Protect your windshields, Braves fans: Jason Heyward’s potent lefty bat is coming to Turner Field. The Atlanta Braves officially announced that the best position prospect in the game will open the 2010 season as the club’s starting right fielder.

Just 20, Heyward has pummeled opposing pitchers since the Braves selected him with the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft. His all-around talents have earned the admiration of all the prospect mavens: Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law named the Georgia prep product the best talent in the minors, while Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranked him number two. John Sickels gave Heyward (who would be a junior had he attended UCLA) an A grade.

The 6-4, 220 pound man-child made his full-season debut in 2008, spending almost the entire year at Low-A Rome in the South Atlantic League (he got a late-season cameo in the High-A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach). Collectively, Heyward hit .316/.381/.473 in 533 plate appearances. He displayed some pop (.157 Isolated Power), while controlling the zone pretty well for such a young player (9.6 percent walk rate, 16.6 percent strikeout rate). Heyward was polished on the base paths as well, stealing 15 bags in 18 tries.

This past year, Heyward zoomed from Myrtle Beach to Double-A Mississippi of the Southern League, while getting a few trips to the plate in the International League for Triple-A Gwinnett. In 422 total PA, Heyward authored a .323/.408/.555 line, with a .232 ISO. Heyward walked as often as he whiffed, with 51 BBs and K’s apiece. While not a massive stolen base threat, he had 10 SB in 11 attempts.

Without question, Heyward is a premium keeper pick. But what can he contribute in 2010? CHONE projects Atlanta’s golden child to hit near a league-average clip, with a .258/.324/.416 triple-slash (98 wRC+). That jives with Heyward’s 2009 Major League Equivalent (MLE) line, which was .255/.321/.423 according to Minor League Splits. ZiPS is more optimistic that he can produce right away, forecasting .275/.341/.429 (110 wRC+). PECOTA likes Heyward even more, with a .280/.348/.477 projected line.

Heyward is a prodigious talent, a 20 year-old with the plate approach of a 30 year-old. Though it would be expecting too much for him to be a force at the plate right away, Heyward’s offensive floor for the upcoming season is probably that of an average MLB hitter. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if he easily surpasses that level, with a batting line somewhere between his ZIPS and PECOTA projections. The only real quibble regarding Heyward is durability: he missed time during the ’09 regular season with oblique, hip and heel injuries, and he was sent home early from the Arizona Fall League with a hamstring strain and a sore back.

At worst, Heyward figures to be average in 2010. At best, he could be a key contributor in all fantasy leagues. This may be the last time that you can get him without giving up a primo draft pick. Just don’t park too close to the ball park.

(As a side note, Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz will split time in left field. While that arrangement should make for a productive real-world tandem, there’s little fantasy value to be had.)

Stock Up

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals

Dan Budreika took a close look at Garcia back in December, and the 23 year-old lefty has done nothing to dispel the notion that he could be a handy starter at the back of St. Louis’ rotation. Garcia made his big league debut in 2008, but Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the majority of the ’09 season.

In the minors, the 2005 22nd-round pick has punched out 8.3 batters per nine innings, with 3 BB/9. Armed with a low-90’s sinking fastball, a big-breaking mid-70’s curve and an occasional cutter and changeup, Garcia is an extreme groundball pitcher. On the farm, he has a career 58.7 GB%. If Garcia can stay healthy and show modest control, he could be a sleeper in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.

Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay Rays

The former Angels prospect is making a strong claim to be in Tampa’s lineup on a near-daily basis. Rodriguez’s minor league lines at the Triple-A level are eye-popping, though they should be tempered by the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League.

Still, the soon-to-be 25 year-old has quality secondary skills for a middle infielder. CHONE projects Rodriguez to hit .241/.327/.447 in 2010, a performance that would be six percent above the MLB average once park and league factors are accounted for (106 wRC+). He’s going to whiff a lot, and his batting average won’t be pretty. But if you focus on Rodriguez’s walks and power, you could nab a serviceable starter in AL-only and deep mixed leagues.

C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers

Wilson hasn’t started a big league game since 2005, but his lobbying to crack Texas’ rotation appears to have been successful. How will it go? Matt Klaassen tackled that topic last week, mentioning Wilson’s addition of a cut fastball to his repertoire and his improved showing against righty hitters in 2009.

There are some things to like here, but we probably shouldn’t get too giddy over one-year platoon splits for a reliever. Generally, a reliever moving into the starting rotation performs about one run worse per nine innings pitched. CHONE projects a 3.70 FIP for Wilson out of the ‘pen, so a rough estimate would have him in the 4.70 range as a starter. It’s hard to predict how he’ll react to the move in terms of retaining stuff, showing stamina and adapting (or not adapting) his pitch selection. But Wilson’s bat-missing ability and groundball tendencies (career 52.9 GB%) make him someone to watch.

Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins

The former Miami Hurricane seems likely to open 2010 as Florida’s starting first baseman, holding off top prospect Logan Morrison for the moment.

Sanchez is no spring chicken at 26, but he’s a career .302/.392/.485 hitter at the minor league level. He split his time between the infield corners in the minors, and he’d be a more interesting fantasy option if he attained multi-position eligibility. Sanchez isn’t a hot-shot prospect- his .270/.356/.430 CHONE projection would be run-of-the-mill for a first baseman- but his excellent eye and average power make him worth considering in NL-only leagues.

Stock Down

Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians

Wood could miss up to two months with a strained latissimus muscle. In the meantime, Chris Perez will take over the closer’s spot, and it’s possible that he might not relinquish the job if he manages not to walk the yard.

The 32 year-old Wood was phenomenal in relief for the Cubs in 2008 (3.07 xFIP). In 2009, however, his walk rate spiked, and his outside swing percentage dipped from 31.3% to 20.2% (25% MLB average). His curve and new cutter were quality, but the run value on his fastball declined from +0.75 per 100 pitches in 2008 to -0.62 this past year.

Elijah Dukes, Nobody

The Nationals surprisingly cut ties with Dukes earlier this month, waving goodbye to a player who has tantalized and aggravated over the years. Granted, Dukes wasn’t particularly good in 2009 (88 wRC+), as his Isolated Power fell to .143 and he battled various injury problems. We know the off-the-field history, and he has struggled to stay healthy: hamstring, knee and calf ailments in 2008, and more hamstring and knee issues in ’09.

But even so, Dukes is 25 years old, owns a career .280/.369/.451 minor league line and has a career 104 wRC+ in the majors. He has a good eye at the dish (13.3 BB%, 22.2 Outside Swing%) and has pop in his linebacker-esque frame (.180 ISO). It’s hard to believe that he was cut loose for purely baseball reasons, given his talent and affordability.

Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins

Displaying 94 MPH heat and a pair of devastating breaking pitches, Nathan mows down hitters in the late frames like few others: over the past three seasons, Nathan ranks fourth in the majors in reliever WAR, with 6.2.

Unfortunately, Nathan is headed for Tommy John surgery, causing owners who already drafted him to bang their heads against their keyboards repeatedly. Check out Eno Sarris’ look at who might take the ninth for Minnesota in Nathan’s absence.

Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals

A much-derided free agent acquisition, Meche was surprisingly effective and healthy in ’07 and ’08: he compiled 4.4 WAR in 2007 and 5 WAR in 2008, while easily topping the 200-inning mark both years (by far career highs in innings pitched). However, his body paid the price last year. Meche’s 2009 campaign was curtailed by back spasms in July and shoulder inflammation that ended his season a month early. Now, Meche is experiencing shoulder stiffness. Proceed with extreme caution.

According to Tom Singer of MLB.com, Cleveland Indians closer Kerry Wood could miss up to two months with a strained latissimus muscle. The 32 year-old Wood, who inked a two-year, $20.5 million deal prior to the 2009 season, posted just 0.4 WAR last year as his walk rate ballooned and batters were reluctant to chase his stuff out of the strike zone. Because of the missed time, Wood has no chance of having his $11 million option for the 2011 season vest (he needs to appear in 55 games for that to happen).

With Wood out, save ops will go to 24 year-old Chris Perez. The former Miami Hurricane came to Cleveland via St. Louis, as part of last June’s Mark DeRosa trade that also netted the Indians Jess Todd.

A 6-4, 230 pound righty, Perez uses a mid-90’s fastball and a hard, mid-80’s slider to wreak havoc out of the ‘pen. He punched out 12 batters per nine innings in the minors, and has 10.03 K/9 in 98.2 career big league frames. Perez’s heater has been worth +0.39 runs per 100 pitches, with the slider checking in at +0.43.

Control, however, has proven elusive. Perez walked six hitters per nine on the farm, and he has issued 4.47 BB/9 in the majors. As you might expect, he doesn’t do a great job of getting ahead in the count (his 57.9 first-pitch strike percentage is about average). Opposing batters haven’t been especially giddy to chase his pitches off the plate, as Perez has a career 21.3 outside-swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Homers are another possible problem. Perez has burned worms just 36.8 percent of the time over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and has surrendered 1.19 dingers per nine innings.

