Earlier in the decade, the Angels were known for consistently cobbling together top-tier bullpens. From 2002-2007, L.A. ranked in the top three in the American League in reliever xFIP, taking top honors in 2003 and 2004.

The names, outside of $900,000 bonus baby Francisco Rodriguez, were hardly glamorous. Those Angelic bullpens were anchored by guys like Brendan Donnelly (a 27th round pick of the White Sox who passed through six organizations), Scot Shields (the Angels’ 38th rounder in 1997) and Ben Weber, a 20th round pick of the Blue Jays who didn’t get a legit big league shot until age 31.

Given the Angels’ track record of uncovering bullpen gems, one might find it strange that the team has laid down a big chunk of change on free agent relievers in recent off-seasons. Justin Speier pulled down $18 million while contributing -0.2 WAR. Brian Fuentes compiled 0.4 WAR in 2009 while making $8.5M. He’ll earn $9M in 2010, and has a $9M vesting option for 2011. Fun fact: Donnelly came out of nowhere, again, to post a 0.6 WAR season with the Marlins in 2009. The cost? A minor league deal.

Add Fernando Rodney to the list of high-profile relief signings. The long-time Tiger, 33 in March, inked for two years and $11M recently. It’s a level of compensation that Rodney has not justified during his major league tenure.

The first thing some will point to regarding Rodney is: 37 for 38. As in, he converted 37 of 38 save opportunities in 2009. That sounds impressive, right? Well, looks can be deceiving.

Rodney posted his lowest strikeout rate (7.26 K/9) since an 18-inning stint 2002. His control, never a strong suit (career 4.64 BB/9) was again middling, with 4.88 walks per nine frames in 2009. On the positive side, the righty with mid-90’s gas and a hard changeup did post the highest groundball rate (57.9 percent) and first pitch strike percentage (62.7) of his career.

Even so, he was nothing special. Rodney’s xFIP was 4.42 this past season. For reference, 138 relievers pitched 50 or more innings in 2009. Fernando’s xFIP placed 89th. His 1.49 K/BB ratio ranked 115th. Even by Rodney’s own standards, it wasn’t a banner season. His 77.9% contact rate was his highest since ’02, and well above his 73.3% career mark. His ’09 xFIP was actually his worst full-season mark.

With the Angels, Rodney could now compete with last year’s big-ticket disappointment, Fuentes. The 34 year-old southpaw posted a K rate (7.53 per nine) well below his career level (9.92 K/9), while handing out 3.93 BB/9. His xFIP was a grisly 4.94.

Fuentes couldn’t seem to find his breaking stuff last year. His recent Baseball Info Solutions pitch data lumps all of his mid-70’s breakers together, but the Pitch F/X data suggests Fuentes tosses both a slider and a curve.

The slider has been worth a healthy +0.76 runs per 100 pitches since 2002, with the curve posting a run value around the major league average. But in 2009, those slow, sweeping pitches (all called sliders by BIS) were pummeled for -0.42 runs/100. Fuentes’ contact rate spiked to 80.3 percent, well above his 73.6% figure since ’02.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Rodney and Fuentes:

Rodney: 57 IP, 7.9 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.58 ERA, 0 runs above replacement
Fuentes: 56 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.54 ERA, +8 RAR

If Rodney and Fuentes were to perform around this level, the Angels would be paying $14.5M for less than one win above replacement.

Heading into 2010, Rodney will garner attention based on his save total and the possibility that he usurps Fuentes for ninth inning glory in L.A. Don’t get carried away, though. For all of the press and cash Rodney and Fuentes will get, the best reliever in the ‘pen might just be pitching in middle relief.

The Oakland Athletics recently added to the club’s jumble of outfielders, signing free agent Coco Crisp to a one-year, $4.75 million deal. Covelli’s contract has a $5.75M club option for 2011, with a $500K buyout.

The 30 year-old switch-hitter is coming off of a 2009 season that was curtailed by injuries to both shoulders. Crisp logged just 215 plate appearances, playing his last game on June 12th. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, then had a procedure to clean up some damage in his left shoulder a short time later.

Much of Coco’s value is tied up in his legs. He’s a wonderful defender, having posted a career +5.8 UZR/150 in center field and a +23.5 UZR/150 in left field. So, he figures to be a favorite among Oakland’s pitching staff. But what about his offensive game?

It’s wise not to put a lot of stock in 200-some PA, but Crisp had an odd-ball year at the plate in 2009. His .228/.336/.378 line looks weak, but he suffered from a lousy .247 BABIP (his career average is .309). Coco posted a .150 ISO (.130 career average), while drawing a walk in a career-high 13.9 percent of his plate appearances (7.7 career average).

Crisp has some interesting plate discipline trends going on. His walk rate has climbed every year since 2004. The increases from ’04 to ’06 were negligible (from 6.8 percent to 7 percent). But he walked 8.7% in 2007 and 8.8% in 2008, and took plenty of pitches with an otherwise hack-happy Royals team in ’09.

Despite those previously low walk totals, Crisp has never really been a free swinger. His career outside swing percentage is 18.8, well below the 25 percent major league average. Instead, the one-time Cardinals prospect is seeing a lesser percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone:

Crisp’s In-Zone Percentage, 2002-2009 (MLB average that season in parentheses)

2002: 56.2 (54.6), +3% above the MLB average
2003: 56.1 (51.4), +9%
2004: 57.8 (55.1), +5%
2005: 56.1 (53.8), +4%
2006: 54.8 (52.6), +4%
2007: 51.9 (50.3), +3%
2008: 52.2 (51.1), +2%
2009: 50.9 (49.3), +3%

He’s still getting more pitches within the zone than most, but the relative difference compared to the big league average has lessened. Perhaps because of his bum shoulders, Crisp didn’t swing at much of anything in 2009. His 41.4 Swing% was his lowest mark since 2002. The average swing rate in 2009 was 45.2 percent.

