George Kottaras, Brewers (Owned in 1% of Yahoo Leagues)

With Gregg Zaun (torn labrum) possibly done for the season, Kottaras is drawing the bulk of starting assignments behind the dish for Milwaukee.

The former Padres and Red Sox prospect owns a career .269/.367/.444 line in the minor leagues, including a .239/.331/.424 showing in Triple-A. Kottaras, 27, displayed good patience (13.3 BB%) and pop (.175 ISO) on the farm as a backstop, but he was often panned for his lack of defensive prowess — Sean Smith’s Total Zone system rates Kottaras as 18 runs below average during his minor league tenure.

Milwaukee is apparently willing to stomach Kottaras’ adventurous D in exchange for his bat, and with a strong showing in 2010, the lefty batter now has a .230/.353/.443 line and a .350 wOBA in 215 career major league plate appearances. Kottaras has rarely gotten himself out, swinging at just 15.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25-27% MLB average recently).

Kottaras will have to contend with prospect Jonathan Lucroy for playing time, but he’s worth a roster spot if he continues to get penciled into the lineup. ZiPS projects a .237/.341/.412 triple-slash for the rest of the year, with a .338 wOBA.

Kris Medlen, Braves (10%)

Eno Sarris mentioned the 24-year-old as a potential steal last month, and since then, Medlen has continued to deal.

A 10th-round pick out of Santa Ana Junior College in the 2006 draft, Medlen murderized minor league batters, first as a reliever and then out of the starting rotation. In 227 total innings (79 ‘pen appearances, 23 starts), the 5-10, 190 pound righty punched out 10.4 batters per nine innings, issuing just 2 BB/9.

In the majors, Medlen has 8.38 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 and a 3.69 xFIP in 116 innings (46 relief stints, nine starts). In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America said that the converted shortstop featured a 92-94 MPH fastball and a plus curveball that reached the high-80’s, as well as a solid slider and changeup. His repertoire in the big leagues has looked decidedly different: Medlen’s sitting about 90 MPH with his heater, relying heavily upon an 81 MPH changeup while adding in some high-70’s curves.

That might not scream “power pitcher,” and Medlen has predictably whiffed fewer batters as a starter. But, according to Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site, Medlen hasn’t lost zip on his fastball while facing lineups multiple times, and he’s doing an outstanding job of locating the fastball, change and curve for strikes.

Though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have played .500 ball to this point and have a run differential (negative 26) that suggests they’ve been lucky to break even, you can’t blame Jered Weaver. The 27-year-old righty, selected out of Long Beach State with the 12th pick in the 2004 draft, is turning in the best season of his major league career.

In 75.2 innings pitched, Weaver boasts a 3.40 expected FIP (xFIP) that places him sixth in the American League among starters tossing at least 50 frames. Weaver is displaying customarily sharp control, issuing 2.5 free passes per nine innings and getting ahead in the count with a 60.1 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). But the biggest reason for his lights-out pitching is a large increase in whiffs.

Weaver is getting swinging strikes 11.3% of the time in 2010, well above his career 9.4% mark and the 8-9% big league average. His overall contact rate is 75.1%, besting his 78.8% career clip and the 80-81% MLB average. On a related note, Weaver is getting hitters to expand their zones more often, with a 31.6 Outside Swing% (27.3% career average, 25-27% MLB average in recent years).

Consequently, Weaver’s K rate has climbed:

Heading into 2010, Weaver had 7.32 K/9 during his career. CHONE predicted 7.25 K/9 for him this year, and ZiPS 7.1 K/9. After an eight punch out performance against the Royals yesterday, Weaver now has 9.87 K/9 on the season. That’s second among AL starters, behind only Toronto’s Brandon Morrow. But Weaver has actually K’d more on a per-plate appearance basis: Jered has a 27.1 K%/PA, compared to 26.1% for the control-challenged Morrow (those extra free passes extend the inning and give him more chances to whiff batters).

So, is Weaver doing anything different this year? Here’s his pitch selection over the 2009 and 2010 seasons (data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site):

Jered’s four-seamer is a tick quicker, and his whiff rate with the pitch has gone from below the six percent big league average to a robust 9.3%. He has added a two-seamer to his repertoire, which may help explain his (relative) rise in ground balls (37.8 GB%, compared to a career 32.9 GB%). The whiff rate on his slider has increased considerably (from 12.2% to 17.3%), though his curve’s rate of whiffs has declined (12.7% in ’09 and 9.3% this year).

