Last July, the Cleveland Indians swapped long-time catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for three young talents. Nick Hagadone, a lefty with a wicked fastball/slider combo coming back from Tommy John surgery, was the premium prospect in the deal. Righty reliever Bryan Price, a 2008 supplemental first-rounder out of Rice, was a sweetener. But the guy expected to pay immediate dividends was Justin Masterson.

A 6-6, 250 pound specimen, Masterson was selected out of San Diego State in the second round of the 2006 draft. In its ’06 draft coverage, Baseball America noted Masterson’s peculiar path to pro ball. The Jamaican born-right-hander sprouted eight inches in high school and spent his first two college seasons at NAIA Bethel, in Indiana. BA liked his big frame and heavy low-90’s sinker, but believed that lagging secondary stuff (a slider and a changeup) might necessitate a move to the bullpen.

After punishing hitters out of the ‘pen at short-season Lowell during the summer of 2006 (31.2 IP, 33/2 K/BB, 4 R), Masterson made his full-season debut as a starter at High-A Lancaster in 2007.

Though the home of the JetHawks is notorious for gale-force winds and offensive explosions, Masterson didn’t flinch. In 95.2 innings in the California League, he posted rates of 5.27 K/9 and 2.07 BB/9, with a 3.45 FIP. He used that bowling ball sinker to get grounders at a 53.6 percent clip. Masterson earned a call-up to Double-A Portland during the summer, thoroughly dominating the competition: a 3.10 FIP in 58 innings, with 9.16 K/9, 2.79 BB/9 and a 68.3 percent groundball rate.

Following that huge campaign, Masterson moved up the prospect charts. Baseball America named him the fourth-best talent in a fertile Boston system, praising his “special sinker” that resigned righty batters to weakly chopping the ball into the dirt. However, BA thought that Masterson’s low-three-quarters arm slot led to an inconsistent slider, and that his changeup was rudimentary. A future in the bullpen again was predicted.

In 2008, Masterson split the year between the upper levels of the minors and the major leagues. He put the beat down on batters in 47.2 combined Double-A and Triple-A innings (spent mostly at Double-A), with a 2.91 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.21 BB/9 and 65.1% groundball rate.

With Boston, he tossed 88.1 frames, making 27 relief appearances and nine starts. He was a beast of out the bullpen, but had some problems controlling the zone when asked to navigate opposing lineups multiple times.

Masterson was 40 percent better than the league average against same-handed batters (60 sOPS+ vs. RHB). But lefties, getting a long look at the ball because of Masterson’s low arm slot, performed three percent better than average (103 sOPS+).

Overall, Masterson whiffed 6.93 batters per nine innings, with 4.08 BB/9 and a 4.26 xFIP. He continued to burn worms (54.2 GB%), but his 3.16 ERA was boosted by a very low batting average on balls in play (.243) and a high rate of stranding runners on base (83.3 percent). While Masterson’s run values were inflated somewhat because of that good fortune, his 90 MPH sinker (+0.79 runs per 100 pitches) and 81 MPH slider (+2.64) were strong offerings.

Between Boston and Cleveland this past year, Masterson again divided his time between starting and relieving (26 ‘pen appearances, 16 starts). He was excellent in short stints, with 9.76 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 and a 3.23 xFIP in 39.2 relief innings. Starting, he compiled marks of 7.63 K/9, 4.72 BB/9 and a 4.41 xFIP in 89.2 innings. Masterson’s overall line? 129.1 IP, 8.28 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, and a 53.6 percent groundball rate, with a 4.05 xFIP.

Masterson pitched similarly in relief and as a starter, chucking a 92 MPH sinker in excess of 70 percent of the time, while using a harder slider (84 MPH) nearly a quarter of the time. His changeup remained an afterthought, thrown just three percent. The sinker was about average (-0.05 runs per 100 pitches), with the slider a plus pitch (+1.12). That sinker/slider mix again led to a sizeable platoon split: righties had a feeble 65 sOPS+, but lefties teed off for a 127 sOPS+.