Overall, Crisp has been a slightly below league-average batter during the course of his career, with a wRC+ of 97 (his offense, once adjusted for park and league, is about three percent below average).

He continued to display good wheels in ’09, swiping 13 bags in 15 attempts. Crisp notched at least 20 steals in each season from 2006 to 2008, and has nabbed bases at an 81.4% clip since ’06. Some guys swipe 20+ bags while actually harming their teams (Troy Tulowitzki is a huge asset, but Colorado might want to Super Glue his spikes to first base).

Not Crisp, though. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, Coco rated as +1.26 runs above average in limited action in 2009. He was -0.07 in 2008, +2.15 in 2007 and +1.34 in 2006.

Early word is that Crisp will man center field, flanked by Rajai Davis in left field and Ryan Sweeney in right field.

Davis (+11.3 UZR/150 in the OF) and Sweeney (+17.1) also possess gazelle-like range, meaning few balls should drop in the Coliseum’s outfield pasture.

However, the purported arrangement would leave Scott Hairston, an average hitter (100 wRC+) and not too shabby a fly catcher himself (+6.3 UZR/150 in the OF), without a defined role. That’s to say nothing of Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck and the recently acquired Michael Taylor. Tough luck, Eric Patterson.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Oakland’s outfield options:

Crisp: .256/.333/.373, .313 wOBA, 19 SB/5 CS
Davis: .267/.326/.372, .309 wOBA, 31 SB/11 CS
Sweeney: .280/.344/.396, .327 wOBA, 6 SB/5 CS
Hairston: .251/.307/.436, .319 wOBA, 4 SB/2 CS
Cunningham: .255/.318/.401, .314 wOBA, 10 SB/6 CS
Buck: .256/.331/.403, .322 wOBA, 4 SB/2CS
Patterson: .260/.324/.400, .317 wOBA, 24 SB/7 CS
Taylor: .264/.317/.427, .322 wOBA, 9 SB/6 CS

With plus defense and an OK bat, Crisp projects to be around a two-win player in 2010 (the fans currently peg him at +2.1 WAR). For $5.25 million in guaranteed cash, that’s a good deal in a vacuum. But the question most people have is, what does Coco add that Sweeney and Davis already don’t? Perhaps a trade is in the offing. Or, maybe the A’s just don’t want to count on Hairston or Buck’s health and want Cunningham and Taylor to log more time in the minors.

Whatever the reason, Crisp looks to be set as a starter. His speed makes him a late-round consideration in mixed leagues. Though Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are groundball-oriented starters, Oakland’s batch of young arms looks a bit more appealing with three center field-worthy defenders patrolling the outfield.

Mariners acquired OF Johermyn Chavez and RHP Brandon League from the Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Morrow.

Marc Hulet did a fantastic job giving us a breakdown of Chavez, a 20 year-old with a projectable 6-3, 200+ pound frame and power potential. The Venezuelan prospect has plenty to learn about controlling the strike zone, however. Johermyn, meet Greg Halman. Greg, Johermyn.

While Chavez could pay dividends for the Mariners down the line, let’s break down how Morrow and League are affected by this deal.

If someone publishes “Pitcher Development for Dummies,” there ought to be an entire chapter devoted to how Morrow was mishandled in his early days in Seattle.

The fireballing righty was taken 5th overall out of Cal in the 2006 amateur draft. In its prospect coverage, Baseball America dubbed Morrow “perhaps the best pure arm in the draft.” The lanky 6-3 pitcher sat in the mid-to-high 90’s with his fastball, flashing an occasionally plus slider and a passable changeup. However, BA also said that his secondary stuff “comes and goes,” and that “several scouts still question his feel for the strike zone and for pitching in general.”

So, what did the M’s do with their gifted-but-unpolished bonus baby? Jump him all the way to the majors after 16 innings in the minors, of course!

In 2007, Morrow was pigeonholed into Seattle’s bullpen. Unsurprisingly, he was as raw as uncooked hamburger meat. Instead of working on his breaking and off speed stuff in the minors, building arm strength and stamina, Morrow flung mid-90’s fastballs in the bigs, hoping to miss enough bats to compensate for a total lack of control.

He did whiff a lot of hitters, with 9.38 K/9. But Morrow walked an obscene 7.11 hitters per nine frames. His heater, thrown 80 percent of the time, was decent (+0.53 runs per 100 pitches). But Brandon made little progress with his secondary pitches (-2.37 for the slider, with a splitter/change that was about average).

Morrow spent most of 2008 as a reliever, before going to the minors to get stretched out and returning in September as a starter.

He whiffed 11.5 batters per nine frames in 36.2 relief innings, with improved control (3.68 BB/9). As a starter, Morrow posted rates of 9 K/9 and 6.11 BB/9 in 28 IP. Overall, his fastball (thrown 71 percent) was excellent (+1.59 runs/100). Morrow’s slider was still lackluster (-0.54), and his changeup/split was a little better than average (+0.34).

2009 was more of the same. To start, or not to start, that is the question. Hamle…er, Morrow oscillated between the ‘pen and the rotation yet again. He served as Seattle’s closer before David Aardsma grabbed the role. Brandon also served a DL stint with right biceps tendinitis in late April (he had some shoulder and forearm discomfort earlier in the spring as well). Morrow then made some starts from June to July, before getting optioned to AAA Tacoma.

In 10 starts (55 innings) with the Rainers, the former Golden Bear punched out a modest 6.5 hitters per nine innings, with 3.8 BB/9 and a 3.53 FIP. Morrow had more issues with a forearm strain while on the farm.

