Over his five full campaigns as a major league starter, Dan Haren has averaged 5.1 Wins Above Replacement per season. During the past three calendar years, Haren’s 14 WAR rank behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia. The 29 year-old D-Backs ace combines power and precision, relying heavily upon high-80’s cutters, high-70’s curves and mid 80’s splitters that make Mark Grace swoon. And, with affordable salaries for the next four seasons ($8.25M this year, $12.75M each in 2011-2012, $15.5M club option for 2013), Haren’s a bargain, too.

At first blush, something appears off in Haren’s 2010 performance. In 59.2 innings pitched, the former Cardinal and Athletic has a mediocre 4.83 ERA. That’s his highest mark since he cut his teeth as a rookie with St. Louis back in 2003. Is Haren slumping? In a word, no.

In his first nine starts of the year, the righty has punched out a career-best 9.35 batters per nine innings. He’s not quite showing the Greg Maddux-esque walk rate from 2009 (1.49 BB/9), but issuing 2.26 free passes per nine frames is superb nonetheless.

Going to his cutter (31 percent) and splitter (19 percent) more often this season, Haren has induced swings on pitches outside of the strike zone 36 percent of the time. That’s the best mark of his big league tenure and tops all MLB starters logging at least 30 innings pitched.

Haren is also missing more lumber than ever: opponents have made contact with 84.6% of his in-zone pitches (88.2% MLB average) and 73.9% of his offerings overall (80.9% MLB average). Those are the lowest Z-Contact and Contact rates of Haren’s career. His in-zone contact rate is one of the 15 lowest among starters, and the overall contact rate sits in the top five.

So, why the high ERA? Haren is getting hosed by a .357 batting average on balls in play (.302 career). He has been unlucky in terms of stranding base runners and surrendering home runs on fly balls as well. Haren’s left on base rate in 2010 is 66.9, compared to a 73.1% career average, and his home run/fly ball rate is 13.1% (10.8% career average).

Haren has been his usual, filthy self–his 3.21 expected FIP (xFIP) ranks 7th among starters, trailing just Lincecum, Halladay, James Shields, Lee, Josh Johnson and Ricky Romero. Some misfortune on balls put in play, a lower-than-usual strand rate and a couple extra round-trippers have obscured another fantastic season. Don’t worry about Haren–he’s just fine. Now, about that bullpen..

Don’t expect to see Asdrubal Cabrera take the field again anytime soon, as the switch-hitting shortstop suffered a broken left forearm last evening against the Rays. Cabrera collided with 3B Jhonny Peralta on a Hank Blalock ground ball hit up the middle (the infield was shifted for the lefty pull hitter). There’s no firm estimate on how much time he’ll miss, but Cabrera is likely headed for surgery.

The former M’s prospect was off to a mild start in 2010, batting .287/.322/.368 (.303 wOBA) in 149 plate appearances. Cabrera’s plate discipline was off-kilter, as he swung at 28.5 percent of pitches outside of the zone and took a hack at just 59.6 percent of in-zone pitches. For comparison, Cabrera’s career O-Swing is 24.7, and his Z-Swing is 65.7. Chasing more offerings off the dish and keeping the bat on the shoulder more often when the pitcher puts one in the strike zone is a recipe for fewer walks, and Cabrera’s rate of free passes taken was down to 4.7. Also, after nabbing 17 bases in 21 tries in 2009, Cabrera had just one SB and 2 CS in 2010.

In his place, the Indians will turn to a combination of Luis Valbuena and the recently recalled Jason Donald.

Valbuena, 24, has a career .235/.301/.387 triple-slash in 544 major league PA. The lefty hitter, himself a former Mariner, has shown decent secondary skills for a middle infielder (8.3 BB%, .152 ISO).