Twenty-five in March, Masterson enters 2010 with a couple of questions left unanswered: can he hone his control as a starter, and can he avoid being eaten alive by left-handed batters? The two questions are obviously interrelated, as you can see through Masterson’s career platoon splits:

vs. RHB: 114.2 IP, 8.48 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 3.48 xFIP
vs. LHB: 103 IP, 6.9 K/9, 5.42 BB/9, 4.86 xFIP

In terms of handling lefties, Masterson has a couple factors working against him. The same arm slot that makes him death on righty batters gives opposite-handed hitters ample opportunity to pick up the ball. Also, the same sinker/slider combo that eviscerates those right-handers isn’t near as effective against left-handers. Two-seam fastballs show a very large platoon split, as do sliders.

To Cleveland’s credit, the club appears to be giving Masterson every opportunity to prove that he can cut it as a starter in the majors. The soon-to-be 25 year-old is projected by CHONE to post a 4.27 FIP in 159 IP next year, with 7.47 K/9 and 4.02 BB/9. That performance would be worth around 2.1-2.2 Wins Above Replacement. Even if you think that Masterson will be a shut-down reliever, used often and in high-leverage situations (say, a 3.20 FIP in 80 innings, with a 1.5 Leverage Index), Masterson’s WAR would be around 1.7-1.8.

Right now, Masterson looks like a modestly above-average starter. It probably wouldn’t him hurt to try and add something to his arsenal that dips and fades away from lefties, though.

San Francisco Giants signed RHP Todd Wellemeyer to a minor league contract.

Wellemeyer gets a non-roster invitation to spring training, where he’ll try to crack San Francisco’s pitching staff as a long reliever. Chris Haft’s MLB.com article quotes Giants VP of baseball operations Bobby Evans as saying, “we’re looking at him right now more as a long man.” Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Zito fill the 1-4 spots in the rotation, and Madison Bumgarner, Joe Martinez and Kevin Pucetas are expected to compete for the fifth spot.

A former Cub, Marlin, Royal and Cardinal, Wellemeyer was a wild man in major league stints from 2003-2007. He appeared to turn a corner in 2008 with St. Louis, with 6.29 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP in 191.2 innings pitched. A low BABIP (.273) and a high rate of stranding runners on base (76.9%) suggested that Wellemeyer wouldn’t replicate his 3.71 ERA, but he entered 2009 with a steady big league job for the first time in his career.

Unfortunately, Wellemeyer was walloped. He was placed on the DL in August with right elbow inflammation, but the injury appeared to diminish his stuff for most of the season. In 122.1 IP, Wellemeyer whiffed 5.74 batters per nine innings, with his walk rate rising to 4.19 per nine frames. His xFIP was 5.21.

The 31 year-old’s average fastball velocity dipped from 92.3 MPH in 2008 to 91.5 MPH in ’09. That heater wasn’t especially effective in ’08 (-0.56 runs per 100 pitches thrown), but it was even worse this past season (-0.96 runs/100). Despite a one MPH dip in velocity, Wellemeyer’s slider remained sharp (+1.63 in ’08, +1.5 in ’09). His changeup was battered, though: -4.52 runs/100 pitches in 2009, compared to +1.25 the previous year. Wellemeyer’s contact rate increased from a league average 80.3% in ’08 to 82.8% in ’09, with his swinging strike rate declining from 9.2% in 2008 to 7.6% in 2009 (7.8 percent MLB average for starters).

Wellemeyer’s fantasy value is negligible at this point. He has one year of average pitching on his resume, surrounded by years of getting drubbed and a troubling history of elbow ailments. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, Wellemeyer missed a month and a half with an elbow sprain in 2007, and missed some time in 2008 with elbow inflammation as well.

New York Mets signed 1B Mike Jacobs to a minor league contract.

Jacobs, 29, will try to work his way into New York’s first base mix, which includes Fernando “two grannies in one inning” Tatis and Daniel “please don’t play me in left field” Murphy.

A former Mets farmhand shipped to Florida in the November 2005 Carlos Delgado deal, Jacobs is basically a fantasy landmine. Sure, he has power, and if you’re not careful, he’s the sort of player that can lull you into thinking he’s a decent option.

Following an abysmal season spent in Kansas City, the lefty batter has a career .335 wOBA. And, he has a 32 homer, 93 RBI campaign to his name, too. That sounds OK, right? Not for the position that he plays. The average first baseman posted a .350 wOBA in 2009, a level which Jacobs has never come particularly close to during his big league tenure.

