Few players in recent memory have disappointed more than Delmon Young. The first overall pick in the 2003 draft hammered minor league pitching to the tune of .318/.363/.518, displaying top-shelf power while taking on pitchers several years his senior. His plate approach was raw (6.3 BB%). But Young was ranked as a top three prospect by Baseball America each season from 2004 to 2007, and he elicited Albert Belle comparisons for his ability to drive the ball.

Young got a cup of coffee with Tampa Bay back in 2006, with a .316/.336/.476 line in 131 plate appearances. He swung at positively everything (50.3 O-Swing%, 0.8 BB%), and his BABIP was .370. But even so, it’s impressive for a 20-year-old to manage an above-average big league performance with the lumber (.343 wOBA, 110 wRC+). Unfortunately, the righty batter showed little improvement over the next three seasons:

2007: .288/.316/.408, .315 wOBA, 91 wRC+
2008: .290/.336/.405, .324 wOBA, 99 wRC+
2009: .284/.308/.425, .312 wOBA, 90 wRC+

That weak hitting, coupled with clunky defense, made Young worth a combined -1.7 Wins Above Replacement. In 2010, the 24-year-old Twin is batting .274/.314/.474, with a wOBA (.338) and wRC+ (109) better than the league average for the first time since he debuted with the Rays. Is he finally making some progress? To an extent, yes.

Young remains an ultra-aggressive batter, swinging at far more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone than the big league average. After hacking at 39.8% of off-the-plate pitches from 2007-2009 (25% average during those seasons), Delmon is going after 38.8% of out-of-zone offerings in 2010 (28% MLB average). His walk rate is up, though we’re speaking in relative terms — Young is drawing ball four 6.7% of the time, compared to 4.2% from ’07 to ’09.

So, his plate approach still leaves much to be desired. But Young has made strides in terms of making contact and hitting for power. His contact rate on in-zone pitches was 85.1% from 2007-2009 (88% MLB average) and his overall contact rate was 75.1% (81% MLB average). He’s connecting 89.6% of the time when pitchers give him something over the plate this year, and 83.1% overall. Young’s whiff rate is down to 12.6% in 2010, after peaking at 23.3% last season.

Once dubbed an “intimidating presence” at the plate by Baseball America, Young rarely went deep or split the gaps in years past. After posting a .159 ISO in his big league stint in ’06, he had a .119 ISO in 2007, and a .115 ISO in 2008. Young improved somewhat in 2009 (.142 ISO), and he has a solid .200 ISO this season. The big difference? He has stopped chopping the ball into the dirt so often:

2007: 46.3 GB%, 32.6 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2008: 55.2 GB%, 27.8 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2009: 49.7 GB%, 34.1 FB%, 11.4 HR/FB%
2010: 45.3 GB%, 38.4 FB%, 11.5 HR/FB%

Fewer grounders and more fly balls — that’s clearly a good trade-off when it comes to hitting for power. It’s pretty hard to get an extra-base hit on a Baltimore Chop. The AL slugging percentage on grounders has ranged from .238 to .262 over the past three seasons. The AL slugging percentage on fly balls has been between .566 and .603. Young’s career slugging percentage on grounders is .274, and his career SLG% on fly balls is .610.

Fly balls do fall for hits on balls put in play less often than ground balls, which partially contributes to Young’s .270 BABIP on the season. But even with a higher fly ball rate, his expected BABIP (xBABIP) is .315. Chances are, Young finishes the season hitting closer to .290 than .270.

Overall, there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic about Delmon Young. He’s still getting himself out too often. However, he is starting to tap into the power that he displayed as a prized prospect. Young has a long way to go to ever be an offensive star, but he’s at least keeping his head above water after a few seasons of sub-replacement-level play.

A night after getting mauled by cyborg..er Stephen Strasburg, the Pittsburgh Pirates promoted RHP Brad Lincoln to start Wednesday night against the Nationals. Two roster spots were opened up yesterday — 1B Jeff Clement was sent to Triple-A Indianapolis and LHP Jack Taschner was DFA’d — and the other spot is expected to go to OF Jose Tabata. If that move becomes official, look for a post on Tabata tomorrow.

Lincoln, 25, was the fourth overall pick in the 2006 draft. The University of Houston product starred on the mound and in the batter’s box for the Cougars, but a power pitching arsenal assured that he’d leave the bat behind as a pro. Here was Baseball America’s scouting report of Lincoln at the time:

He sits at 91-93 mph with good life on his fastball, touches 95-96 most games and has peaked at 98. He holds that velocity throughout games. His curveball is equally as impressive, and he can throw it for strikes or break it out of the zone as a chase pitch. He also shows feel for a changeup that’s close to an average pitch already. Lincoln is close to big league ready and his competitive makeup means he’ll get everything out of his considerable ability.