CHONE and ZiPS give similar forecasts for the 2010 season:

CHONE: 9.82 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.13 FIP
ZiPS: 10.07 K/9, 4.62 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

If he’s still available, Perez should be picked up in all leagues. He’s going to whiff a ton of batters, though he could occasionally give owners indigestion due to the walks.

The Florida Marlins figure to have a fantastic one-two punch at the top of the rotation this season, with Josh Johnson (inked to a four-year, $39 million deal during the off-season) followed by Ricky Nolasco, whose 2009 xFIP was 1.8 runs lower than his ERA. Anibal Sanchez, assuming his shoulder doesn’t start shooting flames, looks to be the third man. After that, things get a little..fishy (sorry).

Chris Volstad, Rick VandenHurk, Andrew Miller, Clay Hensley and Hayden Penn are all looking to earn a spot at the back of Florida’s rotation.

Volstad, 23, was the 16th overall pick in the 2005 draft. The 6-8 right-hander didn’t post huge whiff totals in the minors (6.3 K/9), but his low-90’s fastball, high-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup generated grounders at a 57.4 percent clip and he displayed plus control with just 2.4 BB/9.

Over the last two years in the big leagues, Volstad has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9, with a 4.43 xFIP. Volstad remains a groundball-oriented hurler, with a 50.9 GB% in the majors. His hook (+0.86 runs per 100 pitches for the curve) and changeup (+0.73) have been effective, but that fastball has been smacked for a -0.55 runs/100 value.

Volstad’s upside doesn’t appear enormous, but he’s a good bet to bounce back in 2010. His ERA was 5.21 in 2009, compared to a 4.35 xFIP. The reason? Nearly 18 percent of fly balls hit against Volstad left the yard last year, by far the highest rate among starters with 150+ innings pitched. If that number regresses back to the 10-12 percent range, then Volstad’s ERA should dip to mid-fours.

A 24 year-old Dutchman, VandenHurk has been Marlins property since 2002. The 6-5 righty features low-90’s Gouda and a hard slider, which has helped him punch out a batter per inning on the farm, with 3.8 BB/9.

Sadly, VandenHurk is often hurt. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005. More recently, he was shelved in both ’08 and ’09 with elbow ailments. VandenHurk has never come close to a full starter’s workload: his 121.2 IP last season between Florida and the minors was a career high.

In 2009, he had 7.69 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 and a 3.05 FIP in 59.2 innings at the Triple-A level, and 7.52 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 and a 4.78 xFIP in the majors. VandenHurk will miss bats, but health, control issues and extreme fly ball tendencies (27.6 GB% in the majors) make him unreliable. CHONE predicts a 4.66 FIP next year, with 8.54 K/9, 4 BB/9 and 1.38 dingers per nine innings.

R.J. Anderson covered Miller’s journey from highly-touted Tar Heel and Tiger to aggravating underachiever. The lefty is still just 24, and his career xFIP in the majors (4.70) is considerably lower than his ERA (5.50). Even so, scouts expected much more than mediocrity from the 6th pick in the 2006 draft.

First, the good: Miller has 7.22 K/9 in the major leagues, and he keeps the ball on the ground, too (48.1 GB%). The bad is, well, everything else.

Miller has generously handed out 5.09 walks per nine innings, tossing a first pitch strike just 52.1 percent of the time (58 percent MLB average). Batters aren’t chasing his low-90’s fastball, slurvy upper-70’s breaking ball or low-80’s changeup out of the zone (20.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average).

When the 6-7 southpaw isn’t getting behind in the count, he’s hurt: he hit the DL in 2008 with a right knee injury and missed time last year with oblique and right ankle problems (injury info from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

As R.J. suggested, Miller might be best served by going to Triple-A and working out the kinks. He logged just 131 innings in the minors. CHONE still sees Miller through powder blue-colored glasses though, forecasting a 4.30 FIP, 7.62 K/9 and 4.79 BB/9 in 2010.

Hensley, 30, posted a 2.1 WAR season with the Padres back in 2006. The next few years wouldn’t be nearly as kind. Hampered by a shoulder injury (requiring labrum surgery after the ’07 campaign), Hensley was smacked around in the majors and became known as “the dude who gave up Barry Bonds’s 755th home run.”

The former Giants prospect briefly passed through Houston’s minor league system last year and then latched on with Florida. In 114 innings with the Zephyrs, Hensley had a 3.73 FIP, 6.47 K/9 and 3 BB/9.

Hensley’s something of a slop-ball pitcher, featuring a fastball that might crack 90 on a good day, a low-80’s slider, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. He’s not a great source of strikeouts, and he doesn’t have the sort of control that one usually associates with a finesse type. However, he does keep the ball on the ground. CHONE calls for a 4.79 FIP next year, with 6.3 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.

