Author Archive

Morgan and Gordon: Waiver Wire

Nyjer Morgan (Yahoo: 18 percent, ESPN: 19 percent owned)

There are plenty of players out there who are known more for their antics than for their production, and Morgan may well be one of them, but when his alter egos have alter egos, it’s hard to blame people for failing to dig deeper than that. However, if you’re one of the people who follow T-Plush on twitter, but not in the box score, you’re missing out.

Morgan is wrapping up a career year and has become a much better rounded player than he was in previous seasons. He’s stolen far fewer bases than in the past — just 12 this season compared to 42 in 2009 and 34 in 2010 — but he’s supplementing the steals he is getting with a .313 BA and a career best 4 HR. While his 12 steals are something of a low water mark, he has grabbed six since in the last three weeks, so there is some concrete hope that he’ll be a bigger asset in that category going forward.

While the return of Carlos Gomez could spell reduced time for Morgan, I’m less than concerned. Morgan isn’t a huge defensive liability, so the switch from Gomez to him isn’t a simple defense for offense trade; it’s a big step down at the plate for a small gain in the field. I could see Gomez stealing a few PAs a week as a late-inning defensive replacement, but the Brewers would be foolish to put the two in a straight platoon.

Dee Gordon (Yahoo: 9 percent owned, ESPN: 14 percent owned)

September call-ups are a mixed bag as far as fantasy goes, some of the players called up are worth a speculative grab, others are like ackee: toxically unripe. Though he is a rookie, Gordon isn’t a September callup in the traditional sense; his return to the Dodgers was from the disabled list, not from Albuquerque. He certainly looks healthy once again as in the six games since he returned from the DL, Gordon has 12 hits and boasts a line of .462/.462/.615.

At this point in the month, anything said about a player like Gordon should set off huge bells in your mind because of the sample size. His overall 2011 line of .277/.288/.336 is probably closer to his real talent level, but that doesn’t mean that Gordon isn’t worth your time. While his performance at the plate makes him a prime candidate for regression, his performance on the basepaths is intriguing. He’s already swiped four bags since Sept. 1, a trait, unlike his batting average, which is confirmed by his previous time in the majors.

The Dodgers are clearly keen on utilizing Gordon’s speed, as well they should be, and he should get plenty of chances to steal from the leadoff position. While he’ll have fewer opportunities as his on-base percentage rejoins reality, it seems likely that Gordon will still rack up a decent total for the rest of the month, provided he continues to get the green light.

If you need stolen bases badly, Gordon is likely to outperform Morgan. However, if you’re looking to replace an ineffective or injured player, I’d rather grab Morgan, whose production across categories seems more likely to stick around past the next week than Gordon’s does.


NL Starting Pitcher Ranks

The second — and last — regular season edition of the NL Starting Pitcher ranks is here. The top remains largely the same, but the bottom has changed quite a bit. The rankings are for the rest of the season — hence no Jordan Zimmermann — and are tiered to AFI’s top 100 film villains with a few of my favorites thrown in.

The Dr. Hannibal Lector Tier
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels
Tim Lincecum

The best of the best, these pitchers have anchored real and fantasy rotations all year long. The Phillies haven’t said anything about skipping starts to keep Halladay et al. fresh for the postseason, but the possibility of that does make me a tick nervous. The fact that none of their trio is a particularly young arm bodes well for owners.

The Darth Vader Tier
Madison Bumgarner
Matt Cain
Ian Kennedy
Matt Garza
Daniel Hudson

There’s no such concern about skipping starts in this group. The West is the NL’s closest divisional race and until the gap widens, both the Diamondbacks and Giants are going to putting their best team out there, youngish starters included. Garza owns a top-10 WAR and a top-3 K-rate, yet I can’t help but feel he’s been largely forgotten this season; he could be a bargain on draft day next year.

