Since he was taken in the supplemental first round of the 2004 draft, Gio Gonzalez has alternately enticed and unnerved major league talent evaluators.

If you squint a little bit, the left-hander has the makings of a top-tier starter. Gonzalez cooks in the low-90’s with his fastball, boasts a big-breaking high-70’s curveball and misses more bats than just about any hurler in the game.

Yet, the 24 year-old has already been traded three times-twice by the White Sox! As good as Gio can look when hitting the corners and garnering jelly-legged swings on that wicked curve, there are other days when he resembles an Oliver Perez/Nuke LaLoosh love child.

During his minor league career, Gonzalez managed to punch out a breathtaking 10.3 batters per nine frames, including 9.7 K/9 at AAA. Unfortunately, his walk rates were equally prodigious: 4.1 BB/9 career in the minors, and 4.6 BB/9 at the AAA level.

Over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, Gio made 30 appearances (24 starts) with the Athletics. The results probably made Oakland pitching coach Curt Young weep: a 6.24 ERA in 132.2 frames. Gonzalez’s underlying numbers help explain why he’s so intriguing and aggravating to GM’s and fantasy players alike.

Gio has whiffed 9.7 batters per nine frames in the show. Opponents have made contact against him 76 percent of the time (80-81% MLB average), a rate commensurate with some of baseball’s top-end starters.

Gonzalez’s trademark curveball has exceptional movement . His yellow hammer breaks away from lefties (in toward righties) about six inches (4 inch MLB average for left-handers). It also drops in the zone 9-10 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin, obliterating the 5 inch average for MLB lefties. Talk about two-plane break.

Of course, all of those swings and misses come at a price. Gonzalez has issued a whopping 5.49 BB/9 in the majors. Gio has located just 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, well below the 49-50% MLB average. His first-pitch strike percentage is just 54.2% (58% MLB average).

Gonzalez has been the victim of some poor luck on balls put in play during his short major league stay, with a .345 BABIP between 2008 and 2009. His home run/fly ball rate has also been extremely high, at 16.4% (the MLB average for pitchers is around 11-12 percent). Gonzalez’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA, based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 4.43 over the 2008-2009 period.

It’s difficult to say what kind of pitcher Gonzalez will become as he gains more experience in the big leagues. We can dream of a day when he’ll still be whiffing bunches of batters, without the walks flowing as freely as Gatorade in the dugouts.

Granted, pitchers almost never make gains in one area without sacrificing in another. For that walk rate to go down, Gonzalez is going to have to toss more pitches around the plate. That means more contact and fewer K’s. But the trade-off would certainly be beneficial. Easier said than done, though.

With abysmal control, Gio has posted peripherals consistent with a mid-rotation starter. He’s far from a finished product, however, as his high-octane style has a way of jamming up the bases. Gonzalez is a nice target in A.L.-only leagues, if you can stomach the occasional 3-inning, 5 walk, “pass me the Tums” outing.

According to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez, the Chicago White Sox have come to terms with Andruw Jones on a one-year, $500K contract with $1M in possible incentives.

Jones famously fell of the face of the Earth after inking a two-year, $36.2M deal with the Dodgers prior to the 2008 season. His wOBA in L.A. was a macabre .234. In just 238 PA with the men in blue, Jones managed to post -17.9 Park Adjusted Batting Runs.

Forced to take a minor league deal from the Rangers before the 2009 season (the Dodgers paid him to go far, far away), Jones was essentially a league-average batter in Arlington.

In 331 PA, Andruw batted .214/.323/.459. His wOBA was .338. After adjusting for the hitter-friendly nature of The Ballpark in Arlington, Jones posted +1.5 Batting Runs. He worked the count well (13.8 BB%), while crushing fastballs for a +1.28 run value per 100 pitches. Off-speed stuff caught him flat-footed, however: -1.25 runs/100 vs. sliders, -0.65 vs. curveballs and -0.41 vs. changeups.

Jones had just a .224 BABIP in 2009. The gut reaction is to say “fluke!” But Andruw’s BABIP since 2005 is .248. His career BABIP is .279.

Why might that be? Well, Jones hits a lot of fly balls. Andruw’s 49.5 FB% in 2009 was 12th-highest among batters with 300 or more PA. While fly balls are obviously beneficial to a slugger like Jones, they do have a lower BABIP than grounders. Also, Andruw pops the ball up frequently. His IF/FB% was 13.3 in 2009. Pop ups are near automatic outs.

