Author Archive

Shortstops: Early Season Additions

It’s been over a month since we debuted the shortstop player rankings. We’re only a little over a week into the season so it’s too early to make any significant changes to the rankings, but there have been many surprises among the position. Let’s take a look at a few of the more interesting players that have emerged thus far:

Willie Bloomquist

If I gave you 100 guesses at naming the third ranked overall player so far according to Yahoo! I’m betting no one would guess its Willie Bloomquist. The usually light hitting shortstop, who has never ended a season in which he gathered 100+ PA’s with an OPS over .700, is tearing the cover off of the ball. Originally filling in for the injured Stephen Drew, Bloomquist’s triple slash line of .394/.429/.524 with six stolen bases looks like a misprint. Now that Drew is back, Diamondbacks Manager Kirk Gibson has tried to find ways to keep Bloomquist’s bat in the lineup, playing him in left field the past two games. There’s zero reason to believe he’ll keep hitting anywhere close to this pace. His K% is only 6.1 so far, down from 17.5% for his career. The reduced strikouts are resulting in more line drives falling for hits; his LD% is up ~9% from last season. His ownership numbers are jumping by the day, but if you want to ride a hot hitter who will pick you up some cheap steals at a weak position there are worse options than Bloomquist. That’s a sentence I never thought I’d type.

Read the rest of this entry »


Waiver Wire: Longoria Replacements

The Rays may be 0-3 and off to the worst start in franchise history, but the biggest concern in the Tampa Bay area revolves around the health of Evan Longoria.

The All-Star third basemen has been put on the 15 day disabled list and will miss a minimum of three weeks. That loss presents a giant hole to fill for both a Rays lineup that already needed help scoring runs, and fantasy owners who grabbed Longoria in the early rounds of their drafts. The third base position isn’t particularly deep this season, so finding a suitable replacement may prove difficult. Lets take a look at a few possibilities…

Sean Rodriguez and Felipe Lopez

These two will be picking up the playing time in Tampa Bay with Longoria out. Rodriguez is owned in nearly 100 percent of ESPN leagues, so he’s not likely to be found on the waiver wire. However, if you have another player on your team that can handle second base or the outfield – Rodriguez’s two eligible positions – he could fill in nicely at the hot corner. One issue facing Rodriguez is the fact that he doesn’t yet qualify at third base. Give it a week or so and he should pick up the minimum amount of starts to qualify. We know what the 25-year-old brings to the table. He hits left handed pitching exceptionally well, and while he struggles a bit against right handed pitching his outstanding defense should allow him more starts against righties.

When Rodriguez is not in the lineup he’ll be replaced by recently recalled Felipe Lopez. A switch hitter, Lopez has better career numbers against righties, but over the last three seasons has hit .297/.350/.413 against southpaws. He already qualifies at third base, as well as second base and shortstop, and that versatility could prove very valuable over the next few weeks. Lopez had a substandard 2010 season, hitting .233/.311/.345 in 441 PA’s, but proved valuable in 2008 and 2009. Marcel projections a .270/.340/.389 line from Lopez this season, and he’s only owned in o.3% of ESPN leagues at the moment. Keep an eye on when he plays, but you could certainly do a lot worse in the shallow pool of third basemen.

Danny Valencia

It’s rare to find a starter at a shallow position owned in so few leagues (4.1% ESPN), especially one who enjoyed the half season that Danny Valencia did in 2010. In 322 PA’s the rookie put up an impressive line of .311/.351/.448 and even hit seven home runs. Expecting that same type of production is likely foolish, but Valencia is very capable of putting up an average in the .280-.290 range with ~15 home runs. The fact that he’s available in 96% of leagues is frankly shocking to me. You know how many third basemen hit .300 with 15+ home runs last season? Three. Valencia is capable of that. In fact, picking him up only as a replacement for Longoria may be a waste of his abilities. While he might not crack your starting lineup, he’s a very valuable player to stash away on your bench for the entire season.


Random Thoughts on Shortstops

Stealing Jeff’s format from his post yesterday, I’ll be looking at some various shortstops around the fantasy landscape. It’s been a few weeks since shortstops were discussed in these pages, aside from going over how bad they are, and while not much has transpired, there is something to be said.