Unfortunately, the 6-foot righty would toss just 23.2 innings as a Pirates farmhand in 2006 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery the following April. After missing the entire 2007 season, Lincoln returned in 2008 and split his season between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Carolina League. At the lower level, he had 6.68 K/9, 0.87 B/9 and a 3.78 FIP in 62 IP. In the Carolina League, Lincoln logged 41.2 innings and had rates of 6.26 K/9, 2.38 BB/9 and a 4.23 FIP. Though he didn’t strike out a ton of batters, Lincoln was stingy with the walks and kept the ball down (a combined 50.9 GB% between the two levels, according to Minor League Splits).

In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, BA said that Lincoln’s post-Tommy John velocity returned to the 90-93 MPH range, and his hammer curve regained its bite. His changeup was said to need work, though, and he also “caught too much of the strike zone at times, making him susceptible to home runs.” (Lincoln surrendered about 1.1 HR/9 in ’08)

In ’09, Lincoln again divided his season between two levels. In the Double-A Eastern League, he whiffed 7.8 per nine, walked 2.16 and had a 2.96 FIP in 75 innings. A low homer rate (0.48 per nine) contributed to that sub-three FIP, however, and his ground ball rate dipped to 43.8%. Promoted to the Triple-A International League, Lincoln threw 61.1 innings with rates of 6.16 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9 and a 3.85 FIP. He was an extreme fly ball pitcher for the Indians, getting grounders just 34 percent.

Sent back to Indy to begin the 2010 season, Lincoln improved his K rate (7.2 per nine), kept the walks low (1.8 BB/9) and had a more neutral GB/FB profile (42.6 GB%), posting a 3.67 FIP in 68.1 IP.

While no premier prospect, Lincoln has the look of a quality mid-rotation arm. He controls his low-90’s fastball well, has an above-average curve and while his change doesn’t draw much praise, he hasn’t shown much a platoon split in the minors (3.88 FIP versus lefties, 3.78 FIP against right-handers). According to Minor League Splits, Lincoln’s ’09 pitching translated to a major league line of 5.64 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 4.57 FIP. His 2010 season equates to 6.09 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.85 FIP. Before the season began, CHONE projected 6.22 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 1.34 HR/9 and a 4.70 FIP, while ZiPS forecasted 5.58 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.65 FIP.

Lincoln’s worth an add in NL-only formats, given his adequate punch out rates and low walk rate. He’s probably not a prime target in keeper leagues, but he’s someone to monitor there, too. Watch his ground ball rate, though — as BA indicated, home runs could become a problem.

The Chicago Cubs enter play today at 26-32, with a negative 12 run differential. According to CoolStandings.com, the club has less than an eight percent chance of making the playoffs. While the Cubs boast the second-best starting pitcher xFIP in the NL, the bullpen has been a middle-of-the pack unit (eighth) and the offense places just 10th in the Senior Circuit in wOBA (.325).

To find out why the Cubs aren’t hitting well, look no further than the corner infield spots. Derrek Lee (.317 wOBA) isn’t meeting expectations to this point, but Aramis Ramirez has been the worst position player in the game. A-Ram ranks dead last among qualified batters in wOBA (.231). A consistent four-to-five win player from 2004-2008, Ramirez has been 1.2 wins below replacement in 2010.

And now, Ramirez will apparently hit the DL with a lingering injury to his left thumb.

Ramirez, 32, missed considerable time last season with a dislocated left shoulder suffered while diving for a grounder in May. But when he was in the lineup, he raked — a .317/.389/.516 triple-slash in 342 plate appearances, with a .199 ISO and a .392 wOBA. That power figure was down from previous seasons (his ISO ranged from .229-.269 from 2004-2008), but Ramirez still had excellent projections entering 2010:

CHONE: .289/.359/.502, .213 ISO, .373 wOBA
ZiPS: .295/.368/.519, .224 ISO, .384 wOBA

Instead, A-Ram has a .168/.232/.285 line in 198 PA, with a .117 ISO. His strikeout rate, 15.5% during his big league career, is 25.1%. He’s swinging through a good deal of pitches within the strike zone — Ramirez’s Z-Contact rate is 84.1%, compared to an 87.6% career mark and the 87-88% MLB average.

