The St. Louis Cardinals have reportedly come to terms with RHP Brad Penny on a one-year, $7.5M deal, with $1.5M in possible incentives.

Following an injury-marred 2008 season with the Dodgers, Penny inked a one-year, $5M deal with the Red Sox last season. Brad ended up getting the boot in Boston in late August, then latched on with the Giants in September.

The oft-cited narrative for Penny’s ’09 campaign is this: he got eaten alive in the A.L., scurried back to the N.L. and then pitched well with San Francisco. However, his numbers suggest that he was neither the scrub of his Red Sox days nor the resurgent ace of his Giants tenure:

Penny’s 2009 peripherals, by team

Red Sox: 6.08 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB, .333 BABIP, 64.4 LOB%, 4.49 FIP
Giants: 4.32 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 2.22 K/BB, .211 BABIP, 81.8 LOB%, 4.35 FIP

Penny’s BABIP was 122 points higher with Boston. His rate of stranding runners on base was extremely low with the Red Sox, before going through the roof with San Francisco.

Overall, the 31 year-old posted a 4.46 FIP in 173.1 IP. That FIP was about four-tenths of a run below his actual 4.88 ERA. He whiffed 5.66 batters per nine innings, with 2.65 BB/9.

While Penny tosses a curveball, a splitter and the occasional slider, his success has always been predicated on his fastball. The 6-4, 240 pound Penny chucked his heater 71.1% of the time in 2009, one of the five highest rates among starters.

In ’08, he lost zip on his fastball as he dealt with persistent shoulder problems (92.4 MPH, tied for his lowest mark since 2002). But in ’09, Penny picked up that missing velocity (94 MPH). Take a look at his velocity chart. Penny was all over the map in 2008, but he steadily gained speed in 2009:

After posting a gruesome run value of -1.44 per 100 pitches in 2008, Penny’s fastball rebounded for a +0.22 runs/100 value this past season.

Penny and his rediscovered heater should enjoy New Busch Stadium, which is awfully kind to pitchers. Using ESPN’s park factor data, here are the three-year park factors for Busch III:

New Busch Stadium Park Factors, 2007-2009

Runs: 0.93
HR: 0.79
H: 0.99
2B: 0.92
3B: 0.91

(A park factor of 1.00 means that the park is neutral, favoring neither hitters nor pitchers. A park factor below one indicates a pitcher’s park, while a park factor over one means that the stadium favors hitters.)

Since 2007, Busch has suppressed run scoring by seven percent and homers by 21 percent, as compared to a neutral ballpark. The venue isn’t conducive to extra-base mayhem, either. Penny should come to love his new home digs.

While there’s certainly risk in signing a pitcher who essentially lost his whole 2008 season to a shoulder injury, Penny looks like a nice value for the Cardinals. CHONE projects Penny to post a 4.13 ERA in 159 innings, which would be worth 2.1 WAR. If a win costs roughly $4.4M on the free agent market, then the Cards would receive $9.2M in value from the club’s Penny pact.

Penny’s not a top-shelf arm. But as a good starter heading to a pitcher’s park in the N.L., his fantasy value just received a nice boost. It would be wise to pick up a Penny on draft day.

When a team loses 103 ball games, suffice it to say that club’s plans went up in flames that would make the Hindenburg pale in comparison.

In 2009, the Washington Nationals had a middle-of-the-pack offense (7th in the NL in wOBA) dragged down by wretched starting pitching (14th in FIP) and bullpen work (dead last in FIP).

When Washington led a game in the late innings, the ‘pen often made Jim Riggleman squirm. The Nats reliever with the highest Leverage Index (a measure of the importance of a pitcher’s appearance, based on the inning, score and base-out state) was Mike MacDougal.

In a fine example of why the save just doesn’t do a good job of measuring reliever performance, Mac was 20 for 21 in save ops during a season in which he walked more batters than he struck out (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9). Somewhere, Mike Williams is smiling.

Today, the Nationals picked up RHP Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL. For most teams, Bruney would try to settle into a mop-up role. But given the destitute state of Washington’s bullpen, Bruney could work his way into the later innings.

