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$1 Second Basemen: Rodriguez, Espinosa, Hill

We debuted our second base rankings this morning and the usual suspects – Cano, Utley, Pedroia, etc – sat at the top. The players I’m going to discuss reside far from the top of the second base mountain and should be available very late in your draft, or on top of the waiver wire once the draft is completed. Either way, they’ll likely have value that outweighs their draft position.

In all likelihood Sean Rodriguez is going to be starting  for the Tampa Bay Rays on opening day. We’re not just sure exactly where. Luckily for us Rodriguez has second base eligibility wrapped up. Last year the Tampa Bay Rays employed a platoon with Rodriguez, Ben Zobrist, and Matt Joyce between second base and right field. That platoon is likely to remain in place, to start the season at least, as Joe Maddon has said he plans on easing Joyce in against left handed pitching.

No matter the position, Rodriguez is going to get his share of at bats. He has extremely good power for second base and mashes left handed pitching. His triple slash line against LHP last season was .292/.375/.442. The Rays will give him an opportunity to prove his worth against right handed pitching as well, and as long as he isn’t completely inept against them he should be a lock to receive 400+ at bats. Strikeouts will limit his average, but 15 home runs is a realistic goal for Rodriguez in 2011.

The Nationals haven’t come out and said that Danny Espinosa is their starting second basemen this season, but the team likes his glove and he is being given every chance to win the job. In 112 plate appearances last year Espinosa racked up only 22 hits, but half of those went for extra bases, including six home runs. His power his legit – his SLG% never dipped under .460 in the minors – and he has decent speed, stealing 29 and 30 bases at AA and AAA.

That power comes at the expense of his batting average, though. He doesn’t make a lot of contact, in face he’s never had a K% lower than 23.2 at any professional level. While the power is legit and makes him an attractive buy low candidate from a traditionally power starved position, he did have surgery over the winter on his hamate bone. From someone who has broken their hamate bone before let me tell you that it doesn’t heal quickly. Having said that, his power potential would be too much for me to shy away from come draft day.

This last hitter may very well go for more than $1 in nearly every league, but he is still being greatly undervalued due to his 2010 season. It is a fact that Aaron Hill was the unluckiest hitter in baseball last season. His BABIP was a paltry .196, lowest for all qualified batters. That lead to a .205 batting average. Our own Eno Sarris gathered the statistics and calculated his expected BABIP (xBABIP) as .250. Don’t ask me how he got that number, just trust in the powers of Eno. Using that figure we can guesstimate that Hill’s average should have been in the .250-.270 range.

Despite the poor BABIP and batting average Hill managed to hit 26 home runs in 580 at bats. There was one extremely noticeable change in Hill’s game from 2009 to 2010; he stopped hitting line drives. His LD% dipped from 19.6 to 10.6. The Blue Jays’ hitting coach installed a swing-as-hard-as-you-can philosophy in the players, which lead to an amazing number of home runs but little else. There is no way Hill can be that unlucky two seasons in a row. That alone should be enough to propel him back toward the upper echelon of second basemen.


Old Faces in New Places: Beltre and Reynolds

Over the past six or so seasons few players have been as misunderstood as Adrian Beltre. The big contract he earned after the 2004 season in which he hit 48 home runs has clouded people’s opinion of him. Is he ever going to show that much power again? Probably not, but the 28 home runs and .233 ISO he put up last year show what he is capable of when he escapes Seattle. If you ignore his 2009 season in which he hit only 11 dingers, Beltre averaged nearly 24 home runs in the Emerald City. That number isn’t far off his 28 last season in hitter friendly Boston, but it came with a far inferior averge ISO of .188. The higher the ISO the better the opportunity for extra base hits. Safeco Field consistently ranks as one of the toughest parks in the majors for hitters, stifling right handed power like the Florida sun. Fenway Park is the polar opposite; a great hitters’ park that is the primary reason Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame.

As good as Fenway was to Beltre, he’ll be spending the next five years of his life in an even better location: The Ballpark at Arlington. The .321 average Beltre posted last season should fall a bit since it’s unlikely he’ll maintain a .331 BABIP. However, the power numbers are real, and I’d expect him to run a bit more with the Rangers (123 SB last year, 68 for Boston) and increase his steals from 2 back into the 10-12 range. If you believe Beltre is only going to hit well in a contract year, then nothing I say is going to change your mind. For those of us who believe, and we do here at RotoGraphs if you check out our position rankings, the 2011 season should be good to Beltre.

Another third baseman on the move is strikeout king Mark Reynolds, leaving the hitter haven that is Chase Field for the beauty of Camden Yards. Baltimore is also a very good hitters park, so nothing substantial will be gained or lost in that department. Reynolds presents a conundrum for fantasy owners. His strikeout totals are astronomical, yet his power numbers are extremely coveted. Even in a year in which he hit .198 he somehow managed to smack 32 dongers in less than 600 at bats. The drop in batting average is due to a BABIP of .257, which is just a tad below his career average of .346. Reynolds’s FB percentage rose to a staggering 54.9% last season, seven percent higher than the previous year. The increase in fly balls means a drop in line drives and groundballs, resulting in far more outs and substantially less power – he dropped 50 points in ISO from 2009. He’ll be surrounded by a better set of teammates in Baltimore, taking the offensive pressure off of his back and creating more RBI opportunities than he had in Arizona. Cutting down on the fly balls will be the key to his continued fantasy revelance.


