By the time a top prospect graces a major league field, avid fans can recite just about any detail regarding that player. Height, weight, round drafted (or country signed from), minor league stats, scouting reports, what he likes to eat for lunch..you name it, and it’s known.

With fantasy players going to CIA-like lengths to get the scoop, looking to identify The Next Big Thing before anyone else, expectations for those prospects soar. Sometimes, those players scuffle at first, get hurt or don’t get an opportunity to play every day. They fade from a person’s consciousness, as attention is turned to the next crop of “can’t miss” youngsters.

Today, I’d like to turn your attention back toward some names that everyone swooned over a few years back, but have yet to reach their potential for one reason or another. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Lineup, with CHONE projections for the 2010 season included.

Catcher

J.R. Towles, Astros

CHONE: .252/.332/.409, .326 wOBA

Towles’ minor league track record suggests that he could be better than the average backstop with the bat, but a string of injuries, an ugly line in a small amount of big league playing time (largely the product of a .218 BABIP) and the presence of 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro have torpedoed his status within the organization. It’s difficult to find a guy capable of league-average offense at catcher, so the 26 year-old shouldn’t be written off just yet.

First Base

Jeff Clement, Pirates

CHONE:.264/.342/.460, .350 wOBA

Formerly a catcher, Clement was viewed as a franchise-type player when the Mariners selected him with the third pick in the 2005 draft. However, knee injuries and spotty receiving skills caused him to fall down the defensive spectrum. Now that he’s apparently through strapping on shin guards, Clement will need to slug his way to a big league career at first base. He’s a career .279/.368/.492 hitter in 1,500+ plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Clement, 26, figures to get his first crack at an everyday job if Pittsburgh feels comfortable with Garrett Jones in right field.

Second Base

Sean Rodriguez, Rays

CHONE: .241/.327/.447, .338 wOBA

Snagged from the Angels in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez has beat the bejesus out of the baseball in Triple-A (.298/.396/.620 line in 750 PA), though Salt Lake City (the Halos’ highest minor league affiliate) is a cozy place for a batter to take his cuts. The 25 year-old doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time, but he has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield. With Tampa, Rodriguez will perhaps fill in at the keystone when Ben Zobrist plays the outfield, while catching an occasional start at other positions when a regular needs a breather.

Shortstop

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates

CHONE: .257/.303/.389, .304 wOBA

Slim pickings here. That CHONE projection would actually constitute a great leap forward for the former Cub and Mariner, who has a career .272 wOBA in the majors. Cedeno just plain hasn’t been able to handle big league fastballs to this point: per 100 pitches, he has been two runs below average when a pitcher reaches back and fires. He has hacked first and asked questions later, too, chasing 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Cedeno, 27, will “battle” Bobby Crosby in spring training for a starting spot.

Last we heard, both Ronny and Bobby are trying to board Oceanic Flight 815, hoping to crash on the “The Island” back in 2004. I’m not sure that even Jacob or The Man in Black could help these two, though.

Third Base

Alex Gordon, Royals

CHONE: .267/.353/.435, .350 wOBA

The fervor surrounding Gordon never reached Wieters-esque levels, but the Golden Spikes Award Winner and Nebraska star was supposed to mash from the moment the K.C. home crowd gave him a standing ovation in 2007. Gordon’s ’09 campaign was marred by a hip injury, but it’s important to keep in mind that a “disappointing” major league performance to this point has resulted in a 98 wRC+ (two percent below the MLB average).

The 26 year-old lefty batter must show improvement versus breaking stuff, particularly of the southpaw variety, but CHONE projects an offensive showing that’s 14 percent better than the big league average next season (114 wRC+).

Outfield

Wladimir Balentien, Reds

CHONE: .265/.342/.487, .358 wOBA

Traded from the Mariners to the Reds last year, Balentien is a hulking righty hitter who has impaled pitchers at Triple-A (.283/.359/.534 in 819 PA) and flailed in the majors (.221/.281/.374 in 559 PA, with a 72 wRC+). He hasn’t exactly crushed fastballs. But against curves and sliders, Wlad has looked like a beer league softball player who hit the kegs a little overzealously in the early innings. His contact rate to this point is a Custian 69.8 percent (80-81% MLB average).

Still, Balentien is a 25 year-old with a good record in the high minors. He’ll fight for playing time in left field with a laundry list of others, including Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes, and possibly Chris Heisey.

Delmon Young, Twins

CHONE: .305/.339/.454, .346 wOBA

Remember “Delmon Young, the next Albert Belle“? The first overall pick in the 2003 draft earned the adoration of prospect mavens by throttling pitchers at minor league levels where he was several years younger than the competition. Sure, his strike zone was expansive, but it was easy to dream of a day when he’d be an all-around force at the plate.