The Sauron Tier
Zack Greinke
Tim Hudson
Stephen Strasburg
Brandon Beachy
Yovani Gallardo

Strasburg looked fantastic on Tuesday, but the Nats haven’t thrown off the reins just yet. He’d be higher, but pitch counts will hurt his ability to get wins and could make for a bad line if he has one really rough inning. Greinke is still giving up more runs than it looks like he ought to be, but the majority of his remaining starts look to be at Miller Park, where he’s been nearly unbeatable. I may be a bit bullish on Beachy, but his strikeout numbers have been good and, as one of the few healthy arms the Braves had right now, they aren’t going to clip his innings.

The HAL 9000 Tier
Roy Oswalt
Johnny Cueto
Chris Carpenter
Mat Latos
Javier Vazquez

Oswalt makes the big jump here, proving that he’s healthy and effective in returning from his back injury. Cueto’s WHIP and ERA both went up in August, but his strikeouts rose as well, so he doesn’t drop as far as he might have. Vazquez is obviously the wild card here, but he had a fantastic August and those strikeout numbers are for real.

The Harry Lime Tier
Vance Worley
Cory Luebke
Shaun Marcum
Ryan Dempster
Anibal Sanchez

Worley hasn’t lost time since Oswalt’s return, and he’s the least likely of the Phillies starters to be skipped during the playoff prep, unless they’re going to try to transition him into a bullpen role for the playoffs; it’s something to keep an eye on. Luebke could be a tier up, but I’m worried about fatigue with him. He’s walking more batters than he did in July and while I still like him, it’s enough to just tip him one run lower.

The Joker Tier
Hiroki Kuroda
Edwin Jackson
Chad Billingsley
Tim Stauffer
Ricky Nolasco

Apart from his shelling on Aug. 3, Jackson has been pitching well for the Cardinals, dropping his ERA in six consecutive starts. I must confess, I thought a move to the NL would do his strikeout numbers some good, but it hasn’t helped as much as I’d hoped. Nolasco seems to be fading as the season wraps up; he’s still performing passably, but he’s been pretty pedestrian of late.

The Auric Goldfinger Tier
Wandy Rodriguez
Ryan Vogelsong
Kyle Lohse
R.A. Dickey
John Lannan

Rodriguez had an up-and-down month of August, but his lows weren’t terrible and he posted solid strikeouts while staying Houston. Vogelsong’s calling card was his low ERA, which rose a bit in August. He’s still turning in solid outings, but he’s no longer as compelling as he was a month ago. As much as I love the knuckleballer, Dickey scares me. He had a strong August, it must be said, but I’m stuck feeling like the other shoe is going to drop.

The Agent Smith Tier
Ted Lilly
Josh Collmenter
Randy Wells
Jaime Garcia
Chris Narveson

After what has been a rough year for Wells, he turned it on August and had a solid month. He’s still allowing far too many HR and striking out too few to rise much higher than this, but if you’re digging deep, he’s been playable of late. I’ve mentioned my expectation that both Lilly and Garcia will regress already and I’m sticking by that.

The Hans Gruber Tier
Aaron Harang
Dillon Gee
Jhoulys Chacin
Derek Lowe
Henry Sosa

Chacin has already surpassed his career high in innings, and doesn’t show signs of slowing down, which concerns me not only for the end of this year, but also for next year. I’d be higher on Lowe — and more tolerant of his poorer turns — if he was going deeper in his starts. As it is, there’s just too little upside with him to make it worth sweating through starts like he had on Monday. Gee has been ebbing and flowing between good and terrible starts, allowing 1, 8, 1, and 6 ER in his last four outings. He provides solid value when he’s good, but the downside is a severe punishment.

The Major General Donald McClintock Tier
Randy Wolf
Mike Leake
Bud Norris
Esmil Rogers

Like Gee, Wolf split his time between great and execrable, but Wolf had fewer strikeouts to soften the blow of his more Mr. Hyde-like outings. The book on Norris in August is the same as it ever was: too many baserunners, too many runs, but a very nice strikeout rate. Expect the same in September from both him and Rogers.