Odds are, the 32 year-old won’t continue to post a BABIP in the .220’s. But his batted ball profile and track record suggest that he probably won’t see that BABIP skyrocket, either.

Still, Jones constitutes a nice, low-cost investment for the White Sox. He still has quality secondary skills (walks and power), and he’s guaranteed next to nothing in terms of salary. Bill James’ projections forecast a .335 wOBA for Andruw in 2010, while CHONE spits out a less-optimistic .323 mark.

The MLB.com article quotes White Sox GM Kenny Williams:

“This is an opportunity to add a power bat to the roster while improving our outfield depth,” White Sox general manager Ken Williams said in a statement. “With the addition of Andruw, Mark Kotsay and Omar Vizquel, we feel our bench is taking shape to be a strong asset heading into the 2010 season.”

Clearly, Chicago is not anticipating giving everyday AB’s to Jones next year. As a DH, he would basically be replacement-level. But if you feel that Andruw could play, say, +5 run defense in an outfield corner (he has a superb track record and hasn’t embarrassed himself in limited time in ’08 and ’09), he could be a league-average starter.

Jones is worth tracking as spring training approaches. The White Sox are looking at him as a depth signing, but the club is currently without a right fielder. And LF Carlos Quentin, slowed by Plantar fasciitis in 2009, has a career -5.3 UZR/150 between the outfield corners.

Andruw could be a fall-back option if other RF candidates aren’t appealing or if the Pale Hose give Quentin more time at DH. If he gets enough playing time, Jones still has enough bat to stay relevant in A.L.-only leagues.

Since he got an everyday gig back in 1995, Chipper Jones has been an institution for the Atlanta Braves.

For a decade and a half, Larry Wayne Jones has scorched pitchers from both sides of the batter’s box. Chipper holds a career .404 wOBA, one point below the career marks of Hank Aaron , Duke Snider and Big Poison, Paul Waner.

Despite nagging aches and pains, Chipper has aged remarkably well. From 2006-2008, he compiled a .435 wOBA, remaining an on-base fiend capable of punishing pitches into the gaps and over the fence. In late March of 2009, the Braves came to terms with Jones on a three-year contract extension. The pact, covering the 2010-2012 seasons, will pay Chipper a total of $42M during his age 38-40 seasons.

On the heels of that extension, Jones turned in an offensive season quite mild by his lofty standards. He got off to a rousing start, but was a non-entity in August and September while battling groin, back and oblique injuries.

Overall, Chipper turned in a .354 wOBA, tied with his rookie campaign for his lowest full-season mark in the majors. Jones was patient as ever, drawing a walk in 17 percent of his PA and swinging at pitches out of the strike zone just 15.4 percent (25% MLB average).

His power, however, suffered:

Chipper crushed to the tune of .267 ISO in 2007 and a still-impressive .210 figure in 2008, but he dipped to a .166 ISO in 2009. That’s a bit above the .155 league average and .157 average for third basemen.

As you might have guessed from Chipper’s batting average dropping one hundred points from ’08 to ’09, his BABIP came down from its near-.390 mark in 2008:

Jones’s BABIP was .291 in 2009. Based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs, Chipper’s Expected BABIP was .330. Even assuming all hits were singles, that would take Chipper’s triple-slash line from .264/.388/.430 to .303/.427/.469. That comes out to a wOBA around .401.

Of course, one could play devil’s advocate here, too. Jones is going on 38 years old, and while he has managed to stay on the field, he’s just about always nursing some ailment.

Perhaps you feel that Chipper’s bat speed is waning. His run value against fastballs, nearly +2.5 runs/100 from 2006-2008, dipped to +0.16 in 2009. Because these run values are based on actual outcomes, Jones’s values are dinged somewhat from the aforementioned low BABIP. But there’s still decline there.

According to Hit Tracker Online, Chipper’s dingers didn’t have quite the same force as in years past. His average speed off the bat was down a bit, and the Standard Distance of his homers dropped a fair amount ( Standard Distance is the estimated distance a HR would travel after accounting for wind, temperature and altitude).