Weaver hasn’t thrown his changeup as much this season, but when he does, he’s still getting a ton of swings and whiffs. The relative difference in velocity between his four-seam fastball and change has increased — there was an 8.3 MPH gap in ’09, but an 11.6 MPH split in 2010.

There’s also a change in terms of the relationship of horizontal movement between the two pitches. In 2009, Weaver’s four-seamer had 3.3 inches of movement in on the hands of right-handed batters, while his change had 5.7 inches of movement away from lefty batters (a 2.4 inch difference). In 2010, Weaver’s four-seamer has 1.4 inches of horizontal movement, and his change has 6.8 inches (5.4 inch difference). For reference, the average difference in horizontal movement between four-seamers and changeups (per Somers’ site) is about half an inch.

Perhaps that big gap in movement, coupled with the introduction of the two-seamer (which has similar horizontal movement as the change), is flummoxing hitters. According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Weaver’s fastball/change combo is faring better than ever: his fastball has been worth +0.64 runs per 100 pitches thrown (+0.07 runs/100 career) and his changeup has been +2.79 per 100 tosses (+1.38 career).

Is Weaver’s increased K rate to be believed? To an extent. Strikeout rate per plate appearance for pitchers tends to become reliable around 150 batters faced, and Weaver has taken on 306 hitters so far this season.

The change is Weaver’s whiffs is reflected in his rest-of-season ZiPS projection — the ROS ZiPS are so helpful because they incorporate a player’s performance during the current season, giving us a more accurate reflection of his talents. ZiPS projects Weaver for about 7.8 K/9 for the rest of 2010, compared to the system’s 7.1 K/9 pre-season forecast. While Weaver isn’t likely to keep whiffing well over a batter per inning, his increase in K’s should not be written off as a total fluke. Odds are, he’ll keep some of the gains that he has made.

Minnesota Twins recalled 3B Danny Valencia from Triple-A Rochester.

Valencia, 25, might not be long for Minnesota — he’s replacing RF/reluctant 2B Michael Cuddyer (bereavement list) on the active roster. Then again, while Nick Punto has an outstanding glove at third base (career +19.5 UZR/150 in more than 2,000 innings), he’s hitting below even his modest standards. Plus, Brendan Harris‘ all-around poor play has resulted in a sub-replacement level performance. Minnesota has gotten a combined .257 wOBA from its third basemen, a mark of futility topped only by the Astros.

A 19th round pick out of the University of Miami back in 2006, Valencia entered the year ranked as a top 10 Twins prospect by Baseball America (number six), John Sickels (eight) and our own Marc Hulet (three).

Valencia hit well at the lower levels of the minors, batting .302/.374/.500 in 271 Low-A plate appearances and .313/.367/.469 at the High-A level in 501 PA. He continued to show power at Double-A in 2008 and 2009 (.287/.353/.483 in 539 PA), but extra-base hits have been rarer at the highest level of the minors. In 483 PA in the International League over the past two seasons, Valencia has a .289/.321/.421 triple-slash.

BA, Sickels and Marc all noted that Valencia’s plate discipline was rough, and the 6-2, 210 pound righty batter hasn’t done an especially good job of working the count over the years. That aggressiveness at least came with above-average pop in years past. But that hasn’t been the case with Rochester, and he’s hacking even more to boot:

Low-A (age 22): 10.3 BB%, 22.3 K%, .198 ISO
High-A (22-23): 8.6 BB%, 20.2 K%, .156 ISO
Double-A (23-24): 9.1 BB%, 22.7 K%, .196 ISO
Triple-A (24-25): 4.3 BB%, 15.6 K%, .132 ISO

According to Minor League Splits, Valencia’s work between Double-A and Triple-A in 2009 translated to a .248/.285/.389 line in the majors. His tepid 2010 works out to a .255/.302/.324 major league equivalent triple-slash. CHONE (.252/.295/.388 pre-season projection) and ZiPS (.251/.294/.377) forecast similarly mild lines for Valencia in the show.