The Wicked Witch of the East Tier
Jonathon Niese
Jair Jurrjens
Johan Santana
Tommy Hanson

I think there’s a fair chance that none of these four pitches in the regular season, which makes them virtually valueless. Unlike the guys below them, there’s at least a chance, so if you’ve got the free DL spot, you can hold on to them and hope. However, if you’re in a roster crunch, you’re probably safe dropping any one of them.

Off the list:
Jordan Zimmermann
Jason Marquis
Livan Hernandez
Carlos Zambrano
Jonathan Sanchez
Paul Maholm

Hernandez and Zimmermann made their exit from the rotation gracefully, Zambrano less so, but most of the rest of these guys fell out of the rankings due to a season-ending injury. If one of these guys is still on your roster in redraft, set them free, they won’t be back this year.


Plouffe and Freese: Waiver Wire

Trevor Plouffe (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent owned)

Though there are leagues out there that do factor in defense in one way or another, fantasy is by and large an offensive game, yet for the majority of the season, Plouffe was untouched in fantasy specifically because of his defense. To clarify, Plouffe had solid numbers in Triple-A this year — .313/.384/.635 with 15 HR in 51 games — yet languished behind Tsuyoshi Nishioka because of extremely inconsistent defensive play. Even when he was recalled, his playing time was sporadic at best, but injuries have forced the Twins into some odd defensive arrangements and opened the door for Plouffe to finally get consistent PAs.

Over the last three weeks, Plouffe has made the most of this new chance, hitting .292/.344/.461 with a pair of home runs even after taking an 0-for-6 in Monday’s doubleheader. His power is showing up more as gap power, rather than over-the-fence power, at the moment but his ISO is still above average thanks to a rising line drive rate, and his SS/2B eligibility make that power all the more appealing. He’s pulling the ball well, so while Target Field has a reputation for keeping home runs in the park, Plouffe shouldn’t suffer too badly; it’s easier to hit a ball out to left field there than it is to right.

Plouffe’s future is still a little hazy, though he has shown improvements on defense, which may give him a leg up in camp next year. AL-Only keeper league players might find it worth their time to keep an eye on him for this month, but unless he sets the world on fire, he’s not going to be handed the 2012 starting job until he wins it next spring. In the short term, he’ll be in the lineup close to every day for the rest of this season, which makes him a viable play if you’re in need of a middle infielder.

David Freese (Yahoo: 43 percent owned, ESPN: 65 percent owned)

A hot month of April had Freese flying off the wire early in the season, but a two-month layoff due to a broken hand has him available once again in many leagues. Since returning from the DL on June 28, Freese has hit a solid .276/.327/.422 with 7 HR from third base, and he’s driving in nearly 20 percent of the runners on base ahead of him, which has given him a good RBI rate.

While he’s producing well enough to be worth adding now, potential owners should take special note of the Cardinals’ weeklong road trip to Pennsylvania that starts next Monday. Freese hits a passable, if reduced, .269/.324/.415 at Busch, but excels on the road by hitting .329/.369/.456 with a fairly even split of his home runs.

If you’ve grabbed him for your bench and really want to pick and choose the games for which you start him, Freese has hit .369/.411/.554 in 73 PAs against lefties so far, while hitting .280/.328/.402 against righties. Generally speaking, playing Freese only against left handed pitching seems like overmanaging; his line against right-handers may be lower, but it isn’t objectively bad. Better to take both sides of the coin than to lose out on some of Freese’s production.


Hannahan and Viciedo: Waiver Wire

Jack Hannahan (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

The months where Joe Mauer isn’t the most productive graduate of Cretin-Derham Hall High School are few and far between, but Hannahan ended the month so hot, the Indians are scrambling to order him flame-retardant pants. For the month, Hannahan hit .420/.491/.660 with three home runs, all of which came after the 29th. Apparently, having a newborn at home is the new market inefficiency.

Assuming that Hannahan hasn’t entered into some Faustian Bargain, there’s virtually no way he’ll continue to have this kind of success. If this were August 1 instead of September 1, I doubt Hannahan even registers on most fantasy players’ radar, but we’re in that part of the season where grabbing the hot hand can seem like a winning idea, and thus, here we are.