Injuries have taken a serious bite out of the former Diamondback and Yankee’s career. Bruney missed considerable time in 2008 with a Lis Franc sprain in his right foot, and his 2009 season was shortened by elbow problems.

Bruney misses bats (8.86 K/9 career), but his lack of control would make Daniel Cabrera blush. The 6-3 righty has issued 6.22 walks per nine innings in the big leagues.

28 in February, Bruney slings mid-90’s heat (94.6 MPH in 2009) while mixing in an upper-80’s slider. As you might expect from that gargantuan walk rate, he struggles to get ahead of hitters. Bruney’s career first-pitch strike percentage is 55.5%, well below the 58-59% MLB average. Batters have responded to the wildness by keeping the bat on the shoulder: opponents have chased Bruney’s stuff out of the strike zone just 20.2% of the time (25% MLB average).

The Washington Post quoted Riggleman as saying, “it’s undetermined who would be our closer.” The best reliever in Washington’s ‘pen is likely Tyler Clippard (9.99 K/9 in 2009), but the Nationals like to use the former starter in a multi-inning role.

Until Drew Storen ascends to the majors, MacDougal and Bruney could battle it out to see who can throw fewer pitches into the press box. Bruney certainly isn’t any fantasy owner’s ideal option, but he could pick up some saves in 2010.

For three years now, Brandon Wood has whacked AAA pitching and waited for an opening at the major league level. With Chone Figgins set to join the Mariners , it appears that Wood finally has a clean shot at winning a job with the Angels.

L.A.’s first-round pick in the 2003 amateur draft, Wood posted promising numbers as a teenager in Rookie Ball and in the Low-A Midwest League. But the 6-3 righty batter really burst onto the prospect scene in 2005, scorching the High-A California League.

The Cal League is known for offensive outbursts, but Wood’s .321/.383/.672 line at Rancho Cucamonga was still eye-popping. He clubbed 43 home runs and posted a .351 ISO, while playing shortstop, no less.

Wood walked in 8.1 percent of his PA, while punching out at a moderate 21.5% clip. Ranking Wood the best prospect in L.A.’s system, Baseball America predicted he would “develop into a perennial all-star infielder at either shortstop or third base.”

Promoted to the AA Texas League in 2006, Wood continued to crush while sticking at shortstop. He authored a .276/.355/.552 triple-slash in 552 PA. Wood’s whiff rate spiked (32.9 K%), though his secondary skills remained elite. He posted a 10.7 BB%, with a .276 ISO.

Since then, Wood has pulverized the Pacific Coast League:

Wood’s AAA numbers, 2007-2009

2007: .272/.338/.497, .224 ISO, 9.3 BB%, 27.5 K%
2008: .296/.375/.595, .299 ISO, 10.2 BB%, 26.3 K%
2009: .293/.353/.557, .264 ISO, 8.5 BB%, 20.7 K%

Wood has oscillated between shortstop and third base in AAA, splitting his time between the positions almost evenly in 2009.

In 1,383 career PA with Salt Lake, Wood owns a .287/.354/.547 line. Salt Lake is another excellent hitting environment. While I can’t find park factors for the 2009 season, this Baseball Think Factory thread shows that Spring Mobile Ballpark (home of the Bees) increased run scoring by six percent and home runs by seven percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008.

Here are Wood’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from ’07 to ’09, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007: .210/.263/.370
2008: .235/.299/.446
2009: .235/.283/.432

Penalizing Wood for hefty punch out rates and the high-octane hitting environment of Salt Lake, those MLE’s don’t paint an especially pretty picture.

From 2007 to 2009, Wood’s playing time with the Angels could best be described as scattered. In 236 trips to the plate, he has batted just .192/.222/.313. He has walked in 3% of his PA, while striking out 33 percent. Wood’s outside-swing percentage is near 37 percent (25% MLB average), with a 68.5% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).

Those numbers are ugly. But let’s not bury the guy for a couple hundred bad PA’s split over a three-year period. Now that third base appears to be his for the taking, what can Wood provide fantasy owners in 2010?

Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .242/.304/.434 line next season, which equates to a WOBA of about .319. The fans are a bit more optimistic, envisioning a .257/.315/.450 performance (.331 wOBA). Per Baseball Prospectus, Wood’s 2009 line in AAA translates to a .249/.308/.479 MLB triple-slash (.336 wOBA). For comparison, the average MLB third baseman hit .265/.335/.421 in 2009 (.332 wOBA).

Turning 25 in March, Wood doesn’t as a major league star any more. His low contact rate and average plate discipline make it difficult to envision an OBP above the big league average (.333 in 2009).

But don’t write him off as a bust, either. Wood possesses ample pop, and he’s not a total hacker at the plate. Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for Wood (which attempts to forecast a player’s top performance level in the majors) is .256/.319/.513 (.354 wOBA).

Wood’s star no longer shines brilliantly. However, he’s still capable of being a solid starter in the majors. That may be disappointing to those who hoped for a franchise player, but Wood is worth targeting in A.L.-only and keeper leagues.

On the surface, Chicago White Sox righty Gavin Floyd appeared to take a step back in 2009. After all, his ERA rose from 3.84 in 2008 to 4.06 this past year, with his win total dipping from 17 to 11 in the process.

Recently, ESPN fantasy analyst Tristan Cockcroft came out with a preliminary top 200 list for the 2010 season. Floyd checked in at number 200. He ranked below starters such as Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana.

Santana (elbow, triceps) and Matsuzaka (shoulder) lost big chunks of the ’09 season with injury problems. Lowe, meanwhile, pulled off an undesirable trifecta by missing fewer bats, walking more hitters and getting fewer ground balls than usual.

But Floyd? He’s coming off of his best season in the majors, win total and higher ERA aside.

This time last year, I examined Floyd’s 2008 season and came to a rather harsh conclusion:

Floyd’s prospect pedigree, superficial improvement in ERA and big win total might trick some people into believing that he has taken major strides toward becoming an ace-level starter. However, there just isn’t any evidence to suggest that’s really the case. Floyd is worth selecting in the later portion of most drafts, but don’t be the guy that takes him really high and then spends the season wondering why his ERA went up by a run.

Today, I can say that I was wrong about Floyd. And now, I fear that other analysts may be making a similar mistake in underestimating the former Phillies prospect.

In 2008, Floyd struck out 6.32 batters per nine innings. In ’09, his K rate climbed to 7.6 per nine frames. The increase appears to be supported by a drop in contact rate. Opposing batters made contact when swinging at Floyd’s pitches 81.7% of the time in ’08, but just 77.8% in ’09 (80-81% MLB average).

Also, his rate of swinging strikes spiked from 8.4% in ’08 to 9.9% this past year (7.8% average for starting pitchers). Floyd ranked 17th among starters in contact rate and 21st in swinging strike rate.

The soon-to-be 27 year-old also lowered his walk rate a bit, from 3.05 BB/9 in 2008 to 2.75 BB/9 in 2009. Floyd kept the ball on the ground more than in years past, with a 44.3 GB% (41.2% in ’08).

That’s not a massive increase, but it makes a difference. His home run/fly ball rate didn’t change all that much between 2008 (11.8%) and 2009 (11.2%), but his HR/9 figure fell from 1.31 to 0.98. Considering U.S. Cellular Field’s homer-happy tendencies (1.26 HR park factor from 2007-2009), getting a few more grounders can’t hurt.

For most of his major league career, Floyd struggled to retire lefty batters. In 2009, that wasn’t the case. Baseball-Reference keeps track of a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. An sOPS+ of 100 is league average. A score below 100 for a pitcher means that he was better than the league average, while a score above 100 means he did worse than average. Here are Floyd’s sOPS+ figures vs. lefties since 2006:

2006: 155
2007: 132
2008: 111
2009: 74

While one year of platoon data shouldn’t be taken as definitive proof that Floyd has conquered southpaw batters, there’s other evidence to suggest the improvement is legitimate.