He returned to Seattle in September to make four more starts. As a starter in 2009, Morrow K’d 7.5 per nine frames, while still handing out plenty of free passes (5.26 BB/9).

Ironically, his slider (+0.64 runs/100), curveball (+0.5) and changeup (+0.18) rated as above-average pitches in ’09, while his heater suffered (-0.53).

Under team control until 2012, Morrow hopes to start with the Blue Jays. Because of the peculiar decision by Seattle’s last regime to stuff him in the bullpen and Morrow’s subsequent shuffling between roles, he’s now 25 and still green as grass.

Assuming Morrow still has minor league options left, might it be best for Toronto to give him back some of that lost development time by letting him open the 2010 season at AAA? Las Vegas isn’t an ideal locale for a pitcher to polish his skills. But Morrow tossed all of 101 frames in the minors, and has a career walk rate of 5.8 per nine innings in the majors. He’s clearly talented, but he’s also a mess right now. Morrow could also emerge as a closer option with the Jays.

In swapping Morrow for League, Seattle is either A.) fairly convinced that Morrow won’t cut it as a starter, B.) smitten with the young outfielder Chavez or C.) both.

That’s not to say that League is a slouch, though. The 27 year-old righty has a career 3.71 xFIP in the majors, waging a ground assault with a 62 GB%. Toronto’s second-round pick in the 2001 draft turned in his finest campaign in 2009, with 9.16 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 3.16 xFIP in 74.2 innings.

League’s 2009 K rate was well above his career average of 6.85 per nine innings. He changed his approach this past year, however. The 6-2 reliever threw a blistering mid-90’s fastball well over 80 percent of the time from 2006-2008, mixing in some high-80’s sliders and a rare changeup.

In ’09, League lowered his fastball percentage to 65 percent, and basically scrapped the slider. He relied heavily upon his mid-80’s changeup, tossing the pitch nearly 33 percent of the time. While his heater wasn’t as successful as usual (-0.31 runs/100, compared to +0.24 during his career), Brandon’s hard changeup was a plus offering (+2.65 runs/100 in 2009).

The result of the change? A career-high outside-swing percentage (32.9 percent) and a big dip in contact rate (71 percent, compared to a 78.8% career average). The extra whiffs came at the expense of some grounders, though he still kept the ball down (55.7 GB%).

With a low arm slot and his previously fastball-centric approach, League has struggled with lefties. He still gave up his fair share of extra-base hits to southpaws in ’09, but he did at least display better control against opposite-handed hitters.

There has been some speculation that League could try his hand at starting, but he hasn’t started on a regular basis since 2003. In all likelihood, League gives the M’s a strong 7th or 8th inning relief option.

For most 23 year-old starting pitchers, performing at an average level in the major leagues would be cause for celebration and optimism. Of course, Yankees right-hander Joba Chamberlain isn’t your run-of-the-mill arm.

The 6-2, 230 pounder was taken out of Nebraska with a supplemental first-round pick in the 2006 amateur draft. According to Baseball America (subscription required), Joba didn’t even pitch until his senior year of high school. But in a few short years, he went from a husky hurler getting hammered at Division II Nebraska-Kearney to a slimmed-down star leading the Cornhuskers to the College World Series.

BA’s draft scouting report mentioned that a triceps injury caused Chamberlain to fall down the board a bit, but his stuff was top-shelf. He possessed a “devastating slider,” a low-to-mid-90’s fastball that “should chew up wood bats” and a decent curveball and changeup.

Joba’s pitches did indeed munch on bats in the pros, as he barely spent any time in the minors. In 2007, Chamberlain posted rates of 13.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 with a tiny 2.03 FIP. When hitters weren’t whiffing, they were chopping the ball into the dirt (53.8 GB%).

Earning a big league call-up in August, Chamberlain proceeded to punish hitters out of the bullpen. In 24 frames, he punched out 12.75 batters per nine frames, issuing 2.25 BB/9 with a 2.42 xFIP. Sitting at 97 MPH with his fastball, Joba had a 64.2% contact rate (3rd-lowest among pitchers with 20+ IP) and a massive 35.1 outside swing percentage (25% MLB average).

Since then, there have been endless barstool arguments about Joba’s ultimate role with the Bronx Bombers. In 2008, Chamberlain made 12 starts and 30 relief appearances. He started the year in the ‘pen, transitioned to the rotation in June and then moved back to relief in September following a DL stint for right shoulder tendinitis.

Joba was superb in both roles. To no one’s surprise, he dominated out of the bullpen, with 11.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 2.31 ERA in 35 innings. But he was arguably more impressive as a starter, with 10.2 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 IP. Overall, his groundball rate was a healthy 52 percent.

He didn’t go extremely deep into those games, averaging a little less than 5 and 2/3 innings per start. But the answer to the “starter or reliever?” question appeared to be an easy one. Even the best relievers don’t generally produce the same sort of value as an above-average starter. It’s more difficult to find a quality starter than it is to uncover a ‘pen arm.

In 2009, Chamberlain made 32 appearances (31 starts) in 157.1 innings pitched. The results, while far from bad, were disappointing. Joba’s 4.75 ERA was higher than his 4.56 xFIP, as his batting average on balls in play was a hefty .320. Still, we expected more than league-average pitching.

Chamberlain struck out 7.61 hitters per nine frames, while handing out 4.35 walks per nine innings. He served up 1.2 HR/9, and his home run per fly ball rate wasn’t really the culprit (12.4%, slightly above the average for pitchers). Rather, Joba’s groundball rate fell to 42.9 percent. Some of those extra fly balls cleared the fence at New Yankee Stadium (1.39 HR/9 at home, 0.94 HR/9 on the road). He transitioned to the bullpen for the playoffs.