He bears all the hallmarks of one ripe for regression — call me a monster if you must, I just don’t think his .514 August BABIP is going to stick around — but it should be noted that his blistering month only pushed his 2011 BABIP up to .305, so he was in line for a stroke of better luck. If you accept that Hannahan had bad luck early in the season, then regressed to the mean rather all at once, then his September production should be something resembling his true talent level. For Hannahan, this makes him a non-factor: his power is spotty at best and his average isn’t much better. If you need a Hail Mary to make it into the playoffs this week, I’d rather wish on Hannahan than Alex Rios, but expecting him to continuing hitting multiple home runs a week is a bridge too far.

Dayan Viciedo (Yahoo: 12 percent owned, ESPN: 12 percent owned)

If, or when, the White Sox miss the playoffs, you won’t have to listen to AM radio in Chicago long before you hear someone say that Adam Dunn is a waste of money and that if the team had just played Viciedo all year, they would have made the playoffs. I’m not ready to go quite that far, but Vicideo’s translated line of .256/.309/.412 is a bit better than Dunn’s .163/.290/.289, so maybe there is some truth in the madness.

ZiPS has Viciedo hitting .266/.299/.453 with 3 HR for the rest of the season, which strikes me as a little low. It would not surprise me to see him hit an extra home run or two and hit closer to .280. At the moment, he holds only 3B eligibility, though I expect that he’ll have qualified as an OF by the end of next week, as he started in right field twice this week.

In the minors this year, Viciedo hit 16 of his 20 home runs off of right-handers as part of his .305/.357/.501 line against them. He wasn’t bad against lefties, hitting. 270/.386/.459 against them, but if you’re desperately looking for the second half of a platoon, you can justify using Viciedo part time to try and capitalize on his power. If you don’t need to platoon him, I wouldn’t bother with finding a partner for him; he’s playable all by his lonesome. With Carlos Quentin’s return still a few days away and with Dunn’s struggles, I see no playing time issues for Viciedo. He may have been called up before September, but as Viciedo is just 22, the Sox almost surely will use the next month to see if they have their starting third baseman for 2012 and beyond.


Milone and Garcia: NL Starting Pitchers

Tom Milone

Starting next week, the Nationals’ rotation will have a distinctly different look than it has for the previous five months. Jordan Zimmermann is done, having provided the Nats with 26 top-class starts. His 3.5 WAR is a team-best for now, unfortunately he won’t have a chance to improve the mark. Instead, he hands the baton to Milone, rather than Brad Peacock, who may not join the rotation at all.

Milone, a 24-year-old product of USC, has risen methodically through the Nationals’ system, a level per year, though he hasn’t garnered much attention from prospect hounds. Baseball America ranked his control as the best of the Nationals’ minor leaguers, but left him off their top 10 list. That should be seen not as an indictment of Milone, but as a reminder of just how good the Nationals could be in the near future.

Milone had a strong season for Triple-A Syracuse, raising his K/9 while dropping both his H/9 and BB/9 compared with his 2010 year at Double-A Harrisburg. In 26 starts, he posted an ERA of 3.22 with a WHIP of 1.03 while striking out nearly a batter per inning. While it goes without saying that most pitchers do better when they keep hitters off base, for Milone, the difference is substantive. His K/9 falls from 10.3 to 7.8 and his WHIP rises from 0.96 to 1.17 when he has runners on, and while he does get some of those strikeouts back with runners in scoring position, his WHIP rises again, up to 1.25.

Given the choice between the two, I’d obviously rather grab the other addition to Nationals’ rotation — you may have heard of him, one Stephen Strasburg — and he’s actually more widely available than I would have guessed: 49 percent of Yahoo leagues and 42 percent of ESPN leagues. I’m interested in seeing if Milone’s control will hold up at this level, but I don’t see him having enough upside to make him worth the gamble in fantasy. A rising walk rate since the All-Star break is of particular concern, especially when paired with his struggles with runners on base.