However, Valbuena has punched out 24.3 percent of the time and he has a track record of scuffling against southpaw pitching. During his minor league career, Valbuena had a .241/.319/.311 line vs. LHP. His managers have gone to great lengths to shield him from lefties in the majors: just 12 percent of his big league PA have come against same-side pitching. Questionable D at the keystone won’t help his big for more playing time, either (career -9.3 UZR/150 at 2B, and ugly numbers at short in a small sample of playing time). ZiPS projects a .247/.317/.377 line for Valbuena for the rest of the 2010 season, with a .308 wOBA.

Donald, meanwhile, was a part of the underwhelming collection of talent Cleveland acquired from Philadelphia in exchange for Cliff Lee in July of 2009. The Arizona product has a career .284/.371/.434 line as a minor leaguer, with a 10.3 percent walk rate, a 23 percent K rate and a .150 Isolated Power. Donald was off to a .277/.396/.423 start at Triple-A Columbus in 2010. Neither ZiPS (.290 wOBA) nor CHONE (.299 wOBA) had especially sunny major league forecasts for him.

The 25-year-old ranked as Baseball America’s #69 prospect prior to 2009, but he missed time with left knee and back injuries last year and slipped to 15th in the Indians’ system before 2010. Almost exclusively a shortstop before this season, Donald had mostly been playing second base with Columbus. BA called him a “fringy defensive shortstop whose range and overall defensive skill set might be better suited for second base.”

While the Tribe will turn to Valbuena and Donald, fantasy owners seeking to fill the void created by Cabrera’s injury should look elsewhere. Shortstops with low Yahoo ownership rates include: Everth Cabrera (11%), Alcides Escobar (13%) and Ian Desmond (14%, and also has 2B eligibility). Maicer Izturis (19%) qualifies at short, second and third, and he could nab a good chunk of Brandon Wood’s playing time at the hot corner once he returns from a shoulder injury.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto, 24, posted xFIP’s of 4.37 in 2008 and 4.57 in 2009. While by no means bad, those performances were mildly disappointing, given the way the right-hander shredded minor league hitters on his way to Cincy.

Perhaps Cueto is ready to take a step forward in his development as a major league starter. After owning the Pirates and Brewers in his last two starts, Johnny has 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 49 innings. He’s getting plenty of whiffs with his four-seam fastball (12 percent, double his MLB-average whiff rate on the pitch from 2009), and his slider is getting swings and misses 12.8 percent after eliciting whiffs 9.7 percent in ’09 (13.6 MLB average).

He’s getting behind in the count often, with a 52.2 first pitch strike percentage that’s well south of the 58-59% big league average, but Cueto’s contact and swinging strike rates have improved after he posted mediocre numbers in ’09. ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP for the rest of the season, with 7.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Brett Gardner, Yankees

Taken in the third round of the 2005 draft out of the College of Charleston, Gardner used his wheels to swipe bases at a high percentage clip (83.4 percent) and cover the gaps in the minors, while working the count for a 13.6 percent walk rate. Questions were raised about his bat, though, given Gardner’s lack of pop (.094 ISO) and 20 percent K rate.

While the 5-10, 185 pound lefty batter is unlikely to keep the .390 wOBA that he currently holds, Gardner has eased concerns about his offense. He’s drawing walks at a 10.3 percent rate this year, swinging at 20.2 percent of pitches outside of the zone (27.4% MLB average), and he’s making scores of contact (93.5 percent, compared to the 80-81% MLB average).

Gardner isn’t going to drive the ball with any frequency, but he controls the zone well and has proven to be one of the best stolen base thieves in the game: he’s 17-for-18 in 2010, and now has an 88.9 percent success rate in the big leagues. According to Baseball Prospectus’ base running numbers, Gardner has added nearly half a win with his legs (best in the majors), including about three runs on steal attempts. Add in his stellar outfield D, and Gardner might be the rarest of species: the unheralded Yankee.