His plate discipline stats were decidedly average. Joba’s 80.2% contact rate was a tiny bit better than the 80.5% MLB average, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (90.6) was well above the 87.8% big league average.

His control came and went, with 47 percent of his pitches located within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average) and a 54.7 first-pitch strike percentage (58.2% MLB average). Hitters responded to Chamberlain’s lack of fine touch by chasing few pitches off the plate. Chamberlain’s outside swing percentage was 22.8 percent.

As one would expect, Chamberlain’s velocity dipped as he had to combat lineups several times. He sat between 92 and 93 MPH in 2009, with his high-80’s slider becoming a mid-80’s breaker. Chamberlain also mixed in some high-70’s curveballs and the occasional low-80’s changeup.

Remember that fastball that was supposed to “chew up” lumber? Well, Joba’s heat was one of the least effective pitches in the majors in 2009. He threw the fastball nearly 64 percent of the time, but it had a gruesome run value of -1.26 per 100 pitches thrown. On a per pitch basis, only Jeff Suppan and Carl Pavano fared worse with the fastball.

Joba’s cheddar didn’t show much tailing action. The average right-handed fastball moves in toward a right-handed batter about six inches more a pitch thrown without spin. Chamberlain’s only tailed in toward righties a little more than four inches. Joba’s fastball posted just a 3.3 percent whiff rate. The average for a righty four-seam fastball is about 5.8 percent.

What about that low first pitch strike percentage? According to Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, Chamberlain tossed his fastball about 68 percent on the first pitch. He threw a strike with his fastball a meager 52.2 percent of the time in such situations. The average first pitch strike percentage when a righty throws a fastball is about 58 percent.

Chamberlain often ended up at the mercy of his opponents. Hitters worked a three-ball count in 23.4 percent of their plate appearances against Joba, compared to the 20.2 percent average for AL pitchers.

It’s a shame that Chamberlain got behind the hitter so often, as it limited the impact that his breaking pitches could make. His slider (thrown 22 percent of the time) had a run value of +1.29 per 100 pitches, while his curveball (thrown nine percent) was slightly better than average (+0.12). Don’t ask about the changeup (-2.56, though it was tossed just five percent).

With New York’s acquisition of Javier Vazquez, the Yankees have four starting spots set in stone (CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte are obviously locks as well). That leaves one opening for either Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. Both are well-qualified, and both could certainly end up taking some starts. Clubs just don’t get through a season using only their top five starters.

While Chamberlain didn’t set the world on fire in 2009, he just turned 24 in late September. Hopefully, he gets another crack at the rotation. For the sake of argument, let’s say Joba becomes “only” a 4.00 FIP starter at his peak. If he tosses 175 innings, that would make him worth about 2.7 wins above replacement per season. In 2009, the only reliever to top that WAR total was Jonathan Broxton, with +2.9. It’s awfully hard to make a reasonable argument that Chamberlain has more value out of the ‘pen.

Joba left a sour taste in the mouths of the fantasy owners who dropped a high draft pick on him last year. However, don’t get too discouraged. Surely, Chamberlain has his flaws at the moment. He must do a better job of locating his fastball in order to avoid so many hitter’s counts. That, in turn, would allow him to use his plus slider and solid curve more often. But should we really be shocked that a guy who spent half a season in the minors is rough around the edges?

That’s not to say New York made the wrong decision in bringing him up in 2007-Chamberlain was throttling minor league batters. However, Chamberlain might need some development time before he reaches the lofty expectations bestowed upon him. Pitchers don’t always hit the ground running, progressing in a linear fashion. Joba might not be the instant ace some desired, but there’s plenty of time for him to become a high-caliber big league starter.

According to Foxsports.com and MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez, the Atlanta Braves have come to terms with Troy Glaus on a one-year, incentive-laden contract.

Glaus, 33, has logged nearly 11,400 innings at third base in his career. However, a shoulder injury now limits the 6-4, 240 pound righty batter to the other infield corner. Glaus will take over first base duties in Atlanta, as the Braves look to bridge the gap at the position until top prospect Freddie Freeman is big league ready.

Health is the question mark with Glaus. He underwent right shoulder surgery last January, missing the vast majority of the 2009 season. As he tried to make his way back to the majors, Glaus had problems with a bulging disk in his back. On the rehab trail, Glaus batted .212/.340/.329 in 103 PA spread among High-A, AA and AAA. The former Angel, Diamondback and Blue Jay got just 32 plate appearances with the Cardinals, and was slowed by a strained oblique.

In his halcyon days, Glaus mashed with the best of them. During his last healthy year in 2008, he posted a 131 wRC+, meaning his offense was 31 percent better than average, once adjusted for park and league factors. His career wRC+ is 123, and his ISO is .241. A highly patient hitter (Glaus’ outside swing percentage is just 16.5% since 2002, compared to the 25% MLB average), Glaus has consistently posted healthy walk rates (13.7 BB% career).

It’s hard to say what Glaus has left at this juncture. He also had issues with his right shoulder back in 2003 and 2004, eventually needing surgery that wiped away a portion of his ’04 season. 2007 brought forth a left foot injury that required his going under the knife yet again.

(Injury information courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool).

Keep a close watch on Glaus during the spring. If he’s relatively mended, he could be a cheap source of patience and pop. Of course, Glaus could also walk the Richie Sexson career path of doom.

Fresh off of the best season of his career, RHP Javier Vazquez is headed back to the Bronx as part of a five-player deal. Along with lefty Boone Logan, Vazquez has been traded to the Yankees for a package including RHP Arodys Vizcaino, LHP Michael Dunn and OF Melky Cabrera.