Now 24, Young enters the 2010 season with a career 95 wRC+ in the majors. The problems: a tendency to swing at anything from North Dakota to Wisconsin (career 40.4 Outside-Swing% and a four percent walk rate) and roll over the ball (50 percent groundball rate). It also doesn’t help that he has played DH-worthy defense (career -18.9 UZR/150 in LF). He’s not doomed yet, but there’s a good chance that he’s the next Jose Guillen instead of the next Belle

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

CHONE: .284/.345/.423, .338 wOBA

Once a premium center field prospect with the Mets, Milledge is now a left fielder on his third organization. His career wRC+ is just 93, as he has often strayed from the zone (31.6 Outside-Swing%) and rarely popped the ball over the fence or into the gaps (.132 ISO). The soon-to-be 25 year-old doesn’t project as a standout defender, so he’ll need to up the offensive ante in Pittsburgh. Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez both have ETAs of late 2010 or early 2011.

With the departure of delicate-yet-dominant righty Rich Harden via free agency, the Chicago Cubs have an open competition at the back end of the rotation. The candidates range from toxic (Carlos Silva) to infuriating (Jeff Samardzija) to intriguing (Tom Gorzelanny). Here’s a brief run-down of the hurlers vying to take the ball every fifth day for the Cubbies.

Picked up in the Milton Bradley deal with the Mariners, Silva should come with a Mr. Yuck sticker attached to him. The sinker-centric right-hander, 31 in April, was formerly a serviceable starter with the Twins, using pinpoint control (career 1.71 BB/9) to overcome an inability to make batters whiff (3.78 K/9).

The M’s inked Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract prior to the 2008 season, and he’s been beaten like he stole something ever since. An incredibly high BABIP and low strand rate masked what was another Silva-esque performance in ’08 (6.46 ERA, 4.64 xFIP), but he went on the DL with right biceps tendinitis in August. In 2009, he threw 30.1 grisly innings (5.53 xFIP) before succumbing to a right rotator cuff injury that limited him to just two more major league appearances. CHONE projects a 4.67 FIP next year. Even if he returns to form, he’s not a fantasy option.

Like Silva, Samardzija has come to be defined by the big bucks handed out for his services. The Cubs gave the former Notre Dame wide receiver a $10 million big league contract to eschew the NFL. Several years later, Chicago still isn’t sure what it has in the 25 year-old righty.

Samardzija had an underwhelming full-season debut in 2007, punching out 4.1 batters per nine innings, walking 2.8 per nine and posting a 4.73 FIP in 141.2 IP between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. Baseball America liked his heater for its combination of velocity and sink, but panned his inconsistent slider and changeup/splitter. “Samardzija,” BA said, is “still capable of becoming a frontline starter, a closer or a bust.”

In 2008, Samardzija missed more bats, but at the expense of control. Tossing 113.1 innings split between Double-A and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, he had 6.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and a 4.60 FIP. The Golden Domer also logged 27.1 major league innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen, with 8.13 K/9, 4.88 BB/9 and a 4.34 xFIP.

This past year, Samardzija shuttled between Iowa and Chicago. In 89 frames at Triple-A, he struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings, issuing 2.73 BB/9 and compiling a 4.37 FIP. His major league stints didn’t go nearly as well. Samardzija was smacked for a 5.16 xFIP in 34.2 IP, with 5.45 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.

Samardzija’s low-80’s slider (+0.17 runs per 100 pitches in the majors) and mid-80’s splitter (+0.95) have been effective, but his 93-94 MPH fastball (-1.09) hasn’t been as advertised. CHONE’s projection for Samardzija comes in relief, and it’s not especially sunny: a 4.74 FIP, with 6.92 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9. If you tack something like 0.75 to one run on to that to account for a shift in roles (The Book found that relievers shifting into starting roles generally perform about one run worse per nine innings), then things start getting ugly. Samardzija might be best off pitching in short stints.

Gorzelanny, meanwhile, was once a prized prospect in the Pirates organization. Armed with low-90’s velocity and a sharp slider, the left-hander displayed an exciting combo of force and finesse as he climbed the minor league ladder.

He pitched adequately in the bigs in 2006 and 2007 (with xFIPs of 4.88 and 4.82, respectively). However, a hefty workload in ’07 seemed to sap Gorzelanny of his former stuff: his fastball fell to the 88 MPH range and he walked nearly six batters per nine innings in 2008, posting a 5.84 xFIP in the process. He was booted to Triple-A in July (where he showed a pulse: 35 IP, 33/4 K/BB, 2.11 FIP) and suffered a left middle finger injury that sidelined him in September.

This past season, Gorzelanny started games at Triple-A Indianapolis, mopped up and got spot-starts for the Bucs in the majors, and was shipped to Chicago (along with LHP John Grabow) for righties Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, plus minor league INF Josh Harrison. The Cubs also split Gorzo’s appearances between the bullpen and the rotation.