Stephen Drew

The only major news coming out of the shortstop community lately is the concern over Stephen Drew’s availability for opening day due to an  abdominal injury. The MRI results were negative, and while it doesn’t look like he’ll be put on the disabled list, he could still be held out a few days as a precautionary measure. The problem for the Diamondbacks, and potentially for fantasy owners, is that the team doesn’t have a suitable backup for Drew. They recently put Tony Abreu on waivers, so he could potentially be claimed by another team. That leaves utility man Willie Bloomquist, but his .299 OBP last year isn’t appealing on any level.

We have Drew rated as the sixth best shortstop this season, and we know the SS talent pool isn’t very deep so any loss to an upper tier player will be felt more so than positions.

In case Drew is out for any extended period of time here are some shortstops to consider that are owned in less than 10% of all ESPN or Yahoo! leagues.

Yuniesky Betancourt (7% Yahoo!)

I never thought I’d be writing a blurb Yuniesky, but here I am. Somehow in 2010 he managed to hit 16 home runs after never showing that much power potential anywhere throughout his career. If you believe he magically found a power stroke and will continue to hit 10+ homers then by all means pick him up. He does have a full time gig, which most players with such a low ownership percentage do not, so if anything he’ll get the at bats. His average won’t kill you (.272 career), but he doesn’t run or provide relevance in any other category.

Cliff Pennington (1.1% ESPN)

Another shortstop with job security, Pennington’s only asset is his ability to steal bases. He only hit .250 and got on base at a .319 clip in 2010, but managed to swipe 29 bases. Oakland’s offense is fairly weak once again, so Pennington should get the green light to run whenever he feels the need. For someone with no power, he would be well served to try and flip his GB (35.6%) and FB (43.0%) percentages this season. If, and it’s a big if, he’s able to do that his value will surely increase.

Jerry Hairston Jr. (3% Yahoo)

A player with multipositional eligibility (2B, SS, OF), Hairston is once again in a part time job, this time with the Nationals. He should see some at bats in a platoon with Rick Ankiel in centerfield, and will undoubtedly see action at the other up the middle positions as well. The past two seasons Hairston has averaged roughly 450 at bats and hit 10 home runs in each campaign. That type of power plays at a weak hitting position like shortstop. Playing time will be hard to pinpoint, but in a pinch there are worse options.


Waiver Wire: Silva Cut, Morgan Traded

Over the weekend the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals each did some house cleaning, dispelling themselves of  a couple of volatile and disgruntled players in Carlos Silva and Nyjer Morgan. The impact of these moves is minor in the world of fantasy, but will be felt nonetheless.

The Cubs released Silva on Sunday after one season with the team while still owing him $11.5 million dollars. It’s not hard to see why the Cubs chose to part ways with the pudgy starter. While his numbers weren’t awful in 113 innings last season – 4.22ERA/3.90 xFIP – Silva has a 5.87 ERA in 55 starts since he signed his big contract with the Mariners. He’s also gotten into a few dugout altercations, has never been in shape, and criticized the team publicly – and that was just this spring. There had been rumblings that the Cubs were trying to trade Silva, with the Yankees and Nationals reportedly scouting him, but no deal could be reached. Silva shouldn’t have been owned in mixed leagues, so his joblessness won’t be felt by many. The most interesting aspect of Silva’s departure is the man replacing him in the Cubs’ rotation.

Andrew Cashner has limited MLB experience, his 54.1 IP last season all being in relief. While he walked too many hitters (4.97 BB/9) in those 54 innings, his K/9 was a healthy 8.28 and ERA and xFIP of 4.80 and 4.40 were respectable for a rookie. Many publications believe Cashner’s best value would lie in being a power reliever, maybe even an eventual closer, but the contract that Carlos Marmol received this off season made that less of a reality. Instead, he’ll slide into the back of the Cubs’ rotation. The Marcel projection system has Cashner down for a 4.24 ERA and 4.25 FIP for 2011, but that is in 52 innings of relief work, so take that for what you will. He has a plus fastball that sits in the 92-94 range, a passable changeup, and a slider that gets strikeouts with the same frequency as his fastball. He’s mostly an NL only play for now, but possesses the tools and pedigree to have value in mixed league formats as well.