Like his fellow competitors, Penn is no stranger to strains surgical scars. The former Orioles prospect has a promising minor league dossier. But you name it, and Penn has hurt it: surgery to remove his appendix in 2006, elbow surgery in 2007 and shoulder soreness in 2008. The 25 year-old righty is projected to post a 5.04 FIP next year, with 7.53 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9.

Volstad, VandenHurk and Miller remain mildly interesting fantasy options, though none should be on draft boards in mixed leagues.

With Orlando Hudson now turning two for the Twins, the Los Angeles Dodgers have an open competition at the keystone spot heading into 2010. Are any of the candidates worthy of fantasy consideration?

The two main guys fighting to gain manager Joe Torre’s favor are Ronnie Belliard and Blake DeWitt.

Turning 35 in April, Belliard was picked up from the Nationals last August and split time at second with the O-Dog down the stretch. The bulky Belliard won’t be helped by his limited range in the field. He’s currently trying to shed some weight: in order for his $825,000 contract to become guaranteed, he needs to tip the scales at no more than 209 pounds at some point during spring training.

At the dish, Belliard has a 111 wRC+ in nearly 1,200 PA over the past three seasons. He has hit for a good deal of power over the past two seasons: Belliard had a .137 Isolated Power in 2007, but posted a .186 ISO in ’08 and a .174 ISO in ’09.

Over that same time period, Belliard’s strikeout rate has risen from 14.1% in ’07, 19.6% in ’08 and 21.2% in ’09. Perhaps he’s taking a bigger cut, coming up empty more often in exchange for those additional extra base hits. On pitches within the strike zone, Belliard made contact 90% of the time in 2007, 87.1% in ’08 and 85.4% last season (87-88% MLB average).

DeWitt, meanwhile, was taken in the first round (28th overall) of the 2004 draft. The lefty batter has shifted between second and third base during his pro career, compiling a .277/.337/.443 triple-slash in the minors.

In 2008, DeWitt took 421 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, batting .264/.344/.383 with a 96 wRC+. Though he showed little thump (.120 ISO), he did display a good eye. DeWitt drew draw a walk in 10.7 percent of his PA, chasing 22.3 percent of pitches thrown off of the plate (25 percent MLB average).

Last year, he got just 53 PA at the big league level with a 64 wRC+. At Triple-A Albuquerque, DeWitt hit a mild .256/.349/.426, walking 11.8 percent, punching out 12.5 percent and posting a .170 ISO. Albuquerque is a great offensive environment, so DeWitt’s major league equivalent line looks dour: Baseball Prospectus’ MLE’s have Blake’s 2009 work at Albuquerque translating to a .216/.306/.373 showing in the big leagues. That certainly looks harsh: DeWitt’s BABIP in Triple-A was just .273. His MLE wouldn’t look as grisly if he had hit 20 to 30 points higher with the Isotopes.

Belliard and DeWitt could be platooned, with Ronnie rapping lefties and Dewitt handling right-handers. DeWitt hasn’t done much against southpaws in the minors, with a .266/.323/.391 triple-slash (he has performed well against LHP in limited big league time, but the very small sample size doesn’t lend itself to any firm conclusions).

Jamey Carroll, inked to a two-year deal over the winter, will serve as an infield reserve. Skilled glove man Chin-lung Hu could end up being the next Adam Everett if some team gives him a chance. That says all you need to know about his fantasy value, though. The sleeper in the discussion is Ivan DeJesus Jr., a well-regarded prospect looking to rebound from a lost ’09 season.

DeJesus Jr., 22, missed last year after suffering a broken leg during a nasty home plate collision. The 5-11, 180 pound middle infielder offers little in the power department (his career minor league ISO is .074), so he’ll have to prove that he can avoid being bullied by big league pitching. However, he has a .295/.380/.369 line on the farm. He controls the strike zone well, drawing ball four in 11.5 percent of his PA and striking out 17.5 percent. DeJesus Jr. wasn’t a speed merchant prior to his injury, but he did swipe 16 bags in Double-A in 2008, and has a career 75 percent success rate. Don’t be surprised if he enters the picture at some point in 2010.

For 2010, CHONE projects Belliard to bat .257/.318/.407, with a 94 wRC+. DeWitt checks in at .254/.327/.398, which also comes out to a 94 wRC+. Neither guy figures to garner much attention in fantasy leagues.