Later today, we’ll take a look at the implications of the trade for Vazquez. For now, let’s take a look at what the deal means for Cabrera.

The 25 year-old switch-hitter was signed by the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic back in 2001. Cabrera rapidly rose through the farm system, reaching the majors as a 20 year-old back in 2005. His career minor league line is .296/.349/.420. Melky didn’t show a lot of might at the plate (.124 ISO) and he swung from his heels, walking in 7.1 percent of his plate appearances. He rarely whiffed, with a 13.6 percent strikeout rate.

Getting regular playing time with the Yankees in 2006, Cabrera held up surprisingly well. His wRC+ was 101, meaning he was slightly above-average with the lumber once park and league factors are considered. Melky’s work in 2007 and 2008, by contrast, was disappointing. His wRC+ dipped to 91 in ’07 and checked in at a measly 71 in ’08. Cabrera’s plate discipline eroded:

2006: 10.9 BB%, 22.3 Outside-Swing%, 63.5 Z-Swing%
2007: 7.3 BB%, 29.5 O-Swing%, 65.8 Z-Swing%
2008: 6.5 BB%, 28.4 O-Swing%, 63.1 Z-Swing%

(the MLB average for O-Swing% is 25, and the average for Z-Swing% is about 66 percent)

Melky’s walk rate dropped considerably, as he offered at more pitches off the plate in ’07 and ’08. He was tentative against pitches within the zone in 2008, giving him the unwelcome double-whammy of swinging at more balls and taking more strikes.

Cabrera’s power remained mild: a .111 ISO in 2006, .117 in 2007 and a paltry .092 in 2008. Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs:

Cabrera’s Runs/100 Value against fastballs, 2006-2008

2006: +0.77
2007: -0.15
2008: -1.41

With big problems against heaters, Melky popped the ball up a ton in 2008. His infield/fly ball percentage was 15.3, 13th-highest among batters with 400+ PA.

Despite two stagnant seasons, Cabrera entered 2009 at 24 years old. While he didn’t drop any jaws this past year, he did reverse some of those troubling trends in the batter’s box.

In 540 PA, Cabrera posted a 102 wRC+. His walk rate didn’t bounce back to that 2006 level, but he drew a free pass 8.1% of the time. Melky’s O-Swing% was a league-average 24.9, and he took a cut at a few more pitches thrown over the plate (63.7 Z-Swing%). While not slamming fastballs (-0.02 runs per 100 pitches), Cabrera at least didn’t have the bat knocked out of his hands. His infield/fly ball rate fell to a more palatable 10.3%.

Cabrera also displayed a little more thump, with a .142 ISO and 13 home runs. He didn’t show much of a home/away platoon split. Though he’s not a huge stolen base threat, Cabrera did chip in 10 steals in 12 attempts.

In Atlanta, Cabrera figures to get a crack at the left field job. He has plenty of experience in center, but he has a career -5.9 UZR/150 in the middle pasture. Nate McLouth (career -7.1 UZR/150 in CF) hasn’t rated all that well either, though he did post a positive mark in 2009. Right field figures to be Jason Heyward’s domain for the next decade. Jordan Schafer shouldn’t be counted out, either.

Melky could be part of a platoon with righty-hitting Matt Diaz. Over the past four seasons, Cabrera has an 88 sOPS+ against righty pitching (12 percent worse than the league average) and a 75 sOPS+ against lefties (25 percent worse).

Of course, one could make the argument that the 32 year-old Diaz would be the better option regardless of which side the pitcher winds up from. Since 2006, Diaz has a 105 sOPS+ against righties and a 135 sOPS+ vs. southpaws. CHONE’s 2010 projections for the two are pretty even:.284/.349/.427 for Cabrera, .280/.340/.436 for Diaz.

While the 19 year-old Vizcaino has the most star potential of Atlanta’s trade goodies, Cabrera is basically an average hitter with some defensive chops in an outfield corner. He’s not terribly exciting, but Melky has some value as a guy with a few years of team control and perhaps some development time left. For Cabrera to be a fantasy option, however, he will have to take another step forward offensively.

Tampa Bay Rays traded Mitch Talbot to Cleveland Indians as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal

26 years old and out of minor league options, Talbot gets a fresh start in going from the pitching-rich Rays to the Indians. After mid-season deals that landed Cliff Lee in Philly and Carl Pavano in Minnesota, Cleveland lacked a big league starter with an xFIP under 4.50.

Originally taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft by the Houston Astros, Talbot was swapped to Tampa (along with Ben Zobrist) in July of 2006 for Aubrey Huff.

The 6-2, 200 pound righty doesn’t overwhelm with stuff. Baseball America says his fastball sits 88-91, though with tailing action. Talbot also possesses a cut fastball, a curveball and a changeup. In the minors, the Utah prep product has whiffed 7.4 batters per nine innings, with 2.6 BB/9. He’s not known for blowing batters away, but Talbot limits the walks and keeps the ball on the ground (career 53.9 GB% in the minors).

Talbot toiled at AAA Durham from 2007-2009, though his ’09 season was shortened by an elbow injury. Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are his major league equivalent lines:

2007: 5.11 FIP, 5.82 K/9, 4.57 BB/9
2008: 3.76 FIP, 6.45 K/9, 2.59 BB/9
2009: 3.58 FIP, 6.46 K/9, 3.16 BB/9

CHONE projects a 4.91 big league ERA for Talbot in 2010, with 5.65 K/9, 3.35 BB/9 and 1.15 HR/9. He could work his way into the back of Cleveland’s rotation.

Detroit Tigers traded Dusty Ryan to San Diego Padres for a PTBNL or cash

Detroit’s 48th round selection in the 2003 draft, Ryan barely made a peep at the plate until 2008. The 6-4, 220 pound righty batter missed three months with a knee injury in 2007. Baseball America’s scouting report on Ryan mentions that the Tigers nearly moved him to the mound after he failed to crack the Mendoza Line in ’07.