Unlike the Cubs, the Nationals were able to find a take for their malcontent, trading Nyjer Morgan to the Milwaukee Brewers for Cutter Dykstra and cash. Morgan had been in a battle this spring for playing time with Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston JrRoger Bernadina, and Mike Morse among others. That battle is clearly over, and Bernadina has since been demoted. If Morgan hadn’t worn out his welcome with two suspensions last season, he certainly had this spring, telling reporters that he expected to be traded and that a change of scenery might be best for him. An extremely productive player as recently as 2009 – .307/.369 with 42 SB – he slipped a bit last season but still produced 34 steals.

If Morgan was unhappy with his playing time situation in Washington, he’s really going to hate it in Milwaukee. Carlos Gomez is the incumbent starter and has been assured by the manager and GM that the job is still his. Morgan will serve as a suitable 4th outfielder and pinch runner unless an injury occurs – effectively killing his fantasy value. Back in D.C. early signs point to Rick Ankiel and Jerry Hairston Jr sharing the centerfield duties, which isn’t encouraging for fantasy owners. For a team that is going nowhere this season it would seem like giving the younger Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse more playing time would be the smart way to go for the Nationals. You know exactly what you’re getting from Ankiel and Hairston, why not explore the talents of the younger (though Morse isn’t exactly a kid) players. The four outfielders would all be platoon players, which isn’t something fantasy owners like to see. The situation is a mess at the moment, and I’d recommend staying away until things get settled.


The Ugly Truth: Shortstops After Ramirez and Tulowitzki

When you look at something like the Empire State Building from afar it’s hard to get a full appreciation of just what you’re seeing. You understand it’s a big building, and hey, that’s cool, but it isn’t until you take a closer look that you can really stand back and say “Wow”. The same can be said of shortstops not named Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki this season, just in an opposite sense.

The “Wow” refers to just how bad the position is.

Read the rest of this entry »


AL Sophomore Starters: Davis and Matusz

The American League Rookie of the Year award may have gone to Neftali Feliz last season, and deservedly so, but the two sophomores I’m looking most forward to following this season are Wade Davis and Brian Matusz.

Each pitcher resides in the middle of our AL starting pitching rankings, and each also have the unfortunate assignment of playing in the American League East this season. Neither the Rays nor the Orioles will depend on the performances of these starters to succeed – the Rays are too good and the Orioles have too many other problems – but both will get ample opportunity to add on to their successful rookie campaigns.

Read the rest of this entry »


NL SP: Old Faces In New Places

It’s no secret that I’m a big American League East fan. I root for the Rays, and generally enjoy being in competition with the Red Sox, Yankees, Jays, and Orioles. It’s just a better brand of baseball. With some hitter friendly ballparks and many of the best offenses in the game under one divisional umbrella it can prove a pretty tough for task for any pitcher. The two names I’m going to look at today have escaped the AL Beast and hopefully can find more fantasy value in the senior circuit.

We’ll start with someone who will always hold a special place in my baseball heart, Matt Garza. The special place Garza holds is due to his brilliance in Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS, but that’s neither here nor there. He was shipped to the Cubs this off season for a bundle of prospects. While Garza has put together back to back seasons with 200+IP and a sub 4.00 ERA, looks can be deceiving. His FIP in those seasons were 4.17 and 4.42, and that’s with a fantastic Tampa Bay defense backing him up. Another benefit Garza received while with the Rays was Tropicana Field itself. It’s not generally thought of as a great pitcher’s park – even though most seasons it is – but the Trop does do a good job of keeping the ball in the field of play.

Garza has a tendency to give up the long ball away from the Trop as evidenced by his road HR/FB ratios of 12.3% and 11.3%, in contrast to 8.5% at home, over the past two seasons. His FB% has also increased every season since 2007. None of that information is good for a pitcher who will call Wrigley Field home this year. Getting away from the AL East automatically breathes life into Garza’s season, but consider his peripherals come draft day.

A return trip to the Bronx was likely the worst thing that could have happened to Javier Vazquez’s fantasy life. After a fantastic 2009 season for Atlanta in which he posted the highest K/9 and lowest FIP of his career, Vazquez was, and I mean this in the nicest way possible, completely and utterly useless for the Yankees in 2010. His K/9 fell to a 10 year worst of 6.92, his ERA ballooned to 5.32 and BB/9 was an unsightly 3.72. The culprit looks to be a big loss in velocity. Usually sitting at around 90-91 mph, Javy dipped into the 88 mph range and even dipped below that a bit before finishing at a 88.7 mph average. He’s always been more of a fly ball pitcher, and to succeed in doing that you have to miss bats. You’re not going to miss anything at 88 mph.