He doesn’t control the strike zone, and as Jacobs’ splits page shows, lefties make him jelly-legged (career .281 wOBA in 449 plate appearances). Even if we regress that mark against southpaws toward the mean, Jacobs’ projected wOBA against left-handers is about .293, compared to .334 versus righties. In other words, he’s terrible against same-handed pitching, and a slightly above-average MLB hitter against right-handers. That doesn’t cut it at first base.

At first blush, Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Billy Buckner looks like a toxic fantasy option. After all, he’s an exiled Kansas City Royal who posted a-shield your eyes!-6.40 ERA in 2009. Why in the world should you care about William Jennings Bucker?

What if I were to argue that Buckner really didn’t pitch that poorly last season? That, in terms of the facets of pitching over which he has the most control, Bucker was actually pretty good? Crazy, right? Perhaps not.

Kansas City’s second round pick in the 2004 draft, Bucker has tossed 324 innings at the Triple-A level (51 starts, 15 relief appearances). Overall, the University of South Carolina product has punched out 6.9 batters per nine frames, with 3.2 BB/9 and a 3.82 Fielding Independent ERA.

Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are Buckner’s Major League Equivalent lines from 2007-2009, based on his Triple-A work:

2007: 105 IP, 6.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 48.2 GB%, 4.58 FIP
2008: 124 IP, 4.44 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 46.2 GB%, 5.01 FIP
2009: 106 IP, 7.24 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 GB%, 4.17 FIP

Those aren’t the numbers of some amazing, unrecognized pitcher, but they’re useful nonetheless. Buckner’s combined MLE from 2007 to 2009: a 4.65 FIP, with 5.96 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9.

Buckner bounced between Triple-A Tucson and Arizona last year, compiling a big league ERA that would make Daniel Cabrera giggle. But beneath the Boeing-level ERA, Buckner showed some promising skills.

In 77.1 innings pitched (13 starts, 3 ‘pen appearances), the 26 year-old struck out 7.45 batters per nine innings, issuing 3.38 BB/9. He also kept the ball down, generating grounders 48.8 percent of the time. Buckner’s xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was 3.95- nearly two and a half runs lower than his actual ERA.

What happened? For one, it seemed as though the D-Backs righty had seven Bill Buckners behind him, with Mookie Wilson perpetually at the plate (I know, I know-it was an error. But play along). Buckner’s BABIP was .347, the ninth-highest rate among pitchers working at least 70 frames.

In addition, his HR/FB rate was obscenely high: 16.7 percent of fly balls hit against Bucker left the yard, compared to the 11-12 percent major league average. Buckner’s rate of stranding runners on base, 63.2, was also out of whack. Perhaps he does struggle pitching from the stretch. But it seems unlikely that Buckner will have a strand rate seven to nine percent below the big league average again next year.

Buckner did a nice job of getting batters to go fishing, getting swings on pitches out of the strike zone 29.9 percent of the time (25% MLB average). His contact rate was 76.5 percent, below the 80-81 percent major league average.

Granted, he will have to combat Chase Field’s inhospitable environs: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase boosted run scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park over the past three seasons. But heading into 2010, Buckner figures to be Arizona’s fifth starter. CHONE projects a 4.45 FIP in 167 innings, with 6.84 punch outs per nine and 3.45 BB/9.

Billy Buckner won’t be on anybody’s draft list. In all likelihood, some of your fellow owners will think you’re just having some 80’s flashback if you mention the guy’s name. But Bucker could be a shrewd NL-only option if injuries send you scrambling to the waiver wire.

The 2010 season figures to be a year of transition and development for the Toronto Blue Jays. It will be year one A.H. (After Halladay), and the Jays have little chance of contending with the baseball super powers in the Bronx, Boston and Tampa.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA pegs the current Toronto roster for a last-place finish in the A.L. East, with a 72-90 record and a -91 run differential. An infusion of prospects (Brett Wallace, Kyle Drabek and Travis D’Arnaud chief among them) suggests better days may be ahead, but it will be an uphill climb to contention in a division where anything less than excellence won’t cut it.