The 27 year-old performed admirably at the Triple-A level, whiffing 8.79 per nine innings, walking 3.1 and compiling a 2.87 FIP in 87 innings. In 47 major league innings (seven starts, 15 relief appearances), Gorzelanny pleasantly punched out a batter per inning, while handing out 3.26 walks per nine with a 3.73 xFIP. His fastball velocity crept back up to 91 MPH. For 2010, CHONE forecasts a 4.43 FIP for Gorzelanny as a starter, with 7.39 K/9 and 3.61 BB/9.

It’s worth nothing that while “who’s the fifth guy?” makes for good spring training copy, every team ends up relying on those sixth, seventh and even eighth starters at some point. With Big Z becoming familiar with the DL (shoulder in ’08, hamstring and back in ’09) and Ted Lilly working his way back from knee and shoulder ailments, odds are that Chicago’s starting depth will be tested. Gorzelanny’s revived repertoire makes him the best best of those back-end options.

Ever since the Los Angeles Dodgers took him with the 19th overall pick in the 2002 draft, first baseman James Loney has been expected to develop power to complement a fluid, high-contact swing.

The 6-3, 220 pound lefty batter rarely hit with authority in the minor leagues, putting up a cumulative .296/.363/.430 triple-slash and a mild .134 Isolated Power. Loney reached L.A. in 2006, and he actually made those scouts look prescient by putting a charge into the ball in limited playing time in both ’06 and 2007. Since then, however, Loney’s power has been sorely lacking:

Here are Loney’s ISO and wRC+ figures during his big league career:

2006: 111 PA, .275 ISO, 132 wRC+
2007: 375 PA, .206 ISO, 140 wRC+
2008: 651 PA, .145 ISO, 106 wRC+
2009: 652 PA, .118 ISO, 104 wRC+

Over the past two seasons, the 25 year-old has the lowest ISO among first basemen (.132). It’s not particularly close, either: Todd Helton (.149 ISO) and Billy Butler (.163 ISO) are the next low men on the first base power totem pole.

As one might expect, Loney pulls the ball less than the average lefty batter, while hitting more to the opposite field (data courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

The pull field (right field for Loney) is where most batters put up their power numbers. Loney is no different. Actually, he has been outstanding when he laces the horsehide to right field. But, in addition to pulling the ball less often and hitting to the relatively punch less opposite field more than most, Loney has been well below-average on pitches hit up the middle:

As you can see, the pull field is where it’s at for batters (sorry, Mr. Bernazard). The average lefty hitter posts a .399 wOBA on pulled pitches, .360 to center and .316 to left field. Loney is a monster when he pulls (.430 wOBA), and he’s slightly above-average to left (.319 wOBA-but again, opposite field hitting is weaker overall, and Loney hits more pitches in that direction than the average lefty). But to center, his bat barely makes a peep (.325 wOBA).

Loney does make scads of contact. During his career, he has put the bat on the ball 93.5 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 74.4 percent on offerings tossed out of the zone (60-61 percent MLB average). His contact rate is the 20th-highest in the majors over the past two seasons. However, that contact-oriented approach likely comes at the expense of extra-base clout.

He did do a better job of laying off junk pitches last year, which led to a career-high 10.7 percent walk rate. But even with an improved eye, he posted a .281/.357/.399 line at a position where the overall line was .277/.362/.483.

For 2010, CHONE projects Loney to hit .294/.355/.446 (116 wRC+). Those are essentially his career numbers to this point: .295/.354/.451, with a 114 wRC+. Loney’s RBI totals might lull fantasy players into thinking he’s a good option, but relative to the position that he plays, L.A.’s first baseman just hasn’t stacked up thus far. While he’s still young enough to show further improvement, Loney needs to lash the ball more frequently in order to truly be an asset.

The first three spots in the Houston Astros’ rotation are locked up. Ol’ reliable, Roy Oswalt, will be followed by Wandy Rodriguez and free agent pick-up Brett Myers.

Contenders for the back of the rotation include Brian Moehler, Wesley Wright, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino. Both for the short and long term, the Astros (and fantasy owners) would be best off if Norris and Paulino snag those last two spots.

Norris, who turns 25 tomorrow, was Houston’s sixth-round pick in the 2006 draft. A short, stout righty (6-0, 225 pounds), Norris was tabbed as a future late-inning reliever because of his size and searing mid-90’s fastball. But while the Cal Poly product made his pro debut out of the ‘pen, he has been a starter ever since, as the Astros try to extract maximum value from one of the club’s few young building blocks.

In 340.2 minor league innings, Norris has struck out 9.5 batters per nine frames. His control hasn’t been particularly sharp, however, as he has issued 3.7 BB/9. This past year at Triple-A Round Rock, Norris notched 8.4 K/9, with four walks per nine innings and a 3.41 FIP.

