• Ugly, ugly, ugly in Milwaukee. The combination of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford gave up six runs between the eighth and ninth innings today (four hits, two walks, two wild pitches) to help Milwaukee blow a 5-2 lead against the Nationals. With K-Rod starting the eighth inning, signs pointed to Axford getting back into the saves mix after throwing five consecutive scoreless outings (5/2 K/BB over 5.1 innings) and he was called upon to attempt to bail out the visibly wild Rodriguez before allowing two of his inherited runners to score in addition to the three he let cross the plate in the ninth. Axford’s 3.14 xFIP paints the picture of a guy unlucky enough to have an unfathomably high 20.0 HR/FB%; although Brewers fans probably take little solace in those results. That said, his FIP (which doesn’t normalize the home run rate, so he’s penalized for all seven dingers he’s given up this season) is still 4.14, a full run lower than his 5.11 ERA. In fact, even with today’s outing, Axford still owns the lowest xFIP on the Brew Crew. Even with that knowledge, Ron Roenicke was pushing a committee as recently as a few days ago, so given today’s events, Kameron Loe (3.60 xFIP, 3.10 over the last thirty days) might be in the running to pitch the ninth while Axford and Rodriguez lick their wounds.

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• Whoa. Did Jim Johnson have a major meltdown or what? Tasked with closing out a 9-8 win at home versus the Athletics, he was rocked for six runs on five hits and a walk. Over his last eight appearences, he’s thrown 6.1 innings with a 2/2 K/BB — good for an 18.47 ERA (pushing his season mark up to 3.71 after it was as low as 0.78 last month). Johnson’s smoke and mirrors act has been mentioned in this column before, but it bears repeating that his K% is only 14.0% and his SwStr% is 6.1%, both well below league-average for late-inning relievers. Johnson’s regression has brought his ERA back in line with his xFIP (3.80) and he figures to pitch to that number going forward (not as good as he was early in the season and not as bad as the last couple weeks). He’s unlikely to be in any imminent danger of losing his job, but Pedro Strop racked up a couple saves earlier this season (and he sports the 1.40 ERA, even though his 3.80 xFIP is identical to Johnson’s) so he’s no stranger to the ninth inning at Camden. Hopefully owners were able to sell him as a top-10 closer when he was way up fantasy leaderboards in May and June.

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• The Brett Myers trade finally went down, with Myers headed off to the South Side in exchange for a couple of minor leaguers and a player to be named later. White Sox general manager Kenny Williams clarified that Myers and his 3.83 xFIP is expected to be a setup man, not the new closer for Chicago. This comes as no surprise, as Robin Ventura has stuck with current closer Addison Reed even though he hasn’t exactly been the model of a shutdown reliever this year (four blown saves and six meltdowns). Reed possesses a solid K% (23.6%) and his 8.3% BB% isn’t awful so he should continue to grow into the position with time. Myers should only be held by owners in need of holds and is droppable in most redraft leagues.

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• Big trade in the bullpen world that became official early this morning. The Astros sent J.A. Happ, Brandon Lyon, and a minor leaguer to Toronto for Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, and a collection of five more players. Obviously, for this column’s sake, the two most important players in the deal are Lyon and Cordero. Lyon (4.07 xFIP) moves from an Astros bullpen where he might have been a closing option in the semi-likely event Brett Myers gets traded to a bullpen where Casey Janssen’s 2.83 xFIP and 13-for-13 conversion rate has a stranglehold on the closing job. Lyon will likely see marginally more holds for a slightly better Blue Jays team, but he’ll move into a far tougher division from an opposing hitter standpoint. Cordero is the far more intriguing piece for fantasy purposes, moving from a team where he was fully blocked from racking up saves to an Astros squad actively looking to move their current closer in Brett Myers. Cordero hasn’t pitched well this season, although a 0.366 BABIP is keeping his ERA (5.77) more than a full run higher than his xFIP (4.64). With Wilton Lopez back from the disabled list, he seems like the favorite for saves if Myers departs Houston, but, coming into the season, Cordero had saved at least 10 games every year since 2002, so even with iffy peripherals, he might get a whiff thanks to prior experience.

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• Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs had a ninth inning to forget in the Bronx this afternoon. After not being used since before the all-star break, the Angels brought Frieri in in a 10-5 game, mostly to give him some late inning work. Soon, Twitter exploded with jokes about “closers who can’t pitch in save situations” as Frieri gave up a single and a pair of walks before getting yanked mid-at bat after throwing a fastball about three feet off the plate to Raul Ibanez. The other half of the Angels closing duo (Downs) came in and fared slightly better, (actually) recording a couple outs, but he also walked a couple and gave up an infield hit off his own glove before Mike Scioscia had enough and called on Kevin Jepsen to induce an Alex Rodriguez pop up to (mercifully) end the ninth. It has been mentioned in this space before, but the one flaw in Frieri’s game this season has been the walks (13.6% BB% coming into today’s game) which explains most of the differential between his ERA (1.42) and his xFIP (3.20). Downs’ problem has generally been a lack of stuff; which was also on display today (failing to put away Curtis Granderson on a handful of fouled-off breaking balls before missing low and away to walk in a run), but his biggest issue (and most uncharacteristic) were his walks this weekend in Yankee Stadium (four walks in the last 1.1 innings after only allowing six in his first 30). Both pitchers are outperforming their peripherals but are probably in no immediate danger of losing their late inning jobs given their performance in the first half. That said, the Angels do have some interesting candidates in LaTroy Hawkins (3.81 xFIP), Jordan Walden (3.91 xFIP, now on the DL) and Jepsen (4.44 xFIP) behind them if their free pass binges persist.