A .189 BABIP hasn’t done him any favors, but Ramirez is hitting line drives just 15.3% of the time (19.8% average since 2002) and is producing a bunch of weakly hit fly balls. Ramirez has lofted the ball 59.9% of the time this season, compared to a 45.1% average since ’02, and his home run per fly ball rate is just 6.1% (13.4% since ’02).

Ramirez has been bullied by fastballs. Per 100 pitches, he was about +1.3-+1.4 runs above average against heaters from 2007-2009. With a bum thumb, he has been -3.77 runs below average versus fastballs in 2010. That’s, by far, the worst mark in the majors. When Ramirez puts a fastball in play, he’s often hitting feebly to the opposite field (chart from texasleaguers.com):

Speaking of going oppo, Ramirez is hitting to the center and opposite fields more often, with awful results:

Some of Ramirez’s paltry numbers on balls hit to center and right is due to his low BABIP, but he’s not hitting with any power to those fields, either. The thumb injury, the problems with fastballs and his pulling fewer pitches are all indicative of a player who can’t turn on the ball like he typically does.

Without A-Ram, the Cubs will likely rely on Mike Fontenot against right-handers and Jeff Baker versus lefties (Fontenot is still getting some PT at second base, too). Chad Tracy, inked to a minor league deal over the winter and hitting .396/.427/.641 in 91 AB at Triple-A Iowa, is expected to be added to the active roster.

Johan Santana’s career credentials are unquestioned. The Venezuelan southpaw, a Rule V gem who won two Cy Young Awards with the Twins, has a 3.39 FIP in the majors. He’s got over a K per inning during his career, and he topped the seven WAR mark each season from 2004-2006. Santana was “merely” a four-to-five win pitcher in 2007-2008, before elbow surgery to remove bone chips ended his ’09 season early and caused him to post 2.8 WAR.

On the surface, the 31-year-old’s 2010 season looks like vintage Santana — in 78.1 innings, he’s got a 2.76 ERA. But the process behind those results isn’t as impressive.

While the Queens version of Santana in ’08 and ’09 didn’t miss bats at the same rate as his halcyon days with the Twins, he still managed swinging strike rates in excess of 11 percent (8-9% MLB average) with an overall contact rate in the 77-78% range (80-81% MLB average). This season, Santana is getting swinging strikes 9.4%, with a contact rate right around the big league average.

As a result, Santana’s strikeout rate has declined — from 7.9 batters per nine innings in ’08 and ’09 to 6.55 K/9 in 2010. His walk rate has climbed somewhat as well (2.76 BB/9, from the 2.4-2.5 BB/9 range the previous two years), though not alarmingly so. Santana’s expected FIP (xFIP), derived from a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 4.48.

Now, that mark likely exaggerates the extent of Johan’s struggles. His BABIP is pretty low at .268, but Santana has generally posted lower-than average BABIP figures (.286 career). Santana gets a lot of fly balls (35.8 GB% in 2010, 37.8 GB% career), which have a lower BABIP than grounders. He induces a lot of weakly hit pop ups, with a 12.7% infield fly rate this year and a 13.2% mark for his career. Santana’s rate of stranding base runners (79.7%) is well above the 70-72% MLB average, but his career rate is 77.5%. It seems reasonable to suggest he’ll continue to have a LOB rate above the big league norm. Santana’s home run per fly ball rate (5.5%) almost assuredly will rise, though.

So, Santana hasn’t performed near as well as his ERA suggests, but probably not as poorly as his xFIP indicates. His falling K rate is worth examining further, however. The velocity on Santana’s four-seam fastball has declined again this season, as has the zip on his slider. But those aren’t the root causes for the reduced number of whiffs. Take a look at Santana’s whiff percentage by pitch over the 2008-2010 seasons (data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site):

Perhaps as a result of hitters not anticipating it as much, Santana has actually gotten a higher whiff rate on his four-seamer. His two-seamer has a very low whiff percentage in 2010 after getting an above average number last season. That most glaring difference, however, is the whiff rate on the changeup. Santana’s signature change got a whiff 22.4% in ’08 and 17.4% in ’09, but just 13.6% this season (12.1% MLB average). That’s a substantial drop.

Though his ERA is pristine, Johan Santana really isn’t in the conversation anymore when it comes to the absolute best starters in the game. That doesn’t mean he’s done being a quality pitcher, but he’s not fooling hitters with the same regularity these days.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano, 26, has reclaimed his place as one of the game’s elite starters. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, the lefty posted back-to-back ordinary seasons in 2008 (4.31 xFIP) and 2009 (4.55 xFIP), lacking the power, control and strong ground ball tendencies which allowed him to wreak havoc in ’06. He also missed time last season with elbow and forearm injuries, again calling into question his durability.