Getting the big league call in late July, Norris slotted into Houston’s rotation (10 starts, one relief appearance). He tossed 55.2 innings, with 8.73 K/9, 4.04 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9 and a 4.38 xFIP.

Norris has a “hard, harder, hardest” repertoire, featuring a 94 MPH fastball, 87-88 MPH slider and an 86-87 MPH changeup. Opposing batters made contact 83.9 percent of the time against his stuff on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 75 percent of the time overall (80-81 percent average).

Bud’s bugaboos are free passes and fly ball tendencies. He has never really been known for painting the black, and while his groundball rate in the minors was 47.4 percent, he burned worms at a 37.2 percent clip in the majors. It’s probably best not to read too much into that number, given the sample size. But it bears watching, given that Minute Maid Park has inflated home run production by eight percent compared to a neutral ball park over the last three seasons.

CHONE projects Norris to compile a 4.40 FIP in 2010, with 8.43 K/9, 4.14 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9. He’ll miss bats, and he could be a nice addition to Houston’s staff if he can rein in the walks and not allow hitters to put that Minute Maid train in harm’s way.

Norris you probably buy. But Paulino, he of a career 6.40 ERA? Believe it or not, yeah. As Carson Cistulli pointed out earlier this off-season, there’s a big gap between Paulino’s results and the processes behind those results.

Inked out of Venezuela in 2001, Paulino is a 6-2, 260 pound leviathan who also comes equipped with radar gun readings that make scouts salivate. In addition to mid-90’s gas, he totes an upper-80’s slider, with an occasional mid-70’s curveball and mid-80’s changeup. He has punched out 8.4 batters per nine frames, with 4.4 BB/9 in 386.1 career minor league innings (71 starts, 32 relief appearances).

In the majors, Paulino has been pummeled. However, the 26 year-old’s peripherals paint the picture of a talented guy who’s been hosed by some terrible luck. In 116.2 innings (20 starts, eight ‘pen appearances), Paulino has 8.02 K/9, 3.39 BB/9 and a 4.23 xFIP. Yet, his ERA is nearly 2.4 runs higher, due mostly to a .353 BABIP and a 17.6 home run per fly ball rate. When a batter has put the ball in play against Paulino, hits have fallen as if Ichiro were perpetually at the plate. On fly balls, it’s as though Ryan Braun clones were lofting all of them. Those figures are bound to drop precipitously.

Like Norris, Paulino has been pretty hard to make contact against (85.1 Z-Contact, 74 Contact). And, like Norris, his biggest challenges will be honing his control and limiting those leisurely trots around the bases. CHONE envisions a 4.75 FIP for Paulino next year, with 7.81 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.35 HR/9.

The two have experienced some health problems. Norris was shut down a little early last year with right shoulder fatigue, and he missed some time in 2008 with a right elbow strain. Paulino missed nearly the entire 2008 season with a pinched nerve in his right shoulder, and served a DL stint for a right groin strain in 2009.

While neither hurler is a sure thing (is any pitcher?), Norris and Paulino have the punch out potential to be of use in NL-only leagues.

Fresh off of a 2009 season in which he posted 4.6 Wins Above Replacement, Felipe Lopez entered the off-season anticipating free agent riches. However, with general managers likely anticipating a healthy dose of regression, the 29 year-old found the market for his services to be downright chilly.

Aggravated that he remained without gainful employment for 2010, Lopez canned uber-agent Scott Boras earlier this month. Now, word is that Lopez has limped back to St. Louis (where he spent part of the 2008 season), inking a one-year, $1.75 million contract with performance-based incentives.

Splitting the ’09 season between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers, Lopez turned in his best offensive campaign since he was a Cincinnati Red back in 2005. In 680 plate appearances, the switch-hitter put up a .310/.383/.427 triple-slash. Adjusting for park factors and league difficulty, Lopez’s lumber was 16 percent above average (116 wRC+).

However, odds are that those numbers decline next season. Lopez has a decent eye at the dish and he’s not totally bereft of power, but his secondary skills are pretty ordinary. When he bats .310, he’s a valuable offensive player. But what about when he bats .270-.280?

Lopez had a .358 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) last season, compared to a career .320 BABIP. His expected BABIP (XBABIP), based on homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drive percentage and rate of fly balls, pop ups and grounders hit, was about .330.

If Lopez benefits from fewer duck snorts and seeing-eye singles next season, then he’s likely to hit something closer to his career .269/.338/.400 line and 97 wRC+. Here are his projections for 2010:

CHONE: .273/.344/.381, 97 wRC+
Marcel: .279/.349/.396, 99 wRC+
Bill James: .281/.352/.400, 103 wRC+

New Busch won’t do any favors in Lopez’s attempt to stave off regression to the mean: according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, the stadium has depressed run-scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three seasons, with a doubles factor of 93, a triples factor of 90 and a home run factor of 80.