Dusty’s career prospects bounced back in ’08, however, as he hit a combined .266/.346/.491 in 419 PA between AA Erie and AAA Toledo. He also made his major league debut and cracked a couple of homers. Ryan spent most of 2009 back in the International League, batting .257/.359/.455 in 235 PA.

The 25 year-old backstop displayed strong secondary skills the past two seasons. He walked in 10.5% of his plate appearances with a .225 ISO in 2008, then walked 12.3% with a .198 ISO this past year. Contact, however, has been elusive (29.1 K% in 2008, 27.2 K% in 2009). BA called Ryan “vulnerable to breaking balls.”

Due to those issues with breaking stuff and subsequently high punch out rates, Ryan’s MLE’s aren’t that sunny. Minor League Splits translated his 2008 work to a .212/.273/.370 big league triple-slash, with 2009’s minor league hitting equating to a .225/.308/.383 line. CHONE forecasts a .219/.299/.367 showing in 2010.

In San Diego, Ryan will likely back up Nick Hundley. The 26 year-old Hundley has a similar skill set to Ryan, with some plate discipline and pop but also a hearty whiff rate. In 505 career PA, Hundley holds a 90 wRC+, which means his offense has been 10 percent worse than average once league and park factors are taken into account.

The 2009 Atlanta Braves boasted one of the best starting rotations in the majors. Collectively, Atlanta starters ranked second in the NL in FIP and xFIP, with the fourth-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the Senior Circuit. Javier Vazquez had a career year. Jair Jurrjens pitched well, if not as well as his microscopic ERA suggests. Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe were serviceable, and Tim Hudson made a strong last-season return.

A rookie did his best to steal the show, however. Tommy Hanson has laid waste to pro hitters since the Braves inked the 6-6 righty as a 2005 draft-and-follow selection.

Following a stint at Riverside Community College, Hanson signed on the dotted line for a $325,000 bonus. He made his pro debut with Danville in Rookie Ball in 2006, where he posted rates of 9.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 51.2 innings.

In 2007, Hanson dominated hitters with 10.4 punch outs per nine innings in 133 IP between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Carolina League (his FIP was 4.14). His control left something to be desired (3.9 BB/9) . But as a 20 year-old with wicked stuff, Hanson moved up prospect lists. Baseball America ranked the big righty as the 9th-best talent in Atlanta’s farm system, praising his “nasty overhand curveball with tight spin and 12-to-6-break.”

Hanson went from a sleeper prospect to a household name in 2008, wiping the floor with batters between the Carolina League and the AA Southern League. In 138 frames, Hanson whiffed a combined 10.6 batters, with 3.4 BB/9. His FIP dropped nearly a run, to 3.18. As if that weren’t enough, he then took no prisoners in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League (49 K in 29 innings, with a 0.63 ERA). Hanson topped Atlanta’s prospect list entering 2009, with BA noting that the Braves viewed him as a “future ace.”

Opening the ’09 season at AAA Gwinnett, Hanson outclassed International League batters. In 66.1 IP, he struck out 12.2 hitters per nine innings, with just 2.3 BB/9 (2.42 FIP). He forced his way to the majors, getting the call-up in early June.

Hanson made 21 starts for the Braves, compiling a 2.89 ERA in 127.2 innings. He whiffed 8.18 per nine frames, while issuing 3.24 free passes per nine innings. Hanson’s xFIP (4.03) was higher than his ERA, as his home run per fly ball rate (6.9 percent) was well below the typical 10-12% range for pitchers. A fly ball pitcher (40.2 GB% in the majors in ’09, career 39.1 GB% in the minors), Hanson will likely cough up a few more homers next season.

Even so, Atlanta’s prized prospect was extremely impressive. Few pitchers consistently got ahead in the count like Hanson: his 63.4 first-pitch strike percentage placed 10th among starters tossing 120+ innings (the MLB average is around 58 percent). Hanson’s 77.2 percent contact rate wasn’t elite (80.5% MLB average), but it was comfortably above average. His 9.9 swinging strike percentage was excellent, though, placing 24th among starting pitchers (7.8% average for starters).

Coming up through the minors, Hanson was best known for a plus curveball and slider. He wasn’t bashful about breaking out the breaking stuff in the majors. Hanson threw his 92 MPH fastball about 58% of the time, with positive results (+0.28 runs per 100 pitches).

His 83 MPH slider (thrown 24 percent) and 75 MPH curveball (14 percent), however, paralyzed opposing batters. That slider was worth +1.79 runs per 100 tosses, and his curve was even more deadly (+2.36). Hanson didn’t use his 83 MPH changeup much, throwing it just 4 percent with little success (-1.85).

Using data from Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, we can get a better read on how Hanson gets the job done:

(Quick note about the MLB averages: Lefkowitz’s tool uses Microsoft Excel, and currently it only downloads a maximum of 5,000 pitches. So, the MLB averages aren’t based on ALL pitches thrown by righties. But this gives us a decent sample size.)

He does a great job of pounding the strike zone with his heater. The rates on the curveball and slider are fantastic: Hanson’s whiff percentage with his breaking stuff is through the roof, and he can locate those pitches to boot. The changeup, obviously, remains a work in progress.