Position Battles: First Base For the Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have never been known to do things in a traditional way. Bat a rookie catcher lead off? Sure. Platoon your shortstop based on the opposing pitcher’s GB/FB tendencies? Absolutely. Seemingly use a different lineup every night? Why not? They thrive in the unorthodox and relish in the abnormal. For a team in contention for another division title, having such a question mark at a cornerstone position like firstbase is anything but normal.

This isn’t a position battle in the true meaning of the phrase. Those usually leave one player either released or relegated to giving teammates hotfoot while on bench duty. As currently constituted, Dan Johnson is the Rays starting firstbasemen, though he could have competition.. The last time Johnson played a full season in the big leagues was 2007 with Oakland. He then spent 2008 in the Rays organization at AAA Durham, and all of the 2009 season in Japan. Most of Johnson’s 2010 season was once again spent in Durham where he hit well enough to earn himself 140 plate appearances with the Rays later in the year. Despite a .198 average in those 140 appearances, Johnson slugged seven home runs and walked 25 times.

The Rays feel good about Johnson, but 140 appearances is a small sample size. Many projection systems are high on Johnson this season, but Marcels is a bit more pessimistic, giving Johnson only 270 plate appearances and a .233/.327/.414 slash line. If he can maintain something close to his .339 wOBA from last season, and hit decently enough against left handed pitching, he’ll likely keep his job all season and be a viable fantasy asset. If not, there is someone waiting to take those at bats. His name is Ben Zobrist.

Fantasy wise, Zobrist is most valuable at second base due to his combination of speed and power.  He’s likely to get starts all over the diamond, but could gain first base eligibility rather quickly if Johnson slips. The Rays have two very capable players in Sean Rodriguez and Matt Joyce who play Zobrist’s two fantasy positions, second base and the outfield. The Rays’ ability to man those positions ably without Zobrist would make the transition to firstbase a rather easy one. The 2010 season wasn’t a kind one to Zobrist, but while his power numbers were way down he still maintained some value by swiping 24 bags. He’s likely never going to hit 27 home runs again as he did in 2009, but nearly every projection has him back into the 15-20 homer range. The increased power coupled with tri-positional flexibility gives Zobrist back much of the value he lost last season.


$1 Catchers: Shoppach and Torrealba

Here are two catchers who should be available for $1 in most leagues that have a good chance to outproduce that price due to their power.

Last year, a Rangers’ catcher with a baseball bat was kind of like a mule with a spinning wheel; nobody knows how he got it and danged if he knows how to use it*. Ok, that may be a bit of an exaggeration, but the sentiment remains. Other than the Mariners’ backstops, you could make a strong case that Texas catchers combined to have the worst offensive season in baseball. They hit .214/.288/.320 while muscling just 13 balls over the fence despite playing in hitter-friendly Arlington. 2011 should prove to be a different story as the Rangers traded for Mike Napoli and signed Yorvit Torrealba to don the tools of ignorance – instantly upgrading production at the position.

Napoli qualifies as a catcher, but will likely end up being more of a rover; receiving more starts at first base and designated hitter, leaving a majority of the catching atbats to Torrealba. As a Padre last season Torrealba had arguably the best season of his career, hitting .271/.343/.378 with seven home runs and seven steals – incredibly hitting .312/.394/.429 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. While the home numbers are inflated by an unsustainable .396 BABiP, he is moving to the hitter friendly confines of Arlington. Marcel projections, which don’t take parks into effect, project Torrealba for eight home runs in 2011. Given what a good hitter’s park Arlington is, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pass that number this season.

*Any chance I get to weave in a Simpsons’ quote, I’m going to take it

Most of the attention garnered by Tampa Bay Rays’ catchers last season was centered around John Jaso. That kind of thing happens when you hit .263/.378 (AVG/OBP) with five home runs, and four steals in 404 plate appearances as a rookie. Kelly Shoppach went unnoticed as a result – and with good reason. He missed more than a month due to injury and hit just .196/.308/.342 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 187 PA’s.

The Rays are going to platoon the two backstops, leaving the right handed Shoppach to do what he does best – mash left handed pitching. He has a career .949 OPS against southpaws, compared to just .679 against RHP. While 2010 was a down year overall Shoppach still showed he had a little pop, posting a .193 ISO against LHP. That number is good, but a far cry from his absurd 2008 and 2009 totals of .272 and .321. If healthy, and properly platooned – 2010 was the first time in three years he had more PA’s vs LHP than RHP – there is an excellent chance he could find his power stroke once again and cross the 10 home run barrier.

A side note: If I’m wrong and he falls flat on his face, look for newly acquired Robinson Chirinos to get a shot at the right handed platoon role.