Lopez has also lost some fantasy appeal by being a non-entity on the base paths over the past two seasons. Never a huge stolen base threat in the minors or in his first five years in the majors, Lopez swiped 44 bags in 56 tries in 2006, and 24 SB in 33 attempts in 2007. Since then, he stole eight bases in 16 attempts in 2008 and just six in 12 tries this past year. His Speed Score has gone from 6.2 in ’06 to 3.6 in ’09 (the MLB average is about five).

Just how much playing time Lopez receives with the Red Birds remains to be seen. Shortstop Brendan Ryan underwent right wrist surgery earlier this month, and he still has a ways to go in his recovery. Though Lopez has a career -11.2 UZR/150 at short, he could fill in there if Ryan’s rehab drags on. Also, Lopez provides insurance in case third base prospect David Freese (projected 108 wRC+ by CHONE) falters. He could spell second baseman Skip Schumaker against some lefties, too. Though he doesn’t figure to see a ton of time in the outfield, considering St. Louis’ Holliday/Rasmus/Ludwick alignment and his minimal experience running down balls, Lopez could get an occasional start as a fly-catcher.

Considering the investment size and Lopez’s versatility, the Cardinals should be praised for snagging a guy who could be a league-average starter at a bargain-basement price. Fantasy owners, however, would be wise not to expect Lopez to replicate his 2009 level of offensive production. As Carson Cistulli said about him in The 2010 Second Opinion, “Lopez is probably a better real-live baseball player than fantasy one.”

According to MockDraftCentral’s latest 5X5 Average Draft Position rankings, two National League first baseman sit back-to-back at spots 30 and 31. Both lefty batters are fresh off monstrous 2009 seasons, with one posting the third-best wOBA in the majors at first base, and the other ranking sixth at the position.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto and San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez seem to be valued about equally by fantasy players. Which one is the better bet headed into 2010?

Votto, 26, followed up a quality rookie season in 2008 (.373 wOBA) with a scorching sophomore campaign, trailing only a pair of Princes (Albert and Fielder) in wOBA with a .418 mark. Cincy’s second-round pick in the 2002 draft boosted his walk rate (from 10 percent to 12.9 percent) and his Isolated Power (.209 to .245), bashing all pitch types in the process.

While Votto is well-established as a premium offensive player, he will likely regress somewhat next year: his BABIP was .372. That number figures to fall back to the .340-.350 range, according to projection systems:

Votto’s projected 2010 BABIP

CHONE: .342
Bill James: .344
Marcel: .347
The Fans: .350

That would make Votto more of a .300-type hitter, as opposed to the .320+ guy we saw last season. A less extreme BABIP would result in a still-excellent wOBA in the .390’s (with the Bill James system forecasting a higher mark):

Votto’s projected 2010 wOBA

Marcel: .390
CHONE: .392
The Fans: .400
Bill James: .407

Gonzalez, meanwhile, mashed to the tune of a .402 wOBA in 2009. His walk rate and ISO improved each season from 2006-2008, but they skyrocketed this past year:

The 27 year-old drew ball four in 17.5 percent of his plate appearances last season (career 11 BB%), with a .274 ISO (career .225 ISO).

Of course, the pink elephant in the room when comparing Votto and Gonzalez is environment. Votto takes his cuts at Great American Ballpark (three-year park factor of 105 according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, with a HR park factor of 125). Gonzalez must confront Petco Park, which ravages offensive performance (three-year park factor of 76, with a HR park factor of 73).

Enter wRC+. The stat takes a hitter’s wOBA and adjusts it based on park and league factors, setting it on a scale where 100 is average and above 100 is above-average. On a context-neutral basis, Gonzalez edged out Votto in 2008. This past year, they were essentially equals:

2008
Votto: 126 wRC+
Gonzalez:135 wRC+

2009
Votto: 157 wRC+
Gonzalez: 158 wRC+

While wRC+ is a very useful metric in evaluating players in a context-neutral manner, we do have to give Votto some additional fantasy points and dock Gonzalez because of the drastic difference in home venues. Here are Gonzalez’s 2010 projected wOBAs:

Marcel: .376
CHONE: .383
Bill James: .383
The Fans: .395

Though Votto’s lofty BABIP and Gonzalez’s massive spikes in walk rate and ISO portend to some regression to the mean, both figure to be excellent first base options again next season. You can’t go wrong either way. But if I had a choice between the two, I would select Votto on the basis of his friendlier confines.

What do you think? Who’s the better option, Votto or Gonzalez?

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, the Detroit Tigers are close to signing free agent outfielder Johnny Damon to a one-year contract. Multiple sources indicate that the deal is worth $8 million.