Chipper’s speed off the bat (SOB) and standard distance (SD), by year:

2007: 104.5 MPH SOB, 404.8 SD
2008: 104.1 MPH SOB, 407.4 SD
2009: 103 MPH SOB, 395.2 SD

It’s extremely difficult to project a player like Jones, given his health issues and his age. The numbers are a mixed bag. On one hand, Chipper appeared to be hit-unlucky in ’09. But one the other hand, there are signs that he didn’t have the same punch as in years past.

For 2010, Sean Smith’s CHONE system pegs Jones for a .280/.377/.472 line. That comes to a wOBA near .373, and strikes me as a reasonable compromise between Jones’s actual .354 wOBA in 2009 and the .400-type mark that his XBABIP suggested.

Jones certainly comes with risk, but odds are he’s not done at the dish. Perhaps his days as an offensive force are coming to a close, but he still has enough lumber to remain a quality fantasy option at the hot corner.

The Oakland Athletics added a former top prospect via minor league free agency, signing Dallas McPherson to compete for the club’s third base job.

Earlier this decade, McPherson was the pride of the Angels’ farm system. A 6-4, 230 pound lefty batter with mammoth power, Dallas has destroyed minor league pitching for a career .296/.384/.586 line. In more than 1,100 PA at the AAA level, McPherson owns a .280/.360/.635 triple-slash.

Unfortunately, injuries have taken a serious toll on his career. McPherson was sidelined following hip surgery in 2005 and missed considerable time in 2006 with a herniated disc in his back.

Those were only the beginning of his problems, however. McPherson underwent back surgery in 2007, wiping away his entire season.

As a member of the Marlins organization in 2008, McPherson terrorized the Pacific Coast League. He compiled an eye-popping .275/.379/.618 line in 530 PA with Albuquerque. Dallas drew more walks than usual (14.5 BB%), while still whiffing at an alarming rate (37.5 K%).

However, Albuquerque is a hitter’s haven, and McPherson’s major league equivalent line was much less shiny. Per Minor League Splits, McPherson’s work at AAA in ’08 equated to a .201/.288/.410 MLB triple-slash .

Dallas inked a minor league deal with the Giants last off-season, but his chronic back issues sabotaged his season yet again. McPherson missed the entire 2009 campaign, going under the knife in July.

Now 29, McPherson still possesses scores of power. But he has been healthy just once in the past five years. In 399 career major league PA between the Angels and Marlins, McPherson holds a .245/.298/.458 line.

He has shown plenty of pop (.213 ISO), but little control of the zone (6.8 BB%, 34 K%). McPherson’s contact rate at the highest level is just 63.9%, compared to the 80-81% MLB average. L.A.’s second round pick in the 2001 draft has scorched fastballs (+1.12 runs/100 pitches), while flailing at anything that dips or darts as it reaches home plate (-1.0 vs. sliders, -1.07 vs. curveballs, -2.85 vs. changeups).

McPherson is worth keeping an eye on, as he could be a placeholder at the hot corner until Brett Wallace is ready (assuming Wallace can cut it at third, that is). However, it’s worth asking if McPherson can play a capable third these days, given all of his physical woes.

Is there a more frustrating starter in the game than Rich Harden?

Since he broke into the big leagues at age 21, Harden has compiled a 3.58 FIP, while punching out 9.35 batters per nine frames. The slim right-hander totes a searing four-seam fastball, a knee-weakening slider and a changeup making MLB hitters resemble beer league softball players in the second game of a double-header.

Unfortunately, any discussion of Harden’s immense talent includes the qualifier, “when healthy.” His DL history reads like a Tolstoy novel. Shoulder ailments have haunted Harden throughout his career. But you name it, and the soon-to-be 28 year-old has strained it. The latest entries into the file are a back injury that sidelined him in May, and shoulder fatigue that cut his September short.

Overall, Harden made 26 starts for the Cubs in 2009. His 4.09 ERA in 141 IP doesn’t look near as shiny as his Gibson-like 2.07 ERA in 148 innings between Oakland and Chicago in 2008. But there wasn’t near as much of a difference between those two campaigns as you might think.

Harden’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate) was 3.70 in 2009. In 2008? 3.70.

In 2008, Harden whiffed 11.01 hitters per nine innings. In 2009, he posted 10.91 K/9. He wasn’t as sharp painting the corners this past year, issuing 4.28 BB/9 compared to 3.71 BB/9 in 2008.