DeJesus Jr. is the most interesting name of the bunch, though his lack of pop is worrisome. Pitchers aren’t going to tiptoe around the strike zone if the guy batting can do little more than slap a single. Those walk totals might not translate especially well to the highest level, though that remains to be seen. Outside of deep NL-only leagues, Belliard and DeWitt aren’t draft-worthy. DeJesus Jr. is someone to keep in mind during the summer.

Armed with a cadre of young, premium talent, the Texas Rangers have a good shot a contending in 2010 and figure to battle for AL West titles for years to come. CHONE projects Texas to tally 86 wins while taking baseball’s short-stack division. And there’s more help on the way. ESPN’s Keith Law placed the Rangers first in his 2010 MLB organizational rankings, as did Baseball America’s John Manuel on his own list.

While the club’s embarrassment of pitching riches dominates the conversation, Texas has a home-grown center fielder who figures to greatly aid those highly-touted arms. CHONE forecasts a 2.8 WAR season for Julio Borbon, with his superb range translating to well over a win saved defensively. But what about Borbon’s bat?

A University of Tennessee star, Borbon broke his ankle a week prior to the start of his junior season and missed the first two months of the college schedule. However, he recovered and impressed scouts with his fleet feet enough to be a supplemental first-round selection (35th overall) in the 2007 draft.

Texas inked the Scott Boras client for $1.3 million, and Borbon made his full-season debut in the High-A California League in 2008. In 314 plate appearances, Borbon batted .306/.346/.395, walking just 4.8 percent of the time but making plenty of contact (10.3 K%). He also stole 36 bases in 43 attempts (an 83.7 percent success rate) for the aptly-named Bakersfield Blaze.

Borbon earned a promotion to the Double-A Texas League during the summer, where he hit .337/.380/.459 in 280 PA. His walk and whiff rates remained similar (5 BB%, 12.5 K%), and he showed a little more pop (.122 Isolated Power, compared to a .089 ISO in High-A). However, he certainly benefitted from a .370 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and his base thievery took a hit (17 steals in 28 attempts, a 60.7 percent success rate).

This past year, Borbon split his time between the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and the majors. With Oklahoma City, he posted a .307/.367/.386 triple-slash. He didn’t split the gaps often (.079 ISO), but Borbon improved somewhat in terms of working the count. He drew ball four 7.2 percent of the time, while striking out 9.8 percent. With 25 stolen bases in 32 tries (78.1 percent), he also put his speed to better use.

Borbon spent a few days in the big leagues in late June and early July, but he arrived in earnest in August. Overall, he had a .312/.376/.414 line in 179 PA, walking 8.4 percent and punching out 17.8 percent with a .102 ISO. His BABIP was .360. Most importantly for fantasy folks, Borbon nabbed 19 bases in 23 attempts, good for an 82.6 percent success rate.

Given the sample size, it’s best not to infer too much from Borbon’s first foray in the major leagues. But, his plate discipline stats indicate that he had some trouble telling balls from strikes. Borbon chased 27.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25 percent MLB average), while letting ‘er rip on pitches within the zone just 55.5 percent (66 percent MLB average). Given his free-swinging ways in the minors, Borbon’s strike-zone judgment bears watching in 2010.

CHONE predicts that the 24 year-old will author a .297/.349/.400 line in 2010, with a 104 wRC+. Given a full year’s worth of playing time, Borbon should top 30 steals at a high-percentage clip. That makes him someone to target in mixed leagues. But as the old cliche goes, you can’t steal first. Borbon would be best served by showing a little more restraint at the plate.

Earlier today, R.J. Anderson took a gander at Kevin Hart, a fifth starter candidate for the Pirates picked up from the Cubs last summer. Hart’s main competition for that fifth spot is Pittsburgh’s far less famous McCutchen, Daniel McCutchen.

The 27 year-old heard his name called in four separate drafts before he finally signed on the dotted line. The Yankees popped McCutchen out of Grayson County (Texas) Community College in the 47th round back in 2003, but he didn’t come to terms with the club. Tampa Bay took a flyer in the 29th round in 2004. Daniel didn’t make a deal with the (Devil) Rays, though. St. Louis fared no better after selecting him in the 12th round in 2005. Finally, the fifth-year senior (having transferred to Oklahoma) came full-circle and inked with the Yankees as a 13th-rounder in 2006.

McCutchen’s career prospects perked up following a July 2008 trade that sent him from the Yankees to the Bucs. In the Bronx, the 6-2 righty was approximately eleventieth on the starter’s depth chart. In Pittsburgh, he has a far better chance to carve out a significant role.

McCutchen has generally mowed down hitters on his way to the majors. In 261 career innings at the Triple-A level, he has whiffed 7.2 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.6 walks per nine frames. His FIP in the International League is 3.80.