Floyd has shifted his pitch selection in recent years, progressively tossing fewer low-90’s fastballs in favor of more mid-80’s sliders and cutters:

Floyd’s fastball, slider and cutter percentage, by year:

2007: 62.1 fastball (FA) percentage, 7.6 slider (SL) percentage, 6.7 cutter (FC) percentage
2008: 54.9 FA%, 9.2 SL%, 9.4 FC%
2009: 41.5 FA%, 16.3 SL%, 12.7 FC%

Floyd’s fastball has been scorched for a career run value of -0.92 per 100 pitches, making his decision to throw fewer heaters a wise one. His slider and cutter are lumped together on his Pitch Type Values section. Floyd’s Pitch F/X graphs (like this one from a 9/16 start vs. Seattle) show that they’re two distinct pitches, though:

The run value of his slider and cutter combined is +0.58 during the course of his big league career.

With more whiffs, fewer walks and the patented “Cooper Cutter” in his arsenal, Floyd was one of the better starters in the A.L. in 2009. Floyd’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA dropped from 4.61 in ’08 to 3.82 this past season. That placed 8th among A.L. starters.

Gavin Floyd might not be an elite starter, but he’s pretty darned good. Don’t let the win total fool you: Floyd was better than ever in 2009.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, free agent catcher Gregg Zaun signed a one-year, $1.9M pact with the Milwaukee Brewers. The deal includes a $2.25M option for the 2011 season ($250K buyout). Since the Rays offered Zaun (a type B free agent) arbitration, they’ll pick up a supplemental first-rounder.

The switch-hitting Zaun has taken ball four and popped an occasional base hit for 15 years now. The man once dubbed “The Practically Perfect Backup Catcher” will turn 39 years old in April, but he’s coming off of a productive 2009 campaign split between the Orioles and the Rays.

In 296 PA, Zaun posted a .334 wOBA. He continued to take his walks (10.6 BB%, 16.9 Outside-Swing%) and managed a .156 ISO. That might not quicken your pulse, but the average MLB catcher authored a .310 wOBA in 2009, with a .141 ISO.

Much like he did when he joined the O’s last year, Zaun will probably provide a helping hand as a rookie catcher breaks into the big leagues. The Brewers have two catching prospects at the upper levels of the farm system: Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome.

A 3rd round pick in the ’07 draft, Lucroy compiled a .267/.380/.418 line at AA Huntsville last season. The 23 year-old likely won’t be a huge power threat at the highest level. But he possesses exceptional strike-zone discipline, having taken a free pass 15.7% of the time at Huntsville in 2009 (his career minor league walk rate is 11.6 percent).

Salome, also 23, spent the ’09 campaign at AAA Nashville. His future is murky if he can’t remain behind the dish, however. Built like Barney Rubble at 5-7 and 200 pounds, Salome is considered a fringy defensive catcher. Baseball America said he “often gets his footwork messed up behind the plate.” If he can’t cut it at catcher, where does he play?

Salome has bashed to the tune of a .316/.364/.483 line in the minors, including a .286/.334/.413 performance at Nashville last year. Salome’s career BABIP on the farm is .354: not exactly what one would expect from a catcher about as tall as Yogi Berra.

Here’s how CHONE projects the Brew Crew’s catching troika in 2010:

Zaun: .228/.323/.353
Lucroy: .247/.335/.379
Salome: .270/.321/.408

CHONE sees Zaun’s numbers regressing to a wOBA around .303. Bill James gives us a .316 projection, and the fans (194 people have weighed in on Zaun already? Whoa) call for a .318 wOBA.

Zaun looks like an intelligent, low-cost addition for Milwaukee, if not a terribly exciting fantasy option. Lucroy and Salome both have enough offensive skills to be of interest down the road, though Salome will have to prove he has the defensive chops to remain at the position.

As a Chicago Cub, Jake Fox was a swing-from-the-heels slugger without a defensive home.

The 6-0, 210 pound Fox roamed around the diamond in the minors, logging time at catcher, first base, the outfield corners and third base.

But the Cubs are set at the infield corners with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Alfonso Soriano, he of bum wheels and -0.7 WAR in 2009 (only five years and $90M left on that contract!), will patrol left field. Kosuke Fukudome could shift back to right field in 2010 if Chicago adds a center fielder. And, Fox hasn’t really been taken seriously as a backstop.