In 2010, however, Liriano has 9.41 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, a 49.5% rate of grounders and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks second to Cliff Lee among qualified AL starters. His mid-80’s slider has always been wicked — it has a +2.49 runs/100 value during his career, and is at +2.71 this season. He’s going to that breaking pitch about 36 percent of the time. But it’s Liriano’s two-seam fastball that’s making a big difference.

Liriano’s heat has been hammered for a -0.8 runs/100 mark during his career, but the pitch (up to 93.5 MPH, from 91 MPH in ’08 and ’09) has a +0.5 runs/100 value this year. He’s throwing the pitch for strikes (64.6%, 61.9% MLB average). Couple the souped-up, well-located fastball with Liriano’s untouchable slider — he’s throwing the pitch for strikes 74.7% (62.7% MLB average) and getting whiffs 24% (13% MLB average) — and you have the recipe for pitcher’s counts and little contact. Liriano’s first pitch strike percentage is 61.6% (58% MLB average) and his contact rate is 75% (80-81% MLB average).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Speaking of improved pitches, Pelfrey’s splitter has helped him take a step forward this season. The 6-7 sinkerballer threw his tailing low-90’s fastball nearly 80% of the time in years past, getting ground balls put few punch outs. He experimented with sliders and curves, but neither pitch has been especially effective (-0.76 runs/100 for the slider, -0.2 runs/100 for the curve).

Pelfrey has shifted his pitching strategy this season, going to his fastball about two-thirds of the time and throwing a mid-80’s splitter nearly 19 percent. He’s still keeping the ball down (a career-high 52.5 GB%), but Pelfrey’s K rate has climbed to 6.53, his best showing in the majors. While he hasn’t morphed into the ace that his ERA (2.39) suggests, Pelfrey has a quality 3.87 xFIP. His strand rate (near 83 percent) and sub-six HR/FB rate will likely rise. Still, the changes in Pelfrey’s game make him an asset to the Mets and a guy worthy of fantasy consideration.

Jay Bruce, Reds

“The Boss” entered the season as a prime rebound candidate, given his history of pulverizing minor league pitching and his strong walk and power numbers that were obscured by a low BABIP in 2009. So far, so good for Cincy’s 23-year-old right fielder: Bruce has a .368 wOBA.

He hasn’t quite displayed the light-tower power of past seasons (.197 ISO), but Bruce is still putting a charge into the ball often enough while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His rate of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone has gone from 30.4% in 2008 to 26.1% last season, to 24.4% in 2010. Consequently, his walk rate has climbed — 7.3% in ’08, 9.8% in ’09 and 12.4% this year. Bruce has top-shelf secondary skills, and the best is yet to come.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Eno was all over the news that Sizemore underwent microfracture surgery, a devastating blow to the Indians and fantasy owners who were looking for a rebound from one of the game’s best players — Sizemore averaged 6.4 WAR per season from 2005-2008, with a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that was 33 percent above average (133 wRC+).

Sizemore declined to a 112 wRC+ during an ’09 season marred by abdominal and elbow injuries, both of which required surgical fixes. In 2010, he had a paltry 53 wRC+, as his normally excellent patience and pop were nowhere to be seen. Sizemore’s outside swing rate soared to 33 percent (19.1% career average) and his rate of swings on pitches within the zone dipped to 59.4% (65.3% career average). His ISO was just .078 (.204 career).

Hopefully the 27-year-old can return and resume being a franchise-type player, but the truth is, we just don’t know how the procedure will affect his play. Those in keeper leagues have to be feeling Sizemore’s pain.

Cameron Maybin, Marlins

Mike Stanton’s in the big leagues, and early indications are that Cody Ross will shift to center to make room for the 20-year-old masher. That means less PT for Maybin.

While fellow 2005 first-round fly catchers Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Colby Rasmus have established themselves in the majors, Maybin has scuffled. In 489 career PA, the 23-year-old has a .308 wOBA, with rough plate discipline (7.6 BB%, 31 K%).

Maybin’s at an uncomfortable, in-between state right now. He’ll either see reduced playing time in the majors, hardly optimal for his development, or perhaps he’ll head back to Triple-A, where he already proved himself last season (.387 wOBA). Ross could be headed out of town in the next couple of months, opening up an everyday job for Maybin. His long-term potential is still excellent. But for now, Maybin’s no longer a prospect and not yet an accomplished big leaguer.