Derek Holland, Rangers

After laying waste to Triple-A batters (38.2 IP, 37/7 K/BB, 8 runs allowed), Holland was recalled when Matt Harrison (biceps) was placed on the DL. While the 23-year-old lefty’s 2009 work with Texas looks grim at first glance (6.12 ERA in 138.1 IP), his underlying performance was much more promising: a 4.38 xFIP, with about seven whiffs per nine innings and 3.1 BB/9.

Holland has made two big league starts so far, and he has posted a 10/3 K/BB while allowing three runs. He has the stuff (low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve, low-80’s change), track record (9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minors) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America rated him #31 on its list of farm talents prior to 2009) to contribute in all fantasy formats.

John Lackey, Red Sox

Signed to a five-year, $82.5 million contract over the winter, Lackey has been lackluster this season. The long-time Angel dealt with right triceps and forearm injuries over the past couple of years and his contact rates had been rising, but his combination of solid K rates and quality control led to sub-four xFIPs from 2007-2009.

In Boston, Lackey has a middling 4.85 xFIP in 50 innings pitched. He’s striking out a career-worst 5.58 batters per nine frames, while walking a career-high 3.78 per nine. The 31-year-old’s contact rate has continued to increase: opponents have connected 85.8 percent in 2010, compared to an 80.4% career average, and Lackey is getting swinging strikes a paltry 5.6 percent (8.9% career average, right around the MLB average). He’s not locating well, either, with 45.7 percent of his pitches catching the plate (50.4% career average, 48-51% MLB average). Lackey’s curve has been worth +0.92 runs per 100 pitches during his career, but it has been thumped for a -1.96 runs/100 mark in 2010.

Owners are best off taking a wait-and-see approach with Lackey. His trade value is diminished right now, so it makes sense to hold on to him and hope that his stuff rebounds.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

When Milledge managed just a .308 wOBA and a .094 ISO in 2009, some were willing to forgive the shoddy offensive showing due to a fractured right ring finger that might have affected his bat control. However, the former Met and National is hitting like someone broke both his thumbs.

In 136 PA, Milledge has an anemic .286 wOBA, and he’s hitting for even less power than last season (.066 ISO). The 25-year-old continues to swing at plenty of junk pitches (30.3 outside swing percentage), and he’s chopping the ball into the dirt and popping up at an alarming rate. Milledge has a 57.4 GB% this year, and his infield/fly ball rate is 16 percent (twice the major league average). Couple the punch less hitting with…adventurous routes in left field, and it might not be long before the Pirates give Jose Tabata a shot.

Mitch Talbot, Indians

Freed from the Tampa pitching factory that had buried him on the organizational depth chart, Talbot was shipped to Cleveland for Kelly Shoppach last December. Talbot’s got a 3.23 ERA in 47.1 IP for the Indians, but his peripherals suggest that bumpier days are ahead.

The 26-year-old right-hander showed strong ground ball tendencies on the farm (53.9 GB%), and he has continued to burn worms in the majors (49 GB%). Unfortunately, Talbot’s control has been ordinary (3.99 BB/9, with a 52.9 first pitch strike percentage) and he’s not fooling anyone. He has 3.61 K/9, his contact rate is near 90 percent and his swinging strike rate (4.1 percent) is less than half of the major league average. Talbot’s xFIP is 5.09. Unless he misses more bats or displays sharper control, expect that ERA to spike.

When the New York Mets opened the 2010 season with top prospect Jenrry Mejia, a 20-year-old righty with scarce experience above A-Ball, in the big league bullpen instead of in a minor league rotation, the move was viewed as a short-sighted play by a GM and manager with tenuous job security.