Jaime Garcia

With a month of the season left to go, Garcia has thrown almost exactly the same number of innings he threw last year with the exact same number of strikeouts in one fewer start. While that parallel is a nice bit of trivia, it also highlights the fact that Garcia has already passed his previous career high in innings pitched with potentially four scheduled starts left, even with his next turn through the rotation being skipped.

The Cardinals haven’t said anything about shutting Garcia down quite yet, but perhaps you ought to think about it. He’s showing serious signs of fatigue already: His strikeouts are down, both absolutely and in terms of K/9; his walks and hits are both up, giving him a WHIP of almost 2.00 this month; and he recorded an out in the sixth inning or later just once in August, making his rising ERA and WHIP all the more painful for head-to-head players. Even if he can keep himself from getting worse, we’re in the part of the fantasy season where one bad start can have unwanted consequences.

If you’re in a position where you are absolutely stuck with Garcia until the season’s dying breath, you can save yourself some heartache by at least benching Garcia on the road. At home, he holds a 2.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP, but Mr. Hyde comes out away from Busch Stadium as his ERA balloons to 4.68 and his WHIP jumps to 1.59.

With the Cards having all but fallen out of the race in the NL Central, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them use Garcia’s spot in the rotation to check out some a young pitcher or two, but even if he isn’t officially shut down, his ability to be a positive contributor to your playoff dreams is limited at this point.


Smith and Damon: Waiver Wire

With the fantasy playoffs nigh, here is a pair of outfielders who can help patch injury-induced holes in your lineup.

Seth Smith (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 53 percent owned)

While Smith has a devoted, vocal following, he doesn’t yet have the widespread name recognition that leads to really high ownership rates. This is good news for owners who need power, as Smith is widely available and is wrapping up a month in which he clubbed 7 HR, which ties him for the 10th most in baseball for the month of August. There’s good news in the fact that Smith isn’t purely a Coors Field mirage — he hits nearly as well on the road as he does at home — but that doesn’t mean Smith is a set-and-forget player. He’s set in a platoon with Eric Young Jr., which keeps him facing righties, and while it means owners need to keep an eye on the Rockies’ lineup, it’s better than having him face lefties on a consistent basis. Like the Rockies, you’ll get the most out of Smith if you pair him with a partner — ideally one with consistent playing time.

The Rockies play more than half of their games at home in September, including 13 of 15 games from September 5th to the 21st, which keeps Smith where he’s been most successful this year for the end of most leagues’ playoffs. If you’re in a league that plays until the dying day of the regular season, Smith does close the season with 10 games on the road, though the first four are against the Astros. Smith is certainly playable on the road, especially in Houston, but utilizing your platoon partner exclusively for the last three days of the season is a wise move, as Smith finishes the year in AT&T Park, a place that has been unkind to him over his career.

Johnny Damon (Yahoo: 42 percent owned, ESPN: 70 percent owned)

The difference between the way Damon began August and the way he has ended it is, somewhat literally, the difference between night and day. Damon’s resurgence began during the second game of the Rays’ August 16th doubleheader against the Red Sox. He entered the nightcap hitting .163/.236/.265 for the month, went 2-for-5 in that game to start an eight-game hitting streak, and has hit .309/.333/.636 with 3 HR since.

Like Smith, Damon is playable at home or on the road, but he, too, is clearly better at one place. Damon has substantially better road rate stats, though his home counting stats are very similar to his away numbers. Still, like Smith, Damon will spend those crucial days in mid-September in his preferred venue as a 10 game road trip takes the Rays to Baltimore, Boston, and New York. While a slog up the eastern seaboard seems like might pose match up problems, Damon has actually played better against the Sox and Yankees than he has against the Orioles.

I’m not terribly concerned that this is a dead cat bounce as Damon was hitting .279/.327/.426 prior to suffering a hand contusion against the Twins on July 6, an injury that lingered longer than expected, though Damon did not land on the disabled list. I see his improvement since then less as resurgence and more of an extension of his early season play with an interlude of ineffectiveness between acts. While he’s unlikely to make you forget that Nelson Cruz is languishing on your DL during a playoff chase, Damon is at least a functional stopgap.