J.J. Hardy Twins

Minnesota acquired Hardy during the off-season for CF Carlos Gomez, hoping that J.J. would provide superb D and produce offensively at a level closer to his 2007 (.338 wOBA) and 2008 (.355 wOBA) work than his .292 mark in 2009. While Hardy, 27, has lived up to expectations with the leather, he has been a near-automatic out at the dish.

When healthy enough to take the field (he served a DL stint with a left wrist sprain, which apparently is still bothering him), Hardy has a .268 wOBA. His .237 BABIP will improve to an extent (though his line drive rate is generally pretty low, and his pop up rate high). Hardy’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .312 wOBA. Coupled with rangy defense, that’s good enough to make him a solid starter for the Twins. ZiPS doesn’t know about Hardy’s wrist, though, and fantasy players getting none of the benefits of Hardy’s glove will want to look elsewhere for shortstop help.

With Trevor Time becoming more terrifying than thrilling for the Milwaukee Brewers, the club has recently turned to John Axford to shut the door in the late innings. The 27-year-old righty has a 1.9 Leverage Index this season, highest among regular Brewers relievers. Who is this mustachioed man of mystery?

A Notre Dame product, Axford was once viewed as a high-round draft prospect. The lanky 6-5, 195 pound Canadian featured plus velocity and hard breaking stuff, but his hopes of draft day riches were dashed by Tommy John surgery in late 2003. He missed the 2004 college season and threw all of three frames for the Fighting Irish in 2005. The Cincinnati Reds took a flyer in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft. Here’s how Baseball America described Axford at the time:

RHP John Axford flashed first-round potential in the Cape Cod League in 2003, but had Tommy John surgery that December. He has been slow to come back, missing all of 2004 and working just three innings this spring. He had a low-90s fastball and a plus curveball before he got hurt, though his command was sporadic. Because he’s a redshirt junior, a team could take him as a draft-and-follow.

Axford didn’t sign on the dotted lined with Cincy, instead transferring to Canisius College of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for the ’06 season. Unfortunately, he walked nearly 10 batters be nine innings for the Golden Griffins, and scouts fled in horror.

Our hero next took the bump north of the border, pitching in the collegiate Western Major Baseball League. Axford K’d plenty of batters in Canada, and the Yankees were impressed enough to give him an opportunity as a non-drafted free agent. But alas, he’d last just one season with the Bombers — Axford whiffed 9.6 batters per nine frames while pitching mostly in the short-season New York Penn League and the Low-A South Atlantic League (he also appeared in the High-A Florida State League and had a cameo in the Triple-A International League), yet he also issued 6.4 BB/9. New York axed Axford in December of 2007, giving him his release.

The Brewers snagged him in March of 2008 and sent him to Brevard County in the High-A FSL. Axford began the year as a starter, but he was shifted to the bullpen when his control woes again surfaced. Overall, he logged 95 innings (14 starts, 12 ‘pen appearances) with rates of 8.43 K/9 and 6.92 BB/9. Only a very low homer rate (0.47 HR/9) kept his FIP out of the fives — it was 4.47.

In 2009, Axford went on a whirlwind tour that took him from High-A to the majors, with stops at Double-A and Triple-A in between. Pitching 68.1 combined innings in the FSL, Southern League and the Pacific Coast League, Axford punched out 11.7 hitters per nine frames. He still handed out free passes generously, with 5 BB/9. Though he didn’t get a ton of grounders (45%, according to Minor League Splits), Axford surrendered 0.4 HR/9. His FIP was in the low threes.

Reaching Milwaukee in September of ’09, Axford posted a 9/6 K/BB ratio in 7.1 IP, allowing three runs while mopping up (0.18 Leverage Index). True to that BA scouting report years earlier, Axford displayed 94 MPH heat and sharp breaking stuff — a mid-80’s slider and an 80 MPH curveball.

Axford opened 2010 back at Triple-A Nashville, where he struck out 19 and walked five in 13.1 innings, coughing up seven runs (three earned). Promoted to the big leagues in mid-May, Axford has a 15/5 K/BB ratio in 12 IP, with four runs allowed. He’s sitting between 95 and 96 MPH with his fastball and getting swings on pitches out of the zone 39.2 percent (it’s an extremely small sample).

