Matthew Dewoskin and I are the hosts of the Field of Streams podcast that runs here Monday through Friday at RotoGraphs during the season, but we wanted to get in on the excitement that is Bold Predictions for the first time. We went halfsies though, so you get five from each of us.
1. Matt: Bud Norris will out earn every other Braves starter.
What this pick boils down to is Bud Norris will have a better year than Julio Teheran, which isn’t nearly as farfetched as their ages and draft status make it seem.
Norris has spent the majority of his career pitching for the Astros in full rebuild-mode, and the Baltimore Orioles. The same Orioles that have to face the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays about 752 times every season. Norris has maintained his 93 MPH+ velocity into his early thirties, and now gets to face a pitchers’ spot and contend with the Marlins, Phillies, Mets and Nats. Norris has maintained a K/9 in the 7.5 range with a BB/9 in the 2.80-3.4 range for the past several years, while his GB% has increased every season since 2012. This adds up to a pitcher capable of posting quality numbers, but his situation had more to do with his mediocre results.
Teheran is coming off the worst season of his young career with 4.04 ERA with a 3.27 BB/9, but, more disturbingly, he’s coming off a season in which he threw his slider 23.2% of the time. On it’s own heavy slider usage isn’t necessarily a red flag, but combining his pitch mix with the drop in velocity and poor performance, it should raise a few eyebrows.
Teheran should be a stay away unless he comes at a steep discount, but Norris is worth a late round flyer for fantasy GMs looking to round out a pitching staff.
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