in terms of fooling batters and limiting the free passes. Don’t hesitate to draft him in 2010-there’s nothing wrong with Nolasco.

On July 1st, the following scrolled across the transaction wire:

Pittsburgh Pirates purchased the contract of outfielder Garrett Jones from Indianapolis of the International League (AAA).

Few, if any, in the baseball community so much as batted an eye. After all, Jones was a 28 year-old minor league slugger, a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum who drifted through the Atlanta and Minnesota systems without distinguishing himself. He was a warm body for a team in transition.

As the 2009 season comes to a close, however, Jones has certainly caught the attention of Pirates fans looking to divert their attention from the whole…”longest consecutive losing season streak in professional sports” thing. Splitting time between the outfield corners and first base, Mr. Jones has crushed the horsehide to the tune of .297/.374/.581 in 345 plate appearances.

In his first extended look in the majors, Garrett has walked in 11.4 percent of his PA, with a mammoth .284 Isolated Power. Among batters with at least 300 trips to the plate, Jones places 7th in ISO. His whopping .402 wOBA puts him between Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez. He has even swiped 10 bags in 12 tries.

Jones has jolted fastballs like few others, with a run value of +2.26 per 100 pitches seen. That’s 10th among big league batters. The 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter actually has a positive value against all pitches seen on a regular basis: +0.19 vs. sliders, +1.23 vs. curveballs and +1.63 vs. changeups.

So, Jones has been a beast this summer. But the question is, where in the name of Shane Spencer did this outburst come from?

A 14th-round pick by the Braves in the 1999 amateur draft, Jones had a completely nondescript minor league track record entering this season. He spent three years in Rookie Ball, slugging .330. A-Ball went little better, with Jones posting OPS figures well under .700.

Garrett finally hit with authority in AA as a 23-year old in 2004 (.311/.356/.593), but any prospect momentum screeched to a halt with a lousy .244/.297/.445 line at AAA the following season. Jones spent five seasons at the AAA level, and none of them translated well to the highest level:

(major league equivalencies from Minor League Splits)

2005
Actual:.244/.297/.445
MLE: .213/.253/.376

2006
Actual: .238/.302/.430
MLE: .211/.265/.366

2007
Actual: .280/.334/.473
MLE: .242/.286/.395

2008
Actual: .279/.337/.484
MLE: .245/.291/.412

2009
Actual: .307/.348/.502
MLE:. 259/.291/.408

Despite spending half of a decade in AAA, Jones never dominated the level. His best work came recently, but those equivalencies basically painted him as Mike Jacobs circa 2009. Unless you’re Dayton Moore, that’s not very appealing.

Jones’ 2009 projections from CHONE, Oliver and ZiPS were similarly lukewarm:

CHONE: .259/.318/.451
Oliver: .242/.324/.398
ZiPS: .254/.304/.427

Where does Garret go from here? Because of his thunderous performance since his call-up, Jones is almost assured to enter the 2010 season with a clear shot at playing time. There’s little doubt that he won’t sustain this level of play. We have three months of out-of-this-world hitting, weighed against a decade’s worth of mundane numbers.

Fantasy owners would be best served by remaining skeptical. Not that Jones should be ignored, but his work this past summer eclipses his previous track record by a shocking margin. The best-case scenario would probably entail Jones retaining some of the gains he made in terms of working the count, while popping a healthy number of extra-base hits.

Given his larger body of work, the odds aren’t very good that Mr. Jones is gonna be a big star. But the Pirates would settle for a cheap, decent bat who can shift between first and the outfield corners.

Plucked out of the University of Illinois at Chicago in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft, Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson has surpassed all expectations.

Since reaching the big leagues for good in 2006, Granderson has blended a keen batting eye, surprising pop and fleet feet to become one of the most productive players patrolling the middle garden. The lefty batter posted 3.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2006, +7.4 in 2007, +3.8 in 2008, and +2.9 in 2009 with a few games yet to be played.

Granderson enjoyed a banner year in 2007, compiling a .395 wOBA which lead all center fielders. That performance came with a .362 BABIP and a stunning 23 triples, though, so it wouldn’t have been reasonable to expect a repeat performance the following season. Curtis was still highly productive in 2008, however. With his BABIP down to .317, Granderson posted a .374 wOBA. Only Josh Hamilton, Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran boasted better offensive numbers.

In 2009, though? Granderson appears to be in the midst of a disappointing campaign. Curtis batted .280/.365/.494 in ’08, but he’s down to .246/.326/.445 this year, with a .337 wOBA. What gives? What’s different in 2009?

Evidently, not much. Take a look at some of Granderson’s key offensive barometers from 2008 and 2009:

Walk rate: 11.4 BB% in ’08, 10.4 BB% in ’09
K rate: 20.1 K% in ’08, 22.8 K% in ’09
Isolated Power (SLG%-BAVG): .213 in ’08, .199 in ’09
Outside Swing% (MLB avg. is about 25%): 19.8% in ’08, 20.1% in ’09
Contact% (MLB avg. is about 81%): 79.6% in ’08, 80.1% in ’09

Granderson has walked slightly less while punching out a little more, popping a couple fewer extra base hits as well. But there’s nothing here that would portend to a 37-point dip in wOBA.

What’s the problem, then? Granderson’s BABIP, as mentioned before, was .317 in 2008. In 2009, that figure has fallen all the way to .276.

It would be easy to simply declare, “he’s been unlucky” and move on. But thanks to some outstanding work done by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix on what factors influence BABIP for hitters, we can go beyond such a cursory statement.

For a while, most analysts attempting to find a batter’s expected BABIP would used a formula like “line drive percentage + .120.” The premise makes some sense, as line drives fall for a hit about 74 percent of the time.

However, Dutton and Bendix included many more variables in their XBABIP study. Taking items such as line drive rate, batting eye (BB/K ratio), speed score and pitches per PA into consideration, Dutton and Bendix’s XBABIP model yielded very promising results. Their study indicated a 59 percent correlation between actual and predicted BABIP, compared to just 18 percent for the “LD + .120” concept.

Luckily, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times came out with a simple XBABIP tool based on Dutton and Bendix’s work. The tool takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR’s, K’s, SB’s, LD%, flyballs, pop ups and grounders and spits out an expected BABIP.

According to the XBABIP tool, Granderson’s BABIP should be around .303. That’s somewhat lower than his 2008 figure, because Curtis has hit more flyballs (which have a lower BABIP) and he has popped out more often (pop ups are near automatic outs):

2008: 40.7 FB%, 5.0 infield/fly ball%
2009: 48.8 FB%, 12.2 infield/fly ball%

Even so, Granderson’s line would be .273/.353/.472 in 2009 if his BABIP were .303 instead of .276 (and that’s assuming all additional hits were singles). That equates to a wOBA of about .369. Not quite at his 2008 level, but pretty close. As an additional bonus, Granderson has swiped 20 bags in 26 attempts this season, after limiting his running in ’08 (12 SB, 4 CS).

Granderson’s 2009 line is misleading. He had a career year in 2007, and has settled in as a .370 wOBA-type hitter over the past two seasons. Odds are, he’ll be undervalued on draft day heading into the 2010 season. Granderson is still the same all-around threat.