Given his Wild Thing Vaughn-like control, Axford’s big league projections aren’t kind. ZiPS thinks he’ll post a 4.78 FIP for the rest of 2010, with 8.74 K/9 and 7.41 BB/9 (be warned, Carlos Marmol — your reign as king of reliever free passes may be over). CHONE forecasted a 4.75 FIP, 8.61 K/9 and 6.07 BB/9 leading up to the season.

That being said, Axford is well worth taking a chance on. He has excellent stuff, misses bats and is owned in just one-quarter of Yahoo leagues. Maybe his tendency to lose the zone will doom him long-term. But Axford’s career path has been anything but conventional, and if he does succeed in a high-leverage role, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a reliever emerges out of relative obscurity.

Adam Lind must feel left out. Most of his Blue Jays teammates are mashing — Toronto leads the majors in Isolated Power (.225) by a wide margin, and with a .339 wOBA, the Jays trail only division foes New York and Boston among AL teams.

Lind, however, is scuffling. The 26-year-old busted out last season for a .305/.370/.562 line and a .394 wOBA. ZiPS and CHONE figured that Lind’s bat wouldn’t be as potent this season…

Lind’s Preseason projections

ZiPS: .277/.339/.488, .359 wOBA
CHONE: .293/.350/.502, .368 wOBA

..but those lines still projected well above-average hitting from Toronto’s 2004 third-round pick.

Unfortunately, Lind’s hitting just .210/.279/.370, with a .286 wOBA. That’s bad for any player. But it’s abysmal for a guy who spends most of his time at DH, while occasionally lumbering around left field. After putting up 3.5 Wins Above Replacement in 2009 and signing a long-term deal with Toronto this past April, Lind has been worth -0.7 WAR.

Some of Lind’s lackluster offensive showing can be explained by a low batting average on balls in play. His BABIP is .247, well south of his career .305 BABIP. Lind’s expected BABIP (xBABIP), based on his rate of long balls, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls and pop ups, is .316. So, it’s reasonable to say that the lefty batter has had some poor luck to this point. However, he’s still falling short of expectations when it comes to driving the ball and laying off of junk pitches.

Lind’s power output surged last season — he popped 35 home runs and had a .257 Isolated Power. Coming into 2010, ZiPS projected a .211 ISO and CHONE a .209 ISO. So far, he’s got a .160 mark. His home run per fly ball rate, 19.8% last year and 14.9% for his career, sits at 11.3%.

In 2009, Lind hit for power to all fields. This season, he’s hitting a lot of balls weakly to the middle field. Check out his spray splits for ’09 and 2010:

He’s still pulling the ball better than the average lefty batter, and his opposite field performance remains well above average despite a big dip in BABIP. Lind’s BABIP on balls hit up the middle is extremely low (.132), but he’s not showing any pop to center — a .058 ISO, compared to .273 in 2009 and the .140 average for lefty batters.

Lind’s power has been disappointing, but it’s probably too soon to make much of the 50 point gap between his actual and projected ISO. The steps backward that he has taken in controlling the strike zone, however, are more worrisome.

He was pretty jumpy at the plate from 2006-2008, chasing 32.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the MLB average was about 25% during those years). During his banner ’09 season, Lind laid off more out-of-zone pitches — his O-Swing dipped to 24.7%. This year, he’s hacking at 31.1% of pitches tossed out of the zone, compared to the 27.9% MLB average.

Lind’s strikeout rate has spiked as well. He’s whiffing in 27.4% of his PA this season (18.7% in 2009 and 20.6% for his career). He’s swinging and missing at more of those out-of-zone pitches (64.9 outside contact rate in 2010, compared to 70.5% in ’09 and a 67.6% career average), and his in-zone contact rate has declined a point, from 87.9% to 86.9%.

Adam Lind probably hasn’t forgotten how to hit. Even if he keeps his current, hack-tastic approach, he’ll perform much better as his BABIP climbs. But bad luck aside, he’s doing a pretty good job of getting himself out right now — Lind’s expanding his zone, and the result is weaker contact, and less contact overall.

Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is a special talent. The Texas prep product, taken with the seventh pick in the 2006 draft, used his searing fastball and knee-buckling breaking stuff to whiff over 11 batters per nine innings in the minors. He reached L.A. at age 20, and has since K’d more batters per nine frames (9.4) than any starter not named Rich Harden, Tim Lincecum or Erik Bedard.

It seems like Kershaw’s already an ace — after posting a 4.26 ERA during his rookie season in 2008, he pared that mark down to 2.79 in 2009 and currently holds a 3.06 ERA in 2010. But has the prized young starter made the sort of marked progress suggested by his ERAs? I’m not so sure.