This past year, McCutchen managed to post the second-lowest percentage of balls thrown in the IL, while boasting the fourth-highest swinging strike rate to boot.

Pittsburgh called McCutchen up last August, and he posted a 5.19 FIP in 36.1 innings covering six starts (19/11 K/BB ratio, 6 HR surrendered).

While his work in Triple-A is promising, there’s a schism between McCutchen’s stats and scouting reports. His four-seam fastball sits high in the zone at 90-93 MPH, and he backs it up with a decent low-80’s slider and changeup. In ranking McCutchen as the #21 prospect in the Pirates’ system, Baseball America mentioned that he’s an “extreme fly ball pitcher” who lacks “a true swing-and-miss pitch.”

Those fly ball tendencies are troubling. During his minor league career, McCutchen has gotten grounders just 39.1 percent of the time. In Triple-A this past season, he burned worms at a 33.6 percent clip. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that PNC Park does a number on home run production. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC has decreased dingers by 12 percent compared to a neutral venue over the past three seasons.

For 2010, CHONE projects McCutchen to compile a 4.66 FIP, with 6.26 K/9, 2.52 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9. Whether he cracks the rotation out of Bradenton or not, McCutchen will likely take the hill as a starter at some point.

The “other” McCutchen won’t draw any rave reviews, though he could be useful in NL-only leagues if injuries leave you scurrying to the waiver wire. He’ll miss a modest number of bats and will occasionally get clobbered by the long ball. However, McCutchen’s stinginess with the walks and homer-suppressing home ballpark should make him an average, cheap starter.

Tampa Bay Rays signed DH/1B Hank Blalock to a minor league contract.

Blalock, 29, will earn $925,000, with $350,000 in performance incentives. According to Bill Chastain’s MLB.com article, the pact also includes an opt-out if the long-time Ranger fails to crack Tampa Bay’s big league roster.

Over the past three seasons, Blalock’s bat has been six percent better than the average MLB hitter (106 wRC+). Considering that a litany of health problems have resigned him to first base and DH, that means that Blalock (who posted 5.2 Wins Above Replacement in 2003 and 4.3 WAR in 2004) has been slightly north of replacement-level in recent years.

In 2007, Blalock missed a big chunk of the season following surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. A left hamstring injury and right shoulder inflammation put him on the shelf for much of 2008 (injury info courtesy of the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

This past year, the erstwhile lefty slugger didn’t hit the DL. However, he limped to a .234/.277/.459 line, with an 87 wRC+. Blalock did have some lousy luck on balls put in play: his BABIP was .249, compared to a .311 expected BABIP (xBABIP) and a career .296 mark.

Even So, Blalock did his best Mike Jacobs impression at the plate. He took a cut at 30.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% percent MLB average), drawing ball four in a career-low 5.3 percent of his PA. While he cranked fastballs in the past (+0.75 runs per 100 pitches during his career), Blalock was -0.2 runs below average per 100 fastballs seen in ’09.

Should he make the Rays, Blalock figures to compete with Pat Burrell (he of a bum neck and 85 wRC+ in 2009) for AB’s in the DH slot. With nicknames like “Hammerin’ Hank” and “Pat the Bat,” Tampa’s prospective DH duo sounds like it should punish opposing pitchers (or at the very least, make a great WWE tag team). However, CHONE is none too impressed with either former famous dude:

2010 CHONE projections

Blalock: .328 wOBA, 100 wRC+
Burrell: .329 wOBA, 100 wRC+

The Rays figure to leverage the two, using Blalock against right-handers and Burrell to handle southpaws. Using a platoon projection method outlined in The Book, Matt Klaassen forecasts Blalock to post a .342 wOBA against righties and a .291 wOBA versus same-handed pitching. Using a similar method to project Burrell’s splits, I get a .334 figure against left-handers and a .316 wOBA versus righties. Even with the platoon advantage, Blalock and Burrell won’t be much above replacement-level if they perform as CHONE expects.

This spring, Madison Bumgarner will compete with the likes of Todd Wellemeyer, Kevin Pucetas and Joe Martinez for the right to open the 2010 season in San Francisco’s starting rotation. Truth be told, it wouldn’t be much of a contest if ability were the sole consideration. But because workload and service time concerns also play a part in the decision, Bumgarner could end up back in the minors when the Giants head north.

Regardless of whether he cracks the roster from the get go, the 6-4, 215 pound lefty figures to see significant time in the big leagues this season. Is Bumgarner worth targeting on draft day? And, given the disagreement over his ceiling, is he an upper-echelon keeper league target, or merely a good one?