Tommy shut down right-handers in 2009 (56 sOPS+, meaning he was 44 percent better than average against righties). He didn’t exactly struggle with southpaws (92 sOPS+, eight percent better than average). We’re splitting hairs here, but Hanson did occasionally lose the zone against opposite-handed batters:

Vs. RHB
Hanson’s Strikeout/PA%:27.1
NL Avg. for RHP vs. RHB: 18.9
Hanson’s Walks/PA%: 5.3
NL Avg. for RHP vs. RHB: 7.4

Vs. LHB
Hanson’s Strikeout/PA%: 22.7
NL Avg. for RHP vs. LHB: 17.4
Hanson’s Walks/PA%: 11.9
NL Avg. for RHB vs. LHB: 10.5

(Data courtesy of Baseball-Reference)

Tommy Hanson just turned 23 in late August, yet he’s remarkably polished for his age. He’s not afraid to hammer the strike zone with his fastball, slider or curveball, and those breaking pitches generate a dizzying number of swings and misses. Few pitchers, regardless of age, possess Hanson’s combination of power and command. Don’t hesitate to drop a high draft pick on Hanson in 2010.

Catch Brewers southpaw Manny Parra on a good day, and you’ll come away highly impressed. Low-90’s velocity, a quality curve and a sweet changeup/splitter? Maybe, you think, the Brewers’ rotation can amount to more than Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and “staff.”

But take in a Parra start when he’s having an off day, and you’ll be convinced that he’s taking pitching lessons from Charlie Brown. Walks and hits pile up with such rapidity that the official scorer gets carpal tunnel.

Parra was Milwaukee’s 26th round pick in the 2001 amateur draft, but don’t let that fool you. He was a draft-and-follow selection who pitched for American River Junior College in 2002, eventually inking with the Brewers for a cool $1.55 million bonus. Parra cobbled together a superb minor league track record, punching out 8.6 batters per nine frames with 2.5 BB/9.

Injuries, however, threatened to put the skids on his burgeoning career. Parra strained a pectoral muscle in 2003, missed a big chunk of the 2004 campaign with shoulder weakness and was shelved in July of 2005 with more shoulder troubles. Baseball America noted that Parra would “over-rotate in his delivery, slowing his arm down,” which led to “nagging injuries.” The 6-3 lefty went under the knife to repair a damaged rotator cuff in August of 2005.

Though all of those ailments put him behind the development curve, Parra’s stuff remained tantalizing. BA ranked him the second-best prospect in Milwaukee’s system prior to 2008, following a 2007 season in which he aced AA and AAA (a combined 8.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 106.2 IP, with a perfect game in AAA for good measure) while making his big league debut. Parra did suffer a broken thumb on a bunt attempt with the Brewers, but there weren’t any long-term consequences.

Given a chance to make 29 starts and three relief appearances for the Brewers in 2008, Parra whiffed 7.97 batters per nine innings while issuing 4.07 BB/9. He posted a 4.39 ERA, but his xFIP (3.85) was even more encouraging. Parra’s 78.2% contact rate was below the 80.8% MLB average, and he burned worms with a 51.6 GB%.

Manny needed to do a better job of not falling prey to hitter’s counts, as his 55.1 first-pitch strike percentage fell well short of the 58.6% big league average. But with better luck (his BABIP was .337, and his HR/FB% was 13.5), it was easy to envision Parra emerging as a strong sidekick to Gallardo.

Last offseason, former Rotographs contributor Peter Bendix wrote a glowing assessment of Parra’s talents. Here’s the money quote:

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

Instead of improving in 2009, Parra compiled an ERA (6.36) that made Jeff Suppan Braden Looper blush. Parra was demoted to AAA Nashville from late June to early July. What in the name of Bernie Brewer happened?

In 140 frames, Parra whiffed 7.46 hitters per nine innings. His contact rate (79.6%) was a bit higher than in 2008. Plus, his swinging strike rate fell from an excellent 9.3% in ’08 to a still-solid 8.6% in 2009 (the MLB average for starters is 7.8%). Those figures help to explain the modest dip in his K rate.

Despite throwing more first pitch strikes (57.4 percent) and locating more of his pitches within the strike zone (49.5% in ’09, compared to 48.9% in ’08), Parra handed out 4.95 free passes per nine frames. Perhaps his outside swing percentage explains part of the increase, as it fell from 23.4 percent in 2008 to 22.2 percent this past year (25% MLB average). Though he didn’t get quite as many grounders, Parra still managed an above-average 48.1 GB%.

While clearly not pitching as well as he did in 2008, Parra’s xFIP (4.64) suggests that he also wasn’t the total pitching pinata that his ERA would suggest. His BABIP was obscenely high at .365, and his rate of stranding runners on base (64.7 percent) was below his career 68.3 percent mark.

What are we to make of Parra at this point? In 332.1 major league innings, his BABIP is a whopping .349. His xFIP (4.23) is nearly a full run lower than his actual 5.17 ERA.

There’s nothing in Parra’ batted ball profile that immediately jumps out. His career line drive rate is 20.3 percent. He is a groundball-slanted pitcher. Grounders do have a higher BABIP than fly balls.

But Parra’s career numbers on grounders are incredibly poor:

Parra’s career BAVG on groundballs: .290
Parra’s career SLG% on groundballs: .323

NL BAVG on groundballs, 2007-2009: .237
NL SLG% on groundballs, 2007-2009: .258

Parra’s batting average on grounders is 22 percent higher than the NL average, and his slugging percentage is 25 percent higher than the NL norm.

To be honest, I’m not sure what’s going on here. In its 2006 prospect handbook, Baseball America mentioned that Parra had a proclivity to throw “fat strikes,” leaving him “far more hittable than his stuff should allow.” Manny’s career BABIP in the minors was .321. BABIP figures tend to be higher in the minors, due to a lower level of defensive skill. But that’s still pretty high.

Despite all of the struggles, Parra’s curveball (+0.37 runs per 100 pitches), changeup (+0.39) and splitter (+1.48) actually rate as above-average pitches to this point. His fastball, though? Let’s just say Charlie Brown’s heat gets scorched less often.