In ’08, The 6-1 righty posted a very low .265 BABIP on the season. Granted, Rich is an extreme fly ball pitcher (his 49% FB rate in 2008 was highest among starters tossing 140+ IP). Fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders, and Harden is adept at getting batters to pop the ball up. Over the past two seasons, he has the fourth-highest infield/fly ball rate among starters.

Those two factors combine to depress his BABIP more than that of most starters (his career BABIP is .284). But a mark in the mid-.260’s was bound to regress. In 2009, Harden’s BABIP climbed to .304.

Harden’s HR/FB rate also changed drastically between 2008 and 2009. In ’08, Rich gave up a dinger on just 6.5% of his fly balls. That was fifth-lowest among starters, and well below the typical 11-12% average for pitchers. In ’09, Harden’s HR/FB rate skyrocketed to 15.1% (third-highest among starters).

According to Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, Harden gave up nine “Just Enough” home runs in 2009. “Just Enough” homers are defined as “balls that clear the fence by less than 10 vertical feet” or balls that “landed less than one fence height past the fence.” In other words, Rich surrendered plenty of wall-scrapers. Expect to see fewer taters hit against Harden in 2010.

Harden benefitted from an abnormally high rate of stranding runners on base in 2008 as well. His 84.4 LOB% was the highest among starters. In ’09, Harden’s LOB% came back down to 74.3%, right around his career 74.9% mark.

Despite the massive gap in ERA, the difference between Rich Harden’s performance in 2008 and 2009 was largely superficial. He combined superb pitching with some fortuitous breaks in ’08, but then saw Lady Luck turn a cold shoulder to him in 2009. His skill-based numbers were very similar.

Entering 2010, fantasy owners are in much the same position as MLB GMs when it comes to evaluating Harden. How much are you willing to bet on his transient brilliance?

Harden strikes me as the ideal middle-round target. Yes, there are three things that you can guarantee in life: death, taxes and a Rich Harden DL stint. But 125-150 excellent innings from the free agent hurler may well be more valuable than 175-200 frames from a more mundane starter. There’s risk, to be sure, but snatching up a top-shelf talent at a reduced price is worth the trouble.

Within a three year period, San Francisco’s Pablo Sandoval transformed from a batter struggling to get the ball out of the infield in the Low-A South Atlantic League to an offensive force in the majors.

It’s hard to remember now, but a 19 year-old Sandoval hit a tepid.265/.309/.322 with Augusta back in 2006. He swatted just one homer in 438 AB, while walking about once a week (4.7 BB%). Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America didn’t include Pablo in San Francisco’s top 30 prospects list.

Since then, Sandoval has pummeled pitchers.

The switch-hitter turned in a .287/.312/.476 triple-slash in the High-A California League in 2007. There were still plenty of skeptics, however. Sandoval split his season between catcher and first base, but his bulky 5-11, 245 pound frame kept most scouts from envisioning him as anything more than a first baseman.

He made plenty of contact (13 K%) and posted a .190 ISO, but that power output came in a circuit that favors offense. And, Sandoval continued to display an alarming lack of plate discipline (3.8 BB%). BA still didn’t include Pablo in San Fran’s top 30 prior to 2008.

In ’08, Sandoval assaulted the Cal League and the AA Eastern League for a combined .350/.394/.578 line. He showcased unprecedented pop (.228 ISO), while punching out just 12.2% of the time. Pablo’s BABIP was an enormous .375, and he drew a free pass just 6.4%. But that sort of batting blitzkrieg from a guy just old enough to buy a drink tends to garner attention.

Sandoval reached San Francisco in August, and proceeded to hit .345/.357/.490 in 145 PA. He posted a .145 ISO, while whiffing just 9.7% of the time. Pablo made contact with 92.9% of pitches within the strike zone, compared to the 87.8% MLB average.

To say that Sandoval was a liberal swinger would be a massive understatement. Pablo took a cut at a jaw-dropping 53.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He was in a whole new tier of hackery. Sandoval’s O-Swing% dwarfed the competition. Among batters with 140+ PA in ’08, the closest competitor was Vladimir Guerrero, at 45.5%. When you make Vlad the Impaler look downright conservative by comparison, that’s saying something.

Sandoval entered 2009 as an intriguing fantasy option, given his position eligibility at catcher, first base and third base.