As such, a trade to the A.L. seemed likely. Yesterday, Fox was indeed shipped to the Junior Circuit. The Oakland A’s acquired the 27 year-old righty batter and IF Aaron Miles for RHPs Jeff Gray and Ronny Morla and OF Matt Spencer.

Fox famously went all Babe Ruth on the Pacific Coast League in 2009, blasting 17 HR and posting a .409/.495/.841 line in 194 PA. The University of Michigan product holds a career .293/.357/.528 triple-slash in the minors, with a .235 ISO. Fox has mostly hacked and asked questions later, walking in 6.9% of his plate appearances.

With the Cubs in desperate need of some offensive thump, Fox logged 241 PA in the big leagues while shuffling between third base, the outfield corners, and first base (he logged a few innings at catcher, too). He compiled a .259/.311/.468 line, popping 11 homers with a .208 ISO.

Fox remained ultra-aggressive, chasing 37.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He also took a cut at 77.8% of in-zone offerings, compared to the 66% major league average. His 56.7% swing rate ranked in the top 10 in the majors among batters with 240+ PA. Fox walked in just 6.1% of his PA.

It’s not a good idea to put too much stock in less than half a season’s worth of pitch data, but Fox was greeted with plenty of off-speed stuff in 2009. Big league pitchers tossed him a fastball just 44.5% of the time, the lowest percentage among hitters with 240+ PA. Chicago’s 3rd round pick in the ’03 draft hammered heaters (+0.51 runs/100), while posting negative run values vs. curves, sliders and changeups.

Now in Oakland, Fox could figure into the competition for AB’s at DH and third base. Jack Cust, coming off of a .342 wOBA season, is a possible trade/non-tender candidate. Fox’s qualifications at third are suspect. But with Eric Chavez and Dallas McPherson his primary competition (assuming Brett Wallace opens the year in the minors), Fox could hold an advantage by simply being ambulatory.

For 2010, Bill James projects a whopping .284/.339/.546 line for Fox in limited playing time. That strikes me as wildly optimistic. CHONE’s forecast appears much more reasonable, with a projected .257/.316/.452 performance. Fox’s power and newfound opportunity in Oakland make him a more appealing fantasy target. Just don’t get too giddy over a couple dominant months in the cornfields of Iowa.

Baseball is a peculiar, charming sport. No matter how many scouting reports you scour or how many numbers you crunch, a player still occasionally comes out of nowhere and makes you say, “who is that?”

In 2009, Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee was one of those players to emerge from Quad-A anonymity.

A 10th-round pick of the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 draft, McGehee was McBoring during his minor league career:

McGehee’s career offensive numbers, by level:

Low-A: .272/.302/.391, 3.9 BB% 17.8 K%
High-A: .261/.310/.394, 6.7 BB%, 14.1 K%
Double-A: .286/.347/.422, 8.9 BB%, 14.7 K%
Triple-A: .282/.335/.410, 7.3 BB%, 14.7 K%

Sure, the righty batter’s numbers improved as he ascended toward the majors. He also dabbled at catcher, second base and first, while spending most of his time at the hot corner. But McGehee looked like a yawn-inspiring infield reserve.

In 2007, McGehee hit .273/.338/.422 in AA. That translated to a .226/.277/.333 triple-slash in the majors, according to Minor League Splits. In 2008, he turned in a .296/.345/.429 line in AAA. Casey’s work in Iowa equated to an unmighty .242/.282/.341 big league showing.

Following an ’08 season in which he got a cup of coffee with the Cubs, McGehee was claimed off waivers by the Brewers. While he wasn’t supposed to be anything more than a depth acquisition, McGehee saw extensive time with the Brew Crew in 2009.

In 394 PA, McGehee compiled a .301/.360/.499 line and a .367 wOBA. The 6-1, 195 pound batter, owner of a career .130 minor league ISO, posted a .197 ISO with Milwaukee. After walking in 7.4 percent of his PA on the farm, McGehee took ball four 8.7 percent in the majors.