The Mets have apparently changed course, however. According to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, Mejia will return to the minors to get stretched out as a starter. With the oft-pummeled Oliver Perez banished to the ‘pen and Jon Niese at least temporarily sidelined by a hamstring injury (R.A. Dickey to the rescue!), New York is short on starting options and hopes that Baseball America’s #56 preseason prospect can return to take some turns later this summer.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 for just $16,500, Mejia split the 2009 campaign between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League. The 6-0, 160 pound (listed) Mejia struck out 7.9 batters, walked 2.9 per nine and had a 61.7 percent ground ball rate in 50.1 FSL frames. In Double-A, he increased his whiff rate (9.5 K/9) and got plenty of grounders (56.3 GB%) in 44.1 innings, though Mejia issued more walks (4.7 BB/9).

Entering 2010, Baseball America described Mejia as possessing 90-96 MPH gas (touching 98 MPH) with “so much cutting and sinking action that it befuddles hitters.” BA also liked his low-to-mid-80’s changeup, while also noting that the off-speed pitch was inconsistent and that his breaking stuff needed plenty of work.

As a reliever in the majors with a praiseworthy fastball and rudimentary secondary stuff, Mejia did what you would expect: he reared back and fired. He used his heater (averaging 94.4 MPH on the radar gun) about 81 percent of the time, supplementing it with a high-70’s curveball (10 percent) and a mid-80’s change (nine percent).

In 17.1 low-leverage innings (0.84 Leverage Index), Mejia had 7.27 K/9, 4.15 BB/9 a 58.5 ground ball rate and a 4.23 expected FIP (xFIP). He had some issues getting ahead in the count, as a sub-50 first pitch strike percentage attests, but Mejia simply holding his own is a testament to his talent.

This is the right move for the Mets–Mejia’s long-term value to the franchise is considerably higher as a potential front-line starter than it is as a reliever. He needs innings to build stamina, hone his control and develop his change and slider.

Similarly, Mejia’s returning to a starting role should be viewed as a positive for fantasy owners. His high K/high ground ball skill set makes him highly coveted in keeper leagues. It’s easier to scrounge for saves that it is to find a premium starting prospect.

On April 23rd, Brennan Boesch stepped into a major league batter’s box for the first time and proceeded to rip the first Rich Harden offering he saw for a double. Since then, the 25-year-old Tigers rookie hasn’t stopped swinging or making loud contact. In just 74 plate appearances, Boesch’s bashing has been worth +7.4 park-adjusted Batting Runs. Where did this guy come from, and what can we expect from him going forward?

Detroit snagged Boesch out of California in the third round of the 2006 draft. A 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter, Boesch fit the physical description of a power hitter but confused scouts with uneven performances for the Golden Bears. Here’s Baseball America’s scouting report leading up to the draft:

He has what scouts look for in a prospect, but while he had set a new career high with 10 home runs, his slugging percentage was actually lower than it was in 2005, and scouts had been disappointed by his overall performance. He’s been erratic, at times showing above-average bat speed and the ability to catch up to good fastballs, and at others showing a long swing that short-circuits his power. His hands are dead at the start of his swing, often keeping him from loading up and generating power.

The Tigers sent Boesch to the short-season New York-Penn that summer, where he hit .291/.344/.435 in 317 plate appearances. He walked in 6.6 percent of his PA and punched out 14.4 percent, posting a .144 Isolated Power.

Boesch ranked 16th on BA’s list of top Tigers prospects prior to the 2007 season, but he dipped to 24th before 2008 and fell off the list entirely leading up to the 2009 campaign. In the Low-A Midwest League in ’07, he batted a weak .267/.297/.378 in 542 PA, drawing ball four 4.2 percent and striking out 15.8 percent. Boesch’s ISO fell to a middle infielder-like .111, with BA saying that he “lacked the plus power expected from a corner outfielder.”

His 2008 season was little better: a .249/.310/.379 triple-slash in 461 PA in the High-A Florida State League, with a 7.8 percent walk rate, a 21.6 percent K rate and a .129 ISO. The MWL and the FSL are difficult offensive environments, but college-trained outfielders hacking and hitting singles aren’t going to elicit much excitement from talent evaluators.