As a mid-twenties farm talent who doesn’t work many deep counts and doesn’t possess mammoth power, Valencia has the look of a less-than-ideal option as an everyday player in the big leagues. Those in keeper leagues will probably want to look elsewhere, and owners would have to be pretty desperate for third base help to pick him up for the short term.

When the Cleveland Indians shipped C/1B Victor Martinez to the Boston Red Sox last July 31st, the club picked up LHP Nick Hagadone, RHP Bryan Price and RHP Justin Masterson. Hagadone was the long-term gamble, a post-Tommy John power lefty who’s struggling to find the zone in the minors. Price, a reliever, is dealing in the Eastern League.

Masterson, meanwhile, was supposed to slot right into Cleveland’s starting rotation, anchoring a Tribe starting five no longer featuring the likes of CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. So far in 2010, Masterson has a massive discrepancy between his peripherals and his ERA. In 53.2 innings, the 25-year-old has 9.06 K/9, 4.53 BB/9, a 61.9 GB% and a 3.59 xFIP. Yet, his ERA is over 2.2 runs higher, at 5.87. That’ll happen when your BABIP is .404 — the next highest BABIP among starters with 50+ IP is Gavin Floyd, at .366. Masterson has also stranded fewer runners than one would expect (63.9%). But that’s not to say that the former Sox prospect is without flaws.

Masterson’s talents are apparent — from a near-side-arm delivery, the 6-6, 250 pound righty throws low-90’s sinkers boring in on the hands of same-handed hitters and sliders catching the low-and-away portion of the plate. However, the same attributes that make him hell on righty batters leave him helpless against left-handed hitters.

Giving lefties a long look at the ball and relying upon two pitches with very large platoon splits (sinkers and sliders tend to be hammered by opposite-handed batters), Masterson shuts down righties and gets lashed by lefties. Take a look at his career splits by batter hand (his 2008 and 2009 numbers are divided between starting and relieving):

Without a changeup to speak of, Masterson is forced to combat hitters of both hands with the fastball and slider. Those offerings work wonders against fellow righties, but leave him lost against lefties. Courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, here’s Masterson pitch selection and performance by batter hand in 2010:

Against right-handers, Masterson jams hitters with his sinker or a harder fastball with less sink and horizontal movement (still sinker-like action, though the Pitch F/X system classifies it as a four-seamer and it does look like a distinct pitch). Or, he goes to the other corner of the zone with his slider, getting well above-average whiff totals with the fastballs and the slider. Versus lefties, he goes most often to that harder heater, but struggles to throw it for strikes and just about never gets a swing and a miss. He’s also having issues getting strikes with the slider.

Currently, Masterson is owned in just four percent of Yahoo leagues. AL-only players who are willing to play matchups could extract some value here — green-light him against righty-heavy lineups and bench him against a team with multiple lefty thumpers. He’ll undoubtedly pitch better from here on out, but in order to be more than a vexing fantasy option, Masterson needs to find a weapon to give him a chance against lefties.

You’ll have to forgive Cincinnati Reds righty Aaron Harang if he scowls in the direction of the Washington Nationals’ dugout on Friday night. His mound opponent, Livan Hernandez, has been Mr. Lucky this season. Livan holds a 2.15 ERA through his first 10 starts, despite a nothing-special 4.90 xFIP. Harang, by contrast, seems to have a black could hovering directly above his 6-foot-7 frame.

In 65.2 innings spanning 11 starts, the 32-year-old has a grisly 5.48 ERA. He has surrendered 79 hits and 11 home runs. It looks like Harang is getting hammered, and fantasy owners have jumped ship — his Yahoo ownership rate is down to 36 percent. But beneath those ugly numbers, Harang still possesses the skills of a quality starter worthy a roster spot.

Harang has whiffed 7.13 batters per nine innings, walking just 2.06 per nine. That way in which he’s getting those sturdy peripheral stats has been different in 2010. Normally a guy who fills the strike zone, Harang has instead relied upon hitters to chase his stuff off the plate. He has put 44.5% of his pitches within the zone (54.3 career average, 47.5% MLB average in 2010). But batters are taking the bait on outside pitches 30.4% this year, compared to a 24.4% career average and the 27.8% MLB average this season.

The process is different, but the results are the same: a slightly above-average K rate and few free passes. Harang’s xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 3.84. Few starters have displayed a larger split between ERA and xFIP. So, why is Harang’s ERA so huge?