He crushed fastballs (+0.82 runs/100 pitches) and changeups (+1.92), while finding big league breaking balls to be more of a challenge (-0.03 for the slider, -0.61 for the curveball). McGehee displayed a rather patient approach, swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone 20.1 percent of the time (25% MLB average).

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should cast a skeptical eye toward McGehee’s offensive feats. His rookie campaign with Milwaukee far surpassed anything that he accomplished in the minors. It’s possible that McGehee has made wholesale improvements in his game, but it would be wise to expect some regression.

The 26 year-old had a .335 BABIP in 2009, compared to a .305 Expected BABIP and a career .319 BABIP in the minors. Bill James foresees a .272/.328/.429 line next year, with a .332 wOBA. CHONE projects a .264/.326/.412 performance (.324 wOBA) in 2010.

McGehee dealt with a bum right knee toward the end of the 2009 season and had arthroscopic surgery in October. However, GM Doug Melvin said that the Cubs castoff “has taken the bull by the horns” in the competition for the third base job.

Lefty-hitting Mat Gamel figures to be the superior hitter (.356 projected wOBA from Bill James and .324 from CHONE). But his third base D is considered cover-your-eyes bad. McGehee rated poorly in a small sample of playing time in ’09, but his minor league numbers suggest he’s average with the leather.

Casey McGehee should be on radar screens, given Milwaukee’s apparent preference to open the season with him at third base. However, it’s worth remembering that Casey’s suddenly mighty bat was silent for many years in the minor leagues. It wouldn’t be surprising if McGehee’s second act comes up short of his initial Milwaukee mashing.

On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays picked up arbitration-eligible catcher Kelly Shoppach from the Cleveland Indians for a PTBNL.

With switch-hitting force Carlos Santana knocking on the big league door and Lou Marson having been snagged from the Phillies at last year’s trade deadline, the Indians are still sitting pretty behind the dish.

Dan Budreika covered Shoppach’s fantasy value a few days back. Shoppach’s lines were aided by exceptionally high BABIP figures from 2006-2008, before coming back down to earth in 2009. He still projects to be a quality backstop, with CHONE calling for a .229/.322/.422 line in 2010. For reference, the average MLB catcher batted .254/.320/.395 in 2009.

The addition of Shoppach in Tampa leaves incumbent Dioner Navarro looking like a prime candidate to change zip codes this offseason. The former Yankee and Dodger had a nice season at the plate in 2008, but he tanked in ’09. What happened, and what can we expect from Navarro going forward?

The switch-hitter’s BABIP has been all over the place over the past three seasons: .253 in 2007, .321 in 2008 and just .233 in 2009. As a guy who doesn’t walk all that much (career 7.6 BB%) or hit for much power (career .111 ISO), Navarro is subject to the caprices of his batting average. His wOBA figures from ’07 to ’09 reflect this: .280 in ’07, .330 in ’08 and .258 in ’09.

Using an expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a better picture of what Navarro’s BABIP projects to be based on his batted ball profile.

According to the tool, here are Navarro’s XBABIP figures over the past three seasons:

2007: .304
2008: .311
2009: .292

The XBABIP tool portrays Navarro as having a BABIP around the .300 mark over the past three years, compared to an actual figure of .271. His career BABIP is .279. Perhaps Navarro has been somewhat unlucky. But he does possess two traits of a low BABIP hitter: he runs like a catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score-the MLB avg. is around five) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 13 infield/fly ball percentage). In fact, Navarro’s IF/FB% has skyrocketed:

2007: 10.5%
2008: 14%
2009: 18%

Another negative trend for Navarro is his plate discipline. He walked in over 10 percent of his PA between the Dodgers and Rays in 2005 and 2006, but has progressively become more of a hacker:

Navi drew ball four 7.8% of the time in ’07, 7.4% in ’08 and just 4.6% in ’08. Not surprisingly, his outside swing percentage spiked this past year. He went fishin’ out of the strike zone 28.4% of the time, compared to the 25% MLB average and Navarro’s career 23.4% mark.