Damon, 36, is coming off of a 2009 season in which he batted .282/.365/.489 in 626 plate appearances. Accounting for park and league factors, Johnny’s bat was 32 percent better than average (132 wRC+). That was the highest wRC+ of his career, just edging out his 130 mark in 2008.

The lefty batter’s career year at the plate was driven by a 24 home runs (tied with 2006 for the highest mark during his big league tenure) and a personal best .207 Isolated Power. Damon lofted the ball more than usual, hitting a fly ball 42.3 percent of the time (35 percent average since 2002), and 12.6 percent of those flys left the yard (9.4 percent average since ’02).

Not surprisingly, Damon’s power surge was predicated on his pulling the ball ferociously. Here are his splits by side of field from last season, as well as his splits from 2002-2009. I also included the league averages, taken from Dave Cameron’s post on Joe Mauer, for greater context:

Damon has generally been a very good pull hitter, but he went bonkers last season. As Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online shows, 23 of Johnny’s 24 bombs were hit to the pull side:

For those of you wondering, Damon’s HR distribution since 2002 breaks down as follows: one to left field, three to center and 129 to right field. About 97 percent of Damon’s dingers have been hit to the pull side over that time frame. Last year, AL batters hit 52.3 percent of their home runs to the pull field.

Johnny’s pull power surely wasn’t inhibited by New Yankee Stadium. In its inaugural year, the stadium inflated home run production by 26 percent compared to a neutral park. The HR park factor for lefty batters was 120, and 133 for right-handed hitters.

New Yankee Stadium received much attention for early-season power displays, and most fans probably think the park played like a bandbox. It’s wise not to glean too much from one year of data. But overall, the House That George Built wasn’t especially threatening to pitchers, decreasing run scoring by four percent according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook. There’s a tradeoff with all of those home runs: would-be doubles and triples that fall in at other stadiums find gloves in the Bronx (81 doubles factor, 50 triples factor).

For what it’s worth, Damon’s new home (Comerica Park) increased run production by five percent from 2007-2009. Comerica is homer-friendly (110 HR park factor), but much more so for righty batters (118 HR factor) than lefties (96 HR factor).

The big question with Damon, aside from, will he start rocking the cave man look again…

(picture from PicApp)

…is, what can we expect from him offensively in 2010? Just about no batters in their mid-thirties post career-best power numbers and then sustain that level of play. As such, it’s not surprising to see the projection systems calling for regression:

Bill James: .278/.355/.430, .152 ISO, 114 wRC+
CHONE: .270/.357/.432, .162 ISO, 116 wRC+

A simple Marcel projection spits out a similar line: .275/.353/.440, with a .165 ISO and a 117 wRC+.

Damon’s pending deal likely means that Carlos Guillen will spend more time at DH, with Ryan Raburn getting pushed back to the bench. Magglio Ordonez, meanwhile, will make stacks o’ cash in right field, though the separation between the $18 million man and the pre-arbitration Raburn looks slim:

2010 CHONE projections

Ordonez: .295/.362/.453, 120 wRC+
Raburn: .265/.339/.472, 116 wRC+

As for Damon, he remains a quality offensive player. But no one should be expecting a repeat of last season. According to MockDraftCentral, Johnny’s ADP is about 128, putting him in the same vicinity as Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez. You’d be better off pulling the trigger on either of those young, high-upside guys as opposed to Damon. Still, Detroit’s new left fielder is a good option, so long as your expectations are realistic.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, free agent first baseman Russell Branyan has inked a one-year, $2 million contract with the Cleveland Indians, which includes $1 million in performance incentives. The pact also has a $5 million mutual option for 2011.

Long a stat-head favorite for his prodigious power, keen eye and lack of playing time, Branyan comes full-circle by returning to the team that originally drafted him back in 1994. The 34 year-old has a career 114 wRC+, with a twelve percent walk rate and a .257 Isolated Power. But because he does something aesthetically displeasing (strike out) a ton, and has some issues with lefties (though he’s not terrible against them), Branyan has been traded five times and released twice. He’s been to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Seattle. He’s been everywhere, man.

Prior to the 2009 season, the lefty thumper signed a modest one-year contract with the Mariners. He cracked the 500 plate appearance mark for the first time in his career, batting .251/.347/.520 with 31 bombs and a 129 wRC+. Unfortunately, a herniated disk in his lower back ended his season in late August.

CHONE projects Branyan to hit .243/.335/.497 next year, with a 121 wRC+. Just how he fits into Cleveland’s plans remains to be seen, however. Branyan has experience playing all of the corner spots on the field, but he hasn’t played third base since 2008 and hasn’t roamed the outfield since 2007. Given the back ailment, he’s almost surely a first baseman only, while spotting for Travis Hafner at DH from time to time.