As Dave Cameron noted, when pitchers experience a decrease in their fastball velocity like Vazquez’s they do not get it back. Vazquez is no longer a young man; the miles he’s put on his arm over his excellent career look to be catching up to him. He’s worth a late, late round gamble in most leagues, as moving from Yankee Stadium to Sun Life Stadium will help any pitcher, but a return trip to the NL may not be enough to get Vazquez back on the right track.


NL OF: Speedsters

With our NL Outfielder rankings published today I thought I’d take a look at three speedsters who are in three distinctly different tiers.

Let’s start from the top and take a look at Shane Victorino. The Flyin Hawaiian’s 2010 campaign was a mixed bag. Yes his home runs, RBI, and stolen bases were improved over 2009, but his batting average, on base percentage, hits, and runs were way down. The increase in power and decrease average and OBP look to be caused by the spike in Victorino’s fly ball rate. In 2009 it was 33.2 percent while in 2010 it jumped to 37.6 percent. That lead to a dip in his line drive percentage – from 21.7 percent in 2009 to 17.4 percent last year. The more fly balls Victorino hits the more outs he’s going to generate. He’s not a power hitter, so while the increase in home runs is nice, his value lies in his ability to hit for average, score runs, and steal bases. His BABIP was also low last season (.273), but that too be tied to the increase of fly balls hit. The loss of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley’s injury concerns may have a negative impact on Victorino’s run totals – it’s going to be harder for him to get back to scoring 100 runs a season.  If Victorino can get back to slapping the ball around the field instead of popping it up for outs, he has a good chance of regaining fantasy value in the categories you rely on him most.

Next on our list are two players similar enough that I’m going to lump them together for the sake of this post, even though their skill sets are just different enough to separate them in our tiers. Michael Bourn and Nyjer Morgan derive their fantasy value entirely from their speed. If they didn’t steal 30+ bases a year there’s no way in the world they’d be owned in any league, ever. It just so happens that Bourn has stolen 61 and 52 bases over the past two seasons, making him an extremely valuable asset. He’s one of the few players who can win you an entire category for you in any given week. A strikeout rate under 20 percent would be a welcomed addition to Bourn’s game as it would get him on base to steal more, but that’s not likely to happen. As long as he keeps his ground ball rate in the high 50 percent range he’ll be able to use his speed to his advantage, keeping his average in a respectable range (career .263) in the process.

Nyjer Morgan is in a tier below Bourn because his stolen base totals aren’t quite as high and his behavioral issues are a concern. People may look at his .253 average last season and not think Morgan is worth much as a draft pick. A closer look reveals he was actually pretty unlucky last season, even though his BABIP was a respectable .304. It was no lower than .355 in his three seasons prior. Unlike Victorino, his batted ball rates were pretty much in line with his career norms so there isn’t a noticeable reason for the decline in BABIP. Fantasy owners can expect a regression upward, back to roughly .300 batting average this season. A .290-.300 hitter with 30+ steals isn’t easy to find. If Morgan can keep himself out of trouble he can be an asset in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.


Closer Openings: Seattle and Tampa Bay

Instead of talking about established closers, or fresh faces being handed the closer role,  today we’re going to touch on two situations where the back end bullpen situation is unclear.

The Seattle Mariners are not going to win many games this year. That much is clear. What isn’t clear is who is going to be racking up the saves in the games they do happen to win now that incumbent closer David Aardsma will not be fully recovered from hip surgery to start the season. Spring training had just started so nothing is set in stone just yet, but the leader in the clubhouse looks to be Brandon League. According to USA Today that is who Manager Eric Wedge is learning toward. The soon to be 28-year-old League filled in for Aardsma at the end of last season to middling success. He has mostly been a set up man in his career, lacking the swing and miss stuff and most closers thrive on. While League’s possesses a fastball in the mid 90’s  his career K/9 is just 6.72. His main skill is inducing ground balls (career 62.2%) thanks in large part to an excellent circle-change up and cutter. David Aardsma will likely regain the closers role when he returns from the DL so that the Mariners can showcase him for a potential trade at the deadline. Until then – and likely after – League should garner a majority of the save opportunities, albeit without the strikeouts you’d prefer.