Sans Halladay, the Blue Jays feature a youthful, lefty-laden rotation. While Marc Rzepczynski doesn’t have the draft pedigree of Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil, Toronto’s lesser-known southpaw could be a sleeper heading into the 2010 season.

A U.C. Riverside product, Rzepczynski was taken in the fifth round of the 2007 draft. The 6-1, 205 pounder missed a portion of his senior season with the Highlanders with elbow soreness, as well as a broken knuckle on his pitching hand. Baseball America liked Rzepczynski’s four-pitch mix, though, noting a tailing fastball sitting at 88-91 MPH, a low-80’s curve and slider, and an occasional changeup. While cautioning that command had always been “a major problem” for Rzepczynski, BA said he had middle-of-the-rotation potential.

The play-by-play announcer’s worst nightmare made his pro debut in the short-season New York-Penn League, where he posted rates of 9.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 45.2 innings pitched. Rzepczynski waged a ground assault on less experienced batters, using his sinker to the tune of a 65.6 percent groundball rate.

Prior to 2008, Rzepczynski checked in at #21 on Baseball America’s list of Blue Jays prospects. BA praised his 87-89 MPH sinker, boring in on same-handed hitters and occasionally cracking the low-90’s. Rzepczynski also featured a hard slider and a changeup. His “long, slinging arm action” from a three-quarters arm slot added life to his pitches, though the english on those offerings came at the expense of fine touch around the corners of the plate.

In ’08, Rzepczynski spent the whole year at Lansing of the Low-A Midwest League. Marc missed April with a fractured pitching hand, but he returned to screw with A-Ball hitters as a member of the Lugnuts. He authored a 2.60 FIP in 121 IP, punching out 9.2 hitters per nine innings and issuing 3.1 BB/9. While that microscopic FIP was influenced by a very low home run rate (0.15 HR/9), it’s hard to find many faults when a hurler is whiffing over a batter per inning while inducing grounders at a 66.5% clip.

Rzepczynski jumped up to ninth on Toronto’s prospect list leading up to 2009. BA noted that he pounded the bottom of the zone with an 88-90 MPH fastball, supplementing the sinker with a sharp low-80’s slider, an average changeup and a “show-me” curveball. They did voice some concern about the disconnect between Rzepczynski K rates and his stuff: “though he got plenty of swings and misses in low Class A, Rzepczynski lacks a true out pitch.”

This past year, Rzepczynski zipped from Double-A to the majors. He began 2009 in the Eastern League, compiling a 2.64 FIP in 76.2 innings with 10.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Rzepczynski’s stuff passed the two-level jump with flying colors, and he burned worms with a 61 GB%. After just two starts at Triple-A (11.1 IP, 16/4 K/BB), Rzepczynski reached the majors in early July.

In 11 starts and 61.1 innings with Toronto, the 24 year-old had a promising 3.70 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent ERA, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate). He struck out 8.8 hitters per nine frames, with 4.4 BB/9 and a 51.2 percent groundball rate. Not wanting Rzepczynski to zoom past the previous year’s innings pitched total (he threw 28.1 more IP in 2009 than in ’08), the Jays shut him down in early September.

Rzepczynski tossed his 88 MPH sinker 55 percent of the time with Toronto, going to his 80 MPH slider a whopping 39 percent and sprinkling in some 82 MPH changeups (six percent). It’s difficult to glean much from such a small sample size, but Rzepczynski scuffled with the sinker (-1.05 runs per 100 pitches) while baffling batters with the slider (+2.9 runs/100).

Control was an issue during his first big league stint, as Rzepczynski located just 42 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average). His first-pitch strike percentage was just 52.1 percent (58% MLB average). Despite the high strikeout rate, Rzepczynski’s contact percentage was about league average, at 80.4 percent.

In 2010, CHONE has Rzepczynski posting a 4.05 FIP, with 8.7 K’s per nine innings and 4.4 BB/9. It’s going to be interesting to see how his punchout rates translate long-term to the majors. Despite not having the archetypal power pitcher’s arsenal, Rzepczynski has deftly avoided lumber at each level of competition. His control needs work, but this lefty’s combination of whiffs and worm burners could make him The Dude to target late on draft day.