Pablo was in some respects a polarizing player, however. Those sanguine about his future saw a guy in his early twenties with superb hitting skills and plenty of thump. Others painted a more pessimistic picture, seeing a player headed for the low end of the defensive spectrum with limited strike-zone plate discipline. Maybe he was just a switch-hitting Randall Simon.

In 2009, Sandoval silenced his critics. In 633 PA, Kung Fu Panda creamed pitchers for a .396 wOBA and a .330/.387/.556 line. Spending most of his time at third base, Pablo compiled +34.9 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, ranking 20th among all batters.

Sandoval slugged 25 homers, with a robust .226 ISO. He obliterated fastballs (+1.60 runs per 100 pitches), curveballs (+3.14) and changeups (+3.78), while being a mere mortal against sliders (-0.53).

While Pablo was far from being some beacon of discipline at the dish, he did show modest improvement in working the count.

As you might expect, opposing pitchers saw no reason to give Sandoval many pitches in the zone. Just 40.5% of Sandoval’s pitches seen crossed over the plate, the lowest rate in the majors by far (Kendry Morales had the second-lowest Zone%, at 43.7). While Pablo still lunged at outside offerings often, he did lower his O-Swing% to 41.5.

To be sure, San Francisco’s paucity of other offensive threats had something to do with Sandoval’s walk rate going from 2.7% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2009. Pablo was issued 13 intentional free passes this past year. His unintentional walk rate did climb from 1.9% in ’08 to 6.2% in ’09, though. Again, baby steps.

Sandoval has a career .356 BABIP at the big league level. Using the Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get an XBABIP of .316.

While we’re only dealing with 700-some AB’s here, that would make Sandoval more of a .290-.300 hitter going forward, as opposed to the .330-type guy on display so far. Given the additional power Pablo displayed in ’09, as well as his modest strides in controlling the zone, I think he’s a good bet to eclipse .300.

Sean Smith’s CHONE projections for the 2010 season are out. CHONE has Pablo batting .312/.356/.502 next year, which equates to a wOBA of about .373.

While it’s wise to expect some regression from Sandoval in 2010, he’ll still be a highly valuable fantasy option. He won’t be eligible at catcher anymore (just three starts in ’09), but Sandoval will still qualify at both infield corners. Just 23 years old, Kung Fu Panda is here to stay as an offensive threat.

One year after capturing the N.L. Central division crown by a sizeable margin, the Chicago Cubs limped to a deflating 83-78 mark in 2009. There were a number of reasons for the downturn, outside of the usual hocus-pocus about goats and an overeager fan with questionable taste in lime green turtlenecks.

Aramis Ramirez missed considerable time with a shoulder injury. Milton Bradley left his power stroke at the airport baggage claim. Alfonso Soriano turned in a sub-replacement-level campaign.

Another oft-cited reason for Chicago’s mild performance was the “sophomore slump” of catcher Geovany Soto. Geo crushed pitchers in 2008 for a .371 wOBA, displaying secondary skills that most backstops could only dream of.

But in 2009, the injury-wracked Soto posted a .310 wOBA. His bat declined by nearly two and a half wins: Soto compiled +17.1 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08, but he declined to -7.7 Batting Runs in ’09. Slowed by shoulder and oblique problems, Geovany lost playing time to Koyie Hill down the stretch. What gives? Was Soto a flash in the pan?

The answer would appear to be a resounding “no.”

Soto drew walks in 11.2% of his PA in 2008, while offering at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). In 2009, he walked 13.1%, while showing even more restraint on out-of-the-zone offerings (17.8 O-Swing%).

Geo’s K rate was largely unchanged. He punched out 24.5% in ’08, and 23.3% in ’09. Soto actually did a better job of making contact this past season. The soon-to-be 27 year-old put the bat on the ball 83.4% of the time on pitches within the zone in 2008. In ’09, his Z-Contact% climbed to 87.3% (87.8% MLB average).

Granted, Soto didn’t hit for as much power in 2009. But how many catchers not named “Piazza” can hold a near-.220 ISO year in and year out? We should have expected that number to regress in 2009. And it’s not like Soto was a weakling this past year: he had a .163 ISO.

So, Soto posted a higher walk rate, swung at fewer pitches off the plate, punched out less often, made more contact on in-zone pitches and still displayed plenty of pop for the position that he plays. How is it that his line tumbled so badly?

In 2008, Geovany had a .337 BABIP. In ’09, his BABIP fell off a cliff, down to .251.