For one, Harang’s batting average on balls in play is .338. It’s true that Harang has a higher-than-average BABIP during the course of his major league career, and he is giving up line drives at a 25.5% clip in 2010. But even so, expect that figure to regress somewhat — Harang’s career BABIP is .317, and his expected BABIP (based on the opposition’s rate of homers, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls and pop ups) is .315 this season.

He should also improve in terms of stranding base runners. Harang’s left on base rate is 66.2% this year, while his career strand rate is 73% and the major league average is in the 70-72% range.

Finally, Harang likely won’t be taken yard as often in the months to come. His home run per fly ball rate is 15.3 percent, compared to a career 11.2% rate and the 11% MLB average. Granted, Great American Ball Park produces more souvenirs than most venues — it has a four-year home run/fly ball park factor of 114, meaning GABP produces 14 percent more dingers per fly ball hit than a neutral field. But even allowing for that fact, as well as Harang’s fly ball tendencies, he has been unlucky.

GABP causes about 12.5 percent of fly balls hit to turn into homers (multiplying GABP’s HR/FB park factor, 1.14, by the average rate at which fly balls become round-trippers — 11 percent). At home, Harang has given up a home run on eight of his 50 fly balls allowed (16 percent). On the road, he has allowed 3 homers on 22 fly balls (13.6 percent). Overall, Harang should have surrendered either 8 or 9 home runs instead of 11. So, his HR/FB rate would be 11.1% if he gave up eight HR and 12.5% if he allowed nine HR. Harang’s not a great fit for his home park, but expect fewer slow trots around the bases for the opposition.

This would be a good time to snag Harang — he’s available in the majority of leagues, and he hasn’t suddenly turned into a punching bag. That black cloud above Harang’s dome should dissipate soon.

Arizona Diamondbacks acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis from the Detroit Tigers for RHP Billy Buckner.

As part of the deal, the Tigers will pick up what’s left of Willis’ $12 million salary for the 2010 season, save for the prorated portion of the big league minimum.

From 2003-2006, Dontrelle averaged 3.8 Wins Above Replacement per season. Since then, the lefty with the signature leg kick has racked up just 0.7 WAR, losing all semblance of strike zone control while battling knee, forearm and anxiety issues.

Happily, Willis is backing to taking regular turns in the rotation. But it’s difficult to be especially optimistic about his ability to contribute. Moving back to the NL certainly won’t hurt the D-Train’s chances of a career revival, but in 43.1 IP with the Tigers this season, he had 6.85 K/9, 6.02 BB/9, a 45.5 GB% and a 4.93 xFIP.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last month, we took a gander at starting pitchers who had significant differences between their respective ERAs and xFIPs. xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, does a better job than ERA of gauging performance in the areas over which pitchers have the most control. It’s not subject to more luck-based factors such as batting average on balls in play, strand rate and home runs per fly ball hit.

Now that another month has passed, let’s update the ERA-xFIP lists for the 2010 season. Here are the 20 starters whose ERAs are far lower than their xFIPs (minimum 30 IP for the season):

In general, you’ll note very low BABIPs and home run rates, as well as high rates of stranding runners on base.

As mentioned last time, an appearance on this list does not make a pitcher “bad” or a “fluke” — there are plenty of useful starters here, and at least one elite arm. However, looking at the ERA-xFIP split can make owners view big “breakouts” from the likes of Niemann, Cahill, Buchholz, Pelfrey, Garza and Sanchez with a more skeptical eye. Zito, Fister and Garland are generating more grounders, pitch in front of quality defenders and reside in pitcher’s parks, but those shiny ERAs are going to rise.

And here are the 20 starters whose perhipherals suggest better days are ahead:

This is basically the flip side of the previous list — very high BABIPs and home run rates, and low strand rates. Haren (profiled here), Beckett, Masterson (expect a post on him later this week) and Harang (ditto) stand out here. Jackson isn’t really pitching much differently than he did with Detroit last year, and Peavy isn’t that far off realistic expectations, once you account for his pitching in the DH league in a hitter’s park.

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals

During the first three full years of his major league career, Zimmerman combined fantastic D with an above-average bat — his wRC+ from 2006-2008 was 110. Since then, the fourth pick in the 2005 draft has kept the slick leather and improved his lumber. He posted a 132 wRC+ in 2009 and holds a 160 wRC+ in 2010.