San Diego Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $3.5 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Torrealba, 31, is expected to split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley. Dusty Ryan, designated for assignment by the Tigers and picked up by the Padres in a December trade, is likely ticketed for Triple-A Portland.

In part-time play last year, Torrealba turned in his best offensive season since he was a Giant back in 2004. He batted .291/.351/.380 in 242 plate appearances with the Rockies. However, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll replicate that production in 2010.

Torrealba’s BABIP was .355 in 2009, compared to a .298 career mark in the majors. And clearly, the change in home ballparks is massive. When you take Coors Field into account, Torrealba’s ’09 production at the plate was still 16 percent worse than average (84 wRC+). His career wRC+ with Colorado is 77.

So, with plenty of extra hits dropping in and the benefit of Coors, Torrealba was still a tepid batter. Now, he’s going to cavernous Petco, anathema to all things offense. CHONE projects a .242/.301/.353 line in 2010, with a 73 wRC+.

Oakland Athletics traded LHP Dana Eveland to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.

A husky left-hander, Eveland has now been traded three times during his career. The Brewers’ 16th-round pick in the 2002 draft was swapped to the Diamondbacks in November of 2006, and then headed to Oakland in December of 2007 as a sweetener in the Dan Haren deal.

In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 26 year-old punched out 7.7 batters per nine frames, with 3.4 BB/9. He struggled in three cups of coffee in the majors from 2005-2007.

But Eveland tossed 168 frames in 29 starts with the A’s in 2008, with 6.32 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. There’s nothing awe-inspiring about that line, and he did often back himself into hitter’s counts (54.7 first-pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58-59% MLB average).

However, Eveland’s four-pitch mix garnered ground balls 48.7 percent of the time. His 90 MPH fastball was worth -0.31 runs per 100 pitches, with his high-70’s curve (-0.18) and low-80’s changeup (-0.49) also in the red. But Eveland’s bread-and-butter offering was a low-80’s slider, thrown over 23 percent of the time with a +1.76 run value per 100 tosses.

2009, by comparison, was a disaster. In 44 frames with Oakland, Eveland struck out just 22 batters and issued 26 free passes. He wasn’t 7.16 ERA-level bad, but that 5.20 xFIP was still plenty grim. Eveland’s fastball velocity dipped to 88.7 MPH. At Triple-A Sacramento, the southpaw posted rates of 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, with a 4.33 FIP in 124 innings.

There’s little downside from Toronto’s perspective, as they pick up the recently DFA’d Eveland at little cost. If he can find the form that allowed him to pitch at a league-average level in ’08, Eveland could fight for a spot at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation. It’s an awfully crowded competition, however. His CHONE forecast for 2010? A 4.59 FIP in 144 innings, with 5.44 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9.

Washington Nationals signed INF Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $2 million club option for the 2011 season.

Kennedy will man second base for the Nationals, meaning that Cristian Guzman will remain at shortstop for the time being and that Ian Desmond does not have a defined role with the club at the outset of the 2010 season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Rays last year, Kennedy was traded to the A’s and split his time between second and third base. In 587 PA, Kennedy batted .289/.348/.410 with a 108 wRC+. He nabbed 20 bases in 26 attempts to boot.

Kennedy didn’t come anywhere near that offensive level from 2006 to 2008 (a combined 77 wRC+), and he turned 34 in January. It’s not surprising, then, that the projection systems aren’t too fond of him: CHONE calls for an 89 wRC+, as does Marcel. Given his multi-position eligibility and ability to swipe some bags, Kennedy could have a tiny bit of value in NL formats early next season. Just don’t expect an ’09 repeat.

Toronto Blue Jays signed RHP Kevin Gregg to a one-year, $2.75 million contract, with a pair of club options.

According to Jordan Bastian’s MLB.com report, Gregg’s pact has two different club options. After next season’s Fall Classic, the Jays can do any of the following: say sayonara, retain Gregg at $4.5 million for 2011 or pick up a two-year option covering 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75 million. Gregg qualified as a Type A free agent, but the Cubs didn’t offer him arbitration. Thus, no draft pick changes hands.