In 2009, Boesch showed an offensive pulse for the first time in pro ball. Bumped up to the Double-A Eastern League, he hit .275/.318/.510 in 571 PA. Boesch remained aggressive (5.8 BB%) and his strikeout rate climbed to 24.1 percent, but his ISO shot up to .235. Baseball America rated Boesch as the 26th-best prospect in Detroit’s system this past offseason.

After a hot start in the Triple-A International League (.379/.455/.621 in 66 PA), Boesch got the big league call and has logged time in the corner outfield and DH spots. He owns a .380/.392/.676 line, with three home runs and a .296 ISO. Boesch’s plate approach, however, leaves much to be desired.

So far, his strike zone has been the size of Lake Michigan. Boesch has chased 50.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone, highest among hitters with at least 70 plate appearances. He’s out-hacking the master of junk ball swinging, Vladimir Guerrero (49.6 O-Swing%). On pitches within the zone, Boesch has taken a cut 84.6 percent. Only Vlad (86.4 Z-Swing%) has swung at in-zone pitches more often. Boesch’s overall 66.4 percent swing rate bests The Impaler’s 65.2 percent mark.

Guerrero might be able to get away with swinging at everything. Boesch isn’t Vlad, though. That 2.7 percent walk rate is going to be an issue once his .421 batting average on balls in play comes back down to Earth.

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected Boesch for a .230/.261/.364 line. That seems pessimistic, but it is important to keep in mind that we’re talking about a mid-twenties prospect with a career .273/.319/.434 minor league line. He has an ultra-aggressive philosophy, and holds a .247/.294/.364 minor league triple-slash against lefty pitching. Boesch isn’t a hot-shot youngster so much as he’s a righty masher with a low OBP and problems with same-handed hurlers.

Not that long ago, Ricky Romero was known to Blue Jays fans as the answer to the following trivia question: “who did Toronto take with the sixth pick in the 2005 draft instead of Troy Tulowitzki?”

While Tulo established himself as a top prospect at a premium position, Romero posted so-so-numbers on the farm. The Cal State Fullerton lefty struck out seven batters per nine innings, while walking 3.8 per nine and posting a 48.6 percent ground ball rate. Prior to 2009: Baseball America gave Romero the following assessment:

Late bloomer or bust? That’s the question surrounding Romero, whom the Blue Jays selected sixth overall in 2005 and signed for a club-record $2.4 million. He has spent the bulk of the past three seasons in Double-A and been passed by several lefties in the system…Romero still needs to show more consistency to reach his ceiling as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

While there are clearly worse scenarios than ending up with a first-rounder who’s a mid-to-back-end starter, the Jays likely had higher aspirations. Since that scouting report was published, however, Romero has taken his game to a different level.

In 2009, Romero turned in a quality rookie season. Tossing 178 innings, he posted rates of 7.13 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 and had a 54 percent ground ball rate. His expected FIP (xFIP) was 4.09. This year? He’s pitching like a bona fide ace. In 56.1 frames, the 25-year-old has 9.43 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, a 55.9 GB% and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks 7th among starters with at least 30 IP.

During his rookie year, 48.4 percent of Romero’s pitches were within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48-49 percent) and he garnered swings on pitches off the plate 24 percent (25-27% MLB average). In 2010, Romero has tried to bait hitters into expanding their zones, and it’s working. Placing just 44 percent of his offerings over the plate, he has induced outside swings 31.2 percent.

Romero’s contact and swinging strike rates were above average last year, but he’s in elite territory so far in 2010. Opponents put the bat on the ball 77.9 percent in ’09, compared to the 80-81% MLB average. That contact rate is down to 72.7 percent this season, and only Tim Lincecum, Brandon Morrow and Clayton Kershaw have been more adept at avoiding lumber. Romero’s swinging strike rate, 9.6 percent during his first foray in the majors, is 11.9 percent in 2010 (8-9% MLB average).