Zimmerman’s power production has soared, with his Isolated Power figures going from the high 100’s to .233 in ’09 and .295 this season. ISO tends to become reliable around 550 plate appearances, and Zimmerman has been hitting for elite pop for nearly 900 PAs now. His rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .289/.361/.522 triple-slash, with a .233 ISO. Remember Scott Rolen’s peak? Zimmerman, 25, is now that type of player.

Phil Hughes, Yankees

Though he has seemingly been a topic of conversation for years, Hughes turns just 24 this month. And he has been great as a starter — in 56.2 frames, he has 9.05 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.63 xFIP. The 6-5, 240 pound right-hander is doing a great job of getting ahead in the count, with a 67 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average), and he’s getting batters to chase out of the zone 34.8% (27.8% MLB average). That’s the sixth-highest chase rate among MLB starters tossing at least 40 innings.

How is Hughes getting the job done? With 92-93 MPH fastballs and high-80’s cutters that hitters can’t seem to lay off. The 2004 first-rounder has gone to his fastball about 52 percent, getting a strike 70.2 percent of the time (64.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 9.3% (6% MLB average). Batters have offered at the four-seamer 51.9 percent (45.2% MLB average).

The cutter, used about 27 percent of the time, has been thrown for a strike 75.1% (66.7% MLB average). It’s getting whiffs 10.4% (8.4% MLB average) and has been swung at 63.1% (50% MLB average). Hughes’ curve isn’t faring as well, with below-average strike, whiff and swing rates, but the fastball and cutter have made him death on righties (2.88 xFIP) and acceptable against lefties (4.40 xFIP).

If Hughes is still available in your league, well, what are you waiting for? ZiPS projects 8.51 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.68 FIP from here on out. The Yankees are going to be cautious with his workload, but he’ll continue to deal when he’s on the mound.

Ryan Doumit, Pirates

The 29-year-old switch-hitter has a Tolstoy-length injury history — a torn hamstring in 2006, a concussion as well as a wrist and ankle sprain in 2007, a fractured thumb in 2008 and a wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 — but when he’s not hurting, he’s mashing.

After posting a 126 wRC+ during a (moderately) healthy 2008, Doumit’s production dipped considerably in 2009 (85 wRC+). Some of that was poor luck on balls put in play, but he hacked at a career-high 33.2% of pitches thrown outside of the zone.

In 2010, Doumit has chased 24.2% of off-the-plate pitches, and he’s drawing walks at a career-best 10.3% clip. His first pitch strike percentage is just 44.6 — that’s lowest among MLB batters with at least 100 trips to the plate. Doumit has a 127 wRC+ in 175 PA, with a .281/.371/.451 line. ZiPS projects a .277/.339/.458 showing for the rest of 2010, which is plenty useful for a backstop. But if Doumit continues to work the count well, his value gets a boost.

Of course, all of this is assuming he doesn’t hit the DL tomorrow.

Akinori Iwamura, Pirates

Picked up from Tampa Bay over the off-season for RHP Jesse Chavez (who was subsequently sent to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano), Iwamura has effectively lost the starting gig at the keystone spot for Pittsburgh to Neil Walker.

CHONE (108 wRC+) and ZiPS (107 wRC+) both forecast Iwamura for a solid offensive season, getting on base at a characteristically high rate while displaying little pop. Instead, Aki has a 49 wRC+ in 181 PA. He’s drawing a walk 12.1% of the time, but an incredibly low BABIP has made him one of the worst players in the majors to date.

During his major league career, Iwamura has a .330 BABIP. CHONE projected a .343 pre-season BABIP, and ZiPS .345. Aki’s 2010 BABIP? .198. He has had fewer batted balls classified as line drives (13.3%, compared to a 19.4% career average), and his ground ball rate has spiked to 58.6% (47.3% career average). That helps explain why his ISO is .076, below his pre-season projections of .109 from CHONE and .114 from ZiPS, as well as his career .108 mark.