As a catcher who runs like he has a piano strapped to his shoulders (2.0 career Speed Score, compared to the 5.0 MLB average), Soto won’t beat out many close plays at first. But his career minor league BABIP was .359, and his career BABIP in the majors is .310.

We can use Derek Carty’s Expected BABIP tool to get a better idea of Soto’s BABIP range, based upon his rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs.

Carty’s tool is based upon the excellent research of Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton. Their work found a positive relationship between BABIP and batter’s eye (BB/K rate), line drive percentage, Speed Score and P/PA. Dutton and Bendix’s XBABIP model does the best job of predicting future BABIP.

Based on his 2008 numbers, Soto’s XBABIP was .316, compared to his actual .337 mark. In 2009, Geovany’s XBABIP was .314. Remember, his actual BABIP was .251, a staggering 63 points lower. Even assuming all additional hits were singles, Soto’s line would have been .281/.384/.444 instead of his actual .218/.321/.381 triple-slash.

Soto had some extra bounces go his way in ’08, and then appeared to have terrible luck on balls put in play in 2009. His core skills, however, scarcely changed. His XBABIP numbers in 2008 and 2009 were nearly identical, and match up quite nicely with his career .310 BABIP.

Bill James’ projections peg Geo for a .273/.361/.469 line in 2010, good for a .362 wOBA. Sean Smith just released his CHONE 2010 projections, and he has Soto at .265/.354/.456. That equates to a wOBA around .355.

For reference, only six catchers with 300+ PA posted a wOBA better than .350 in 2009. The average wOBA at the position was .310.

Don’t forget Soto’s name on draft day. Some may have soured on him, but the Cubs backstop looks like a prime bounce-back candidate.

In 2008, OF Josh Hamilton finally turned in the kind of season that scouts envisioned when Tampa Bay selected him with the 1st overall pick in the 1999 amateur draft.

Shipped from the Reds to the Rangers in a December 2007 challenge trade for RHP Edinson Volquez, Hamilton crushed to the tune of a .385 wOBA. The lefty clubbed 32 home runs, while posting a .226 ISO and a HR/FB rate of 19.2%.

Sure, the Ballpark in Arlington played a part. According to ESPN’s park factors, Arlington has boosted run scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral ballpark from 2007-2009, while increasing HR production by 14 percent. But Hamilton was no ball park creation. He posted 29.7 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08. Even accounting for the hitter-happy tendencies of his home field, Hamilton was three wins above average with the bat.

Many fantasy players ponied up a primo pick on Hamilton entering 2009. Per Fantasy Gameday’s Average Draft Position and Scarcity Report compiled back in February, Hamilton’s ADP was ninth overall.

Unfortunately, Hamilton’s various aches and pains in ’09 had owners keeling over in anguish as well. The 28 year-old dealt with a laundry list of injuries, most notably a partially torn abdominal muscle requiring surgery in June and a pinched nerve in his lower back that effectively made him a spectator in September.

Getting just 365 PA during the season, Hamilton limped to a .321 wOBA. His ISO plunged to .158. Hamilton hit more fly balls than usual (41.8 percent, compared to about 33 percent from 2007-2008), but those extra flys died in the outfield pasture. His HR/FB rate dipped to 9.2%. Josh was below-average with the stick, with -3.6 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs.

Hamilton still slammed fastballs, hitting them for +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. But anything off-speed flummoxed him: -0.44 runs/100 versus sliders, -2.43 against curveballs and -3.19 versus changeups.

He was extremely aggressive during his banner 2008 campaign, swinging at 34.7% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (25% MLB average) while taking a cut at 80.6% of pitches within the zone (66% MLB average). But Hamilton was even less selective in 2009. He had a 36.1 O-Swing%, with an 85.7 Z-Swing%.

Hamilton swung at more pitches within the zone than any other batter with at least 350 PA (Pablo Sandoval was a distant second, at 82.9%). However, he made contact just 80 percent of the time that he offered at a pitch over the dish (88% MLB average).

His O-Swing% was 13th-highest among hitters with 350+ PA. With Hamilton anxious to get the lumber off his shoulder (he swung at the 9th-most pitches among all batters), he posted a 65.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). Josh got behind the pitcher 0-and-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch at the sixth-highest rate in the majors. His walk rate dipped from 9.3% to 6.7%.