Parra’s career run value with his fastball is -1.58 per 100 tosses. That’s fourth-worst among pitchers with 200+ IP over the past three years. When your heater’s effectiveness rates between that of Brandon Backe and Matt Morris, you have a problem.

Batters just don’t swing and miss much against the pitch. According to Joe Lefkwitz’s Pitch F/X Tool, Parra’s whiff rate with his four-seam fastball was 4.6 percent in 2009. The MLB average whiff rate for lefty four-seamers, by contrast, was 6.1 percent.

Does Parra throw “fat” strikes? I’m no Pitch F/X maestro, but I did my best to try and quantify what might constitute a fat pitch. Pitch F/X keeps track of a number called “px.” Here’s Mike Fast’s definition:

px: the left/right distance, in feet, of the pitch from the middle of the plate as it crossed home plate. The PITCHf/x coordinate system is oriented to the catcher’s/umpire’s perspective, with distances to the right being positive and to the left being negative.

Home plate is about two feet across. I classified pitches that were five inches to either side of the middle of the plate as “fat” pitches (I got the idea from Pitch F/X guru Harry Pavlidis , who does something similar). Here’s what I got:

MLB average “fat” percentage for lefty four-seam fastballs: 35.1%
Parra’s “fat” percentage for four-seam fastballs: 38.5%

Manny does seem to leave his heater down the middle more often than most. Parra is a good example of simple velocity not being everything for a pitcher: he sits at 92 MPH with his fastball, but gets few whiffs and tends to catch too much of the plate.

At this point, Manny Parra is a mystery wrapped in an enigma stuffed in a Chorizo. Here are his projections for the 2010 season (Parra, not the Chorizo):

CHONE: 159 IP, 7.3 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
Bill James: 147 IP, 7.96 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.59 ERA

Now 27, Parra has the skill set to be a mid-rotation starter, perhaps with a little upside. But he’s going to have to do a better job of locating his fastball in order to succeed. His surface numbers in 2009 are abysmal, but don’t totally write him off. With better location and a little luck, he could be a decent bargain in 2010.

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs swapped undesired contracts on Friday, as the M’s acquired OF/DH Milton Bradley for RHP Carlos Silva. Bradley is owed a combined $21M for the 2010-2011 seasons, while Silva is set to rake in $25M ($11.5M each in 2010 and 2011, plus a $2M buyout on a $12M mutual option for 2012). Apparently, Seattle will kick in $9M, saving Chicago $5M in the transaction.

(salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.)

Silva (he of a career 4.48 xFIP and a recent rotator cuff injury) isn’t of much concern to fantasy owners. But what’s left of Milton Bradley’s game? Let’s try to find out.

Bradley, of course, had a turbulent tenure on the North Side. He didn’t perform up to expectations in 2009, though he’s probably not responsible for global warming, swine flu and the financial collapse, as some Chicago columnists would have you believe.

The switch-hitter has long been a quality offensive player. His career wRC+ is 120, meaning Bradley’s wOBA in the majors is 20 percent better than average, once we account for park and league factors. Milton was an absolute machine in 2007 and 2008, posting wRC+ figures of 155 and 160, respectively. 2008 was the best year of his career, as Bradley set personal bests in home runs (22), Isolated Power (.242) and walk rate (16.2%). It was also just the second time in his career that he topped the 500 PA mark.

While Bradley annihilated pitchers in Arlington, we shouldn’t have expected a repeat of his monstrous ’08 campaign. His BABIP was an absurd .396, highest among all hitters. Milton’s Expected BABIP, by contrast, was .334. Bradley’s 2007-2008 power outburst was also well above his established level: his combined ISO over those two seasons was .241, compared to .170 from 2004-2006.

In a “down” 2009 season, Bradley was still above average with the bat (108 wRC+). He remained extremely patient at the plate (14.4 BB%). His pop, however, got lost at the airport terminal:

Milton’s ISO dipped to .140, his lowest mark since a 2001 season split between Les Expos and the Indians. During his 2007-2008 power surge, Bradley hit ground balls 40.4% of the time, while putting the ball in the air 37 percent. In ’09, his groundball rate rose to about 47 percent, while his fly ball rate fell to 33.3 percent.

During his banner ’08 season, Bradley had a humongous batting average on ground balls (remember that MLB-leading BABIP?) In ’09, not so much:

Bradley’s Batting Average on Ground Balls

2008: .323 BAVG (.242 AL AVG)
2009: .200 BAVG (.240 AL AVG)
Bradley’s Career Average: .228

Though Bradley was able-bodied enough to take 473 trips to the plate in 2009, he was rarely healthy. He battled quad, groin, hamstring, hip and knee ailments. Milton’s propensity to get dinged up was exacerbated by the lack of the DH. All of those bumps and bruises have taken a toll on Bradley’s wheels:

Bradley’s Speed Score, 2005-2009
2005: 5.1
2006: 4.9
2007: 4.5
2008: 3.2
2009: 2.6

Back in the AL, Bradley will likely patrol left field, while getting to rest his achy knees at least occasionally at DH. What can we expect out of Milton in 2010? CHONE projects a .369 wOBA, while Bill James forecasts a .365 wOBA. Thus far, the Fans call for a .373 wOBA.

Granted, Safeco Field is not a hitter’s haven by any means. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco depressed run scoring by 6 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. He’s not going to a great environment to get his power stroke back (95 HR park factor for lefty batters, 91 for righty hitters).

Still, Bradley (32 in April) has superb on-base skills. With a mild bounce back in the power category (not to his ’07-08 glory days, but around his career .172 ISO), he could be a pretty nice pickup for the Mariners and fantasy players.