Kershaw’s contact and swinging strike rates have, without question, improved. Opponents made contact against him 79% in 2008, 77.1% in 2009 and have a 71.6% rate this season (80-81% MLB average). Kershaw’s swinging strike rate has shot up from 8.7% in ’08, 10% in ’09 and 12.1% in 2010 (8-9% MLB average). Consequently, his punch out rate has soared — 8.36 K/9 in ’08, 9.74 K/9 in ’09 and 10.19 this year.

But those extra swings and misses have come at a price. Kershaw’s walk rate has gone from 4.35 per nine in ’08, 4.79 BB/9 in ’09 and 5.35 BB/9 in 2010. Taking a look at his splits, it becomes apparent that Kershaw owns lefties, but his performance against right-handers lags behind:

His xFIP against lefties is 3.05 this season, and 2.07 for his career. Kershaw’s xFIP against right-handers is 4.74 this year and 4.60 for his career. Despite walking well over five righty batters per nine frames during his time in the majors, Kershaw hasn’t been hurt badly by opposite-handed hitters. Why? a minuscule home run per fly ball rate against righties — 1.8% this season, and 5.2% during his career.

Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site shows that Kershaw’s arsenal blows away same-handed batters, but he’s mortal against righties:

He still gets a healthy numbers of whiffs with the fastball against righties, but obviously nowhere near the stratospheric rate against lefties. Kershaw’s strike percentage dips a bit as well, but not tremendously so. The big change is that he swaps some sliders for curveballs against righties. That low-70’s deuce, once dubbed “Public Enemy Number One,” is rarely thrown for a strike and isn’t getting many swings and misses. Kershaw’s changeup has never been a big component of his repertoire, but he’s throwing it to righties even less this season — 2.1%, compared to 5.1% last season.

As a rookie, Kershaw’s xFIP (3.96) outpaced his ERA (4.26). Since then, it’s been the opposite. He had a 3.90 xFIP in 2009 (2.79 ERA) and has a 4.26 xFIP in 2010 (3.06 ERA). He does seem to pitch well from the stretch (career 76.8 LOB%, compared to the 70-72% MLB average), and better pitchers (particularly high-K pitchers) will tend to post higher strand rates.

However, as mentioned earlier in the look at Kershaw’s splits, the main reason for the ERA/xFIP dichotomy is an extremely low HR/FB rate — Clayton had an 11.6 HR/FB% in ’08 (right around the MLB average), but that mark fell to 4.1% last year and is 3.9% in 2010. Color me skeptical that he’ll continue to give up homers on fly balls at a clip that’s less than 40% of the big league average. It’s likely that opposing batters will find the bleachers with greater frequency in the months to come.

None of this is to disparage Clayton Kershaw — he’s still younger than some of the guys who will get drafted tomorrow evening, yet he has already established himself as a quality major league starting pitcher. Given Kershaw’s skills, it’s entirely possible that he makes improvements in his game and tames his wildness against right-handers. But, at the present moment, he’s still an unrefined talent with some blemishes to his approach. He’s very good — I just don’t think he’s great yet. Short of gains being made with his control, Kershaw’s ERA may be closer to four than three from here on out.

Carlos Quentin crushed the ball during his first season with the White Sox, batting .288/.394/.571 with a .414 wOBA in 2008. Though The Cell is a power-friendly venue (increasing runs by nine percent and homers by 25 percent from 2007-2009, per the Bill James Handbook), Quentin’s wRC+ was still stellar at 154.

Since then, Quentin has stumbled. Over the 2009-2010 seasons, the former Diamondbacks prospect has a .331 wOBA. His park-and-league-adjusted wOBA is one percent worse than the league average (99 wRC+). Considering his stationary defense, he has been a serious drag on Chicago’s playoff chances — he was worth -0.4 Wins Above Replacement in 2009, and has already racked up a full win below what one would expect from a freely available Triple-A talent in 2010.

Injuries have been a serious problem throughout his career. Prior to reaching the South Side in exchange for DH/1B/OF/3B/? Chris Carter in December of 2007, the Stanford product’s pro debut was delayed by Tommy John surgery in 2003, and he suffered a left shoulder injury that required surgery in ’07. Quentin fractured his right wrist in early September of 2008 after slamming his bat in frustration, and he missed a sizeable chunk of the 2009 season with Plantar Fasciitis in his left foot. A tight hamstring bothered him in late April and early May of this year.