It’s important to keep in mind that all of these numbers came in what amounts to slightly more than a half season’s worth of PA, while Hamilton was far less than 100 percent healthy. The lack of plate discipline is somewhat troubling. But if Josh can remain upright in 2010, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can bounce back.

Bill James 2010 projections are out, and Hamilton is tabbed for a .372 wOBA. While James’ projections tend to smile upon hitters more than most other systems, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more healthy Hamilton post a wOBA somewhere in the .360-.370 range.

Hamilton presents a dilemma for fantasy owners entering 2010. On one hand, he certainly won’t cost a premium draft pick, and a healthier Hamilton has the potential to yield a high return on investment. But on the other hand, should anyone really assume that he will be healthier? Hamilton has three major league seasons under his belt. He has missed big chunks of the year in two of those three seasons.

So, are you feeling lucky? Personally, I would expect Hamilton to hit in the .360-.370 wOBA range, while serving a DL stint or two that limits him to 400-some PA. What do you guys think?

By the time right-hander Edwin Jackson got shipped from Tampa Bay to Detroit for OF Matt Joyce, he had acquired the pejorative “thrower, not a pitcher” tag.

You’re likely familiar with Jackson’s story by now. By 19, he was in AA and whiffing over a batter per inning. Prior to the 2004 season, Baseball America named Jackson the best prospect in a Dodgers top 30 list that included the likes of Franklin Gutierrez, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and Russell Martin.

BA gushed that Jackson was “the complete package,” fitting “the profile of a top-of-the-line starting pitcher to a tee.” He beat Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday. Jackson looked poised to take LA by storm.

Except he didn’t. The next three years of Jackson’s career were essentially lost, as he got pummeled in AAA and the majors. He couldn’t find the strike zone with a GPS. Exasperated, L.A. jettisoned Jackson to Tampa Bay in January of ’06 for middle relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter. From 2004-2006, Edwin posted rates of 6.95 K/9 and 5.21 BB/9 between AAA Las Vegas and Durham. He was a mess.

Two seasons in Tampa’s rotation produced FIP’s of 4.90 and 4.88, respectively. After Jackson’s trade to the Tigers, we chronicled his tenure with the Rays. His ERA dropped dramatically from 2007 to 2008 (5.76 to 4.42), but that supposed progress seemed questionable. Jackson’s walk rate improved, but that came at the expense of considerably fewer K’s. His BABIP dipped 50 points from ’07 to ’08, thanks to historically improved D in Tampa.

One season later, Jackson’s ERA has again dipped by a big margin. In 2009, he registered a 3.62 ERA in 214 frames. With the Tigers facing a payroll crunch (I suppose that can happen when a club has a combined $65.5M tied up in Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson in 2010), Detroit is reportedly willing to listen to offers for Jackson. Is Edwin finally making good on the Baseball America’s bold prognostication?

The 26 year-old did make legitimate progress this past season. His K/BB ratio climbed from 1.4 to 2.3, as he raised his K rate to 6.77 per nine frames while issuing 2.94 BB/9. However, Jackson’s performance was more commensurate with a low-to-mid four’s ERA than his mid-three’s mark. He benefitted from a .281 BABIP, which helps explain the discord between his 3.62 ERA and 4.28 FIP.

Jackson’s searing mid-90’s fastball wasn’t all that special (-0.41 runs/100), but a biting upper-80’s slider (+1.89) made life difficult for opposing batters. He improved his outside-swing percentage from just 21.7% in 2008 to a healthy 27.2% in ’09 (25% MLB average).

As he reached unprecedented territory in terms of innings pitched, Jackson appeared to hit the wall:

April-June (6.98 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 3.25 FIP)

Fastball/100 pitches: +1.06
Slider/100 pitches: +2.0
Z-Contact%: 87.5
Zone%: 49.6
F-Strike%: 58.4

July-September (6.56 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.35 FIP)

Fastball/100: -1.75
Slider/100: 1.82
Z-Contact%: 88.7
Zone%: 46.8
F-Strike%: 50.8

MLB avg Z-Contact% is 87.8%
MLB avg Zone% is 49.3%
MLB avg F-Strike% is 58.2

Keep in mind that the run values for the fastball and slider are subject to things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In Jackson’s case, he had a an extremely low BABIP during the first three months, while giving up few homers. In the second half, his BABIP regressed, as did his HR/FB rate.