One of the keys to his success is a fantastic changeup. On May 15, Romero whiffed 12 Rangers batters on his way to a complete game shutout. From this AP article, here’s Texas 3B Michael Young describing Romero’s off-speed pitch:

It has kind of a split action to it. It’s not a straight change, it kind of has a little dive down in the zone. It’s a good pitch, it’s a plus pitch for him and you could tell he really had a lot of confidence in it.

Young’s observations look spot-on. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool at texasleaguers.com, Romero has gone to his 84-85 MPH change nearly one-third of the time. The bottom falls out of that pitch, and it moves more like a splitter. The average changeup has 6.1 inches of vertical movement, meaning it drops 6.1 inches less than a pitch thrown without spin. By contrast, Romero’s change has -0.3 inches of vertical movement–it falls 0.3 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. Batters are swinging at that changeup 53.6 percent (48.3 MLB average), and are whiffing 20.7 percent (12.1 MLB average). That’s, as Young said, a plus pitch.

In 234.1 major league innings, Romero has a 3.86 xFIP. He misses bats, has decent control and induces ground balls by the bushel. Yet, he is still available in nearly one-fifth of Yahoo leagues (81 percent ownership rate). Romero likely won’t keep up this pace all season, but he has the skill set to remain a well above-average starter. Snatch this guy up if he’s still on the waiver wire.

Coors Field aside, Rockies first baseman Todd Helton has been an offensive force in his own right. Colorado’s first-round pick in the 1995 draft has a career 142 wRC+, meaning his park and league-adjusted weighted on-base average is 42 percent better than the league average. Possessing zen-like plate discipline and plus power, Helton has been a fixture in the Rockies’ lineup for 14 years.

A back injury sapped Helton’s bat and ended his season early in 2008 (105 wRC+, with a .124 ISO), but he rebounded in 2009 to produce a quality 135 wRC+. While no longer a massive power threat, Helton’s ISO rebounded to .164. Heading into 2010, CHONE and ZiPS expected some decline for the 36-year-old. The FANS were more optimistic:

CHONE: 125 wRC+, .146 ISO
ZiPS: 132 wRC+, .151 ISO
FANS: 140 wRC+, .167 ISO

Helton is still drawing plenty of free passes this season, walking in 15.9 percent of his plate appearances and swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27.4% MLB average in 2010). But his power output has dried up like a banquet beer in the blazing sun.

Among big league hitters with at least 100 PA, Helton’s .036 ISO ranks ahead of only Cesar Izturis (.021) and Juan Pierre (.007). Entering play Monday, Helton has yet to hit a single home run. Even with his on-base chops, Helton’s bat has been 15 percent worse than the MLB average in 2010 (85 wRC+).

Nothing much has changed with his batted ball distribution. Helton’s hitting line drives 27.5 percent of the time (25.3% average since 2002), ground balls 35.2 percent (35.7% since ’02) and fly balls 37.4 percent (39.1% since ’02). However, the lefty batter is pulling the ball less and hitting more to the opposite field, an approach that generally leads to less pop. Here are Helton’s spray numbers this year compared to 2009 (from Baseball-Reference):

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a batter’s park-adjusted performance in a given split to that of the league average. An sOPS+ of 100 is average, while an sOPS+ above 100 means the hitter is better than the league average.

In ’09, Helton was excellent when he pulled the ball, besting the league average by 43 percent. He also did pretty well when hitting to the middle and opposite fields. This year, his pull percentage is down, and he has been nine percent worse than the league average when he hits the ball to right field. Note the big increase in pitches hit to the opposite field, 17.2% in ’09 to 27.8% in 2010, and his abysmal performance when going oppo (40 sOPS+).

According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Helton has typically slammed fastballs (+1.50 runs per 100 pitches seen since 2002). But in 2010, he’s at -0.44 runs per 100 when he gets challenged with a heater.