Plucked out of a North Carolina prep school with the 10th pick in the 2007 draft, Bumgarner was a prototypical projection pick: tall and lanky, able to pump premium gas in the low-90’s, and in the early stages of developing breaking and off-speed stuff.

In its draft coverage, Baseball America noted Bumgarner’s 92-94 MPH fastball (occasionally popping the mitt at 97 MPH). But BA also noted that he “tried multiple grips and shapes with his breaking ball, and at times has flashed a fringe-average pitch that has tilt and late snap at 81 mph,” and that his changeup was “a below-average pitch that should improve when and if he throws it more often.”

In 2008, Bumgarner made his pro debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League. He went all Randy Johnson on those poor Sally League hitters. Logging 141.2 innings, Bumgarner whiffed 10.42 batters per nine frames, while looking anything but raw in issuing just 1.33 BB/9. A very low homer rate (0.19 HR/9) contributed to the figure, but his FIP (1.71) looked like a typo.

Bumgarner shot to the top of prospect lists. Baseball America claimed that “there may not be a lefthander with a better fastball than Bumgarner’s.” He sat 93-94 MPH, again touching the upper nineties. BA said that his secondary pitches remained “a work in progress,” but they rated him as the ninth-best talent in the minors.

Bumgarner earned gushing reports from all of the prospect gurus:

Baseball America

“Bumgarner has all the gifts to be a No. 1 starter.”

Kevin Goldstein: #3 overall

“A tall, power left-hander with mid-90’s heat, a plus breaking ball, and impeccable command, Bumgarner was the best pitcher in the minors last year…”

Keith Law: #6 overall

The rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts — including me — assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot.

John Sickels: #14 overall (A Grade)

“Health is a risk as with any young pitcher, but incredible performance at a young age and improved secondary stuff stands out.”

This past year, Bumgarner began the year in the High-A California League, where he again made quick work of the opposition (24.1 IP, 23/4 K/BB, 2.05 FIP). Bumped up to the Double-A Eastern League, he posted a minuscule ERA (1.93). For the first time, though, his peripherals weren’t otherworldly.

In 107 innings, Bumgarner struck out a tame 5.8 hitters per nine innings, with 2.52 BB/9 and a 3.56 FIP. His searing fastball lost its second gear, sitting in the high-80’s during the second half of the season (some attribute the drop to too much throwing on the side). Called up to the majors in September to make one start and three relief appearances, Bumgarner tossed his heater at an average of 89.2 MPH.

Over the off-season, Bumgarner seemed to lose some of his luster with prospect evaluators:

Baseball America: #14 overall

“At his best, Bumgarner has shown a mid-90s fastball, a slider with good tilt and an average changeup…Bumgarner pitched at 88-90 mph for most of the second half of last season…His slider still isn’t a finished product and his changeup isn’t entirely trustworthy.”

Kevin Goldstein: #21 overall

“Scouts noted a consistent velocity drop that by the end of the year amounted to a full 5 mph.”

Keith Law: #28 overall

“Bumgarner took a big tumble this year when his velocity gradually declined the deeper he went into the season.”

John Sickels: A- Grade (no top 100 ranking yet)

“Almost went with B+, but strikeout rates aren’t everything. More concerned about dropping velocity.”

As Harry Pavlidis showed recently, concerns over Bumgarner’s lack of zip persist. It doesn’t seem unusual for a pitcher to show less-than-optimum velocity at the beginning of spring training. But given his sapped fastball speed last year, Bumgarner’s radar readings bear watching.

I wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to grab Bumgarner for 2010. CHONE is circumspect, projecting 5.93 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.99 FIP. Given his good-not-great slider and changeup, Bumgarner would need to rediscover his ’08 heat in order to make waves in the majors.

For all of “the sky is falling” rhetoric surrounding Bumgarner, it is important to remember that A.) he’s just 20 and B.) he still ranked highly on all prospect lists. True, it is troubling that a pitcher known primarily for his lively fastball is having a hard time hitting 90. However, this could be a good time to nab the southpaw in a keeper league from an owner fretting over the curious case of Bumgarner’s velocity.

Keep an eye on the radar gun when Bumgarner pitches, but don’t abandon ship in keeper leagues while getting 70 cents on the dollar in return.

A few days ago, I highlighted some former top position prospects who once graced magazine covers and had fantasy players’ hearts aflutter, but have since fallen out of favor. Today, let’s do the same with starting pitchers. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Starting Rotation.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

CHONE: 151 IP, 7.33 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.07 HR/9, 4.27 FIP

When a much-discussed hurler gets the big league call and chucks a no-hitter in his second start, expectations can become so enormous that anything short of that pitcher becoming a Roger Clemens/Nolan Ryan love child seems like a let-down.