Clearly, Navarro was a mess in the batter’s box in 2009. It’s reasonable to expect his BABIP to bounce back up next year, though a number in the .270’s might be more reasonable than the .300 that the XBABIP tool suggests. Bill James projects a .254/.315/.367 line in 2010. CHONE gives a similar .254/.312/.377 triple-slash.

Twenty-six in February, the arbitration-eligible Navarro is a good bet to be traded or non-tendered in the near future. If he lands in a spot where playing time is plentiful, he’s going to have to rediscover his strike-zone judgment to be of use to his new employers and fantasy owners alike.

For major league hurlers, calling Petco Park home is the pitching equivalent of winning an all-expenses paid trip to Disney Land. Bring us your homer-prone, your waiver-wire wanderers, your injury-plagued looking for a fresh start. Petco wishes to help you (sorry, Mark Prior: even the Happiest Pitching Place On Earth has its limitations).

Until July of 2009, right-hander Jake Peavy enjoyed the ambiance of Petco. Make no mistake: Peavy has been a very good starter in his own right. But, his home ballpark surely aided him.

Courtesy of ESPN’s park factor numbers, here’s how much Petco has depressed offense over the past three seasons:

Petco Park, 2007-2009:

Runs: 0.76
HR: 0.72
H: 0.85
2B: 0.73
3B: 0.92

(1.00 is neutral. Numbers under 1.00 indicate a park factor favoring pitchers, and numbers over 1.00 favor batters.)

Petco’s a massive pitcher’s park: that’s not breaking news. But the numbers still are staggering. Run-scoring is absolutely smothered in San Diego’s home ballpark.

Peavy was shipped to the White Sox in a deadline day shocker last July 31st. Here are the three-year park factors for his new home:

U.S. Cellular Field, 2007-2009:

Runs: 1.09
HR: 1.26
H: 0.99
2B: 0.89
3B: 0.61

There aren’t that many doubles and triples legged out in the Cell. That’s because those batters are too busy leisurely trotting around the bases, while Hawk Harrelson shrilly does his best to shatter every window in the greater Chicago area.

Over the past three seasons, Peavy has surrendered 0.44 home runs per nine innings at home, and 1.01 HR/9 on the road. The 28 year-old isn’t an extreme fly ball pitcher (41.8 GB%), but his groundball rate is a few ticks below the league average. Some of those flys that were innocuous outs at Petco are likely to carry over the fence at The Cell.

Let’s assume for a moment that Peavy’s strikeout and walk rates mirror his Bill James projection for 2010: 9.08 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9. But instead of his HR/9 average coming in well under 1.00, he gives up roughly one homer per nine frames. That’s about 24 dingers in his projected 215 innings.

That would make Peavy’s projected Fielding Independent ERA about 3.70.

Maybe you feel that James’ K/9 and BB/9 estimates aren’t quite right. Peavy did cruise once he returned to the mound with the Pale Hose. But those projected K and walk ratios are a dead ringer for his career averages in the N.L., in a pitcher’s haven.

There has been a disparity in the level of play between the A.L. and the N.L. Last offseason, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times examined pitchers switching leagues over the 2004-2008 seasons.

He found that those going from the N.L. to the A.L. received a “penalty.” As one might expect based on the A.L. possessing the DH and clearly playing a superior brand of baseball as of late, pitchers moving from the N.L. to the A.L. saw an across-the-board dip in performance. Pitchers going from the Senior Circuit to the Junior Circuit saw their K/9 decline by 0.57, and their BB/9 increase ever so slightly (+0.05).

Let’s apply those marks to Peavy’s projections. Now, his FIP is about 3.85.

None of this is to suggest that owners should shy away from Peavy. However, it is important to consider park and league effects when projecting a guy moving from a pitcher’s paradise in the N.L. to a homer-happy venue in the A.L. Also, his last two seasons have been curtailed by injury.

Peavy’s good. But if you’re looking for another ERA in the low-three’s, you’ll probably be disappointed.

When the Milwaukee Brewers selected Matt LaPorta with the 7th overall pick in the 2007 draft, some fans and analysts did a spit-take.