Allen and Bourjos: Waiver Wire

Brandon Allen (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 4 percent owned)

Allen’s last two games in New York seem to paint a pretty accurate picture of him as a player. Tuesday night, he crushed two home runs over 400 feet; Wednesday, he struck out three times as part of an 0-for-4 night, seeing a total of 15 pitches.

Though some may call him a puffed-up product of the PCL, Allen’s minor league power numbers are far more than a league-induced mirage. Unless they’ve recently allowed metal bats in the PCL, a .956 OPS over parts of three seasons is still notable, especially since Allen pairs his power with an above-average walk rate, something he has continued to post during his minimal time in the majors. A little like Carlos Pena, Allen is a much better option in OBP leagues than he is in traditional AVG leagues, and a little like Mark Reynolds, if your league penalizes for strikeouts, it’s going to be hard for him to show enough power to overcome that handicap.

I’d like to see a little more of Allen in the AL before I recommend him across the board, but if you can live with him in a platoon situation, that’s a different matter. For his career, Allen has beaten righties like a rented mule, hitting .272/.365/.543 off of them, with 22 of his 44 career hits going for extra bases. Lefties still have the upper hand against Allen, he’s yet to hit a home run off of one, and his overall line is…execrable. .132/.246/.170 to be precise.

If you’re looking for Allen to revitalize a sagging outfield on his own, you’re in for a roller coaster ride. If you can pair him with someone like former teammate Chris Young, who approaches lefties with malice in his heart, that’s a solid solution.

Peter Boujos (Yahoo: 40 percent owned, ESPN: 60 percent owned)

While Allen, Mike Carp, and Casper Wells have all hit well of late out west, it’s hard to imagine anyone being hotter than Bourjos, who has been on quite a tear of late. Prior to Wednesday’s game, Boujos had hit .500/.500/.917 for the previous 7 days, and while he took an 0-for-4, his monthly line is still .359/.405/.667 with a season-best 5 HR.

Like Allen, Bourjos does have a pronounced platoon split, .336/.377/.570 against lefties versus .256/.313/.385 against righties, but unlike Allen, he’s worth playing against both port- and starboard-siders. While the unexpected power outburst is a pleasant surprise, owners can expect a more consistent contribution from Bourjos in the SB column. Unsurprisingly, Bourjos has better luck stealing off of right-handed pitchers — 12 SB in 15 attempts against righties compared to 5 SB in eight attempts against lefties — plus, while he slugs better against lefties, he has actually hit five of his eight home runs off of righties.

Typically, a .250-point OPS split is wide enough to merit a platoon partner if your bench can suffer the strain. However, with Bourjos, better to be thankful that he provides value against any type of pitcher than to risk losing out on his SB potential just because of a lower average. Between the two, I’d rather have Bourjos unless you’ve got a platoon partner to join with Allen. If you’re desperate for power, Allen’s more likely to provide it on anything resembling a consistent basis, but Boujos is a much stronger all-around option.


Lilly and Peacock: NL Starting Pitchers

Ted Lilly

2011 has been unkind to Lilly owners. His last 12 starts in 2010 portended good things going forward — he struck out a batter per inning and posted a WHIP under 1.00 during his time with the Dodgers. 2011 has seen Lilly struggle to put together quality starts consistently, a trait far more maddening than simply being terrible.

He’s still struggling to go deep into ballgames, which exacerbates any base runners and runs he allows, but his last five outings have been consistently survivable, something that couldn’t be said of any other five start stretch of the season. His WHIP this month is the fourth best in the NL at 0.86 and he boasts a top-10 ERA to match. He is winless on the month, having gotten 0,1, and 0 runs of support in his three losses and a no decision in his worst start. If he continues to pitch well, the wins should follow.