That opens up a couple of questions. Namely, what does Branyan’s signing meaning for Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley?

LaPorta (projected by CHONE for a 112 wRC+) has a big bat, but also has limited range and underwent hip and toe surgeries during the off-season. The Branyan deal could mean that LaPorta isn’t fully mended. Or, it could indicate that the Indians are still giving consideration to having LaPorta patrol left field next season (his Total Zone numbers in the minors suggest he’d be a liability). In that case, Brantley (projected 98 wRC+, with 26 SB) would have an uncertain role with the club.

There are many moving parts here. Pay close attention to Cleveland’s plans for Branyan, LaPorta and Brantley leading up to draft day. Given Hafner’s shoulder and Branyan’s back, there could be enough playing time for all of these guys to remain fantasy relevant.

Remember J.R. Towles? A few years back, Towles was the cream of a rather barren crop of Astros prospects. Baseball America rated the backstop as Houston’s top farm talent prior to the 2008 season, praising his diverse skill set and noting that the Astros envisioned Towles becoming the club’s first All-Star catcher since 1991, when Craig Biggio was blocking pitches instead of turning two.

Entering 2010, however, Towles’ career prospects are considerably dimmer. He made his big league debut in September of 2007, but two bitter cups of coffee in 2008 and 2009 have soured Houston’s opinion of its former prized pupil. And, if you listen closely, you can hear 2008 first-round pick Jason Castro breathing down Towles’ neck.

The Astros have received precious little from the catching position. In 2008, Houston had a collective .256 wOBA from those donning the tools of ignorance (29th in the majors). The team “improved” to .276 in 2009, rocketing up to 28th in the big leagues. Offensive ciphers like Brad Ausmus, Humberto Quintero and Ivan Rodriguez have been penciled into the lineup, as Towles toiled in Triple-A, on the bench or on the DL.

So, what’s going on here? Is Towles a bust, or have the Astros shot themselves in the foot by preferring veterans with slack bats? Who shot J.R.’s career? Let’s examine Towles’ history to figure out who done it.

Selected in the 20th round of the 2004 draft out of North Central Junior College, Towles basically spent the first three seasons of his pro career bashing and getting banged up.

He struggled in rookie ball during the summer of ’04, but batted a combined .327/.402/.534 in the Low-A South Atlantic in 2005 and 2006. Towles didn’t draw many walks (7.2 BB%) but he made frequent, loud contact (14.6 K%, with a .207 Isolated Power). Unusually agile for a catcher, Towles also earned some Jason Kendall comps by swiping 24 bases between ’05 and ’06 (he was caught 12 times, however).

However, Towles couldn’t answer the bell with any frequency. According to Baseball America, he needed surgery in 2004 after taking a foul tip off of his right index finger, slowing him at the start of 2005, and he dealt with right knee tendinitis in 2006.

Two-thousand seven turned out to be J.R.’s breakout campaign. He started slowly in the High-A Carolina League, but mashed after getting bumped up to the Double-A Texas League following Lou Santangelo’s 50-game PED suspension. He also logged some games in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

In 422 combined PA, spent mostly in Double-A, Towles hit .287/.393/.447. J.R. drew ball four 8.8 percent of the time, whiffing 13.5 percent with a .160 ISO. Towles stole 14 bags, but he did far more harm than good by getting nabbed 13 times. A late-season stint in Houston was fruitful (a 157 wRC+ in 44 PA).

Towles looked poised to ease the anguish of Astros fans subjected to way, way too much Ausmus and Quintero behind the plate. From ’07 to 2009, he compiled .289/.375/.455 triple-slash with Round Rock, walking 9.3 percent, striking out 15.5 percent and posting a .166 ISO.

Yet, after two dismal stints with Houston, Towles’ career line in the majors would make Ausmus puff out his chest: .188/.280/.329 in 268 PA, a performance which rates as 38 percent worse than average, once park and league factors are accounted for (62 wRC+).

Those numbers probably make fantasy owners want to run and hide. But those willing to give Towles a chance could snag a quality offensive catcher at a dirt cheap price.

Chill out about the major league performance. We’re talking about half of a season’s worth of PAs, spread over three years. Even if you want to slice and dice such a small sample (not a good idea), there are positives to be found. Towles has drawn a walk 8.2 percent, with a .141 ISO. His BABIP in the majors is unsustainably low, at .218.

The career .299/.390/.473 minor league hitter is projected by CHONE to bat .252/.332/.409 for the Astros in 2010. For reference, the overall line for MLB backstops last season was .254/.320/.395.

The 26 year-old has little star potential, and Castro (ranked as Houston’s top prospect) isn’t far off. Also, injuries remain a problem: according to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, J.R. was sidelined in both 2008 and 2009 with a strained hamstring, while missing time in ’09 with a fractured nose, too. But Towles figures to get the bulk of the playing time to start 2010.