Few doubted that the University of Florida slugger could rake. An injury-plagued junior season, coupled with a hefty price tag, caused LaPorta to drop to the 14th round of the ’06 draft (he and the Red Sox couldn’t come to terms). But the 6-2, 210 pound righty possessed what Baseball America described as “plus-plus raw power.” Having recovered from an oblique injury, LaPorta’s pop was a “game-changing tool.”

The problem, the skeptics said, came on the other side of the equation. LaPorta was praised for his polished bat but penalized for plodding defense. With Prince Fielder entrenched at first base, where would LaPorta play?

To the club’s credit, the Brewers drafted based on pure talent instead of myopically taking a player who better fit a short-term organizational need. The composition of a major league roster is far too fluid to draft based on filling some immediate void. If LaPorta’s bat was as good as advertised, Milwaukee at worst had a coveted trade chip.

After the ink dried on his $2M signing bonus and a strained quad muscle healed, LaPorta destroyed fresh-faced pitchers late in the 2007 season (.304/.369/.696 in 130 PA between Rookie Ball and Low-A).

In an effort to fit his bat into the big league picture, LaPorta played the outfield corners. BA rated the former Gator as the best prospect in the Brewers system, saying that he “shouldn’t need much more than a full season in the minors before becoming an impact hitter in Milwaukee.”

Realizing that LaPorta’s lumber was highly advanced, the Brewers jumped their prized hitter up to AA Huntsville in 2008. He shone brightest in a prospect-laden Stars lineup, hammering the Southern League for a .288/.402/.576 triple-slash in 366 PA. LaPorta popped 20 homers, with a .288 ISO. He was no hacker either, walking in 13% of his PA and whiffing at a rather modest rate for a slugger (20 K%).

Looking to make the playoffs for the first time since Harvey’s Wallbangers back in 1982, the Brewers cashed in their best prospect in July to acquire CC Sabathia from the Indians.

LaPorta headed to Cleveland along with RHP Rob Bryson, LHP Zach Jackson and a PTBNL that eventually became OF Michael Brantley.

He played in the Beijing Olympics after the swap, suffering a concussion in a mid-August contest. In 67 PA at AA with his new club, LaPorta hit .233/.299/.350. BA dubbed him the second-best prospect in Cleveland’s system entering 2009. As Milwaukee had, Cleveland played LaPorta mostly in left and right field.

Splitting the ’09 campaign between AAA Columbus and Cleveland, LaPorta laid waste to International League pitching while getting his feet wet in the majors.

LaPorta compiled a .299/.388/.530 line in 393 AAA PA, smashing 23 HR with a .231 ISO. His strike-zone control remained excellent, walking 11.1% of the time and punching out just 16.6%. According to Minor League Splits, LaPorta’s work in the minors translated to a .263/.336/.446 major league line.

With Cleveland, he turned in a .254/.308/.442 triple-slash in 198 PA, with a .327 wOBA. LaPorta slammed 7 dingers and recovered from a slow start to post a .188 ISO, though he didn’t work the count especially well. He drew a free pass 6.2% of the time, with a 28.9 outside-swing percentage (25% MLB average). LaPorta manned the outfield corners and first base.

LaPorta’s long-term defensive home is still up in the air. He shifted between the outfield and first base at AAA and in the majors, and his TotalZone defensive numbers don’t paint a pretty picture of his work running down balls in the gaps.

His bat, on the other hand, looks major league ready. LaPorta’s projections for the 2010 season don’t jump off the page, but he figures to be an above-average hitter with the potential to best his offensive forecasts. Bill James foresees a .347 wOBA from LaPorta next season, while Sean Smith’s CHONE throws out a line that also equates to a wOBA of .347. If I were a betting man, I would take the “over” on that wOBA.

The big question for LaPorta entering 2010 is his health. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left hip and left big toe in October. The procedures came with a 4-6 month recovery period, meaning he could be behind his teammates come spring training.

Twenty-five years old in January, LaPorta has the offensive skills to be an asset in mixed leagues. Track his progress as the offseason progresses. If his hip and toe are healing well, he could be a steal on draft day.