The bespectacled, 31 year-old right-hander saw his ERA rise from the mid-three’s in 2007 and 2008 to a mediocre 4.72 mark this past year. However, a closer look at Gregg’s peripherals suggests his ’09 might have actually been better than the two previous seasons.

Gregg whiffed 9.31 batters per nine innings with Chicago, issuing 3.93 BB/9. The K rate was the second-best figure of the former Angel, Marlin and Cub’s career, and the walk rate was his lowest since 2006. He garnered more outside swings in ’09 (26.1%) than at any other point in his big league career. His BABIP wasn’t high (.277), nor was his rate of stranding runners on base very low (73.5). So, what’s the deal with the ERA?

Home runs. An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 39 GB%), Gregg had very low home run per fly ball rates in 2007 (5.9%) and 2008 (4.4%). In ’09, a whopping 15.3 percent of fly balls hit against Gregg became souvenirs. For comparison, the big league average is usually around 11-12 percent.

He was fortunate in ’07 and ’08, and had lousy luck in ’09. These things happen with relievers tossing 60-80 frames per year: a couple extra wall-scrapers are hit against a guy, and his overall line suffers. Gregg’s xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, was 4.16 in 2009. That was actually lower than ’07 (4.74) and ’08 (4.59).

Gregg doesn’t have the stuff typically associated with a late-game reliever. He’s a three-pitch guy, tossing a 91-92 MPH fastball (+0.67 runs/100 career), a low-80’s slider (+0.11) and the occasional mid-80’s splitter (+1.13). Over the past couple of years, Gregg has thrown fewer fastballs, mixing in more sliders instead. Perhaps as a result, Gregg’s percentage of pitchers within the zone has decreased. His InZone% was 50.4 in 2007, 49.5 in 2008 and 44.8 in 2009 (49-51% MLB average).

In Toronto, Gregg will compete with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor for save ops, assuming neither of those two are bartered before Opening Day.

Downs, 34 in March, is a groundball-centric lefty who uses a 89-90 MPH sinker with hellacious tailing action in on southpaw batters, as well as a big-breaking mid-70’s curveball. Downs has moved in the opposite direction as Gregg, progressively tossing more fastballs (from 63% in ’07 to 74% in ’09). He has a three-year xFIP of 3.38. Downs’ 2009 season was interrupted by a left foot injury that required surgery, as well as a strained right hamstring.

Frasor, 32, is a diminutive righty who pumps 93-94 MPH gas. That fastball has been a plus offering, with a career +0.94 run value per 100 pitches. He also features an average low-80’s slider (+0.02), with a few changeups/splitters sprinkled in. Frasor’s three-year xFIP is 4.01.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for our three closer contenders:

Gregg: 67 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 4.32 FIP
Downs: 49 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.67 FIP
Frasor: 51 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

Gregg figures to rebound somewhat next season, but intermittent control and fly ball proclivities make him an iffy high-leverage reliever. Toronto’s ninth-inning situation bears watching over the next couple of months.

Minnesota Twins signed 2B Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million contract.

O-Dog might not be the same caliber glove man that he was during his days with the Blue Jays (-3.3 UZR/150 over the past three seasons), but the switch-hitter has shown improvement at the plate in his early thirties. You could pretty much set your watch to Hudson’s bat over the past three years: a 114 wRC+ in 2007 and 2008, and a 112 wRC+ in 2009.

His triple-slash line this past year (.283/.357/.417) looks less impressive than his work with the D-Backs, but that’s mainly the result of park factors. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Arizona’s Chase Field boosted run-scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009, increasing doubles by 20 percent and triples by a stunning 73 percent. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, has increased runs by four percent, inflating two-baggers by five percent and decreasing triples by 29 percent.

The 32 year-old doesn’t possess one standout skill at the plate. But he has a good eye, with a 10.2 percent walk rate from 2007-2009, and a 19.2 Outside-Swing% (25% MLB average). Hudson’s not an over-the-fence threat, with single-digit HR totals the past couple years, but he hit enough doubles to post a .142 ISO from ’07 to ’09. It is worth nothing that Orlando hit more worm-burners than usual with the Dodgers:

His groundball rate was 55.8 percent, compared to a career 49.9 GB%. If that trend persists, that portends to less pop for Hudson.