Those aren’t promising developments, but Iwamura probably hasn’t totally lost it — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .262/.337/.369, with a .319 wOBA. Even so, the Pirates’ decision to give Walker (profiled here) a shot is defensible. The 24-year-old has a .262/.307/.449 rest-of-season ZiPS. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle second base, and he’s no top prospect these days. But Walker could be part of the next relevant Pirates team, while Iwamura won’t be.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Since returning from a neck/back strain, Matsuzaka has been a pain in the neck to Sox fans and fantasy owners alike. Dice-K has 6.55 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 5.49 xFIP in 34.1 innings pitched. He has put 46.4% of his pitches within the zone (47.5% MLB average), and he’s getting first pitch strikes just 52.4%. Matsuzaka also isn’t missing bats — his swinging strike rate is 6.4%, compared to the 8-8.5% MLB average and his career 9.7% average.

During his first two seasons state-side, Dice-K was basically a league-average starter (4.31 xFIP in 2007, 4.70 in 2008). He was control-challenged, but at least compensated with good K rates. Last year’s shoulder ailment and 4.83 xFIP, coupled with more injury concerns and lousy pitching this season, make him hard to recommend. The upside here would appear to be a 4.25-4.50 ERA. Is that worth all the aggravation?

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Beckham went from Athens to the South Side in short order, putting up a .270/.347/.460 triple-slash and a 112 wRC+ in 2009. CHONE (115 wRC+) and ZiPS (111 wRC+) predicted more of the same for the 23-year-old, and Beckham’s value received an extra boost fantasy-wise with his shifting from third to second base.

Flash forward two months into the 2010 season, and Beckham is owned in just 42% of Yahoo leagues. He has a ghastly .196/.286/.239 line in 187 PA, with a 45 wRC+.

It would be rash to sell low on Beckham in keeper leagues, as he remains a valuable long-term talent, but he looks lost at the plate at the moment. After swinging at 24.8% of out-of-zone pitches during his rookie year, Gordon has gone fishing 30.6% this season. His groundball rate is up 10 percentage points (40.4% to 50.4%), and his pop up rate has increased — 14%, compared to 11.9% last year and the 7-8% big league average. Beckham’s .043 ISO puts him in the illustrious company of Jason Kendall and teammate Juan Pierre.

He’s not going to keep a .238 BABIP, but Beckham is surely testing the patience of owners who have stuck with him through his struggles.

Enjoy the long weekend even more by picking these two under-the-radar players…

Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers (owned in six percent of Yahoo leagues)

The 27-year-old entered the season as a huge question mark, all but forgotten after missing most of the 2008 and 2009 campaigns following surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. But happily, Bonderman has made a strong return showing in 2010. In 47.2 innings pitched, he has 8.12 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.97 xFIP.

He’s not the same power pitcher of years past — Bonderman is averaging 89.2 MPH with his fastball, down three to four ticks from his peak velocity. His slider, once a mid-80’s breaker, now averages 82.1 MPH. Bonderman has a 37.5 GB% in 2010, compared to a career 46.4 GB%.

Despite the velocity decline, he has nonetheless baited batters into chasing his stuff off the plate 33.7 percent of the time (27.7% MLB average in 2010), while also getting swinging strikes 9.4 percent (8-8.5% MLB average). Bonderman’s slider is giving hitters fits — they’re swinging at the pitch 54.7% (47.7% MLB average), coming up empty 23 percent of the time (13.6% MLB average).

It’s hard to say if he’ll remain healthy, but Bonderman is well worth picking up in AL-only leagues and has enough talent left to be of use in most mixed leagues, too.

Corey Hart, Brewers (40%)

Hart hammered pitchers in 2007, batting .295/.353/.539 with a .380 wOBA. He also nabbed 23 bases in addition to hitting 24 homers. Though the 6-6 righty batter again went 20/20 in 2008 (20 HR, 23 SB), Hart’s triple-slash dipped to .268/.300/.459, with a .327 wOBA. His Isolated Power, .244 in ’07, declined to .191. Most disappointing, Hart hacked at 31.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone in 2008, after chasing 25.7 percent the previous year (the MLB average was around 25% both seasons). As a result, his walk rate dipped from an already-low 6.4% in 2007 to 4.1% in 2008.

Last year, Hart improved ever so slightly — he posted a .260/.335/.418 triple slash (.331 wOBA). He traded some power for walks, with his ISO falling to .158 but his rate of free passes taken climbing to 9.1%. Hart didn’t run much (11 SB), but stopped chasing so many junk pitches, with a 23.5 O-Swing%. In 2010, Hart has kept the walks and started mashing to boot.