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• Lots of injury bullet points the last couple days. Matt Capps is off the disabled list but will be eased back into the closer role. Capps is still a trade candidate, so don’t drop Jared Burton or Glen Perkins just yet. Surprise, surprise, Frank Francisco suffered a setback in his rehab from a sore oblique. With Bobby Parnell (a potential long-term fit for the Mets) pitching as well as he has (3.10 xFIP, 4.25 K/BB), he could stir up a controversy if Francisco doesn’t make it back soon, even if manager Terry Collins has given Francisco the vote of confidence.

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With the All-Star Break upon us, and the trade deadline getting closer, the Bullpen Report will look a little different over the next few days. Stay along for the ride as we dive into the world of trade rumors and how that might affect some of the bullpens in baseball.

• The Seattle Mariners have been one of the teams constantly coming up in discussions that center around relief pitchers changing teams sometime this month. It’s no surprise, either — at 36-51, they own the worst record in the American League and merely plugging a small leaky hole or two via free agency isn’t going to suddenly make them watertight again. Most of the talk has centered around moving Brandon League, a guy making $5 million in 2012 before hitting free agency for the first time this offseason. While League (career 3.65 xFIP, 4.64 in 2012) and his expiring contract is the obvious choice, could (or should) the Mariners entertain the idea of trading Tom Wilhelmsen as well?

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• Just as Heath Bell looked like he was climbing back into fantasy owners’ good graces, he crumbled faster than the Mrs. Fields cookie I’m gnawing on while sitting on the floor writing this at BWI (surprisingly busy for a Sunday night). While he’s been frustrating for fantasy owners this year, his recent uptick in velocity hasn’t reversed over the past week and his June peripherals (6.0 K/BB, 2.54 xFIP) still were the best of his 2012 season (and it wasn’t even really close). As has been said in numerous Bullpen Reports, he will have a long leash at the back end of the Miami bullpen thanks to his contract, so expect to see him still patrolling the ninth if the immediate aftermath of the all-star break. An interesting wild card that might stir up some trouble for Bell if he continues to regress back to early season form — Juan Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) is eligible to return from his suspension on July 23rd and manager Ozzie Guillen did not rule out the former closer (career 2.6 K/BB, 4.25 xFIP) seeing a few save chances once he returns. I wouldn’t rush to grab Oviedo in shallow leagues given his history of mediocrity outside of 2010, but Bell owners in deeper or NL-only ones might think about handcuffing him during the fantasy lull over the next few days just to cover all their bases (something the Cardinals did against Bell today — hey-o!).

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HI THIS IS JI-

JIM THOME.

Over the weekend, the Phillies did Jim Thome a solid, sending the future Cooperstown resident out to the equivalent of pasture for over-35 power hitters; the American League. The suddenly struggling (although their pythag always implied dark clouds on the horizon) Baltimore Orioles are likely to install Thome as their full-time (or near full-time) designated hitter in search of a bit of power in the middle of a lineup that was much quieter in June than either of the two previous months. Because of his newfound playing time, Thome has become a trendy waiver wire add in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues, but even so, still remains available in a ton of leagues (8% owned in Yahoo leagues and 2.5% on ESPN as of Monday night). Is he worth grabbing?

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• Since we last left you, Heath Bell racked up back-to-back saves versus the floundering (see, it would be funny if this was a Marlins pun) Philadelphia Phillies. Saturday’s involved a little bit of drama (giving up a one-out double to Carlos Ruiz) but Sunday’s was of the one-two-three variety. Bell has quietly gotten his season back on track since a series of meltdowns early in the season, putting up a 2.71 FIP with 22 strikeouts to only seven walks since May 9th. While Bell has shaken off some early season rust, fill-in candidates Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica have suffered through rough Junes, putting up  5.62 and 4.92 xFIPs respectively. Both relievers have had a K/BB quite close to one recently, but for difference reasons; Cishek is walking way too many batters (7.2 BB/9 in June) and Mujica isn’t striking anyone out (2.5 K/9 over the same time frame). Both pitchers should rebound to less mediocre levels, but anyone still holding either of those guys from Bell’s dark days of April should have cut bait a long time ago.

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