It’s dangerous to draw bold conclusions from a month and a half of games. But Helton’s mild performance when pulling the ball, increased percentage of pitches hit to the opposite field and problems against fastballs paint the picture of a player whose bat has slowed. Helton likely won’t continue to “compete” with Izturis and Pierre for the title of least powerful hitter in the majors –his rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .284/.394/.417 line with a .132 ISO–but his days of cracking lots of extra-base hits are over.

New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes has long been a fantasy stalwart due to his sizzling speed and surprising pop. After a lost 2009 season in which the switch-hitter injured his right hamstring and played his last ball game in late May, fantasy players were hoping to get a discount on an electric talent in 2010. To this point, though, Reyes is hitting more like Rey Ordonez.

Since making his season debut on April 10 (he opened the year on the DL with a thyroid imbalance), Reyes has hit a feeble .215/.267/.289 in 146 plate appearances. His wOBA is .260, and he has yet to go deep in 2010. Jose has eight steals, but that doesn’t matter much when you’re showing the offensive skills of Willie Mays Hayes. What’s going on here?

The first thing that stands out is Reyes’ lack of patience at the plate. This season, the 26-year-old has hacked at 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, about 10 percent higher than his career mark and well above the 27.2 percent MLB average in 2010. That free-swinging approach has produced a 5.5 percent walk rate, Reyes’ lowest figure since 2005.

Perhaps recognizing Jose’s expanded zone, opposing pitchers aren’t tossing him many strikes: just 39.5 percent of Reyes’ pitches seen have been within the strike zone. That’s far lower than his career 52.7 percent average and the 47.9 percent MLB average.

Swinging at so many bad pitches, Reyes has made little forceful contact. His Isolated Power is .074, slightly more than half of his career .145 mark. Reyes is getting jammed a lot, as his infield/fly ball rate is 19.1 percent. His career rate is 11.7 percent, and the MLB average is around 7-8 percent. Reyes is making less contact, too, putting the bat on the ball 82.7 percent (85.9 percent career average, 80-81% MLB average). His K rate is a career-high 15.6 percent.

During his big league career, Reyes has hit line drives at a 20.2 percent rate. In 2010, just 13.9 percent of his batted balls have been classified as liners. As mentioned in the discussion of Chone Figgins‘ rough start to 2010, the classification of line drives can be tricky. But liners have a .731 batting average and a .990 slugging percentage in the NL this season. Relative to his career batted ball averages, Reyes has swapped 6-7% of his line drives for infield fly balls, which are near-automatic outs. That’s a trade that no hitter wants to make.

Though there are plenty of negative trends here, Reyes has been somewhat unlucky on balls put in play. His BABIP is .252, while his expected BABIP (based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls) is .290. In particular, the speedy Reyes has a .196 batting average on ground balls, compared to a .269 career average. He also won’t keep hitting .116 and slugging .140 on fly balls (his career marks are .195 and .477, respectively).

Jose Reyes is a mess at the plate. But fantasy owners can do little else but wait — he’s far too talented to trade away for sixty or seventy cents on the dollar. For non-owners, this wouldn’t be a bad time to make an offer. Perhaps you can pick Reyes up at a discount from someone whose patience has run thin. The Mets’ shortstop still has the potential to be an all-around force, but he’ll have to stop swinging with reckless abandon to regain that elite status.

Here are two hitters with single-digit ownership rates who deserve more attention…

Gaby Sanchez, Marlins (owned in 5% of Yahoo Leagues)

A 2005 fourth-round pick out of the University of Miami, Sanchez is keeping first base warm for top prospect Logan Morrison. However, Morrison’s ascent has been temporarily slowed by a right shoulder injury, and Sanchez is performing well.

Owning a career .302/.392/.485 line in the minors, the 26-year-old righty batter is hitting .283/.362/.469 in 127 plate appearances, with a .365 wOBA. Known for a discerning eye that allowed him to walk in 12 percent of his PA on the farm, Sanchez has actually swung at a good deal of pitches out of the zone this season (32.8%, compared to the 27.3% MLB average in 2010). He still has a solid 10.2 BB%, though, and he’s showing more power than expected with a .186 ISO.