Here are Hudson’s projections for the 2010 season:

CHONE: 103 wRC+
Bill James: 106 wRC+
Fans: 108 wRC+
Marcel: 111 wRC+

It’s hard not to like this move for the Twins, as the club adds a 2+ win second baseman at a bargain price. Hudson isn’t a top-tier fantasy option, but he seems like a good bet to be 5-10 percent better than average with the lumber next year.

Seattle Mariners signed 1B/DH Ryan Garko to a one-year, $550,000 contract with $525,000 in possible incentives.

Garko, 29, was non-tendered by the Giants earlier this off-season. So, to recap, San Francisco jettisons Garko (whom they acquired from Cleveland last summer for lefty pitching prospect Scott Barnes) to sign a more expensive, likely inferior first baseman in Aubrey Huff. Huh?

While Garko’s pact with the M’s is a one-year deal, the club retains his rights through the 2012 season, as he’s arbitration-eligible in 2011 and ’12 as well.

The righty batter has a career .279/.351/.441 triple-slash, with a 113 wRC+ and a .162 Isolated Power figure. In a 2009 season split between the Indians and Giants, Garko had a 107 wRC+.

Garko is presumably being brought in to thump lefty pitching, getting some time at first base in place of Casey Kotchman and at DH when either Milton Bradley or Griffey Jr.’s ghost aren’t occupying the spot.

Here are Garko’s splits during the course of his big league career, viewed through the scope of sOPS+. The Baseball-Reference stat compares a hitter’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 is above-average for batters.

Garko’s splits, 2006-2009

Sure, Garko has been better vs. southpaws, but it’s not as though he’s totally helpless against same-side pitching.

Of course, first base and DH types are supposed to mash, not merely hold their own: the offensive bar at those spots is extremely high. By comparison, Garko comes up a bit short as an everyday option. CHONE projects a .268/.343/.438 line in 2010, with a 110 wRC+.

For reference, the overall MLB line at first base last year was .277/.362/.483, while the overall DH triple-slash was .264/.347/.447. Also, keep in mind that hitters may lose some effectiveness while DHing. In The Book, Tom Tango found that batters perform about 4-5 runs worse per 600 PA at DH, compared to when they play a position on the field.

Garko doesn’t figure to hold significant fantasy value, given his part-time status and good, not great bat at the low end of the defensive spectrum.

Cincinnati Reds signed SS Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $3 million contract with a $3 million option for the 2011 season ($1 million buyout).

There’s no word yet if the option is for the player or for the club, but it’s likely a player option. Cabrera turned 35 in November, and he’s coming off of a 2009 season split between the A’s and the Twins in which he batted .284/.316/.389. Once park and league factors are accounted for, that offensive performance was 11 percent below average (89 wRC+), nearly a perfect match for his career 90 wRC+.

Cabrera has been average or better with the bat just twice in his career: 2003 (115 wRC+; viva Les Expos!) and 2007 (100 wRC+ with the Angels). However, he did at least provide fantasy players with 20-plus steals a year, and at a nifty success rate (78.9 percent career).

O-Cab’s speed appears to be waning, though. He swiped 27 bags in 30 attempts (90 success rate) in 2006, with a 5.7 Speed Score (the MLB average is about five). Cabrera hasn’t been as aggressive since then:

2007: 20 SB/4 CS (83.3%), 5.1 Speed Score
2008: 19 SB/6 CS (76%), 4.5 Speed Score
2009: 13 SB/4 CS (76.5%), 4.7 Speed Score

Cabrera is an upgrade over home-grown option Paul Janish at the plate, as CHONE projects an 89 wRC+ from Orlando and a 77 wRC+ from the 27 year-old Janish.

Whether Cabrera is a better player overall, however, depends on how you evaluate the two defensively. Janish posted excellent TotalZone ratings in the minors, and CHONE considers him about a +7 defender in full-time duty. Cabrera rated poorly in 2009 no matter what defensive metric you employ, but I have a hard time stomaching CHONE’s -15 projection for him. Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Boxscore has Cabrera projected as an average defender in 2010. If that’s the case, then O-Cab figures to be about a 1.8-1.9 WAR player as a full-time starter, compared to roughly 1.7 WAR for Janish. This looks like a lateral move for Cincinnati.