Buchholz, who turned 25 last August, has logged 190.2 innings in the majors from 2007-2009, with a 4.91 ERA. That screams mediocrity. But his peripherals are more promising. The 6-3 right-hander has struck out 7.65 batters per nine innings, while posting a 49.9 percent groundball rate. His control hasn’t been precise (4.11 BB/9), but Buchholz has a more palatable 4.13 expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP). Buchholz has performed like an above-average starter, but a .317 BABIP and a near 14 percent home run per fly ball rate have obscured his quality work.

Known for his diverse arsenal of pitches, Buchholz has succeeded in the majors with his slider (+2.30 runs per 100 pitches), curveball (+0.52) and changeup (+0.42). His fastball, on the other hand, has been more than a run below average (-1.04).

However, his heater velocity did perk up in 2009. In 2008, Buchholz threw his fastball for a strike 61.8 percent of the time. In ‘09, his fastball was thrown for a strike 65.9 percent. His ceiling is still wicked high.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds

CHONE: 158 IP, 7.35 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 4.66 FIP

The seventh pick in the 2004 draft won’t turn 24 until May, but his odyssey in pro ball has taken him from uber-prospect to perceived bust to promising, if unpolished starter. Bailey was beaten badly during his first two stints in the big leagues (5.59 xFIP in 2007 and a 5.16 xFIP in 2008). But in 2009, he turned in a quality season at the Triple-A level (89.2 IP, 8.23 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 3.86 FIP) and pitched at a league-average level (4.58 xFIP) in the majors.

Bailey has a four-pitch mix, including a mid-80’s slider/cutter, high-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup, but he chooses to fire his fastball well over 70 percent of the time. Like Buchholz, Bailey got some extra oomph on his fastball this past year, sitting 94-95 MPH instead of 91-92 MPH like in ’07 and ’08. He’s basically an average starter right now, with the upside for more than that if he makes gains with his control and secondary stuff.

Sean Gallagher, San Diego Padres

CHONE: 102 IP, 8.12 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.91 FIP

A former Cub and Athletic picked up by the Padres last July, Gallagher scarcely pitched in 2009 after suffering a left knee injury. In 2008, though, the right-hander used his low-90’s gas, hard slider and slow curve to punch out 8.04 batters per nine innings in 115.1 IP with Chicago and Oakland. He does lose the strike zone often (career 4.93 BB/9), and lets hitters loft the ball frequently (35.8 GB%).

Gallagher will need to stop being so generous with the walks, but Petco Park should help mitigate those extreme fly ball proclivities, should they persist (his near-50 percent groundball rate in the minors suggests that his GB/FB split might not be that pronounced moving forward).

The 24 year-old is not currently penciled in to San Diego’s rotation. However, with Chris Young’s recent ailments, concerns over Mat Latos‘ workload and the checkered health history of Tim Stauffer, the out-of-options Gallagher figures to get a shot at some point.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Bill James (CHONE’s projection for Morrow comes in relief): 135 IP, 8.73 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, 4.34 FIP

Swapped from the Mariners to the Jays over the winter, Morrow has seen his development derailed by injuries, being shoved into the major league bullpen and indecision over his role: starter or closer, that is the question.

Toronto has spared us from any more rumination: Morrow, 25, will be a starter with his new organization. His ability to miss bats is unquestioned, but the former Cal star has to hone his control and prove durable (forearm and shoulder injuries have plagued him) if he hopes to become more than a hard-throwing curiosity.

Don’t be surprised if there are bumps along the way. Because Seattle’s former regime allowed Morrow to throw reallyrealyreally hard in the general direction of home plate out of the ‘pen, instead of building stamina and improving his breaking stuff as a minor league starter, the 6-3 righty remains green as grass.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

CHONE: 94 IP, 8.33 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 4.20 FIP

A USC Trojan who terrorized minor league batters (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), Kennedy scuffled in limited time with the Yankees (5.84 xFIP in 59.2 IP) and was sent to Arizona as part of a three-team deal during the offseason. Kennedy’s ’09 season was quashed by surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit.

A 6-0, 195 pound righty who relies far more on command than sizzling stuff, Kennedy sits 89-91 with his fastball and backs it up with a slider, curve and changeup. His Major League Equivalencies in 2007 (4.34 FIP) and 2008 (3.34 FIP) suggest that he could be a nifty back-end starter.

But, Kennedy faces a daunting task with the D-Backs. He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 39.7 GB% in the minors) headed to a park that, according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, has increased run production by 15 percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three years.