There’s not a ton of upside here: Sanchez is a mid-twenties prospect with mid-range pop at a position where players are supposed to mash. But he’s not a bad option in NL-only leagues.

Luke Scott, Orioles (7%)

Even after popping home runs against the Mariners on May 12 and May 13, Scott’s .232/.290/.475 triple-slash looks weak. However, the 31-year-old has gotten hosed on balls put in play. His BABIP sits at .246, compared to a career .295 mark.

Granted, Scott is venturing out of the strike zone more than he usually does. His outside swing percentage, 23.4 for his career, is 31.7 percent in 2010. That explains his career-low 7.5 percent walk rate. But in more than 1,900 career plate appearances with the Astros and O’s, Scott has taken a free pass 10.9 percent while batting .262/.346/.493 (.358 wOBA). It seems unlikely that he suddenly caught Francoeur-itis.

Scott’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .252/.335/.478, with a .356 wOBA. Given his multi-position eligibility (outfield and first base), he’s worth a roster spot in AL-only formats.

Since he broke into the big leagues back in 1999, Tim Hudson has quietly ranked among the better starting pitchers in the majors. According to Sean Smith’s historical Wins Above Replacement numbers, Hudson racked up nearly 41 WAR from ’99 to 2009. With a couple more solid seasons, the former two-way Auburn star will rank among the top 100 pitchers in career WAR.

Hudson’s combination of quality (career 3.81 FIP) and quantity (he has topped the 200-inning mark six times during his career) was interrupted in 2008, as the undersized righty had Tommy John surgery in August of that year. Hudson returned to a major league mound in September of 2009, and the 34-year-old looked none the worse for wear.

In 42.1 innings, Hudson had 6.38 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 and a 3.47 expected FIP (xFIP), getting ground balls at the highest rate of his career to that point (62.2 percent). Again showcasing one of the deepest arsenals among starters, Hudson posted a 9.5 percent swinging strike rate (9.3 percent career average, 8-9% MLB average) and he didn’t dawdle, either: he placed 52.7 percent of his pitches in the strike zone (52.5% career average, 48-51% MLB average) and got first pitch strikes two-thirds of the time (57.8% career average, 58-59% MLB average). In other words, it was vintage Hudson.

Encouraged by Hudson’s work, the Braves signed him to a three-year, $28 million contract extension, with a $9 million club option for 2013. So far in 2010, Hudson has thrown 44.1 frames and has a spiffy 2.64 ERA. Despite that ERA, his season has been a mixed bag.

The difference between Hudson’s ERA and xFIP (4.57) is nearly two runs. He has benefitted from a .234 batting average on balls in play, and his 85.6 percent rate of stranding base runners is way above the 70-72% big league average and Hudson’s career 73.8% strand rate.

He’s doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a new career-high 66.2 GB% that tops all starters. However, Hudson isn’t missing bats or painting the corners like he usually does. His swinging strike rate is down to 5.7 percent, and his percentage of pitches within the zone is 44.9. Hudson is inducing first pitch contact or getting ahead in the count 0-1 just 50.6 percent of the time. Given those figures, it’s no surprise that he’s striking out just 3.45 batters per nine innings and walking 3.65 per nine.

The sample sizes aren’t huge, but Hudson’s main offerings aren’t hitting their spots or fooling batters as much in 2010 as they did last September and early October:

I made bold the most marked changes between ’09 and ’10 Hudson. His four-seam fastball, changeup/splitter and slider are all getting fewer strikes and whiffs this season.

Hudson owners should watch his control and whiff rates. He’s not pitching poorly, but that 2.64 ERA is misleading. If he continues to garner so few swings and misses and has a merely average walk rate, Hudson loses his fantasy appeal.