It’s tempting to latch onto that WHIP and ERA, and project great things going forward, but Lilly still worries me. His BABIP is has dropped nearly 100 points from where it was in the first half, down to just .204, and he’s been even luckier in August. His BABIP this month is a completely untenable .169 with a 92 percent strand rate to match, which helps explain the sudden stinginess in allowing base runners. His walks are up in the second half, and while he is mitigating that with a higher strikeout rate, those walks will become more costly if the base hits start falling in.

With Cole Hamels joining Tommy Hanson on the disabled list and the potential for contenders to start skipping starts before too long, there’s an added temptation to look at Lilly’s numbers and see effectiveness that just isn’t likely to stick around. While he may cheat regression for another start or two, September isn’t likely to be nearly as favorable to him as August has been.

Brad Peacock

Every start Stephen Strasburg makes is big news as he nears the majors again, and it’s not hard to understand why. Strasburg is in a sweet spot between a large amount of unfulfilled potential and having proven that his stuff will play at the major league level, which generates a lot of coverage. Much further down the minor league chain, Bryce Harper has the new kid shine still on him, plus has a strong personality and gets plenty of coverage because of it.

Between the Nats’ high profile minor leaguers, we have Peacock. Not as heralded as the other two, due in no small part to the fact that he was taken in the 41st round of the 2006 draft. Nevertheless, he has been absolutely fantastic in the minors, posting a K/9 of 11 and a WHIP of 0.97 between Double- and Triple-A this season.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, the Nationals are going to call up Peacock when rosters expand on September 1, which makes him an interesting option for those needing to replace an injured starter. It would be nice to know exactly how he’ll fit into the rotation before picking him up, but the Nats aren’t making that clear just yet. While he hasn’t racked up the double-digit strikeout games the way he did in Double-A, Peacock still frequently sets hitters down by the bunch in Triple-A, and is likely to continue to do so even after he gets promoted again. It will be his third level of the year, so temper expectations accordingly, but given the choice between Peacock and some of the guys getting rostered out of pure necessity right now, I’d rather take my chances than be guaranteed below-average performance.


Tabata and Barney: Waiver Wire

Jose Tabata (Yahoo: 45 percent owned, ESPN: 39 percent owned)

This time of the season, most teams have their core set, and you’re looking to grab the hot hand off the wire. The great equalizer here is when a mid-tier player like Tabata spends an extended amount of time on the disabled list. If he had played all season, he would surely be rostered in more leagues than he is, but 50 days off can tax even the most patient owners, especially in leagues with few DL spots.

It’s been a whole week since Tabata came off the disabled list, so citing his line is almost futile because of the sample, but the fact that he has hits in all seven games in which he’s appeared — and multiple hits in four of the seven — isn’t just a bit of small sample size shenanigans.

Wrist injuries are known to linger, and while Tabata’s contusion was on his hand, there’s always some concern that injuries in that area will affect a hitter’s swing. With his seven game hitting streak, Tabata has effectively assuaged those fears. Will he hit .414/.469/.655 for the remaining six weeks of the season? Sorry, probably not, but if he hits close to his ZiPS ROS projection of .283/.363/.385, that’s certainly positive production from a wire grab this late in the season.

Tabata’s ability to help you in several categories makes him worth immediately rostering in NL-Only and probably in mixed as well, dependent, as always, on league depth. Eno Sarris noted some playing time concerns when Alex Presley rejoins the team later this month, and they’re still very much in play, but with the team having committed to Tabata long-term earlier this week and having long since been lapped in the NL Central race by the Brewers, it’s looking less likely that Tabata will lose too much time going forward.

Darwin Barney (Yahoo: 44 percent owned, ESPN: 57 percent owned)

Replacing Jimmy Rollins during his time on the DL isn’t going to be an easy task. Not only is shortstop one of those chronically shallow positions, but Stephen Drew, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes owners have probably already snapped up the best wire options. Perhaps the best way to replace Rollins is to figure out what categories he was most influential in for your team, and then target that.