Cabrera should only be on your radar if you’re in a deep NL-only format.

Colorado Rockies signed INF Melvin Mora to a one-year, $1.275 million contract.

Turning 38 this month, Mora played with Baltimore since a July 2000 trade shipped him from the Mets to Orioles. He compiled a 103 wRC+ from 2006-2008, but slipped to an 82 wRC+ in 2009 while battling a hamstring injury. Mora’s ISO dipped to .098 last year, as fastballs gave him fits. Since 2002, Mora has a +0.59 run value per 100 pitches against heat. But in ’09, he was at -0.93 runs per 100 pitches. That was the 7th-worst mark in the majors among batters with 450+ plate appearances.

CHONE projects an 88 wRC+ for Mora in 2010. Going to the NL and to the best hitter’s venue in the game can’t hurt, but his fantasy value appears limited. He’s being touted as an across-the-diamond utility type, but it’s been years since Mora saw substantial time at a position other than third base.

St. Louis Cardinals signed LHP Rich Hill to a minor league contract.

The memories of Hill’s 2006 and 2007 seasons with the Chicago Cubs become hazier with each passing day. The 6-5 left-hander with the slow, looping curveball had a 4.51 xFIP in 99.1 innings during ’06, whiffing 8.15 batters per nine frames and walking 3.53 per nine. In Triple-A that year, he terrorized the PCL to the tune of 12.15 K/9, 1.89 BB/9 and a 1.67 FIP in 100 IP. 2007 was even better, as Hill logged 195 frames with the Cubs. He posted rates of 8.45 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9, with a 4.13 xFIP.

The University of Michigan product was an extreme fly ball hurler (34 GB% from 2006-2007), but his high-80’s heater had positive run values both seasons (+0.22 runs per 100 pitches in ’06, +0.66 in ’07), while his curve rated as -0.26 in ’06 and +0.53 in ’07.

Then, the wheels fell off. Hill scarcely pitched in 2008, as he was sidelined with back problems. He issued 18 free passes in 19.2 innings with Chicago, and walked 44 batters in 47.2 IP between Rookie Ball, High-A and Triple-A.

Shipped to the Orioles last February, Hill missed the first two months of the season with a left elbow strain and continued to have Blassian issues finding the strike zone. In 57.2 frames with Baltimore, Hill struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings but walked an obscene 6.24 per nine. His xFIP was 5.69, as he tossed a first-pitch strike just 46.9 percent of the time (58-59% MLB average). That was the lowest rate among all big league pitchers throwing at least 50 innings. In August, Hill went under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder.

Thirty years old in March, Hill is now a broken, control-challenged project. He’s a long shot to contribute, but New Busch smiles upon fly ball-centric pitchers: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Busch has decreased homer production by 20 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009, while deflating run scoring by seven percent.

Chicago Cubs signed INF Chad Tracy to a minor league contract.

The last time Tracy played regularly was 2006, when he turned in a 102 wRC+ with Arizona. Since then, the 29 year-old lefty batter has been injury-prone and ineffective. Tracy was placed on the DL with an oblique strain and right knee tendinitis in 2007. He had microfracture surgery in September of ’07, which sidelined him until May of 2008. This past year, Tracy again hit the DL with an oblique strain.

From 2007-2009, the erstwhile D-Back authored an 86 wRC+. For 2010, CHONE offers an 84 wRC+ projection, while the fans envision a 92 wRC+. Even if he cracks the 25-man roster this spring, Tracy doesn’t figure to see much playing time with the Cubs.

New York Yankees traded INF Mitch Hilligoss to the Texas Rangers for OF Greg Golson.

Golson’s really fast and….did I mention he’s fast? The 24 year-old was once a warmly regarded prospect in the Phillies’ system, but a fatal lack of strike zone control has wrecked his career prospects. Golson did swipe 20 bags in 24 attempts for Triple-A Oklahoma. Unfortunately the former first-rounder “batted” .258/.299/.344, walking 5.8 percent and whiffing 23 percent. During his minor league tenure, Golson has a .263/.308/.395 triple-slash, drawing ball four 5.5 percent and striking out 26.5 percent. He’ll aspire to become the next Freddy Guzman.