The 28-year-old right fielder has a .261/.329/.542 line in 158 plate appearances, good for a .371 wOBA. He’s walking in 9.5 percent of his PA and venturing out of the strike zone just 20.9%, while also popping 10 HR and putting up a .282 ISO. About the only disappointing aspect for fantasy folks is Hart’s three SB on the season.

Before you go batty over Hart’s Herculean power numbers, keep in mind that it takes about 550 PA for a change in Isolated Power to become reliable. Hart’s got pop — his career ISO is .203, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .209 ISO — but he’ll probably post an ISO closer to .200 than .300 going forward. ZiPS thinks Hart will post a .349 wOBA (.263/.326/.471) for the rest of 2010.

This past off-season, the Los Angeles Dodgers shipped outfielder Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox for pitching prospects Jon Link and John Ely. Pierre is playing good D on the South Side, but his wretched hitting (.254/.305/.286, .285 wOBA) makes him a sub-optimal starter. Ely, meanwhile, made his major league debut in late April and has since made opposing hitters look like Pierre clones — batters have a .226/.260/.301 triple-slash against the Matthew McConaughey doppelganger. Who is this guy, and will he continue to produce for L.A.?

A product of Miami (Ohio) University, Ely was popped in the third round of the 2007 draft. At the time the Pale Hose picked him, Baseball America gave the following assessment of Ely:

Ely is just 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, and he has a head jerk in his maximum-effort delivery. His stuff is hard to argue with, however. His 89-94 mph fastball and his vastly improved changeup both qualify as plus pitches, and his curve is an average offering. Though he lacks smooth mechanics, he throws strikes and has a resilient arm that never has given him problems.

After getting his feet wet in the pros in rookie ball that summer (56 IP, 9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.50 FIP), Ely made his full-season debut at High-A Winston-Salem in 2008. The former RedHawk attacked Carolina League hitters, striking out 8.3 per nine innings, walking 2.85 and posting a 4.02 FIP in 145.1 innings pitched. Though he served up 1.11 home runs per nine frames, Ely kept the ball on the ground with a 50.2 GB%. Following the season, BA praised Ely’s tumbling changeup and well-placed 88-94 MPH fastball, but cautioned that his curveball lacked consistency and that “there’s a lot of effort in his delivery.”

Bumped up to Double-A Birmingham in 2009, Ely had 7.2 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9 and a 3.33 FIP in 156.1 innings of work. He continued to induce grounders, with a 50.5 GB%. Prior to 2010, Baseball America noted that Ely’s fastball rarely cracked 90 MPH anymore, but contended that “his mid-70’s changeup is an equalizer.” Some concerns were voiced about his lack of a third consistent pitch — he experimented with a cut fastball/slider during the ’09 season to better handle lineups the second and third time around.

Ely opened this season at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he compiled a 12/8 K/BB ratio and allowed 6 runs in 18 IP. During his first six starts with the Dodgers, covering 39 innings, the 24-year-old has 7.38 K/9, 1.38 BB/9 and a 3.32 xFIP.

True to the scouting reports, Ely isn’t lighting up radar guns — his fastball is averaging 87.9 MPH. However, he’s not using the pitch much (about 32 percent), and when he does, he gets strikes (70.1 percent, 64.4% MLB average). Ely’s bread-and-butter is his changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com, he has pulled the string about 41 percent of the time. The change has garnered a strike 74.2 percent (60.7% MLB average), and it has been whiffed at 21.6 percent (12.6% MLB average). He’s also mixing in mid-80’s sliders/cutters, as well as a slooow 70 MPH curve.

Despite his modest stuff, Ely has managed to get swinging strikes 9.1 percent to this point (8-8.5% MLB average), while getting batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 29.1% (27.7% MLB average).

Heading into the season, neither ZiPS (5.53 K/9, 4.11 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9, 5.29 FIP) nor CHONE (6.7 K/9, 4.25 BB/9, 1.58 HR/9, 5.39 FIP) liked Ely’s chances of making a positive contribution at the big league level. Excellent start aside, owners should approach Ely with realistic expectations. Given his good, not great minor league track record and finesse repertoire, it would be best to view Ely as more of a pitcher capable of delivering league-average production than a breakout prospect.