Welcome back to the Bullpen Report, version 2015! A few quick pieces of news, but the main goal of today’s post was to get the grid updated and out there. There will almost certainly be plenty of tuning between now and opening day. We’ll be slowly ramping up activity as the season gets closer and we’ll be back to nightly rundowns soon.

• Sergio Romo battled some shoulder soreness earlier this spring but he has now been cleared to begin pitching in games. The good news? He should be ready for opening day. The bad news? He’s still firmly behind Santiago Casilla in the Giants pecking order. That said, Romo may not be a terrible late round flyer — he’s always gotten by on the strength of an elite slider (not velocity), and while he’s regressed a bit over the last few years, Casilla’s mediocre K% (18-20% over last 3 seasons) puts him squarely in the crosshairs of BABIP “luck.” There’s no controversy now, but Romo is one of the more established guys sitting 2nd on the depth chart. If his shoulder stays attached and he can stay near where he’s been the last few years, it’s easy to envision a scenario where he’s back in the ninth inning for a least a little while this year.

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– Joaquin Benoit is back baby! San Diego’s closer notched his first save since coming off the disabled list. He did it in style, too, pitching a 1-2-3 ninth inning. The righty looked fresh, too, sporting a fastball that sat between 96-98 mph on the gun. While Benoit pitched very well the last few years in Detroit, he’s been reborn in southern California, posting his best peripherals since 2010. He’s under contract for one more year at a reasonable price, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Padres dangle him this offseason or head into 2015 with the 37-year-old as a potential ninth inning option.

– Glen Perkins‘ sub Jared Burton racked up save number three, his first since the Twins’ lefty was shut down for the season. Burton should hold value as a speculative saves play over the last few days of the season but his peripherals have trended south with regression in his strikeout rates and velocity. His BB% has climbed each of the last three years, which clouds his potential redraft value for 2015. Even with Perkins somewhat of a question mark coming off of an arm injury (however minor Minnesota says it is), Burton’s 4.19 SIERA may be a high enough mark to keep him out of the handcuff discussion next season.

– Aaron Sanchez polished off a Mark Buehrle gem for the Jays this evening. The “not judge on Food Network’s Chopped” Sanchez has looked sharp in limited time this season, posting a 1.15 ERA and 2.83 xFIP. Even with the 97 mph fastball, he’s not putting up nice peripherals with gaudy strikeout numbers (only 22% K%, 6% SwStr%). Rather, he’s pitching heavy, inducing grounders on over 65% of the balls put in play against him. He’s likely gone in most keeper/dynasty formats, but is a nice add if he’s somehow available. It’s questionable whether his stuff will every translate to big whiff numbers (minor league K% sat between 22% and 25%), but if the Jays let Casey Janssen walk this year, it’s not inconceivable they’ll consider Sanchez in a late-inning role in 2015.

– Quick hits: Jonathan Papelbon returned after “Crotchgate.” He did give up a double but otherwise escaped unscathed. Ken Giles run was all too brief. Darren O’Day picked up a four-out save. Great news for his owners, but Zach Britton still has this pen on lockdown headed to the postseason. Hector Rondon gave up a couple of hits but managed to escape with his 27th save of the season. 27 saves isn’t bad for someone who could have been had freely at multiple points during the season’s first couple of months.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

-Welp. After just talking about some of Glen Perkins‘ issues last night, word came out this morning that the lefty is dealing with a myriad of issues involving his neck, shoulder, biceps, and elbow. What a laundry list. To make a long story short, the Twins’ closer is out until at least the weekend, and given the team’s situations, seems like a prime candidate to be shut down for the rest of the season.

While Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t tip his hand when asked by reporters who his new closer might be, Read the rest of this entry »

-Not a great night for closers in Detroit. First, Glen Perkins coughed up a 2-0 lead by serving up a three-run tater to J.D. Martinez. Not to be outdone, of course, Detroit’s maligned closer Joe Nathan permitted a couple runs of his own (two hits and a walk) in giving the game right back to the Twinkies.