Yuniesky Betancourt has 10 home runs and won’t be as big of a drain on your average as Alex Gonzalez might be. Emilio Bonifacio has six steals this month, but is mired in a 0-for-16 streak. Eduardo Nunez has four steals and isn’t quite as offensively inept as Bonifacio at the moment, but his playing time has been reduced to virtually nil with Alex Rodriguez’s return, which makes Bonifacio the better play if you need desperately speed from your SS.

The best all-around play that’s available in about 50 percent of leagues is Darwin Barney, who is technically a 2B, but has SS eligibility in most leagues. He’s having a solid month, hitting .310/.380/.408 with a home run and 2 SB. If you’re uninspired, I can’t blame you, but he’s not going to single-handedly weigh down your average, will swipe you a base or two, and may get driven in at a decent rate if the Cubs offense can stay as active as it has been so far in August. With who else is available, believe me when I say that you could do much worse.

Barney isn’t going to win you your league, but he isn’t likely to cost you a shot at the playoffs either. If he helps you tread water while waiting for an injured SS to come back, you’ve won the day. Keep an eye on the wire as well, as Reyes should be coming off the DL before too long. His owner may drop a better option back into the pool, in which case you can drop Barney and move forward with someone like Yunel Escobar.


Duda and Willingham: Waiver Wire

Lucas Duda (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent owned)

While the Mets likely weren’t planning on having Duda at first for a large portion of their season, that’s the way things have shaken out in Queens. He struggled to make a mark with the inconsistent playing time he got in the early part of the season, but since the Mets have committed to him being in the lineup nearly everyday on July 28, he has rewarded them with a solid line of .288/.364/.500. While that’s a serviceable line, Duda wasn’t providing the power typically associated with first basemen…until August rolled around.

Duda has hit three of his five home runs since August 1, including jacks on back-to-back days, the last of which was a sizable smash in San Diego. It’s this new power that has made him a person of interest, as without it, he’s a decidedly less interesting option. The power first showed up last season, when Duda hit 40 doubles and 23 home runs between Double- and Triple-A, so this year’s outbreak isn’t unprecedented, in fact, Duda hit five home runs in the last 10 games before his call up after having hit only five total in April and May.

It isn’t as though Duda raked all through the minors and is just now getting a chance to do it in the pros. He had shown good doubles power, but the home runs are a relatively new addition, which makes it somewhat harder to predict whether they’re going to persist. His hot month overstates his ability, but 15-20 given a full season of consistent playing time doesn’t seem outlandish. Anything more than about 3 HR a month is a bonus.

His low ownership makes him a possibility in almost any league and while I’d certainly rather have him over someone like Brett Wallace or Adam Kennedy (both owned at the same 5 percent rate as Duda on Yahoo), I’d rather pick up Mike Carp if he’s still available.

Josh Willingham (Yahoo: 34 percent owned, ESPN: 74 percent owned)

Most of the guys investigated in this space are having a strong month so far, but Willingham is something of an exception. He’s playing well enough lately to merit attention, but on the heels of a July where he hit .324/.429/.618, a line of .233/.299/.550 in August seems to pale by comparison. Nevertheless, Willingham is continuing to show good power in the middle of the Athletics’ order, having recorded 9 XBH in 15 games this month.

While his power is certainly playable, that .233 batting average is less inspiring. It isn’t quite Mark Reynolds-esque (Reynolds is 11-for-59 this month, but seven of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, including 4 HR) but it’s ungood enough to worry about. His monthly BABIP is .273, a 50 point drop from his stellar July, due largely to a bloated IFFB% of 27 percent, something that should fall more in line with his career rate of 12 percent sooner rather than later.

That high pop-up rate, as well as a season high strike out rate, and season low walk rate makes it seem as though Willingham is just being a bit too aggressive at the plate. He doesn’t need to overhaul his game, just to be a bit more patient at the plate, and his batting average should rise out of worrisome territory. If you’re in a league that penalizes for strikeouts, however, Willingham may not be the best player to target. This month, he has as many three strikeout games as he does games in which he drew a walk, and that’s a fairly substantial price to pay for the level of production Willingham is likely to give you the rest of the way.