Towles is far from a sure thing, given his propensity to get dinged up and Castro’s close major league ETA. Still, he has an interesting bat at a position where offense is often scarce. J.R. might not be long for Houston, but his career isn’t shot, either.

Washington Nationals signed RHP Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year contract.

Wang apparently passed his physical with the Nationals already, no small feat considering his recent injury woes. According to Chico Harlan of The Washington Post, Wang will earn a base salary of $2 million, with $3 million in possible incentives. Washington will retain the soon-to-be 30 year-old’s rights through the 2011 season, as the former Yankee has less than five years of big league service time.

From 2005-2007, Wang was a metronome on the mound. The 6-3 right-hander posted xFIP marks in the low-four’s, whiffing and walking few while using a low-90’s sinker to get groundballs by the bushel:

2005: 116.1 IP, 3.64 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 63.9 GB%, 4.20 xFIP
2006: 218 IP, 3.14 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 62.8 GB%, 4.16 xFIP
2007: 199.1 IP, 4.7 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 58.4 GB%, 4.23 xFIP

Wang’s sinker, thrown over three-quarters of the time, was worth +1.11 runs per 100 pitches in 2005, +0.83 in ’06 and +0.60 in ’07. He supplemented the pitch with a low-to-mid-80’s slider, which was hit hard during his first two seasons (-0.51 runs/100 in ’05 and -0.68 in ’06) but was sharp in 2007 (+2.27).

He missed more bats (relatively speaking) and issued more free passes in ’07, placing fewer pitches within the strike zone while continuing a trend of decreased contacts rates and increased outside swing percentages:

2005: 52.3 Zone%, 88.3 Contact%, 18.7 O-Swing%
2006: 54.5 Zone%, 86 Contact%, 20.2 O-Swing%
2007: 49 Zone%, 84.6 Contact%, 24.5 O-Swing%

Chien-Ming again struck out more batters at the expense of some extra walks in 2008. In 95 frames, Wang punched out 5.12 hitters per nine innings, with 3.32 BB/9 and a 55% groundball rate. He had both his sinker (+0.82 runs/100) and slider (+1.62) working. As former Rotographs writer Peter Bendix noted, Wang’s extra K’s and ball fours essentially canceled each other out: his xFIP was a characteristic 4.20.

Unfortunately, Wang’s 2008 campaign would be cut well short. He suffered a nasty right foot injury running the bases in a mid-June contest with the Astros. Wang didn’t go under the knife, but the extensive damage to his foot and an arduous rehab program to mend it ended his season.

And then, the wheels fell off in 2009. Wang was whooped in April, with an ERA matching A-Rod’s age. The righty was placed on the DL with hip weakness, which was claimed to be a cascade injury related to his foot ailment suffered the previous year.

He returned to the majors in late May, making a few relief appearances, but continued to get drubbed upon being returned to the starting five in June. Wang’s season came to a close following a Fourth of July outing, as he required surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right shoulder capsule.

As new Fangraphs scribe Joe Pawlikowski showed, Wang’s release point has gradually become higher. Perhaps as a result, he didn’t get the same level of tailing or sinking action on his fastball in 2009. Wang was still an extreme worm burner (53.3 GB%), but not to the same extent as in years past.

You don’t really need me to tell you that Chien-Ming wasn’t 9.64 ERA-level bad. In 42 innings, he posted rates of 6.21 K/9 and 4.07 BB/9, with a 4.55 xFIP. His BABIP was an astronomical .397, his rate of stranding runners on base was just 53.1 percent, and his HR/FB rate was 17.1 percent.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, Wang won’t take a big league mound until May at the earliest, as he continues to rehab his shoulder.

It’s difficult to say how Wang will come back from the procedure. But, given his strong groundball tendencies, it’s worth checking out the quality of leather in Washington’s infield. Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Boxscore released projected 2010 UZR totals (more on the methodology here). Here’s how the Nationals figure to line up next year:

1B: Adam Dunn , -13 UZR/150
2B: Adam Kennedy, +1 UZR/150
SS: Cristian Guzman, -3 UZR/150
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, +10 UZR/150

Zimmerman is a world-class defender at the hot corner. But Dunn is a butcher, and the middle infield combo of Guzman and Kennedy doesn’t scream “range.” Shortstop prospect Ian Desmond will likely enter the picture at some point. There’s obviously not much UZR data on him, but his Total Zone numbers in the minors are pretty grim.

Fantasy owners can only take a wait-and-see approach with Wang at this point. He’s a worthwhile proposition for the Nationals, a club with just one starter whom CHONE projects to crack two WAR in 2010. However, even at his peak in the Bronx, Wang was one of those “more valuable in real life than fantasy” type of hurlers, given the low K rates. He might be a NL-only option during the summer, but that seems to be the extent of his upside.