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-After a 1-1 duel for eight innings, Darren O’Day and David Robertson conspired to take those two runs and double them (and then some!) in the ninth. The sidearming O’Day allowed a towering home run to Brian McCann to originally tilt the balance of power towards New York. The issue was a blip in the radar for O’Day, who owns a fairly sizable split between his 3.29 xFIP and 2.65 SIERA. The difference is whether or not you believe his BABIP suppression is real. xFIP thinks massive regression is due from his .224 mark, but SIERA sees his GB% and infield popup/hit rates and says “there’s some weak contact there.” I tend to think the truth is somewhere in between, making him still a useful cog in holds leagues or just for rate purposes in standard roto.

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– With Greg Holland nursing a sore triceps, Wade Davis got his second save opportunity of the weekend and for the second time he converted. Davis has been one of the more elite setup men in baseball this season, and his 0.71 ERA and 0.82 WHIP have undoubtedly helped fantasy owners, even if he hasn’t been racking up the “SV” all season. Some of the righty’s success has been driven by a low BABIP and high strand rate, but a 38% K% and 14% SwStr% don’t just grow on trees. Even with his success, he’s still only owned in 40% of Yahoo! leagues, meaning he might still be available to help your roto push. It’s worth noting that Holland said earlier on Sunday that he was feeling ready to go, so don’t expect him to be on the sidelines for much longer. While somewhat risky, I’d probably activate him in head-to-head leagues this week. Unfortunately, that’ll push Davis back to a setup role.

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– Casey Janssen may be losing his grip on the ninth inning. For the third time in the last four opportunities, the Jays turned to someone else other than their ninth inning guy… in the ninth inning. Today, Aaron Sanchez notched his second save tossing a scoreless frame (one hit, one strikeout). Manager John Gibbons has said that Sanchez might see more save opportunities going forward, and the right-handed prospect has done nothing to imply he’s not ready for the show, as his 24 inning sample contains a solid whiff rate (27%) and above-average command (4%). Don’t cut Janssen lose just yet, but scoop up the fireballing righty where you can. He may help you in saves, but even if he doesn’t, he should help stabilize those rates as we head into the last few weeks of the fantasy season.

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– We have a committee! Santiago Casilla is no longer the lone dog at the backend of San Francisco’s bullpen, but rather, Sergio Romo will also get some save opportunities. Manager Bruce Bochy was quoted as saying, “I’m going to try to keep these guys fresh… I’m going to try to ham and egg it with those two the rest of the way in the eighth and ninth.” Aside from making fantasy owners think twice about skipping brunch this weekend, Bochy’s comments pave the way for an uptick in Romo’s value and a downturn in Casilla’s. Romo’s peripherals aren’t what they once were, but he and Casilla are neck-and-neck in the xFIP department, so expect both to be useful pieces as co-closers. Hopefully Casilla owners have the roster space to scoop up Romo to take the stress of guessing out of the equation, though.

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– Uh oh. The C-word. No, not that C-word. Committee. That is what Bruce Bochy implied is his new closing situation in San Francisco after Thursday’s game. The Giants skipper apparently considered using his “closer” (Santiago Casilla) in the eighth inning, but thought the matchups favored deposed closer Sergio Romo more. Casilla hasn’t racked up the “BS”s since taking over the job, although he has allowed 5 runs over his last 11 appearances. While his ERA is up since the break, his xFIP remains nearly identical. Read the rest of this entry »

– One night after suffering a nightmare inning against the Red Sox, Casey Janssen got a breather and lefty Brett Cecil was tasked with finishing off a Marcus Stroman win. The goggled reliever was up to the challenge, finishing the eighth and tossing a scoreless ninth (with three strikeouts). The wheels have really come off Janssen after the break, as he now sports a 7.36 ERA and 4.89 xFIP. There are multiple concerns; his strikeout rate has plummeted this year (24% to 15%) and his normally stellar control seems to have evaporated over the last few months after he looked elite in that area earlier this season. His SwStr% is only down a hair in 2014, but his fastball is getting raked to the tune of a 30% LD% (historically, he has been closer to 20% via PitchF/X). His pitch movement looks fine, outside of a little less drop on his changeup, so it seems like Janssen is just struggling to get a feel for where his pitches are going (hence the loud contact and increased walk rates). Regardless, he still has leash in the Toronto bullpen, but a few more bad outings could cause the desperate Jays to turn to Cecil (2.67 xFIP). Roster him if you want to speculate (or handcuff Janssen).

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