• Haven’t said this in a couple months, but, “Heath Bell blew another one.” Ozzie Guillen turned to the big man on Saturday to try and finish off the Nationals; he responded by giving up a solo shot to Jayson Werth. In Bell’s defense, he did strike out the side around the homer. Nothing came across the wire that implied Steve Cishek (12/13 save conversion rate) was unavailable, so this has all the makings of Guillen trying to give his $27 million man another shot at the ninth inning. Bell has actually pitched pretty well since the beginning of June (3.35 xFIP, 3.9 K/BB) but Saturday’s outing still probably left a sour taste in the Marlins’ mouth. Don’t count on him for anything other than the stray save chance from here on out.

Read the rest of this entry »

• He’s human! Aroldis Chapman allowed a three-run shot to Matt Dominguez on Friday night, turning a potential win for the (likely) playoff-bound Reds into a loss to the lowly Astros. The outing absolutely killed Chapman’s peripherals, sending his xFIP soaring to… 1.63. Chapman’s otherworldly fastball velocity has ebbed and flowed a bit this year and is currently on a mini-downward slide, which may be in small part due to the fact that he’s already thrown more innings than he did all of last year (1 1/3 IP up on all levels with a month to go). That said, his xFIP is only up slightly to 2.37 since the start of August — up slightly because he put up a ridiculous -0.18 (yes, negative) in July. No reason to stop riding the Chapman train now.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Alfredo Aceves did not take kindly to Andrew Bailey getting a save on Friday, reportedly tearing off his jersey after the game before storming into Bobby Valentine’s office and demanding to talk with general manager Ben Cherington. The team responded by suspending him for three games (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday). As I talked about in yesterday’s Bullpen Report, Aceves has been skating on thin ice for a while, and may have finally snapped when the guy the BoSox acquired to pitch the ninth inning finally returned from the disabled list. The Sox have not announced that Bailey is the new ninth inning guy (3.42 career xFIP, 76 saves), but with Aceves’ 4.31 xFIP and an underwhelming career 2.6 SD/MD ratio, it seems the writing is on the wall. (Mark Melancon got the save on Sunday with Aceves and Bailey unavailable. He’s been scattered around between high- and low-leverage situations lately, so nothing important to see here.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the first ever UK edition of the Bullpen Report! In honor of this momentous occasion (also known as “the column written while the rest of America sleeps”), bullpens were the opposite of boring last night. Full steam ahead!

Read the rest of this entry »

• Steve Cishek polished off save number nine on Saturday, but not before Marlins fans had to reach for the antacid. Cishek gave up three singles to turn a three-run game into one where Jordan Pacheco came to the plate as the winning run. Luckily (for Miami) Pacheco grounded out, preserving a 6-5 win. Cishek had previously been untouchable since being installed as the new Marlins closer (0.77 ERA, 13/3 K/BB in 11.2 innings since mid-July), so owners shouldn’t panic yet. Yes, Cishek does have unfavorable platoon splits and, yes, the Marlins would surely like their $27 million man (Heath Bell) to do what he’s being paid $9 million a year to do (close games) but — for the time being — the closer job is not up for debate in Miami.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tyler Clippard appears to be back on the wagon. After a couple bumps in the road the last few weeks, he has now turned in four consecutive saves since his last “BS” in Houston on August 6th. Tonight’s outing was a bit shakier than you’d like, as Clippard walked a pair to let Ruben Tejada come to the plate as the go-ahead run with two down in the ninth, but a harmless fly ball to left gave the Nationals another victory. There has been a lot of discussion as to whether Drew Storen could come back in and snatch the ninth inning job back for himself, but the Nationals have to be somewhat concerned with a fastball velocity that still isn’t quite to where it has been in the past. Interestingly, even with the one-plus mile per hour drop, Storen’s SwStr% is up to 11.5% (career average: 9.3%) — unfortunately (for him) his 15.9% BB% is driving a 5.21 xFIP. Storen needs to throw more strikes before he’s a legitimate option to finish games again, so Clippard’s owners should be a bit more relaxed than they might have been a couple weeks ago.

Read the rest of this entry »

• The merry-go-round in the Milwaukee bullpen continues. One night after Jim Henderson allowed Houston to walk off with a win, the Brew Crew came upon a save opportunity and turned to someone other than Henderson, John Axford, and Francisco Rodriguez. Yup, Ron Roenicke turned to righty Kameron Loe to finish off the hapless Astros. Loe’s ninth wasn’t completely clean — he allowed a hit, committed his own error, and threw a wild pitch — but the end result was a scoreless performance. Loe has a pedestrian (for a reliever) 17.9% K%, but his stinginess with providing free passes (6.6% BB%) has helped guide him to an unspectacular, but solid, 3.54 xFIP in 2012. With Axford, Rodriguez, and (AAA) Henderson’s BB% all above 11%, Loe’s strike-throwing ways might be welcome relief at the back end of a messy bullpen. Loe is probably worth a pickup, especially for vultures, but the situation remains so murky and fluid that it’s a bullpen you’ll generally want to stay away from it if you can help it. It’s likely we haven’t seen the last shuffling of deck chairs on this sinking ship before the season ends.

Read the rest of this entry »

• It finally happened. Bob Melvin has (temporarily, at least) removed Ryan Cook from the closer role. Since July 19th, Cook has given up runs in six of his eight appearances leading to a bloated 10.13 ERA over that time frame. Cook’s 4.24 xFIP remains well above his 2.76 ERA and his BB% rate remains one of the worst among qualified relievers. Melvin has left the door open for Cook to regain his job in the ninth if he can make it through a couple clean innings first, but for the time being Grant Balfour (who wrapped up Saturday’s 9-7 win) will get save opportunities. Balfour’s 4.16 xFIP is nearly as uninspiring as Cook’s but he holds a 0.63 ERA since the beginning of June with a solid 15/4 K/BB in 14.1 innings. Sean Doolittle, while a lefty who has hit a bump or two in the road recently, has a 2.43 xFIP and a 5.6 K/BB and also may be a dark horse candidate for saves in the interim but probably would require continued slips by both Cook and Balfour.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Bullpen Report focuses on two guys who fantasy owners have been riding in 2012, but whose peripherals suggest that some of their acts may be smoke and mirrors.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Steve Cishek recorded his sixth save — coming on to retire Danny Espinosa via strikeout after Josh Johnson was unable to finish off a complete game. Ozzie Guillen had stated that he was planning on going with a committee after Heath Bell’s lastest run of implosions but it’s growing clear that Cishek is (at the very least) way out in front of the group. Cishek’s 1.81 ERA makes him out to be a bit better of a pitcher than he actually has been this season (3.93 xFIP) mostly because he probably has a few too many walks on the whole (10.7%). The other major concern with investing in Cishek as a full-time closer remains his platoon splits — the low arm slot righty has a sterling career 0.239 wOBA against right-handed hitters, but has a more pedestrian 0.307 versus lefties (0.349 in 2012). That said, even if these numbers may not imply long-time stability in the closer’s role, it’s pretty obvious that @srSHREK31 has a good enough grip on the majority of save opps that he deserves to be lifted from red-light territory (for now).

Read the rest of this entry »