A banged-up Quentin isn’t hitting with the same authority. His ISO was .283 in ’08, .219 last season and .190 in 2010. Not surprisingly, his performance when pulling the ball has taken a big hit, as have his numbers when hitting the ball up the middle:

An otherworldly pull and mid-field hitter in 2008, Quentin has been decidedly below-average since. As is the case with most batters, nothing much happens when Quentin hits to the opposite field. And he’s hitting to the right side more than ever in 2010: 28.3 percent, compared to 17.8% in 2009 and 22.6% in 2008.

It’s true that Quentin had a .221 BABIP in ’09 and currently has a .199 BABIP in 2010, fourth-worst among qualified batters. But his career BABIP in the majors is .248, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .257 BABIP. The odds of Quentin continuing to post a sub-.200 BABIP are very slim, but there are several reasons why he gets fewer hits on balls put in play than most:

He hits few line drives

Line drives hit in the American League this season have a .726 BABIP — they fall for hits far more than any other batted ball type. While line drive rate isn’t the most stable metric from year-to-year, Quentin has a career 15.8 LD%. His LD% over the past three seasons (15.7) is one of the twenty lowest marks among MLB hitters with at least 500 plate appearances.

He pops the ball up often

Quentin has a 15.1 infield/fly ball percentage in 2010, and his career rate is 12.5%. Pop ups are the closest thing to a gimme out on a ball in play, and he hits far more than most batters. The average IF/FB% is between seven and eight percent.

He’s slow

Along with line drive rate, batter’s eye and pitches seen per PA, Speed Score is one of the variables that has a positive effect on BABIP. With an aching foot, the 6-1, 230 pound Quentin has become increasingly sluggish — his Speed Score was 4.0 in ’08, 3.1 in ’09 and is 2.1 this season (the MLB average is five).

While Quentin’s monstrous 2008 season was probably at the upper bounds of what anyone could have expected from him, his work over the 2009-2010 seasons has undeniably been disappointing. Many owners have cut ties — the 27-year-old’s Yahoo ownership rate is down to 47 percent. Quentin can’t seem to stay healthy, and his power numbers have declined. He’s worth a flyer if available, but that ’08 production doesn’t appear to be coming back any time soon.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool.

San Francisco Giants purchased the contract of OF Pat Burrell from Triple-A Fresno; optioned OF John Bowker to Fresno.

“The Bat” ‘s lumber has flat lined since he inked a two-year, $16 million deal with Tampa Bay prior to the 2009 season. Burrell posted a combined .381 wOBA from 2006-2008, but he plummeted to a .304 wOBA as the Rays’ DH last season, battling a neck injury that forced him to the DL for a month.

Before drawing his release from Tampa in late May, the 33-year-old posted a .284 wOBA. San Francisco scooped him up on a minor league deal, and after a tune-up at Fresno, Burrell’s back in the big leagues. However, his utility to the Giants (not to mention his path to playing time) is unclear.

After routinely putting up Isolated Power marks in the .200-.250 range as a Phillie, Burrell had a .146 ISO in ’09 and has a .136 ISO in 2010. He has scuffled against fastballs and sliders over the past two years — he was -0.62 runs/100 against heaters in ’09, and is at -2.03 runs/100 when pitchers challenge him in 2010. Against sliders, he was -1.1 runs/100 last season and -3.37/100 this year. Burrell’s line drive rate, 20.7% for his career, was 18.1% last season and 16.7% in 2010. Those numbers portray a hitter having difficulty catching up to high-speed stuff in the majors, making less and less hard contact.

Coming into the season, CHONE projected Burrell for a .329 wOBA. ZiPS’ rest-of-season projection forecasts a .339 wOBA. Considering Burrell’s plodding D, it’s hard to say what he offers San Francisco that, say, Nate Schierholtz (.339 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, and a quality fielder) or Bowker (.332 ROS ZiPS) don’t. Granted, Bowker’s mashing and newfound patience at Fresno in ’09 (.342/.451/.596, 16.4 BB%) didn’t translate to the majors this season, but is he really a worse bet than Burrell going forward?

With Buster Posey now in the fold, San Fran has added another defensively-challenged player to the outfield mix in Aubrey Huff. Andres Torres is drawing every day play, and Aaron Rowand, despite replacement-level performance to this point, will likely keep his job. That leaves Burrell as a glorified fifth outfielder, drawing the occasional start against a lefty.

The first pick in the ’98 draft has enjoyed plenty of outstanding years at the plate. But when the skill for which you’re nicknamed vanishes, and your D draws groans, it’s a pretty quick path to retirement.