As opposed to the Mariners, the Tampa Bay Rays figure to win their share of games in the 2011 season. Unfortunately for them, and any fan of the team, they’ll have to do so without Rafael Soriano. Last season Soriano lead the American League with 45 saves, or just eight less than main contenders for Tampa Bay’s bullpen (Farnsworth, McGee, Cruz, Howell, Sonnanstine, Peralta, Russell) have combined in their careers. The youngest member of that group, and owner of zeros career saves, is left hander Jake McGee, and he’s the one who seems to be the favorite to land the role of closer. Rays’ Manager Joe Maddon certainly isn’t opposed to the closer-by-committee approach, but as much of a free thinker as he is, he would certainly prefer some structure. McGee wants to close for the Rays and has made his feelings known publicly. 2009 saves leader J.P. Howell will be sidelined for at least the first month, and Maddon prefers to use him as a rover anyway. That just leaves Kyle Farnsworth for McGee to beat out, which shouldn’t be hard considering his struggles against lefties and fly ball tendencies.

McGee can handle both left handed and right handed batters due to his excellent control of his fastball. Unlike League, he’s going to strike out hitters as evidenced by him having K/9 of  less than 10.00 only one time at any professional level. Of the 81 pitches McGee threw at the major league level last season 73 were fastballs, yet he garnered a 39% whiff rate on the pitch. The Rays have a soft schedule to open the season, which should provide McGee with plenty of opportunities to lock down the closers job for the rest of the season.


2011 Player Rankings: Shortstops

 The 2011 class of shortstops is fortunate enough to have two of the most coveted players in fantasy baseball at the very top. It’s also unfortunate to be stocked full of mediocrity and uncertainty after that.

The follow is a list of the top shortstop options this season as complied by all of the RotoGraphs authors.

Tier 1:
Hanley Ramirez
Troy Tulowitzki

No surprises here. The kind of production these two provide from a generally weak position is what owners pay top dollar for. Few players in baseball, at any position, can match their overall talents. They shouldn’t go ahead of Albert Pujols, but a real case can be made for taking either number two in your draft.

Tier 2:
Jose Reyes
Derek Jeter
Alexei Ramirez
Stephen Drew
Jimmy Rollins

In past seasons Reyes and Jeter could make a case for Tier 1, but that time seems to have passed. Jeter’s counting stats should still be valuable, and Reyes will continue to steal bases if finally healthy. Ramirez has apparently bulked up a bit this offseason which will hopefully help his home run totals get into the 20-25 range again. Drew and Rollins are both very balanced players, contributing in any number of categories.

Tier 3:
Elvis Andrus
Starlin Castro
Ian Desmond
Yunel Escobar
Rafael Furcal
Asdrubal Cabrera

The younger players seemed to have fallen into this tier. Andrus, Castro, and Desmond could each end up in the second tier by years end. Andrus because of his steals, Castro because of his average, and Desmond because of his power. Furcal is Furcal, he’s been a steady producer at the position for years and years. Escobar seemed to come back to life a bit in Toronto. He’ll never run much, but should provide you with a decent average and double digit power.

Tier 4:
Alcides Escobar
Miguel Tejada
Jhonny Peralta
J.J. Hardy
Erick Aybar
Ryan Theriot
Juan Uribe
Jason Bartlett
Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Cliff Pennington
Reid Brignac
Marco Scutaro

Lots to go on here. Escobar’s value is going to rely on how many bases he steals. The Royals seems set on giving him the job, but if his OBP is under .300 as it was last season I don’t see him lasting the entire season. J.J. Hardy is a nice sleeper candidate. He’s not far removed from a very nice season and gets to play in a great hitters park in Baltimore. You’ll find power numbers from Uribe but little else, while Brignac provides sneaky double digit home run potential.

The rest:
Alex Gonzalez
Yuniesky Betancourt

Jed Lowrie
Clint Barmes
Alexi Casilla
Orlando Cabrera
Edgar Renteria
Ronny Cedeno
Omar Infante
Mike Aviles

The biggest wild card here to me is Jed Lowrie. The value you assess him all depends on how much playing time you think he gets. He hit nine homers in under 200 ABs last season, but couldn’t stay healthy. Personally, and other RG writers agree, I think he ends up playing more than Scutaro. The rest should only be owned in the deepest of leagues, otherwise they’re waiver wire fodder for a rainy day.

Please discuss the rankings in the comments if you’d like. I’ll try and get to as many questions as I can.