But even so, Jackson clearly had problems locating from July onward. His rate of pitches thrown within the strike zone fell three percentage points, and his first-pitch strike percentage plummeted from league-average territory to barely over 50 percent.

In all, Jackson provided 3.5 Wins Above Replacement for the Tigers, a performance worth nearly $16M on the open market. The former Dodger and Ray has two years of team control left.

Jackson clearly took a step forward in 2009, but it’s important not to get too caught up in his ace-like ERA in the first half or his punching bag act in the second half. The truth lies somewhere in between those two extremes. A top-of-the-line arm? Not at the present moment. But Jackson looks like an above-average starter.

Angels right-hander Ervin Santana entered the 2009 season with plenty of helium. In 2008, Santana bumped his fastball velocity to a career-high 94.4 MPH, with his wicked slider also popping the mitt harder than ever before at 84 MPH.

Santana was thoroughly dominant in ’08, whiffing 8.79 hitters per nine innings, while issuing only 1.93 BB/9. That combination of force and finesse led to a 3.30 FIP, which ranked 4th among A.L. starters.

Santana’s season wasn’t fluky. Sure, the fly-ball slanted starter gave up a homer on 8.9% of his fly balls, a rate that we would expect to regress more toward the 11-12% MLB average. But Ervin garnered plenty of outside swings, with a pared-down contact rate and an excellent first-pitch strike percentage.

His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on a pitcher’s K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) was 3.64. That also ranked 4th in the A.L. Any way you cut it, Ervin was among the top starters in the Junior Circuit.

Looking to lock up the talented righty before his salary exploded in arbitration, the Angels inked Santana to a 4-year, $30M extension prior to the 2009 season. The contract also included a $13M club option for 2013.

Just when it looked as though Santana would settle in as one of the better arms in the A.L., injuries took their toll. Ervin had a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. The sprain was not considered severe enough for Tommy John surgery to be the best course of action, so Santana took the rest and rehabilitation route.

Santana took the mound for the first time in 2009 on May 14th. He would make six starts before heading back to the DL, this time with a triceps injury.

He returned in July, and would go on to post a 5.03 ERA in 139.2 frames. Santana’s K rate dipped to 6.89. While his walk rate remained decent (3.03 BB/9), Ervin’s gopher-itis returned. He served up 1.55 HR/9. Santana’s 12.8 HR/FB% was perhaps a little high, but not obscenely so. Rather, the soon-to-be 27 year-old just gave up a ton of fly balls: his FB% was 42, one of the 20 highest rates among starters.

Santana’s XFIP climbed to 4.77. His BABIP (.320) was rather high, but Ervin clearly wasn’t the same fire-breathing starter. His percentage of contact within the strike zone was 91.2%, two percentage points above his career average and well above the 87.8% MLB average.

His slider remained nasty (+1.92 runs/100 pitches), but Santana’s fastball was thumped. The pitch has been a bit below-average during his career (-0.27 runs/100), but in 2009 it was shredded for -1.39 runs/100. Among starters tossing 130+ IP, Santana had the fifth-worst heater on a per-pitch basis.

Santana’s fastball took a roller coaster ride in 2009. The pitch gained velocity as the year progressed, with run values all over the map:

Santana’s fastball, by month

May: 90.7 MPH, -4.28 runs/100
June: 91.2 MPH, +1.11 runs/100
July: 92.2 MPH, -2.48 runs/100
Aug: 92.3 MPH, -0.16 runs/100
Sept/Oct: 93.3 MPH, -0.16 runs/100

His vaunted slider also gained a few ticks during the year, though the pitch remained effective all season:

Santana’s slider, by month

May: 81.1 MPH, +1.98 runs/100
June: 81.4 MPH, +3.99 runs/100
July: 82.3 MPH, +1.57 runs/100
Aug: 82 MPH +1.74 runs/100
Sept/Oct: 83.3 MPH, +1.96 runs/100

Santana’s increased fastball zip and performance offer some hope heading into the 2010 season. By the end of the year, Ervin’s fastball looked more like the ’08 version, as opposed to a batting practice pitch that hitters couldn’t wait to beat into submission.

Watch Santana’s health closely as spring training approaches. He’s unlikely to reach the heights of 2008, but he could be a bargain if his elbow problems are in the rearview mirror.